30 Days - 30 Teams (1 Viewer)

[John Bender]

My fantasy baseball blog last year was pretty successful. Not in terms of traffic but just in terms of me keeping it updated from February until November.

I've reinvented and retooled the entire thing and cranked it back up today and buried the old one.

Right now doing a feature of each team and their main fantasy players. With some FA players still out there, there are some loose ends but I don't usually start my projections until mid February so this is just a broad view of each teams roster as constituted right now and where the fantasy values is.

Point being: I'd like to get some discussion going and possibly respond to each team's post with discussion generated and this is the best audience for intelligent baseball talk.

So I'll post the teams here each day and feel free to discuss, call me out, tell me I'm wrong, whatever the case my be. This isn't a timschochet exercise in narcissism, it's simply because I love discussing fantasy baseball.

Note: it's formatted a lot more clearly on the blog itself. I'm not trying to drive traffic, I do this more as a self exercise every year, so if you are interested enough to want the link I can post it. Otherwise I'll PM individually to those who express any care.

1-11-2012: Baltimore Orioles

The Cream of The Crop:

Catcher: Matt Wieters: Relatively speaking he’s the cream of the crop when you look at the Orioles offensive roster. His numbers are trending upwards in his 3 seasons in the majors and I expect him to take the next step in 2012 at a position typically designated as a fantasy albatross.

Certainly we expected more from Wieters based on his eye-popping minor league stats, but Wieters has failed to live up to the hype in his first years in the majors. I’m projecting his upswing to continue and when my projections are completed in February will have him coming in somewhere around .275, 26 HRs, 77 RBIs, 82 Runs Scored. In AL-only leagues, he should be one of the first catchers drafted.

Outfielder: Adam Jones: I think Adam is ready to be part of the Top 15 Outfield tier permanently. He’s 26 years old and showed marked improvement in 2011 raising his HR, RBI and SB numbers from 2010. He’s trending upwards and a 30-15 season with a serviceable batting average is possible. One area he is not on the verge of elite is his OPS. Leagues using OPS as a 6th offensive category may want to drop him in their rankings, but he should be one of top outfielders off of the board otherwise (especially in AL-only leagues).

The Next Tier:

First Baseman: Mark Reynolds: Reynolds is just hitting his prime and if you’re looking for power at 3B, he’s a great mid-level option after the top names are gone. 40 HRs and 100 RBIs are absolutely attainable. Unfortunately you may be suffering his batting average hanging around the Mendoza Line as he is still averaging 217 strikeouts per 162 games. If you’ve got a high batting average guy in your pocket by Round 3 that can off-set Reynolds poor AVG, he’s a great grab.

Outfielder: Nick Markakis: Nick never developed into the upper tier outfielder I thought he might but I still have him in the next tier as far as Orioles go because he won’t hurt you in any one category. You can expect an .800 OPS; you can expect a Batting Average at .280-.290 and he still has some nice pop with around a baker’s dozen of homeruns. Even at the age of 28, it doesn’t look like he’ll ever take the leap into elite, but he’s a solid option that’s not going to be a drain on any of your roto categories.

Shortstop: J.J. Hardy: I debated throwing Hardy into my “Cream of the Crop” just for the simple fact that he provided 30 homeruns in 2011 at a position that’s typically devoid of power. That said, I’d like to see him put it together in back to back years. Hardy only slugged 17 homeruns combined in 2009 and 2010 so forgive me for being skeptical of his 2011 power outburst. I think he carries a lot of risk given his career BA of .264 but if you’re strapped for options at SS come Round 7 or 8, Hardy can be your guy if you can deal with his extremely streaky nature and weeks on end of batting .200 with only a homerun or two.

The Rest:

Starting Pitcher: Jeremy Guthrie: He’s probably closer to the bottom of the barrel in mixed leagues but he’s tossed over 200 innings each of the last 3 years and showed some signs of life in 2010 with a 1.16 WHIP and 3.83 ERA. I wouldn’t put my season on his shoulders, but I’d take him as a 5th or 6th option on a fantasy squad and stream according to his matchups.

Outfielder: Nolan Reimold: Fine as a backup plan, but the plate appearances aren’t enough to translate to a season long power helper. Someone to have on your watch list if one of the BAL OFers go down.

Outfielder: Vladimir Guerrero: He’s not the old Vladdy, but he’s still not going to hurt you as a 5th OF option with a respectable batting average. Not useful for much other than keeping your BA above water.

Second Baseman: Brian Roberts: Truthfully, I’m not sure if Roberts belongs in the Bottom of the Barrel or not because he battled concussion symptoms all season long. He was reportedly 2 weeks free of symptoms towards the end of the season and activated off of the DL but at age 34, one would think his main value (speed) will decline. Possible flyer option for those strapped at 2B. Watch him early in the season though. If he struggles, don’t hesitate sending him to waivers.

Second Baseman: Robert Andino: If Roberts continues to suffer from post concussion syndrome, Andino is your starting second basemen in Baltimore and will have no problems snagging a few bags for your fantasy team if you are in need of deep speed options.

Bottom of the Barrel:

Third Baseman: Chris Davis: Davis came out hot in May with a .286 AVG and 3 homeruns trying to rekindle his status as a top prospect but battled injuries the rest of the season. His sports hernia surgery is behind him and he will likely platoon at 3B in 2012. Keep an eye on him but don’t expect much. Draftable in uber-deep AL-only leagues exclusively.

Starting Pitcher: Brian Matusz: What a nightmare season after coming into the year as a top pick breakout candidate. Matusz battled control issues all season long and spent considerable time in AAA. When all was said and done his major league ERA was an obscene 10.69! Stay away until he regains some semblance of command of his pitches.

Relief Pitcher: Kevin Gregg: Despite the 22 saves Gregg had an awful 2011. You can draft him if you need some saves and have latitude to work within your ERA budget, but I wouldn’t count on him to hold the job all season if he struggles again and he is a historical WHIP killer as well when you measure him up to other closers. Pass

Starting Pitcher: Zach Britton and Jake Arietta: Both showed some brief flashes of being serviceable before injuries and inconsistencies caught up. Guys I would watch but not draft outside of deep AL-only contests.

 

[Eephus]

Vladimir Guerrero doesn't have OF eligibility this year. All his 2011 appearances were at DH.

The Jim Johnson to the rotation rumors have died down with the O's signing of starting lefties Chen Wei-yin and Tsuyoshi Wada from the Japanese Leagues. If Johnson stays in the pen, he's a better fantasy and real-life option than Gregg.

Reimold could be rosterable this year.

 

[John Bender]

Vladimir Guerrero doesn't have OF eligibility this year. All his 2011 appearances were at DH.

The Jim Johnson to the rotation rumors have died down with the O's signing of starting lefties Chen Wei-yin and Tsuyoshi Wada from the Japanese Leagues. If Johnson stays in the pen, he's a better fantasy and real-life option than Gregg.

Reimold could be rosterable this year.

You're right. Thanks.

 

[John Bender]

Vladimir Guerrero doesn't have OF eligibility this year. All his 2011 appearances were at DH.

The Jim Johnson to the rotation rumors have died down with the O's signing of starting lefties Chen Wei-yin and Tsuyoshi Wada from the Japanese Leagues. If Johnson stays in the pen, he's a better fantasy and real-life option than Gregg.

Reimold could be rosterable this year.

I see Wei-yin as a definite rotation pitcher, but not so sure on Wada. I'd imagine he'll be battling Hunter for the 5th spot behind Guthrie/Matusz/Simon/Britton too early to tell

 

[Eephus]

Vladimir Guerrero doesn't have OF eligibility this year. All his 2011 appearances were at DH.

The Jim Johnson to the rotation rumors have died down with the O's signing of starting lefties Chen Wei-yin and Tsuyoshi Wada from the Japanese Leagues. If Johnson stays in the pen, he's a better fantasy and real-life option than Gregg.

Reimold could be rosterable this year.

I see Wei-yin as a definite rotation pitcher, but not so sure on Wada. I'd imagine he'll be battling Hunter for the 5th spot behind Guthrie/Matusz/Simon/Britton too early to tell

Wada ya know? I'm just Wei-yin the possibilities

 

[shadyridr]

post the link

 

[Wrigley]

:subscribe:

 

[John Bender]

post the link

I'll post the link once I've completed the 30 Day segment. Want to make sure I have the time and commitment to keep it updated before throwing it out there. I tried to start one 2 years ago, posted it elsewhere and couldn't keep up with it and became a waste. Everything I post is the 30/30 stuff from now until Feb 11th so nothing will be missed.

 

[Michael Brown]

Not sold on Adam Jones yet as I know someone else will salivate over his upside way before me, and I'm staying FAR away from Markakis after the surgery

 

[Brady Marino]

Vladimir Guerrero doesn't have OF eligibility this year. All his 2011 appearances were at DH.

The Jim Johnson to the rotation rumors have died down with the O's signing of starting lefties Chen Wei-yin and Tsuyoshi Wada from the Japanese Leagues. If Johnson stays in the pen, he's a better fantasy and real-life option than Gregg.

Reimold could be rosterable this year.

I see Wei-yin as a definite rotation pitcher, but not so sure on Wada. I'd imagine he'll be battling Hunter for the 5th spot behind Guthrie/Matusz/Simon/Britton too early to tell

Wada ya know? I'm just Wei-yin the possibilities

 

[Angry Beavers]

:subscribe: Looking forward to following this and kicking in a thought or two.

This was recently tweeted about Brian Roberts by Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Sounds like Roberts may not be over the concussion issues afterall. "Roberts possibly missing FanFest for medical reasons is a bad sign so close to the opening of ST. He played in 98 games past 2 years"

 

[Kubes]

In

 

[John Bender]

:subscribe: Looking forward to following this and kicking in a thought or two.This was recently tweeted about Brian Roberts by Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Sounds like Roberts may not be over the concussion issues afterall. "Roberts possibly missing FanFest for medical reasons is a bad sign so close to the opening of ST. He played in 98 games past 2 years"

Wow - sounds like another Morneau situation. Thanks for this

 

[Captain Hook]

Reynolds has been named the starting third baseman...not much change for him (I believe he has both 1B/3B eligibility)

BUT impacts Chris Davis who as of now would be the starting first baseman - sure they could bring in someone but Scott already gone so it would likely have to be someone currently not on the roster

 

[Eephus]

Reynolds has been named the starting third baseman...not much change for him (I believe he has both 1B/3B eligibility)BUT impacts Chris Davis who as of now would be the starting first baseman - sure they could bring in someone but Scott already gone so it would likely have to be someone currently not on the roster

Guerrero is still a free agent so they definitely have some holes to fill on the left side of the defensive spectrum. It's worse if Markakis isn't healthy come April.I think the potential fantasy value could be Reimold. If his name gets written in the middle of the lineup every day, he'll be a productive fantasy OF4. He has a chance to be a 20 HR/12 SB guy with 160 combined Rs and RBI. He's not a prospect anymore and has had injury issues of his own but he could be a post-hype sleeper for bottom feeders.

 

[John Bender]

1-12-2012: Boston Red Sox

The Cream of The Crop:

First Baseman: Adrian Gonzalez: Certainly a no-brainer here. I saw Adrian ranked around the end of the first round/beginning of the second round on various cheatsheets from the pundits but I think anyone who selected him earlier was just as satisfied. We may never know if the Homerun Derby really affected his power and thus his power numbers after the midway point of the season but all seems to be fine with Gonzalez going into 2012. I see him putting together a string of Miguel Cabrera-esque consistently solid seasons. The risk is low and the rewards are all but guaranteed if you spring for Gonzalez in mid-Round 1 this year.

Second Baseman: Dustin Pedroia: All the kid does is hit. He may come out cold, but has shown that he will always get hot and help your fantasy team down the stretch. Pedroia hit his career high in HRs, RBIs, and Stolen Bases and turned just 28 last August. No question, he is an elite option at the second base position. Draft with confidence in Round 2-3.

Outfielder: Jacoby Ellsbury: Jacoby was a beast in 2011 far exceeding even the high expectations many had for him and making the Red Sox signing of Carl Crawford look ridiculously short-sighted. He went over 30-30 with a .321 BA, .928 OPS, 119 Runs and 105 RBIs as a lead off hitter. I may pull the projections on his power back a tick in February, but you can draft him in Round 1 with confidence. It would certainly not surprise me if he was the first Red Sox player taken in many fantasy baseball drafts.

Starting Pitcher: Jon Lester: I truly did not know what to do with Lester. I’m not sure, after last season, if I consider him to be “The Cream of the Crop” and he will probably get drafted long before I am comfortable taking him and I will be okay with that. It’s not so much that he regressed necessarily; I can’t definitively make the case that he did. It’s the fact that he didn’t take the next step into Cy Young candidate territory as he was predicted to be. He’ll be one of my hardest players to project next month and I wouldn’t argue with anyone who believes he should be considered “The Next Tier” as opposed to “Cream of the Crop”.

The Next Tier:

Third Baseman: Kevin Youkilis: Youk’s numbers were hindered by injuries that he attempted to play through for much of the season and this injury-prone tag is warranted to a degree. He never seems to miss massive amounts of time other than in 2010, but he always has something going on with his body. He finished with a career low BA of .258 and only 17 HRs. If healthy (“if” being the operative word), I think he has another season or two left of 25-90.

Outfielder: Carl Crawford: If you just look at 2011 numbers, you might not even consider Carl Crawford in the 2nd tier. Drafted in the first or second round in many drafts, Crawford cost many a fantasy season with his abysmal and embarrassing production. I’m giving him a one year reprieve and cautiously keeping him in “The Next Tier”. He might not replicate his pre-2011 production, but he might be scooped up later than normal in a draft and end up being a key to a fantasy season this time around.

Designated Hitter: David Ortiz: Papi hit for his highest average since 2007 and buried any talk about him no longer being able to catch up to major league pitching. I still think 30-100 (more likely 25-90) is attainable for one more season but I wouldn’t bet my fantasy season on it.

Starting Pitcher: Josh Beckett: Josh had an amazing season, but you never what Beckett you’re going to get. For those in leagues that count WHIP as a category, I would bump him up the rankings considerably. Despite a few rocky years in Boston, Josh still holds a 1.22 career WHIP in the majors finishing at 1.02 last season. His unpredictable nature is why I’ll likely pass on him in most of my drafts this year unless there is clear value in the draft position. Beckett has alternating seasons of an ERA under 4.00 and an ERA over 4.00 going all the way back to 2005. If 2012 holds to the pattern, you might be looking at an ERA in the high 4′s.

Relief Pitcher: Andrew Bailey: Nice pick up for the Red Sox and he came on the cheap relatively speaking. The guy will lose some of his elite status in the WHIP category with the move to the AL East and a smaller ballpark, but will compensate by having many more save opportunities. I think he’s Top 3 in the AL off your board when it comes to closers.

The Rest:

Starting Pitcher: Clay Buchholz: You know, it really depends on how deep your league is when considering whether Clay belongs a notch up on this scale or not. He’s pitched well when healthy and is draftable in all formats. Keep an eye on the back issue and any news on it during spring training.

Catcher: Jarrod Saltalamacchia: Weak position, he hits for a little bit of pop, and is in a great lineup. Draftable in most leagues if you find yourself stuck without a catcher late in the draft.

Shortstop: Marco Scutaro: Scutaro plays SS in the middle of a great lineup and managed a .299 batting average last year. It’s hard to see him completely sapping your batting average if you draft him in AL-only leagues. He’s rosterable but just barely in many formats.

Bottom of the Barrel:

Starting Pitcher: Daniel Bard: I think many are going to disagree with me about Bard being at the bottom of the heap but he’s been a reliever throughout his short major league career and lacks an effective 3rd pitch. He’s one to watch in spring training and adjust your cheat sheets accordingly.

Catcher: Ryan Lavarnway: I don’t know where his playing time is going to figure in so he may only be draftable in AL-only formats, but he’s got some nice pop and should see a little bit of time at catcher this year. Worth a flyer in the deepest of leagues only.

Outfielder: Ryan Sweeney: No power to speak of, but a career .283 batting average in 1515 major league at bats. Worth a glance depending on your league’s format.

 

[Captain Hook]

I disagree with Lester in the Cream of the Crop section.

Still a good pitcher but not close to 1st or 2nd tier in mixed leagues.....not even top tier in AL only leagues

Lavarnway is interesting because of the power.....BUT they signed Shoppach and I doubt they are going to carry three catchers at least to start the season so pretty good chance that Lavarnway at least starts at AAA

Watch the spring training lineups as an indication of how much they are going to play Sweeney - Kalish rates not to be available by the start of the season and Sweeney's ability to hit to left might get him a lot of Green Monster doubles and he might be a good spec as an OF4 or OF5

 

[RnR]

I disagree with Lester in the Cream of the Crop section.

Still a good pitcher but not close to 1st or 2nd tier in mixed leagues.....not even top tier in AL only leagues

Not close to the 2nd tier?Define your tiers.

 

[shadyridr]

Lester belongs in the 2nd tier

 

[Captain Hook]

I disagree with Lester in the Cream of the Crop section.

Still a good pitcher but not close to 1st or 2nd tier in mixed leagues.....not even top tier in AL only leagues

Not close to the 2nd tier?Define your tiers.

Are you putting Lester ahead of any of these guys? for 5X51. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia

2. Justin Verlander, Detroit

3. Clayton Kershaw, LA Dodgers

4. Jered Weaver, LA Angels

5. Dan Haren, LA Angels

6. Felix Hernandez, Seattle

7. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia

8. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco

9. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia

10. Michael Pineda, Seattle

11. C.J. Wilson, LA Angels

12. C.C. Sabathia, NY Yankees

13. David Price, Tampa Bay

14. Zach Greinke, Milwaukee

15. Matt Cain, San Francisco

 

[RnR]

I disagree with Lester in the Cream of the Crop section.

Still a good pitcher but not close to 1st or 2nd tier in mixed leagues.....not even top tier in AL only leagues

Not close to the 2nd tier?Define your tiers.

Are you putting Lester ahead of any of these guys? for 5X59. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia

10. Michael Pineda, Seattle

11. C.J. Wilson, LA Angels

12. C.C. Sabathia, NY Yankees

13. David Price, Tampa Bay

14. Zach Greinke, Milwaukee

15. Matt Cain, San Francisco

You can easily make the case he belongs in this group, which I would call the 2nd tier. In fact, based on track record alone you can comfortably slot him ahead of Pineda.

 

[Eephus]

I disagree with Lester in the Cream of the Crop section.

Still a good pitcher but not close to 1st or 2nd tier in mixed leagues.....not even top tier in AL only leagues

Not close to the 2nd tier?Define your tiers.

Are you putting Lester ahead of any of these guys? for 5X59. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia

10. Michael Pineda, Seattle

11. C.J. Wilson, LA Angels

12. C.C. Sabathia, NY Yankees

13. David Price, Tampa Bay

14. Zach Greinke, Milwaukee

15. Matt Cain, San Francisco

You can easily make the case he belongs in this group, which I would call the 2nd tier. In fact, based on track record alone you can comfortably slot him ahead of Pineda.

I might throw Haren into this tier

 

[Eephus]

I disagree with Lester in the Cream of the Crop section.

Still a good pitcher but not close to 1st or 2nd tier in mixed leagues.....not even top tier in AL only leagues

Not close to the 2nd tier?Define your tiers.

Are you putting Lester ahead of any of these guys? for 5X59. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia

10. Michael Pineda, Seattle

11. C.J. Wilson, LA Angels

12. C.C. Sabathia, NY Yankees

13. David Price, Tampa Bay

14. Zach Greinke, Milwaukee

15. Matt Cain, San Francisco

You can easily make the case he belongs in this group, which I would call the 2nd tier. In fact, based on track record alone you can comfortably slot him ahead of Pineda.

I might throw Haren into this tier

 

[RnR]

I disagree with Lester in the Cream of the Crop section.

Still a good pitcher but not close to 1st or 2nd tier in mixed leagues.....not even top tier in AL only leagues

Not close to the 2nd tier?Define your tiers.

Are you putting Lester ahead of any of these guys? for 5X59. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia

10. Michael Pineda, Seattle

11. C.J. Wilson, LA Angels

12. C.C. Sabathia, NY Yankees

13. David Price, Tampa Bay

14. Zach Greinke, Milwaukee

15. Matt Cain, San Francisco

You can easily make the case he belongs in this group, which I would call the 2nd tier. In fact, based on track record alone you can comfortably slot him ahead of Pineda.

I might throw Haren into this tier

I'd agree with that. Probably at the upper end of that tier, to be honest.

 

[John Bender]

Like I said, I wouldn't argue with anyone saying Lester belongs in tier 2. But to say he's not even close to Tier 2 is wrong.

He is consistently good. I don't think he's had any blow you away seasons but I think he's had 4 straight years of sub 3.50 ERA and 15 wins. To me, that's a low risk pick for not blowing your draft.

Compared to the others in that regard (when we're talking about fantasy purposes):

Past 4 Years

9. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia - 0 seasons of 15 Wins, 4 Years under 3.50 ERA

10. Michael Pineda, Seattle - Only 1 season in the majors

11. C.J. Wilson, LA Angels - Only 2 years as a starter and 15 wins/under 3.50 ERA in both

12. C.C. Sabathia, NY Yankees - 4 Years of 15 Wins, 4 years under 3.50 ERA

13. David Price, Tampa Bay - 3 Years in majors: 1 with 15 wins, 1 with under 3.50 ERA

14. Zach Greinke, Milwaukee - 2 years with 15 wins, 2 years with under 3.50 ERA

15. Matt Cain, San Francisco - 0 Seasons of 15 Wins, 3 Years under 3.50 ERA

He's in the mix with these guys.

 

[RnR]

Like I said, I wouldn't argue with anyone saying Lester belongs in tier 2. But to say he's not even close to Tier 2 is wrong.

He is consistently good. I don't think he's had any blow you away seasons but I think he's had 4 straight years of sub 3.50 ERA and 15 wins. To me, that's a low risk pick for not blowing your draft.

Compared to the others in that regard (when we're talking about fantasy purposes):

Past 4 Years

9. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia - 0 seasons of 15 Wins, 4 Years under 3.50 ERA

10. Michael Pineda, Seattle - Only 1 season in the majors

11. C.J. Wilson, LA Angels - Only 2 years as a starter and 15 wins/under 3.50 ERA in both

12. C.C. Sabathia, NY Yankees - 4 Years of 15 Wins, 4 years under 3.50 ERA

13. David Price, Tampa Bay - 3 Years in majors: 1 with 15 wins, 1 with under 3.50 ERA

14. Zach Greinke, Milwaukee - 2 years with 15 wins, 2 years with under 3.50 ERA

15. Matt Cain, San Francisco - 0 Seasons of 15 Wins, 3 Years under 3.50 ERA

He's in the mix with these guys.

Exactly.

 

[Dirkswish]

I disagree with Lester in the Cream of the Crop section.

Still a good pitcher but not close to 1st or 2nd tier in mixed leagues.....not even top tier in AL only leagues

Not close to the 2nd tier?Define your tiers.

Are you putting Lester ahead of any of these guys? for 5X51. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia

2. Justin Verlander, Detroit

3. Clayton Kershaw, LA Dodgers

4. Jered Weaver, LA Angels

5. Dan Haren, LA Angels

6. Felix Hernandez, Seattle

7. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia

8. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco

9. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia

10. Michael Pineda, Seattle

11. C.J. Wilson, LA Angels

12. C.C. Sabathia, NY Yankees

13. David Price, Tampa Bay

14. Zach Greinke, Milwaukee

15. Matt Cain, San Francisco

This really scares me as a Ranger fan this year.

 

[Captain Hook]

I disagree with Lester in the Cream of the Crop section.

Still a good pitcher but not close to 1st or 2nd tier in mixed leagues.....not even top tier in AL only leagues

Not close to the 2nd tier?Define your tiers.

Are you putting Lester ahead of any of these guys? for 5X59. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia

10. Michael Pineda, Seattle

11. C.J. Wilson, LA Angels

12. C.C. Sabathia, NY Yankees

13. David Price, Tampa Bay

14. Zach Greinke, Milwaukee

15. Matt Cain, San Francisco

You can easily make the case he belongs in this group, which I would call the 2nd tier. In fact, based on track record alone you can comfortably slot him ahead of Pineda.

I might throw Haren into this tier

Maybe but if you look I have Haren above this group

 

[Captain Hook]

I disagree with Lester in the Cream of the Crop section.

Still a good pitcher but not close to 1st or 2nd tier in mixed leagues.....not even top tier in AL only leagues

Not close to the 2nd tier?Define your tiers.

Well it depends on how tightly you want to break the tiers - whether you want a certain number of pitchers or are grouping by projected results.None of the other pitchers rate to "earn" as much as Halladay, Kershaw or Verlander so in a strict sense they are TIER 1

As I view 2012 now, the next group would be Cliff Lee Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Cole Hamels and Tim Lincecum

If you are happy with any one of those top nine or like larger tiers they can be in T1 but I view them all as TIER 2

TIER 3 would be Sabathia, Pineda, Price, Cain, (maybe) James Shields (if you believe he will repeat that year, I don't),Greinke, and Christopher John Wilson

I would put Lester in the next group with Strasburg, Hellickson, Gallardo, Bumgarner, and Romero

 

[Captain Hook]

Like I said, I wouldn't argue with anyone saying Lester belongs in tier 2. But to say he's not even close to Tier 2 is wrong. He is consistently good. I don't think he's had any blow you away seasons but I think he's had 4 straight years of sub 3.50 ERA and 15 wins. To me, that's a low risk pick for not blowing your draft.Compared to the others in that regard (when we're talking about fantasy purposes)ast 4 Years9. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia - 0 seasons of 15 Wins, 4 Years under 3.50 ERA10. Michael Pineda, Seattle - Only 1 season in the majors11. C.J. Wilson, LA Angels - Only 2 years as a starter and 15 wins/under 3.50 ERA in both12. C.C. Sabathia, NY Yankees - 4 Years of 15 Wins, 4 years under 3.50 ERA13. David Price, Tampa Bay - 3 Years in majors: 1 with 15 wins, 1 with under 3.50 ERA14. Zach Greinke, Milwaukee - 2 years with 15 wins, 2 years with under 3.50 ERA15. Matt Cain, San Francisco - 0 Seasons of 15 Wins, 3 Years under 3.50 ERA

Not saying he is not "good" - I just think the others WILL be better this year. It is NOT about what they have done in the past as you well know - we want to draft them based on what they will do in 2012.Do you want Lester as your SP1 for this year?I don't..............he might be a SP2 for me on some teams but more likely in a perfect world, SP3

 

[John Bender]

I disagree with Lester in the Cream of the Crop section.

Still a good pitcher but not close to 1st or 2nd tier in mixed leagues.....not even top tier in AL only leagues

Not close to the 2nd tier?Define your tiers.

Well it depends on how tightly you want to break the tiers - whether you want a certain number of pitchers or are grouping by projected results.None of the other pitchers rate to "earn" as much as Halladay, Kershaw or Verlander so in a strict sense they are TIER 1

As I view 2012 now, the next group would be Cliff Lee Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Cole Hamels and Tim Lincecum

If you are happy with any one of those top nine or like larger tiers they can be in T1 but I view them all as TIER 2

TIER 3 would be Sabathia, Pineda, Price, Cain, (maybe) James Shields (if you believe he will repeat that year, I don't),Greinke, and Christopher John Wilson

I would put Lester in the next group with Strasburg, Hellickson, Gallardo, Bumgarner, and Romero

Sabathia in Tier 3 is eye popping to me:3.00 ERA, 19 Wins, 230 strikeouts

2nd in the AL in Wins

2nd in the AL in Strikeouts

9th in ERA

At least Tier 2 for me. I'll take 19 wins and 230 strikeouts any day in a roto league.

 

[John Bender]

Like I said, I wouldn't argue with anyone saying Lester belongs in tier 2. But to say he's not even close to Tier 2 is wrong. He is consistently good. I don't think he's had any blow you away seasons but I think he's had 4 straight years of sub 3.50 ERA and 15 wins. To me, that's a low risk pick for not blowing your draft.Compared to the others in that regard (when we're talking about fantasy purposes)ast 4 Years9. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia - 0 seasons of 15 Wins, 4 Years under 3.50 ERA10. Michael Pineda, Seattle - Only 1 season in the majors11. C.J. Wilson, LA Angels - Only 2 years as a starter and 15 wins/under 3.50 ERA in both12. C.C. Sabathia, NY Yankees - 4 Years of 15 Wins, 4 years under 3.50 ERA13. David Price, Tampa Bay - 3 Years in majors: 1 with 15 wins, 1 with under 3.50 ERA14. Zach Greinke, Milwaukee - 2 years with 15 wins, 2 years with under 3.50 ERA15. Matt Cain, San Francisco - 0 Seasons of 15 Wins, 3 Years under 3.50 ERA

Not saying he is not "good" - I just think the others WILL be better this year. It is NOT about what they have done in the past as you well know - we want to draft them based on what they will do in 2012.Do you want Lester as your SP1 for this year?I don't..............he might be a SP2 for me on some teams but more likely in a perfect world, SP3

I won't, and my main league is filled with Boston homers, so I won't draft him. But I have more faith in his consistency than CJ Wilson, Greinke, or Michael Pineda. If I'm draft "safely", I'd rank Lester ahead

 

[John Bender]

Chicago White Sox coming out today for anyone that does care....probably around 8 PM

 

[Captain Hook]

Chicago White Sox coming out today for anyone that does care....probably around 8 PM

Very glad to have all these JB - fun to discuss and get differing viewpoints....although the Pale Hose group is uglier than many thanks to Kenny Williams

 

[John Bender]

Chicago White Sox coming out today for anyone that does care....probably around 8 PM

Very glad to have all these JB - fun to discuss and get differing viewpoints....although the Pale Hose group is uglier than many thanks to Kenny Williams

Agreed - isn't turning out to be a very fun write up.I like discussing this stuff too on a broad level when there isn't much going on.

 

[RnR]

Like I said, I wouldn't argue with anyone saying Lester belongs in tier 2. But to say he's not even close to Tier 2 is wrong. He is consistently good. I don't think he's had any blow you away seasons but I think he's had 4 straight years of sub 3.50 ERA and 15 wins. To me, that's a low risk pick for not blowing your draft.Compared to the others in that regard (when we're talking about fantasy purposes)ast 4 Years9. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia - 0 seasons of 15 Wins, 4 Years under 3.50 ERA10. Michael Pineda, Seattle - Only 1 season in the majors11. C.J. Wilson, LA Angels - Only 2 years as a starter and 15 wins/under 3.50 ERA in both12. C.C. Sabathia, NY Yankees - 4 Years of 15 Wins, 4 years under 3.50 ERA13. David Price, Tampa Bay - 3 Years in majors: 1 with 15 wins, 1 with under 3.50 ERA14. Zach Greinke, Milwaukee - 2 years with 15 wins, 2 years with under 3.50 ERA15. Matt Cain, San Francisco - 0 Seasons of 15 Wins, 3 Years under 3.50 ERA

Not saying he is not "good" - I just think the others WILL be better this year. It is NOT about what they have done in the past as you well know - we want to draft them based on what they will do in 2012.Do you want Lester as your SP1 for this year?I don't..............he might be a SP2 for me on some teams but more likely in a perfect world, SP3

Not trying to pollute Bender's 30/30 thread here, but I could think of worse situations than Lester being my #1. That most likely means I have a strong hitting base and have added a fairly consistent 3.50 ERA, 15 win, 200 K guy to anchor my staff. I play NFBC 15-team, so I consider Lester a low-end #1 / high-end #2. I think you'll see him drafted accordingly in March. I don't think you'll see him as the #3 on very many teams, if at all.

 

[John Bender]

Like I said, I wouldn't argue with anyone saying Lester belongs in tier 2. But to say he's not even close to Tier 2 is wrong. He is consistently good. I don't think he's had any blow you away seasons but I think he's had 4 straight years of sub 3.50 ERA and 15 wins. To me, that's a low risk pick for not blowing your draft.Compared to the others in that regard (when we're talking about fantasy purposes)ast 4 Years9. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia - 0 seasons of 15 Wins, 4 Years under 3.50 ERA10. Michael Pineda, Seattle - Only 1 season in the majors11. C.J. Wilson, LA Angels - Only 2 years as a starter and 15 wins/under 3.50 ERA in both12. C.C. Sabathia, NY Yankees - 4 Years of 15 Wins, 4 years under 3.50 ERA13. David Price, Tampa Bay - 3 Years in majors: 1 with 15 wins, 1 with under 3.50 ERA14. Zach Greinke, Milwaukee - 2 years with 15 wins, 2 years with under 3.50 ERA15. Matt Cain, San Francisco - 0 Seasons of 15 Wins, 3 Years under 3.50 ERA

Not saying he is not "good" - I just think the others WILL be better this year. It is NOT about what they have done in the past as you well know - we want to draft them based on what they will do in 2012.Do you want Lester as your SP1 for this year?I don't..............he might be a SP2 for me on some teams but more likely in a perfect world, SP3

Not trying to pollute Bender's 30/30 thread here, but I could think of worse situations than Lester being my #1. That most likely means I have a strong hitting base and have added a fairly consistent 3.50 ERA, 15 win, 200 K guy to anchor my staff. I play NFBC 15-team, so I consider Lester a low-end #1 / high-end #2. I think you'll see him drafted accordingly in March. I don't think you'll see him as the #3 on very many teams, if at all.

Please clog up the thread with thoughts as much as possible. I'm using this info and debate for a lot of future articles on my site. I like the outside opinions a lot

 

[Eephus]

Not trying to pollute Bender's 30/30 thread here, but I could think of worse situations than Lester being my #1. That most likely means I have a strong hitting base and have added a fairly consistent 3.50 ERA, 15 win, 200 K guy to anchor my staff. I play NFBC 15-team, so I consider Lester a low-end #1 / high-end #2. I think you'll see him drafted accordingly in March. I don't think you'll see him as the #3 on very many teams, if at all.

BFD

 

[Captain Hook]

Not trying to pollute Bender's 30/30 thread here, but I could think of worse situations than Lester being my #1. That most likely means I have a strong hitting base and have added a fairly consistent 3.50 ERA, 15 win, 200 K guy to anchor my staff. I play NFBC 15-team, so I consider Lester a low-end #1 / high-end #2. I think you'll see him drafted accordingly in March. I don't think you'll see him as the #3 on very many teams, if at all.

Well then you know that in the last three leagues that Greg posted the first six rounds from, Lester was drafted1) SP13 in the early fourth round2) SP16 in the fifth round3) SP13 in the middle of the fourth roundI find #2 to be more palatable but even in that example you have only started with four strong hitters before taking your first SP.NFBC trends in recent years would suggest you are going to have to take at least two more starters fairly quickly to catch up with those who started with a TIER 1 pitcher (and hope your SP2 and SP3 are better than theirs)

 

[RnR]

Not trying to pollute Bender's 30/30 thread here, but I could think of worse situations than Lester being my #1. That most likely means I have a strong hitting base and have added a fairly consistent 3.50 ERA, 15 win, 200 K guy to anchor my staff. I play NFBC 15-team, so I consider Lester a low-end #1 / high-end #2. I think you'll see him drafted accordingly in March. I don't think you'll see him as the #3 on very many teams, if at all.

BFD

So now the style of league isn't relevant?

 

[RnR]

Not trying to pollute Bender's 30/30 thread here, but I could think of worse situations than Lester being my #1. That most likely means I have a strong hitting base and have added a fairly consistent 3.50 ERA, 15 win, 200 K guy to anchor my staff. I play NFBC 15-team, so I consider Lester a low-end #1 / high-end #2. I think you'll see him drafted accordingly in March. I don't think you'll see him as the #3 on very many teams, if at all.

Well then you know that in the last three leagues that Greg posted the first six rounds from, Lester was drafted1) SP13 in the early fourth round2) SP16 in the fifth round3) SP13 in the middle of the fourth roundI find #2 to be more palatable but even in that example you have only started with four strong hitters before taking your first SP.NFBC trends in recent years would suggest you are going to have to take at least two more starters fairly quickly to catch up with those who started with a TIER 1 pitcher (and hope your SP2 and SP3 are better than theirs)

So now I'm confused as to what we're arguing about. SP 13, 16, and 13 seems to be in line with my valuation: A low-end #1 or a high-end #2. Of course you're going to have to spend some picks on your SP #2 and #3 fairly quickly if you wait on your SP #1. Theory should be that you're taking those guys in rounds 6-10 while the guys that burned a top 3 pick on a SP #1 are trying to make up ground in hitting cats.

 

[Captain Hook]

No problem - we are on the same page man

 

[RnR]

No problem - we are on the same page man

I see you around those forums from time to time, what events are you playing this year?

 

[Captain Hook]

No problem - we are on the same page man

I see you around those forums from time to time, what events are you playing this year?

not sure since they have changed their stance and are banning entrants from AZ as well as the other states that still have decades old prohibitions about winning money in these types of contests (likely their new lawyers with STATS made them toe the line)so I may "partner" with someone from an allowed address or I may just sit out a year (unfortunately the missing contest still owes us about $13K from last year)

 

[John Bender]

The Cream of The Crop:

First Baseman: Paul Konerko: Paul is going to turn 36 this season but has rebounded nicely from a 2008 season in which we all thought he was done. Over his last 3 years, Konerko is averaging a batting average just off of the .300 pace, 33 HRs, and 101 RBIs. He’s the only truly reliable option in that lineup at this point and I truthfully don’t know what 36 years old means for Konerko in a year where the White Sox will have a new manager and a lot of unrest. I like him shortly after the top tier of 1B are gone and had he not been on a team devoid of any other real elite fantasy players, he’d likely be ranked down in the next tier

The Next Tier:

Shortstop: Alexei Ramirez: More of a positional scarcity issue here. His numbers aren’t overly impressive and he is more of a middle of the road option in mixed leagues but he did rank 4th in the AL in runs, homeruns and RBIs amongst shortstops. He’s the next tier as far as White Sox offensive players go but he is not a truly reliable fantasy option in most leagues.

The Rest:

Catcher: A.J. Pierzynski: If you’re like me, you generally wait on drafting a catcher. Pierzynski is a decent option in the double digit draft rounds for the simple fact that he gets the ball in play. A .284 career hitter without much power makes him a passable option at a light hitting position in general.

Second Baseman: Gordon Beckham: Beckham was drafted last year with the hopes that he would finally break into the player he was projected to be in 2008. He missed the mark and managed only a .230 batting average and a paltry .633 OPS. At the age of 25, he’s got one year left to prove he belongs in the “Next Tier”, but I’m going to be passing on him in 2012. I think he comes with significant risk.

Starting Pitcher: John Danks: Danks was pretty consistent in ’08, ’09, and ’10, but those who drafted him based on that consistency were likely struggling with to do with him at times throughout the season. He hurt WHIP-leaguers with a 1.339 WHIp and a 4.33 earned run average. Worst of all, Danks only managed an 8-12 record. He was droppable down the stretch in September hurling 29 innings and giving up 25 earned runs and 42 hits. Stay away unless you’re seeing an angle I’m not and hoping he can get back to his consistent pre-2011 self.

Starting Pitcher: Gavin Floyd: There was good and bad for Floyd in 2011. He had a 4 year low WHIP of 1.16 but also a 4 year high in ERA at 4.37. I never seem to own a White Sox starting pitcher on my fantasy teams. They are an inconsistent group of pitchers and not reliable for fantasy purposes. Floyd is the poster boy for that inconsistency, I’ll stay away in 2012 as well.

Starting Pitcher: Jake Peavy: There’s very high risk involved with Peavy as well as he just can’t stay healthy and 2011 was no different. He’s almost bottom of the barrel at this point in the game. In 2 full seasons since coming to the Padres, he has tossed only a total of 218 innings. He’s a guy that someone in your league will draft, but one that I will avoid at all costs.

The Bottom of the Barrel:

Outfielder: Juan Pierre: You draft Juan for his speed, and it looks like his speed is dwindling fast at the age of 34. Pierre only stole 27 bags in 2011 and was caught stealing 17 times. It was a disappointing season for the once speedy Pierre and I’m not sure I see a rebound of any sort based on what I witnessed in ’11.

First Baseman: Adam Dunn: After one of the ugliest seasons in recent memory, Dunn has attained bottom of the barrel status in my eyes. His stat line was ugly: .159 BA, .569 OPS, with 11 HRs and 42 RBIs. Most that drafted him for the promise of a 40 HR season were ripping their hair out all throughout the season as he never got it together.

Outfielder: Alex Rios: Equally as disappointing was Alex Rios’ season. I don’t like to say a player is “done”, but I think Rios is. Someone will draft him based on the promise he showed in 2010, but I will stay away as Rios turns 31 in February and doesn’t appear to be able to impact anyone’s team.

Outfielder: Dayan Viciedo: The Cuban might have a chance at an every day RF position and could develop. He’s one I’m watching in spring training and will adjust accordingly if he shows that he’s getting playing time.

Starting Pitcher: Chris Sale: Another reliever making the jump to the bullpen. Keep one eye on him but don’t draft unless you see something you like in March.

 

[Captain Hook]

In general I agree the White Sox are (relatively) a bad team for fantasy prospects. I think their main problem is that while Kenny Williams wants to or thinks he needs to rebuild someone is not letting him. So they are sort of trying to reload - but it won't work very well.

That said I disagree with a few of these:

The Bottom of the Barrel:

Outfielder: Juan Pierre: You draft Juan for his speed, and it looks like his speed is dwindling fast at the age of 34. Pierre only stole 27 bags in 2011 and was caught stealing 17 times. It was a disappointing season for the once speedy Pierre and Im not sure I see a rebound of any sort based on what I witnessed in 11.

Outfielder: Dayan Viciedo: The Cuban might have a chance at an every day RF position and could develop. Hes one Im watching in spring training and will adjust accordingly if he shows that hes getting playing time.

Starting Pitcher: Chris Sale: Another reliever making the jump to the bullpen. Keep one eye on him but dont draft unless you see something you like in March.

PIERRE - is a free agent....pretty unlikely he is playing for the White Sox in 2012

VICIEDO - with the Quentin trade IS the starting RF and should hit at least 20 home runs with a plus batting average (maybe 280 to 290)

SALE - Have you ever seen him pitch? He has electrifying stuff and was a starter in college (and lead the nation in strikeouts). He will likely continue to have better than a strikeout per inning and I think his ratios will be fine - the Wins will be hard to get but this is really a guy you want in keeper leagues if you can get him cheap

 

[John Bender]

In general I agree the White Sox are (relatively) a bad team for fantasy prospects. I think their main problem is that while Kenny Williams wants to or thinks he needs to rebuild someone is not letting him. So they are sort of trying to reload - but it won't work very well.

That said I disagree with a few of these:

The Bottom of the Barrel:

Outfielder: Juan Pierre: You draft Juan for his speed, and it looks like his speed is dwindling fast at the age of 34. Pierre only stole 27 bags in 2011 and was caught stealing 17 times. It was a disappointing season for the once speedy Pierre and I’m not sure I see a rebound of any sort based on what I witnessed in ’11.

Outfielder: Dayan Viciedo: The Cuban might have a chance at an every day RF position and could develop. He’s one I’m watching in spring training and will adjust accordingly if he shows that he’s getting playing time.

Starting Pitcher: Chris Sale: Another reliever making the jump to the bullpen. Keep one eye on him but don’t draft unless you see something you like in March.

PIERRE - is a free agent....pretty unlikely he is playing for the White Sox in 2012

VICIEDO - with the Quentin trade IS the starting RF and should hit at least 20 home runs with a plus batting average (maybe 280 to 290)

SALE - Have you ever seen him pitch? He has electrifying stuff and was a starter in college (and lead the nation in strikeouts). He will likely continue to have better than a strikeout per inning and I think his ratios will be fine - the Wins will be hard to get but this is really a guy you want in keeper leagues if you can get him cheap

Good post.

As far as Pierre, I wasn't sure what team to put him on so I went with the White Sox. Notice I didn't mention anything about him within the team itself. I have to find a place to talk about Pierre/Fielder/Oswalt guys like that in these write ups as I'd like to not leave anyone of note out.

That said, I think I should probably start each 30/30 with a disclaimer stating such.

Viciendo: I though we might see Alejandro De Aza battling Viciendo for one of the 2 starting OF jobs (add Lillibridge to the mix). My guess is they sign an OF. In fact, they pretty much have to.

Of course I've seen Sale pitch, not to go all Finless on you, but if your question is literal, I watch baseball for 9 hours a day in March - October. Been getting the baseball package for years now. I watch a lot of Sox because I love Hawk Harrelsons' "You Can Put It On The Board" shtick. Anyway - that directly answers that question - can't tell if it was tongue in cheek or not. I watched Sale a lot this year. I can respect that Sale has electric stuff, so does Bard. As far as fantasy purposes though, I'm not drafting a reliever turned starter in their first year. Personal philosophy and I think if you are in a 12 team mixed league, Chris Sale is hardly draftable as a starter if I'm being honest. It's my personal opinion. We can break that down more when I do my projections on the blog in February and maybe see where we disagree.

I appreciate the response though.

 

[Captain Hook]

As of now DeAza will be the starter in CF with the Sox moving Rios to LF (assuming they can't get rid of him)

So the OF should be Rios/DeAza/Viciedo

 

[John Bender]

Should have 6 more teams posted Friday. On a work trip this week. they are almost all completed.

 

[Angry Beavers]

Who do we (I am looking at you Bender and Hook) think is going to close for the CWS this year? Thornton assuming he does not get traded? I hate taking a closer early as it is such a volatile position and you usually can find em' as the season moves along just by paying attention and being a little aggressive on the Waiver Wire. I also like to find closers late in the draft. Just because they pitch for a bad team, does not mean they don't get decent save numbers while not destroying your ratios. I know it is still early but wondering what you guys think.