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2023 Rank the Draft Slots - 12tm PPR (1 Viewer)

Hurl Bruce

Footballguy
Some of our leagues give managers the option to choose their draft slot as part of the process. How do you rank picks 1-12? I know that assigning point values shows that the first picks is typically the best pick, but I think there is a big grouping of similar talents at the top of the round.

For me, I think I would go with:

  1. Pick 7 - I expect one of Kupp, Hill, or Kelce to be here, and I'd be pleased with any one of those.
  2. Pick 6 - Same as above.
  3. Pick 8 -Throw in Bijan, who could jump in front of one of the 3 above and push them to 8.
  4. Pick 1 - Jefferson
  5. Pick 3 - Chase/CMC
  6. Pick 5 - To Kelce or not to Kelce
  7. Pick 4 - Not sure about injury status, but this would most likely be a Kupp vs Hill decision.
  8. Pick 2 - Chase
  9. Pick 11 - Get to potentially pair Chubb/Barkley with AJB, Adams, or ARSB
  10. Pick 12 - Same as 11 but don't get preferred RB
  11. Pick 9 - Diggs/Lamb/Bijan
  12. Pick 10 - Same as 9
What do you think?
 
I have always loved picking first. It gives me who I want and then come back with solid picks at 24 and 25.

I've historically always preferred picking towards the back of the first round and getting 2 of my top ~12 guys, but this year I opted to take the 1st overall. We'll see how it goes.

(Mine's a keep-1 league so a couple of players who would normally go in the 1st round are already kept.)
 
Some of our leagues give managers the option to choose their draft slot as part of the process. How do you rank picks 1-12? I know that assigning point values shows that the first picks is typically the best pick, but I think there is a big grouping of similar talents at the top of the round.

For me, I think I would go with:

  1. Pick 7 - I expect one of Kupp, Hill, or Kelce to be here, and I'd be pleased with any one of those.
  2. Pick 6 - Same as above.
  3. Pick 8 -Throw in Bijan, who could jump in front of one of the 3 above and push them to 8.
  4. Pick 1 - Jefferson
  5. Pick 3 - Chase/CMC
  6. Pick 5 - To Kelce or not to Kelce
  7. Pick 4 - Not sure about injury status, but this would most likely be a Kupp vs Hill decision.
  8. Pick 2 - Chase
  9. Pick 11 - Get to potentially pair Chubb/Barkley with AJB, Adams, or ARSB
  10. Pick 12 - Same as 11 but don't get preferred RB
  11. Pick 9 - Diggs/Lamb/Bijan
  12. Pick 10 - Same as 9
What do you think?
I think I see things basically the same way. I put Kupp very slightly ahead of Chase, so that makes a top pick essentially a waste. I'd be fine with Kelce and Hill as well. The only KDS league I'm doing is a 3rd round reversal, which I think makes a high pick an especially poor move this year.

Even in straight up snake drafts, I think I'd tier out the first round and prioritize the last of my first tier while also looking ahead to see what might fall in the 2nd/3rd round. For a lot of people, that might be 1. Or it might be 3 in a SF league. I feel like most years in baseball/football drafts that puts you somewhere between 5 and 8. That more or less seems like what you've done.

For basically no reason at all, I hate drafting at the turn. I think it's kind of fun to game plan, say if I have the 9 pick, what the dudes at 10-11-12 are going to do. But to each their own on that. I pretty much will always put 1 and 12 at the end of my KDS queue.
 
Some of our leagues give managers the option to choose their draft slot as part of the process. How do you rank picks 1-12? I know that assigning point values shows that the first picks is typically the best pick, but I think there is a big grouping of similar talents at the top of the round.

For me, I think I would go with:

  1. Pick 7 - I expect one of Kupp, Hill, or Kelce to be here, and I'd be pleased with any one of those.
  2. Pick 6 - Same as above.
  3. Pick 8 -Throw in Bijan, who could jump in front of one of the 3 above and push them to 8.
  4. Pick 1 - Jefferson
  5. Pick 3 - Chase/CMC
  6. Pick 5 - To Kelce or not to Kelce
  7. Pick 4 - Not sure about injury status, but this would most likely be a Kupp vs Hill decision.
  8. Pick 2 - Chase
  9. Pick 11 - Get to potentially pair Chubb/Barkley with AJB, Adams, or ARSB
  10. Pick 12 - Same as 11 but don't get preferred RB
  11. Pick 9 - Diggs/Lamb/Bijan
  12. Pick 10 - Same as 9
What do you think?
If it's not 3rr then almost always take the higher spot.

I see no reason why you'd have 7 ranked ahead of 1. Sure you get a hill at 7, but jj is in my eyes, a much much better pick. A lot of people argue that their 2nd round pick would be better (clearly it would) but the 3rd round pick is much better for pick 1.

Don't get too cute. 7 could be fun until someone goes down before your draft and you're stuck missing out on your "top 7".
 
I got the 10 hole but swapped with the owner who had #2. He was superstitious as he won from the 10 hole last year. Though the only reason he won is because his opponent benched Davante Adams. Another owner traded up to #1. I think he'll take McCaffrey. Leaves my choice of Jefferson, Chase, Ekeler, etc. We just switched to 1/2 point PPR. I like the OP's ideas of roster building with each slot
 
I got the 10 hole but swapped with the owner who had #2. He was superstitious as he won from the 10 hole last year. Though the only reason he won is because his opponent benched Davante Adams. Another owner traded up to #1. I think he'll take McCaffrey. Leaves my choice of Jefferson, Chase, Ekeler, etc. We just switched to 1/2 point PPR. I like the OP's ideas of roster building with each slot
Jefferson is the easy choice if you believe in the power of the group. He is the consensus 1.01 and has about the safest floor possible with a really good ceiling. I think you made the right call on swapping 10 for 2. That 3rd round pick is where you will really appreciate the move.
 
The tenth pick sucks this year. Trust me. I keep getting sniped in a draft I'm doing and there always seems to be a tier break between the players I'm getting sniped on. Much better to have the two. I mean, our draft went Jefferson, Ekeler, Chase, Kelce, Hill, Mcaffrey, Bijan, Kupp, Barkley and I got stuck with Diggs. Then on the turn Chubb was gone, as was Taylor, and I selected Pollard (over A.J. Brown, which might prove to be a big mistake). The other rounds don't get much better, IMO. I've been sniped at least three times on the odds and twice on the evens.

Just a terrible draft I'm having, and I felt prepared.

Though redraft isn't my game anymore, and my drafting has suffered ever since I took up dynasty.
 
The tenth pick sucks this year. Trust me. I keep getting sniped in a draft I'm doing and there always seems to be a tier break between the players I'm getting sniped on. Much better to have the two. I mean, our draft went Jefferson, Ekeler, Chase, Kelce, Hill, Mcaffrey, Bijan, Kupp, Barkley and I got stuck with Diggs. Then on the turn Chubb was gone, as was Taylor, and I selected Pollard (over A.J. Brown, which might prove to be a big mistake). The other rounds don't get much better, IMO. I've been sniped at least three times on the odds and twice on the evens.

Just a terrible draft I'm having, and I felt prepared.

Though redraft isn't my game anymore, and my drafting has suffered ever since I took up dynasty.
You might be selling yourself short there. Diggs is a great pick. Before Allen hurt his elbow last year, Diggs was as good as any WR not named Kupp. And Pollard is certainly riskier than Brown but he has a much higher potential value.
 
I have 7th as the worst spot in te premium. There is a clear top 6 and a real tier break. I pulled 7th in FFPC.
Interesting, I got it in TE premium too. Curious which of the clear top 7 this year you don't like.
Jefferson, Chase, CMC, Kelce, Kupp, and Hill are a clear tier above the rest. Who are you putting in there? Ekler is probably consensus 7. I expect a drop in targets in the new offense.
 
I have 7th as the worst spot in te premium. There is a clear top 6 and a real tier break. I pulled 7th in FFPC.
Interesting, I got it in TE premium too. Curious which of the clear top 7 this year you don't like.
Jefferson, Chase, CMC, Kelce, Kupp, and Hill are a clear tier above the rest. Who are you putting in there? Ekler is probably consensus 7. I expect a drop in targets in the new offense.
Ekeler
I have 7th as the worst spot in te premium. There is a clear top 6 and a real tier break. I pulled 7th in FFPC.
Interesting, I got it in TE premium too. Curious which of the clear top 7 this year you don't like.
Jefferson, Chase, CMC, Kelce, Kupp, and Hill are a clear tier above the rest. Who are you putting in there? Ekler is probably consensus 7. I expect a drop in targets in the new offense.
Ekeler is quite higher than 7 in consensus. His adp is 1.04, and fbg has him ranked above cmc in ppr.

All good if you don't see him in that tier, was just curious who you were leaving out as he's almost always going top 5.

Personally I like him a lot as he was the clear #1 ppr rb last year, and now is on a 1 year deal where he's playing for a big contract, the team might run him into the ground as he's likely gone next year, and the offense should improve. Again if you don't have him that high it's all good, but 7 is a pretty solid spot if you're going by consensus.
 
I have 7th as the worst spot in te premium. There is a clear top 6 and a real tier break. I pulled 7th in FFPC.
Interesting, I got it in TE premium too. Curious which of the clear top 7 this year you don't like.
Jefferson, Chase, CMC, Kelce, Kupp, and Hill are a clear tier above the rest. Who are you putting in there? Ekler is probably consensus 7. I expect a drop in targets in the new offense.
Ekeler
I have 7th as the worst spot in te premium. There is a clear top 6 and a real tier break. I pulled 7th in FFPC.
Interesting, I got it in TE premium too. Curious which of the clear top 7 this year you don't like.
Jefferson, Chase, CMC, Kelce, Kupp, and Hill are a clear tier above the rest. Who are you putting in there? Ekler is probably consensus 7. I expect a drop in targets in the new offense.
Ekeler is quite higher than 7 in consensus. His adp is 1.04, and fbg has him ranked above cmc in ppr.

All good if you don't see him in that tier, was just curious who you were leaving out as he's almost always going top 5.

Personally I like him a lot as he was the clear #1 ppr rb last year, and now is on a 1 year deal where he's playing for a big contract, the team might run him into the ground as he's likely gone next year, and the offense should improve. Again if you don't have him that high it's all good, but 7 is a pretty solid spot if you're going by consensus.
He is adp 7 in FFPC
 
I have 7th as the worst spot in te premium. There is a clear top 6 and a real tier break. I pulled 7th in FFPC.
Interesting, I got it in TE premium too. Curious which of the clear top 7 this year you don't like.
Jefferson, Chase, CMC, Kelce, Kupp, and Hill are a clear tier above the rest. Who are you putting in there? Ekler is probably consensus 7. I expect a drop in targets in the new offense.
Ekeler
I have 7th as the worst spot in te premium. There is a clear top 6 and a real tier break. I pulled 7th in FFPC.
Interesting, I got it in TE premium too. Curious which of the clear top 7 this year you don't like.
Jefferson, Chase, CMC, Kelce, Kupp, and Hill are a clear tier above the rest. Who are you putting in there? Ekler is probably consensus 7. I expect a drop in targets in the new offense.
Ekeler is quite higher than 7 in consensus. His adp is 1.04, and fbg has him ranked above cmc in ppr.

All good if you don't see him in that tier, was just curious who you were leaving out as he's almost always going top 5.

Personally I like him a lot as he was the clear #1 ppr rb last year, and now is on a 1 year deal where he's playing for a big contract, the team might run him into the ground as he's likely gone next year, and the offense should improve. Again if you don't have him that high it's all good, but 7 is a pretty solid spot if you're going by consensus.
He is adp 7 in FFPC
So there you go, clear top 7.

And even other leagues that use the exact scoring as FFPC, he's usually top 5.

FBG has him ranked 5th Overall with FFPC scoring (RB1)

Again, you can debate that you don't like him, but there's an above 50% chance you're getting Hill/Kupp/Kelce at pick #7. Might be the top draft position to choose in a 3rr league.
 
For basically no reason at all, I hate drafting at the turn. I think it's kind of fun to game plan, say if I have the 9 pick, what the dudes at 10-11-12 are going to do. But to each their own on that. I pretty much will always put 1 and 12 at the end of my KDS queue.
I am the opposite. I hate drafting in the middle. I always have disjointed teams when I draft in the middle because I am always reacting to whatever run is going on. I can never plan picks and it just seems blah. I will always choose to be on an end when given the choice and depending on the year dictates whether I want top end or bottom end.
 
It’s always pick 1.

The benefits of having the 1st pick in at the top of each odd round outweigh settling for a mid round or late round pick. You can take whoever you want at 1. Can be the same exact pick you’d make at 12 if you have the onions. And yes, you’ll sacrifice a little position in round 2 for sure.

I think folks make way too much of “getting value at 1” and “getting a better option in 2nd round”. Again, you can take whoever you want at 1. Wouldn’t you trade a slightly later 2nd for the 1st pick in 9 other rounds and having wrap around pucks moving forward?

Its always #1
 
Each year is different

How much is pick 1 > pick 12 vs. pick 13 > pick 24 vs. pick 25 > pick 36 vs. pick 37 > pick 48

Also comes down to how veteran/knowledgeable you are. And yes, there are no experts. There's a lot of really knowledgeable folks that have been playing this game for years and may know where to turn/look for advantages, but no one is an expert.
 
Its always #1
In a vacuum maybe. What if your 1.01 blows his knee out on preseason or week 1. Now your best player was selected at 2.12

Injuries aside, we'd be fooling ourselves if we could predict what will unfold during the NFL season.

How did Johnathon Taylor owners do last year?

You seem to be conflating the value of having the earliest possible pick with the pitfalls of injury or ADP lock. Those aren’t the same things.

Choosing *anything* other than the earliest pick in the most possible rounds is quite exactly why “we’d be fooling ourselves if we could predict what will unfold in an NFL season”.
 
Or you could wait and pick up these UDFA's...

W.Welker
D.Pearson
P.Holmes
R.Smith
A.Gates
T.Romo
W.Moon
K.Warner

Forget about the Defensive studs I left out.

7th Rounders
----------------------
T. J. Houshmandzadeh


6th Rounders
---------------------
T.Brady
T.Davis
S.Sharpe
 
Some of our leagues give managers the option to choose their draft slot as part of the process. How do you rank picks 1-12? I know that assigning point values shows that the first picks is typically the best pick, but I think there is a big grouping of similar talents at the top of the round.

My redraft league does KDS, so this topic is near and dear to me.

To your preferred order, my comments in-line:
For me, I think I would go with:

  1. Pick 7 - I expect one of Kupp, Hill, or Kelce to be here, and I'd be pleased with any one of those.
  2. Pick 6 - Same as above.

Picking in the middle is never my favorite, but I end up with some of my better teams because I get hyper focused.

But there are so many picks between picks, and no short turn. That’s always tough.

It’s also the slotting you have to be the most flexible and watch for value sliding to you. Your job at 6-7 is “the stopper”.

  1. Pick 8 -Throw in Bijan, who could jump in front of one of the 3 above and push them to 8.
At 8 I’m hoping Diggs falls to me. I’d rather go with a stud WR, especially with several very good RB (or WR) coming back to me at 2.05

Like 6-7, 8 is one of my bottom 3 preferences.

  1. Pick 1 - Jefferson
I opt for pick 1 if I draw 1. It’s JJ and everyone else, so gimme JJ. It’s a long turn every time, but back to back picks means never getting snaked at the turn.

  1. Pick 3 - Chase/CMC
This is my 3rd preference if 1-2 are gone. Guaranteed Chase/CMC, then you get to snipe before every even turn on the way back.
  1. Pick 5 - To Kelce or not to Kelce
5 is tough this year. I’m Kelce or Diggs. Possibility Eke falls.
  1. Pick 4 - Not sure about injury status, but this would most likely be a Kupp vs Hill decision.
Kupp or Hill. This year I might opt for 12 over 4. Let someone else make this decision, while I grab ARSB & AJB at the turn. Or any other combo of WR/RB worthy of the capital.
  1. Pick 2 - Chase
Yep, I’m with you here
  1. Pick 11 - Get to potentially pair Chubb/Barkley with AJB, Adams, or ARSB
See: pick 12. This is my 5th preference.
  1. Pick 12 - Same as 11 but don't get preferred RB
I commented on 12 above.
  1. Pick 9 - Diggs/Lamb/Bijan
Close to the 6-7-8 above. I prefer pick 9 to those, but that’s about it.
  1. Pick 10 - Same as 9
10 over 9 to get closer to the turn. Shorter turns mean greater predictability. You can’t always guess who your leaguemates will take, but the fewer the number of picks, the more likely you are to be able to take calculated risks when you have 2 players you’re trying to decide between.

At 10 it’s 4 players. At 9 it’s 6. At 8 it’s 8. Those extra 2 picks could be a tier drop.

What do you think?
Overall I’m
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
1.12
1.11
1.10
1.09
1.05
1.08
1.07
1.06
 
I like 1.07 and selected that spot in a 12-team redraft w/ no TE premium. I figure there's 7 players in the first two tiers, so I'm getting one of those 7 and my 2nd rounder is still getting me a quality stud.
 
I usually mock my first 3 rounds and look to see where the tiers change in round 2. Right now I think the uncertainty/production levels change at 2.06 to 2.07. So for this year I want pick 1.07 to 1.09.

I also look at round 3 and I think there are red flags early in that round as people are drafting out of need.
 
It occurred to me that 3RR can make a significant impact to this ranking of draft slots.

In that light I probably change it to
1
2
12
11
10
9
3
4
6
7
8

Picking in the middle is never my favorite, but I end up with some of my better teams because I get hyper focused.

But there are so many picks between picks, and no short turn. That’s always tough.

It’s also the slotting you have to be the most flexible and watch for value sliding to you. Your job at 6-7 is “the stopper”.
Naturally in my high stakes league NFC last night I landed 6.
:doh:

I was right about flexibility - I ended up going RB-RB when Eke & Henry both fell past ADP, drafting like it’s 1998.

lol
 
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It occurred to me that 3RR can make a significant impact to this ranking of draft slots.
I still don't get the point of 3RR. I think it isn't necessary. I get the idea that if everyone drafted the absolutely perfect pick every time that this balances the advantage of the top of the draft however in real life that will never happen. I think it swings the advantage to late picks too much.
 
It occurred to me that 3RR can make a significant impact to this ranking of draft slots.
I still don't get the point of 3RR. I think it isn't necessary. I get the idea that if everyone drafted the absolutely perfect pick every time that this balances the advantage of the top of the draft however in real life that will never happen. I think it swings the advantage to late picks too much.
I agree. I do a couple of NFFC leagues every year & they have KDS+3RR

12-13-25 > 1-24-36

In that format I always hope for 1-2 (JJ -> Chase) but if I miss I want 12, 11, 10, 9 for the advantage that the 3RR gives those lower picking teams.

I don’t love it though.
 
In my league that started doing 3RR last year, the top couple picks were complaining. So I asked them... Even with 3RR would you trade out of your pick right now for any other pick on the board? To up the ante, I even offered my slot (#6) to both of them - both said no, and their complaints stopped in their tracks. Even with 3RR, the top of the order is still generally more valued. And without 3RR it's insanely overvalued, especially compared to the back end.
 
It occurred to me that 3RR can make a significant impact to this ranking of draft slots.
I still don't get the point of 3RR. I think it isn't necessary. I get the idea that if everyone drafted the absolutely perfect pick every time that this balances the advantage of the top of the draft however in real life that will never happen. I think it swings the advantage to late picks too much.
My main redraft adopted 3RR in the mid '00s and this year it looks like we're getting rid of it. Made more sense in the stud RB era when you got a huge leg up just from having a Faulk or LT2 type.

My preference, of course, is auction, but this group will never go for that.
 
Made more sense in the stud RB era when you got a huge leg up just from having a Faulk or LT2 type.
I don't think anything could take away the advantage that LT, Faulk. Holmes, Larry Johnson, Terrell Davis and Alexander gave you during their heydays. Seems like there was one stud that was head and shoulders above everyone else and there wasn't a lot of overlap where two or three of these guys could counteract the others. It seems like they were one at a time and a huge advantage.
 
I've always had good luck drafting in the middle of every round. like 5 in a 10 teamer, 6th in a 12 teamer. makes you focus more, drink less. you really need to have you A game when you pick in the middle You draft guys that you need, but also draft to play keep-away as you watch those after you pick. Oh, teams x,y,z need a RB - I'm taking best available RB here. I've used that theory with good luck. you can't possibly draft well at 5th or 6th high on booze or whatever. you have to do it sober. lol
 
Oh, teams x,y,z need a RB - I'm taking best available RB here.
There are too many teams in between your picks to really do this with any type of purpose. The only time you can really do this effectively is near a turn where there are one or two teams between your two picks. When you are in the middle you shouldn't be concerned about what other teams need because there are just too many variables. You need to flip coins a lot because if you are torn between two guys you will likely only get one of them so better make sure you are right. You also can get sucked into runs where you really can't afford not to pass on continuing the run because you will for sure be left out if you don't.

Being in the middle is just a reactionary position. Very rarely do you get to dictate anything. It's all read and react.
 
Someone proposed switching to 3RR in one of my leagues this year, but it went nowhere. I don't get it at all. I don't think picking early in Rd 1 gives you a huge advantage, or at least not one that outweighs picking at the end of the 2nd. That's the entire point of a snake draft!
 
Drafting in the middle is boring, especially in an in person draft, but I really like my teams drafting from the 6-7-8 range this year, at least in the Underdog drafts I have done this year.

However, a lot of comments about being more sober to draft in the middle. Not seeing the correlation there :shades:
 
Drafting in the middle is boring, especially in an in person draft, but I really like my teams drafting from the 6-7-8 range this year, at least in the Underdog drafts I have done this year.

However, a lot of comments about being more sober to draft in the middle. Not seeing the correlation there :shades:
I'll be drafting from the 7th spot this Saturday.

I'm liking my mocks a lot
 
In my only remaining redraft league, I drew the 10th pick (out of 12) and I’m digging my mocks from there so far (no 3RR. not a TE mandatory league. 1/2 ppr).

Been generally liking taking one of Chubb/Barkeley/Bijan at the 10, and then coming back and grabbing a WR like Adams or Aman-Ra.
Then 3rd/4th round is usually RB/QB (Lamar/Buttow) but sometimes I’ll take a WR there if there’s still one from the next tier I like, but often it feels like the difference between a WR I pick at 3 or 4 is pretty much the same as what I get at my 5/6th round picks.
 
Wow. Everyone's all over the place here.

I have #7 in a 12 team PPR and I love it.

I'm guaranteed one of JJ, Chase, Ekeler, CMC, Kelce, Hill, Kupp. I'm good with that.

In round 2 there's a decent shot one of A ST Brown, G. Wilson, CD, or AJ Brown get back to me at 18. Mocks usually have one of those guys there. Starting TE/WR or WR/WR in PPR would be fine.

I'm also huge on Rhamandre in round 3. Zeke there doesn't bother me. Guy is an emerging stud.
 
Wow. Everyone's all over the place here.

I have #7 in a 12 team PPR and I love it.

I'm guaranteed one of JJ, Chase, Ekeler, CMC, Kelce, Hill, Kupp. I'm good with that.

In round 2 there's a decent shot one of A ST Brown, G. Wilson, CD, or AJ Brown get back to me at 18. Mocks usually have one of those guys there. Starting TE/WR or WR/WR in PPR would be fine.

I'm also huge on Rhamandre in round 3. Zeke there doesn't bother me. Guy is an emerging stud.
At the 7th pick, I drafted Kupp. Got AJB in the 2nd. Rhamandre in the 3rd.

I think a lot of drafts are going to have people afraid to draft Cupp, and he'll be the one left over from the top 7.
 
Wow. Everyone's all over the place here.

I have #7 in a 12 team PPR and I love it.

I'm guaranteed one of JJ, Chase, Ekeler, CMC, Kelce, Hill, Kupp. I'm good with that.

In round 2 there's a decent shot one of A ST Brown, G. Wilson, CD, or AJ Brown get back to me at 18. Mocks usually have one of those guys there. Starting TE/WR or WR/WR in PPR would be fine.

I'm also huge on Rhamandre in round 3. Zeke there doesn't bother me. Guy is an emerging stud.
At the 7th pick, I drafted Kupp. Got AJB in the 2nd. Rhamandre in the 3rd.

I think a lot of drafts are going to have people afraid to draft Cupp, and he'll be the one left over from the top 7.
Yeah and I'm not sure how I feel about it the more I think about it.

I've never owned Kupp. Hoping this isn't the year all the wheels come off.
 

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