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2018 - What We Learned (1 Viewer)

Joe Bryant said:
leave a whisper said:
with as much info there is about fantasy football (there is no off season) leagues need way deeper benches

owners who "stream" and work the wire multiple times weekly are annoying  --- reward "team builders" on draft day with 20-25+ man rosters
I think there's value in this.

It's why I hate stuff like first come first serve for FA pickups. That means the guy with the most time to spend online wins. It shouldn't be about who has the most free time. It should be about who can best predict what will happen. 
Redraft leagues, sure. 

In Dynasty though, as a commish, I prefer FCFS. It helps to keep owners active. Especially in the off-season. And, in Dynasty leagues, there shouldn't be an off-season. 

 
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Redraft leagues, sure. 

In Dynasty though, as a commish, I prefer FCFS. It helps to keep owners active. Especially in the off-season. And, in Dynasty leagues, there shouldn't be an off-season. 
How do you handle the owner who have widely varying ability to be online?

If you have a physician and a guy with a super flexible schedule, the guy with time wins on every player. 

Do you guys just say :shrug:  for the guy that can't be online as much? 

 
Redraft leagues, sure. 

In Dynasty though, as a commish, I prefer FCFS. It helps to keep owners active. Especially in the off-season. And, in Dynasty leagues, there shouldn't be an off-season. 
How do you handle the owner who have widely varying ability to be online?

If you have a physician and a guy with a super flexible schedule, the guy with time wins on every player. 

Do you guys just say :shrug:  for the guy that can't be online as much? 
There are weekly waivers during the season. FCFS all other times. These are rules that are known before the owner agrees to join the league. So, not necessarily :shrug:  but more of a "you knew what the waiver situation was when you joined". 

So, to those owners I'd say: If you don't have a schedule that allows for you to be as active as you'd like to be year-round, then maybe Dynasty leagues aren't for you. 

 
We solve the timing issue in the offseason by using daily waivers.  Takes away the “I got to the wire first when news broke” advantage, but still requires regular checking in to avoid being at a disadvantage.

I’d hate to tell someone not to play dynasty because they couldn’t log in more than once or twice a day...

 
Don't play in any dynasty leagues ... but in our six-man keeper, rosters are frozen between the league title game and next year's draft in September. Year-round FCFS is more common in dynasty than frozen offseason rosters?

 
I’d hate to tell someone not to play dynasty because they couldn’t log in more than once or twice a day...
That's a touch dramatic. I don't check in daily in the off-season and don't see it as a problem. I hear news, I see some blurb on a fantasy news site, I go to my leagues and make pickups if I see fit to do so.

 
There are weekly waivers during the season. FCFS all other times. These are rules that are known before the owner agrees to join the league. So, not necessarily :shrug:  but more of a "you knew what the waiver situation was when you joined". 

So, to those owners I'd say: If you don't have a schedule that allows for you to be as active as you'd like to be year-round, then maybe Dynasty leagues aren't for you. 


We solve the timing issue in the offseason by using daily waivers.  Takes away the “I got to the wire first when news broke” advantage, but still requires regular checking in to avoid being at a disadvantage.

I’d hate to tell someone not to play dynasty because they couldn’t log in more than once or twice a day...


That's a touch dramatic. I don't check in daily in the off-season and don't see it as a problem. I hear news, I see some blurb on a fantasy news site, I go to my leagues and make pickups if I see fit to do so.
Indeed.  I’m with you and was referring to the guy above me, who basically said that.  

If the league prefers a more casual offseason, weekly waivers could replace daily ones with little loss of quality.

I am decidedly NOT in the camp of mandating activity levels.

 
With the Season wrapped for many and almost done for everyone else, I'd love to hear from you about lessons learned this year.

I'm less interested in gloating about wins or commiserating about misses than I am identifying things we can apply going forward. 

Let's hear it. What did you learn?
I'm not sure I learned any general lessons. There's always things you get right and things you get wrong, but from a macro level it was a lot of confirmation bias. Draft players, not positions. Be aware of replacement value in your league. Pay no attention to handcuffs nor the schedule in August. Just try to get as many starters as possible. And early in the season keep churning to try and find more. The schedule becomes more important in season then handcuffs once getting later in the season. 

Most of my lessons were on an individual basis and I haven't reconciled any of them let alone putting pen to paper. I find that's a better exercise for the offseason. Let everything marinate then come back to it all with a clear head. 

 
Streaming QBs is significantly easier. In an average league, 12 QBs are started each week vs. 30 RBs and 30 WRs (assume start two of each plus a RB/WR flex). That means each team needs to find approximately one starter per NFL team for RB/WR, but for QBs they can pick and choose their starter from less than half of the total number of NFL teams.

What's more, the nature of the QB position is that whoever is starting pretty much has a guaranteed floor of production, whereas the floor of a marginal WR is basically zero. (That's also the reason that, even though the same supply and demand laws apply to TEs, streaming one is much harder than QB.)

Finally, there's a chicken-egg issue. Because RBs and WRs are more valuable, people are more likely to stockpile them, which only increases scarcity. The typical fantasy roster will have 4-5 RBs/WRs, and around 1.5 QBs. If there's a potentially useful RB/WR, someone will scoop them up. But useful QBs are far more likely to be on the WW and available for streaming in a given week. Very few people were holding Lamar Jackson before he got the starting job, but tons of people drafted Nick Chubb and held on until the Hyde trade made him valuable.
INjuries open up opportunities for numerous WR's to perform in a given week. And every NFL team will have 3, 4, 5 WRs actually produce SOMETHING in any given week...and one QB. In any given week, there are typically 2 or 3 options on the wire (except in the deeper leagues) that can produce WR3/flex numbers in your lineup....IE: STARTABLE, top 40 numbers. At QB, even in shallow leagues there's typically only 6 or 8 options who will play at all available on the wire, and of those only one or 2 have even the remote potential of scoring among the top 15 that week (and usually DON'T!) For every three weeks you stream a QB off the wire, you're lucky to have one time where they score as a "starting fantasy QB (top 12-15). What's the difference between QB8 (average starter) and QB 20 (average streamer) in a given week vs. WR 25 (generous WR 2/3 starter) and WR45 (that streamer who got opportunity due to injuries). I'd rather give up 2 or 3 points on my WR3 then 5, 6, 8 points at QB.

Top QBs in a given week CRUSH the scoring of the average streamable backup. Regularly.

If the argument is about which is easier to find, I'm not going to argue the point....there's easy options at QB that will score points. If we wanna talk about the IMPACT of those options, WR3/flex streaming makes more sense IMO. That's the lesson I learned this year. IN the league I was streaming QBs, I got crushed. In the league I had a stable QB and streamed flex players all year, I had far more success. AT least 8 times I picked up and started a waiver wire player, and in most cases that player scored flex worthy points.

 
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following up zftcg thought process (which I agree with) - for me it is worth taking my QB2 early enough so that I have essentially two QB1 and don't have to scrounge when it comes to stream time...most teams in my league don't even bother with a QB2 - and just scrounge to fill during the one bye week (assuming no injury to their #1).  Last two years that is how I landed Roethlisberger - got him after everyone had their QB1 somehow - and in both years he started more often than my #1 - and both years I won championships due to him.  Had I not used that strategy I guarantee I would have not won EITHER of the last two championships.  Something to think about.
Do a lot of people do this? I may just be lucky but I wait on QB and I wait even longer on his backup. And I RARELY start the back up. I have read way too many accounts of people starting their backup due to matchup or weather or something only to have their starter outscore them. And in the few times I have done it it has backfired more often than not. The only time I sit my starter is bye week, injury or if he is seriously underperforming. And I have rarely had to because I give them a long leash. 

However, it could be luck that it turned out that way. Had Favre when he was an old man and no one thought he had anything left, had Brady after he was no longer considered a top pick, had Stafford for a few years, and most recently Ben. So I don’t even consider the “streaming QB” theory. It’s plug and play for me. I think you get yourself into more trouble than not when you try to get a QB1 out of two QB2’s. 

 
1.  Spread your risk.  You hear it all the time, but when draft days rolled around, I picked Fournette and Baldwin everywhere I could.   I had Fournette/Gordon/Hunt all pretty close.  Had Baldwin close to several others.  Fournette missing so many weeks crippled multiple teams.  

2.  As others have said--Fade the holdouts/pre-season injury guys.  I never in a million years thought Bell would forego 15 million (or whatever the amount was).  I also thought Zeke was virutally the same player.  You know how the story ends.

3.  Stream defenses.  I took Jacksonille early in a few leagues.  I took Baltimore in several leagues.  At the end of the year, I was reading the FBG article for defenses to stream and picking up the best option in pretty much every league.  A lot of weeks, getting an ok defense against the Redskins 8th string QB is better than the Bears vs an average offense.  No sense in investing.

4.  Invest in Tight End.  At least the top 2, maybe 3.  I thought it was insane to spend a 2nd round pick on a tight end that might get you 800 yards.  Instead, people got McKinnon who got you nothing.  I personally got a lot of Doug Baldwin in the 3rd, some D Freeman in the 3rd.  A safe stud tight end is a good investment.  You're just as likely to lose anyone.

5.  Wait on QB confirmed.  Mahommes went how late?  Josh Allen had a huge stretch and was an FA.  Rothlesberger/Rivers were later picks.  

6.  Process matters all year.  Last year was a busy one.  I didn't pay a ton of attention at the end of the season or in the off-season.  Come July, I'm scrambling for data, trying to figure out what round to draft Kapernick.  

 
Not so sure about this. Waited on QB in one league, took Alex Smith, and struggled all year at the position. I think "waiting on QB" only works if you can correctly identify which QB will out-perform his draft slot.

But that's kind of the entire game of fantasy football, isn't it?

I think the key is to always try to grab guys that will out-perform where you're drafting them. Sometimes that might mean putting off QB (or another position), sometimes it won't. It's nice to not have to worry about a specific spot though.
I think the there's a different lesson to be learned here.  You took him at 12.2 when he was available at 14.8, 15.5, 15.12, and 14.7 in the other drafts.  I think the real lesson is to know your league tendencies and where you targets are likely to be drafted.  We all miss on draft picks, but when you miss, you don't want to miss and give up 2-3 rounds of draft capital.  Also most any miss can be fixed on the wire.  Mayfield, Winston/Fitz, and Trubisky were all top ten ppg ww guys.  The QB1s over the last 4 weeks included Allen, Jackson, Prescott, and Mullens all who were on the wire week 12 and they beat top picks like Brees, Brady, and Luck who were drafted early.

 
Do a lot of people do this? I may just be lucky but I wait on QB and I wait even longer on his backup. And I RARELY start the back up. I have read way too many accounts of people starting their backup due to matchup or weather or something only to have their starter outscore them. And in the few times I have done it it has backfired more often than not. The only time I sit my starter is bye week, injury or if he is seriously underperforming. And I have rarely had to because I give them a long leash. 

However, it could be luck that it turned out that way. Had Favre when he was an old man and no one thought he had anything left, had Brady after he was no longer considered a top pick, had Stafford for a few years, and most recently Ben. So I don’t even consider the “streaming QB” theory. It’s plug and play for me. I think you get yourself into more trouble than not when you try to get a QB1 out of two QB2’s. 
The answer to your question depends on replacement value and who you actually end up with at qb.

I expected to trim down to one qb at some point in two leagues, but with Luck and Roethlisberger I wasnt going to dump one. With Luck, Mahomes, and Trubisky in a start 2 qb league I certainly wasnt going to dump one of them after byes. If you get to a point in which you no longer need a backup and he is replacement value then he has no use on the roster. I drafted Trubisky and Stafford, but dumped the latter sometime in November. I needed to go to waivers to fill my lineup after the shoulder thing, but the guys I was playing were better than Stafford. 

 
Do a lot of people do this? I may just be lucky but I wait on QB and I wait even longer on his backup. And I RARELY start the back up. I have read way too many accounts of people starting their backup due to matchup or weather or something only to have their starter outscore them. And in the few times I have done it it has backfired more often than not. The only time I sit my starter is bye week, injury or if he is seriously underperforming. And I have rarely had to because I give them a long leash. 

However, it could be luck that it turned out that way. Had Favre when he was an old man and no one thought he had anything left, had Brady after he was no longer considered a top pick, had Stafford for a few years, and most recently Ben. So I don’t even consider the “streaming QB” theory. It’s plug and play for me. I think you get yourself into more trouble than not when you try to get a QB1 out of two QB2’s. 
For me it has been getting A QB1 out of 2 QB1s.  This year went Brady then grabbed Roethlisberger - turns out Roethlisberger became my 1 and Brady was used to package for an upgrade at WR (Lockett and Brady for Adams) once I got past Roethlisbergers bye.  Two years ago it was Roethlisberger and Carr (in that case Carr went nuts until he hurt his leg late in the season and I went back to Roeth to win the title).  I have been doing this for the last 3 years and have won the championship the last three years - not saying cause and effect but it sure worked out well.

 
Didn't actually learn this in 2018 but saw more of it in 2018.  That would be an athlete at the QB position as opposed to guys like Eli, Brady, Rivers.

Never seen so many modile/can scoot 20 QB's in the league. It only makes sense that had have another weapon out there, which a mobile QB is.

 
INjuries open up opportunities for numerous WR's to perform in a given week. And every NFL team will have 3, 4, 5 WRs actually produce SOMETHING in any given week
Please point to one example in NFL history where a team had five WRs produce in the same game.

Consider Chiefs-Rams, one of the greatest offensive explosions we've seen in our lifetimes:

CHIEFS WRs

  • Hill 10/215/2
  • Conley 7/74/2
  • Robinson 1/14/0
  • Watkins 1/4/0
RAMS WRs

  • Cooks 8/107/0
  • Reynolds 6/80/1
  • Woods 4/72/1
That's five startable WRs combined across the two teams. And again, in a game with a point total that doubled the average O/U in an NFL game.

My guess is that in an average NFL game, each team has 1-2 WRs who put up starter-quality numbers. And it can be very unpredictable which WRs it will be. For every 1-2 punch like Thielen/Diggs or AB/Juju, there are many more unsettled situations like ZJones/Foster, Jeffrey/Agholor or Stills/Parker/Amendola (or a stud like Julio or Hopkins backed up by a bunch of randos).

At QB, even in shallow leagues there's typically only 6 or 8 options who will play at all available on the wire, and of those only one or 2 have even the remote potential of scoring among the top 15 that week (and usually DON'T!) For every three weeks you stream a QB off the wire, you're lucky to have one time where they score as a "starting fantasy QB (top 12-15). What's the difference between QB8 (average starter) and QB 20 (average streamer) in a given week vs. WR 25 (generous WR 2/3 starter) and WR45 (that streamer who got opportunity due to injuries). I'd rather give up 2 or 3 points on my WR3 then 5, 6, 8 points at QB.

Top QBs in a given week CRUSH the scoring of the average streamable backup. Regularly.
The Living the Stream podcast suggests 2-3 streamers each week with some sort of ownership threshold (I think below 33%). That means it gets much harder by the end of the year, since early-season streamers like Mayfield or Jackson may have become too heavily owned to still be considered. And yet the aggregate numbers of their recommendations were something like QB 6. If you're getting QB20 production out of your streamers, you're doing it wrong.

Or to put it another way: The QBs in the QB20 range this year were guys like Keenum, Stafford and Eli. I don't care how deep your benches go, or how idiosyncratic your owners are; you can definitely find better options than that on the WW.

 
For the record, I'm deeply skeptical of any recommendations based on positional trends, like "Always invest in a stud TE because there's no depth." The fact that that may have been true this year does not make it an immutable law. I'm old enough to remember when people were saying you had to draft WRs like AB and Julio at the top of your draft ahead of stud RBs.

These "trends" people keep spotting are generally nothing more than statistical noise. In fact, one could argue that it's a good idea to be a contrarian and bet on the regression. While the rest of your league is chasing stud TEs, hold back and try to get the mid-tier guys who might pop.

Or better yet, realize that betting for or against trends is like trying to time the stock market. Stocking up on RBs/WRs and waiting on QB/TE makes sense because it's based on supply and demand, not trends. But beyond that, assume you know less than you think you do and just try to fill your roster with talented guys.

 
These two are subtle and often overlooked, but are both excellent pieces of advice.

Both concepts go hand-in hand with one another, IMHO. Almost never will the team you draft be the exact same team, man for man, as the team with which you go deep into the fantasy playoffs. A lot of fantasy owners -- even experienced ones -- will let a good team go on autopilot and never really turn over the bottom of their roster, instead feeling that chasing the same three or four annual bust-outs that everyone bids on is sufficient roster management.
One of my main home leagues, the runaway team sat back and did nothing while myself and one other owner essentially plucked every Edwards, D. Williams, Samules player you could imagine. Injuries to Conner, Beckham and Boyd destroyed them and they limped into the playoffs as the one seed and got swept out and finished 4th. They got zilch for having an amazing team through 12 weeks. 

Always, roster churn if you can—even if you have a great squad, if you can do it, it’s still better having that player on your team than theirs. 

 
How do you handle the owner who have widely varying ability to be online?

If you have a physician and a guy with a super flexible schedule, the guy with time wins on every player. 

Do you guys just say :shrug:  for the guy that can't be online as much? 
I don’t understand the complaints  about first come first serve. If an owner wants to be that super active, why should he be punished for that? My main home league has always been like this. We had two guys in particular who were RETIRED that complained all the time about being beaten to the punch on a player. One of these guys spent almost all his free time—of which he had a lot of!—Golfing. Everyone has instant access to information now. I’ll admit, I may be faster than most largely because I do more homework but I also have a job where I am completely removed from my phone hours at a time. I never care if someone is faster than me.

Blind bidding is far and away, the fairest way to handle waivers. That’s being said though, Some people though find that another layer of hassle and they are afraid to do it. We have never been able to enact that in my home league. But outside of of blind bidding, FCFS is the only fair way to do it. Worst to first and any other constraints to help owners that are less active is nothing but punishment for the better and more active owners and borders on communism LOL! 

And yes Joe, to your last point—TS for that guy. Get faster. That’s what competition is all about. In this day and age of instant information, this way forces you to get ahead of the curve so to speak. I know I sound a little harsh but after playing FFPC for years and trying to convince people that BB is the way to go if they don’t like FCFS, and still they balk at the idea, then no, I don’t feel sorry for the slow guy. I just don’t see a middle ground waivers that doesn’t reward the lousier teams and that ain’t right.

 
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I’ll repeat here what I’ve learned years ago, this board is by far the best tool to being better. Hands down. I do by the subscription especially for managing my multiple leagues but the information you get here from like minded, rabid fantasy players that have good insight on their home teams is invaluable. 2017 was the best overall year I ever had in fantasy largely from the intel I got here about Kamara. He was on almost every team of mine and it’s the most titles and money I’ve ever earned doing this. 

As I pointed out above, in this day and age of instant information, they way to get ahead of the curve is to have deeper insight into players and situations. An alert on your phone won’t replace the study you do here. 

 
Interesting...I agreed with you when he came out, but I really didn’t like the (lack of) ball skills he showed this year.  I’d be more inclined to put Howard there than Njoku, and for me they are down in the next tier with guys like Henry, with Engram atop that tier.

Love the TE conversation, but if it is getting too specific for Joe’s general topic thread it could do with its own topic...
Njoku fights with the ball too much. It was an issue in college and a issue now. Look at his thread you’ll see.

Tex

 
It’s still a good idea to wait on QB. 40 points separated 4-10 in my league. I got Ben in the 9th I believe and he finished 2nd. 
Thanks. That one is interesting as mid year I was hearing a lot of "Waiting on a QB is no longer a good strategy" talk. I've been thinking about this one. 
Not so sure about this. Waited on QB in one league, took Alex Smith, and struggled all year at the position. I think "waiting on QB" only works if you can correctly identify which QB will out-perform his draft slot.
Yea, but who are these QBs people took early that were so great at midseason?   Rodgers and Brady were 10th and 11th through 7 weeks.  Fitz, Tubisky and Mahomes are some of the top guys that were way late.   And the gap between 2 and 11th was 4 pts.... or a random TD in a 7 week span. 

Mahomes is the only guy ahead of a huge pack of about 15 or 16 QBs that scored pretty similar.   And when the names at the back of that are Wilson, Brady, Wentz, Mayfield... it shows again that next year you can wait there and still find a guy in the 8th or later.
My problem when I wait on QB is that I am not a great FF coach.  So if I have multiple options to start, I am not great a picking the right one weekly.  Getting a QB relatively early allows me to set it and forget it while I focus my bench on other positions.  I usually target the 5-8th QB off of the board.  This worked out poorly this year as a lot of the top guys underperformed.

 
One other thing and I'm not sure how to quantify it yet - or if it can. There are a lot of poorly run franchises in this league. Target players not on them and be careful targeting players on them. 

 
I don’t understand the complaints  about first come first serve. If an owner wants to be that super active, why should he be punished for that? My main home league has always been like this. We had two guys in particular who were RETIRED that complained all the time about being beaten to the punch on a player. One of these guys spent almost all his free time—of which he had a lot of!—Golfing. Everyone has instant access to information now. I’ll admit, I may be faster than most largely because I do more homework but I also have a job where I am completely removed from my phone hours at a time. I never care if someone is faster than me.

Blind bidding is far and away, the fairest way to handle waivers. That’s being said though, Some people though find that another layer of hassle and they are afraid to do it. We have never been able to enact that in my home league. But outside of of blind bidding, FCFS is the only fair way to do it. Worst to first and any other constraints to help owners that are less active is nothing but punishment for the better and more active owners and borders on communism LOL! 

And yes Joe, to your last point—TS for that guy. Get faster. That’s what competition is all about. In this day and age of instant information, this way forces you to get ahead of the curve so to speak. I know I sound a little harsh but after playing FFPC for years and trying to convince people that BB is the way to go if they don’t like FCFS, and still they balk at the idea, then no, I don’t feel sorry for the slow guy. I just don’t see a middle ground waivers that doesn’t reward the lousier teams and that ain’t right.
Extreme if not bizarre perspective.  Lots of people actually have lives, families and careers outside of their fantasy leagues (strange, I know).

The only rule that punishes good teams and favors bad teams is worst to first waivers.   There are other ways to establish waiver order.  I have no problem with weekly FCFS after a waiver run, which gives everyone equal access to the player pool.  I don't see the need for FCFS in the off-season and would prefer a weekly waiver run, if any access to players.  Not sure that I agree that the ability to run to the keyboard is indicative of a "better" owner.  Seems more like an advantage some don't want to surrender.  I'm more impressed by the ability to build a dominant team under an equitable system.

 
My problem when I wait on QB is that I am not a great FF coach.  So if I have multiple options to start, I am not great a picking the right one weekly.  Getting a QB relatively early allows me to set it and forget it while I focus my bench on other positions.  I usually target the 5-8th QB off of the board.  This worked out poorly this year as a lot of the top guys underperformed.
I get the logic in your situation, but I think that's probably the worst plan at QB. It's hindsight, but check the 5th-8th finish and compare it to the next five guys.  I doubt they score more enough or consistent enough to justify pulling that trigger a few rds earlier.  

I used to be terrible at picking starters also but have gotten better in recent years.  Prob luck based but the more willing I've been to make a risky call or go against site projections the better my results have been. 

 
Extreme if not bizarre perspective.  Lots of people actually have lives, families and careers outside of their fantasy leagues (strange, I know).

The only rule that punishes good teams and favors bad teams is worst to first waivers.   There are other ways to establish waiver order.  I have no problem with weekly FCFS after a waiver run, which gives everyone equal access to the player pool.  I don't see the need for FCFS in the off-season and would prefer a weekly waiver run, if any access to players.  Not sure that I agree that the ability to run to the keyboard is indicative of a "better" owner.  Seems more like an advantage some don't want to surrender.  I'm more impressed by the ability to build a dominant team under an equitable system.
Would agree, the people that argue for FCFS are the ones with lots of free time or constantly on a computer (where fantasy isn't blocked) or able to access their phone at any time. I don't see how that is indicative of a "better" owner in any way. To use his own example, take two owners that are "super active", if news breaks at 10:15am, why should the guy who had a meeting at work at 10am be punished over the guy who had a meeting at 9am and just got done in time to see the news and race to the waiver wire. Look no further than the Kareem Hunt news a month ago when guys like Ware, Williams & Williams were all snatched up right after the TMZ story broke. That was a Friday and most leagues weekly waivers had already run and it was a FCFS situation in most leagues.

IDK what a good replacement system would be, maybe something like blind bid daily waivers. Takes the randomness out of when news breaks and keeps the strategy element for "better owners" with having the blind bid component. You'd have to keep FCFS on Sunday mornings for the concerns about GTD's and such.

 
Lots of mentions for owners to continue "roster churn" throughout the season which is solid advice and goes hand in hand with waiting until late to select a quarterback (ten and twelve team leagues). Another one for me that I regretfully forget (with smaller leagues) is to not waste roster space drafting a second quarterback. There are always solid QB waiver options in the smaller leagues and additional roster space is a solid bonus.

The persistence drum beat for drafting many running backs early could pay dividends for those willing to zag. It is critical to get at least one solid running back, but depending on how flexible the starting requirements are, depth at wide receiver could be a solid strategy in 2019. 

 
Would agree, the people that argue for FCFS are the ones with lots of free time or constantly on a computer (where fantasy isn't blocked) or able to access their phone at any time. I don't see how that is indicative of a "better" owner in any way. To use his own example, take two owners that are "super active", if news breaks at 10:15am, why should the guy who had a meeting at work at 10am be punished over the guy who had a meeting at 9am and just got done in time to see the news and race to the waiver wire. Look no further than the Kareem Hunt news a month ago when guys like Ware, Williams & Williams were all snatched up right after the TMZ story broke. That was a Friday and most leagues weekly waivers had already run and it was a FCFS situation in most leagues.

IDK what a good replacement system would be, maybe something like blind bid daily waivers. Takes the randomness out of when news breaks and keeps the strategy element for "better owners" with having the blind bid component. You'd have to keep FCFS on Sunday mornings for the concerns about GTD's and such.
I don’t think you fully comprehended my post. I am most assuredly not the owner you describe.

And to reiterate, BB is the fairest way to go IMHO.

 
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I definitely learned the importance of leaving a few FAAB $ at the end.  A lot of useful players (like Damien Williams) came up at the end of the regular season/playoffs.

 
My problem when I wait on QB is that I am not a great FF coach.  So if I have multiple options to start, I am not great a picking the right one weekly.  Getting a QB relatively early allows me to set it and forget it while I focus my bench on other positions.  I usually target the 5-8th QB off of the board.  This worked out poorly this year as a lot of the top guys underperformed.
IMO a better way to do it is to figure out......how many QBs would I accept as my starter?  Say it's 10-12 (that's what is usually is for me)  Then you target your QB once 7-8 are off the board.

Targeting your QB at QB8-QB12 can allow you to wait 1-2 more rounds to get your QB as opposed to targeting QB5-QB8.  From my perspective, the difference between QB5 and QB10 is not significant at all.

 
My problem when I wait on QB is that I am not a great FF coach.  So if I have multiple options to start, I am not great a picking the right one weekly.  Getting a QB relatively early allows me to set it and forget it while I focus my bench on other positions.  I usually target the 5-8th QB off of the board.  This worked out poorly this year as a lot of the top guys underperformed.
Where you pick the QB doesn’t determine if you have to stream him or not. As I said before, I have NEVER picked a QB prior to the 8th round. And I also have never streamed QBs. If a lot of the top guys underperformed what does that mean? Guys that waited on QB had plug and forget QBs. I have a backup simply for injury, bye and serious underperformance by the guy I want to start. Just have confidence in your pick and roll with it. I would put money on people leaving points on the bench when they constantly flip flop QBs. 

 
the NFL is more unpredictable, week to week.Dallas goes to N.O. and beats the saints down, then they go to Indy and get blown out. the NFL wanted parity but I'm not sure it makes for a better product on the field. I kind of miss the days of a dominant team like SF, or Dallas ( 90s) or Redskins, Pitt from Cowher days. College has become more fun to watch, these cheesy , prestaged endzone celebrations are really, really bad. PI calls are more of a deciding factor ,especially late in games, that I'd had ever thought they could/would be.something has to change. 

with all that being said, the NFL had some fantastic matchups this season, perhaps the best MNF games in decades, and sunday night games as well..

 
Elevencents said:
Where you pick the QB doesn’t determine if you have to stream him or not. As I said before, I have NEVER picked a QB prior to the 8th round. And I also have never streamed QBs. If a lot of the top guys underperformed what does that mean? Guys that waited on QB had plug and forget QBs. I have a backup simply for injury, bye and serious underperformance by the guy I want to start. Just have confidence in your pick and roll with it. I would put money on people leaving points on the bench when they constantly flip flop QBs. 
Agreed. In an auction redraft, 12 teams, I ended up getting cam, Matt Ryan, Winston and trubisky. All were fairly cheap, cam bring the most expensive, trubisky costing only the $1 minimum bid. All 4 cost less than any of the top 6 individually. 

These ended up being 3 top 12 QBs on average. So in that way I drafted well (at least for the position)

 I think I played the right one less often than if I had just used one all year. At least it wasn't worth the thought put in each week. 

 
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the NFL is more unpredictable, week to week. Dallas goes to N.O. and beats the saints down ...
Your overall point is taken. One correction: if you're referring the November 29th, 2018 N.O.-vs.-Dallas game ... that game was played in Dallas.

 
I don't know.  I used my 10th to grab Jax only to drop them by midseason. Bi picked up Baltimore to only have them give me negative points two out of three weeks.
When I wasn't impressed with the wr/rb/te/qb available, I altered my normal strategy of waiting on a defense and decided to get off the defense streaming roller coaster. I drafted Jacksonville and Houston in a couple of leagues this year as a result.  I had dearly wanted Baltimore in the league in which I got Houston but they went a pick sooner.  All 3 defenses hit the waiver wire at some point. And I was stubborn enough waiting for my defenses to turn it around that I missed out on the surprise defenses this year.  😥

 
fightingillini said:
IMO a better way to do it is to figure out......how many QBs would I accept as my starter?  Say it's 10-12 (that's what is usually is for me)  Then you target your QB once 7-8 are off the board.

Targeting your QB at QB8-QB12 can allow you to wait 1-2 more rounds to get your QB as opposed to targeting QB5-QB8.  From my perspective, the difference between QB5 and QB10 is not significant at all.
I agree.  Part of my thinking, at least in smaller 10 team leagues, is that there will be plenty of RB/WR depth on the wire and that getting a guy that has top upside could be worth it.  I do a better job waiting in larger leagues.  It has mixed success.  I've caught a couple of great seasons doing this.  This year it ended up being Wilson and Brady, not so good.

 
with as much info there is about fantasy football (there is no off season) leagues need way deeper benches

owners who "stream" and work the wire multiple times weekly are annoying  --- reward "team builders" on draft day with 20-25+ man rosters
arent most of the "team builders" on draft day the same people as the try hards who work waivers hard all year? you'd have to have a full league of try hards to have 25 man rosters work as intended... otherwise the try hards will just hoard talent and the gap between casuals and try hards widens when you give try hards more roster spots.

 
Not technically a lesson from 2018, since I had learned it previously, but an important one nonetheless: Don't fight last year's war. In the 2017 draft, I targeted late-round QBs/TEs I saw as breakout candidates, and hit on both Wentz and Ertz (in separate leagues). My lesson heading into this year was not that I should draft those guys again, it was that I should try to find this year's versions: guys I could draft relatively late who had Top 5 upside. Which is what led me to draft Mahomes, Luck and Kittle (and also Burton, but you can't win them all).

 
arent most of the "team builders" on draft day the same people as the try hards who work waivers hard all year? you'd have to have a full league of try hards to have 25 man rosters work as intended... otherwise the try hards will just hoard talent and the gap between casuals and try hards widens when you give try hards more roster spots.
Yeah, I'm definitely in the "try hard" camp. All of my leagues have short (5-man) benches. If I had bigger benches, I would stash a whole bunch of prospects without having to worry about making many sacrifices. Frequently, some of the biggest WW gems are guys like Lindsay, who weren't on anyone's radar in the preseason and probably would have gone undrafted even in leagues with 25-man rosters.

Meanwhile, nothing will drive the more casual players out of the league faster than forcing them to scour depth charts for WR7s and TE4s.

 
zftcg said:
Yeah, I'm definitely in the "try hard" camp. All of my leagues have short (5-man) benches. If I had bigger benches, I would stash a whole bunch of prospects without having to worry about making many sacrifices. Frequently, some of the biggest WW gems are guys like Lindsay, who weren't on anyone's radar in the preseason and probably would have gone undrafted even in leagues with 25-man rosters.

Meanwhile, nothing will drive the more casual players out of the league faster than forcing them to scour depth charts for WR7s and TE4s.
Guess it's just me then - but I prefer not to play with casual owners and/or those who "stream" QB, K, D every week ........   win the league on draft day (1 of the 10 best days of the year), not a week 6 waiver add I say   :2cents:

To each his own .......

 
I wish team defenses, kickers and ppr would die, in that order.

I think we learned that the top wrs are fading away and not many young guys are stepping up.

I’d say not many things are a shock but the small rbs are getting more relevant. A 3 down stud is great but guys like Cohen can be found late and be a lot of help. 
Tons of relatively young WR's that kicked butt this year like Hill, Hopkins, Adams, Diggs just to name a few.  There were 8 guys with 100 receptions and one 3 grabs shy of it, none of whom were surprising.   

As for the small RB's in recent year's I've found them to be very useful in the regular season but they have been unreliable for me in the playoffs.  Cohen, for example, completely disappeared this year in the playoffs.  He scored a fraction of his season pace in the postseason as they were grinding with Howard in much of December.  Last year Chris Thompson got a lot of people to a very good record then was hurt by playoff time.  In the past I've been let down in the playoffs by Danny Woodhead after relying on him much of the season due to his PPR numbers.  I've had a couple of other similar players flounder in the playoffs as well but I can't recall the names off the top of my head. 

For those of you talking about defenses early, if you nabbed the Rams or Texans you might be happy but even Baltimore was 6th in the one league I checked while popular picks like Jacksonville, Carolina, Philly finished way down the list.  The top defense by far was Chicago whom was taken off the waiver wire in every league I was in.  People knew they'd be better with Mack but nobody knew how much better they would be.  Defenses are a crapshoot every single year.  Perennial crap defenses like New Orleans and Indy were even useful at times during the season as streamers.  People mention Dallas as being a great defense but they finished way, way down the standings after underachieving much of the year.

 
Streaming QBs is significantly easier. In an average league, 12 QBs are started each week vs. 30 RBs and 30 WRs (assume start two of each plus a RB/WR flex). That means each team needs to find approximately one starter per NFL team for RB/WR, but for QBs they can pick and choose their starter from less than half of the total number of NFL teams.

What's more, the nature of the QB position is that whoever is starting pretty much has a guaranteed floor of production, whereas the floor of a marginal WR is basically zero. (That's also the reason that, even though the same supply and demand laws apply to TEs, streaming one is much harder than QB.)

Finally, there's a chicken-egg issue. Because RBs and WRs are more valuable, people are more likely to stockpile them, which only increases scarcity. The typical fantasy roster will have 4-5 RBs/WRs, and around 1.5 QBs. If there's a potentially useful RB/WR, someone will scoop them up. But useful QBs are far more likely to be on the WW and available for streaming in a given week. Very few people were holding Lamar Jackson before he got the starting job, but tons of people drafted Nick Chubb and held on until the Hyde trade made him valuable.
I have to throw a little shade on the QB part...there are some weeks where you have 6 teams on bye....then you throw in some owners who may be carrying 2 maybe 3 QB's....and then a guy sees you are streaming and has a higher WW pick than you and snags a guy you want....or you pick up a guy and he gets yanked at half...all of a sudden streaming QB's isn't necessarily "easy"....you can really be streaming from the worst of the worst....

I don't really look at guys like Jackson as a "streamer" because once he got the job, he never let it go and when he was picked up, he was probably never dropped....did he go undrafted, sure, maybe....but he isn't the true definition of a "streamer"....

is your streamer going to give you borderline QB1 numbers that week ..(top 12)..?...maybe...but there is just as good a chance he doesn't....those that played with the Winston/Fitzpatrick streaming yo yo this year, probably lost 2-3 to possibly 4 games this year because of that situation....I know I did in one league....

and I guess my definition of a "useful" QB is maybe a little different....with the kind of numbers the top guys can put up these days and all of the things mentioned above, you can find yourself in a pretty big hole off the bat at QB "streaming" against the guys who have the Mahomes/insert other plug and play QB here....in today's NFL, I am on the opposite side of those that say wait on a QB....I think there is something to be said for having a stud and paying the price for them early....but thats just me....yeah you will have years like what Rodgers did this year, but the weekly WDIS question at QB is one that I would rather not deal with throughout the season....there are enough of those at WR3 or your Flex or whatever....I'll roll the dice that I can draft in the mid to late rounds and work the WW better then my league mates at those positions....give me a stud QB I don't have to worry about and I like my chances...

 
what I learned....or keep learning...

1. playing "keep away" is probably one of the most underrated parts of playing FF... especially these days/technology/information.....every roster spot is valuable.....even if you don't need the guy on the WW and he might ride your bench....at least he is not in someone else's starting lineup....make your team better every week cause when you do you also make other teams weaker....

2. along those same lines.....pay attention to other owners rosters....anticipate their needs and moves....you can mange your roster, but in some ways you can also manage other owners rosters....in todays world with basically the same information available to all levels of FF players, any advantage you can gain can help.....especially against maybe the other "quality" teams in your league....example: if one of the other contending teams has Gurley, snag (at the time Malcolm Brown) or beat him to CJA if the opportunity presents itself...another example: in almost all of my leagues I drafted Mahomes this year....and in some leagues where we have 20-21 man "deep" rosters there were times where I may have carried up to 3-4 maybe 5 QB's....I saw the guys that were "streaming" or had QB injuries and I stashed a few QB's for a few weeks when I saw these owners coming up on my schedule....even though I had no intention of ever playing them....

3. sometimes you have to plant your flag on some guys and base your draft around them.....I did this on Mahomes....I am not bragging about it....and I guess I could have been wrong, but I was pretty confident I wasn't going to be....this allowed me to focus elsewhere....you should be flexible in your draft, but it's also good to have a plan and maybe some core guys you are planning on riding and dying with in rounds 6-12 or so....sometimes it works out....

4. it only takes one other owner to think like you do to ruin your plan on a guy....if you planted that flag, don't be scared to do what others might call a "reach".....I'd rather reach and miss than not reach and miss out....

5. know your FF strengths and weaknesses....I suck at WDIS situations...I mean I really suck....even with help of FBG, I still usually start the wrong guy when it comes to guys ranked closely....which is why I am not a big "streaming" guy....but I probably know the league rules and scoring systems in my leagues better than any other owner....and I can work the #### out of the WW and add/drops....and using the "a dropped player is on hold for 24 hours" ....I know how to manipulate that stuff a little without it really being "churning"....so with all of this....I draft accordingly.... and that's why I will probably take a QB earlier than most and I may "reach" more than most....

 
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As Stiinkin Ref points out the idea of streaming is overly idealized and works from the assumption that other owners in your league wont beat you to the punch. 

If everyone is playing by those rules then great, you will have more available on waivers to choose from, but if they are not? Your assumption of quality QB being available to pick up may not actually be the case.

All of this depends on the league of course. Blanket statements about always streaming seem to assuime that the other 11 owners are asleep at the wheel.

 
As Stiinkin Ref points out the idea of streaming is overly idealized and works from the assumption that other owners in your league wont beat you to the punch. 

If everyone is playing by those rules then great, you will have more available on waivers to choose from, but if they are not? Your assumption of quality QB being available to pick up may not actually be the case.

All of this depends on the league of course. Blanket statements about always streaming seem to assuime that the other 11 owners are asleep at the wheel.
Agreed.  Streaming defenses is a good strategy if you don't end up with an every week starter, but streaming things like QB's is a crapshoot based on if others beat you to the punch or if the mediocre guys that are available actually step up to the plate in the matchups they are being touted for.  In most cases with QB's, if a player is reliable from week to week then they are likely to be owned. 

 

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