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2014 Suicide Pool Strategy Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter massraider
- Start date
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I was wondering the same thing, as I reviewed my survivor league... What's the norm, for ties?
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
WIN to advance.
seahawk 17
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Hoping the Cowpokes can eliminate a significant portion of my pool. 
Raiders, too.... though I'm always waiting for the ACME anvil to fall on their heads at any minute.
Raiders, too.... though I'm always waiting for the ACME anvil to fall on their heads at any minute.
FUBAR
Footballguy
the intro to the game on ESPN seems clear:
As esteemed ESPN colleague Herm Edwards likes to say, "You play to win the game." In the case of Eliminator Challenge, you play to pick the winner of one NFL game each week straight up. You don't have to worry about a point spread here. If you can successfully pick a winning team for all 17 weeks of the season, you're in good shape to win the grand prize.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Me burning Denver was worth the heart attack I would have had as JAX lined up for that FG.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Hoping the Cowpokes can eliminate a significant portion of my pool.
Raiders, too.... though I'm always waiting for the ACME anvil to fall on their heads at any minute.
It's just inevitable. Such a black cloud over this team.
John Bender
Footballguy
With youHoping the Cowpokes can eliminate a significant portion of my pool.
Raiders, too.... though I'm always waiting for the ACME anvil to fall on their heads at any minute.
It's just inevitable. Such a black cloud over this team.
Have the Cards today. WAs really rooting for your boys.
Let's go Cowpokes!!!!
Putting your season on SD @ OAK is crazy. These teams have a very ugly rivalry. It is not going to be a surprise if Oakland wins this game. Oakland +7 lock of the week.I like Seattle, but don't love them here. Still not quite sure about the prognosis on their defense -- was the SD game a simple road hiccup? Or a sign of bigger problems...That, plus, I'm still not sure quite what we've got with Dallas. I don't think the O is less talented than SD's, and I'm baffled by their D. I'm planning to stay as far away from DAL games as possible all year.
While I'm not exactly a huge fan of division games or road games, I can't see a path to victory for OAK over SD this week. I'm doubting it'll end as blowout-y as I want to believe, but still, I can't see SD losing.
So...
WK 1: PIT
WK 2: DEN
WK 3: NE
WK 4: IND
WK 5: GB
WK 6: SD
I am going with Seattle as them going 8-0 at home is a near lock.
I thought putting your season on a game involving this Dallas team was crazy. Looks like maybe we were both right. My craziness paid off.
Good luck these last three minutes w/SEA.
FUBAR
Footballguy
freeannyong
Footballguy
Well that didn't go as expected. At least Oakland +7 cashed.
Seattle just got manhandled. Gross underestimation of Dallas.
Seattle just got manhandled. Gross underestimation of Dallas.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Slowly but surely weeding out the risk-takers. I don't know about the rest of you, but my main pool has already lost 82% of the original number of entries, and we're only in week 6. Slow and steady wins this race. Survive and advance; keep selecting solid teams and let the other people take chances.
John Bender
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I see you. I wish there was like $50,000 in the pool so we could talk partnership.
Big Blue Wrecking Crew
downsized
For this week with my three picks, going SEA, SD, and CIN. Sadly, all have future value, but don't have a great comfort level with other options (SF on road; TEN - buyer beware...got bounced last year from my pool picking Houston over Jacksonville at home....when it's two bad teams, one never knows the outcome.
My only alternate thought is AZ with Palmer starting. But nervous about how rusty he may be...what do others think???
ARGH...down from 3 to 1...figures the week I play it safe is the bloodbath. Oh well...onward and upward with a single entry left:
Phi, Den, NE/Ind, Mia, Pit, SD
My only alternate thought is AZ with Palmer starting. But nervous about how rusty he may be...what do others think???
ARGH...down from 3 to 1...figures the week I play it safe is the bloodbath. Oh well...onward and upward with a single entry left:
Phi, Den, NE/Ind, Mia, Pit, SD
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seahawk 17
Footballguy
CBS League and the three of us that chose Cinci advanced.
We're down to four of us, so no more trying to be cute for me.
Of course, in order to take advantage of the newly resurgent Pats in their Thursday night divisional circus show, you need to still have them in your holster.
I used them back in Week 3 in that scary 16-9 win over the Raiders.
Let's take an early look at some other Week 7 options...
- Baltimore is currently favored by a touchdown against a Falcons team that just doesn't win on the road. Atlanta is 0-3 this season, they were 1-7 last season only defeating Buffalo in a neutral site game in Toronto... in OVERTIME. Meanwhile, the Ravens are one of the most consistent home favorites in the NFL... posting 6-2 home records or better every season since 2007. And they've already exhausted one of their annual two home losses to the Bengals. Other attractive opportunities to use the Ravens at home come in Week 10 vs. the Titans (a week that boasts a veritable smorgasbord of Suicide Pool options) and Week 15 vs. the Jaguars (a lot of home favorites that week as well - if you get there - albeit most are divisional games).
I rather like the prospects of Baltimore continuing their battery of the NFC South - they throttled the Panthers & Bucs to the tune of a combined score of 86-27. And you just know that Flacco will want to get one up on the one QB he's been compared with most since they both entered the league in 2008. Matt Ryan bested Flacco in their only ever matchup 26-21 back in Atlanta in 2010.
- Seattle has fallen out of the NFC West lead after being shocked at CenturyLink Field by the Cowboys and will get to feast on the Rams on a short week who are winless at home. Perhaps saving the Seahawks for a tasty home matchup isn't such a good idea; certainly didn't work out for people this week. Of course, St. Louis is a divisional opponent - but I don't see them having an answer for Seattle. The defending champs are now in 3rd place and will be in serious jeopardy of falling further out of the race if they fail to hold serve and replicate San Fran's dissection of the Rams. If you're going to use Seattle and have yet to do so, the tasty matchups evaporate after Week 10.
- This week's winner of the Jaguars bye week are the Browns - who are on quite a little hot streak of late after their monumental comeback against the Titans and their biggest beatdown of the Steelers in 25 years. Of course, one could make the argument that Cleveland is primed for a letdown game on the road against Jacksonville. Or Oakland in Week 8. Or Tampa Bay in Week 9. So many tasty matchups in store - and those other two are at home. Wins for this beleaguered franchise haven't come easy. But they've improved from one 2-game win streak per season in 2010 & 2011 to one 3-game win streak per season in 2012 & 2013... and this week would be Win #3. So perhaps the letdown comes in Week 8.
- Speaking of teams on a roll, the Packers have won 3 straight, are unbeaten at Lambeau and draw the Panthers. Of course, the Bengals were thought to be safe favorites at home against Carolina too... and we saw how that went. Carolina has no running backs... and that's how you beat Green Bay. Unfortunately, Carolina has Cam Newton. And the handcuffs have been removed from him with their RB contingent dismantled. I would steer clear if you still have the Pack (I already exhausted them as an option in Week 2).
- Arizona only seems to be a modest 4-point favorite on the road against the winless Raiders this week. I had originally plugged them in as my Week 7 team but that offensive explosion Oakland showed following their bye week for new coach Tony Sparano has to scare you. They almost beat the Chargers and only a last-minute touchdown drive with less than 2 minutes to go denied them their first win of the season. Perhaps it's worth saving the Cards for one of their divisional Rams games and not braving another road team scare against a Raiders team that may be close to figuring things out.
- You can entertain the Bills at home against the Vikes all you like. They won't be a bigger favorite any time soon. I sure as hell wouldn't trust them, though. Not with that atrocious and predictable play-calling.
- Similarly, I shouldn't need to tell you to avoid taking San Diego against their second consecutive "well-rested from their bye week" team in Kansas City. It may not be Arrowhead but the Chiefs always play the Chargers tough - even if they have lost 4 straight to them. Both of those losses last season were by a field goal. Chances are you've either used San Diego already or you've got them saved for Week 11.
- Lastly, the G-Men may have looked completely outmatched this week but I still wouldn't trust they'll put in a repeat embarrassment of a road performance against the Cowboys. 5-1 record or not, Dallas is a team I'm probably going to fade in Survival / Eliminator except for possibly Week 10 vs. Jacksonville in jolly old England. I don't want to be riding them the week DeMarco Murray gets hurt and Romo gets to start costing Dallas victories by throwing wild footballs again.
As of right now, I'm leaning towards taking Baltimore this week.
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Futz
Footballguy
Nice write up per usual. I was locked and loaded with Seattle but you do make a compelling argument for Baltimore. ATL is just so bi-polar on the road but what I really just don't like are all the weapons they possess. A few big plays and that game gets a little to scary for me because Flacco can be just as erratic. As you mentioned, dropping to third in the division has got to have Seattle's ire up and I see St. Louis taking it on the chin in a walkaway.
If you're looking for safe picks this week, I don't believe you'll find one safer than the Seahawks. The stats certainly back up Baltimore and while the Falcons boast scary firepower, they've boasted that firepower during their 10 consecutive defeats on another team's home field and it hasn't mattered. Their defense is hardly daunting but you're more likely to get a comfortable 32-7 game you can hit your snooze alarm for by taking Seattle.Futz said:
I'm just a touch worried on whether that loss to the Cowboys gets in their heads and they begin doubting themselves. Psychologically, this is not a path this Seahawks team has traveled. They haven't lost a home game that mattered in almost three years. We really don't have any information on how they'll respond.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
I refuse to pick AFC West division games, even when the Raiders are playing. They've been way too unpredictable in recent years.Lascelle said:
Likely going Baltimore in my big pool and Cleveland in my small one. Atlanta is dreadful on the road and has major O-Line issues. Jacksonville is likely to win at some point soon, but Cleveland should have a field day against them on the ground and give them few opportunities to score.
GreenBaySnackers
Footballguy
They lost at home to the Colts last year and bounced back just fine. The Cowboys are on a hot streak, Austin Davis is not.
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Futz
Footballguy
11 out of 12 people remaining have NOT used Seattle yet so I expect a heavy dose of them. It's tempting to zag while everyone else zigs here though. I just can't talk myself into another team.
Technically that Colts defeat in Week 5 of last season was at Lucas Oil in Indianapolis.
You're correct that they bounced back from it just fine.
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fantasy stud
Footballguy
In my pools, I feel really good about Baltimore this week. Seattle on the road at St. Louis is intriguing, but like to stay away from divisional road games. Buffalo at home against Minnesota would be third. But gosh, we are talking about buffalo here. Give me Baltimore and I hope to see week 8.
seahawk 17
Footballguy
I bleed blue and green, and there is no way I take Seattle this weekend. Offensive play calling is predictable, O-line and WR's are trash. Defense will be missing 2-4 starters. On top of that, historically Rams have given Seattle fits,
Don't see any problem in taking the Patriots this week. Might well be the best opportunity to use them the rest of the way.
Thinking long and hard about Dallas, here. It's a divisional tilt, but they're clearly the more talented team, are playing at the peak of their powers, have to be confident as hell coming off the big SEA win, and they're not likely to be looking ahead, since they have a long week with an extra day of practice coming up after. Jennings and Cruz will be on the shelf, just as added incentive.
My initial thought was SEA coming off the loss, playing for life and respect @ a woeful opponent. But now there are additional injury concerns, and I'm also worried that just about the only thing I can say about STL is that at least they've got a couple TE's that can hurt you.
And I'm always hesitant to pick against a team like ATL in one of these things. They suck, but I can't shake the feeling that they're always just a good night's sleep away from hanging an unexpected 45 points on any given opponent.
Brownies at JAX may be my #2 at the moment.
Will see how I feel come Saturday.
Thursday is irrelevant for me, since I burned the Pats and there's no way in hell I'm taking NYJ.
My initial thought was SEA coming off the loss, playing for life and respect @ a woeful opponent. But now there are additional injury concerns, and I'm also worried that just about the only thing I can say about STL is that at least they've got a couple TE's that can hurt you.
And I'm always hesitant to pick against a team like ATL in one of these things. They suck, but I can't shake the feeling that they're always just a good night's sleep away from hanging an unexpected 45 points on any given opponent.
Brownies at JAX may be my #2 at the moment.
Will see how I feel come Saturday.
Thursday is irrelevant for me, since I burned the Pats and there's no way in hell I'm taking NYJ.
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Baltimore or Green Bay if you have not used them yet.
FUBAR
Footballguy
FUBAR
Footballguy
used GB week 2.
Baltimore's doing well, but I'm not betting against Atlanta to bounce back. Actually, I don't have Baltimore selected for any game. That will probably change but I'm not sure when.
Futz
Footballguy
I burned them and luckily in the first couple of weeks. I simply don't trust them. It's all name recognition at this point and this team is a shell of what it once was. I think they can beat anyone OR lose to anyone in a given week.
You never know what you're going to get between jets vs patriots games. I'm avoiding that and most likely Seattle (thanks to seahawk17). Did the research and since Russell Wilson the Seahawks have had tough games at St. Louis. Last year the game was too close to feel comfortable, and that was with Kellen Clemens
bigbrownbag
Footballguy
I'm really leaning on Buffalo or Chicago. i feel like this is a great opportunity to use buffalo. Surprised there's not more mention. Maybe there's a lot of McKinnon owners in here?
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Buffalo is one of those teams where I'm trying to avoid picking for OR against them.
dbc925
Footballguy
I think that the farther you go in a suicide pool, you start to make arguments for why ANY game could possibly swing the wrong way. Week 7 is a "tough" week, but offers up a lot of nice selections - with 60% of the games being a 5.5 point or more spread. But inevitably, two or three of those will miss. 75% of the people in my pool have missed their "nice selection" so far. (Week 8 looks WAY tougher).
So far, I'm looking at Baltimore and Seattle like everyone else. But like all of us, it seems to be those obvious ones that have burned us in the past.
Redskins, anyone?
So far, I'm looking at Baltimore and Seattle like everyone else. But like all of us, it seems to be those obvious ones that have burned us in the past.
Redskins, anyone?
bigbrownbag
Footballguy
I can't talk myself off of buffalo. I see the buff D holding the Vikings offense in check and Orton just needing to manage the game with Jackson and spiller. Here's to buffalo winning 24-10 and me moving onto week 8.
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