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****2012 Draft Thread**** (1 Viewer)

massraider

Footballguy
Let's start with a ranking of the declared underclassmen, from the great NFL DraftScout:

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/story/16888044/ranking-the-eligible-underclassmen-for-the-2012-nfl-draft

NFLDraftScout.com has a rundown of the 56 underclassmen eligible to be drafted in 2012. Each player is listed by position and school as well as where he ranked on deadline day -- first on NFLDraftScout.com's board overall and then by position (including seniors).

QB Andrew Luck, Stanford, No. 1 overall/No. 1 at position: He has the size, arm strength, accuracy and mobility to earn a first-round grade strictly on his physical talents, but what sets Luck apart from other recent elite quarterback prospects is poise. Whether in the form of calmly surveying the field in a messy pocket or in playing at high level despite being on the national media pedestal all season, he's proven unflappable. There are too many variables to label a player as truly can't-miss, but in terms of sure things at quarterback, Luck is as close as it comes.

OT Matt Kalil, Southern California, 2/1: Big, strong and athletic, Kalil ably protected Matt Barkley's blind side for the past two seasons, generating comparisons to former Trojan great Tony Boselli. Kalil has been coached well and has excellent bloodlines. His brother, Ryan, was an All-American center at Southern Cal and just earned his third consecutive Pro Bowl invitation working inside for the Carolina Panthers.

QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor, 3/2: Andrew Luck may be the sure thing of the 2012 draft, but with his Heisman Trophy and dazzling blend of speed and accuracy, no player can match the excitement generated by RG3. Concerns about Griffin's size (listed at 6-2, 220) and transition from the same spread offense that may have inflated Kevin Kolb's college numbers are potential red flags. But a year after Cam Newton took the league by storm, Griffin's mobility and remarkable deep accuracy should dizzy offensive coordinators pondering the possibilities.

CB Morris Claiborne, LSU, 4/1: Playmaking cover corner with rare agility, speed and ball skills. Won the 2011 Thorpe Award as the nation's top defensive back despite being overshadowed for much of the season by more heralded teammate Tyrann Mathieu. Is a more technically sound cornerback than his former teammate, Patrick Peterson, the No. 5 overall pick last year and a rookie Pro Bowl player.

OT Riley Reiff, Iowa, 5/2: An athletic and versatile blocker well schooled by coach and noted offensive line guru Kirk Ferentz, Reiff (pronounced Reef) is a legitimate NFL left tackle who has also started at right tackle and left guard for the Hawkeyes. Scouts would like to see him gain some upper body strength but Reiff's upside is immense.

More on 2012 draft

WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State, 6/1: With 121 receptions for 1,522 yards and 18 touchdowns, Blackmon won his second consecutive Biletnikof Award as the nation's elite receiver. Possessing a combination of size, strength and speed that has drawn comparisons to Brandon Marshall, Blackmon is an immediate impact target worthy of top 10 consideration. Should Blackmon run well, a top five pick is possible.

RB Trent Richardson, Alabama, 7/1: A long-time scout told me that he hasn't seen a running back with Trent Richardson's size and explosiveness in the SEC since the legendary Herschel Walker was a Georgia Bulldog. That might seem like hyperbole until you see Richardson play. Richardson's talent is so impressive, in fact, it may force a team to ignore the fact that none of the seven running backs drafted in the first round over the past three seasons has played up to his selection.

OG David DeCastro, Stanford, 9/1: Stanford coach David Shaw says DeCastro reminds him of Steve Wisniewski, an eight-time Pro Bowl player with the Oakland Raiders. It's hard to argue with Shaw (who was on the Raiders staff for four of those seasons) as DeCastro shows a similar combination of the athleticism, strength and nastiness that characterized Wisniewski's play. Interior linemen rarely earn top 20 consideration. but DeCastro may prove an exception.

CB 'Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama, 10/2: Lanky press corner with rare speed and hip flexibility for a cornerback his size. Instinctive and physical, making him very capable in zone coverage and run support. Helped limit LSU star receiver Rueben Randle to only five catches for 32 yards in Alabama's two games vs. LSU.

OT Jonathan Martin, Stanford, 11/3: Martin isn't as physical in the running game as fellow juniors Matt Kalil and Riley Reiff. But he's every bit their match in terms of athleticism and provided stellar protection of Andrew Luck's blind side his entire career. He may be third in the rankings amongst tackles but could be among the first 15 players selected. There is a steep dropoff in talent at offensive tackle following Martin.

DE Nick Perry, Southern California, 16/1: Perry intrigues scouts with his upside and potential scheme versatility. Possessing an explosive first step and surprising strength, Perry led the Pac-12 with 9.5 sacks as a junior. He flashes spectacular athleticism on the field and could convince 3-4 teams he's capable of making the switch to outside linebacker with strong workouts.

DT Fletcher Cox, Mississippi State, 17/3: A long-armed, athletic defender still growing into his body, Cox earned the SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week four times in 2011. Cox was given a second-round grade by the NFL Advisory Committee but has the blend of size, strength and athleticism to interest teams using the 4-3 and 3-4 alike.

ILB Luke Kuechly, Boston College, 18/1: Leaves Boston College the 2011 winner of the Butkus, Lombardi, Nagurski and Lott Impact awards after again leading the country in both solo and total tackles. Accomplished the same feat as a sophomore after finishing second as a true freshman. Not the biggest or fastest linebacker but he possesses finely tuned instincts and is a terrific open-field tackler.

DT Jerel Worthy, Michigan State, 19/4: Massive run-stuffer inside who flashes a terrific burst off the snap to surprise pass blockers. Doesn't play with the consistency scouts would like but was the headliner for a Spartan defense that ranked among the nation's elite, earning Worthy first-team All-American honors from the Associated Press == the first Spartan defensive linemen to do so since the late, great Bubba Smith was recognized in 1966.

OC Peter Konz, Wisconsin, 22/1: Arguably the most gifted of a supremely talented Wisconsin offensive line. Possesses a rare combination of size, strength and mobility and though his experience lies at center scouts feel he could make an immediate impact at any of the three interior line positions.

ILB Donta Hightower, Alabama, 26/2: Massive, physical inside linebacker best suited to remaining in the 3-4 alignment where his lack of elite speed can be minimized. Takes on and shed blockers at the line forcefully and is a talented pass rusher, as well.

WR Mohamed Sanu, Rutgers, 28/4: Sanu is a physical, athletic receiver with the route-running, hands and toughness to see immediate playing time in the NFL. He left Rutgers after a junior season in which he set the school and Big East record with 210 career receptions.

TE Dwayne Allen, Clemson, 29/4: Allen's blend of size, strength and refined receiving skills make him the top traditional tight end prospect of the 2012 draft. The Mackey Award winner as the nation's top tight end, Allen is a functional in-line blocker and broke the Clemson record for catches (50), receiving yards (598) and touchdowns (eight) by a tight end.

DE Whitney Mercilus, Illinois, 31/2: Mercilus led the nation in both sacks (16) and forced fumbles (nine). Some worry that his gaudy statistics were inflated by an aggressive scheme as Mercilus relies more on strength and tenacity than speed or technique.

RB Lamar Miller, Miami, 32/2: The dropoff from Trent Richardson to the rest of the 2012 running back class is steep, but due to his electric speed and relative slight wear, Miller could give the first round a second running back. Miller left The U as a redshirt sophomore but was dazzling at times this season, rushing for 1,272 yards == the third-highest single-season total in school history.

DT Dontari Poe, Memphis, 33/5: He shows light feet for a man as imposing as there is in the country, Poe registered 33 tackles and eight tackles for loss playing on the nose in the Tigers' 4-3 alignment. His size is certainly intriguing inside but Poe also showed in 2011 that his long arms make him equally effective setting the edge at defensive end. Poe's incredible size and versatility makes him arguably the wild card among all defensive linemen in the 2012 draft.

DT Michael Brockers , LSU, 37/6: Left LSU after only his redshirt sophomore but is an exciting talent with great length, strength and effort. May have been the Tigers' most impressive prospect in the BCS title game against Alabama, posting seven tackles, a tackle for loss and a blocked kick. Brockers is an unfinished product whose best football is still ahead of him.

OG Brandon Washington, Miami, 39/3: Versatile lineman who proved capable of playing at a high level at left tackle and left guard over his career. Possesses a short, stocky build that may be better suited inside against NFL competition. Was one of two Miami underclassmen (Olivier Vernon) to play in the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl, an all-star game open to underclassmen.

WR Alshon Jeffery, South Carolina, 40/5: Big, strong and possessing remarkable body control to win tightly contested battles for the ball, Jeffery dominated the SEC since stepping onto the field as a true freshman. But Jeffery isn't quite as highly regarded as his reputation would imply. Scouts worry his average speed and burst will keep him from separating against NFL-caliber cornerbacks.

RB David Wilson, Virginia Tech, 42/3: An extraordinary athlete who not only broke the school record with 1,709 rushing yards in 2011 but finished sixth in the NCAA in the triple jump as a member of the track and field team. Wilson's production and top-end speed are off the charts, but scouts will have to weigh the past struggles of other highly touted Virginia Tech running backs of the past.

ILB Vontaze Burfict, Arizona State, 44/3: Boasts prototypical size and explosive hitting ability but hasn't played with the consistency scouts would like and developed a well-earned reputation as a hot-head prone to foolish penalties. The ultimate boom or bust pick of the 2012 draft.

CB Jayron Hosley, Virginia Tech, 45/6: An undersized cover corner with excellent agility, speed and ball skills, Hosley exploded onto the scene in 2010, leading the country with nine interceptions. He dropped to three in 2011 (which led the Hokies), with opponents often choosing to ignore his side of the field.

WR Rueben Randle, LSU, 48/6: A lanky, athletic and surprisingly fast receiver, Randle played a critical role in LSU's march to the BCS title game, leading the team in catches (53), receiving yards (917), average yards per catch (17.3) and receiving touchdowns (eight).

CB Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina, 51/7: An instinctive and physical defender better served in zone coverage or perhaps even being moved back to safety rather than lining up in man to man against NFL-caliber receivers.

OLB Ronnell Lewis, Oklahoma, 53/6: A defensive end and special teams standout who best projects as a rush linebacker for a 3-4 club in the NFL, Lewis may present as much upside as any front seven defender in the 2012 draft. But concerns about his ability to make the adjustment to a new position and scheme are compounded with Lewis' relative inexperience (he played eight-man football in high school) and struggles in the classroom.

TE Orson Charles, Georgia, 54/3: Smaller than most teams would prefer at tight end but is a surprisingly physical blocker and a matchup headache in the passing game. Can extend and pluck outside of his frame and is both athletic and hard-running after the catch.

DE Chandler Jones , Syracuse, 56/5: The younger brother of former Syracuse standout (and current Baltimore Raven) Arthur Jones, Chandler may have pounced on his NFL opportunity after watching his brother's stock slip mightily following an injury-plagued senior season. Possessing good burst off the snap for a man of his size and the long arms to keep pass blockers off his chest, Jones is quietly among the better second-tier pass rushers available.

RB Chris Polk, Washington, 57/4: A physical north-south runner who plays with the physicality characteristic of another Pacific Northwest running back == Seattle Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch. Though scouts love Polk's toughness and consistency, the fact that he's already twice undergone shoulder surgery is a concern.

OLB Jonathan Massaquoi , Troy, 62/9: Undersized edge rusher who dominated the Sun Belt in his two seasons there, earning first-team all-conference honors each time. Played primarily at left defensive end in Troy's 4-3 alignment but projects best as a rush linebacker in the 3-4. Recorded 31 tackles for loss and 19.5 sacks in two seasons for the Trojans.

RB LaMichael James, Oregon, 68/5: Undersized scatback perfectly suited to Oregon's frantic pace. Possesses excellent elusiveness and straight-line speed to take advantage of wide rushing lanes. Still developing as a receiver and has minimal experience as a return man. His success at the NFL level might not come as quickly as many predict based on his college resume.

OT Bobby Massie , Mississippi, 76/7: Powerful strong-side tackle who may project inside for many NFL teams, Massie signed with Ole Miss as a highly touted prep and started the final 29 games of his career. Though he never earned all-conference recognition, his size, strength and surprisingly light feet give him tools for an NFL offensive line coach to work with.

WR Chris Givens, Wake Forest, 90/10: Multidimensional weapon who led Wake Forest in all-purpose yardage in each of his three starting seasons as the team's primary receiver and return specialist. Has earned some comparisons to the Pittsburgh Steelers' Antonio Brown for his speed and elusiveness.

RB Bernard Pierce, Temple, 91/7: Record-breaking back who certainly looks the part and may owe the fact that he played for the Owls as a reason why he's relatively unheralded despite 1,481 yards and a jaw-dropping 27 touchdowns in 2011. Struggled with durability over his career, missing time with various ailments each of his three seasons at Temple.

CB Cliff Harris, Oregon, 93/13: An All-American returner and cornerback for the Ducks in 2010, Harris endured a nightmarish 2011 in which his poor decisions off the field diluted everything he's done on it. After multiple run-ins with police and the Oregon coaching staff, Harris was ultimately kicked off the team for good in December. Though slimmer than scouts would like, Harris' elite athleticism will give him a chance in the NFL but some teams have likely already eliminated him from consideration.

WR Stephen Hill , Georgia Tech, 92/11: Paul Johnson's triple-option offense rarely puts the ball in receivers' hands, but Hill demonstrated his big play potential in averaging a gaudy 29.3 yards per catch in 2011, which led the country and broke the school record. Hill is undeniably raw but his size and speed combination is reminiscent of former Tech and 2010 first-rounder Demaryius Thomas.

WR Tommy Streeter, Miami, 97/12: One of several surprising early entries from the Hurricanes, Streeter entered the 2011 season having only caught five passes over his career but emerged as senior quarterback Jacory Harris' favorite target, hauling in 46 balls for 811 yards and eight touchdowns. The lanky, athletic wideout possesses exciting upside but is very much a project.

DT Marcus Forston, Miami, 99/12: Forston leaves Miami having flashed standout ability when healthy throughout his career but has seen two of his four seasons (2009, 2011) with the program end early due to injury. A physical, active interior defender, Forston is a mid-round gamble that could pay off big.

QB Brock Osweiler , Arizona State, 107/7: Osweiler's emergence in his first full season as the starter played a critical role in ASU's return to a bowl game in 2011. Though more athletic than Ryan Mallett, Osweiler has a similar tall, lanky frame that could lead to struggles escaping the pocket in the NFL. Scouts would have liked to have seen him return for his senior season but there is no denying Osweiler's talent and impressive production (4,036 yards, 26 touchdowns/13 interceptions) in a pro-style offense this season.

Miami's Tommy Streeter is a lanky wideout with an exciting upside. (US Presswire)

Miami's Tommy Streeter is a lanky wideout with an exciting upside. (US Presswire)

CB Josh Robinson, Central Florida, 108/14: Athletic and instinctive cover corner with good speed and an explosive burst to close on the ball. Earned Conference USA first-team honors after each of his past two seasons and has 10 interceptions and 36 passes broken up over his career.

OLB Terrell Manning, North Carolina State, 109/13: Taking advantage of a relatively weak senior crop of traditional 4-3 outside linebackers, Manning elected to come out early having already established himself as an athletic defender capable of making plays against the run, dropping back into coverage or rushing the passer. In just 11 games this season, Manning registered 76 tackles, led the team with 14.5 tackles for loss and tied for the lead in sacks (5.5), passes broken up (five) and forced fumbles (four).

RB Ronnie Hillman, San Diego State, 110/10: A nationally underrated talent whose production is sure to catch the attention of scouts, Hillman averaged over 1,600 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground the past two seasons for the Aztecs. Possessing excellent maneuverability, vision and burst, he is a similar threat as Oregon's LaMichael James.

RB Robert Turbin, Utah State, 125/12: A burly back with better speed than most give him credit for, Turbin led the Aggies to their first bowl game since 1997 and, in rushing for 1,517 yards and 19 touchdowns, won the WAC Offensive Player of the Year. Turbin also will get high marks from scouts with his ability as a receiver (67 receptions for 845 yards and 11 touchdowns over his career) and pass blocker.

WR Eric Page , Toledo, 139/16: Appropriately wore No. 12 for the Rockets as there is some Percy Harvin in Page's game. Relies more on his quickness and vision rather than explosiveness or speed after the catch. Tied the MAC record with 306 career receptions despite leaving as a junior.

DE Olivier Vernon , Miami, 181/14: Flashes an explosive burst off the snap but stunned scouts with the decision to turn pro early after missing the first six games of the 2011 season due to a suspension, registering just 18 tackles. Signed up to play in the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl, where he'll hope to demonstrate the flexibility and instincts to intrigue scouts looking for an undersized pass rusher for the 4-3 or a outside linebacker in the 3-4.

DE Donte Paige-Moss , North Carolina, 226/17: Entered the 2011 season as one of the more intriguing pass rushers in the country but was passed up on the depth chart and saw his big plays drop significantly. Tore the ACL in his right knee in the Tar Heels' Independence Bowl loss but shockingly decided to leave for the draft early any way.

RB Edwin Baker , Michigan State, 231/23: Baker seemed on path to become the next great back at Michigan State when he rushed for 1,201 yards and earned all-conference accolades as a sophomore but was relegated to second string with the emergence of Le'Veon Bell in 2011, seeing his production cut nearly in half. A squatty, physical back, Baker could find a niche if given an opportunity.

RB Darrell Scott, South Florida, 295/26: A powerful interior runner who transferred to South Florida after originally signing with Colorado, led the Bulls with 814 rushing yards and five touchdowns and elected to make the jump to the NFL. Could fit with a team as a power option as part of a committee but may have left due to his age (turns 24 in April) rather than earning a high grade from scouts.

RB Jewel Hampton, Southern Illinois, 367/32: Flashed as a true freshman backup to Shonn Greene at Iowa before losing the 2009-10 seasons due to torn ACLs (first in his right, then left). Earned the Newcomer of the Year in his only season in the Missouri Valley Football Conference and jumped ship.

RB Mike Ball, Nevada, 405/36: Kicked off the team in November for an undisclosed violation of team rules, Ball elected to make himself eligible for the draft rather than transfer elsewhere and attempt to improve his stock. While he flashed some ability as a kick returner (1,695 yards), much of his production as a running back (704 yards, three touchdowns) came in large part due to the wide running lanes created by the Wolfpack's unique pistol offense.

RB Alvester Alexander, Wyoming, NR/NR: An upright runner with only average speed and elusiveness, Alexander may have hit the panic button early after seeing his statistics fall in 2011 after a breakout sophomore season in which he set the school record with 14 rushing touchdowns.

QB Darron Thomas, Oregon, NR/NR: Athletic, productive junior quarterback whose statistics and hype are more impressive than his game tape. Has talent but is also an undeniable project.

 
the more I look at this class, the more I like it...those that just look at the top 2 elite prospects and the 2 QB's could be missing the boat. Guys like Floyd, Kendall Wright, Wilson, Miller, and Martin will fill out a very strong 1st round for rookie drafts. That's 9 strong right there and I'm sure more will surface once the combine and all-star games are over

 
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the more I look at this class, the more I like it...those that just look at the top 2 elite prospects and the 2 QB's could be missing the boat. Guys like Floyd, Kendall Wright, Wilson, Miller, and Martin will fill out a very strong 1st round for rookie drafts. That's 9 strong right there and I'm sure more will surface once the combine and all-star games are over
A couple will surface after the combine, but a couple will fall as well.We'll have a rock solid top 4 and a few other nice gambles. Better then average 1st round rookie draft but that's mainly due to such a solid top 4.
 
Here are seven draft wonders from Mike Mayock

By Marc Sessler NFL.com

Writer

So many questions for Mike Mayock.

The NFL Network draft guru held court Thursday on a 97-minute conference call with reporters from Miami to San Francisco and points in between.

Queries ranged from the obscure ("Mike, what's the ceiling for Presbyterian safety Justin Bethel?"), to more hard-hitting topics, namely Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III.

Mayock was asked which of the two would encounter more success out of the gate. His response surprised a few listeners.

"On the surface, RG3 has a better chance to succeed from Day 1 because (the Washington Redskins) signed high-level wide receivers," Mayock said, before rolling to the next topic.

Here's what else we learned:

• Pinpointing a quarterback in the later rounds comes with risk. Mayock dropped this stat: Of the last 23 quarterbacks taken in first round, 15 currently are starters. Among the 82 drafted from the second to seventh rounds? A grand total of seven became starters.

• Lots of chatter lately about quarterbacks Brock Osweiler of Arizona State and Kirk Cousins of Michigan State. Buzz-kill time: Mayock sees them falling to the third round.

• With Luck and RG3 essentially off the board, the spotlight falls to the Minnesota Vikings at No. 3: "I believe (USC offensive tackle Matt) Kalil is the choice, and if it's not, it's (LSU cornerback) Morris Claiborne," said Mayock, who added he doesn't see the Vikings taking Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon.

• There are four first-round wide receivers in this draft, according to Mayock: Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright and Stephen Hill. "Hill's a little bit of a wild card," Mayock said. "... He's really raw, he's a developmental project, but boy is he gifted and athletic."

• The three first-round cornerbacks will be Claiborne, South Carolina's Stephon Gilmore and Alabama's Dre Kirkpatrick, according to Mayock. Janoris Jenkins falls to the next wave because of his well-documented off-the-field issues, as chronicled by NFL Network's Albert Breer earlier this month. Said Mayock: "The Jenkins kid is scaring a lot of people off."

• Mayock isn't as high on North Carolina linebacker Zach Brown: "Anytime anybody gets on him, his feet stop. He's a run-and-chase linebacker who's going to get enveloped."
 
NFL draft buzz: Ryan Tannehill still the key; Fletcher Cox at 6?

By Jason La Canfora NFL Network

NFL Network Insider

The time of great misinformation is upon us. A week out from the 2012 NFL Draft, the spin masters, be they general managers, scouts, coaches or agents, are hard at work, trying to steer the pre-draft chatter in a manner which is most conducive to their draft board, or client.

And in this era of social media, it's never been easier to start a rumor that just might catch on. With that in mind, here are 10 thoughts on the draft as we get closer and closer to Commissioner Roger Goodell calling out Andrew Luck's name to kick it all off from Radio City Music Hall.

1. Ryan Tannehill is the key to it all

Wish I had a dollar for every time a front office person or agent uttered something along the lines of "It all starts with Tannehill" or "Tannehill is the swing player in this draft." We already know what's happening with the first two picks, so draft intrigue really begins with the Minnesota Vikings at No. 3 -- more on the Vikings in the next item -- and whether someone would try to jump the Cleveland Browns at No. 4 for Tannehill or RB Trent Richardson.

The Browns are considering Tannehill with the fourth pick. He is going in the top 11, this much I am convinced of (and so is everyone else I've talked to). So No. 4 isn't a big stretch. It's highly unlikely he'd get past the Miami Dolphins at 8, but if somehow he did, the Kansas City Chiefs would snag him at 11. If Tannehill goes in the top four, then pass rushers and corners start going lower and things slide down. And if Tannehill goes in the top four, a corresponding run on quarterbacks in the late first/early second becomes all the more likely -- similar to how we saw teams jockeying in trades trying to land Andy Dalton or Colin Kaepernick a year ago. Prepare for more of that, with guys like Brandon Weeden and Kirk Cousins as possible targets.

All eyes are on Tannehill, and if his name is called as early as I think it will be next Thursday, the ripple effects will be very real.

2. How Tannehill affects the Panthers

If you are in the top 10, and you already have a quarterback, you want nothing more than to see this early run. For example, few teams would love to see Tannehill go in the top four more than Carolina Panthers GM Marty Hurney. The Panthers pick ninth and already have a stud QB in Cam Newton. If three quarterbacks go in the top four, then in reality Hurney has the sixth overall pick, because he wouldn't take a quarterback in any circumstance.

Throw in an RB like Richardson, who wouldn't fit the Panthers, going in the top five ... All of a sudden there could be a scenario where Quinton Coples, a freak-of-nature-type athlete off the edge, and Morris Claiborne, the top corner in the draft, are both sitting there for the taking at the ninth overall pick.

3. A St. Louis surprise?

I'm looking at the St. Louis Rams, who possess the sixth overall pick, as one of the teams that could throw a major curveball. Conventional wisdom has them taking Richardson, who coach Jeff Fisher has gushed about, Claiborne or a wide receiver. But look back on Fisher's time in Tennessee. Few teams loaded up on more defensive linemen than Fisher's Titans. Richardson is special, but the Rams still have Steven Jackson. Plus, we're in an age of devaluing running backs and they abound in the middle rounds and late stages of free agency. Claiborne is special ... but the Rams just gave Cortland Finnegan $33 million over the next three years. And sure, they need weapons for Sam Bradford, but this draft is deepest at wide receiver -- the Rams can find a starting wideout at the top of the second round.

What you won't find outside of the top of the draft is a game-changing interior defensive lineman. And it says here Fletcher Cox is the guy for the Rams. The Mississippi State defensive tackle is exactly the kind of guy Jim Washburn, Fisher's longtime defensive line coach in Tennessee, would covet. (And I'm convinced that if the Philadelphia Eagles, Washburn's current employer, did trade up, it would be for Cox.) In fact, I could see a scenario where the Jacksonville Jaguars, picking seventh and sorely in need of a wide receiver, have their pick of Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd. (According to sources, they'd lean toward Blackmon.)

4. Which Kalil rumor is true?

The Minnesota Vikings either think USC's Matt Kalil is the next great left tackle, a sure-fire Hall of Fame prospect ... or they're not sold on him at all, feel like they could get great value in a tackle way down the board, and really, really want to trade out. Depends on who you talk to.

There is no middle ground here. And it seems pretty close. If I've had five GMs tell me Kalil is absolutely, positively the pick there, then I've had at least as many say the exact opposite. So, kudos to the Vikings because I suppose this is the dream scenario for a club. Whether or not Kalil is a perennial Pro Bowler in the making, the Vikings remain open for business on the trade front. They need help all over and accruing picks makes sense. If they can't find a trade partner to give them the value they covet, then I'd still give them Kalil if forced to mock this draft. Maybe some of this dichotomy is born of the fact that the first two picks are already in the bag and Kalil seemed like such a no-brainer for the Vikings, but there are agents for other offensive linemen in this draft who are adamant that Minnesota is not as all-in on Kalil as some would have you believe.

5. There shall be trades!

Teams are looking to jettison some veteran talent before May. Philadelphia has shopped Asante Samuel for ages, Washington wants to move Jabar Gaffney, and Osi Umenyiora would still be very open to a change of scenery. That's enough to create some action. With everyone seeing last year just how fixed the cost certainty is on these drafts picks in the new collective bargaining agreement, I'm bracing for all kinds of wheeling and dealing. Especially with so much time to make deals Thursday, and so much more time to make moves before the start of Round 2 on Friday.

As mentioned above, the Vikings' No. 3 pick is in play. The New England Patriots are widely expected to move at least one of their late first-round picks. Jacksonville, especially in the aforementioned scenario with both top receivers still on the board at No. 7, would love for someone to come calling to try to jump Miami for Tannehill. Sources tell me both the Buffalo Bills and Arizona Cardinals are interested in moving back, given the offensive line depth in this draft (a need for both clubs). Philadelphia, at No. 15, is poised to move up or back, depending on what happens at the top of the draft.

And as the start of Round 2 approaches, there will be supply-vs.-demand issues at a few key positions that will kick-start shuffling at the beginning of Friday night.

6. NFC East grudge match

If LSU defensive tackle Michael Brockers makes it to the middle of the first round, he's a player Dallas (14th) and Philadelphia (one pick later) are very high on. Would one of them try to move into Arizona's spot at 13 to make sure they land him? It's one of the interesting flashpoints in this draft -- you're talking about two aggressive front offices that could be in direct competition for a player.

7. Lions cornering the market

I can't see a scenario where the Lions don't take Dre Kirkpatrick or Stephon Gilmore if one is available when they pick (Detroit currently holds the 23rd selection). There are offensive linemen the Lions like, as well, but they passed on DB help early last year and lost Eric Wright in free agency. Not to mention, they play in a division with Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler -- that accounts for a quarter of their schedule every year. The pass rush is there ... they need the back end to hold up.

8. Janoris in Round 1

Few players have been as scrutinized leading up to this draft as Northern Alabama CB Janoris Jenkins. He's been the subject of scorn and intrigue. In the end, despite all the disconcerting stories about him and his dismissal from Florida, the talent is there. Cover corners are very rare. A year ago, Jimmy Smith was in a similar spot and still went in the first round.

Now, Jenkins isn't as big as Smith. But it's very possible we see five corners come off the board in the first round. Georgia's Brandon Boykin is generating a lot of buzz, too. He can play four spots (corner, nickel corner, return specialist, and some teams see Wildcat potential in him, as well). Wouldn't be shocked if he is the fourth corner taken in the draft.

9. Late linemen

The Houston Texans and New York Giants, picking late in the first round, will both be looking for the best offensive lineman available. In general, there could be a run on them in the 20s, with Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Baltimore and San Francisco spending a lot of time scouting that position group, as well. I could see players like Stanford OT Jonathan Martin, Ohio State OT Mike Adams, Wisconsin OG Kevin Zeitler and Midwestern State OG Amini Silatolu flying off the board in a flurry there. In terms of the buzz around Wisconsin C Peter Konz ... I'm not sure a center goes that high. And several teams I've talked to don't believe Delaware's Gino Gradkowski or Georgia's Ben Jones grade too far behind him and could be better value a little deeper down Day 2.

10. Late riser

You don't hear much about Marshall DE Vinny Curry, but could he be the second outside rusher selected? Wouldn't shock me. He's raw, but teams are very interested. He had 13 visits, and late private workouts with teams like the Jets, Lions and Eagles. He could be in play starting around No. 14, depending on what happens up top. He's someone a lot of teams wanted to spend some time with and learn a little more about. Knocks have emerged on other defensive ends over time. I can't help but wonder if Curry ends up hearing his name called much higher than many have projected, similar to a Tyson Alualu a couple years back.
 
Ryan Tannehill, Dontari Poe headline overrated draft prospects

By Bucky Brooks NFL.com

Analyst

I've often wondered how different the NFL draft would look if it was conducted closer to the conclusion of college football's regular season.

Scouts would have to base their opinions solely off game tape and avoid the influence of the NFL Scouting Combine and pre-draft workouts. While those events are important in the evaluation process, the image of watching top prospects perform in shorts and T-shirts can prompt evaluators to overestimate the pro potential of players who haven't consistently produced at an elite level on tape.

Coaches, in particular, are prone to become enamored with prospects after watching them perform in person. Coaches routinely believe they have the ability to unlock a player's untapped potential with proper instruction and scheming, which leads some teams to select guys higher than their value based on tape study.

With the draft only a week away and the scouting community buzzing about the rise of a handful of players on draft boards across the league, here are five prospects who are overrated at this point of the process:



1. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M: Tannehill has become one of the most debated prospects in the scouting community following his ascension up the charts in recent weeks. His supporters see an athletic quarterback with outstanding physical tools and potential, but some scouts harbor concerns about his limited game experience and indecisiveness in the pocket. While the desperation for finding a franchise quarterback routinely boosts the value of prospects with potential, Tannehill's game currently falls short of normal top-10 expectations.

2. Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis: After dazzling scouts with his impressive combination of size, strength and athleticism at the combine, Poe has experienced a meteoric rise up the charts in most war rooms. He has been pegged as a candidate to come off the board within the first 10 picks, but his lackluster production on tape should raise concerns about his ability to make an immediate impact as a pro.



3. Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina: Gilmore quietly has vaulted into top-20 consideration after a solid set of workouts during the offseason. Coaches and scouts are enchanted by his size, athleticism and toughness, but Gilmore didn't stand out as an elite cover corner when studying his tape. He lacks the tools and technical savvy to lock down talented receivers in isolated matchups (man coverage), which makes projecting Gilmore as a premier cover corner problematic in my opinion.

4. Doug Martin, RB, Boise State: Martin's stock is rising rapidly following impressive showings at the Senior Bowl and combine. Evaluators envision him blossoming into a productive feature back in a power-based offense, but Martin doesn't display elite traits (speed, quickness and body control) as a runner on tape. While Martin's size and production certainly merit consideration early in the draft, he is a good (but not great) player who lacks the traditional skills associated with elite runners.

5. Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State: Pass rushers are valued at a premium in the NFL, so prospects flashing the ability to get to the quarterback fly up the charts as the draft approaches. McClellin displayed an uncanny knack for creating havoc off the edge during the regular season and at the East-West Shrine Game, but he is not a pure pass rusher with the size and speed to consistently win against big, imposing offensive tackles. His production has been a byproduct of the Broncos' clever defensive scheme, rather than his individual talent. For a team expecting a dominating pass rusher with game-changing skills, McClellin's workmanlike game might not produce the results to match his draft status.
 
Ryan Tannehill, Dontari Poe headline overrated draft prospects

By Bucky Brooks NFL.com

Analyst



1. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M: Tannehill has become one of the most debated prospects in the scouting community following his ascension up the charts in recent weeks. His supporters see an athletic quarterback with outstanding physical tools and potential, but some scouts harbor concerns about his limited game experience and indecisiveness in the pocket. While the desperation for finding a franchise quarterback routinely boosts the value of prospects with potential, Tannehill's game currently falls short of normal top-10 expectations.

4. Doug Martin, RB, Boise State: Martin's stock is rising rapidly following impressive showings at the Senior Bowl and combine. Evaluators envision him blossoming into a productive feature back in a power-based offense, but Martin doesn't display elite traits (speed, quickness and body control) as a runner on tape. While Martin's size and production certainly merit consideration early in the draft, he is a good (but not great) player who lacks the traditional skills associated with elite runners.
Bucky gets it. :thumbup: Although speaking ill of Martin will not go over very well around here.
 
'Faust said:
NFL draft buzz: Ryan Tannehill still the key; Fletcher Cox at 6?

By Jason La Canfora NFL Network

1. Ryan Tannehill is the key to it all

Wish I had a dollar for every time a front office person or agent uttered something along the lines of "It all starts with Tannehill" or "Tannehill is the swing player in this draft." We already know what's happening with the first two picks, so draft intrigue really begins with the Minnesota Vikings at No. 3 -- more on the Vikings in the next item -- and whether someone would try to jump the Cleveland Browns at No. 4 for Tannehill or RB Trent Richardson.

The Browns are considering Tannehill with the fourth pick.
No, they're not.
 
Blackmon, Floyd would do well to avoid fate of most top-10 WRs

Andrew Lawrence

When it comes to drafting wide receivers high in the first round, pickin' ain't easy. For every seemingly can't-miss prospect like Calvin Johnson, there lurk major whiffs like Charles Rogers and Mike Williams -- and not just for Detroit. What's worse, there's always a more lightly regarded prospect lower in the draft (like the Texans' Kevin Walter, a seventh-rounder of the Giants in 2003) or on the street (like the Patriots' Wes Welker, who was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Chargers the next year) who is destined to enjoy the kind of success that makes you wonder who's running your favorite team's war room.

This year, Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon looks like a lock to be taken in the top 10, and Notre Dame's Michael Floyd could join him. While the jury's still out on the Bengals' AJ Green and the Falcons' Julio Jones, the last two top-10 receivers, both selected in 2011, there's no doubt that the arrow is pointed up for both. Their predecessors, however, were a different story -- one the following info makes plain:

2011

A.J. Green (Georgia); Bengals; No. 4 overall: Targeting a receiver ahead of a franchise passer was a gamble for the Bengals, but it's already paying off. Not only did Green pace the team in catches (65), yards (1,057) and touchdowns (seven), but QB Andy Dalton (the 35th overall pick) turned in the kind of year (3,398 yards passing, 20 TDs, a playoff berth) that made fans forget about departed QB Carson Palmer.



Julio Jones (Alabama); Falcons; No. 6: Desperate for a downfield threat, the Falcons traded away four picks (including first rounders in '11 and '12) to grab Jones. He did his job -- his 13 catches of 25 or more yards vaulted Atlanta from dead last in big pass plays to midpack.

2009

Darrius Heyward-Bey (Maryland); Raiders; No. 7: People called Al Davis crazy for picking the Terrapins' speed demon ahead of Texas Tech's Michael Crabtree (10th overall) and Mizzou's Jeremy Maclin (19th). What's crazier: Heyward-Bey's career 1,532 total yards barely approaches the outputs of Crabtree (2,246) and Maclin (2,837).

Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech); 49ers; No. 10: One of college football's most prolific receivers, Crabtree played his first two Niners seasons under as many coordinators and struggled. But he seems poised for a breakout under Greg Roman. In '11, their first year together, Crabtree achieved career bests in catches (72) and yards (874).

2007

Calvin Johnson (Ga. Tech); Lions; No. 2: How much has Megatron transformed the league? Since 2008 he has tallied more yards (4,872) and big-play catches (46) than all but three receivers while scoring the most touchdowns (44). His controversial end zone drop against the Bears in the '10 season opener raised awareness of the NFL statute requiring receivers to maintain possession "through the entirety of his catching motion" -- better known by its catchier name: The Calvin Johnson Rule.

Ted Ginn Jr. (Ohio St.); Dolphins; No. 9: The Dolphins reached for the receiver-returner over Tennessee's Robert Meachem (27th overall) and South Carolina's Sidney Rice (44th overall), thinking they were getting the next Devin Hester. Ginn delivered in the return game with thousand-yard seasons in '07 and '09, but flopped as a receiver, peaking with 56 catches in '08. Two years later he was traded to the Niners for a fifth-rounder.

2005

Braylon Edwards (Michigan); Browns; No. 3: Edwards' on-field headlines -- a Pro Bowl year with the Browns in '07, consecutive AFC title game appearances with the Jets in '09 and '10 -- paled in comparison to off-field ones for scraping with a LeBron James acquaintance and drunk driving after a '10 win over the Patriots. When the Niners cut him in December after just one season, in which he set career lows in catches (15) and yards (181), it was hardly breaking news.

Troy Williamson (South Carolina); Vikings; No. 7: After shipping Randy Moss to Oakland in exchange for LB Napoleon Harris and the seventh pick, the Vikings tapped this fleet-footed Gamecock as their new homerun hitter. One problem: his left eye was weaker than his right, and that hurt his coordination. The result: 87 catches for 1,131 yards and four TDs over five years with the Vikings and the Jaguars, who cut him loose in September of 2010.

Mike Williams (USC); Lions; No. 10: More noteworthy than Williams' yardage total in his first three seasons in Detroit and Oakland (539) was the number he posted on the scale after being picked up by Tennessee in '07 -- 271 pounds. A two-year hiatus from football followed, then a reunion with college coach Pete Carroll in Seattle produced a 65-catch, 751-yard season.

2004

Larry Fitzgerald (Pittsburgh); Cardinals; No. 3: Here's one of 120 million reasons why the six-time Pro Bowler is the one of the league's highest-paid players: In '08 he tallied a career-high 1,431 yards while catching passes from a borderline Hall of Famer in Kurt Warner. Last year he nearly hit that mark again while catching passes from three Cardinals QBs.



Roy Williams (Texas); Lions; No. 7: Williams was greeted as a savior by three teams -- and disappointed them all. With Detroit, he had just one 1,000-yard season. With Dallas, he posted barely more yards in his two seasons (1,126) than his predecessor, Terrell Owens, did in his worst (1,052). Last year in Chicago, just one of Williams' 37 catches went for at least 25 yards.

Reggie Williams (Washington); Jaguars; No. 9: A 629-yard, 10-touchdown season in '07 offers a glimpse of what could have been had Williams been able to stay out of trouble. The low point came in April of 2009, when Williams was tasered for resisting arrest after Houston police found a bag of cocaine in his pocket.

2003

Charles Rogers (Michigan St.); Lions; No. 2: The first of three straight first-round whiffs by the franchise, Rogers seduced GM Matt Millen with a 6-foot-2, 202-pound frame, vertical speed and tireless work ethic. A 22-catch, 243-yard rookie season was the climax. Two seasons later Rogers was finished. After three more, so was Millen.



Andre Johnson (Miami); Texans; No. 3: Like Fitzgerald, the four-time Pro Bowler is on a Hall of Fame track. Like Jerry Rice, Johnson has led the league in receiving in consecutive seasons (1,575 in '08 and 1,569 in '09). Like Marvin Harrison, he has led the league in receptions twice (with 103 in '06 and 115 in '08).

2001

David Terrell (Michigan); Bears; No. 8: What's the quickest way to get a Bears fan to unleash his inner Urlacher? Simply tick off a few of the picks Chicago could've had instead of this 6-2, 208-pound, 4.38 40-running tease -- like Santana Moss (16th overall), Reggie Wayne (30th) or Drew Brees (32nd) -- and pretty soon that fan'll be looking to hit somebody. Like ex-GM Jerry Angelo.

Koren Robinson (NC State); Seahawks; No. 9: Robinson was serviceable -- in '02, he led the team in catches (73) and yards (1,240) -- but not spectacular, which really hurt coach-GM Mike Holmgren. Cutting Robinson in 2005 for repeated violating the NFL's substance abuse policy reduced Holmgren to tears.
 
NFL draft forecast: Chandler Jones up, Courtney Upshaw down

By Michael Lombardi NFL Network

Front Office View

Yogi Berra once said, "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future." Well, that's exactly what I'm being asked to do with the 2012 NFL Draft. I'm not talking about my mock draft -- that comes Wednesday -- but rather a general overview of the three-day event.

Yogi is right: It is hard to make predictions, especially about the draft. So many teams try to hide their real intentions through deception. As much as teams love to lie, they cannot fully conceal reality. Many NFL teams' words to the media might be misleading, but their actions in free agency always tell the real story. That's the best indicator to consider come draft day. My advice is to ignore all the rhetoric and just trust your own instincts.

Here are 10 things that I believe to be true in this week's draft:

1. I believe the safest pick in the draft -- beyond Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III -- is Alabama running back Trent Richardson. He's a blue-chip player and has all the skills to quickly establish himself as a top-five player at his position. Forget the nonsense about not taking backs early -- everyone would love the chance to get this guy.

2. I believe the draft will get really interesting starting at pick No. 7. Especially if receiver Justin Blackmon is off the board, the Jacksonville Jaguars can go in so many different directions, but cornerback could be their top priority. Red-hot prospect Stephon Gilmore continues to fly up draft boards, so watch out for the South Carolina corner coming off the board in this slot. If Blackmon makes it to the Jags, that means someone (maybe the St. Louis Rams?) picked Mississippi State DT Fletcher Cox in the top six.

3. I believe the Minnesota Vikings will end up making the third overall selection. Even though they have basically taken out a full-page ad in the newspaper seeking a trade partner, I can't see them pulling off a deal. Teams picking in the teens might want to swap picks with them, but that would eliminate the Vikings' chances of getting either corner Morris Claiborne or tackle Matt Kalil.

4. I believe Syracuse DE Chandler Jones is a hot commodity right now. This is nothing new for NFL teams, who have rated him highly for quite some time, but it's a noticeable development in mock drafts, many of which initially had him pegged as a second-rounder. Most of the good defensive ends/pass rushers, including Jones, should come off the board sometime between pick No. 10 (Buffalo Bills) and pick No. 20 (Tennessee Titans). Jones is not a sudden riser -- he's been a very good player for years. Watch him play two seasons ago against Anthony Castonzo -- the Indianapolis Colts' first-round pick (No. 22 overall) in 2011 -- and it's easy to rate him as a top prospect.

5. I believe there will be many trades made in the first round. With all the pass rushers going from 10-20, there will be a lot of action in this range.

6. I believe Alabama DE/OLB Coutney Upshaw might slip out of the first round. The key team on this front is the Cincinnati Bengals. If they don't take Upshaw with either of their first-round picks (Nos. 17 and 21), he could last until Round 2 because many teams still lack a clear understanding of what position he will play in the league.

7. I believe there are more teams infatuated with Memphis defensive tackle Dontari Poe than any other player. He is rare -- not only in terms of size and speed, but also in his willingness to work hard on improving his skill set. His solid character is making a big difference, and many teams are willing to take a chance on developing his raw ability.

8. I believe there are more teams in the league that don't think Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon is a true No. 1 receiver than do. This is not to say he's a poor player, but he is not a rare talent, not overwhelmingly special.

9. I believe the Miami Dolphins will in fact take Ryan Tannehill with the eighth pick. This is not a smoke screen. The quarterback that the Dolphins want their fan base to believe in will be the quarterback for their future.

10. I believe that everyone should expect the unexpected Thursday night. Teams must be prepared for anything, and then react accordingly. I believe the best drafting teams are the ones that never go into a draft needing one particular player. A team's love must be spread among multiple players, because there are 31 other teams out there with potentially similar feelings on a prospect.

As always, the draft will be an exciting time. It's my favorite time of the offseason for good reason.
 
The First Fifteen: Draft insights

By Eric Edholm

We take a look at the key story lines leading up to Thursday’s first round of the 2012 NFL draft.

1. Chances are that when we look back in five years, 10 years, 20, how many ever years, this will be known as the Andrew Luck-Robert Griffin III draft. Trent Richardson might be an Adrian Peterson-like runner, and Morris Claiborne could turn into the next Darrelle Revis, for all we know now. There are plenty of talented players to consider. But quarterbacks are the biggest thing going, and these two top dogs are the story here. We’ll be dissecting their careers from Jump Street, so here in this space we’ll keep it to a minimum. One thought, passed on from a longtime league evaluator who has seen extensive work from both quarterbacks. Paraphrasing a conversation we had last week, he had a few interesting thoughts. The evaluator’s take: Griffin, not Luck, will be the player who makes the more immediate splash. Despite all the talk that Luck is the more ready-made pro, the evaluator thinks RG3’s skills fit the Redskins’ offense “ideally” (his careful word choice) and that Luck will have less to work with, especially on his O-line, in Indy. He had questions about what was in front of Griffin but thought the Baylor QB was very strong inside the pocket in college and would have no problem working behind a slightly suspect group. Anyway, it was an interesting — and maybe slightly contrarian — view on the league’s two biggest names. And one final thing to think about: Quarterbacks have gone 1-2 four times in NFL history, and only two of those pairs (Jim Plunkett and Archie Manning, 1971; Drew Bledsoe and Rick Mirer, 1993) were both what you would call non-busts, although none of the four is a Hall of Famer. Tim Couch (drafted before Donovan McNabb in 1999) and Ryan Leaf (just after Peyton Manning in 1998) are two of the more famous busts in recent NFL history.

2. On to the lingering drama … There’s intrigue at Nos. 3, 4, 5 and 6, even though those picks might be taking some tangible shape. The Vikings appear to be picking between USC OLT Matt Kalil and LSU’s Claiborne. If it were up to the people PFW’s Nolan Nawrocki has been talking to, the choice would be Kalil. And there’s sense in that, considering you want to protect your best assets in QB Christian Ponder and Peterson. But you also have you think about where you play. The Texans picked Mario Williams over the more heralded Reggie Bush because they needed a Manning hunter. The Vikings have a 30-year-old Jared Allen to chase down Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler for the next three years or so, but having a great cover corner might come in handy, too. It’s something to think about and something Vikings GM Rick Spielman and Co. no doubt have weighed heavily as they put their draft board in order next week. Trading down, as Spielman told me a few weeks ago, remains an option they’ll consider — even while they are on the clock.

3. So if the Vikings stay there and go with Kalil (as was the choice in our correspondents' mock draft), it sets up the Browns at No. 4 to take Richardson. Is it a QB-driven league? Yep. Do they need a receiver? Sure. But Richardson could be a franchise changer. He carried Alabama on his back to a national title, and most people agree he’s better than Mark Ingram was coming out and will be a better pro going forward. There are league trends and all of that, and you need a quarterback to win — period. But you also need warriors. You also need hope. Richardson could provide that. The Browns have Colt McCoy, and you can make a fair argument that (the Browns believe) he will never be special. But he can hold down the fort well if concussions are not a problem. Don’t forget about next season: The draft could include blue-chip QBs Matt Barkley, Landry Jones, Tyler Wilson and Geno Smith. We’ll get to them in six months or so. And the Browns might be able to get the perfect middle reliever in soon-to-be 29-year-old Brandon Weeden in the back half of the first round — they pick 22nd also and, rumor has it, will explore trading into the first round for a third first-round pick if the offensive tackle or receiver of their dreams also remains on the board. So that’s why Richardson makes the most sense — over the flavor of the month, Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill — and might be the most immediate help for a starved Browns franchise.

4. Tannehill is the draft’s mystery man. He’s done the media circuit, and his people have done a great job of building the hype. It’s there — like Cam Newton and his 280 Division-I attempts a year ago, there must be a fair amount of projecting when it comes to Tannehill and his 19 college starts. But scouts see the athleticism, the arm action and the smarts, and they understandably get excited. He’s in play at No. 3 (if the Vikings trade down), at 4 (if the Browns pull the trigger) and at 8 to the Dolphins and anywhere in the next few picks, depending on what moves happen. Jacksonville (7) and Kansas City (11) appear to be trade-down type of teams. The consensus is that no way Tannehill falls past Seattle at 12, even though they signed Matt Flynn. The fascinating thing could happen if the Dolphins pass on Tannehill. Like the QB himself, they are one of the wild-card teams in this draft. Like the Ted Ginn pick a few years ago, I was told to prepare myself for anything to happen there and not assume it will be a QB.

5. One NFL decision maker had a fun text this weekend: “Gonna be fun to watch all the mock drafts blow up (this) weekend.” His point is that trades, maybe more than in the past few seasons, will be a big part of the first round. Teams would be more willing to move up in Round One now than in the past because of the fact that top-10 picks no longer are earning top-shelf salaries; they are more than in line with above-average starters — as, really, they should be — coming into the league before having played a pro snap. Also, last year, veterans were not able to be traded on draft weekend (only picks) because of the labor strife and moratorium on player movement. It led to only four trades involving first-round picks. (The years with the most trades involving first-rounders, for what it’s worth, were 1995 with 15 and 2001 with 14.) But another wrinkle that could change the draft-trade dynamic is the fact that first-round picks will sign four-year deals with a fifth-year option. For top-10 picks, that option would come at the NFL’s transition number, paid an average of the top 10 salaries at his respective position (the one he played the most snaps at during his third year in the league). For picks 11-32, however, that number drops to an average of the third through 25th salaries at the position he played most at in Year Three. That could come out to a few million dollars’ difference. Never underestimate teams’ considerations for finances when you consider whom they might pick and what moves they might make.

6. Last year was a pretty good draft when you think about it. From Newton (Rookie of the Year) to the final few picks of the draft with guys such as Bill Nagy (pick No. 252, who was a starter before getting hurt) and Chris Neild (two sacks in 16 games played as a backup nose tackle). Four quarterbacks started at least 10 games as rookies, and none had more interceptions than touchdowns. There were no dominant runners, but six backs had more than 100 carries and three with more than 50 carries averaged more than five yards a rush. A.J. Green was a star in Year One, and several more receivers were very strong. Julio Jones and Torrey Smith lived up to the hype, and Greg Little, Doug Baldwin (undrafted) and Titus Young came on as non-first-rounders. OLs Tyron Smith and Mike Pouncey looked like future anchors, and Nate Solder, Stefen Wisniewski, Danny Watkins and others could join that group soon. Aldon Smith, Von Miller and Ryan Kerrigan became feared pass rushers from Day One. The highly rated D-linemen (Marcell Dareus, J.J. Watt and Phil Taylor among them) stood out. Patrick Peterson might not yet be a shutdown corner, but he was a four-TD punt returner. Heck, even kickers (Dallas’ Dan Bailey) had their moments. It was a strong draft class now that we’ve had a year to marinate and rethink what transpired.

7. Now that teams have had a chance to put the players on their board for this year, step back a bit and look … this might be a fairly average draft. Yes, it feels like we have said this, what, eight of the past 10 years. But it has the feel of a good but hardly great crop — even if Luck and Griffin become stars. Guards such as Stanford’s David DeCastro rarely see the top 20. One reason is because he’s a great football player (Cardinal offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton described him to me as an Olin Kreutz clone, and that’s lofty praise indeed). But the last time a guard found himself that high was Shawn Andrews (16th) in 2004. That also was a fabulous QB draft (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger) with some high-pick misses and some real failures in the back half of the first round. But that draft class was pure excellence compared to the only other time a guard went that high in Round One, back in 2001. It featured Hall of Fame types in LaDainian Tomlinson and Richard Seymour and next-level talent such as Michael Vick, Justin Smith and Casey Hampton, but also a host of colossal busts. Guessing this year’s class is somewhere in between the strength of ’04 and the very mixed bag of ’01.

8. So who needs a big draft this weekend (besides everyone)? Really, though, there are a few teams with first-round picks who probably need to come up big. Jacksonville (No. 7) is in a tough spot in what appears to be a top tier of players that includes five or six guys, depending on whom you speak with. Could one of them magically fall if Tannehill goes early? Sure. But you get the idea they could go a little off the map if they stay put — something similar to the Tyson Alualu pick a few years ago. The Dolphins (8) have been taking it on the chin most of the offseason, and there doesn’t seem to be a clear path to greatness unless the bizarre occurs. Let’s assume for a minute that Tannehill is not the guy. Could they be a Michael Floyd team? Hey, it’s possible. Could they stun everyone and take S Mark Barron? That’s about the earliest Barron would go off the board, and it would crush the Cowboys and Jets, picking a bit further down the line. Maybe a trade comes in here. Those Cowboys and Jets also face some pressure to get better. It’s amazing how many people appear to be in line to pick the Jets going 7-9 or 8-8, and the Cowboys might finish anywhere, first to fourth, in the NFC East, which might be back to its formerly great level in 2012. The other interesting wrinkle: The Jets and Cowboys (employing coaches named Ryan, it turns out) might be seeking the same 3-4 defensive players. We could see some dueling between two of the more gutsy and aggressive Draft Day brokers in Jerry Jones and Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum. Expect some kind of maneuvering involving these teams.

9. You’ve got Justin Blackmon and Floyd, both of whom could be top-10 picks (the last Notre Dame receiver taken in the top 10 was Tim Brown, in 1988) and don’t figure to escape the top 15. The rest of the position looks talented and deep, too, but as Nawrocki notes, there are questions about every one of them. Rueben Randle, Stephen Hill and Kendall Wright are three completely different receivers, and each of them has a chance to make the top 32. So does fast-rising Coby Fleener, who is seen as a detached Y-receiver with a smallish body for an in-line tight end. But will any of these guy, Blackmon and Floyd included, be great? As in Calvin Johnson/Larry Fitzgerald/Andre Johnson great? “I’d say no,” was the response I got via email from an NFL personnel man. “The ceiling is just below for (Blackmon and Floyd) and maybe Hill, but you don’t know how long it will take with him.” Anytime a player averages 29 yards a catch, as Hill did, you take notice. His Combine workout was drool-worthy, too. But it remains to be seen if he can be great right away.”

10. So which players are ready to contribute right away? It’s hard not to find an anonymous scout saying that Boston College ILB Luke Kuechly will be a 150-tackle performer as a rookie. We know about Luck and Griffin. Richardson and probably Kalil, too. DeCastro and Mississippi State DT Fletcher Cox appear to be ready to roll now, and the teams drafting OTs Cordy Glenn and Reilly Reiff probably envision them as Day One starters. Hard to imagine Blackmon or Floyd struggling mightily right away. Same with Barron and Notre Dame’s Harrison Smith at safety. But here’s another player to think about being a Week One starter, even if his stock is a bit cool right now: At least one evaluator thinks Alabama ILB Dont’a Hightower has special talent, which you would translate to immediate production in some form or another.

11. And on the flip side, which players could take longer to contribute? We’ve got obvious choices in players such as Tannehill, but it appears that the defensive line might really be the biggest boom-or-bust position going this year. Cox seems fairly safe to project, but the other top talents not so much. The knock on Memphis NT Dontari Poe and LSU DT Michael Brockers is that their immense upside sits in the form of physical skill and has yet to really materialize in games. With Poe, he’s a freakish athlete, but his production was hardly commensurate, considering the conference he played in. Brockers faced off against more seasoned talent in the SEC, but he, too, needs to improve as a player. DEs Quinton Coples and Melvin Ingram are serious wild cards, as well, and no one has a clue where they will land. Chandler Jones might land with a 3-4 team in Round One, but he had 10 sacks at Syracuse for his career. Jerel Worthy, Kendall Reyes, Nick Perry and Whitney Mercilus — they all carry some real risk. Expect the defensive line, as it often is, to be one of the biggest bust positions when we look back years later. There are few sure things like Watt in this class.

12. You’ve probably noticed a running theme here. Richardson. Barron. Hightower. Throw in OLB Courtney Upshaw and CB Dre Kirkpatrick, and you have five Alabama players who could land in Round One. That would not be a record, however. The 2004 Miami (Fla.) class of Sean Taylor, Kellen Winslow, Jonathan Vilma, D.J. Williams, Vernon Carey and Vince Wilfork will continue to hold the title at six. (Amazing, too, that none of them can be considered true draft busts.) I talked to Winslow about that team for a feature that never quite materialized — but someday could. A snippet of what he said on that 2001 team that produced so much talent: “It was the best team I ever played on, even in the pros,” he said. “You really don’t know … we knew we were good. We knew we were the best. But you really don’t appreciate it until you leave. You didn’t know how good it was until you leave. We were so good. We went against each other every day. We were so close.” I have a feeling we could be talking about the ’Bama kids this way one day. Not quite to the Miami level but not far off, either.

13. South Carolina has had only nine first-round picks in its history (and none since CB Johnathan Joseph in 2006), but that number could be 11 after Thursday. Ingram might not be the top-10 pick he once was pegged to be, but he won’t fall far. But the real riser is CB Stephon Gilmore. One of the more hotly debated prospects in the draft, Gilmore could rise all the way up to No. 7 and Jacksonville. An insider told Nawrocki that he sees Gilmore as a second-round player on tape, and it could just be that the need for cornerbacks is so great in this day and age that he goes in Round One anyway. The position is muddled after Claiborne. Kirkpatrick should be a top-40 pick but could go as high as the teens. If Janoris Jenkins had no character questions — but, lo, he has plenty — he might be second at the position. Heck, he still might. Then you have a series of smaller-school players and a guy who was arrested last weekend for allegedly beating up a cop. As I said, a mess of a position to sort out.

14. It’s always interesting to see the division of talent on offense and defense at the top of a draft. Last year was an even split — 16 on each side of the ball — for offense and defense. Since 1990, there never have been more than 19 players taken in the first round from either side in a single draft. If you take a look at PFW’s exclusive draft value board, which places players into tiers within each round, Nawrocki projects another halves draft with 16 on each side. But if you look just a bit deeper, to the 2A (early second round) and 2B (mid-second) categories, you’ll see 12 players on defense in those slots and only seven on offense on the corresponding tiers. A sign that maybe the late first round and early second round could be dominated by defense? Perhaps.

15. For the diehards — and we at PFW salute you — there are always the later rounds, which separate the diehards from the casual fans. To those of you who watch every pick, we’ll be right there alongside you. But even armchair NFL historians know that in recent years there have been gems to be had in the fifth (Rodney Harrison, Joe Horn, Robert Mathis, Michael Turner), sixth (Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Birk, Terrell Davis) and seventh (Marques Colston, Jay Ratliff, Donald Driver) rounds. The same will be true this year — and there probably will be a few gems who go undrafted altogether. It’s the way the draft goes: inexact science at its finest. So as you mine your way through the wee hours of Saturday’s picks, check out the names of a few developmental defensive linemen of note. Keep in mind some lesser-known pass-rush prospects who could surprise. Looking for the next Brian Waters or Jeff Saturday? Here are some lower-round blockers to follow. Seeking the next Horn or Colston or Miles Austin? Check out these obscure receivers of promise. And, of course, if your can team use a kicker or punter — and this, traditionally, is the area of the draft where they are picked — then it would do well to look between the hedges for these two excellent prospects.
 
Insider: Hightower has 'special' talent

By Nolan Nawrocki

The following quotes are from NFL executives, coaches and front-office personnel, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

• "(Alabama LB) Dont'a Hightower had a great individual workout for us. We would not take him. He’d play end or "Mike" linebacker for us, and he’s going to be long gone. He’s a top-15 pick. I wish his instincts were better. But anyone who worked him out had to come away very impressed. He can really move for a man his size. He has some ‘special’ traits."

• "Look at the sack production of (Syracuse DE) Chandler Jones and tell me what there is to get excited about. He can’t beat blocks with burst. He’s a stack guy — not a sack guy. He’s not going to produce as a pass rusher, but if you’re looking for a good run defender, he can help you."

• "(Vanderbilt's Sean) Richardson is not a safety. He’s an outside linebacker for us. He has no cover skills. If you want a hitter only, he can help in the box."

• "I thought (LSU CB) Ron Brooks would be a great seventh-round pick in the fall. He was not even starting. I was hoping we’d be able to swipe one. Then he runs and tests and shot up (draft boards). I’ve heard teams talking about him in the third (round). I think they’ll sober up when the time comes and he’ll wind up somewhere in the fourth or fifth (round)."

• "(Virginia Tech’s Jayron) Hosley is not a bad player, but he has some of the same issues that DeAngelo Hall and Jimmy Williams had. He’s not very smart."

• "(Montana’s) Trumaine Johnson might be better than (Morris) Claiborne — and I really like Claiborne’s cover talent. If (Johnson) had run (a 40-time of) 4.51 instead of the 4.6s that he ran at the Combine, he would go in the first (round). He’s 6-1, 210 and he’s really a good athlete. He has 10-20 (range) talent. He’s just a (jerk). He has entitlement issues. He’s not a great worker. … He’s inching up. He might go in the back of the first (round)."

• "The more I watch (Notre Dame’s) Harrison (Smith) from Notre Dame, the more I do not think he is a slam dunk at all. I bought in initially, but he cannot catch. He has below-average hands. He can’t tackle in space. He’s just going to be a guy in the league."

• "I know (Illinois’ Whitney) Mercilus is a good kid, but the first round is a little too pricey for me. I went back and watched him some more. Something is missing. He’s athletic and can bend, but I’m not sure how instinctive he is."

• "Is Cleveland getting a lot of pressure from the owner to take a quarterback yet? This is the third year with the Big Show (Mike Holmgren) running it, and I don’t think they can go 5-11 again, can they? They will if it’s Colt McCoy running (the offense). I think they have to reach early and take a quarterback in the first (round)."

• "No. 99 (Michigan State’s Jerel Worthy) is big, strong and fast. If you catch him in the right games, you’re thinking about him in the top 10-15. He has that kind of talent."
 
Ryan Tannehill, Dontari Poe headline overrated draft prospects

By Bucky Brooks NFL.com

Analyst

I've often wondered how different the NFL draft would look if it was conducted closer to the conclusion of college football's regular season.

Scouts would have to base their opinions solely off game tape and avoid the influence of the NFL Scouting Combine and pre-draft workouts. While those events are important in the evaluation process, the image of watching top prospects perform in shorts and T-shirts can prompt evaluators to overestimate the pro potential of players who haven't consistently produced at an elite level on tape.

Coaches, in particular, are prone to become enamored with prospects after watching them perform in person. Coaches routinely believe they have the ability to unlock a player's untapped potential with proper instruction and scheming, which leads some teams to select guys higher than their value based on tape study.

With the draft only a week away and the scouting community buzzing about the rise of a handful of players on draft boards across the league, here are five prospects who are overrated at this point of the process:



1. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M: Tannehill has become one of the most debated prospects in the scouting community following his ascension up the charts in recent weeks. His supporters see an athletic quarterback with outstanding physical tools and potential, but some scouts harbor concerns about his limited game experience and indecisiveness in the pocket. While the desperation for finding a franchise quarterback routinely boosts the value of prospects with potential, Tannehill's game currently falls short of normal top-10 expectations.

2. Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis: After dazzling scouts with his impressive combination of size, strength and athleticism at the combine, Poe has experienced a meteoric rise up the charts in most war rooms. He has been pegged as a candidate to come off the board within the first 10 picks, but his lackluster production on tape should raise concerns about his ability to make an immediate impact as a pro.



3. Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina: Gilmore quietly has vaulted into top-20 consideration after a solid set of workouts during the offseason. Coaches and scouts are enchanted by his size, athleticism and toughness, but Gilmore didn't stand out as an elite cover corner when studying his tape. He lacks the tools and technical savvy to lock down talented receivers in isolated matchups (man coverage), which makes projecting Gilmore as a premier cover corner problematic in my opinion.

4. Doug Martin, RB, Boise State: Martin's stock is rising rapidly following impressive showings at the Senior Bowl and combine. Evaluators envision him blossoming into a productive feature back in a power-based offense, but Martin doesn't display elite traits (speed, quickness and body control) as a runner on tape. While Martin's size and production certainly merit consideration early in the draft, he is a good (but not great) player who lacks the traditional skills associated with elite runners.

5. Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State: Pass rushers are valued at a premium in the NFL, so prospects flashing the ability to get to the quarterback fly up the charts as the draft approaches. McClellin displayed an uncanny knack for creating havoc off the edge during the regular season and at the East-West Shrine Game, but he is not a pure pass rusher with the size and speed to consistently win against big, imposing offensive tackles. His production has been a byproduct of the Broncos' clever defensive scheme, rather than his individual talent. For a team expecting a dominating pass rusher with game-changing skills, McClellin's workmanlike game might not produce the results to match his draft status.
I dont get the Tannehill love, but after that Bucky leaves me :mellow: ....I think theyre highly touted and/or late risers for a reason
 
Draft Buzz -- ASU had 2 players test positive, Buffalo bluffing, SD trying to trade up for Barron

By Rob Rang | The Sports Xchange/CBSSports.com

According to multiple league sources, there were six players who failed the NFL's drug test at the 2012 Scouting Combine.

It had been previously reported by Jason LaCanfora of The NFL Network that Ohio State offensive tackle Mike Adams had tested positive for marijuana. Today, Jay Glazer of Fox, reported that Arizona State middle linebacker Vontaze Burfict and Virginia Tech cornerback Jayron Hosley had also been busted.

NFLDraftScout.com has since confirmed these reports and can add that the Arizona State Sun Devils didn't just have one player test positive for a banned substance, but two, as defensive end Jamaar Jarrett also tested positive.

The news isn't good for the 6-5, 265 pound Jarrett, who as NFLDraftScout.com's No. 34 rated defensive end and No. 439th rated prospect overall, was hardly viewed as a sure-fire draftable prospect in the first place.

In other interesting news, the Buffalo Bills are attempting to drum up interest in their No. 10 overall pick by leaking information that they're considering taking a defensive player (Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly and Alabama safety Mark Barron).

Sources, however, indicate that this is "total BS" and that the club will be taking an offensive player if unable to trade out.

While the team would appear to need help at offensive tackle, I've been told their two top-rated offensive tackles are Southern California's Matt Kalil and Stanford's Jonathan Martin. Should Kalil somehow fall to them, the Bills, I'm told you snatch him up. They aren't in love with the idea of taking Martin at 10, though they will strongly consider him should they trade down. I'm also told that the Bills are also "very high" on Notre Dame wideout Michael Floyd and will strongly consider him if unable to move out of the No. 10 overall pick.

One of the teams that has contacted the Bills and others about trading up is the San Diego Chargers. The team is specifically targeting Barron, I'm told, and feel that there is very little chance that the All-American will slip past the Dallas Cowboys, owners of the No. 14 overall pick.

San Diego, currently picking 18th, would appear to have concerns along the offensive line, pass-rusher and cornerback, as well at safety. There is no player in the draft, however, they feel can come in and make an immediate impact at a position of need like Barron.

Considering the aggressive trades general manager A.J. Smith has made in the past -- including two years ago to nab running back Ryan Matthews -- the news that San Diego is looking to make a splashy move isn't at all surprising.
 
Draft overview: After top two picks, get ready for drama

By Frank Cooney | NFLDraftScout.com Senior Analyst

Following months of analyzing, re-analyzing and micro-analyzing, the start of the NFL's 2012 college player draft Thursday night will be an almost uncomfortable anti-climax when the prime time show opens with a 1-2 punch that was telegraphed for so long that the only knockout it can score is against intrigue.

After those first two picks are announced, the real drama finally begins.

The Indianapolis Colts already announced they will use the first pick to take Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, whose job will be to resurrect an offense led for so long by Peyton Manning, who is now trying to extend his career with the Denver Broncos.

The Washington Redskins went all in -- giving the St. Louis Rams a first and second pick this year and first picks the next two years -- to get the No. 2 spot in this draft so they can have Baylor Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Robert Griffin III.

With the predetermined cream of the crop officially selected, it will fall to the Minnesota Vikings to begin the real drama of this draft at No. 3.

And in the first draft after a collective bargaining agreement that severely limits rookie contracts, a new perspective will be placed on how to value players and positions. It will be far less of a financial burden to have a top-10 pick. So, beginning with the Vikings, who all but advertised a willingness to trade their No. 3 spot on Craig's List, it will be interesting to see how and why teams trade up or down.

This could re-value draft worthiness of an exceptional offensive lineman, running back, defensive back or wide receiver, whose allure may have impacted in recent drafts by either the concept of supply and demand or, especially in the case of quarterbacks, just sheer cost.

And the Vikings are counting on teams willing to swap several draft picks to move up and get just such players, as they are conspicuously examples available for the taking at each of those positions.

According to final ratings by NFLDrafScout.com, the parade of talent after Luck and RG3 marches in this order -- No. 3, Southern Cal offensive tackle Matt Kalil; No. 4, Alabama running back Trent Richardson; No. 5, LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne; No. 6, Oklahoma wide receiver Justin Blackmon.

And, after Mississippi defensive tackle Fletcher Cox at No. 7, there is Texas A&M wide receiver-turned-quarterback Ryan Tannehill, easily the fastest rising and most controversial pick in the draft, sitting neatly in the No. 8 position where the quarterback-needy Miami Dolphins are picking. Or, at least that is where they are situated before the draft begins.

The Vikings certainly could use Kalil, but offensive linemen are traditionally found with lower picks and this is a team that has needs at more than one position.

Although running backs have been devalued in the pass-oriented NFL and there are six in this draft deemed good enough to be taken in the first two rounds, Richardson is special. Many teams believe he is the best running back to come along since Adrian Peterson, who was taken seventh overall by the Vikings in 2007.

Cornerback and wide receiver are two of the strongest positions at the top of the 2012 draft. Eleven corners and a dozen receivers have the potential to be taken in the first two rounds. But athletes with big-play ability are a premium, and that's why Claiborne is especially prized as a corner and Blackmon as a receiver.

Almost every year, the third-ranked quarterback is the fastest rising player as the draft nears. Tannehill is that quarterback this year. The lure of a potential franchise quarterback, even if he needs time to fine tune his skills, could make some team trade up and pay up to get Tannehill. This may even get the attention of the Cleveland Browns, who are sitting at No. 4 and run by team president Mike Holmgren, himself an underappreciated quarterback when he graduated from USC.

Holmgren, known to be a sharp poker player himself, knows there's value in either keeping or trading his team's No. 4 spot, too. Perhaps the Vikings and Browns already have their players picked or their deals sealed.

No offense meant against the Colts and Luck or the Redskins and RG3, but the real personality of the 2012 draft will probably be determined by what happens after they are picked and the Vikings, then the Browns are on the clock.
 
Bills looking to make move up for Matt Kalil?

By Gregg Rosenthal NFL.com

Around The League editor

Right or wrong, conventional wisdom now seems to believe that the Vikings will pass on USC left tackle Matt Kalil. There has been a lot of speculation this week about where Kalil could drop to if Minnesota does indeed choose not to select him.

The Browns are set at left tackle at No. 4. The Bucs pay Donald Penn a lot of money at No. 5. And perhaps that would be a big enough slide for the Bills to get into the mix.

NFL Network's Charley Casserly wrote on Twitter Wednesday that the Bills are interested in trading up for Kalil. Casserly says the Bills would give up a second-round pick to make the move. We'd think that would be enough to get them as high as No. 6 or perhaps even higher.

(If this happened, Bills fans' excitement for this season will go through the roof.)

ProFootballTalk.com later confirmed the report and added that the Bills would like to trade down from No. 10 if they can't land Kalil. (No tackles except Kalil are deemed worthy of such a pick.) The team's reported interest in safety Mark Barron is apparently an effort to get folks to trade up with Buffalo.

The NFL is simply a better league with the Bills as a factor. After this offseason, the Bills are a factor.
 
What will we be talking about Friday morning?

By Gregg Rosenthal NFL.com

Around The League editor

I said goodbye to my wife and baby daughter early this morning, knowing that I won't really see them again until Saturday evening.

My home the next three days: Radio City Music Hall, with mornings spent at the nearby NFL offices. We will be cranking Around the League content with great behind-the-scenes access throughout the draft. So what will we be talking about here at this time tomorrow?

A run in the secondary

Last year, the big story was quarterbacks Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder all getting drafted earlier than expected. This year's run will be in the secondary. Stephon Gilmore and Mark Barron may sneak into the top ten, Dre Kirkpatrick could get pushed into the top 15, and even Janoris Jenkins' talent may be tough to ignore in the first round.

Matt Kalil's slide

It's amazing that conventional wisdom no longer expects the Vikings to take Kalil at No. 3 overall. Whether the Bills trade up for Kalil or not, look for us to be talking about the great "value" some team got when they snapped Kalil up.

Dolphins get their man

The long-discussed Ryan Tannehill-to-Miami marriage happens, and the Dolphins don't have to trade up to get him.

The boom-or-bust defensive linemen

Dontari Poe, Michael Brockers, and Quinton Coples are all exceedingly talented. And there are major questions about the lack of production from all three players. Their draft stock dipped throughout the process, but these are the types of guys that teams usually can't pass on for long.

The leftover quarterbacks

The Browns may like Brandon Weeden, but no one thinks he'll go in the first round. Kirk Cousins and Brock Osweiler figure to be forgotten too. After Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick went at the top of round two last year, there will be a lot of speculation about teams angling for Weeden and Cousins.

Michael Floyd goes ahead of Justin Blackmon

Both are good, not great, wide receiver prospects. Floyd has a more pro-ready skill set that could appeal to the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 7 when Blackmon is on the board.

The Jaguars pick

Whether Jacksonville takes Floyd or not, look for the Jaguars to throw the draft's first curveball at No. 7. GM Gene Smith thinks differently than the rest of the league and trusts his evaluation. It's hard not to respect that.

Mock Drafts

Oh, wait. No one will be talking about mock drafts. After months and months of variations on the theme, every mock draft completed since December will be completely forgotten and no one will particularly care who predicted the first round well.

The only mocks anyone will pay attention to on Friday will be the inevitable round two and three mock drafts that come out on Friday. Chad Reuter, you're up.
 
2012 NFL Draft: Last-minute buzz heading into Thursday night

By Chad Reuter NFL Network

NEW YORK -- It happens every year.

After months of studying players, talking with team officials and analyzing how the first round of the NFL draft might play out ... it all changes in the last couple of days before the event begins.

Teams stop being so close to the vest with their information, partially to start trade conversations, but also because team meetings have concluded and franchises have finally zeroed in the players they deem worthy of multi-million dollar investments.

Last year, for example, it did not become apparent that four quarterbacks would be taken in the top 12 picks until the day before the draft. The Tennessee Titans ended up selecting Jake Locker and the Minnesota Vikings took Christian Ponder, despite their inconsistency and injury issues, respectively.

So, here's the last-minute draft buzz making the rounds this year. A few items would've seemed highly unrealistic just one month ago. Some or none of this of this could come to fruition. This unpredictability is what makes the NFL draft so watchable.

• Minnesota takes CB Morris Claiborne at No. 3. If former NFL defensive back and current Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier gets his way, he and general manager Rick Spielman will throw out the idea of picking USC left tackle Matt Kalil to protect their first-round pick from 2011 (quarterback Christian Ponder). Claiborne gives them a chance to match up better with elite receivers in their division: Green Bay Packers' star Greg Jennings, new Chicago Bears threat Brandon Marshall and, of course, Detroit Lions beast Calvin Johnson.

• South Carolina CB Stephon Gilmore goes in the top 10. Whether it's the Jacksonville Jaguars with the seventh pick or the Carolina Panthers at nine, a team may agree with Minnesota that the position is too important in today's game to ignore. Six-foot-tall cornerbacks with 4.4 speed like Gilmore don't grow on trees.

• The Philadelphia Eagles trade into the top 10 to pick a defensive tackle. Andy Reid and the Eagles moved up in the first round in 2003 (to get DE Jerome McDougle), 2004 (OT Shawn Andrews), 2009 (WR Jeremy Maclin) and 2010 (DE Brandon Graham). They have an extra second-round pick from the Kevin Kolb trade as ammunition, so look for a move to get a defensive tackle to rush the passer (Mississippi State's Fletcher Cox) and/or shore up the run defense (LSU's Michael Brockers or Memphis' Dontari Poe).

• The Dallas Cowboys make a move. In six of the past 10 drafts, the Cowboys have moved up or down in the first round; in two of the past four, they moved up to select cornerback Mike Jenkins (2008) and wide receiver Dez Bryant (2010). If they want safety Mark Barron, Cox (as a 3-4 defensive end), receiver Michael Floyd or Gilmore, they'll make the call to get into the top 10. Jacksonville and Carolina are the two teams likely to say "yes" to trade offers with Dallas, Philadelphia or anyone else looking to be bold.

• Boston College LB Luke Kuechly goes higher than expected. Tampa Bay at No. 5, Jacksonville at 7, Carolina at 9 and Buffalo at 10 are all potential landing spots for the talented Mr. Kuechly. His NFL Scouting Combine workout proved he is athletic enough to run to the ball and make plays in coverage. Remember that Green Bay selected A.J. Hawk with the fifth overall pick in 2006 and Seattle picked Aaron Curry fourth in 2009, two linebackers considered "safe picks" early in the draft.

• Alabama LB Dont'a Hightower goes higher than expected. If the Chiefs can't get Kuechly, then the 6-foot-2, 265-pound Hightower may be the perfect answer to play either inside next to Derrick Johnson or outside to be another pass-rush threat alongside Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. The versatility he showed while in Nick Saban's multiple-front defense at Alabama makes him very intriguing to NFL teams running similar systems.

• Syracuse DE/OLB Chandler Jones comes off the board in the first 12 picks. Last year, people didn't think Missouri DE/OLB Aldon Smith would go as high as No. 7, but the San Francisco 49ers picked him there and used him as an impact pass-rush specialist. (Smith posted 14 sacks last season.) Carolina (ninth pick), Buffalo (10) and Seattle (12) are all potential landing spots for the brother of Baltimore Ravens defensive lineman Arthur Jones and UFC light heavyweight champion Jon "Bones" Jones because of his genetic athleticism, size, length and upside.

• Brandon Weeden goes No. 22 to the Cleveland Browns. Assuming the Browns are not interested in taking Ryan Tannehill and that they think Weeden is a better future signal caller than Colt McCoy, they may just take him with their second first-round pick at No. 22, eliminating the risk that another quarterback-hungry team (Bills, Cardinals, Chiefs, Eagles) could trade ahead of them later in the first or early in the second round.

• Ole Miss LT/RT Bobby Massie is selected in the first round. The Steelers, Texans, Ravens and Giants could all use help at offensive tackle, and the long, athletic Massie's potential to make the switch to left tackle might push him up boards. The slide of Ohio State tackle Mike Adams, potentially out of the first round, may also help Massie's case.

• Midwestern State OG Amini Silatolu goes in the first round. Scouts were disappointed Silatolu could not participate at the Senior Bowl due to a hamstring injury, but his film (even against Division II competition) created enough buzz that the Steelers could select him with the 24th overall pick. Baltimore (29) and San Francisco (30) also need interior line help and could add the runner-up for the 2011 Gene Upshaw Award (the honor for the top Division II offensive lineman was won by Joe Long, brother of Miami Dolphins left tackle Jake Long).
 

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