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2023 FBG Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

Using a combination of monkey math, astrology, and McDaniel's play sheet, I estimated the cut line in week 9 to be 121.4. Using those same assumptions, here are the projections for the $100 teams advancing to week 10.

ZWK​
162.24​
Flyjetz​
148.93​
TrishaRitasBoys​
142.94​
Entry 100158​
141.15​
ShaunZ​
138.33​
HULK​
135.77​
P U P P I E S​
134.63​
QuizGuy66​
132.33​
JaBoo​
132.32​
The Mongol Horde​
131.6​
Entry 109712​
130.53​
fear the bald​
129.62​
FlyEagle​
125.51​
Big Parms Cats​
125.46​
Entry 106765​
123.83​
Oh hey guys!

:crying:
 
Using a combination of monkey math, astrology, and McDaniel's play sheet, I estimated the cut line in week 9 to be 121.4. Using those same assumptions, here are the projections for the $100 teams advancing to week 10.

ZWK​
162.24​
Flyjetz​
148.93​
TrishaRitasBoys​
142.94​
Entry 100158​
141.15​
ShaunZ​
138.33​
HULK​
135.77​
P U P P I E S​
134.63​
QuizGuy66​
132.33​
JaBoo​
132.32​
The Mongol Horde​
131.6​
Entry 109712​
130.53​
fear the bald​
129.62​
FlyEagle​
125.51​
Big Parms Cats​
125.46​
Entry 106765​
123.83​
Oh hey guys!

:crying:
Poor guy! You got left out like a red-headed stepchild.
 
Some bad news about the contest's most common player.

Darren Waller (hamstring) will not play in Week 9 against the Raiders.
Head coach Brian Daboll said Waller won’t be active for Week 9 and that some time on injured reserve could be a possibility. Waller said on Wednesday that “it may be a little bit” when speaking on how long he could be out, which paves the way for Daniel Bellinger to start for the foreseeable future. Bellinger will be hard to trust as anything more than a touchdown dependent TE2 in fantasy this week.
 
Using a combination of monkey math, astrology, and McDaniel's play sheet, I estimated the cut line in week 9 to be 121.4. Using those same assumptions, here are the projections for the $100 teams advancing to week 10.

ZWK​
162.24​
Flyjetz​
148.93​
TrishaRitasBoys​
142.94​
Entry 100158​
141.15​
ShaunZ​
138.33​
HULK​
135.77​
P U P P I E S​
134.63​
QuizGuy66​
132.33​
JaBoo​
132.32​
The Mongol Horde​
131.6​
Entry 109712​
130.53​
fear the bald​
129.62​
FlyEagle​
125.51​
Big Parms Cats​
125.46​
Entry 106765​
123.83​
Oh hey guys!

:crying:
Poor guy! You got left out like a red-headed stepchild.
He and I will start our own contest
 
Dead money this week: Chubb (30), K. Herbert (13), K. Williams (4), Ridley (21), London (18), LaPorta (9), McManus (4)=$99. That leaves:

QB: Mahomes, Pickett
RB: Kamara, Pierce
WR: D. Johnson, Dotson, Flowers, Wilson
TE: Kincaid, Ferguson, Musgrave
K: Dicker, Fairbaim
D: Carolina, Chargers

So, I have exactly 2 scores among my WRs and TEs to throw out. Everyone else will need to give me good scores. Last week I had two kickers over 17 points--I need at least one to do something similar this week. It would also be a great week for one of my Ds to score a couple TDs, please.

FBG projections have me at 126 points for the week. :gulp:
Update:

Bad news: starting to look like Pierce won't play either, meaning I'm down to 1 RB.
Good news: It's Pierce, so it probably won't hurt my score much.
 
Teams who have the most $$$ on players who are healthy, scoring points regularly, and already past their bye week:

$152 Rooster #102908
$149 JuliusCaesar
$149 Heckdog
$141 DepthCharts
$140 DetroitRugger
$139 Rooster #104950
$138 JWB
$138 Rooster #108386

Average is $63, median $61. I'm at $119.
 
Week 8 results (no byes)... dead money correlation is there but not quite as strong as I expected it might be, the last row anomaly I'll chalk up to small sample size.

Dead $
# Roosters
# Survived
Survival Rate
$0​
732​
542​
74%​
$3-8​
102​
71​
70%​
$12-20​
826​
615​
74%​
$21-30​
489​
319​
65%​
$31-40​
347​
231​
67%​
$41-50​
266​
168​
63%​
$51-75​
199​
126​
63%​
$77+​
20​
15​
75%​
 
Using a combination of monkey math, astrology, and McDaniel's play sheet, I estimated the cut line in week 9 to be 121.4. Using those same assumptions, here are the projections for the $100 teams advancing to week 10.

ZWK​
162.24​
Flyjetz​
148.93​
TrishaRitasBoys​
142.94​
Entry 100158​
141.15​
ShaunZ​
138.33​
HULK​
135.77​
P U P P I E S​
134.63​
QuizGuy66​
132.33​
JaBoo​
132.32​
The Mongol Horde​
131.6​
Entry 109712​
130.53​
fear the bald​
129.62​
FlyEagle​
125.51​
Big Parms Cats​
125.46​
Entry 106765​
123.83​
Oh hey guys!

:crying:
Poor guy! You got left out like a red-headed stepchild.
He and I will start our own contest
Sweet! I've already started spreadsheet analysis. :nerd:
 
Any regulars counting on anyone tonight?
With two of my top scorers sitting this week, I hope to get something out of Pickens tonight, and to a lesser extent, Pickett. I'm probably in trouble if Pickens doesn't put up a good numer tonight. But I mainly just hope to see some good football, without a bunch of stupid calls from refs like in last week's Steeler's - Jaguars game.
 
Dead money this week: Chubb (30), K. Herbert (13), K. Williams (4), Ridley (21), London (18), LaPorta (9), McManus (4)=$99. That leaves:

QB: Mahomes, Pickett
RB: Kamara, Pierce
WR: D. Johnson, Dotson, Flowers, Wilson
TE: Kincaid, Ferguson, Musgrave
K: Dicker, Fairbaim
D: Carolina, Chargers

So, I have exactly 2 scores among my WRs and TEs to throw out. Everyone else will need to give me good scores. Last week I had two kickers over 17 points--I need at least one to do something similar this week. It would also be a great week for one of my Ds to score a couple TDs, please.

FBG projections have me at 126 points for the week. :gulp:
Update:

Bad news: starting to look like Pierce won't play either, meaning I'm down to 1 RB.
Good news: It's Pierce, so it probably won't hurt my score much.

No Pierce bumps me up to $78 in dead money this week (assuming no Stafford). Rooting hard for Pickens tonight.
 
Would appreciate Pickett setting a nice QB floor for me while leading the Steelers to a loss. So far so good on the latter. As for the former...3.9 ain't cutting it

-QG
 
Some bad news about the contest's most common player.

Darren Waller (hamstring) will not play in Week 9 against the Raiders.
Head coach Brian Daboll said Waller won’t be active for Week 9 and that some time on injured reserve could be a possibility. Waller said on Wednesday that “it may be a little bit” when speaking on how long he could be out, which paves the way for Daniel Bellinger to start for the foreseeable future. Bellinger will be hard to trust as anything more than a touchdown dependent TE2 in fantasy this week.
No Waller or Ertz. We're riding with Big D Durham Smythe.
 
Some bad news about the contest's most common player.

Darren Waller (hamstring) will not play in Week 9 against the Raiders.
Head coach Brian Daboll said Waller won’t be active for Week 9 and that some time on injured reserve could be a possibility. Waller said on Wednesday that “it may be a little bit” when speaking on how long he could be out, which paves the way for Daniel Bellinger to start for the foreseeable future. Bellinger will be hard to trust as anything more than a touchdown dependent TE2 in fantasy this week.
No Waller or Ertz. We're riding with Big D Durham Smythe.
I wasted $3 on Noah Gray thinking Travis Kelce was gonna miss time
 
Well that was horrible (Pickens). On the bright side, maybe this is the week Jaylen Warren finally scores for me.
 
Pittsburgh Steelers
399/19.1% - RB Jaylen Warren - 12.80
366/17.5% - WR George Pickens - 1.90
352/16.9% - QB Kenny Pickett - 13.90
166/8.0% - WR Diontae Johnson - 22.00
134/6.4% - PK Chris Boswell - 8.00
131/6.3% - TD Pittsburgh Steelers - 6.00
41/2.0% - WR Allen Robinson - 2.00
34/1.6% - TE Pat Freiermuth - OUT
20/1.0% - RB Najee Harris - 14.60
13/0.6% - TE Darnell Washington - 2.20

Tennessee Titans
173/8.3% - RB Tyjae Spears - 4.20
139/6.7% - TD Tennessee Titans - 0.00
89/4.3% - WR DeAndre Hopkins - 10.50
49/2.3% - Chigoziem Okonkwo - 7.30
49/2.3% - QB Ryan Tannehill - OUT
30/1.4% - WR Treylon Burks - 4.80
25/1.2% - RB Derrick Henry - 17.70
7/0.3% - WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - 3.30
5/0.2% - QB Will Levis - 12.30
 
As expected, not enough commonality to bring the cut above ZERO. The 128 folks with the Pickett/Pickens combo cannot be happy. :crying:
 
As expected, not enough commonality to bring the cut above ZERO. The 128 folks with the Pickett/Pickens combo cannot be happy. :crying:

It's like watching a train wreck in slow motion. I have Pickett/Pickens/Warren. If I toss Pickens, the Pickett/Warren average is 13.5. Extrapolating that to 8 positions is 108, plus 6 from Seattle's defense and 11 from best of 3 kickers is 125. But three of those outputs need to come from Zeke Elliott, Tank Dell and Nick Conklin....or I need plus performance(s) from Garrett Wilson, Gabe Davis or Jahon Dotson, each of whom is a once every 2 or 3 weeks contributor.

The fat lady is warming up....
 
More sub-par officiating in last night's game. Replays on the Joey Porter Jr holding call clearly show that the flag should have been picked up. And they missed a blantant holding call on the last Tennessee drive when TJ Watt was blatantly held while rushing the QB... yet, no flag! That last Tennessee drive should have been stalled right there if the holding call had been made. This is getting worse instead of better. If anyone saw the piece by Gene Saratore after last week's Steelers-Jaguars game, pointing out all the terrible calls, you'll see what I'm talking about.

 
Going to be tough to hang on this week. I have been riding the coat tails of ARSB and LaPorta (used both every week except ARSB's missed game) who are both on bye. Also lose DET Def and Tank Bigsby (only roster spot never used so no big loss there). Although only 4 spots on bye, I am a Chubb survivor and have a 19 man roster. I feel this is the end of the line, unless I get some unexpected magic.
Well, the 2/-1/0 stat line from Pickens isn't going to help my cause either. There's always next year...
 
13.90 from Pickett was not the backup floor I was looking for. And just as bad they won the game :mad:

-QG
On the other hand, us Diontae Johnson owners enjoyed everything about the game, not to mention that Pickett at least gave us more than Mahomes did last week.
 
Ouch
With Mike Williams & Bourne out, and Aiyuk on a bye. I'm left with Godwin, Pickens, Van Jefferson.
Not looking good.
 
Now that Waller and Pierce are confirmed out, I'm down to a single QB (Tua), RB (Kamara), TE (Hill) and K (Zuerlein) this week.

QB Jared Goff - $14
RB Nick Chubb - $30
RB Dameon Pierce - $21
RB Khalil Herbert - $13
RB Tank Bigsby - $9
RB Chris Evans - $3
WR Courtland Sutton - $12
TE Darren Waller - $17
TE Sam LaPorta - $9
PK Brandon McManus - $4

That's $132 in dead money. It's been a fun ride, but it ends here. So long and thanks for all the fish!
 
More sub-par officiating in last night's game. Replays on the Joey Porter Jr holding call clearly show that the flag should have been picked up. And they missed a blantant holding call on the last Tennessee drive when TJ Watt was blatantly held while rushing the QB... yet, no flag! That last Tennessee drive should have been stalled right there if the holding call had been made. This is getting worse instead of better. If anyone saw the piece by Gene Saratore after last week's Steelers-Jaguars game, pointing out all the terrible calls, you'll see what I'm talking about.

The Steelers will be allowed to complain about officiating after 100 years have passed since Super Bowl XLIII.
 
How do you see past week‘s performances for my team and cut lines? Thought I could see that in the past but only see the current week now. Somehow hanging on despite having Rodgers, Richardson, Dobbins and missed time from Montgomery.
 
How do you see past week‘s performances for my team and cut lines? Thought I could see that in the past but only see the current week now. Somehow hanging on despite having Rodgers, Richardson, Dobbins and missed time from Montgomery.

I made a website where you can see your team's full history, just need to enter your team ID - https://tensionmask.com/fbgcontest
 
Now that Waller and Pierce are confirmed out, I'm down to a single QB (Tua), RB (Kamara), TE (Hill) and K (Zuerlein) this week.

QB Jared Goff - $14
RB Nick Chubb - $30
RB Dameon Pierce - $21
RB Khalil Herbert - $13
RB Tank Bigsby - $9
RB Chris Evans - $3
WR Courtland Sutton - $12
TE Darren Waller - $17
TE Sam LaPorta - $9
PK Brandon McManus - $4

That's $132 in dead money. It's been a fun ride, but it ends here. So long and thanks for all the fish!

~12% of teams have more dead money than you this week. I admit it's pretty unfavorable starting point, but it's not out of the realm of possibility, especially with all of the guys you mentioned having the potential for strong scores. Hill is going to be extra motivated going against KC (and keeping ahead of 2k yard pace), which could help lead to a monster game for Tua.
 
How do you see past week‘s performances for my team and cut lines? Thought I could see that in the past but only see the current week now. Somehow hanging on despite having Rodgers, Richardson, Dobbins and missed time from Montgomery.

I made a website where you can see your team's full history, just need to enter your team ID - https://tensionmask.com/fbgcontest
Nice site!

Only player unused on my team is Pickett, but that changes next week with Jalen on bye. If I make it past this week,
 
Now that Waller and Pierce are confirmed out, I'm down to a single QB (Tua), RB (Kamara), TE (Hill) and K (Zuerlein) this week.

QB Jared Goff - $14
RB Nick Chubb - $30
RB Dameon Pierce - $21
RB Khalil Herbert - $13
RB Tank Bigsby - $9
RB Chris Evans - $3
WR Courtland Sutton - $12
TE Darren Waller - $17
TE Sam LaPorta - $9
PK Brandon McManus - $4

That's $132 in dead money. It's been a fun ride, but it ends here. So long and thanks for all the fish!

~12% of teams have more dead money than you this week. I admit it's pretty unfavorable starting point, but it's not out of the realm of possibility, especially with all of the guys you mentioned having the potential for strong scores. Hill is going to be extra motivated going against KC (and keeping ahead of 2k yard pace), which could help lead to a monster game for Tua.
Pretty sure he meant Taysom Hill and Not Tyreek!!
 
Been a crazy year. Only started playing in this contest a few year ago, but after a couple weeks i felt like this was my worst team and yet here I am. Survived A week with no QBs and like, everyone else, lots of Injuries and underperformance. Kicker and D only reason I’m still alive. $92 in dead money this week and spears 4 points likely counting I think I’m toast. I don’t post often but I enjoy all the analysis and chatter on this board. Cheers!

QB Daniel Jones - $160.00
QB Jordan Love - $90.00
RB Nick Chubb - $300.00
RB Jahmyr Gibbs - $250.00
RB Alvin Kamara - $150.00
RB Tyjae Spears - $94.20
RB Kenneth Gainwell - $80.00
RB Zack Moss - $40.00
WR Ja'Marr Chase - $360.00
WR Jahan Dotson - $140.00
WR Courtland Sutton - $120.00
WR Gabe Davis - $120.00
WR Joshua Palmer - $60.00
WR Darius Slayton - $50.00
TE Darren Waller - $170.00
TE Taysom Hill - $80.00
TE Luke Musgrave - $60.00
PK Brandon McManus - $40.00
PK Cameron Dicker - $40.00
TD Jacksonville Jaguars - $40.00
TD Atlanta Falcons - $30.00
TD Houston Texans - $30.00
 
More sub-par officiating in last night's game. Replays on the Joey Porter Jr holding call clearly show that the flag should have been picked up. And they missed a blantant holding call on the last Tennessee drive when TJ Watt was blatantly held while rushing the QB... yet, no flag! That last Tennessee drive should have been stalled right there if the holding call had been made. This is getting worse instead of better. If anyone saw the piece by Gene Saratore after last week's Steelers-Jaguars game, pointing out all the terrible calls, you'll see what I'm talking about.

The Steelers will be allowed to complain about officiating after 100 years have passed since Super Bowl XLIII.

More sub-par officiating in last night's game. Replays on the Joey Porter Jr holding call clearly show that the flag should have been picked up. And they missed a blantant holding call on the last Tennessee drive when TJ Watt was blatantly held while rushing the QB... yet, no flag! That last Tennessee drive should have been stalled right there if the holding call had been made. This is getting worse instead of better. If anyone saw the piece by Gene Saratore after last week's Steelers-Jaguars game, pointing out all the terrible calls, you'll see what I'm talking about.

The Steelers will be allowed to complain about officiating after 100 years have passed since Super Bowl XLIII.
Which is about 100 years before the losers stop crying about it.
 
Here's some trivia about the Puppies team name, for your entertainment (or laughs) ....

Sometimes I wonder what some of you folks might think of my silly team name and my stuffed animals team logo, so this morning I thought I might share a little background on it. For many years, I played fantasy football with a group of friends and coworkers, and they all tried to come up with the toughest sounding team names they could imagine... like Bone-Crushers, Destroyers, Annihilators, and Legion of Doom, just to name a few. So as a joke, I named my team "The Puppies", with the team slogan "We only LOOK cute!". And to carry the joke a little further (and being a professional photographer) I set up some portrait ighting and arranged the stuffed animals to shoot the photo that you see on the left, just as I would shoot a portrait shot for a client. The team name just stuck, and I never changed it.

In 2011, I was diagnosed with Lymphoma and had to endure nearly a year of chemo and radiation. Out of sheer boredom, and trying to keep my mind focused on something other than cancer treatment, I joined Footballguys and played in the Subscriber Contest for the first time. I just used the same team name and photo because I alread had it. In my boredom I immersed myself in football and soaked up as much information as I could during training camp, and I assembled my first ever team in the contest. Due to a whole lot of luck, or whatever you want to call it, I placed 4th that year and won $1,500, plus a 2-year subscription, and a $350 team in the following year's big money contest. I didn't do very well in that game, but it was a fun-filled learning experience. I give Footballguys the credit for making what I call "the year from hell" a little more bearable.

I have enjoyed the subscriber contest each year ever since, although I have never again made the playoffs after that first year. I think week 11 (last year) was the longest I made it since 2011. Like probalby most everyone else here, I really enjoy the challenge of crunching numbers and searching for value players during the pre-season, and trying my best to come up with a winning team. Unfortunately I think this will likely be my last week this year as the prospects for advancing to week 10 look pretty grim right now.

But win or lose this has been a lot of fun again this year, and I especially enjoy reading everyone's comments in the forum.
Good luck to everyone this weekend!
 
Preliminary estimate based on injuries/backups/byes as known of today is that 30% of roosters will be playing with $78+ dead money. Median is $63 (mean is $64). 10% of roosters will have $100+ dead money.

I'm currently looking at $51 dead money (McCaffrey + Waller) which puts me at the 67th percentile in terms of "least dead money this week", which seems a pretty decent place to start the week.

----

Updating this, I added one more category of Dead Money, which are guys who are "barely" playing... I guess technically not dead money, but mostly dead money. ("I'm not dead yet!" "Meh, you will be soon..."). These are guys who are putting up minimal points at non-K/D positions and haven't shown any signs of late that they have a chance to meaningfully contribute to a team's score in week 9.

Some of the wider-owned examples include Tank Bigsby, Van Jefferson, Juwan Johnson, Dalvin Cook, my own Isaiah Hodgins, and Elijah Mitchell. Average is $13 per team in this category.

Updated to include these guys 30% of roosters will be playing with $91+ (mostly) dead money. Median is $76 (mean is $77). 10% of roosters will have $114+ (mostly) dead money. I'm at $57, which is 74th percentile for "least dead money this week". Feeling good about that.
Not as good as jonbruin (#109202) should be feeling. As far as I can tell, they are the only surviving team in the contest with $0 in dead money this week. And that's with a very conservative view of dead money: I'm not counting guys on practice squads or backup QBs as dead or "barely scoring" guys as dead, for instance.
 
Now that Waller and Pierce are confirmed out, I'm down to a single QB (Tua), RB (Kamara), TE (Hill) and K (Zuerlein) this week.

QB Jared Goff - $14
RB Nick Chubb - $30
RB Dameon Pierce - $21
RB Khalil Herbert - $13
RB Tank Bigsby - $9
RB Chris Evans - $3
WR Courtland Sutton - $12
TE Darren Waller - $17
TE Sam LaPorta - $9
PK Brandon McManus - $4

That's $132 in dead money. It's been a fun ride, but it ends here. So long and thanks for all the fish!

~12% of teams have more dead money than you this week. I admit it's pretty unfavorable starting point, but it's not out of the realm of possibility, especially with all of the guys you mentioned having the potential for strong scores. Hill is going to be extra motivated going against KC (and keeping ahead of 2k yard pace), which could help lead to a monster game for Tua.
Pretty sure he meant Taysom Hill and Not Tyreek!!
I know, but was pointing out the potential for Tua to put up a huge game (by throwing the ball to Tyreek). He'd only get Tua points not Tyreek points, but it could still be enough to keep him in the game.
 

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