bengalbuck
Footballguy
While I know that in the early rounds you want guys with long track records of success, I think one of the best ways to find the mid and late round guys with huge potential is to find guys who have at least proven that they can show fantasy impact in a small sample size. In looking at games late last season, here is the list of guys I found most intriguing:
1. Jacoby Ford
The stats: From week 9 to week 16 Ford averaged 19.9 ppg in leagues that score return yards. In normal PPR with no return yards, he averaged 14.9 ppg.
Context: In return yard leagues, Ford was the WR4 in the 2nd half of the year behind only Jennings, Bowe and A. Johnson. In normal PPR, he was WR15 over the 2nd half of last season.
Optimistic view: Aside from being the halfway point of the Raiders season, what importance did week 9 have? It was Ford's coming out party. He entirely took over a big division matchup against the rival Chiefs and carried the Raiders to victory. It was an amazing coming out party. (Youtube link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoP6ODerfSs&feature=related) Hue Jackson has mentioned that he believes Ford is a huge talent and that he will soon be a household name. It sounds like he will be WR1 for the Raiders next year and just watching the guy, he gives off a young Steve Smith (Car.) vibe where he is the fastest guy on the field, but also one of the toughest.
Pessimist view: It was only half a season and the Raiders are a mess with a bad QB. He may never be a huge number of catch guy, so maybe his upside is Desean Jackson?
My take: He was the #1 guy I was targeting in a recent dynasty startup and felt like I got a steal in the mid 8th round. I feel comfortable counting on him as my WR3 and I expect him to be a solid 200+ point guy in PPR and potentially a 250+ guy in my league with return yardage included. And he's only going into year 2. If he continues to improve and the Raiders find a better QB, he could be big-time.
2. Time Tebow
The Stats: He took over as the starter in Week 15 and in the final 3 games of the year, he was QB1 in total fantasy points scored with 80 and he averaged 26.7 ppg.
Context: For the season, only Vick averaged more ppg as a starting QB than Tebow (27ppg). For further context, Aaron Rodgers for the season averaged less than 23ppg.
Optimistic View: In those final 3 games, Tebow rushed for 199 yards and 3 TDs. Projected over a full season, he would have rushed for more than 1,000 yards and 16 TDs. Obviously those numbers are pretty ridiculous, but I do think a case can be made that the projections for Tim's rushing stats are way too low. If he rushes for even 10 TDs (he had 6 last year in very limited time), that is the equivalent of 15 passing TDs in fantasy scoring. Is it really crazy to think he throws for 15 TDs and rushes for 10? If so, wouldn't he have to be pretty fantasty relevant?
Pessimistic View: This is an extremely small sample size (3 games). He isn't 100% guaranteed to start. He has a new coach who likes RBs.
My View: Tebow is far from a guarantee but even if you think there's maybe a 20% chance that he can put together a 600 yard, 10 TD rushing season along with solid passing numbers, he is well worth a pick for many. Specifically, in drafts where I am able to lock up a sure thing, top 6 QB (i.e. Brees), I will target Tebow late in the draft as my QB2. I wasn't able to get him in the most recent, but I think people are really underestimating his upside and those late round picks should be all about upside.
3. Antonio Gates
The Stats: In 10 games last season, Gates had 50 catches, 782 yards and 10 TDs. In normal PPR, he scored 18.8 ppg (over 3 ppg more than TE2). Over a full season, he was on pace for 80 catches 1,250 yards and 16 TDs.
Optimistic View: It's a little weird to have a proven vet like Gates mixed in with these rookies, but his season last year was unlike anything else he had done previously in his career. It was on pace to be the best TE season ever. There is talk out of San Diego that they expect similar results all year in 2011. Possibly even better since Gates was hobbled in 4 of the 10 games he did play and is now healthy.
Pessimistic View: Fluky season. Gates will obviously be good, but those numbers were crazy and he can't pull off a full season like that. VJax maybe hurts his production if he's back?
My View: I passed on him in dynasty due to his age and how young the rest of my team was shaping up to be, but I will draft him much earlier than ADP to make sure I have him a re-draft league. I think he puts together a truly monstrous TE season where he beats the TE2 by 3 or 4 ppg and beats the TE12 by 8 or 9 ppg, which is just a massive advantage for his owner. I think he's a 1st round value you can grab in round 3 or 4.
4.Jimmy Graham
The Stats: Over the last 7 games, Graham scored 77 points in standard PPR, making him TE10 over that stretch.
Optimistic: After looking at Gates' stats, Graham's look extremely pedestrian and don't stick out much. However, it was clear that he started to become a bigger part of the Saints offense getting over 5 targets per game down the stretch (many in the red zone) and grabbing 4 TDs. The Saints on average have targeted their TEs 150 times per season over the past few years. With Shockey gone, it is entirely realistic that Graham will receive 100 targets if things stay steady at 150. However, if Lance Moore or Reggie Bush leave, the targets to TEs could go up even more. And if Colston's knee isn't quite right after microfracture surgery...Graham could get a ton of targets in 2011.
Pessimistic: He is still raw and even in the small sample size, he was only TE10 which doesn't justify him being drafted as TE6.
My view: I think there is some risk counting on Graham, though he has shown he can at least be a top 10 TE. However, the upside is immense depending upon how the Saints personnel shakes out. You know Brees is going to get his 4,000 yards...who is going to catch all those balls? Graham seems as well positioned as Jermichael Finley is, and though he's less proven, seems to have similar upside. He is my backup plan in the 6th round or so if I miss out on Gates in the 3rd.
5 and 6. AJ Green and Julio Jones
The stats: Green 56 catches, 963 yards, 8 TDs. Jones 58 catches, 924 yards, 4 TDs. Year=2008
The Context: In 2008, as true freshmen AJ Green and Julio Jones stepped right into the super competitive SEC and finished 1st and 3rd in receiving yards for the conference. Mississippi's Mike Wallace (now of the Steelers) in his 3rd and final year of college football, finished 5th with 784 yards. Another junior, Florida's Percy Harvin finished 9th.
Optimistic: Making the leap from high school football to the SEC (and into national championship races on top 10 teams) as true freshman is not easy. Yet these 2 guys did it and dominated the competition. They looked like men against boys even as true freshmen. Is the leap from the SEC to the NFL that much tougher that high school to the SEC? I'm not sure it is. I think the old WR "learning curve" rules might not apply to these guys who have been dominating top college competition for 3 years and have proven to be quick studies.
Pessimistic: Who cares what they did in college? They're still rookies. The Bengals QB is potentially bad. No summer training (though both guys have spent a lot of time with their QBs working on routes).
My View: Maybe I'm a bit biased, but I see both of these guys as massive talents, the likes of which we haven't seen in 5 years or so. I also think unlike the last similar talent (Megatron), these guys come with a ton more polish and real experience in a pro style offense where they have run all the routes. I expect both of these guys to come out of the gates with 65+ catches, 1,000 yards and 7+TDs. I'm all over them in dynasty and will draft at least one of the two a round earlier than ADP as my WR3 in re-draft.
1. Jacoby Ford
The stats: From week 9 to week 16 Ford averaged 19.9 ppg in leagues that score return yards. In normal PPR with no return yards, he averaged 14.9 ppg.
Context: In return yard leagues, Ford was the WR4 in the 2nd half of the year behind only Jennings, Bowe and A. Johnson. In normal PPR, he was WR15 over the 2nd half of last season.
Optimistic view: Aside from being the halfway point of the Raiders season, what importance did week 9 have? It was Ford's coming out party. He entirely took over a big division matchup against the rival Chiefs and carried the Raiders to victory. It was an amazing coming out party. (Youtube link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoP6ODerfSs&feature=related) Hue Jackson has mentioned that he believes Ford is a huge talent and that he will soon be a household name. It sounds like he will be WR1 for the Raiders next year and just watching the guy, he gives off a young Steve Smith (Car.) vibe where he is the fastest guy on the field, but also one of the toughest.
Pessimist view: It was only half a season and the Raiders are a mess with a bad QB. He may never be a huge number of catch guy, so maybe his upside is Desean Jackson?
My take: He was the #1 guy I was targeting in a recent dynasty startup and felt like I got a steal in the mid 8th round. I feel comfortable counting on him as my WR3 and I expect him to be a solid 200+ point guy in PPR and potentially a 250+ guy in my league with return yardage included. And he's only going into year 2. If he continues to improve and the Raiders find a better QB, he could be big-time.
2. Time Tebow
The Stats: He took over as the starter in Week 15 and in the final 3 games of the year, he was QB1 in total fantasy points scored with 80 and he averaged 26.7 ppg.
Context: For the season, only Vick averaged more ppg as a starting QB than Tebow (27ppg). For further context, Aaron Rodgers for the season averaged less than 23ppg.
Optimistic View: In those final 3 games, Tebow rushed for 199 yards and 3 TDs. Projected over a full season, he would have rushed for more than 1,000 yards and 16 TDs. Obviously those numbers are pretty ridiculous, but I do think a case can be made that the projections for Tim's rushing stats are way too low. If he rushes for even 10 TDs (he had 6 last year in very limited time), that is the equivalent of 15 passing TDs in fantasy scoring. Is it really crazy to think he throws for 15 TDs and rushes for 10? If so, wouldn't he have to be pretty fantasty relevant?
Pessimistic View: This is an extremely small sample size (3 games). He isn't 100% guaranteed to start. He has a new coach who likes RBs.
My View: Tebow is far from a guarantee but even if you think there's maybe a 20% chance that he can put together a 600 yard, 10 TD rushing season along with solid passing numbers, he is well worth a pick for many. Specifically, in drafts where I am able to lock up a sure thing, top 6 QB (i.e. Brees), I will target Tebow late in the draft as my QB2. I wasn't able to get him in the most recent, but I think people are really underestimating his upside and those late round picks should be all about upside.
3. Antonio Gates
The Stats: In 10 games last season, Gates had 50 catches, 782 yards and 10 TDs. In normal PPR, he scored 18.8 ppg (over 3 ppg more than TE2). Over a full season, he was on pace for 80 catches 1,250 yards and 16 TDs.
Optimistic View: It's a little weird to have a proven vet like Gates mixed in with these rookies, but his season last year was unlike anything else he had done previously in his career. It was on pace to be the best TE season ever. There is talk out of San Diego that they expect similar results all year in 2011. Possibly even better since Gates was hobbled in 4 of the 10 games he did play and is now healthy.
Pessimistic View: Fluky season. Gates will obviously be good, but those numbers were crazy and he can't pull off a full season like that. VJax maybe hurts his production if he's back?
My View: I passed on him in dynasty due to his age and how young the rest of my team was shaping up to be, but I will draft him much earlier than ADP to make sure I have him a re-draft league. I think he puts together a truly monstrous TE season where he beats the TE2 by 3 or 4 ppg and beats the TE12 by 8 or 9 ppg, which is just a massive advantage for his owner. I think he's a 1st round value you can grab in round 3 or 4.
4.Jimmy Graham
The Stats: Over the last 7 games, Graham scored 77 points in standard PPR, making him TE10 over that stretch.
Optimistic: After looking at Gates' stats, Graham's look extremely pedestrian and don't stick out much. However, it was clear that he started to become a bigger part of the Saints offense getting over 5 targets per game down the stretch (many in the red zone) and grabbing 4 TDs. The Saints on average have targeted their TEs 150 times per season over the past few years. With Shockey gone, it is entirely realistic that Graham will receive 100 targets if things stay steady at 150. However, if Lance Moore or Reggie Bush leave, the targets to TEs could go up even more. And if Colston's knee isn't quite right after microfracture surgery...Graham could get a ton of targets in 2011.
Pessimistic: He is still raw and even in the small sample size, he was only TE10 which doesn't justify him being drafted as TE6.
My view: I think there is some risk counting on Graham, though he has shown he can at least be a top 10 TE. However, the upside is immense depending upon how the Saints personnel shakes out. You know Brees is going to get his 4,000 yards...who is going to catch all those balls? Graham seems as well positioned as Jermichael Finley is, and though he's less proven, seems to have similar upside. He is my backup plan in the 6th round or so if I miss out on Gates in the 3rd.
5 and 6. AJ Green and Julio Jones
The stats: Green 56 catches, 963 yards, 8 TDs. Jones 58 catches, 924 yards, 4 TDs. Year=2008
The Context: In 2008, as true freshmen AJ Green and Julio Jones stepped right into the super competitive SEC and finished 1st and 3rd in receiving yards for the conference. Mississippi's Mike Wallace (now of the Steelers) in his 3rd and final year of college football, finished 5th with 784 yards. Another junior, Florida's Percy Harvin finished 9th.
Optimistic: Making the leap from high school football to the SEC (and into national championship races on top 10 teams) as true freshman is not easy. Yet these 2 guys did it and dominated the competition. They looked like men against boys even as true freshmen. Is the leap from the SEC to the NFL that much tougher that high school to the SEC? I'm not sure it is. I think the old WR "learning curve" rules might not apply to these guys who have been dominating top college competition for 3 years and have proven to be quick studies.
Pessimistic: Who cares what they did in college? They're still rookies. The Bengals QB is potentially bad. No summer training (though both guys have spent a lot of time with their QBs working on routes).
My View: Maybe I'm a bit biased, but I see both of these guys as massive talents, the likes of which we haven't seen in 5 years or so. I also think unlike the last similar talent (Megatron), these guys come with a ton more polish and real experience in a pro style offense where they have run all the routes. I expect both of these guys to come out of the gates with 65+ catches, 1,000 yards and 7+TDs. I'm all over them in dynasty and will draft at least one of the two a round earlier than ADP as my WR3 in re-draft.
That would have been very difficult to pull off considering McDaniels was fired with four games remaining in the season. Tebow didn't start a single game while he was HC.
) isn't much help... conversely, being hair trigger quick (a quarter or half of one game) is dangerous and liable to spurious projections... chad johnson's half season breakout was very instructive, and afforded a lot of material by which to "scout" him... clayton's four games still give a moderate statistical context (he had more than a half decade body of work, but in much different situation with ravens than rams)... jerome simpson was impressive, but just in two games, so sussing out sustainability dicier...
Ford is just a OK player, nothing more.
