2010 Rookie Draft Picks, Looking Ahead! (1 Viewer)

[mikel2014]

I'm going to make the official RB tier rankings as it pertains to FF. No offense but these are better then anyone on the site could do at this point in time while we don't have much info. I'm assuming McKnight and Murray come out.Top TierJ.Dwyer - can be a total packageR.Mathews - sameTier 2CJ Spiller - won't ever be a goal-line back and isn't near as good between the tackles as 4.24 so please stop comparing him to CJJ Best - Nice weapon, but again not feature back materialTier 3Toby Gerhart - will be a goal-line beast and should garner 10-15 carries a game minimum with the goalline looks. If he gets more on 1st/2nd down could be very solid for FFJ. McKnight - another tweener who won't get gl looks, but a nice weapon ala felix jonesD Murray - nice potential, can run/catch, but is injury prone and doubt he gets gl looksTier 4Royster - pretty much will become a journey man backupect - all the other crapshoots or guys who will vault based on the combine these are the official rankings IMO, i hate to be so concrete but i know more about these guys then 99.9999% of the population.gl to all.obviously some things will change combine/draft time but these are the best rankings out there at the current time.

I was hoping someone would update this, thanks. Is Dez Bryant still a notch above the rest of the WR class or have Benn/Thomas/Gilyard closed the gap?

 

[rabidfireweasel]

I'm going to make the official RB tier rankings as it pertains to FF. No offense but these are better then anyone on the site could do at this point in time while we don't have much info. I'm assuming McKnight and Murray come out.Top TierJ.Dwyer - can be a total packageR.Mathews - sameTier 2CJ Spiller - won't ever be a goal-line back and isn't near as good between the tackles as 4.24 so please stop comparing him to CJJ Best - Nice weapon, but again not feature back materialTier 3Toby Gerhart - will be a goal-line beast and should garner 10-15 carries a game minimum with the goalline looks. If he gets more on 1st/2nd down could be very solid for FFJ. McKnight - another tweener who won't get gl looks, but a nice weapon ala felix jonesD Murray - nice potential, can run/catch, but is injury prone and doubt he gets gl looksTier 4Royster - pretty much will become a journey man backupect - all the other crapshoots or guys who will vault based on the combine these are the official rankings IMO, i hate to be so concrete but i know more about these guys then 99.9999% of the population.gl to all.obviously some things will change combine/draft time but these are the best rankings out there at the current time.

I can't argue with much of this at all. They are, after all, the official rankings of the beerluver.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

I'm going to make the official RB tier rankings as it pertains to FF. No offense but these are better then anyone on the site could do at this point in time while we don't have much info. I'm assuming McKnight and Murray come out.Top TierJ.Dwyer - can be a total packageR.Mathews - sameTier 2CJ Spiller - won't ever be a goal-line back and isn't near as good between the tackles as 4.24 so please stop comparing him to CJJ Best - Nice weapon, but again not feature back materialTier 3Toby Gerhart - will be a goal-line beast and should garner 10-15 carries a game minimum with the goalline looks. If he gets more on 1st/2nd down could be very solid for FFJ. McKnight - another tweener who won't get gl looks, but a nice weapon ala felix jonesD Murray - nice potential, can run/catch, but is injury prone and doubt he gets gl looksTier 4Royster - pretty much will become a journey man backupect - all the other crapshoots or guys who will vault based on the combine these are the official rankings IMO, i hate to be so concrete but i know more about these guys then 99.9999% of the population.gl to all.obviously some things will change combine/draft time but these are the best rankings out there at the current time.

I was hoping someone would update this, thanks. Is Dez Bryant still a notch above the rest of the WR class or have Benn/Thomas/Gilyard closed the gap?

i don't think he's as good as most think he is, he's not in the same class as AJ/Fitz/CJ types due to being a bit of a knucklehead and he's not as talented anyway.Also it's hard to rank Benn due to the offense at illinois. As of now i still have Dez the #1 WR, but it isn't like he's a clear cut above at this point when all factors are considered.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

I'm going to make the official RB tier rankings as it pertains to FF. No offense but these are better then anyone on the site could do at this point in time while we don't have much info. I'm assuming McKnight and Murray come out.Top TierJ.Dwyer - can be a total packageR.Mathews - sameTier 2CJ Spiller - won't ever be a goal-line back and isn't near as good between the tackles as 4.24 so please stop comparing him to CJJ Best - Nice weapon, but again not feature back materialTier 3Toby Gerhart - will be a goal-line beast and should garner 10-15 carries a game minimum with the goalline looks. If he gets more on 1st/2nd down could be very solid for FFJ. McKnight - another tweener who won't get gl looks, but a nice weapon ala felix jonesD Murray - nice potential, can run/catch, but is injury prone and doubt he gets gl looksTier 4Royster - pretty much will become a journey man backupect - all the other crapshoots or guys who will vault based on the combine these are the official rankings IMO, i hate to be so concrete but i know more about these guys then 99.9999% of the population.gl to all.obviously some things will change combine/draft time but these are the best rankings out there at the current time.

I can't argue with much of this at all. They are, after all, the official rankings of the beerluver.

It's very hard to argue with perfection dear weasels. Dwyer is #1 by quite a bit IMO, also he's very young with a lot of room to grow which is scary.

 

[karmarooster]

Excellent discussion in here, FBGs. I've been following the thread for most of the year and paying more attention lately. It seems pretty clear to me that there is a consensus top 5, with a lot of debate with regard to the order of these 5 guys, but the top 5 look pretty set. In no particular order:

Bryant
Dwyer
Spiller
Best
MatthewsI would like to pose a question that is somewhat more general. I know everyone hates an AC post/thread, and I hope that's not how this comes across. This is my first year in Dynasty, and I had a great start. I nailed several picks with young players in our startup draft a year ago and finished first in total points in the league, but lost in the semi-finals this past weekend. The core of my team includes:

QB - Schaub, Stafford, V.Young

RB - CJ, Rice, PThomas, Norwood

WR - Steve Smith x2 (both Carolina and NYG), MSW, Harvin, Meachem, James Jones, Caldwell

TE - Gates

The 12 team league starts 2 RB, 3 WR with .5PPR except TEs get full PPR. We may or may not add a flex in the offseason pending league vote. Due to trades I have the 1.07 pick. As of now, I am comfortable with my RB corps because we only start 2, but if we add a flex I will not be. So my question is this... with mid-to-late first round picks, how do you go about making the decision to draft based on team need or best player available? Again, this is my first year in Dynasty, but it seem to me that you should draft early first rounders based on talent alone, and not concern yourself with team need. But with mid-late picks, does this change? And how is this decision affected by the distance-to-championship consideration? I am certainly close to a championship and appear to be set up well for a while as I have young players almost across the board. Gates and SS are the only older guys and they are only about 30.

I am not familiar with first round prospects outside the top 5, with the exception of Benn. I'm not asking "Who should I draft?" but instead "How do I go about making decisions in this situation?" These are some of the things I have been considering:

Drafting the best RB at 1.07 because that's what my team needs, even though I'm not familiar with potenial players (McKnight? Devine? Blount?)
Hoping that a quality player such as Benn falls to 1.07 and drafting him, even though I don't have a need at WR
Trading my 1.07 with or without Steve Smith Carolina for an established but undervalued RB such as Lynch, Kevin Smith, Slaton, Forte, etc., depending on who would deal. I haven't explored this so I'm not sure what kind of value I could get.
Packaging 1.07 with Steve Smith Carolina to move up to the top 4-5 picks with the intention of grabbing one of the stud RBs. I am fairly certain that Dez Bryant will be drafted at 1.01Since my team is eminently in the 'championship window' now, it seems that option 3 would give me the best chance to win the championship next year. On the other hand, standing pat at 1.07 seems most suitable to a team who is still a bit removed from making a run at the championship.

Thanks for any help in advance, and hopefully this will spur some discussion about dynasty draft general philosophy, and be relevant to others.

 

[broncofan13000]

Excellent discussion in here, FBGs. I've been following the thread for most of the year and paying more attention lately. It seems pretty clear to me that there is a consensus top 5, with a lot of debate with regard to the order of these 5 guys, but the top 5 look pretty set. In no particular order:

Bryant
Dwyer
Spiller
Best
MatthewsI would like to pose a question that is somewhat more general. I know everyone hates an AC post/thread, and I hope that's not how this comes across. This is my first year in Dynasty, and I had a great start. I nailed several picks with young players in our startup draft a year ago and finished first in total points in the league, but lost in the semi-finals this past weekend. The core of my team includes:

QB - Schaub, Stafford, V.Young

RB - CJ, Rice, PThomas, Norwood

WR - Steve Smith x2 (both Carolina and NYG), MSW, Harvin, Meachem, James Jones, Caldwell

TE - Gates

The 12 team league starts 2 RB, 3 WR with .5PPR except TEs get full PPR. We may or may not add a flex in the offseason pending league vote. Due to trades I have the 1.07 pick. As of now, I am comfortable with my RB corps because we only start 2, but if we add a flex I will not be. So my question is this... with mid-to-late first round picks, how do you go about making the decision to draft based on team need or best player available? Again, this is my first year in Dynasty, but it seem to me that you should draft early first rounders based on talent alone, and not concern yourself with team need. But with mid-late picks, does this change? And how is this decision affected by the distance-to-championship consideration? I am certainly close to a championship and appear to be set up well for a while as I have young players almost across the board. Gates and SS are the only older guys and they are only about 30.

I am not familiar with first round prospects outside the top 5, with the exception of Benn. I'm not asking "Who should I draft?" but instead "How do I go about making decisions in this situation?" These are some of the things I have been considering:

Drafting the best RB at 1.07 because that's what my team needs, even though I'm not familiar with potenial players (McKnight? Devine? Blount?)

Hoping that a quality player such as Benn falls to 1.07 and drafting him, even though I don't have a need at WR
Trading my 1.07 with or without Steve Smith Carolina for an established but undervalued RB such as Lynch, Kevin Smith, Slaton, Forte, etc., depending on who would deal. I haven't explored this so I'm not sure what kind of value I could get.
Packaging 1.07 with Steve Smith Carolina to move up to the top 4-5 picks with the intention of grabbing one of the stud RBs. I am fairly certain that Dez Bryant will be drafted at 1.01Since my team is eminently in the 'championship window' now, it seems that option 3 would give me the best chance to win the championship next year. On the other hand, standing pat at 1.07 seems most suitable to a team who is still a bit removed from making a run at the championship.

Thanks for any help in advance, and hopefully this will spur some discussion about dynasty draft general philosophy, and be relevant to others.

This. IMO it would be a mistake to package Smith (car) AND 1.7 to move up to the top of the draft. Way too expensive.

 

[offdee]

Short answer response to Karmarooster...in Dynasty the key is to ALWAYS draft on talent and not really worry about your team needs. Things change so quickly in a dynasty setting that your needs can continually be changing. Stockpile talent and things will eventually start to fall into place.

 

[MAC_32]

Draft BPA, always. Holes can be patched via trades and waivers later. The value this year was at WR and TE, so I took a lot of them in the mid-late portions of my drafts, even though my needs at QB and RB were greater. I feel a lot better having Mike Wallace, Austin Collie, Deon Butler, Jarrett Dillard, James Casey, and Jared Cook on my teams than I would any of the later round RB's and QB's this year. My needs at RB and QB were filled via trades (Chad Henne, Jerome Harrison, Justin Forsett) and waivers (Matt Moore, Jason Snelling).

Basically, acquire good players and the rest will take care of itself.

 

[EBF]

I was hoping someone would update this, thanks. Is Dez Bryant still a notch above the rest of the WR class or have Benn/Thomas/Gilyard closed the gap?

I think so. He's the only one who looks "can't-miss" to me.I tentatively have it:1. Bryant2. Thomas3. Gilyard4. Everyone elseI could see LaFell, Benn, or maybe another name jumping into the discussion. There's a lot of time left. Not all of the juniors/sophs have declared yet and all of the all-star games/workouts are still on the horizon.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Short answer response to Karmarooster...in Dynasty the key is to ALWAYS draft on talent and not really worry about your team needs. Things change so quickly in a dynasty setting that your needs can continually be changing. Stockpile talent and things will eventually start to fall into place.

I've royally screwed up dynasty squads drafting for need or situation instead of talent.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

So my question is this... with mid-to-late first round picks, how do you go about making the decision to draft based on team need or best player available? Again, this is my first year in Dynasty, but it seem to me that you should draft early first rounders based on talent alone, and not concern yourself with team need. But with mid-late picks, does this change?

The mid round picks will likely take longer to contribute so it's even more important to go with talent, as you needs will likely change by the time they're ready.

 

[BigTex]

Really depends on the roster of your roster and how many in your league. My strategy is simple and it works for me. Rounds 1-5 draft talent and in the later rounds draft for need. If you're in a dynasty league (again lots depends) the major talent is off the board anyway.\

:twocents:

Tex

 

[Keeper I dont even know her]

any thoughts on Allen Bradford? Looks like he'll be starting with McKnight out - I've probably seen him on less than 20 plays, but he's impressed me with what I've seen. Good size and power. Can he catch? Block? Does he have a shot in the league?

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I think Dwyer has a chance to be good, depending upon how quickly he can adjust to pro-style sets (lining up 6-7 yards deep instead of 3) and pass protection. I'm not so sure that this will be a seamless transition for him.

Not going to get in the middle of any Dwyer discussions when comparing him to Spiller, Best, and/or Matthews but will say he played in the I-formation pro style offense as a freshman under Chan Gailey and performed well behind T. Choice. It's not foreign to him as if he's been the B-Back for Paul Johnson his whole career.

 

[Chaos Commish]

any thoughts on Allen Bradford? Looks like he'll be starting with McKnight out - I've probably seen him on less than 20 plays, but he's impressed me with what I've seen. Good size and power. Can he catch? Block? Does he have a shot in the league?

I like his prospects. Above I was stirring the pot with McKnight trying to generate discussion based on the possibility that he tests at elite levels. I probably like AB better for the NFL. AB is just a beast, a great kid and a natural leader. He's also just under 6' and 237 pounds and his 40 will probably be 2nd to Dwyer's among the many big backs in this draft. Of course, the current rumor is he and McKnight are staying at SC.

 

[Steed]

Damian Williams probably leaving

http://www.dailybreeze.com/sports/ci_14051517

 

[kremenull]

It just seems like some of his other supporters are so sure he is the best back and very insistent about it, while fans of Spiller or Best or Dwyer readily admit they aren't positive their guy is the best.

Just in the interest of balance... I think Dwyer is the clear #1 RB in the draft and barring something unexpected by Spiller (sub ~4.35) or Best (more than ~200 pounds) at the combine, I think he'll be the first back drafted. The only player with remotely similar measurables in recent times is Stewart - and depending on how much you discount Dwyer's college production because of the offensive system, he's arguably performed better than Stewart.

Spiller clocking a sub 4.35 would not be much of a surprise, at least not to me. And not that I needed confirmation or anything, but after tonight's performance by Stewart (vs. Minnesota), I have a hard time seeing how Dwyer is or will be better than him. That was simply one impressive performance vs a very tough run defense. Kid displayed the whole package - power, vision, great balance and burst, and topped it off with a great TD catch on a high, back-shoulder throw.....I think Dwyer has a chance to be good, depending upon how quickly he can adjust to pro-style sets (lining up 6-7 yards deep instead of 3) and pass protection. I'm not so sure that this will be a seamless transition for him. Of the past couple of draft classes (2008 and 2009) and this upcoming class (2010), I'd rank the bigger, "power" RBs as follows.1. Jonathan Stewart2. Beanie Wells3. Rashard Mendenhall4. Jonathan Dwyer5. Rashard Jennings

Rashard Jennings on that list is laughable.

Why? Because he hasn't received enough PT for you to see what he is capable of? I guess my stance, like always, is let's just see what happens over the course of the next few years.......

 

[kremenull]

Excellent discussion in here, FBGs. I've been following the thread for most of the year and paying more attention lately. It seems pretty clear to me that there is a consensus top 5, with a lot of debate with regard to the order of these 5 guys, but the top 5 look pretty set. In no particular order:

Bryant
Dwyer
Spiller
Best
MatthewsI would like to pose a question that is somewhat more general. I know everyone hates an AC post/thread, and I hope that's not how this comes across. This is my first year in Dynasty, and I had a great start. I nailed several picks with young players in our startup draft a year ago and finished first in total points in the league, but lost in the semi-finals this past weekend. The core of my team includes:

QB - Schaub, Stafford, V.Young

RB - CJ, Rice, PThomas, Norwood

WR - Steve Smith x2 (both Carolina and NYG), MSW, Harvin, Meachem, James Jones, Caldwell

TE - Gates

The 12 team league starts 2 RB, 3 WR with .5PPR except TEs get full PPR. We may or may not add a flex in the offseason pending league vote. Due to trades I have the 1.07 pick. As of now, I am comfortable with my RB corps because we only start 2, but if we add a flex I will not be. So my question is this... with mid-to-late first round picks, how do you go about making the decision to draft based on team need or best player available? Again, this is my first year in Dynasty, but it seem to me that you should draft early first rounders based on talent alone, and not concern yourself with team need. But with mid-late picks, does this change? And how is this decision affected by the distance-to-championship consideration? I am certainly close to a championship and appear to be set up well for a while as I have young players almost across the board. Gates and SS are the only older guys and they are only about 30.

I am not familiar with first round prospects outside the top 5, with the exception of Benn. I'm not asking "Who should I draft?" but instead "How do I go about making decisions in this situation?" These are some of the things I have been considering:

Drafting the best RB at 1.07 because that's what my team needs, even though I'm not familiar with potenial players (McKnight? Devine? Blount?)
Hoping that a quality player such as Benn falls to 1.07 and drafting him, even though I don't have a need at WR
Trading my 1.07 with or without Steve Smith Carolina for an established but undervalued RB such as Lynch, Kevin Smith, Slaton, Forte, etc., depending on who would deal. I haven't explored this so I'm not sure what kind of value I could get.
Packaging 1.07 with Steve Smith Carolina to move up to the top 4-5 picks with the intention of grabbing one of the stud RBs. I am fairly certain that Dez Bryant will be drafted at 1.01Since my team is eminently in the 'championship window' now, it seems that option 3 would give me the best chance to win the championship next year. On the other hand, standing pat at 1.07 seems most suitable to a team who is still a bit removed from making a run at the championship.

Thanks for any help in advance, and hopefully this will spur some discussion about dynasty draft general philosophy, and be relevant to others.

I like this option the best in your particular case. But I would pkg the 1.07 and Pierre to move up to the #2 or #3 selection and draft one of the Top 2-3 RBs in this class, all of which I believe will be better than Pierre. This way, you keep your WR core intact and get an upgrade in Pierre to serve as a great 'flex' option (if applicable) or at worst it adds another very valuable trading piece to your stable.......See the Dynasty Thread for more discussion though as this thread should stay focused on the 2010 class

 

[kremenull]

I think Dwyer has a chance to be good, depending upon how quickly he can adjust to pro-style sets (lining up 6-7 yards deep instead of 3) and pass protection. I'm not so sure that this will be a seamless transition for him.

Not going to get in the middle of any Dwyer discussions when comparing him to Spiller, Best, and/or Matthews but will say he played in the I-formation pro style offense as a freshman under Chan Gailey and performed well behind T. Choice. It's not foreign to him as if he's been the B-Back for Paul Johnson his whole career.

Agreed, it is not foreign to him. But he does have limited reps, which is the key, IMO. It takes repetition to be able to read keys from deeper in the I-formation as it gives a RB a different perspective than what he has been subjected to for approx 3/4 of his college snaps and/or carries. I do believe he has talent, but I'm just making mention of the fact that he lacks experience over the past few seasons in typical NFL sets. Hasn't even run any shotgun. Often, most any RB entering the NFL will have his head spinning in learning all the keys that need to be taken into account with regards to pass-protection as well as running the ball, and this kid will be even further behind than most.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

So what happened to Montario Hardesty? Around the middle of the season the guy was considered pretty much a consensus 1.05-1.06 guy in FF rookie drafts, now here we are a couple months later, in between which he has continued to play well, and he's not even mentionable amongst the top 10?

 

[rabidfireweasel]

So what happened to Montario Hardesty? Around the middle of the season the guy was considered pretty much a consensus 1.05-1.06 guy in FF rookie drafts, now here we are a couple months later, in between which he has continued to play well, and he's not even mentionable amongst the top 10?

I just think the talk has shifted to the top 5 prospects, and he isn't seen by the masses, at this point, as in that tier. I think he is still very much in that 1.6-1.10 mix, and could go higher if people aren't solid on one of the consensus top 5.

 

[EBF]

So what happened to Montario Hardesty? Around the middle of the season the guy was considered pretty much a consensus 1.05-1.06 guy in FF rookie drafts, now here we are a couple months later, in between which he has continued to play well, and he's not even mentionable amongst the top 10?

I just think the talk has shifted to the top 5 prospects, and he isn't seen by the masses, at this point, as in that tier. I think he is still very much in that 1.6-1.10 mix, and could go higher if people aren't solid on one of the consensus top 5.

Yea, I agree with this. If Hardesty was ever a consensus top 6 lock then I must've missed the memo. IMO he has always been a second tier RB who will go somewhere between rounds 2-4. His value will hinge largely on his situation and postseason performance.

 

[beto]

Demaryius Thomas getting a lot of top 5 WR love. I'd never heard of this guy until late this season. Is he Megatron II?

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

It just seems like some of his other supporters are so sure he is the best back and very insistent about it, while fans of Spiller or Best or Dwyer readily admit they aren't positive their guy is the best.

Just in the interest of balance... I think Dwyer is the clear #1 RB in the draft and barring something unexpected by Spiller (sub ~4.35) or Best (more than ~200 pounds) at the combine, I think he'll be the first back drafted. The only player with remotely similar measurables in recent times is Stewart - and depending on how much you discount Dwyer's college production because of the offensive system, he's arguably performed better than Stewart.

Spiller clocking a sub 4.35 would not be much of a surprise, at least not to me. And not that I needed confirmation or anything, but after tonight's performance by Stewart (vs. Minnesota), I have a hard time seeing how Dwyer is or will be better than him. That was simply one impressive performance vs a very tough run defense. Kid displayed the whole package - power, vision, great balance and burst, and topped it off with a great TD catch on a high, back-shoulder throw.....I think Dwyer has a chance to be good, depending upon how quickly he can adjust to pro-style sets (lining up 6-7 yards deep instead of 3) and pass protection. I'm not so sure that this will be a seamless transition for him. Of the past couple of draft classes (2008 and 2009) and this upcoming class (2010), I'd rank the bigger, "power" RBs as follows.1. Jonathan Stewart2. Beanie Wells3. Rashard Mendenhall4. Jonathan Dwyer5. Rashard Jennings

Rashard Jennings on that list is laughable.

Why? Because he hasn't received enough PT for you to see what he is capable of? I guess my stance, like always, is let's just see what happens over the course of the next few years.......

I agree. I believe Jennings could do very well with PT, but that probably won't happen until his rookie contract expires and he moves on to another team. MJD is only 24. He's not as attractive to own if you're not a MJD owner for this reason.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Demaryius Thomas getting a lot of top 5 WR love. I'd never heard of this guy until late this season. Is he Megatron II?

I love this guy. He doesn't get many looks because of the GT offense, so I'm not sure he can run a full route tree or anything. But he's big, strong (with a wicked stiff arm), faster than you may think (although not a speedster), has good hops and really does a great job plucking the ball out of the air. On top of that, he is a great blocker and has a ton of experience doing so. About the only negative is that he seems to lose concentration at times and he has spent most of his time outside the numbers.

 

[offdee]

Demaryius Thomas getting a lot of top 5 WR love. I'd never heard of this guy until late this season. Is he Megatron II?

He's not as gifted as Calvin in the hands and speed department, but he's plenty talented.His game reminds me of Terrell Owens. Big, strong, not a speedster but plenty fast on gameday, not the greatest hands but seems to make a play more often than not when his number is called.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

So what happened to Montario Hardesty? Around the middle of the season the guy was considered pretty much a consensus 1.05-1.06 guy in FF rookie drafts, now here we are a couple months later, in between which he has continued to play well, and he's not even mentionable amongst the top 10?

I just think the talk has shifted to the top 5 prospects, and he isn't seen by the masses, at this point, as in that tier. I think he is still very much in that 1.6-1.10 mix, and could go higher if people aren't solid on one of the consensus top 5.

Yea, I agree with this. If Hardesty was ever a consensus top 6 lock then I must've missed the memo. IMO he has always been a second tier RB who will go somewhere between rounds 2-4. His value will hinge largely on his situation and postseason performance.

He was always talked about as a 2nd-4th round pick in the NFL draft, which would typically put him in that mid first round range in rookie draft discussions, as he was before.Now we've got people listing off RBs all the way down to McKnight, Murray, and Royster who will all fall at LEAST that far in the NFL draft and still no mention of Hardesty.

 

[Hendo]

I think Dwyer has a chance to be good, depending upon how quickly he can adjust to pro-style sets (lining up 6-7 yards deep instead of 3) and pass protection. I'm not so sure that this will be a seamless transition for him.

Not going to get in the middle of any Dwyer discussions when comparing him to Spiller, Best, and/or Matthews but will say he played in the I-formation pro style offense as a freshman under Chan Gailey and performed well behind T. Choice. It's not foreign to him as if he's been the B-Back for Paul Johnson his whole career.

Agreed, it is not foreign to him. But he does have limited reps, which is the key, IMO. It takes repetition to be able to read keys from deeper in the I-formation as it gives a RB a different perspective than what he has been subjected to for approx 3/4 of his college snaps and/or carries. I do believe he has talent, but I'm just making mention of the fact that he lacks experience over the past few seasons in typical NFL sets. Hasn't even run any shotgun. Often, most any RB entering the NFL will have his head spinning in learning all the keys that need to be taken into account with regards to pass-protection as well as running the ball, and this kid will be even further behind than most.

didnt we see the same thing(not enitrely) with Ronnie Brown and Caddy years ago out of Aunurn? I believe Brown lined up in many FB options in that offense unless i am mistaken when Caddy was on the field?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I think Dwyer has a chance to be good, depending upon how quickly he can adjust to pro-style sets (lining up 6-7 yards deep instead of 3) and pass protection. I'm not so sure that this will be a seamless transition for him.

Not going to get in the middle of any Dwyer discussions when comparing him to Spiller, Best, and/or Matthews but will say he played in the I-formation pro style offense as a freshman under Chan Gailey and performed well behind T. Choice. It's not foreign to him as if he's been the B-Back for Paul Johnson his whole career.

Agreed, it is not foreign to him. But he does have limited reps, which is the key, IMO. It takes repetition to be able to read keys from deeper in the I-formation as it gives a RB a different perspective than what he has been subjected to for approx 3/4 of his college snaps and/or carries. I do believe he has talent, but I'm just making mention of the fact that he lacks experience over the past few seasons in typical NFL sets. Hasn't even run any shotgun. Often, most any RB entering the NFL will have his head spinning in learning all the keys that need to be taken into account with regards to pass-protection as well as running the ball, and this kid will be even further behind than most.

didnt we see the same thing(not enitrely) with Ronnie Brown and Caddy years ago out of Aunurn? I believe Brown lined up in many FB options in that offense unless i am mistaken when Caddy was on the field?

He may have done it at times, but he primarily played tailback.

 

[kremenull]

I think Dwyer has a chance to be good, depending upon how quickly he can adjust to pro-style sets (lining up 6-7 yards deep instead of 3) and pass protection. I'm not so sure that this will be a seamless transition for him.

Not going to get in the middle of any Dwyer discussions when comparing him to Spiller, Best, and/or Matthews but will say he played in the I-formation pro style offense as a freshman under Chan Gailey and performed well behind T. Choice. It's not foreign to him as if he's been the B-Back for Paul Johnson his whole career.

Agreed, it is not foreign to him. But he does have limited reps, which is the key, IMO. It takes repetition to be able to read keys from deeper in the I-formation as it gives a RB a different perspective than what he has been subjected to for approx 3/4 of his college snaps and/or carries. I do believe he has talent, but I'm just making mention of the fact that he lacks experience over the past few seasons in typical NFL sets. Hasn't even run any shotgun. Often, most any RB entering the NFL will have his head spinning in learning all the keys that need to be taken into account with regards to pass-protection as well as running the ball, and this kid will be even further behind than most.

didnt we see the same thing(not enitrely) with Ronnie Brown and Caddy years ago out of Aunurn? I believe Brown lined up in many FB options in that offense unless i am mistaken when Caddy was on the field?

Really, it's not a big deal. If the kid is a true "baller", he should be fine. I'm just mentioning it as something to look out for if he doesn't come in and set the world on fire from the outset. If he fails, then I'd suspect that he couldn't really transition to a tailback role. If I had to place my chips on either side, I say that he succeeds.....in the long-term.

 

[VaCatFan]

Short answer response to Karmarooster...in Dynasty the key is to ALWAYS draft on talent and not really worry about your team needs. Things change so quickly in a dynasty setting that your needs can continually be changing. Stockpile talent and things will eventually start to fall into place.

I've royally screwed up dynasty squads drafting for need or situation instead of talent.

I concur. Observe my draft in 03. I selected Chris Brown at 1.03 and Justin Fargas at 1.04 as I needed RB help. These followed:Carson Palmer 1.05Willis McGahee 1.06Andre Johnson 1.08Larry Johnson 1.09Anquan Boldin 2.09Those two picks did me in for the next couple of years. I traded the 04 first to get the 1.03I believe that pick turned out to be Stephen Jackson. Also goes to show you what tradiing away future picks can do to you.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Demaryius Thomas getting a lot of top 5 WR love. I'd never heard of this guy until late this season. Is he Megatron II?

I love this guy. He doesn't get many looks because of the GT offense, so I'm not sure he can run a full route tree or anything. But he's big, strong (with a wicked stiff arm), faster than you may think (although not a speedster), has good hops and really does a great job plucking the ball out of the air. On top of that, he is a great blocker and has a ton of experience doing so. About the only negative is that he seems to lose concentration at times and he has spent most of his time outside the numbers.

I would agree with all of this

 

[footballsavvy]

I have 1.4, 1.9, and 1.11

What is the drop-off this year from 1.1-1.4? I tentatively made a trade that would move 1.4 and 1.9 for 1.1. Is this a mistake? I am 100% certain that Dez Bryant is going pick #2.

Also, if I keep picks 9 and 11 of the 1st round, who would you be targeting at this point in those positions.

Blount, Dixon, Hardesty or a top rated QB?

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I have 1.4, 1.9, and 1.11What is the drop-off this year from 1.1-1.4? I tentatively made a trade that would move 1.4 and 1.9 for 1.1. Is this a mistake? I am 100% certain that Dez Bryant is going pick #2.Also, if I keep picks 9 and 11 of the 1st round, who would you be targeting at this point in those positions.Blount, Dixon, Hardesty or a top rated QB?

If it's a PPR league you may want to trade up to 1.1 and take Bryant yourself.

 

[footballsavvy]

I have 1.4, 1.9, and 1.11What is the drop-off this year from 1.1-1.4? I tentatively made a trade that would move 1.4 and 1.9 for 1.1. Is this a mistake? I am 100% certain that Dez Bryant is going pick #2.Also, if I keep picks 9 and 11 of the 1st round, who would you be targeting at this point in those positions.Blount, Dixon, Hardesty or a top rated QB?

If it's a PPR league you may want to trade up to 1.1 and take Bryant yourself.

It is a PPR league but I have decent WR's:Smith (Car), MSW, Braylon, Pierre Garcon, Aromashadu, Eddie RoyalAt RB I have S-Jax, Maroney, Bradshaw, Donald Brown, Michael Bush, so I am really struggling there. I am planning on purchasing Ray Rice in our FA auction though.

 

[Mark Davis]

I own 1.01 and face a dilema as well as I have a solid WR group. If a RB emerges that is on par with Bryant based on workouts and his situation then I'll have to go that route. I do think though Bryant is a safe 1.01 pick and my league isn't PPR. To trade out of that spot though I'd want to go no lower than 1.05 and get some nice boot in return. The top RB that are all grouped kind of together now should start sorting themselves out after the draft based on where they end up. My guess is we end up with a consensus top 3 or so by then.

What is everyone's take on Spiller? He looked great in the bowl game but again I didn't see a lot of running between the tackles. That doesn't mean he can't be a great pro but I'm afraid he's more like Felix Jones than Chris Johnson.

 

[domvin]

I have 1.4, 1.9, and 1.11What is the drop-off this year from 1.1-1.4? I tentatively made a trade that would move 1.4 and 1.9 for 1.1. Is this a mistake? I am 100% certain that Dez Bryant is going pick #2.Also, if I keep picks 9 and 11 of the 1st round, who would you be targeting at this point in those positions.Blount, Dixon, Hardesty or a top rated QB?

If it's a PPR league you may want to trade up to 1.1 and take Bryant yourself.

It is a PPR league but I have decent WR's:Smith (Car), MSW, Braylon, Pierre Garcon, Aromashadu, Eddie RoyalAt RB I have S-Jax, Maroney, Bradshaw, Donald Brown, Michael Bush, so I am really struggling there. I am planning on purchasing Ray Rice in our FA auction though.

I would not worry too much about the rbs emerging, I think Bradshaw will be a stud, he just needs to be healthy, and i really don't think Jacobs is too much to overcome for him personally. Michael Bush just needs an opportunity. Brown could emerge soon too, I think Addais contract is up after 2010, although need someone to verify that.The time to sell SJAX is probably now. Herniated disks are nothing to screw around with, and I'd fear that his value may plummet once his back flares up.Still, I'd move up and secure Bryant, or you have to hope like heck that Gresham falls to you at 1.9? Not sure of your TE needs?1.4, you'd take what falls to you: Bryant, Dwyer, Spiller, Mathews. Depends on situation they get drafted at, but by then, the 1.1 will be harder to come by....

 

[domvin]

I was hoping someone would update this, thanks. Is Dez Bryant still a notch above the rest of the WR class or have Benn/Thomas/Gilyard closed the gap?

I think so. He's the only one who looks "can't-miss" to me.I tentatively have it:

1. Bryant

2. Thomas

3. Gilyard

4. Everyone else

I could see LaFell, Benn, or maybe another name jumping into the discussion. There's a lot of time left. Not all of the juniors/sophs have declared yet and all of the all-star games/workouts are still on the horizon.

Just using this as a springboard to WRs....Trying to unearth some gemsWhats the take on Jacoby Ford, Clemson? Everytime I have seen him, he's making plays. Perhaps a poor mans 2008 Eddie Royal? Any Clemson homers with an inside take? Small, but pretty fast....

http://clemsontigers.cstv.com/sports/m-foo...d_jacoby00.html

 

[mikel2014]

I have 1.4, 1.9, and 1.11What is the drop-off this year from 1.1-1.4? I tentatively made a trade that would move 1.4 and 1.9 for 1.1. Is this a mistake? I am 100% certain that Dez Bryant is going pick #2.Also, if I keep picks 9 and 11 of the 1st round, who would you be targeting at this point in those positions.Blount, Dixon, Hardesty or a top rated QB?

If it's a PPR league you may want to trade up to 1.1 and take Bryant yourself.

It is a PPR league but I have decent WR's:Smith (Car), MSW, Braylon, Pierre Garcon, Aromashadu, Eddie RoyalAt RB I have S-Jax, Maroney, Bradshaw, Donald Brown, Michael Bush, so I am really struggling there. I am planning on purchasing Ray Rice in our FA auction though.

I would not worry too much about the rbs emerging, I think Bradshaw will be a stud, he just needs to be healthy, and i really don't think Jacobs is too much to overcome for him personally. Michael Bush just needs an opportunity. Brown could emerge soon too, I think Addais contract is up after 2010, although need someone to verify that.The time to sell SJAX is probably now. Herniated disks are nothing to screw around with, and I'd fear that his value may plummet once his back flares up.Still, I'd move up and secure Bryant, or you have to hope like heck that Gresham falls to you at 1.9? Not sure of your TE needs?1.4, you'd take what falls to you: Bryant, Dwyer, Spiller, Mathews. Depends on situation they get drafted at, but by then, the 1.1 will be harder to come by....

I would also throw Best into the mix there. He's a consensus top 5 pick right now. I expect him to go from 1.03-1.06 in nearly every rookie draft.

 

[ty247]

How does everyone feel about the QB's for those of us in Two-QB leagues

Bradford possibly could have gone #1OA last year had he come out but is dropping in the draft rankings this year because of an injury..

Clausen seems to be the favorite as the number 1 QB in the draft.

What's everyone elses opinions?

 

[kremenull]

I own 1.01 and face a dilema as well as I have a solid WR group. If a RB emerges that is on par with Bryant based on workouts and his situation then I'll have to go that route. I do think though Bryant is a safe 1.01 pick and my league isn't PPR. To trade out of that spot though I'd want to go no lower than 1.05 and get some nice boot in return. The top RB that are all grouped kind of together now should start sorting themselves out after the draft based on where they end up. My guess is we end up with a consensus top 3 or so by then. What is everyone's take on Spiller? He looked great in the bowl game but again I didn't see a lot of running between the tackles. That doesn't mean he can't be a great pro but I'm afraid he's more like Felix Jones than Chris Johnson.

Is the book already written that Felix Jones will not be a great pro RB? I haven't read that literary work yet.......All this Bryant sure thing, greatest thing since sliced bread talk is reminiscient of all the hoopla surrounding Sir-Lord-Knight-Prince Crabtree last year.......Not buying at the ultra-hyped price, once again.Is he (Bryant) going to be good? Probably. I'd just temper some of the enthusiasm 'cause I just don't see the extraordinary physical elements to get overly excited about (i.e., he's no Calvin nor Andre nor Moss)........And he will not be as good as Fitz, who is Jerry Rice-like in that you can't always project things like will/desire/work-ethic/professionalism/football IQ (which Fitz and Rice possess at elite levels) into a player's eventual performance.......I may beat this dead horse a few times in the coming months, but as a prospect, Bryant is essentially on par with Braylon entering the league. Same physical stature and comparable measurables/athleticism. One other thing, they both can experience periods of the "dropsies". I would not be the least bit surprised if their careers are pretty similar, although I would hope that Bryant will be at least a bit more consistent than Braylon.

 

[Balco]

How does everyone feel about the QB's for those of us in Two-QB leaguesBradford possibly could have gone #1OA last year had he come out but is dropping in the draft rankings this year because of an injury..Clausen seems to be the favorite as the number 1 QB in the draft.What's everyone elses opinions?

The only question, and it is a big question, about Bradford is the health of his shoulder. He has an elite skill set.

 

[EBF]

That's not the only question about Bradford. He also has terrible mobility.

My friend who played QB usually has a pretty good read on these things. He swears that Bradford is the real deal. Accuracy. Poise. Ridiculous stats. There are shades of Peyton Manning here. He just needs to go to a team that will protect him.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I own 1.01 and face a dilema as well as I have a solid WR group. If a RB emerges that is on par with Bryant based on workouts and his situation then I'll have to go that route. I do think though Bryant is a safe 1.01 pick and my league isn't PPR. To trade out of that spot though I'd want to go no lower than 1.05 and get some nice boot in return. The top RB that are all grouped kind of together now should start sorting themselves out after the draft based on where they end up. My guess is we end up with a consensus top 3 or so by then. What is everyone's take on Spiller? He looked great in the bowl game but again I didn't see a lot of running between the tackles. That doesn't mean he can't be a great pro but I'm afraid he's more like Felix Jones than Chris Johnson.

Is the book already written that Felix Jones will not be a great pro RB? I haven't read that literary work yet.......All this Bryant sure thing, greatest thing since sliced bread talk is reminiscient of all the hoopla surrounding Sir-Lord-Knight-Prince Crabtree last year.......Not buying at the ultra-hyped price, once again.Is he (Bryant) going to be good? Probably. I'd just temper some of the enthusiasm 'cause I just don't see the extraordinary physical elements to get overly excited about (i.e., he's no Calvin nor Andre nor Moss)........And he will not be as good as Fitz, who is Jerry Rice-like in that you can't always project things like will/desire/work-ethic/professionalism/football IQ (which Fitz and Rice possess at elite levels) into a player's eventual performance.......I may beat this dead horse a few times in the coming months, but as a prospect, Bryant is essentially on par with Braylon entering the league. Same physical stature and comparable measurables/athleticism. One other thing, they both can experience periods of the "dropsies". I would not be the least bit surprised if their careers are pretty similar, although I would hope that Bryant will be at least a bit more consistent than Braylon.

This is a good post, Krem. I've hesitated to be critical of Bryant because I haven't seen that much of him, and some of the praise is so high, I figure I must have missed some really great stuff. What I have seen has been impressive, but no moreso than Dwayne Jarrett at SC. He's by no means a lock. I would rather have Sidney Rice than Dez who I would not take 1.01. I would choose the top back with the best situation, leaning towards the two speed guys Best and Spiller. I have no problem taking a WR first in dynasty and understand they tend to have longer shelf lives, but I'm pretty sure the highest I would take Dez in this class is 1.03 and possibly 1.05 behind all four backs, depending on circumstances real and fantasy.

 

[EBF]

As for the 1.01 debate, at this point in time I would lean towards Dez Bryant in PPR leagues. I agree that he's not on the level of Calvin Johnson or Andre Johnson as a physical specimen, but who is? He's plenty big, plenty fast, and plenty athletic. I think he'll be a nice pro, somewhere between Dwayne Bowe and Reggie Wayne (two guys he reminds me of in different ways). Is that worth the 1.01 pick? Really depends.

Even if you have the 1.01 rookie pick, you're usually not going to end up with the best player in the draft. That's just the way it works. I don't think you should sit there and outsmart yourself by taking a lesser hyped player like Best or Benn over Bryant just because they *might* become better pros. I think it's generally wise to take the player who has the best chance to become a reliable contributor, even if there are flashier players in the class who might end up being better.

Maybe Spiller is the next Chris Johnson. Maybe he's the next Michael Bennett. Maybe Best is the next Warrick Dunn. Maybe he's the next Leon Washington. When I look at these guys, I see a wide spectrum of potential outcomes. When I look at Bryant, I see a pretty narrow range. I know who he is. He's going to be a perennial 1,000+ yard receiver in the NFL unless he stops working hard. I'm inclined to trade a slight downgrade in upside for a huge upgrade in certainty.

This was the same logic for putting Crabtree atop my board this past season. There were players in the class with more upside, but none who could match his combination of high upside and low bust risk. I have a similar feeling about Bryant. He will be one of the top 2-3 players on my board, but he could slip out of the top spot depending on what happens with guys like Mathews and Dwyer on draft day.

 

[EBF]

This is a good post, Krem. I've hesitated to be critical of Bryant because I haven't seen that much of him, and some of the praise is so high, I figure I must have missed some really great stuff. What I have seen has been impressive, but no moreso than Dwayne Jarrett at SC.

Much better build than Jarrett. Stronger, quicker, and more fluid.

 

[coolnerd]

How does everyone feel about the QB's for those of us in Two-QB leaguesBradford possibly could have gone #1OA last year had he come out but is dropping in the draft rankings this year because of an injury..Clausen seems to be the favorite as the number 1 QB in the draft.What's everyone elses opinions?

Bradford and clausen will both probably go in the top 10 of both the NFL draft and 2qb drafts. Not convinced on Clausen as much as I think I should be and others have covered Sam Bradford. The next level will be two name QBs in McCoy and Tebow. Both should get drafted high enough late 1st to mid 2nd where they will get a chance with some team, but I would be careful drafting either because they are probably not immediate impact types. None of the Mid-level, smaller school guys emerged during the season although largely productive mostly in spread offenses. Names, just in case one gets late love Tim Hiller, Tony Pike, Rusty Smith , and Dan leFevour. Bigger school guys who might be drafted as devlopment or system style QBs: Zac robinson, Sean Canfield, Max Hall, Jarrett Brown, Daryll Clark, KafkaUnderclassman to watch in case they declare, but probably should not turn pro(based on develpment). Ryan Mallett, Case Keenum, Jerrod Johnson, Jevan SneadSmall School guys who ae just names to be but watch just in case: John Skelton (forham), Levi Brown (Troy),

 

[Chaos Commish]

This is a good post, Krem. I've hesitated to be critical of Bryant because I haven't seen that much of him, and some of the praise is so high, I figure I must have missed some really great stuff. What I have seen has been impressive, but no moreso than Dwayne Jarrett at SC.

Much better build than Jarrett. Stronger, quicker, and more fluid.

I don't disagree with your rationale, just the strength of opinion it generates on WRs. At one point in late 07 you said you might prefer same said Jarrett to Adrian Peterson and preferred Calvin without question. Too much WR love for me. I probably go the the other way and favor RBs too much, still believing I can find a similar WR later, but not a similar RB. Back then I wrote for all any of us knew Desean Jackson would put up better numbers than Calvin. In PPR Best and Spiller's value increase and I am more certain of both of them than I am of Bryant. Comparing Best or Spillar to Leon Washington is a bigger reach than comparing Jarrett to Dez, imo. And for all any of us know Damian Williams will put up better numbers than Bryant. Williams is really growing on me, btw.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

This is a good post, Krem. I've hesitated to be critical of Bryant because I haven't seen that much of him, and some of the praise is so high, I figure I must have missed some really great stuff. What I have seen has been impressive, but no moreso than Dwayne Jarrett at SC.

Much better build than Jarrett. Stronger, quicker, and more fluid.

I don't disagree with your rationale, just the strength of opinion it generates on WRs. At one point in late 07 you said you might prefer same said Jarrett to Adrian Peterson and preferred Calvin without question. Too much WR love for me. I probably go the the other way and favor RBs too much, still believing I can find a similar WR later, but not a similar RB. Back then I wrote for all any of us knew Desean Jackson would put up better numbers than Calvin. In PPR Best and Spiller's value increase and I am more certain of both of them than I am of Bryant. Comparing Best or Spillar to Leon Washington is a bigger reach than comparing Jarrett to Dez, imo. And for all any of us know Damian Williams will put up better numbers than Bryant. Williams is really growing on me, btw.

I think in general you are right that it's easier to find a WR later than a RB. I just think that in this draft the only solid, sure fire "good" player is Bryant. So I think he should go 1.1 over the RBs in PPR just in terms of risk avoidance. Of course, he could still bomb. But it's also an easier pick than deciding which of the 4 RBs you like the most.

 

[Chaos Commish]

This is a good post, Krem. I've hesitated to be critical of Bryant because I haven't seen that much of him, and some of the praise is so high, I figure I must have missed some really great stuff. What I have seen has been impressive, but no moreso than Dwayne Jarrett at SC.

Much better build than Jarrett. Stronger, quicker, and more fluid.

I don't disagree with your rationale, just the strength of opinion it generates on WRs. At one point in late 07 you said you might prefer same said Jarrett to Adrian Peterson and preferred Calvin without question. Too much WR love for me. I probably go the the other way and favor RBs too much, still believing I can find a similar WR later, but not a similar RB. Back then I wrote for all any of us knew Desean Jackson would put up better numbers than Calvin. In PPR Best and Spiller's value increase and I am more certain of both of them than I am of Bryant. Comparing Best or Spillar to Leon Washington is a bigger reach than comparing Jarrett to Dez, imo. And for all any of us know Damian Williams will put up better numbers than Bryant. Williams is really growing on me, btw.

I think in general you are right that it's easier to find a WR later than a RB. I just think that in this draft the only solid, sure fire "good" player is Bryant. So I think he should go 1.1 over the RBs in PPR just in terms of risk avoidance. Of course, he could still bomb. But it's also an easier pick than deciding which of the 4 RBs you like the most.

So we just differ on who we believe is sure fire.