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Best - ???
I am curious about your thoughts on Lacy. Your rookie rankings and general rookie ranking philosophy are very close to my own. I wonder what finds us at the opposite side of the Lacy divide.
Draft position (4th RB off the board, grabbed by a GB team that had already passed on him in the second by trading down) backed up by a highly-rated 4th rounder (who Green Bay traded up to get), going to a team that hasn't had a hundred yard rusher in years and who loves running their QB at the goal line. I know Lacy can run the ball, but I'm extremely worried about his red flags- character concerns have sunk many talented players, and if his toe really has been fused, that's potentially a huge, huge deal (and likely the reason he almost fell out of the second round entirely.)He's certainly got the upside to make me look foolish, but there is so much risk in his profile his bust chance has to be significantly elevated.
Thanks for sharing. The toe is a concern, as some teams took him off their board. But said teams have the option of hundreds of players across 22+ positions – I’m looking at a much smaller pool of 4 positions and with strict, specific production in mind. I’m looking at the upside that caused the Packers to take him despite the reports of his toe, and seeing what he did at Bama as a senior after his toe surgery.
Sure, he's got huge upside, and he absolutely deserves to be a 1st rounder in every league. I'm just pointing out that "fused toe", "barely a 2nd rounder", "fourth player taken at his position", and "taken off the board entirely by several teams" are phrases that are not traditionally associated with top 3 rookie picks. Neither, for that matter, is "46 career receptions". In a field full of flawed prospects, the risk profile of a guy like Lacy or Patterson really stands out from the pack. Both guys are huge risks.
Neither is "5'8" WR" or "4.66 40." Everyone is a risk this year pick your poison. Did you have Ball ahead of Lacy pre-draft.
Are you saying 46 receptions is not a good total? IMO, 46 receptions is quite high for a college back especially one that was splitting time. Tomlinson, for example, came out of TCU with 43 career receptions. Everbody knows that Lacy has good hands.
Yeah, Austin is also riskier than most top picks simply due to the complete lack of historical comps, although that risk is hugely mitigated by the amount of draft capital St. Louis spent to acquire him (meaning he was evaluated as elite, and meaning they'll give him a lot of opportunities to succeed). That alone leaves him with a much lower risk profile than Lacy. I don't know if 4.66 40 speed makes an RB a bigger risk than his peers. It definitely affects draft position, but if you control for draft position, I don't know if a slower 40 correlates to a larger bust risk. Is a back with a 4.6 40 who gets taken with pick #60 more likely to bust than a back with a 4.4 40 who gets taken with pick #60? I don't know, although I suspect wdcrob might. Obviously the slow speed is a negative, but just as obviously the slow RB has plenty of other advantages to get drafted in the same place as the fast RB. Plenty of RBs have succeeded at the NFL level with slow 40 times- I'm sure I don't need to run down the list. I didn't have Ball ahead of Lacy pre-draft. I don't really do formal rookie rankings before the NFL draft, because I don't scout college enough to come up with anything remotely educated. A large variable in my rankings is draft position, which I use as a proxy for talent under the assumption that the NFL draft is a relatively efficient marketplace. I do believe that Ball is a significantly less risky investment than Lacy.thriftyrocker said:
I'm very interested in that first one. Do you think Lattimore will fall off hard after 5 years, or that Wilson will come on strong late?
We're looking 5-10 years down the line. Frankly, I doubt either is starting in 2023 and I don't think either will be a top 10 player in 2018.
