All of sudden, it feels like Chicago has become a FF nirvana. Two elite WR1’s, a multi-dimensional and clear #1 RB. A TE that comes in at the bottom of the TE1 radar. And Jay Cutler. What’s interesting to me is that they are almost the anti-Eagles. ON that spotlight I noticed that while Foles was coming in really high in terms of his draft ranking, nobody believed in receivers. So something was off there. In Chicago, people are going nuts for their skill position players, yet Cutler is going QB14. Is that justified? Well, I think it’s more justified than Foles going QB6.
But Marshall/Jeffrey are perhaps the most dynamic WR pairing in the game and Forte is one of the best pass catchers out of the backfield. Cutler will not want for weapons to throw to. And with a year to build on with Marc Trestman, the thought process is that the Bears should be even more hyper powered than they became last year on offense. What we have to determine for 2014 is as follows: 1) was that a function of the Bears offense being that good or 2) a function of a defense that over its final 11 games, gave up an average of 30.7 PPG and have the Bears made enough defensive improvements to not require such prolific offensive production. What’s nice about CHI is that there are 5 players to talk about here. Concerning the passing game, the foursome of Marshall/Jeffrey/Forte/Black Unicorn combined for 328 of the Bears 383 receptions and 305 of the Bears 368 non-QB rushes. I don’t see much room for sleeper emergence if these guys stay on the field.
Jay Cutler – As FF Draft Season rolls on, I suspect Cutler is going to become a late QB1 sleeper. I’m not sure if I buy into his hype as much as I think others will wind up doing. Something you see a lot of people doing right now is aggregating the Bears QB numbers from 2013 and applying that to Cutler’s chances to reach those same numbers. Here is what they were:
373 Completions
579 Attempts
4450 Passing Yards
64.4% Completion Rate
7.7 YPA
32 TD’s
13 INT’s
In all, very impressive. But I think it does a disservice to just how much Josh McCown contributed to them. If we pro-rate Cutler’s numbers over a 16 game schedule, you get these (removing his abbreviated game where he got hurt).
354 Completions
555 Attempts
4149 Passing Yards
63.8% Completion Rate
7.5 YPA
30 TD’s
18 INT’s
Listen, Cutler would have still had one of his better seasons, but in just using a basic scoring system for QB’s; 1 point/25 yards passing, 4 points/passing TD and -2 points/interception – Cutler would have scroed 30 fewer points than what CHI QB’s wound up scoring. 30 may not sound like a lot, but 2 points/game? It’s not insignigficant. Like I said, Cutler had one of his better seasons, but the best QB in CHI last year performance wise was McCown. It’s not slight on Cutler, it’s just that McCown was awesome. Plus, one thing that McCown did that Cutler doesn’t do, even under the tutelage of Trestman is not turn the ball over. Among 34 QB’s with at least 250 pass attemtps last year, the QB’s that threw INT at a more frequent rate than Cutler were; Eli, Geno Smith, Terrelle Pryor, Matt Schaub, Joe Flacco, Matt Cassell, and Andy Dalton. So despite his weapons, I don’t see Cutler being allowed to attempt 600 passes. And even with two elite WR’s, he’s never been a great YPA guy. And his TD:INT ratio delta will be hampered too. While I think Cutler should have one of his better seasons, I can see a frenzy over his draft status oncoming as people further investigate the surface level passing stats of the Bears under Trestman in 213. My expectations will be tempered probably more than quite a few.
Also, while I’ll project Cutler (and the rest of the Bears) for all 16 games, we are talking about a QB that’s averaged 3 missed games/season since 2010. The Bears found lightning in a bottle with Josh McCown, who performed even better than Cutler when Cutler went down. Right now, the depth chart behind Cutler is muddled to the point of nausea. So if Cutler goes down, and history shows this is possible…it could throw a severe wrench into the works here. It’s a huge point of exposure to every Bear player.
Matt Forte – Probably one of the more underappreciated players in the NFL still…even in FFC ADP, he’s going as RB4 (Charles, McCoy, Peterson) are above him despite the fact that Forte went for 1933/12 last season. At RB4, there does seem to be a clear delineation between him and the Top 3 as the three RB’s above seem to be in the #1 overall pick discussion. Forte is not. Forte led all RB’s in snaps (940) last season. And while the Bears did draft Ka’Deem Carey to replace Michael Bush as Forte’s primary back-up (and perhaps also get contributions from 2nd year player Michael Ford), I think the Bears will be content to ride their 28 year old bellcow into the ground knowing that he probably has but 1-2 productive seasons left. One of the better pass catchers out of the back field, Forte is probably as diverse and multi-talented RB as there is in the NFL. I think the only question you have in drafting Forte is whether or not you want to go Megatron instead. As someone who feels like he’d be comfortable drafting Megatron #1, I think drafting Forte means you feel comfortable with the WR talent later in the draft. If you feel like you can find RB’s later in the draft, perhaps you’ll bypass Forte. At this point in their respective careers, who is more likely for a sudden, unforeseen drop-off? I’d have to say Forte. He’s four months older than Marshawn Lynch, has only 63 fewer career touches than him. Again, this is not to say I believe Forte falls off…it’s just that if advancing age and workload is something that concerns you with RB, Forte is a guy who is starting to be someone to monitor.
Brandon Marshall/Alshon Jeffrey – The bond between Cutler and Marshall is certainly well known in FF and NFL circles. Short of injury to either Cutler or Marshall, I see Marshall’s production being similar to seasons past. It’s worth noting that 2 of Marshall’s least productive games in 2013 came with Cutler sidelined, but overall, from a yardage/target perspective, Marshall produced the same rate of production with Cutler as he did McCown. Where Marshall was a little more productive with Cutler was in the TD department where his rate of TD production with Cutler prorated over 16 games would have been 16 TD’s (not 12). This isn’t surprising either given the level of knowledge each has of one another in close quarters. At the end of the day though, Marshall is a safe pick in Round 2 as you search for your WR1. While he may be competing for targets with another dynamic WR weapon, there is enough production in the CHI passing game to go around. If there was one dynamic to point out between Marshall/Jeffrey in 2013, it was Marshall’s consistency vs. Jeffrey’s huge games (he had 2 200 yard games). With that said, I think Jeffrey benefitted much more from Marshall’s presence last year than vice versa. However, I think that evens out with teams now having to devise plans to contain both. Of the two, at least last year, Jeffrey is the greater deep ball threat and because teams were concerned with Marshall, it offered Jeffrey single coverage opportunities down field which he used his size to win. With defenses now in a pick your poison mode, it could mean more room for Marshall…room he probably hasn’t had for a long time. At the end of the day, there are very few, if any WR combos, that can touch CHI’s production wise.
Black Unicorn – Before Alshon Jeffrey emerged as the force that he did, it looked like during the seasons first 2 games that the emerging force on the Bears offense was going to be Bennett. With a 10/125/3 line, Bennett seemed to emerge as the compliment the Bears had been looking for for Marshall. We know how that turned out and while Bennett fell of the torrid pace he’d set, he still was decent. I think the defining factor for this offense being truly a one-of-a-kind juggernaut and being simply very good is how they are able to incorporate Bennett into the flow. Fact is, Bennett only scored two TD’s the rest of the season (Jeffrey/Marshall combined for 17). And for as prolific as this combo was, along with Bennett’s ability/talent…19 total TD’s for this troika for 14 games seems low. Not to compare Bennett with Gonzalez, but in terms of a 3 pronged aerial attack, the Falcons in 2012 with Roddy/Julio/Gonzo combined for 25. Bennett’s been a bit of a different sort during his career…in an amusing way mind you. Most people who give themselves nicknames generally give themselves nicknames that suck. Not Bennett. Is he happy being a Top 10-12 TE in the NFL? Or can he become an even better player than he’s shown his last two seasons? I think he has a golden opportunity in front of him. At TE13 on FFC, he’s way low IMO. There’s a 4 round difference between him and Jordan Reed. I don’t know why.
Predictions:
Cutler – 369 Completions, 578 Attempts 4300 Passing Yards 31 TD;s 17 INT’s. 31 rushes 99 Rushing Yards 1 TD.
Forte – 305 Rushes 1345 Rushing Yards, 7 TD’s; 64 Receptions 482 Receiving Yards 2 TD’s.
Carey – 48 Rushes 158 Rushing Yards, 27 Receptions 182 Receiving Yards
Ford – 67 Rushes 236 Rushing Yards 4 TD’s.
Marshall – 95 Receptions 1203 Receiving Yards 13 TD’s.
Jeffrey – 97 Receptions 1322 Receiving Yards 8 TD’s. 7 Rushes 37 Rushing Yards
Bennett – 54 Receptions 672 Receiving Yards 8 TD’s
