3rd year WR question (1 Viewer)

[SugarNuts]

So 1st off, who will be the 3rd year WRs to have that breakout year? Last year was Rice and Smith.

The real reason for this post though is to ask if there has ever been a study of those WRs that DO have the breakout 3rd year, how many of them go on to continue success compared to those that actually fall off the face of the earth.

In other words, if a WR has the 3rd year breakout, is that evidence they are likely to go on to a successful career, or does it really not mean anything other than they had a great year in year 3?

Know what Im sayin'?

 

[DoubleG]

So 1st off, who will be the 3rd year WRs to have that breakout year? Last year was Rice and Smith. The real reason for this post though is to ask if there has ever been a study of those WRs that DO have the breakout 3rd year, how many of them go on to continue success compared to those that actually fall off the face of the earth. In other words, if a WR has the 3rd year breakout, is that evidence they are likely to go on to a successful career, or does it really not mean anything other than they had a great year in year 3? Know what Im sayin'?

Jermichael Finley Actually, the "3rd Year Breakout WR" thing has kind of been debunked. While some WRs have "broken out" in year 3, it's not any higher than those that did so in year 2 or year 4...etc. Therefore finding a relationship between year 3 breakouts and succesful careers would likely be coincidental as opposed to causal.

 

[Chase Stuart]

So 1st off, who will be the 3rd year WRs to have that breakout year? Last year was Rice and Smith. The real reason for this post though is to ask if there has ever been a study of those WRs that DO have the breakout 3rd year, how many of them go on to continue success compared to those that actually fall off the face of the earth. In other words, if a WR has the 3rd year breakout, is that evidence they are likely to go on to a successful career, or does it really not mean anything other than they had a great year in year 3? Know what Im sayin'?

You're going to want to compare them to some other set of players; knowing the absolute rate at which these WRs perform isn't nearly as important as knowing the relative rate. The question is, what group are you trying to compare them to?3rd year WRs who stink? 2nd year WR breakouts? 4th year WR breakouts? All good WRs regardless of age?

 

[SugarNuts]

So 1st off, who will be the 3rd year WRs to have that breakout year? Last year was Rice and Smith. The real reason for this post though is to ask if there has ever been a study of those WRs that DO have the breakout 3rd year, how many of them go on to continue success compared to those that actually fall off the face of the earth. In other words, if a WR has the 3rd year breakout, is that evidence they are likely to go on to a successful career, or does it really not mean anything other than they had a great year in year 3? Know what Im sayin'?

You're going to want to compare them to some other set of players; knowing the absolute rate at which these WRs perform isn't nearly as important as knowing the relative rate. The question is, what group are you trying to compare them to?3rd year WRs who stink? 2nd year WR breakouts? 4th year WR breakouts? All good WRs regardless of age?

Im not really comparing them to anyone. I guess I was trying to figure out the rate of WRs that have a 3rd year breakout, and go on to have continued success.