Well, I was lucky enough to draw the #1 overall pick, so that focused my draft strategy. I decided that having LT made it more important to minimize risk with my early picks, since I had a nice advantage at RB1 already. The scoring in this league is also a bit different than what you might be used to:6 pts per passing TD
.25 PPR for WR/RB
.5 PPR for TE
1.5 per tackle, .75 per assist for LB/CB
2 per tackle, 1 per assist for DL
6 per INT
3.5 per sack for LB, 4 for DB, 5 for DL
to give you an idea of how this plays out (based on 2006 stats):
QBs range from 12 PPG for "the pack" to about 20 for Manning/McNabb (Brees 16.8, Bulger 16.1, Brady 14.5 and so on). 3 of the 10 and 11 of the top 41 overall scorers were QBs.
RBs range from 27 PPG for LT, 21 and change for LJ and SJax, Westbrook 18ish, Gore, Parker 17ish, "the pack" around 11-12. There were 7 RBs in the top 12 scorers, but only 11 in the rest of the top 100.
WRs range from 14 PPG for Harrison and Smith, 4 guys in the 13s, 6 in the 12s, and a decent sized "pack" in the 9-11 range. Only 11 WRs were in the top 100 scorers. Only 25 in the top 200.
TEs range from 16.2 for Gates and 15.7 for Gonzo to 11-12 for the rest of the first tier guys, and then a steep dropoff. Only 12 TEs averaged over 7.5 PPG. Gates was the #10 overall scorer. Gonzo was #20.
DLs range from 16 for Taylor and around 15 for Allen and Kampman, about 10 more guys in the 11-12 range, 8 in the 10s, 7 in the 9s, then a huge pack in the 7-8 range.
LBs range from Ryans, Fletcher, Merriman in the 15s, 4 more in the 14s, 5 in the 13s, and then appx 10 each in the 12s, 11s, and 10s, with a decent sized pack in the 8s and 9s.
DBs were led by Bailey with a shade over 14, Hope and Wilson in the 13s, 8 guys in the 12s, 5 in the 11s, then a HUGE pack in the 9s and 10s.
I set these priorities:Getting one of the top 5 QBs (abandoning my usual strategy of getting VY, because of the 6 pts per TD). I see passing QBs emphasized in this setup.
Getting one of the top 3 TEs, with a hope for Gates at 24. I see TE as the most emphasized position in this setup.
Getting Peppers or Taylor at the 6/7 turn, and getting three of my top 15 DL. I see DL as the most emphasized IDP position.
Throwing a pick at RB2 in my first 10, but otherwise not focusing on it, and instead stocking up on some decent backups late. I would only want to heavily invest in my RB2 if I thought he had a shot to be a top 6-8 kind of guy and give me a big edge, and I figured none of those guys would fall to 24/25.
Getting a very good WR1, and maybe WR2 if the value is right, and otherwise throwing some mid round picks at the position. I see WR as severely deemphasized in this setup, even though we start 3.
Getting ballhawks at DB - an INT is worth the same as a TD! I usually go with Aaron's "slough DB because it is so deep" strategy, but the 6 ppINT swayed me to spend a few early picks on guys I could plug in every week and "fuggedaboutit"
Getting an anchor early for my LB corps, then going with Hawk or Ware as my #2 (undervalued across the board in IDP leagues), and a committee at LB3 that would include at least on new kid on the block like Keiaho, Greenway, Willis.
With all that qualification, here's what I ended up with:
QB
Carson Palmer (2.12)
Steve McNair (18.12)
I would have happily passed on Palmer and taken Gates if he had fallen to the 2/3 turn. He didn't. I suppose I could have Palmer slide and instead gone with an RB (Benson or Ronnie Brown) or a WR2 (Probably Roy Williams) to match with Reggie Wayne, who was my pick at 3.01. I wussed out a bit and took Palmer, because 22 picks is a long time wait and I would have been
if 4 QBs went in that span (and I really thought it was possible in this scoring), and I felt it was important to err on the safe side since I had LT. Palmer was still shaking off rust and dealing with a somewhat porous line last year. I think he's the clear #2 QB this year, and he's also build much sturdier than Brees or Bulger, which is who i would have been looking at at the 4/5 turn. With Palmer I felt I could wait a long time to take a backup (if Palmer goes down, oh well, I wasnt going to invest a high pick on a backup). McNair was one of the last viable backups, and I got him right before a prodigous backup QB run, so I got lucky.
RB
LT (1.01)
DeAngelo Williams (4.12)
Turner (16.12)
DeDe Dorsey (24.12)
Sammy Morris (28.12)
Michael Robinson (29.01)
I know the stud RB purists will hate what I have here, but Im fine with it. I have the SD RB locked up. DeAngelo will be my default #2. I probably should have taken Foster at the 14/15 turn, but I liked what I got there (Brandon Jones and Will Smith) more, and thought he might fall to 16/17, where I would have happily taken him. CAR and SD both have week 7 byes, so yes, Ill be hurting that week. The philosophy of my backup RB crew was: no week 7 byes, some touches even while the starter is healthy, starters that dont have a clear injury record, potent offenses. The potency of SF's offense can be argued, but otherwise, I like what I've got. I think Dorsey is vastly underrated by the fantasy community right now. If there's any offense that you can just "plug and play" an RB with a pulse and expect production, it's Indy's.
WR
Reggie Wayne (3.01)
Brandon Marshall (8.12)
Isaac Bruce (9.01)
Brandon Jones (15.01)
Demetrius Williams (20.12)
Arnaz Battle (21.01)
Derek Hagan (30.12)
Well, I was met with frustration at every turn when it came to WR. Looking back, taking Roy Williams instead of Palmer would have helped a LOT. I wanted Colston at 4.12, he went at 4.10. I wanted Edwards at 6.12, he went at 6.09. In both cases, they were the last WR of a tier, and I didnt see anyone from the next tier that really stood out, especially with the toned down scoring at WR. I felt comfortable with getting 2 of my 3rd tier WRs at the 8/9 turn. I had to choose two of Marshall, Holmes, Berrian, and Bruce. Berrian would have been safer than Marshall, but y'all know the story there. I really didn't think WR was going to be this big a problem with the muted scoring, but everyone drafted as if this was a PPR league or something. I think Jones and Battle are both great sleepers, and I see a 50-75% chance that I can get a startable guy from them week to week. Williams is my favorite deep sleeper at WR this year, he will pass Mason before the year is over. Hagan could pass Booker, we'll see, Greg Bedard (Palm Beach Post) told us on the Audible this coaching staff has really brought out the best in him so far this offseason.
TE
Gonzo (5.01)
Vernon Davis (11.01)
Gonzo was easy in this format. As I said earlier, I wanted Gates, but Borbely sniped him. Heap was a consideration, but Gonzo is an old standby. I wasn't planning on taking a 2nd TE, after all, I had Gonzo, but I was sick of watching Davis fall. I saw him as the last top tier TE, with top 3 upside. I feel strongly that someone is going to want to trade for Gonzo or Davis with the steep dropoff at TE, and honestly, I saw him in the top 50-75 overall in this scoring, so getting him at 121, and as the last of the #1 guys (in my mind at least) was a steal. I also had him way ahead of any QBs WRs and RBs left in value at that point in the draft. I won't be surprised if I end up starting Davis more than Gonzo if I can't trade one.
DL
Julius "Sergeant" Peppers (6.12)
Will Smith (14.12)
John Abraham (19.01)
I achieved my objective here - 3 top end DL (I don't see much I like at DL after 15 or so, at least in scoring like this league where the curve is much steeper). Peppers is a guy I aim for in every IDP league. The first half of last year showed us exactly what he is capable of - #1 overall IDP kind of scoring. I really wanted Osi bad as my #2 at the 12/13 turn, but Jene sniped him at 12.05. If I hadn't taken Davis at 11.01, then the pick would have been Mathis, but I really thought Osi was going to fall after an injury riddled 06. Will Smith is no consolation to scoff at, he's a top notch DL2, with DL1 upside. John Abraham just needs to be healthy for the bye weeks... but he has the potential to be a top 10 player when healthy. I could see myself starting him over Smith some weeks.
LB
London Fletcher-Baker (7.01)
Demarcus Ware (12.12)
Freddy Keiaho (17.01)
Daryl Smith (22.12)
DQwell Jackson (26.12)
Manny Lawson (27.01)
Paris Lenon (31.01)
Fletcher-Baker was a bit of a punt at 7.01. I didnt see any WRs that stood out, I felt we were at the beginning of the long and wide 3rd tier. I could have taken a safer RB2 to pair with DeAngelo like Fred Taylor or Warrick Dunn (or a high risk guy like Kevin Jones), but I expected TE/QB/IDP to start being priorities for everyone, so I thought there was a good chance one would fall to the 8/9 turn. I would have jumped on AJ Hawk at the 10/11 turn, but he went to Wimer at the 9/10 turn, so at that point I was fine with Ware as my LB2. He was #20 on a PPG basis last year, that should only improve in the attack based Wade Philips defense. After that I was fine with biding my time, because I felt I only had one everyweek starter to fill. Keiaho will be the guy, but if he doesnt step up, my crew of youngsters all have high upside and good roles. I toyed with the idea of going with 3 of my first 11 picks at LB to attempt to get LB1s at every position, but I felt good about my ability to uncover value later.
DB
Champ Bailey (10.12)
Charles Tillman (13.01)
Richard Marshall (23.01)
Michael Huff (25.01)
I focused on ballhawks here, and got the king of them all, Champ Bailey. He was #1 in PPG last year among DBs, #2 in 2005 (Tillman was #1). Tillman is a ballhawk not quite on Bailey's level, but he makes up for it by being active in run D. I was always planning on marshall as my DB3 - I wrote the upside for his faceoff if you want the whole story as to why. I took at flier on Huff at my DB4 because I think he can make a huge step this year as a Reed like centerfielder and playmaker, and again, ballhawks are emphasized in this scoring. Overall I am fine with carrying little depth here because of that huge pack on the WW who are fine bye week/injury fill-ins.
So there you have it, lots of safe boring picks early (Palmer, Wayne, Gonzo, Fletcher-Baker, Peppers, Bailey, Tillman, Ware, WSmith). I was really trying to lock in the value of most of my first 15 picks with quality everyweek starters instead of high risk/high rewards guys because I felt LT gave me that luxury. I focused on building a core of guys at every position that I will plug in every week without even pausing, and leaving a couple of positions (RB2, WR3, DB3, LB3) that I could throw some darts at, focus on in free agency, and maybe improve with a trade or two. Last year my team (drafted mainly while I was on painkillers) was one of the best in the league all year, and then flopped in the playoffs (which is generally my fantasy MO).
i like that team alot
) - but I saw the value for stud MLBs and took two at the 4/5 turn IIRC (Zach Thomas, Urlacher). That helped a ton. Also hearing about Chris Hope's role in TEN last year (analagous to Palomalu's in PIT) and getting him with my last pick was probably the SOD.So that was a goal here - get value at LB. ZT is a mainstay for me, but I started with Jason Taylor (my #2 on my list, not my #1 - might have been an error there, but I love both) as the first overall IDP player selected. I share Bloom's opinion that these two are the cream of the crop and getting them is like getting Gates at TE - head and shoulders above the rest of the position, so you have a weekly advantage.Getting Westy via a trade and also his attractive bye (not many other teams share a "5" this year where I want their RBs - CIN, MIN, OAK) which gave me later flexibility in the draft.
- I think you have one of the two or three strongest squads in the league right now :bloomed:
I still remember you Blooming the Eagles last year - thanks....
