2015 Top 10 lists (1 Viewer)

[BigSteelThrill]

The low Roethlisberger rankings are missing the boat.

He is #4 in 2014.

He was #6 in 2013.

He would have been #10 in 2012 but missed some games, under a first year OC and a new system.

These are all of his years under Todd Haley.

 

[BobbyLayne]

The low Roethlisberger rankings are missing the boat.

He is #4 in 2014.

He was #6 in 2013.

He would have been #10 in 2012 but missed some games, under a first year OC and a new system.

These are all of his years under Todd Haley.

5th in our league 2014, 9th 2013. We have a vanilla system: 25 yds/pt, TD 4, INT -1.

 

[voiceofunreason]

WR

1-Calvin Johnson - I cannot believe how far down people have him ranked. He's guaranteed 1600-2000 yards and 10-15 tds when he's healthy, and he hasn't had any horrible injuries in his career. This is nuts.

2-Julio

3-AJ Green

gap

4-Dez

5-DT - Peyton's decline is very close imo, and it makes me nervous. I probably wouldn't draft him really high.

6-Jordy

7-Brown

gap-gets really tough now, as a lot of guys are really close

8-ODB

9-Gordon - maybe he should be up in the top tier but the guys above him are so solid I don't think I could take him that early

10-Evans - tough choice but he's had a great season and should be better next year.

RB

1-Bell - not close

2-AP - I believe he'll be reinstated for the start of next year. You can guarantee that he's on a mission.

3-Murray - I think he's back in Dallas

4-Charles

5-McCoy - I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he must have been banged up this year

6-Lacy - this year is probably his floor, although I'm not sure the ceiling is much higher

gap-gets pretty ugly after this and I'd have a hard time taking a lot of these guys early

7-Mason - upside, youth and has looked very good to my eyes. Most of the guys below are getting old and ready to break down.

8-Forte - getting really old and there's a new coach coming and you have to believe that they are drafting a rb to start grooming. I'm probably avoiding him.

9-Hill - I liked Gio a lot as a rookie but the writing is on the wall

10-Crowell - a lot depends on what happens between now and draft time but if he finishes the season well and looks like the starter next year I'd buy. You know he's putting up big numbers behind that line if he gets the touches.

QB

1-Luck - why wouldn't you like him. Throws a ton, runs a bit, has young talent that is only getting better, plays in a dome.

2-Rodgers - only because he throws a lot less than Luck

big gap-for as deep as qb is supposed to be, a lot of the guys below are getting old and the running qbs aren't looking so hot

3-Peyton - though I wouldn't draft him this high personally due to risk of decline and injury (the guy is ancient)

4-Brees - I'll give him a mulligan and assume he hasn't just started declining

5-Newton - he'll be back healthy and hopefully they add some line help and a wr

6-Stafford - I know nobody else likes him this much but he'll have Calvin healthy next year, Tate is there, Ebron should step up and it'll be a lot better than this year. Nobody below inspires me either.

7-Ryan - I don't love him, but I'll assume the new coaching staff is better and he'll improve slightly

8-Roethlisberger

9-Wilson - I don't like as much as most and wouldn't draft him. He's going to get beat up running eventually at his size. Also Lynch leaving could have a much more negative than positive affect. He's not a very good pocket passer as of yet.

10-Brady - should maybe be higher

TE

1-Gronk by a mile

2-Graham - but I wouldn't take him early in drafts. More than Gronk even, he's banged up every year and has long stretches of poor games. I'm not drafting a guy like that in the first 20 picks

3-Thomas - assuming he and Manning stay. If not, probably somebody I avoid.

big gap

4-Kelce - if only Alex Smith wasn't the qb

5-Bennett

6-Olsen

another gap-not really very pretty after this. Again a lot of guys are getting old and lot of the others have a lot to prove.

7-Eifert - looked legit last year to me and the Bengals are crying for a 2nd target. Plus he has pretty big upside compared to others

8-Cameron - tough player to rank. Will he rebound or was it a one year wonder?

9-Ertz - partially due to upside and partially due to not liking the players below him

10-Fleener - has quietly had a very solid year and has upside with Luck

 

[SproutDaddy]

Hilton is off the majority of these lists. I'd take him over Gordon due to situation and the propensity to get in trouble. The fact Evans an Jeffrey are on lists before him is laughable.

And Crowell being mentioned is a head scratcher. At this point he's locked in a timeshare no matter what the fanboys think.

 

[Bayhawks]

WR

1-Calvin Johnson - I cannot believe how far down people have him ranked. He's guaranteed 1600-2000 yards and 10-15 tds when he's healthy, and he hasn't had any horrible injuries in his career. This is nuts.

2-Julio

3-AJ Green

gap

4-Dez

5-DT - Peyton's decline is very close imo, and it makes me nervous. I probably wouldn't draft him really high.

6-Jordy

7-Brown

gap-gets really tough now, as a lot of guys are really close

8-ODB

9-Gordon - maybe he should be up in the top tier but the guys above him are so solid I don't think I could take him that early

10-Evans - tough choice but he's had a great season and should be better next year.

RB

1-Bell - not close

2-AP - I believe he'll be reinstated for the start of next year. You can guarantee that he's on a mission.

3-Murray - I think he's back in Dallas

4-Charles

5-McCoy - I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he must have been banged up this year

6-Lacy - this year is probably his floor, although I'm not sure the ceiling is much higher

gap-gets pretty ugly after this and I'd have a hard time taking a lot of these guys early

7-Mason - upside, youth and has looked very good to my eyes. Most of the guys below are getting old and ready to break down.

8-Forte - getting really old and there's a new coach coming and you have to believe that they are drafting a rb to start grooming. I'm probably avoiding him.

9-Hill - I liked Gio a lot as a rookie but the writing is on the wall

10-Crowell - a lot depends on what happens between now and draft time but if he finishes the season well and looks like the starter next year I'd buy. You know he's putting up big numbers behind that line if he gets the touches.

QB

1-Luck - why wouldn't you like him. Throws a ton, runs a bit, has young talent that is only getting better, plays in a dome.

2-Rodgers - only because he throws a lot less than Luck

big gap-for as deep as qb is supposed to be, a lot of the guys below are getting old and the running qbs aren't looking so hot

3-Peyton - though I wouldn't draft him this high personally due to risk of decline and injury (the guy is ancient)

4-Brees - I'll give him a mulligan and assume he hasn't just started declining

5-Newton - he'll be back healthy and hopefully they add some line help and a wr

6-Stafford - I know nobody else likes him this much but he'll have Calvin healthy next year, Tate is there, Ebron should step up and it'll be a lot better than this year. Nobody below inspires me either.

7-Ryan - I don't love him, but I'll assume the new coaching staff is better and he'll improve slightly

8-Roethlisberger

9-Wilson - I don't like as much as most and wouldn't draft him. He's going to get beat up running eventually at his size. Also Lynch leaving could have a much more negative than positive affect. He's not a very good pocket passer as of yet.

10-Brady - should maybe be higher

TE

1-Gronk by a mile

2-Graham - but I wouldn't take him early in drafts. More than Gronk even, he's banged up every year and has long stretches of poor games. I'm not drafting a guy like that in the first 20 picks

3-Thomas - assuming he and Manning stay. If not, probably somebody I avoid.

big gap

4-Kelce - if only Alex Smith wasn't the qb

5-Bennett

6-Olsen

another gap-not really very pretty after this. Again a lot of guys are getting old and lot of the others have a lot to prove.

7-Eifert - looked legit last year to me and the Bengals are crying for a 2nd target. Plus he has pretty big upside compared to others

8-Cameron - tough player to rank. Will he rebound or was it a one year wonder?

9-Ertz - partially due to upside and partially due to not liking the players below him

10-Fleener - has quietly had a very solid year and has upside with Luck

WR-Calvin is "guaranteed" something he has done ONE TIME in his 8 year NFL career (1600+ yards, 10+ TDs)? And that one time was 3 years ago, not even recently? This is a what have you done for me lately league, and lately Calvin has been dinged up a little bit, is getting close to 30 years old, and other WRs have been producing across the league. He definitely should be in the top-10, but it is very easy to make a case for other WRs ahead of him.

QB-You have Wilson at #9 and suggest that he is not a very good pocket passer, yet. The stats don't back that up. He is a better passer inside the pocket than outside, throwing for over 66% completion rate, 8.0 YPA, a TD rate of 6.2, and INT rate of 1.6, and a 104.7 QB rating inside the pocket, compared to 56% completion rate, 8.7 YPA,TD rate of 5.9, INT rate of 2.6, and a QB rating of 93.9 outside the pocket. While he may deserve to be ranked at #9, it's not because of any weaknesses as a pocket QB.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Maybe that will be exactly what happens, but making projections this early, it's very reasonable to not include him in the top-10 for next year.

This is a fun thread and there's no harm whatsoever in starting it, but this statement is what makes it pretty useless* at this time. There's free agency, the NFL draft, injuries and other factors on the horizon which makes this even more of a guessing game than usual.

This is an obvious statement but just throwing it out there for those expressing shock at omissions on the list.

This bears repeating. And I would encourage anyone who thinks any of these lists are ludicrous to click on over to the Mock Drafts forum in a month or so and sign yourself up for one of the WSLs (best-ball draft-only survivor leagues that draft immediately after the Super Bowl).

Here's some examples of guys who were drafted in the top 15 at their positions in last February's WSLs:

- QBs: RG3, Kaep

- RBs: Doug Martin, Gio Bernard, Zac Stacy, C.J. Spiller

- WRs: Pierre Garcon, Larry Fitzgerald, Keenan Allen

- TEs: Vernon Davis, Jordan Cameron, Dennis Pitta

In each WSL league Kaep went ahead of Big Ben, AlMo ahead of Bell, Tavon Austin ahead of Maclin. Knowshon Moreno and Eric Decker were top-50 picks, while I walked away from my WR starters of Nelson, Maclin, and Hopkins thinking I'd dug myself a huge hole at the position.

Basically, this far in advance - ahead of free agency, the draft, and TC - once you get past the true multi-year studs, everyone's more or less throwing darts.

 

[Bayhawks]

Maybe that will be exactly what happens, but making projections this early, it's very reasonable to not include him in the top-10 for next year.

This is a fun thread and there's no harm whatsoever in starting it, but this statement is what makes it pretty useless* at this time. There's free agency, the NFL draft, injuries and other factors on the horizon which makes this even more of a guessing game than usual.

This is an obvious statement but just throwing it out there for those expressing shock at omissions on the list.

This bears repeating. And I would encourage anyone who thinks any of these lists are ludicrous to click on over to the Mock Drafts forum in a month or so and sign yourself up for one of the WSLs (best-ball draft-only survivor leagues that draft immediately after the Super Bowl).

Here's some examples of guys who were drafted in the top 15 at their positions in last February's WSLs:

- QBs: RG3, Kaep

- RBs: Doug Martin, Gio Bernard, Zac Stacy, C.J. Spiller

- WRs: Pierre Garcon, Larry Fitzgerald, Keenan Allen

- TEs: Vernon Davis, Jordan Cameron, Dennis Pitta

In each WSL league Kaep went ahead of Big Ben, AlMo ahead of Bell, Tavon Austin ahead of Maclin. Knowshon Moreno and Eric Decker were top-50 picks, while I walked away from my WR starters of Nelson, Maclin, and Hopkins thinking I'd dug myself a huge hole at the position.

Basically, this far in advance - ahead of free agency, the draft, and TC - once you get past the true multi-year studs, everyone's more or less throwing darts.

True, and that's why I started the thread as a top-10 list. If you tried to go farther, it would be even harder to predict. Obviously, Indy might add to their D and running game, Wayne might retire, but we can make a reasonable assumption about Luck's projections. This wouldn't be the case, say for the QB situation in Cleveland, or Washington.

The reason for this thread is I got knocked out of my main league & am not as actively researching match-ups, injury reports, weather, etc & it gives me something to think about. I have found that right after the season ends, my league has a couple of trades, then we go dormant until after the draft, a few trades get made, then we wait until pre-season starts. So having an idea (even a very rough idea) of where players are valued can help when this "post-FF season" trade window is open.

 

[Rick James]

putting 6 WRs ahead of Antonio Brown is nuts. Dude is #1 overall RB/WR/TE in my PPR league. Ahead of LeVeon Bell and Matt Forte. Closest WR is Demaryius Thomas, and there is a 35 point differential between #1 and #2.

 

[Pipes]

These top 10 WR lists that don't have Beckham Jr on them are ludicrous.

Look, I like Spider-Man as much as anyone, but he won't even be the top fantasy scorer next year from his own draft class IMO.

FWIW, I'm going on the record as stating that in at least one 2015 redraft I plan to draft literally nothing but 2nd-year guys at WR ... just because I can.

He played his first NFL game week 5. Didn't start, just started getting involved in the offense. Nevertheless, from week 5 on, he is the #5 WR in all of fantasy. Even better since his week 8 bye as well.

He's as dynamic as they come. Don't see how he wouldn't be in virtually every top 10 list. That doesn't mean you can't like Mike Evans too, because he's been fantastic too.

Victor Cruz will be back next year - he should take some targets away. At WR I don't think you can say leaving any WR out of the top 10 is "ludicrous" (especially ones that have limited track records). It's such a deep position.

I'm not so sure. MCL's are much tougher to come back from than ACL's . I wouldn't be surprised if Cruz started the season on the pup. Even if he doesn't I don't think he'll be anywhere the receiver (next year anyway) that he was pre injury.

I'm assuming you're just mixing up MCL with a torn/ruptured patellar tendon, which is the injury Cruz actually had?

Yep my bad

 

[voiceofunreason]

WR-Calvin is "guaranteed" something he has done ONE TIME in his 8 year NFL career (1600+ yards, 10+ TDs)? And that one time was 3 years ago, not even recently? This is a what have you done for me lately league, and lately Calvin has been dinged up a little bit, is getting close to 30 years old, and other WRs have been producing across the league. He definitely should be in the top-10, but it is very easy to make a case for other WRs ahead of him.

QB-You have Wilson at #9 and suggest that he is not a very good pocket passer, yet. The stats don't back that up. He is a better passer inside the pocket than outside, throwing for over 66% completion rate, 8.0 YPA, a TD rate of 6.2, and INT rate of 1.6, and a 104.7 QB rating inside the pocket, compared to 56% completion rate, 8.7 YPA,TD rate of 5.9, INT rate of 2.6, and a QB rating of 93.9 outside the pocket. While he may deserve to be ranked at #9, it's not because of any weaknesses as a pocket QB.

Well tds are hard to predict but Calvin has averaged over 1700 yards and 11 tds the previous 3 years. This year he's almost at 900 yards in only 10 games while playing hurt. A wr turning 30 isn't a big deal. People are frankly being idiots having him as a low wr1 and it's nothing but short term memory due to his ankle injury this year, nothing else.

Wilson isn't a good pocket qb. It's a lot easier to put up good efficiency while you are passing for 150 yards a game from the pocket (if that) and the running game and defense are doing all the hard work. He does put up good running numbers so I can understand someone else liking him but I'd go with someone else.

 

[IheartGuinness]

Trying to think about keepers, so I'm bumping this for more responses. Mostly agree with much of the lists here. I think there's an absolute treasure trove of value at wide receiver, so it's tough to select just ten, or even fifteen. Who are the RBs that people see lurking just outside the top ten? Miller, Hill, etc.?

 

[Denver724]

WR

1-Calvin Johnson - I cannot believe how far down people have him ranked. He's guaranteed 1600-2000 yards and 10-15 tds when he's healthy, and he hasn't had any horrible injuries in his career. This is nuts.

2-Julio

3-AJ Green

gap

4-Dez

5-DT - Peyton's decline is very close imo, and it makes me nervous. I probably wouldn't draft him really high.

6-Jordy

7-Brown

gap-gets really tough now, as a lot of guys are really close

8-ODB

9-Gordon - maybe he should be up in the top tier but the guys above him are so solid I don't think I could take him that early

10-Evans - tough choice but he's had a great season and should be better next year.

RB

1-Bell - not close

2-AP - I believe he'll be reinstated for the start of next year. You can guarantee that he's on a mission.

3-Murray - I think he's back in Dallas

4-Charles

5-McCoy - I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he must have been banged up this year

6-Lacy - this year is probably his floor, although I'm not sure the ceiling is much higher

gap-gets pretty ugly after this and I'd have a hard time taking a lot of these guys early

7-Mason - upside, youth and has looked very good to my eyes. Most of the guys below are getting old and ready to break down.

8-Forte - getting really old and there's a new coach coming and you have to believe that they are drafting a rb to start grooming. I'm probably avoiding him.

9-Hill - I liked Gio a lot as a rookie but the writing is on the wall

10-Crowell - a lot depends on what happens between now and draft time but if he finishes the season well and looks like the starter next year I'd buy. You know he's putting up big numbers behind that line if he gets the touches.

QB

1-Luck - why wouldn't you like him. Throws a ton, runs a bit, has young talent that is only getting better, plays in a dome.

2-Rodgers - only because he throws a lot less than Luck

big gap-for as deep as qb is supposed to be, a lot of the guys below are getting old and the running qbs aren't looking so hot

3-Peyton - though I wouldn't draft him this high personally due to risk of decline and injury (the guy is ancient)

4-Brees - I'll give him a mulligan and assume he hasn't just started declining

5-Newton - he'll be back healthy and hopefully they add some line help and a wr

6-Stafford - I know nobody else likes him this much but he'll have Calvin healthy next year, Tate is there, Ebron should step up and it'll be a lot better than this year. Nobody below inspires me either.

7-Ryan - I don't love him, but I'll assume the new coaching staff is better and he'll improve slightly

8-Roethlisberger

9-Wilson - I don't like as much as most and wouldn't draft him. He's going to get beat up running eventually at his size. Also Lynch leaving could have a much more negative than positive affect. He's not a very good pocket passer as of yet.

10-Brady - should maybe be higher

TE

1-Gronk by a mile

2-Graham - but I wouldn't take him early in drafts. More than Gronk even, he's banged up every year and has long stretches of poor games. I'm not drafting a guy like that in the first 20 picks

3-Thomas - assuming he and Manning stay. If not, probably somebody I avoid.

big gap

4-Kelce - if only Alex Smith wasn't the qb

5-Bennett

6-Olsen

another gap-not really very pretty after this. Again a lot of guys are getting old and lot of the others have a lot to prove.

7-Eifert - looked legit last year to me and the Bengals are crying for a 2nd target. Plus he has pretty big upside compared to others

8-Cameron - tough player to rank. Will he rebound or was it a one year wonder?

9-Ertz - partially due to upside and partially due to not liking the players below him

10-Fleener - has quietly had a very solid year and has upside with Luck

Great list. I think Jeremy Hill will move into the top 6 RB's shortly. Really, really imressive. But where does that leave Gio? Hard to say. Many dysnasty "experts" had him in their top 5 (some top 3) at the beginning of the year.

 

[NFL-ons]

Don't have my own list, just a couple observations.

I really like CJ Anderson's story but I am getting a very strong Kevin Smith vibe from him.

With the recent news of Peyton's interest in being involved in a Titans purchase. I really think he might retire. For someone who loves football as much as him, how many opportunities will come along where he will be able to be actively involved at that level for the rest of his life! Plus I strongly believe he would gel with the Titans and the Nashville community more than any other team.

Looking at the 30 possible entries (qb, rb, wr combined) it is not unreasonable to have more than 10% of them as rookies. I feel the rookie class o f '15 will have a similar impact on projections.

 

[steelers1080]

As a Murray owner I'm worried about his production/landing spot next year and hoping he stays with Dallas.

I think that Crowell, Hill, and Ellington could be in the top 10 next year. If Ellington hadn't started the year with a foot injury that bothered him throughout the entire season he would probably be higher than the 13th he's currently ranked. Hill and Crowell are rookies who should have the starting job next year and with a full offseason could be much better. Crowell also get's Alex Mack back.

I would remove Lynch and CJ Anderson from the top 10. Lynch will probably either retire, be out of seattle, or get injured. CJ will probably split with several RBs next year in a RBBC.

At WR a sleeper pick could be Cordarelle Patterson. Everyone expected him to have a huge year this year but he fell flat. If he gets traded then he could blow up next year, he's freakishly athletic. He was wide open on a number of deep routes early this season, and Teddy just couldn't get him the ball. He could (5% chance) be a beast next year on another team. Michael Floyd is another sleeper. If Fitz leaves and they get a QB that can pass deep then he has a shot to rebound into the top 10.

At TE, Eric Ebron and Ladarius Green, and possibly Tyler Eifert. They're all young players but are in positions to possibly explode next year.

 

[IheartGuinness]

As a Murray owner I'm worried about his production/landing spot next year and hoping he stays with Dallas.

I think that Crowell, Hill, and Ellington could be in the top 10 next year. If Ellington hadn't started the year with a foot injury that bothered him throughout the entire season he would probably be higher than the 13th he's currently ranked. Hill and Crowell are rookies who should have the starting job next year and with a full offseason could be much better. Crowell also get's Alex Mack back.

I would remove Lynch and CJ Anderson from the top 10. Lynch will probably either retire, be out of seattle, or get injured. CJ will probably split with several RBs next year in a RBBC.

At WR a sleeper pick could be Cordarelle Patterson. Everyone expected him to have a huge year this year but he fell flat. If he gets traded then he could blow up next year, he's freakishly athletic. He was wide open on a number of deep routes early this season, and Teddy just couldn't get him the ball. He could (5% chance) be a beast next year on another team. Michael Floyd is another sleeper. If Fitz leaves and they get a QB that can pass deep then he has a shot to rebound into the top 10.

At TE, Eric Ebron and Ladarius Green, and possibly Tyler Eifert. They're all young players but are in positions to possibly explode next year.

Not sure what to make of Ellington next year. He can be very valuable, particularly in PPR, but he strikes me as one of those guys that's always going to be a little dinged up. I can see his ADP fluctuating quite a bit.

 

[Buffaloes]

where is Gronk? I'd think about taking him #1 overall esp in PPR or leagues that give that crazy 1.5 PPR to TE

 

[Buffaloes]

QB-You have Wilson at #9 and suggest that he is not a very good pocket passer, yet. The stats don't back that up. He is a better passer inside the pocket than outside, throwing for over 66% completion rate, 8.0 YPA, a TD rate of 6.2, and INT rate of 1.6, and a 104.7 QB rating inside the pocket, compared to 56% completion rate, 8.7 YPA,TD rate of 5.9, INT rate of 2.6, and a QB rating of 93.9 outside the pocket. While he may deserve to be ranked at #9, it's not because of any weaknesses as a pocket QB.

do you have a link for this? I am not doubting any of this btw, just curious where these stats can be had?

 

[cvnpoka]

Great thread. People can quibble about the rankings but these preliminary lists express how deep WR is going into 2015 and how valuable RB1s will be, especially in auction formats. All the question marks in the RB list suggest playing matchups / using the waiver wire for the RB2 position will be a wise strategy again in 2015.

I think there are 20-25 WRs who could conceivable finish in the top 10. It's going to be ridiculously deep.

If you're drafting early, you almost HAVE to take a RB. The position gets really dicey after the first 8 or 9 guys.

These things change so much from year to year, that usually the guys chasing last year's trend are a step behind. With all the FAs and rookies at the position, running back will look completely different next year.

Hey I didn't know taking a stud RB early is such a current fad.

If you had an early 1st round pick, what direction would you go?

I know you and I are on the same wavelength with respect to the significant value of a stud RB, but just to advance the discussion, I would select J Charles or LV Bell without hesitation. If neither are available, I start nit-picking between McCoy, D Murray, M Forte, and AP (team-dependent).

re cloppbeast's remark: I agree the RB landscape changes annually due to factors previously listed (player movement) and factors not mentioned (for example, offensive coordinator changes, offensive line coach changes). However, elite RBs are quite limited (look at all the committees out there) so they are significantly more valuable than players at other positions (due to scarcity) and they are worthy of an early 1st-round pick. I have a hard time coming up with an argument for taking any other position with an early 1st.

the problem is that early rbs are gonna come with a lot of risk whereas the wrs look pretty safe. i mean, mccoy is getting vultured and had a bunch of down games. charles is a year older, is at risk of losing workload to knile. murray is gonna have like 400 touches this year. foster has all kinds of injury risk. lacy looked like a complete bust early in the year. lynch is nearly 30, has been talking retirement and obv takes a beating. forte will be 30. peterson? cmon. bell ofc does look like a great pick. will anderson split with ball and hillman?

so ya, i think id prefer to gamble on some of the elite wr like brown, jordy, julio, green, dez, thomas, beckham rather than those rbs outside of bell.

 

[fightingillini]

Great thread. People can quibble about the rankings but these preliminary lists express how deep WR is going into 2015 and how valuable RB1s will be, especially in auction formats. All the question marks in the RB list suggest playing matchups / using the waiver wire for the RB2 position will be a wise strategy again in 2015.

I think there are 20-25 WRs who could conceivable finish in the top 10. It's going to be ridiculously deep.

If you're drafting early, you almost HAVE to take a RB. The position gets really dicey after the first 8 or 9 guys.

These things change so much from year to year, that usually the guys chasing last year's trend are a step behind. With all the FAs and rookies at the position, running back will look completely different next year.

Hey I didn't know taking a stud RB early is such a current fad.

If you had an early 1st round pick, what direction would you go?

I know you and I are on the same wavelength with respect to the significant value of a stud RB, but just to advance the discussion, I would select J Charles or LV Bell without hesitation. If neither are available, I start nit-picking between McCoy, D Murray, M Forte, and AP (team-dependent).

re cloppbeast's remark: I agree the RB landscape changes annually due to factors previously listed (player movement) and factors not mentioned (for example, offensive coordinator changes, offensive line coach changes). However, elite RBs are quite limited (look at all the committees out there) so they are significantly more valuable than players at other positions (due to scarcity) and they are worthy of an early 1st-round pick. I have a hard time coming up with an argument for taking any other position with an early 1st.

the problem is that early rbs are gonna come with a lot of risk whereas the wrs look pretty safe. i mean, mccoy is getting vultured and had a bunch of down games. charles is a year older, is at risk of losing workload to knile. murray is gonna have like 400 touches this year. foster has all kinds of injury risk. lacy looked like a complete bust early in the year. lynch is nearly 30, has been talking retirement and obv takes a beating. forte will be 30. peterson? cmon. bell ofc does look like a great pick. will anderson split with ball and hillman?

so ya, i think id prefer to gamble on some of the elite wr like brown, jordy, julio, green, dez, thomas, beckham rather than those rbs outside of bell.

While the WR is more safe than the RB, the problem is that....there isn't really a consensus who is the top WR. Antonio Brown? Calvin? Demariyus? Julio? Nelson? Dez? Any of these guys could be the top WR, and you could add AJ Green and Beckham to that as well. So you're not getting value with your early pick.

If you're hell bent on taking a WR with a 1st round pick, you should trade down to the middle or late 1st round.

 

[fightingillini]

The low Roethlisberger rankings are missing the boat.

He is #4 in 2014.

He was #6 in 2013.

He would have been #10 in 2012 but missed some games, under a first year OC and a new system.

These are all of his years under Todd Haley.

Big Ben's numbers are skewed this year by two 6 TD games, but even taking these out, he's still a top 10 option. He's got one of the best WRs in the game in Brown, perhaps the best RB right now in Bell, and M Bryant who can stretch the field. Big Ben should be a lock for a top 10 finish in 2015.

 

[IheartGuinness]

RB

1. Bell

2. Charles

3. Murray (although I'd be hard pressed to take him here. I think he's going to drop-off next year)

4. McCoy (still think he has enough left for a rebound season)

5. Forte (he's versatile enough to excel despite changes to coaching personnel)

6. Foster (always a roll of the dice with injury concerns, but when healthy he's up there with the best)

7. Lynch (if he stays)

8. Lacy

9. Anderson? Provided he's the true starter in that mix

10. Hill?

WR

1. Calvin (until he has an injury-free season of substandard--for him, that is--play, I'll keep him at No. 1)

2. Antonio Brown. A nightmare to face in PPR.

3. AJ Green

4. Dez

5. Hilton

6. Odell (I'd like to rank him even higher, but Bad Eli is bound to make an appearance from time to time)

7. Julio (seems injuries are always a concern)

8. Gordon

9. DT (I'm not ready to write off Peyton just yet...and I think his health will be fine for most of the season)

10. Jefferey

QB

1. Luck (the next sure thing)

2. Rodgers

3. Brees

4. Stafford (a healthy Calvin, an improved Ebron, and an emerging receiver in G.Tate will bring his numbers up from this season)

5. Peyton

6. Brady

7. Eli (originally had Cutler here, but Marshall seems to have regressed and Eli will have plenty of talent around him next year)

8. Roethlisberger

9. Matt Ryan

10. Tannehill. Not as crazy as you'd think--his rapport with Landry will continue to grow, in addition to weapons in Wallace and Miller.

Obviously this is all just fun speculation. But one thing that stands out is how muddled the running back corps will be, and how rife with uncertainty. The depth at wide receiver is astounding, too. Whether it's the state of the NFL today or just a massive influx of talent (probably both), there are many, many options to be had at that position. My premature thoughts on the draft lean toward stocking up on RBs early and often because there aren't many stable choices to go around.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

The low Roethlisberger rankings are missing the boat.

He is #4 in 2014.

He was #6 in 2013.

He would have been #10 in 2012 but missed some games, under a first year OC and a new system.

These are all of his years under Todd Haley.

Here's the problem with ranking Ben as high as that. He's had 6 subpar weeks so far this year with two more to play yet. If you are counting on him week in and week out, he's going to hurt you often. He's also probably going to win you 2 or 3 weeks by himself if you start him. But in the leagues I play in, he wasn't even started for the weeks he went nuts because he was coming off some subpar performances.

As another example, look at his 2013 game logs. He threw 1 TD pass in 6 of his first 7 games. (2 in the other). Whose starting him at that point? He's a fringe starting QB. Then he goes off for 4TDs and 400 yards. So you start him the next week? Yep, 1 TD, 1 INT and 200 yards. Back to the bench? 367 yards and 4 TDs.

Reality is he threw 17 TDs in 12 games this year, and a dozen in the other two. 2013? He threw 17 TDs in 13 games, and 11 in the other 3 games.

Year end totals are nice to look at, but they don't tell the story of owning Big Ben.

 

[Jerry Curl]

Right now in redraft for 2015...

Rodgers

Luck

Manning

Brees

Brady

Ryan

Wilson

Big Ben

Romo

Rivers

Bell

Charles

Murray

Lacy

Forte

Lynch

McCoy

Hill

Mason

Foster

Dez

Thomas

Calvin

Green

Brown

Julio

Nelson

Cobb

Hilton

Beckham

Gronk

Graham

Thomas

Olsen

Bennett

Kelce

Allen

Ebron

Reed

Ertz

 

[kingmalaki]

Wow, no love for Hyde? I think he will blow up if Gore is gone.

 

[fightingillini]

The low Roethlisberger rankings are missing the boat.

He is #4 in 2014.

He was #6 in 2013.

He would have been #10 in 2012 but missed some games, under a first year OC and a new system.

These are all of his years under Todd Haley.

Here's the problem with ranking Ben as high as that. He's had 6 subpar weeks so far this year with two more to play yet. If you are counting on him week in and week out, he's going to hurt you often. He's also probably going to win you 2 or 3 weeks by himself if you start him. But in the leagues I play in, he wasn't even started for the weeks he went nuts because he was coming off some subpar performances.

As another example, look at his 2013 game logs. He threw 1 TD pass in 6 of his first 7 games. (2 in the other). Whose starting him at that point? He's a fringe starting QB. Then he goes off for 4TDs and 400 yards. So you start him the next week? Yep, 1 TD, 1 INT and 200 yards. Back to the bench? 367 yards and 4 TDs.

Reality is he threw 17 TDs in 12 games this year, and a dozen in the other two. 2013? He threw 17 TDs in 13 games, and 11 in the other 3 games.

Year end totals are nice to look at, but they don't tell the story of owning Big Ben.

You can say the same thing about a lot of QBs....like Matt Ryan. or Matthew Stafford. or Tony Romo. or Jay Cutler. Tom Brady killed owners early in the year. Even Russell Wilson, who has had a top 5 season, has had 4 games of 11 or less points in my 4 pt per TD pass league. That's the story when you wait to draft your QB. If they were practical locks to throw 2 or more TDs every game, you would have to burn an early pick on them.

BTW, 17 TDs in 12 games equates to a 23 TD season, and that's his worst games. And Big Ben is throwing for a ton of yards this year, and should continue to do that next year. He's averaging 315 yds a game this year.

Big Ben is a lock for top 10 production in 2015.

 

[mphtrilogy]

Andrew Luck QB | IND: Coin Flip between him and Rodgers based on who's home more in weeks 14-16

Aaron Rodgers QB | GB

Peyton Manning QB | DEN

Drew Brees QB | NO

Tom Brady QB | NE

Ben Roethlisberger QB | PIT

Matt Ryan QB | ATL

Matthew Stafford QB | DET

Russell Wilson QB | SEA

Tony Romo QB | DAL

Le'Veon Bell RB | PIT

DeMarco Murray RB | DAL

Jamaal Charles RB | KC

Matt Forte RB | CHI

Arian Foster RB | HOU might move him down as we get closer to draft day

Eddie Lacy RB | GB

Marshawn Lynch RB | SEA if hes back

LeSean McCoy RB | PHI

Adrian Peterson RB | MIN contingent on the right team

cj anderson if pmanning is back

Jordy Nelson WR | GB have him this year and hes been awesome

Antonio Brown WR | PIT 1a

Demaryius Thomas WR | DEN 1aa

Calvin Johnson WR | DET 1aaa

Julio Jones WR | ATL 1aaaa

Dez Bryant WR | DAL 1aaaaa

Odell Beckham WR | NYG

A.J. Green WR | CIN

Mike Evans WR | TB

Jeremy Maclin WR | PHI

Emmanuel Sanders WR | DEN

Randall Cobb WR | GB

 

[Rick James]

The low Roethlisberger rankings are missing the boat.

He is #4 in 2014.

He was #6 in 2013.

He would have been #10 in 2012 but missed some games, under a first year OC and a new system.

These are all of his years under Todd Haley.

Here's the problem with ranking Ben as high as that. He's had 6 subpar weeks so far this year with two more to play yet. If you are counting on him week in and week out, he's going to hurt you often. He's also probably going to win you 2 or 3 weeks by himself if you start him. But in the leagues I play in, he wasn't even started for the weeks he went nuts because he was coming off some subpar performances.

As another example, look at his 2013 game logs. He threw 1 TD pass in 6 of his first 7 games. (2 in the other). Whose starting him at that point? He's a fringe starting QB. Then he goes off for 4TDs and 400 yards. So you start him the next week? Yep, 1 TD, 1 INT and 200 yards. Back to the bench? 367 yards and 4 TDs.

Reality is he threw 17 TDs in 12 games this year, and a dozen in the other two. 2013? He threw 17 TDs in 13 games, and 11 in the other 3 games.

Year end totals are nice to look at, but they don't tell the story of owning Big Ben.

Yeah, but you're drafting Ben in the double-digit rounds so you're not relying on him to carry your team.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

The low Roethlisberger rankings are missing the boat.

He is #4 in 2014.

He was #6 in 2013.

He would have been #10 in 2012 but missed some games, under a first year OC and a new system.

These are all of his years under Todd Haley.

Here's the problem with ranking Ben as high as that. He's had 6 subpar weeks so far this year with two more to play yet. If you are counting on him week in and week out, he's going to hurt you often. He's also probably going to win you 2 or 3 weeks by himself if you start him. But in the leagues I play in, he wasn't even started for the weeks he went nuts because he was coming off some subpar performances.

As another example, look at his 2013 game logs. He threw 1 TD pass in 6 of his first 7 games. (2 in the other). Whose starting him at that point? He's a fringe starting QB. Then he goes off for 4TDs and 400 yards. So you start him the next week? Yep, 1 TD, 1 INT and 200 yards. Back to the bench? 367 yards and 4 TDs.

Reality is he threw 17 TDs in 12 games this year, and a dozen in the other two. 2013? He threw 17 TDs in 13 games, and 11 in the other 3 games.

Year end totals are nice to look at, but they don't tell the story of owning Big Ben.

You can say the same thing about a lot of QBs....like Matt Ryan. or Matthew Stafford. or Tony Romo. or Jay Cutler. Tom Brady killed owners early in the year. Even Russell Wilson, who has had a top 5 season, has had 4 games of 11 or less points in my 4 pt per TD pass league. That's the story when you wait to draft your QB. If they were practical locks to throw 2 or more TDs every game, you would have to burn an early pick on them.

BTW, 17 TDs in 12 games equates to a 23 TD season, and that's his worst games. And Big Ben is throwing for a ton of yards this year, and should continue to do that next year. He's averaging 315 yds a game this year.

Big Ben is a lock for top 10 production in 2015.

The low Roethlisberger rankings are missing the boat.

He is #4 in 2014.

He was #6 in 2013.

He would have been #10 in 2012 but missed some games, under a first year OC and a new system.

These are all of his years under Todd Haley.

Here's the problem with ranking Ben as high as that. He's had 6 subpar weeks so far this year with two more to play yet. If you are counting on him week in and week out, he's going to hurt you often. He's also probably going to win you 2 or 3 weeks by himself if you start him. But in the leagues I play in, he wasn't even started for the weeks he went nuts because he was coming off some subpar performances.

As another example, look at his 2013 game logs. He threw 1 TD pass in 6 of his first 7 games. (2 in the other). Whose starting him at that point? He's a fringe starting QB. Then he goes off for 4TDs and 400 yards. So you start him the next week? Yep, 1 TD, 1 INT and 200 yards. Back to the bench? 367 yards and 4 TDs.

Reality is he threw 17 TDs in 12 games this year, and a dozen in the other two. 2013? He threw 17 TDs in 13 games, and 11 in the other 3 games.

Year end totals are nice to look at, but they don't tell the story of owning Big Ben.

Yeah, but you're drafting Ben in the double-digit rounds so you're not relying on him to carry your team.

I think you guys are missing my point. I'm not saying he won't finish top 10, although I think a lock is a bit of a stretch. I'm not saying he's worse than Stafford, Ryan etc. I am saying he's basically the same as most of the guys between QB 5-15. If you're getting him in double digit rounds that's perfectly fine. The thought that he's a difference maker for your team is what I was disagreeing with.

 

[fightingillini]

The low Roethlisberger rankings are missing the boat.

He is #4 in 2014.

He was #6 in 2013.

He would have been #10 in 2012 but missed some games, under a first year OC and a new system.

These are all of his years under Todd Haley.

Here's the problem with ranking Ben as high as that. He's had 6 subpar weeks so far this year with two more to play yet. If you are counting on him week in and week out, he's going to hurt you often. He's also probably going to win you 2 or 3 weeks by himself if you start him. But in the leagues I play in, he wasn't even started for the weeks he went nuts because he was coming off some subpar performances.

As another example, look at his 2013 game logs. He threw 1 TD pass in 6 of his first 7 games. (2 in the other). Whose starting him at that point? He's a fringe starting QB. Then he goes off for 4TDs and 400 yards. So you start him the next week? Yep, 1 TD, 1 INT and 200 yards. Back to the bench? 367 yards and 4 TDs.

Reality is he threw 17 TDs in 12 games this year, and a dozen in the other two. 2013? He threw 17 TDs in 13 games, and 11 in the other 3 games.

Year end totals are nice to look at, but they don't tell the story of owning Big Ben.

You can say the same thing about a lot of QBs....like Matt Ryan. or Matthew Stafford. or Tony Romo. or Jay Cutler. Tom Brady killed owners early in the year. Even Russell Wilson, who has had a top 5 season, has had 4 games of 11 or less points in my 4 pt per TD pass league. That's the story when you wait to draft your QB. If they were practical locks to throw 2 or more TDs every game, you would have to burn an early pick on them.

BTW, 17 TDs in 12 games equates to a 23 TD season, and that's his worst games. And Big Ben is throwing for a ton of yards this year, and should continue to do that next year. He's averaging 315 yds a game this year.

Big Ben is a lock for top 10 production in 2015.

The low Roethlisberger rankings are missing the boat.

He is #4 in 2014.

He was #6 in 2013.

He would have been #10 in 2012 but missed some games, under a first year OC and a new system.

These are all of his years under Todd Haley.

Here's the problem with ranking Ben as high as that. He's had 6 subpar weeks so far this year with two more to play yet. If you are counting on him week in and week out, he's going to hurt you often. He's also probably going to win you 2 or 3 weeks by himself if you start him. But in the leagues I play in, he wasn't even started for the weeks he went nuts because he was coming off some subpar performances.

As another example, look at his 2013 game logs. He threw 1 TD pass in 6 of his first 7 games. (2 in the other). Whose starting him at that point? He's a fringe starting QB. Then he goes off for 4TDs and 400 yards. So you start him the next week? Yep, 1 TD, 1 INT and 200 yards. Back to the bench? 367 yards and 4 TDs.

Reality is he threw 17 TDs in 12 games this year, and a dozen in the other two. 2013? He threw 17 TDs in 13 games, and 11 in the other 3 games.

Year end totals are nice to look at, but they don't tell the story of owning Big Ben.

Yeah, but you're drafting Ben in the double-digit rounds so you're not relying on him to carry your team.

I think you guys are missing my point. I'm not saying he won't finish top 10, although I think a lock is a bit of a stretch. I'm not saying he's worse than Stafford, Ryan etc. I am saying he's basically the same as most of the guys between QB 5-15. If you're getting him in double digit rounds that's perfectly fine. The thought that he's a difference maker for your team is what I was disagreeing with.

I never said that Big Ben is a difference maker. I just think he's a solid option to draft in Round 6 or so, after you loaded up on solid RBs/WRs. I agree that he's not much different than 6 or so other QBs that are not Luck, Rodgers, Manning or Brees. But you were citing his subpar performances to knock Big Ben down.....and you can do that just for any non-elite QB.

Now if he's being drafted QB5 next year, I would probably pass on him and wait for another QB.

 

[just_want_2_win]

Article on this very topic from FFToday (well, almost -- top 12 in 2015 at QB, RB, WR, TE):

http://www.fftoday.com/articles/orth/14_aob_90_wonder_years.html

 

[cloppbeast]

Great thread. People can quibble about the rankings but these preliminary lists express how deep WR is going into 2015 and how valuable RB1s will be, especially in auction formats. All the question marks in the RB list suggest playing matchups / using the waiver wire for the RB2 position will be a wise strategy again in 2015.

I think there are 20-25 WRs who could conceivable finish in the top 10. It's going to be ridiculously deep.

If you're drafting early, you almost HAVE to take a RB. The position gets really dicey after the first 8 or 9 guys.

These things change so much from year to year, that usually the guys chasing last year's trend are a step behind. With all the FAs and rookies at the position, running back will look completely different next year.

Hey I didn't know taking a stud RB early is such a current fad.

If you had an early 1st round pick, what direction would you go?

1-5 picks every year usually go running back. I would be inclined to follow the herd.

 

[cloppbeast]

Great thread. People can quibble about the rankings but these preliminary lists express how deep WR is going into 2015 and how valuable RB1s will be, especially in auction formats. All the question marks in the RB list suggest playing matchups / using the waiver wire for the RB2 position will be a wise strategy again in 2015.

I think there are 20-25 WRs who could conceivable finish in the top 10. It's going to be ridiculously deep.

If you're drafting early, you almost HAVE to take a RB. The position gets really dicey after the first 8 or 9 guys.

These things change so much from year to year, that usually the guys chasing last year's trend are a step behind. With all the FAs and rookies at the position, running back will look completely different next year.

Hey I didn't know taking a stud RB early is such a current fad.

If you had an early 1st round pick, what direction would you go?

I know you and I are on the same wavelength with respect to the significant value of a stud RB, but just to advance the discussion, I would select J Charles or LV Bell without hesitation. If neither are available, I start nit-picking between McCoy, D Murray, M Forte, and AP (team-dependent).

re cloppbeast's remark: I agree the RB landscape changes annually due to factors previously listed (player movement) and factors not mentioned (for example, offensive coordinator changes, offensive line coach changes). However, elite RBs are quite limited (look at all the committees out there) so they are significantly more valuable than players at other positions (due to scarcity) and they are worthy of an early 1st-round pick. I have a hard time coming up with an argument for taking any other position with an early 1st.

the problem is that early rbs are gonna come with a lot of risk whereas the wrs look pretty safe. i mean, mccoy is getting vultured and had a bunch of down games. charles is a year older, is at risk of losing workload to knile. murray is gonna have like 400 touches this year. foster has all kinds of injury risk. lacy looked like a complete bust early in the year. lynch is nearly 30, has been talking retirement and obv takes a beating. forte will be 30. peterson? cmon. bell ofc does look like a great pick. will anderson split with ball and hillman?

so ya, i think id prefer to gamble on some of the elite wr like brown, jordy, julio, green, dez, thomas, beckham rather than those rbs outside of bell.

Hitting on a running back helps you more than hitting on a wide receiver. In a year like this, where so few late round ball carriers worked out, Matt Forte and Jamaal Charles made better 1st round picks than Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas, though they've both had good seasons.

Next year, though, could prove entirely different. Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, and Ameer Abdullah bring a lot of talent following some lackluster drafts. Free agents Marshawn Lynch, Stevan Ridley, CJ Spiller, Ryan Matthews, Mark Ingram, and Shane Vereen will certainly shake things up if they find new homes. How many of them, if any, will serve as a feature back? A lot of teams have some serious running back needs, will they sign somebody new or promote?

I just have a funny feeling that next year will have a few more middle-late round running backs which prove fruitful, sort of like wide receiver this year.

 

[Underachievers]

Amazing how quickly Josh Gordon is not even mentioned as a top 10 WR after 4 games.