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2021 Offseason IDP Catchall (2 Viewers)

NEWS ARTICLES > TRACY WALKER: RETURNING TO FREE SAFETY

PUBLISHED TUE JUL 20 1:43:04 P.M. ET 2021 

(RotoWire) Walker is back to playing more of a free safety role this offseason, Tim Twentyman of the Lions' official site reports.

Analysis: While organizing a Detroit defense that ultimately finished last season with franchise-worst marks in total yards (6,716) and points (519) allowed, the Lions' old coaching staff had moved Walker from the free safety role he excelled in during 2019 to more of a strong safety role in 2020. The result was 16 less tackles in two less games for Walker compared to his 2019 numbers that saw him average nearly eight tackles per game. Since it seems like the Lions' new regime is returning Walker back to his natural role at starting free safety, the 26-year-old is back in the mix as an interesting IDP prospect ahead of the 2021 campaign.

 
Thx for the heads up.  The bigger issue last year were less snap % per game he played.  Generally a SS will be better statwise for fantasy

 
Flying Elvis said:
A boost to Will Harris' value? What do we know about how the new regime deploys safeties? 
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That was my immediate takeaway. They made zero investments in the position during the offseason, the only other safety on the roster that had any snaps (only 211 total) in 2020 was CJ Moore, and none of these guys were here last year to develop an attachment to someone buried on the depth chart. POE, no other reasonable conclusion beyond this being a good thing for Harris comes to mind.

I think this is smart of the Lions. There was no way this defense would be any better than terrible this year. They invested in the line and took a couple of low probability shots elsewhere. Address the obvious holes in key areas then see if young guys emerge in the less obvious (but still likely) gaps and re-assess going into 2022. Cause this is probably going to be a multi year rebuild anyway.

 
The Man With No Name said:
Not sure how useful this is for 2021. Came across it and though it was worth sharing - Would be more useful if broken down more. 
(I only play Dynasty)

Rookie IDP Hit Rate Tracker
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Don't know if this is what you had in mind as more useful, but I ran across this last year and the poster updated it in 2021 with better data.  Similar but different perspective

Article: https://supersmashpros.football/2021/04/18/idp-rookies-a-look-at-draft-capital-and-hit-rate/

Tweets: https://twitter.com/djkelltown/status/1383955671280881672

edit: just for clarity, that's number of "hits" within 3 years of being drafted

 
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inyoutees said:
Don't know if this is what you had in mind as more useful, but I ran across this last year and the poster updated it in 2021 with better data.  Similar but different perspective

Article: https://supersmashpros.football/2021/04/18/idp-rookies-a-look-at-draft-capital-and-hit-rate/

Tweets: https://twitter.com/djkelltown/status/1383955671280881672

edit: just for clarity, that's number of "hits" within 3 years of being drafted
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So if a player is drafted higher by the NFL he is more likely to "hit".  Isn't this common sense?  This doesn't really tell you much about what the "hit" players have in common within those draft brackets so you can pick out the 40% of first round LB's that hit.  I am not sure how much help this really is or am I missing something?

 
inyoutees said:
Don't know if this is what you had in mind as more useful, but I ran across this last year and the poster updated it in 2021 with better data.  Similar but different perspective

Article: https://supersmashpros.football/2021/04/18/idp-rookies-a-look-at-draft-capital-and-hit-rate/

Tweets: https://twitter.com/djkelltown/status/1383955671280881672

edit: just for clarity, that's number of "hits" within 3 years of being drafted
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I incorporated this, https://www.dynastynerds.com/idp-value-in-an-offensive-world-pt-6/, and McNamara's stuff from Analytics of Dynasty on the offensive side to come up with an overall rating for all rookies this year, as the first step to coming up with rankings and tiers.  I was really happy with the results.  The biggest things I ended up with:

  • Etienne over Chase/Pitts
  • Sermon/Bateman/Marshall a tier above Moore/Moore
  • There were 20 players clearly higher than the rest in formula value.  There was a drop from ratings of 21-66 among the first 20 players down to 3-14 for the rest of the players.  Some notes about that top 20:

    Includes Freiermuth, Eskridge, and Atwell
  • Didn't include any IDPs, Carter, Rodgers, or Collins.
  • Didn't change in superflex (order did, but not the players in the top 20)

I was happy with the results.  I messed around with rankings within the tiers, but cheated in three cases: I moved the Moores above Toney, and in SF+TE premium I moved Mac Jones above Toney and Freiermuth, and moved the lesser TEs down a bit since there was no consensus and I figured I could just pick up whoever didn't get drafted (Tremble, McKitty, Long, Bates, Granson) if I wanted one.

 
Gally said:
So if a player is drafted higher by the NFL he is more likely to "hit".  Isn't this common sense?  This doesn't really tell you much about what the "hit" players have in common within those draft brackets so you can pick out the 40% of first round LB's that hit.  I am not sure how much help this really is or am I missing something?
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It can give you some tiers... for example, by default JOK should be behind Parsons/Collins/Davis.  It doesn't help you sort out those three, but it says you'd need a good reason to bump JOK above them.

 
Tick said:
It can give you some tiers... for example, by default JOK should be behind Parsons/Collins/Davis.  It doesn't help you sort out those three, but it says you'd need a good reason to bump JOK above them.
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Agree with Tick.  It's not the end-all-be-all of data, but I thought it was perhaps what Man with No Name was looking for. 

For me it's most useful in rookie drafts when we are well past the big names in the mid-to-late rounds of deep leagues.  I think the numbers are definitely common sense, but it helps me sometimes to just have it hit me in the face that no, I shouldn't be looking at 6th round LBs like my league mates tend to draft when there are some out of favor 2nd or 3rd round DE or S prospect available (or more specifically, choosing between an offense and IDP player in the mid-section of the draft).  This data has never been a deciding factor for me, but it helps me to keep perspective.  Nothing more

 
Two of my own IDP observations from Green Bay:

- 1st round pick Eric Stokes is getting work with the 1st team defense and could be a decent pick for those that try and hit on a rookie CB each year.  Playing across from Jaire Alexander could make that situation worth watching in deep leagues with CBs.

- In more traditional IDP leagues De'Vondre Campbell seems to have worked his way into a starting ILB role.  Not sure what percentage of defensive snaps he'll receive but he looks good thus far.  He's also been able to stay on the field year after year, which bodes well.

 
LB Davion Taylor

While he suffered a minor quad injury towards the end of the week, Taylor was running with the first-team defense throughout the first three practices of camp. After basically being a non-factor as a rookie, Taylor took extra time to invest in his studies and fieldwork this offseason. That extra work paid as the Eagles’ staff has put him in the starting linebacker competition. He’s looked competent against the first-team offense.

 
The Man With No Name said:
LB Davion Taylor

While he suffered a minor quad injury towards the end of the week, Taylor was running with the first-team defense throughout the first three practices of camp. After basically being a non-factor as a rookie, Taylor took extra time to invest in his studies and fieldwork this offseason. That extra work paid as the Eagles’ staff has put him in the starting linebacker competition. He’s looked competent against the first-team offense.
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These kinds of updates are great, but can be so maddening.  Who else is out there? Passing and running downs? What alignment? I mean, maybe he's a 2-down SLB or maybe he's a 3-down MLB with the green dot.  Maybe he's playing ahead of Singleton, but we can't tell.

It's time for Taylor to make it, though - I've dropped him from all my rosters.

 
Tick said:
These kinds of updates are great, but can be so maddening.  Who else is out there? Passing and running downs? What alignment? I mean, maybe he's a 2-down SLB or maybe he's a 3-down MLB with the green dot.  Maybe he's playing ahead of Singleton, but we can't tell.

It's time for Taylor to make it, though - I've dropped him from all my rosters.
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Saying Taylor entered the league raw would be a vast understatement. If he was going to hit it wasn't going to happen til this season. Certainly could be one of those cases in which he opens the year as a 70%er and grows into a FT role during the season.

 
MAC_32 said:
Saying Taylor entered the league raw would be a vast understatement. If he was going to hit it wasn't going to happen til this season. Certainly could be one of those cases in which he opens the year as a 70%er and grows into a FT role during the season.
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Yeah, I just have stopped waiting for the Darrell Taylors and Davion Taylors of the world. I’ll just grab a Neville Hewitt or Eric Wilson off waivers in week 2 and repeat the next year. No need to keep an IDP on the roster if they’re unproven and not scoring when waivers are so rich.  If Baron Browning and Derrick Barnes don’t start, I’ll be quick to dump them for this year’s Jewell or Oluokun.

 
Tick said:
Yeah, I just have stopped waiting for the Darrell Taylors and Davion Taylors of the world. I’ll just grab a Neville Hewitt or Eric Wilson off waivers in week 2 and repeat the next year. No need to keep an IDP on the roster if they’re unproven and not scoring when waivers are so rich.  If Baron Browning and Derrick Barnes don’t start, I’ll be quick to dump them for this year’s Jewell or Oluokun.
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I don't disagree with this approach, but then why draft mid round rookies? I covet them in some formats, but generally disregard them in others. Just depends on what I expect on the edges of my rosters and how my opposition treats rookies. 

 
MAC_32 said:
I don't disagree with this approach, but then why draft mid round rookies? I covet them in some formats, but generally disregard them in others. Just depends on what I expect on the edges of my rosters and how my opposition treats rookies. 
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This approach is pretty spot on.  For esample, a 12 team IDP salary cap (w/min. 36) vs a 32 team IDP salary cap(w/36 Min) calls for vastly different value assessments.

 
Joe Schobert trade to Pitt good for his value? Possible he splits time or still a three down guy?

 
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Tick said:
Yeah, I just have stopped waiting for the Darrell Taylors and Davion Taylors of the world. I’ll just grab a Neville Hewitt or Eric Wilson off waivers in week 2 and repeat the next year. No need to keep an IDP on the roster if they’re unproven and not scoring when waivers are so rich.  If Baron Browning and Derrick Barnes don’t start, I’ll be quick to dump them for this year’s Jewell or Oluokun.
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That's where I have drifted to.  I'd much rather sit on a RB like Xavier Jones or QB (16 man leagues) or TE (TE premium) and hold those as they have positional value that can transcend their literal scoring value.  

MAC_32 said:
I don't disagree with this approach, but then why draft mid round rookies? I covet them in some formats, but generally disregard them in others. Just depends on what I expect on the edges of my rosters and how my opposition treats rookies. 
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Just to get a look at them in pre-season.  LB in particular you can really get a good, accurate sneak-peek at and if there's an injury in front of them you've got the perfect Miles Burris situation.  We might see this in action with Dylan Moses now.

It's not the investment that's painful, it's the limited roster or taxi space they suck up for a year or more.  Although consistent with my comment above I avoid these too, preferring to stock up on Javian Hawkins or Elijiah Mitchells types.

 
Thoughts on Tae Crowder? I see most depth charts have him at Will but can’t find much in the way of updates/articles 

 My leagues start a minimum of 48 LB/week

 
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Kraft... said:
Joe Schobert trade to Pitt good for his value? Possible he splits time or still a three down guy?
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Possible he splits? Sure, but it'd be really dumb of Pittsburgh to do a move like this with that as a realistic potential outcome. I think the motivation is a contingency for Bush and to minimize the amount of times they put > 4-5 DB's on the field. Their front 7 is stout, but that secondary is paper thin beyond Minkah.

 
MAC_32 said:
I don't disagree with this approach, but then why draft mid round rookies? I covet them in some formats, but generally disregard them in others. Just depends on what I expect on the edges of my rosters and how my opposition treats rookies. 
Click to expand...
I don't really draft them.  I tend to pick them up on waivers post-rookie draft just to hold them through the preseason and see what news we get out of camp.  If someone else bids 2 FA bucks, I'll usually just let them go.  I just checked, and across my 6 IDP rookie drafts this offseason, I didn't select a single IDP.  The top end was going too early and the bottom end was available on waivers... or another similar guy was.

Guys I picked up after rookie drafts for 1 FAB each (one PTurner cost 20 FABs):

Browning (3), Nasirildeen, Deablo (2), Basham, PTurner (2), Barnes

 
Sharing my favorite new Twitter list:

https://twitter.com/i/lists/1356358875948011520

Tweets from the Athletic writers for every NFL team.  I have picked up some really nice nuggets from this thread. 

Also, my twitter list of IDP guys. 

https://twitter.com/i/lists/775481496144490496

I bounced a couple guys out recently as every tweet is an un-readable link to whatever sorry podcast they are appearing on.  Good for you if you are making soe money off this, but if your Twitter feed is just retweets to podcasts, I'll unplug. 

Anyone else subscribe to the Athletic? It's awesome.  The best beat writers are there, it's not hot takes at all, and the best writing. I am reading great writing about sports I don't even care about.  

 
massraider said:
Anyone else subscribe to the Athletic? It's awesome.  The best beat writers are there, it's not hot takes at all, and the best writing. I am reading great writing about sports I don't even care about.  
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Yeah, I picked it up last Black Friday for $1/month.  I'm a hockey fan and the Down Goes Brown articles are some of the funniest articles out there for me.  The football coverage is just a bonus.

 
Tick said:
Yeah, I picked it up last Black Friday for $1/month.  I'm a hockey fan and the Down Goes Brown articles are some of the funniest articles out there for me.  The football coverage is just a bonus.
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I'm gonna look that up.

I've been reading random articles about Barcelona salary struggles, and I don't know any of the players really

 
Have subscribed for a few years and love it. There are  discounts that can reduce the price down pretty low.

in addition, Athletic subscribers get a discount on a DLF subscription.

 
JoeSteeler said:
Have subscribed for a few years and love it. There are  discounts that can reduce the price down pretty low.

in addition, Athletic subscribers get a discount on a DLF subscription.
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I don't want to turn this into the Athletic thread, but they also have a free FF competition - I'm in a draft for it right now.

 
Tick said:
I don't want to turn this into the Athletic thread, but they also have a free FF competition - I'm in a draft for it right now.
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Did not know that, thanks 

shoot, missed it by a few days

 
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Who are your targets in dynasty leagues, beyond the top guys?

A Jordyn Brooks thread

I have to make a decision on him as a keeper, and now I am starting to think I wanna make a play for him in other leagues. He wasn't Ray Lewis as a rookie, sometimes those guys' value drops too far. 

Harold Landry/Bud Dupree-And other players like them. Assuming True Position next year.

What I'd really like to do is grab a couple of these guys in small trades, and have DE set for 3 or 4 years. I think most owners don't know about the changes next year, these 3-4 OLB types are about to become very useful starters. I'm still thinking about this strategy.  

Logan Wilson-Seems like a really solid floor.

 
I'm feeling lost on so many guys.

  • I don't think I've read Blake Cashman's name, even when Jarrad Davis went down.  Sherwood got mentioned in game, but was supposed to be rotating games with Nasirildeen.
  • No idea what's going on with the Rams.  Is it really going to be Young as every-down LB with Reeder as most-downs LB and Kiser left out?
  • Still no clarity on Chargers LBs - maybe Murray/White instead of Tranquill?
  • Jacob Phillips went down... who steps in next to Walker? Takitaki, Mack Wilson?
  • WFT LBs - Holcomb/Davis/Bostic - who's in on passing downs?
  • Neville Hewitt lost out to Cunningham and Kirksey, right?
  • Did Strnad pass Jewell while he was hurt? Browning nowhere to be seen.
  • Is it really Keanu Neal at the second LB spot ahead of Smith and LVE?
  • Anzalone, really?
  • Bonus: Darrell Taylor - he's either the 4th DE on one side or the starting LEO or starting SLB depending on where I look.  No idea what's happening here.
 
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Tick said:
I'm feeling lost on so many guys.

  • I don't think I've read Blake Cashman's name, even when Jarrad Davis went down.  Sherwood got mentioned in game, but was supposed to be rotating games with Nasirildeen.
  • No idea what's going on with the Rams.  Is it really going to be Young as every-down LB with Reeder as most-downs LB and Kiser left out?
  • Still no clarity on Chargers LBs - maybe Murray/White instead of Tranquill?
  • Jacob Phillips went down... who steps in next to Walker? Takitaki, Mack Wilson?
  • WFT LBs - Holcomb/Davis/Bostic - who's in on passing downs?
  • Neville Hewitt lost out to Cunningham and Kirksey, right?
  • Did Strnad pass Jewell while he was hurt? Browning nowhere to be seen.
  • Is it really Keanu Neal at the second LB spot ahead of Smith and LVE?
  • Anzalone, really?
  • Bonus: Darrell Taylor - he's either the 4th DE on one side or the starting LEO or starting SLB depending on where I look.  No idea what's happening here.
Click to expand...


Ok, well that makes me feel a bit better that I'm not on the only one!  Specifically with the uncertainty in the situation for the LBer groups in LAC/LAR/WFT...   Hoping the Rams stick with Reeder, and would like to see Tranquil be the guy for the Chargers.  But really nothing to comfortably bank on with those two situations.    Davis in WFT has the chops to be the guy, but will WFT take a slow approach with him?

 
Tick said:
I'm feeling lost on so many guys.

  • I don't think I've read Blake Cashman's name, even when Jarrad Davis went down.  Sherwood got mentioned in game, but was supposed to be rotating games with Nasirildeen.
  • No idea what's going on with the Rams.  Is it really going to be Young as every-down LB with Reeder as most-downs LB and Kiser left out?
  • Still no clarity on Chargers LBs - maybe Murray/White instead of Tranquill?
  • Jacob Phillips went down... who steps in next to Walker? Takitaki, Mack Wilson?
  • WFT LBs - Holcomb/Davis/Bostic - who's in on passing downs?
  • Neville Hewitt lost out to Cunningham and Kirksey, right?
  • Did Strnad pass Jewell while he was hurt? Browning nowhere to be seen.
  • Is it really Keanu Neal at the second LB spot ahead of Smith and LVE?
  • Anzalone, really?
  • Bonus: Darrell Taylor - he's either the 4th DE on one side or the starting LEO or starting SLB depending on where I look.  No idea what's happening here.
Click to expand...


Info has been a murky this preseason, for sure. IDP Guru's 3DLB article was updated yesterday.

NYJ - no idea where they turn for ILB. Sherwood gets the mention in this ESPN article. Nasirildeen has been a camp star that, from what I've been reading, was expected to start as WLB so maybe he gets first crack at a 3DLB spot? Cashman is mentioned as an "NYJ also has this guy" which doesn't bode well, imo. Notes from Guru do not reflect Davis injury so no help there.

Rams are a complete mystery. I've added and/or traded away the ILB candidates and have trouble finding anything useful. Listed as Kiser by Guru with the caveat that he's not all that good, essentially. I'd grab the rookie (if he wasn't drafted) as a wait and see since we already know the other guys in the group were unable to run away with their chance over the last 2 seasons.

Chargers online coverage and coach speak has been pretty consistent that Tranquil is the running mate for Murray but White continues to get mentioned as a player they need to get on the field. With Tranquil's injury history, handcuffing him is wise if you can. I'm starting Drue in a contract league... I'd be happier with a more reliable, known commodity, though. IDP Guru still lists Murray as the only 3DLB.

CLE / WAS are not really on my radar, tbh. Their players are not available on wires in my leagues so I've given them little attention. I'd go with the rookies for both teams if possible. Holcomb gets mentioned as the green dot for WFT, very interesting. 

Hewitt lost. Kirksey is good for a game or two before injury hits, though. I'd keep Hewitt if possible, as that team is likely to see a metric ton of IDP snaps.

Nothing I've seen suggests Jewell lost the starting gig. 

DAL is intriguing. Parsons seems too good to not play. Neal is the new coach's guy. LVE has said the right things (about being excited with the scheme since they'll all play) but that doesn't bode well when dissected. Crazy to thing that Jaylon would get that big contract and be dumped half way through it but that seems likely for next season.

Anzalone... yep, really. For as long as he can stay out of the tub and hold off Barnes. Let's call the over/under 4 games. 

Seattle is giving me the same headaches. I've got a few of their DEs in a contract league b/c they are cheap but still don't have any idea where Collier/Ryder/Taylor/Dunlap fit together. I'm taking a wild guess that Dunlap will be limited on snaps due to his age but couldn't tell you how much of a leash to expect on Collier, or which guys will be starters vs. rotation. If forced to rank them, I'd go with (a very arbitrary) Collier --> Hyder --> Dunlap --> Taylor based on the assumption that draft capitol keeps Collier in the hunt, performance keeps Hyder on the field, and Dunlap plays a situational role. 

 
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I used DLF's rankings as a starting point, they go 86 deep.

And I'm still adding names to the bottom of the list. Neal, Mack Wilson, Nasirildeen, Damien Wilson, 

Even in a deep IDP league, you'll probably be able to really cobble together a decent free agent LB group by paying attention early, and moving quick on guys.  There's no way all these guys can be rostered. 

 
Looks like Nicholas Morrow from LV injured his foot and will be sidelined quite a while.  Nick Kwiatkoski and Littleton may be get an extra bump for early season games.  Maybe Littleton can get back on track.  

 
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