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2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

165.65 :thumbup:

Week 9 just lose Smith and Delhomme, what's the word on Holmes?

Week 10 I lose Portis but so do 1,237 other teams that were alive heading into this week. So I suspect many of us will survive without him. Especially as 211 of those have S. Moss.

 
If thefantasystar.com is on the money, I should be the last team alive with the combo of Darren McFadden, Michael Turner, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith. I was tracking the only other remaining team with that combo and it looks like he got ousted, in part, due to the QB combo of Cutler/Romo.

I would just as soon McFadden take a few weeks off to get healthy and take my chances with Turner, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice and Steve Slaton and hope for the best.

 
This was the week I was most worried about (I was also worried about last week due to byes & injury). Last week, I had Romo, MJD, Turner, & DeSean out & managed to score enough. CJ3 & Smith (CAR) lead the way, but Trent Edwards filled in quite nicely for Romo. This week, I had Romo, Forte, Marshall, Jennings, & Scheffler out & it looks like I squeaked by. Smith, Ginn, & CJ3 helped balance out lackluster performances by TEdwards, MJD, & Turner. However, the positions that basically saved me both weeks were my K & D. Lindell/Rams combined for 25 last week & Lindell/Dolphins with 26 this week.

Next week, I have Smith, Bryant Johnson, & maybe Romo out. The only player I won't have in week 10 is Romo. I'm looking fairly good, but a little worried about both weeks. If TEdwards can get me 15-20 each game as well as having a couple players go off both of those weeks, I have a decent shot to make it past week 10. After that, who knows. I just hope I'm healthy. :thumbup:

 
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The 14 Kicker team is out!

I barely made the cut with 142,95

On FantasyStar calculates 144,05 for me.

Anyway, I am still in ;-)

 
Extreme rosters that are still alive...

6 QB's - 2 left

10 RB's - 1 left

12 WR's - 2 left

5 TE's - 1 left

9 K's - 1 left

8 D's - 1 left

1 QB - 13 left

2 RB's - 2 left

3 WR's - 6 left

1 TE - 124 left

1 K - 76 left

1 D - 94 left

I think we'll be saying goodbye to the 2RB's teams in the next 2 weeks. One of them chose LT/Gore, who are both off in week 9. The other chose Portis/Graham, who are both off in week 10.

 
hove said:
I think (i hope actually) but I think that TD by Chris Johnson put me just over the cut line. Wow. Just wow. I thought FOR SURE, I was saying goodbye to everyone tomorrow morning. (fingers crossed)
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142.05 Me :towelwave: me some CJ3.
 
Dirty Weasel said:
Extreme rosters that are still alive...6 QB's - 2 left10 RB's - 1 left12 WR's - 2 left5 TE's - 1 left9 K's - 1 left8 D's - 1 left1 QB - 13 left2 RB's - 2 left3 WR's - 6 left1 TE - 124 left1 K - 76 left1 D - 94 leftI think we'll be saying goodbye to the 2RB's teams in the next 2 weeks. One of them chose LT/Gore, who are both off in week 9. The other chose Portis/Graham, who are both off in week 10.
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While we waive goodbye to 14 kicker guy, we should take note that 9 kicker guy and 8 kicker guy are still, well, kicking.Perhaps these focus teams exploit the positive side of standard deviation, where having a multitude of guys all but guarantees a high outlier in position output. Obviously, these focus teams have to a great job of picking their NON focus players, given the roster investment in kickers for example.I almost made the "weirdo" list with 4 TEs.... :towelwave:
 
FYI...fantasystar rosters are surviving at a rate of 43.8%, compared to 24.6% of the general population. This is a big part of the explanation on why our initial estimate is coming up higher than the Turk's. There is also a bit of a bug that OC can't fix, where anytime a player ends with negative yardage it won't subtract it off his score. As shown this week though, once we can get a correction factor figured in from the pre MNF posting, the final number can still be pretty accurate, even when the initial estimate is pretty far off.

186 fantasystar tracked teams live to compete in week 9! When we get to the last few weeks, I'll see if my schedule allows a revisit of the sample to include the latest entries. For those of you that want to help making this as accurate as possible, please make sure your rosters have exactly 22 players, and that you picked the same guys you have in the FBG site (i.e. Peyton vs Eli, Smith1 vs.Smith2). If most of the entries are valid and contain 22 players out of the gate it will make my task that much easier.

 
cjack said:
I don't know if I'll skate by this week, but if I do, it's nothing short of an early Christmas miracle.With Romo, McFadden and Shockey out or ineffective due to injury, with Peterson, Marshall, Jennings and Minn D on bye, I needed every double digit point scored by Warner, R. Williams, R. Rice, S. Slaton, J. Cotchery, D. Henderson, J. Hill (Jason freakin' Hill even got off the couch to score for me this week) and Lindell. Even Keller chipped in with 9.8.Sitting at 139.35, done for the week.:fingerscrossed:
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Whew! Made the cut by .8, one of the last 50 teams in. Thank you Jason Hill. Most of my bye weeks are over, hopefully I can continue the ride for a couple more weeks.
 
Eliminated by less than a point.

Fungoul.

One Bironas missed FG,

One more catch by ANYONE

man, brutal. My team was no good to begin with but to loose like this, painful.

 
FUBAR said:
165.65 :lmao:Week 9 just lose Smith and Delhomme, what's the word on Holmes?Week 10 I lose Portis but so do 1,237 other teams that were alive heading into this week. So I suspect many of us will survive without him. Especially as 211 of those have S. Moss.
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Week 10 will be brutal for me. I have Portis, S. Moss, and Randle El. And my scrubs have not been scoring much.
 
This is by far the furthest I have ever made it. The last few years it was week 3 and done. After squeaking by week 3 by 5.8 points, week 4 by 0.1 points :lmao: , week 6 by 5.55 points, I was a real juggarnaut this week blowing past the cutoff line by a whopping 10.40 points! My biggest concern is the week Portis is off, but I still have 4 other RBs who produce.

 
Marauder said:
Marauder said:
PatrickT said:
As I mentioned previously, it's really easy to do in Lineup Dominator. I'm actually kind of surprised that more people haven't entered their teams and posted their predicted scores. It could be like subscribers contest Tecmo Bowl.
Click to expand...
Dodds: 145.12nd Opinion: 141.3
Click to expand...
Actual: 183.95
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I've outscored Dodds projections every single week.That's likely because if a player outperforms expectations, it counts, but if they underperform, it usually doesn't.
 
Looks like no Steve Smith for me in Week 9. Wonder how many of the 5000 teams have him on their roster?

 
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Tackling Dummies said:
168.75 and still kicking.
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167.75 and still kicking...QB - Jay Cutler - 14QB - Kurt Warner - 5QB - Matt Ryan - 4RB - Clinton Portis - 33RB - Ryan Grant - 32RB - Ricky Williams - 8RB - Ray Rice - 4RB - Steve Slaton - 1WR - Calvin Johnson - 25WR - Brandon Marshall - 23WR - Steve Smith - 23WR - Ted Ginn - 13WR - Jabar Gaffney - 7WR - Antonio Bryant - 2TE - Todd Heap - 15TE - L.J. Smith - 12TE - Alge Crumpler - 11PK - Nick Folk - 5PK - Nate Kaeding - 4TD - Arizona Cardinals - 3TD - Buffalo Bills - 3TD - Cleveland Browns - 3Still have to get past byes for Portis, Steve Smith (CAR), Bryant, Folk, and Kaeding. :kicksrock:
 
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PatrickT said:
The weekly Lineup Dominator predictions vs reality comparisons:Dodds: 125.82nd Opinion: 131.2Reality: ??BTW, this is not me trying to challenge the site's integrity or anything, I just find it interesting. I have to do something til the games start.
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Reality was 135.35. Sigh, even they knew my team sucked. If only one of White's TDs had gone to CJ3, I wouldn't have to :kicksrock:Well, I guess thru week 7 isn't bad for my first run at this thing. Definitely learned a little strategy for next year.Good luck, all!
 
shims3 said:
Looks like no Steve Smith for me in Week 9. Wonder how many of the 5000 teams have him on their roster?
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:thumbup:I'm one of them...he's counted every week for me since coming back from suspension.His shoes will have to be filled with the likes of Kevin Walter or Nate Washington.
 
Updated after week eight --- Summary of my team (for my information and for you die-hard's entertainment)

Percentages owned not yet updated

QBs - not the norm here and nice balance

McNabb 10.0% owned and 30.1% alive - used four times 82.7 pts ave 20.68

Schaub 20.6% owned and 37.1% alive - used four times 123.5 pts ave 30.88

RBs - traveling with the herd, but like the depth

Clinton Portis 30.9% owned and 53.8% alive - used six times 126.7 pts ave 21.1

DeA Williams 13.6% owned and 40.5% alive - used three times 62.1 pts ave 20.7

Chris Johnson 27.3% owned and 45.5% alive - used five times 96.1 pts ave 19.2

Raster Williams 57.2% owned and 36.9% alive - used once 12.9 pts ave 12.9

Ray Rice 51.1% owned and 36.7% alive - used twice 22.0 pts ave 11.0

Steve Slaton 78.0% owned and 43.7% alive - used four times 80.5 pts ave 20.1

WRs - This line-up has been really strong

Calvin Johnson 32.4% owned and 45.8% alive - used five times 106.7 pts ave 21.3

Sant Holmes 19.9% owned and 33.5% alive - used twice 25.9 pts ave 12.95 - Trouble spot

Bran Marshall 44.5% owned and 52.4% alive - used four times 106.5 pts ave 26.63

Steve Smith 23.1% owned and 48.0% alive - used six times 117.7 pts ave 19.6

Kev Walter 31.2% owned and 47.0% alive - used three times 64.7 pts ave 21.6

DeSe Jackson 30.7% owned and 47.3% alive - used four times 71.1 pts ave 17.78

Anton Bryant 15.6% owned and 51.3% alive - used three times 60.1 pts ave 20.0

TEs - went with the unpopular guys here - This could be trouble

Zach Miller 8.2% owned and 37.4% alive - used six times 67.2 pts ave 11.2

Todd Heap 2.2% owned and 24.3% alive - used twice 16.3 pts ave 8.15

PKs - went with three for insurance

Hanson 25.7% owned and 33.4% alive - used three times 35.0 pts ave 11.67

Lindell 13.7% owned and 34.3% alive - used twice 28.0 pts ave 14.0

Prater 23.6% owned and 38.5% alive - used three times 48.0 pts ave 16.0

DST

Buffalo Bills 30.2% owned and 36.8% alive - used four times 36.0 pts ave 9.0

Arizona Cards 1.9% owned and 33.8% alive - used four times 41.0 pts ave 10.3

Week Nine Byes - S Smith and DeAngelo Williams

Week Ten Byes - Clinton Portis and Antonio Bryant

Nice info on squad depth -----

QB games over 20 not used - three

RB games over 12 not used - five

WR games over 12 not used - four

TE games over 10 not used - NONE

PK games over 10 not used - six

DST games over 10 not used - one

 
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shims3 said:
Looks like no Steve Smith for me in Week 9. Wonder how many of the 5000 teams have him on their roster?
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he is on mine. he, the panthers D, and devery henderson are my byes this week. devery has actually contributed to my score a few times so far.
 
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Funky elimination percentages this week...

QB - The QB that had the lowest elimination % was Matt Leinart, and he didn't even play. Amazingly, the true starter in ARI (Kurt Warner) scores 30.05 points and elimated at a higher rate. Rivers is the 2nd highest scoring QB in week 8, yet he gets eliminated at a higher rate than Jay Cutler (on his bye), Tom Brady, Vince Young, and Jon Kitna (all non-starters). Also, the last remaining Kellen Clemens and Josh McCown owners were cut this week. There is only 1 team left with Chris Redman, but he doubled up with Ryan and also has Brees and Warner. We still have one Damon Huard owner alive, and he has Brady also. Warner is his only other QB, yet his team is pretty good. These are his weeks over the cutoff: 47, 95, 29, 62, 12, 26, 37, 34.

RB - The RB that had the lowest elimination % was Brandon Jackson, and he didn't even play. True, he's only owned by 4 people, but it's not like he was only a buck. Brandon went for $14. Leonard Weaver busts out for 26.90 points in week 8, second only to Westbrook. Surely his survival rate is good, right? After all, he was only $5. Well, here are some expensive studs who had a lower cut rate: Addai, DMac, Selvin, FWP, Forte, Bush, and SJax. None of these guys even played, and were likely the backbones of their teams. All RB's in the contest are still alive for at least 1 team.

WR - The WR's that had the lowest elimination % were Devard Darling and Andre Caldwell. Darling hasn't scored more than 2.1pts since week 1, and I think Caldwell bagged by groceries yesterday. Coles scores 20 points and Cotchery scores 19.20. Their prices are only different by $1. They should be similar in elimination %, right? Wrong! Cotchery - 79%, Coles - 241%. Coles was the 9th best WR this week, and he got eliminated at a higher rate than Brandon Marshall, who was laying on his couch on Sunday. We lost the last Drew Carter owner in week 7. We lost the last Jeff Webb owner this week. Only one Ernest Wilford owner remains, as does one Andre Caldwell owner.

TE - The TE that had the lowest elimination % was Dallas Clark. He was also the highest scoring TE this week. Finally, a stat that makes sense. Overall, the elimination rate for TE's mirrors their week 8 output. Sure, there are some deviations, but nothing compared to QB's, RB's, or WR's. The least owned TE is Antonio Gates, with 16 teams left. He will surely keep his "least owned" title after this week too.

K - Nothing earth-shattering here. The least owned K is Connor Barth, with 6 teams left.

D - Ditto for defenses. The least owned D are the Ravens, with 20 teams left.

 
shims3 said:
Looks like no Steve Smith for me in Week 9. Wonder how many of the 5000 teams have him on their roster?
Click to expand...
I'll be minus Smitty too. Hoping my remaining corps of Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, and Calvin Johnson can tide me over.
 
Dirty Weasel said:
Coles scores 20 points and Cotchery scores 19.20. Their prices are only different by $1. They should be similar in elimination %, right? Wrong! Cotchery - 79%, Coles - 241%. Coles was the 9th best WR this week, and he got eliminated at a higher rate than Brandon Marshall, who was laying on his couch on Sunday.
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that's remarkable
 
Still comfortably alive.

Wondering who out there (non-Brady category, perhaps) has been people's worst buy on their roster?

At $11 I haven't gotten squat out of Sidney Rice after Week 1. However, Braylon Edwards at $36 has only counted toward my score twice. I can't be too hard on Westbrook, but at $54 he has only scored for me four times so far.

Brandon Coutu and Ben Obamanu (both $1) weren't expensive, but have been worthless roster spots since the get-go.

 
ctriopelle said:
Fantasystar final estimate...138.5 I'm sure that late CJ3 TD killed a bunch of teams...got me a win in my league game tho :lmao:
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I dont know if there is any way we could find out, but I wonder how many teams that TD affected in terms of the cut. There seem to be quite a few right around the cut line that have posted in this thread today.
 
Dirty Weasel said:
Funky elimination percentages this week...QB - The QB that had the lowest elimination % was Matt Leinart, and he didn't even play. Amazingly, the true starter in ARI (Kurt Warner) scores 30.05 points and elimated at a higher rate. Rivers is the 2nd highest scoring QB in week 8, yet he gets eliminated at a higher rate than Jay Cutler (on his bye), Tom Brady, Vince Young, and Jon Kitna (all non-starters). Also, the last remaining Kellen Clemens and Josh McCown owners were cut this week. There is only 1 team left with Chris Redman, but he doubled up with Ryan and also has Brees and Warner. We still have one Damon Huard owner alive, and he has Brady also. Warner is his only other QB, yet his team is pretty good. These are his weeks over the cutoff: 47, 95, 29, 62, 12, 26, 37, 34. RB - The RB that had the lowest elimination % was Brandon Jackson, and he didn't even play. True, he's only owned by 4 people, but it's not like he was only a buck. Brandon went for $14. Leonard Weaver busts out for 26.90 points in week 8, second only to Westbrook. Surely his survival rate is good, right? After all, he was only $5. Well, here are some expensive studs who had a lower cut rate: Addai, DMac, Selvin, FWP, Forte, Bush, and SJax. None of these guys even played, and were likely the backbones of their teams. All RB's in the contest are still alive for at least 1 team.WR - The WR's that had the lowest elimination % were Devard Darling and Andre Caldwell. Darling hasn't scored more than 2.1pts since week 1, and I think Caldwell bagged by groceries yesterday. Coles scores 20 points and Cotchery scores 19.20. Their prices are only different by $1. They should be similar in elimination %, right? Wrong! Cotchery - 79%, Coles - 241%. Coles was the 9th best WR this week, and he got eliminated at a higher rate than Brandon Marshall, who was laying on his couch on Sunday. We lost the last Drew Carter owner in week 7. We lost the last Jeff Webb owner this week. Only one Ernest Wilford owner remains, as does one Andre Caldwell owner.TE - The TE that had the lowest elimination % was Dallas Clark. He was also the highest scoring TE this week. Finally, a stat that makes sense. Overall, the elimination rate for TE's mirrors their week 8 output. Sure, there are some deviations, but nothing compared to QB's, RB's, or WR's. The least owned TE is Antonio Gates, with 16 teams left. He will surely keep his "least owned" title after this week too.K - Nothing earth-shattering here. The least owned K is Connor Barth, with 6 teams left.D - Ditto for defenses. The least owned D are the Ravens, with 20 teams left.
Click to expand...
Interesting stats, but Im not sure how surprising they really are.All they really seem to show is that one player will rarely single-handedly push a team over the cut line. Of all the players you mention, only 3 (all RBs by the way) cost more than 10% of a teams cap. Also, many of the players mentioned (Leinart, Jackson, Weaver, Darling, Caldwell, etc.) are all on 13 or fewer rosters each. I dont have a background in statistics, but the fact that a very small or very large percentage of their owners are eliminated in any given week probably isnt correlated of the value of those players.
 
I am still in it (W8: 172.45), breakdown of my team below

% of total points scored (number of players per position) - budget spent per position

15.7% QB(2) - $14

24.5% RB(8) - $109

38.4% WR(6) - $96

08.2% TE(2) - $18

07.1% PK(2) - $3

06.2% DT(2) - $10

Looks like my WR's have been saving me, I picked 2 more RB's (and spent $13 more per that position) and yet my WR's are scoring 14% more of my total points as well as starting more consistently.

(number of weeks started)

QB

(5)Warner - $9

(3)Pennington - $5

RB

(5)Slaton - $1

(4)Turner - $28

(3)JStewart - $21

(3)DWilliams - $15

(2)RWilliams - $8

(2)RRice - $4

(1)SYoung - $21

(0)MoMorris - $11

WR

(6)CaJohnson - $25

(5)AJohnson - $35

(5)Walter - $6

(4)Holmes - $24

(4)Muhammad - $5

(4)Breaston - $1

TE

(4)ZMiller - $15

(4)Fasasno - $3

PK

(6)Prater - $1

(2)Stover - $2

DT

(5)Vikings - $8

(3)Jets - $2

 
Only 2 teams still alive with my combination of:

Jonathan Stewart + DeAngelo Williams + Chad Pennington :unsure:

 
wow! Actually got points from Mark Bradley! That's gotta be a first.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jay Cutler $14 27.85 41.10 24.90 22.65 18.95 22.80 14.20 0.00

Kurt Warner $5 15.45 36.05 20.60 32.60 25.50 22.70 0.00 30.05

Kyle Orton $4 8.50 7.35 25.50 25.95 29.70 20.30 25.95 0.00

Clinton Portis $33 8.40 22.90 15.70 14.50 22.80 26.80 24.80 13.70

Willie Parker $23 31.80 10.50 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Matt Forte $20 21.60 12.80 25.00 11.00 20.10 19.50 14.30 0.00

Ray Rice $4 9.80 0.00 2.10 0.00 0.00 12.20 6.90 11.60

Steve Slaton $1 6.40 0.00 20.40 21.60 22.10 6.60 16.40 13.60

Larry Fitzgerald $35 12.10 21.30 23.90 20.20 24.20 18.90 0.00 18.50

Brandon Marshall $23 0.00 40.60 27.50 19.60 5.50 18.80 14.40 0.00

Steve Smith $23 0.00 0.00 11.00 21.60 15.60 17.20 24.20 28.10

Marvin Harrison $20 15.60 2.60 14.00 0.00 7.20 23.30 3.10 2.20

Andre Davis $3 0.00 0.00 8.00 2.40 1.60 4.80 2.50 0.00

Mark Bradley $1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.80 15.20

Tony Scheffler $16 8.70 27.40 9.20 4.10 12.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

Kevin Boss $9 0.00 0.00 15.60 0.00 3.90 3.90 0.00 15.40

David Martin $1 17.30 7.70 3.60 0.00 4.00 7.60 13.10 5.00

Nate Kaeding $4 6.00 13.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 13.00 2.00 14.00

Robbie Gould $2 11.00 5.00 14.00 8.00 13.00 10.00 14.00 0.00

Jacksonville Jaguars $5 5.00 5.00 11.00 0.00 11.00 6.00 0.00 1.00

Buffalo Bills $3 15.00 6.00 3.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 8.00 3.00

San Francisco 49ers $1 3.00 13.00 8.00 4.00 9.00 8.00 6.00 1.00

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL 162.05 205.20 193.60 167.20 178.20 175.90 158.25 163.15

CUTOFF 112.85 132.60 133.60 138.70 122.20 139.65 121.30 138.55

 
champ9598 said:
Still comfortably alive.Wondering who out there (non-Brady category, perhaps) has been people's worst buy on their roster?At $11 I haven't gotten squat out of Sidney Rice after Week 1. However, Braylon Edwards at $36 has only counted toward my score twice. I can't be too hard on Westbrook, but at $54 he has only scored for me four times so far.Brandon Coutu and Ben Obamanu (both $1) weren't expensive, but have been worthless roster spots since the get-go.
Click to expand...
Fred Taylor at $18 was by far my worst buy.
 
champ9598 said:
Still comfortably alive.Wondering who out there (non-Brady category, perhaps) has been people's worst buy on their roster?At $11 I haven't gotten squat out of Sidney Rice after Week 1. However, Braylon Edwards at $36 has only counted toward my score twice. I can't be too hard on Westbrook, but at $54 he has only scored for me four times so far.Brandon Coutu and Ben Obamanu (both $1) weren't expensive, but have been worthless roster spots since the get-go.
Click to expand...
I still can't believe I picked Julius Jones at $19 and missed out on Slaton. Jones has scored a couple of times but there were alot better buys. I haven't used Mike Furrey yet but thought he might get a bump with the Williams trade. Not so much so far.
 
champ9598 said:
Wondering who out there (non-Brady category, perhaps) has been people's worst buy on their roster?
Click to expand...
Unused: Maurice Morris ($11) Mike Nugent ($1)Used once: Delhomme ($12), Ricky Williams ($8)Really should have used the $19 from the RBs on TEs. I won't fault myself for taking Delhomme, I had no way of knowing Warner would stick around.
 
jdoggydogg said:
champ9598 said:
Still comfortably alive.Wondering who out there (non-Brady category, perhaps) has been people's worst buy on their roster?At $11 I haven't gotten squat out of Sidney Rice after Week 1. However, Braylon Edwards at $36 has only counted toward my score twice. I can't be too hard on Westbrook, but at $54 he has only scored for me four times so far.Brandon Coutu and Ben Obamanu (both $1) weren't expensive, but have been worthless roster spots since the get-go.
Click to expand...
Fred Taylor at $18 was by far my worst buy.
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Mine too.Taylor, Delhomme and Lorenzo Booker are the only 3 who haven't had a counted week for me yet.
 
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