Nucker101
Footballguy
AP owner in my redraft 12 team PPR league offered AP and Greg Olsen for my Gronk and Moreno. I declined.For the AP owners out there, what would it take for you to trade him away?
AP owner in my redraft 12 team PPR league offered AP and Greg Olsen for my Gronk and Moreno. I declined.For the AP owners out there, what would it take for you to trade him away?
Yeah it was someone from fftoolbox.com saying that "rumors are swirling" and there are undisclosed injury concerns about the hamstring. Personally it sounds like complete speculation, plus AP played through the 4th quarter of last weeks game. But still, if I have Peterson, I'm handcuffing GerhartAnyone hear that AP's injured hamstring may be worse off than originally thought. I caught the tail end of what someone was reporting on SIRIUS radio this morning. Has anyone heard anything else or did anyone perhaps hear the whole interview??
Thanks! That is the report I was referring to. Grabbed up Gerhart myself.Yeah it was someone from fftoolbox.com saying that "rumors are swirling" and there are undisclosed injury concerns about the hamstring. Personally it sounds like complete speculation, plus AP played through the 4th quarter of last weeks game. But still, if I have Peterson, I'm handcuffing GerhartAnyone hear that AP's injured hamstring may be worse off than originally thought. I caught the tail end of what someone was reporting on SIRIUS radio this morning. Has anyone heard anything else or did anyone perhaps hear the whole interview??
You would indeed be insane to bench him. Unless you're somehow sitting on say... Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte and Reggie Bush in a start 2 RB league. Then MAYBE.
That said, yes... at this point I'd be a little surprised if Peterson finished Top 5 in PPR. So far his seasons been saved by a couple of big goal line TDs and two massive runs. He's currently on pace for 10.6 runs of 20+ yards and about 5.4 40+ yard runs. He's just not breaking those massive runs he was a season ago. This was to be expected though. That coupled with the fact that this offense is worse than it was last season equals a potential let down season.
In the end though? Right now he's 7th in Rushing Yards, 4th in YPC (over 100att) with 4.4ypc and tied for 5th in TDs with 5. The issue here is this though...
He's 7th in rushing yards with 511... take away his runs of 78 and 60? And he's sitting at 373 yards rushing on 113 carries for an abysmal 3.3ypc. Taking away a simple 2 carries on his season drops his ypc by 1.1. That is 100000000% a massive outlier and cause for concern.
On the same token? His "6 TDs", 2 were on those massive runs which you can't expect him to keep up... maybe he gets 2 more of those on the season? The other 4 though? All goal line type carries, which he's unlikely to see many more of all season. He's in a similar situation as Doug Martin right now. Where he's going to need the defense to get turnovers and get them close to TDs in order for him to get those TDs.
I'm not sure I'm "buying low" on AP right now. If anything I'm trying to sell him at the #1 RB name value he has and get something great in return. If you can somehow flip him and your QB1 for say Peyton Manning? I'd do it. If you can somehow flip him for Calvin or Dez? I'd probably do it. And if you can by some miracle package something like Moreno and a high WR2 for him I'd also just do it.
If I take away these two posts you wouldn't exist in this thread.Define "killing it"?AP is rb7 in my league and was killing it the first 4 games before the bye. the 2 games since the bye have been bad. Seems like an over reaction.
ADP before the bye: 92 rushes, 421 yards, 4.58 ypc. Team average of 28.75ppg.
ADP after the bye: 23 rushes, 90 yards, 3.91ypc. Team average of 8.5ppg
ADP before the bye subtracting his runs over 20 yards: 89 rushes, 247 yards, 2.77ypc
So there you have it... take away just 3 of his rushes on the season? And he's now averaging nearly 2ypc less than he is with those 3 runs. I'm not saying you can just ignore them, they did happen. But statistics tell us outliers shouldn't be ignored when evaluating situations like these. He had 3 monster runs and otherwise has done jack all season. And now the team is in turmoil and they're putting up 20 less PPG then they were going into the bye. So now you can't expect him to get 2-3 goal line opportunities a game. At this point AP's value is contingent on him breaking monster runs every week.
Hell, technically? He's running even BETTER now than he was prior to the bye. 3.91ypc vs 2.77ypc
It's one thing to remove a long run as an outlier from a guy like Jerome Bettis who rarely breaks off long runs. In that case, they're not necessarily predictive of his future production since they're unlikely to be repeated.Define "killing it"?AP is rb7 in my league and was killing it the first 4 games before the bye. the 2 games since the bye have been bad. Seems like an over reaction.
ADP before the bye: 92 rushes, 421 yards, 4.58 ypc. Team average of 28.75ppg.
ADP after the bye: 23 rushes, 90 yards, 3.91ypc. Team average of 8.5ppg
ADP before the bye subtracting his runs over 20 yards: 89 rushes, 247 yards, 2.77ypc
So there you have it... take away just 3 of his rushes on the season? And he's now averaging nearly 2ypc less than he is with those 3 runs. I'm not saying you can just ignore them, they did happen. But statistics tell us outliers shouldn't be ignored when evaluating situations like these. He had 3 monster runs and otherwise has done jack all season. And now the team is in turmoil and they're putting up 20 less PPG then they were going into the bye. So now you can't expect him to get 2-3 goal line opportunities a game. At this point AP's value is contingent on him breaking monster runs every week.
Hell, technically? He's running even BETTER now than he was prior to the bye. 3.91ypc vs 2.77ypc
Link togroin pains said:Anyone hear that AP's injured hamstring may be worse off than originally thought. I caught the tail end of what someone was reporting on SIRIUS radio this morning. Has anyone heard anything else or did anyone perhaps hear the whole interview??
Link to this mornings interview on SIRIUS. Not sure who this guys source is, but I do not see a reason to panic...YET.yoadrian said:Yeah it was someone from fftoolbox.com saying that "rumors are swirling" and there are undisclosed injury concerns about the hamstring. Personally it sounds like complete speculation, plus AP played through the 4th quarter of last weeks game. But still, if I have Peterson, I'm handcuffing Gerhartgroin pains said:Anyone hear that AP's injured hamstring may be worse off than originally thought. I caught the tail end of what someone was reporting on SIRIUS radio this morning. Has anyone heard anything else or did anyone perhaps hear the whole interview??
He had 27 runs of 20+ yards last season, he has 3 this season. He averaged 1.69 20+ yard carries PER GAME. This season he's averaging 0.5 20+ yard carries per game. Rather monster difference. He's on pace for only 8 runs of 20+ yards. Last season if you remove his 20+ yard runs from the stats he ran for 1130 yards on 321 carries for an average of 3.52ypc.FreeBaGeL said:It's one thing to remove a long run as an outlier from a guy like Jerome Bettis who rarely breaks off long runs. In that case, they're not necessarily predictive of his future production since they're unlikely to be repeated.Define "killing it"?AP is rb7 in my league and was killing it the first 4 games before the bye. the 2 games since the bye have been bad. Seems like an over reaction.
ADP before the bye: 92 rushes, 421 yards, 4.58 ypc. Team average of 28.75ppg.
ADP after the bye: 23 rushes, 90 yards, 3.91ypc. Team average of 8.5ppg
ADP before the bye subtracting his runs over 20 yards: 89 rushes, 247 yards, 2.77ypc
So there you have it... take away just 3 of his rushes on the season? And he's now averaging nearly 2ypc less than he is with those 3 runs. I'm not saying you can just ignore them, they did happen. But statistics tell us outliers shouldn't be ignored when evaluating situations like these. He had 3 monster runs and otherwise has done jack all season. And now the team is in turmoil and they're putting up 20 less PPG then they were going into the bye. So now you can't expect him to get 2-3 goal line opportunities a game. At this point AP's value is contingent on him breaking monster runs every week.
Hell, technically? He's running even BETTER now than he was prior to the bye. 3.91ypc vs 2.77ypc
For Peterson, though, long runs are part of his game. He breaks off long runs with regular occurrence every single year. They are far from an outlier and are still predictive of his future because they are very likely to be repeated.
I did the same thing.After listening to Bloom's podcast "On the Couch" I traded him straight up for Lynch.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9873280/adrian-peterson-minnesota-vikings-dealing-hamstring-issueAdrian Peterson has been dealing with his right hamstring injury for four or five weeks, he said on Thursday, but the injury started with a bruise, not a pulled muscle, and the Minnesota Vikings running back said he isn't worried about missing any time.
.
"I feel like it was more in my mind. It's strange to say that, but I think I was kind of holding myself back, not being able to stretch out and really run. I think I was kind of hindering myself. Now that I'm able to be more relaxed and got a clearer mind, I think I'll be able to go out there and roll full-speed."
You said it, brother!Hamstrings matter.
Who would have thought?
It's his line, and Musgrave's play calling that are killing him.Peterson has looked great running right into a brick wall at the LOS for the past few games.
He's got no juice, no pizzazz, no juke. He's plodding.
You said it, brother!Hamstrings matter.
Who would have thought?
Yes, they are.It's his line, and Musgrave's play calling that are killing him.Peterson has looked great running right into a brick wall at the LOS for the past few games.
He's got no juice, no pizzazz, no juke. He's plodding.
You said it, brother!Hamstrings matter.
Who would have thought?
You realize GB has a history of keeping AP contained right?Anxious to check back in to this thread after the Pack game this weekend. I have a feeling those who traded him away might regret that decision.
Not sure if you're being facetious or not, but last year he had 508 yards and 2 TDs against them (3 games). In 2011, he had 226 yards and 2 TDs against them. In 2010, he had 203 yards and a TD against them. I could keep going...You realize GB has a history of keeping AP contained right?Anxious to check back in to this thread after the Pack game this weekend. I have a feeling those who traded him away might regret that decision.
Ha.....You realize GB has a history of keeping AP contained right?Anxious to check back in to this thread after the Pack game this weekend. I have a feeling those who traded him away might regret that decision.
Although this is the best Packers run defense in years.Ha.....You realize GB has a history of keeping AP contained right?Anxious to check back in to this thread after the Pack game this weekend. I have a feeling those who traded him away might regret that decision.
You may want to check your math.....
Yes, since 09', but that's not what I'm addressing now is it?Although this is the best Packers run defense in years.Ha.....You realize GB has a history of keeping AP contained right?Anxious to check back in to this thread after the Pack game this weekend. I have a feeling those who traded him away might regret that decision.
You may want to check your math.....
I did the reverse three weeks ago in a redraft. oof.I did the same thing.After listening to Bloom's podcast "On the Couch" I traded him straight up for Lynch.
Trade what? Lynch? McCoy? Forte? Calvin?If you bail on Peterson, you'll be sorry.
Take a look at the first 6 games last year; 499 yards @ 4.4 ypc and 2 TD's. Then, owners had what appeared to be a legit reason to be concerned about his future. I came really close to unloading him then, too. But he made me glad I hadn't... 1598 yards and 11 TD's over the final 10 games.
Same garbage QB-play, offense, play calling, etc last year and this year.
Trade FOR him. With all this panic, he won't get cheaper.
the reason he is such a great player, and such a great fantasy producer, is bc of his ability to rip off huge runs. those are not outliers. they are indicators of his ability. he does it every year.Define "killing it"?AP is rb7 in my league and was killing it the first 4 games before the bye. the 2 games since the bye have been bad. Seems like an over reaction.
ADP before the bye: 92 rushes, 421 yards, 4.58 ypc. Team average of 28.75ppg.
ADP after the bye: 23 rushes, 90 yards, 3.91ypc. Team average of 8.5ppg
ADP before the bye subtracting his runs over 20 yards: 89 rushes, 247 yards, 2.77ypc
So there you have it... take away just 3 of his rushes on the season? And he's now averaging nearly 2ypc less than he is with those 3 runs. I'm not saying you can just ignore them, they did happen. But statistics tell us outliers shouldn't be ignored when evaluating situations like these. He had 3 monster runs and otherwise has done jack all season. And now the team is in turmoil and they're putting up 20 less PPG then they were going into the bye. So now you can't expect him to get 2-3 goal line opportunities a game. At this point AP's value is contingent on him breaking monster runs every week.
Hell, technically? He's running even BETTER now than he was prior to the bye. 3.91ypc vs 2.77ypc
I like Ponder coming back but that was terrible with Freeman under center and if that returns...@ Bloom suggesting to bail on Peterson. Seems like a significant overreaction
So stupid. In a year with so many underperforming RBS what other Rb would you rather have aside from maybe Charles?@ Bloom suggesting to bail on Peterson. Seems like a significant overreaction
Wrong. the OL was playing much much better. He was intentionally underused to ease him back from his ACL surgery. The Vikings were playing with a ton of fight and the game scripts were still good for a RB.If you bail on Peterson, you'll be sorry.
Take a look at the first 6 games last year; 499 yards @ 4.4 ypc and 2 TD's. Then, owners had what appeared to be a legit reason to be concerned about his future. I came really close to unloading him then, too. But he made me glad I hadn't... 1598 yards and 11 TD's over the final 10 games.
Same garbage QB-play, offense, play calling, etc last year and this year.
Trade FOR him. With all this panic, he won't get cheaper.
Forte McCoy Bush and Lynch.So stupid. In a year with so many underperforming RBS what other Rb would you rather have aside from maybe Charles?@ Bloom suggesting to bail on Peterson. Seems like a significant overreaction
If they are smart enough to take their loss of 3M and just not play Freeman again, maybe it gets slightly better. But Ponder has been so bad that they signed Freeman...I like Ponder coming back but that was terrible with Freeman under center and if that returns...@ Bloom suggesting to bail on Peterson. Seems like a significant overreaction
seems like a significant underreaction to watch the last two MIN games and think everything is going to be ok with AD@ Bloom suggesting to bail on Peterson. Seems like a significant overreaction
IMO this is a player and situation where you let the ebb and flow play out. Agree to disagree I guessseems like a significant underreaction to watch the last two MIN games and think everything is going to be ok with AD@ Bloom suggesting to bail on Peterson. Seems like a significant overreaction
the player is hurt and the situation might be the worst in the entire league. If he has another bad game you won't be able to make a lateral move to an EQUAL RB1. Folks, I'm not advocating selling Peterson for pennies on the dollar. I LOVE Peterson, but at some point you have to accept that it's not a good thing for your RB1 and centerpiece of your team to have every single external factor working against him.IMO this is a player and situation where you let the ebb and flow play out. Agree to disagree I guessseems like a significant underreaction to watch the last two MIN games and think everything is going to be ok with AD@ Bloom suggesting to bail on Peterson. Seems like a significant overreaction
Bloom - AP had 328 rushing yards, 7 receptions, 35 receiving yards and 3TDs in 3 games with Ponder this year. I respect your prognostications, but take a deep breath. Everything is going to be ooookkkk.If they are smart enough to take their loss of 3M and just not play Freeman again, maybe it gets slightly better. But Ponder has been so bad that they signed Freeman...I like Ponder coming back but that was terrible with Freeman under center and if that returns...@ Bloom suggesting to bail on Peterson. Seems like a significant overreaction
Full participant in practice today. He said he injured the leg "4-5 weeks" ago. Well, that would be the start of the season, and he looked just fine with Ponder under center those first 3 games. As "terrible" as the situation was with Ponder, they averaged 30 ppg with him as a starter this year.the player is hurt and the situation might be the worst in the entire league. If he has another bad game you won't be able to make a lateral move to an EQUAL RB1. Folks, I'm not advocating selling Peterson for pennies on the dollar. I LOVE Peterson, but at some point you have to accept that it's not a good thing for your RB1 and centerpiece of your team to have every single external factor working against him.IMO this is a player and situation where you let the ebb and flow play out. Agree to disagree I guessseems like a significant underreaction to watch the last two MIN games and think everything is going to be ok with AD@ Bloom suggesting to bail on Peterson. Seems like a significant overreaction
The Vikings were in those games from beginning to end. The OL was opening holes. The team didn't look morose and uninterested in playing hard.Bloom - AP had 328 rushing yards, 7 receptions, 35 receiving yards and 3TDs in 3 games with Ponder this year. I respect your prognostications, but take a deep breath. Everything is going to be ooookkkk.If they are smart enough to take their loss of 3M and just not play Freeman again, maybe it gets slightly better. But Ponder has been so bad that they signed Freeman...I like Ponder coming back but that was terrible with Freeman under center and if that returns...@ Bloom suggesting to bail on Peterson. Seems like a significant overreaction
He's hurt sorta like Calvin was hurt two weeks agothe player is hurt and the situation might be the worst in the entire league. If he has another bad game you won't be able to make a lateral move to an EQUAL RB1. Folks, I'm not advocating selling Peterson for pennies on the dollar. I LOVE Peterson, but at some point you have to accept that it's not a good thing for your RB1 and centerpiece of your team to have every single external factor working against him.IMO this is a player and situation where you let the ebb and flow play out. Agree to disagree I guessseems like a significant underreaction to watch the last two MIN games and think everything is going to be ok with AD@ Bloom suggesting to bail on Peterson. Seems like a significant overreaction
Sorry man, but you are way over analyzing this one. AP is the greatest RB of his era in his absolute prime. He's going to finish the season strong. In my biggest money league, AP is currently the 8th best RB. I will bet whatever you're willing to bet, that AP finishes better than he has started. I guess the simplest way to measure this would be PPG ROS.Forte McCoy Bush and Lynch.So stupid. In a year with so many underperforming RBS what other Rb would you rather have aside from maybe Charles?@ Bloom suggesting to bail on Peterson. Seems like a significant overreaction
I Love Peterson, but if you are being honest with yourself about what he has to overcome, you are going against the grain if you expect to be top 5 from here on out. He has barely been an RB2 the last two weeks
Agree that these external factors.....QB carousel, hamstring, O-line troubles, death of son have turned into the worst of circumstances for AP, but the storm is passing. If I could get Charles or McCoy for AP, I probably would, but I can't and I think trading him for Forte, Bush, or possibly Lacy is selling him short.He's hurt sorta like Calvin was hurt two weeks agothe player is hurt and the situation might be the worst in the entire league. If he has another bad game you won't be able to make a lateral move to an EQUAL RB1. Folks, I'm not advocating selling Peterson for pennies on the dollar. I LOVE Peterson, but at some point you have to accept that it's not a good thing for your RB1 and centerpiece of your team to have every single external factor working against him.IMO this is a player and situation where you let the ebb and flow play out. Agree to disagree I guessseems like a significant underreaction to watch the last two MIN games and think everything is going to be ok with AD@ Bloom suggesting to bail on Peterson. Seems like a significant overreaction
As for situation and game script..I would argue that what we've seen the past two weeks is just about the absolute worst it could possibly be for AD. If the defense plays slightly better or their QB improves and gets the offense more balanced then he will be right back in the top 2-3 rbs.
Appreciate the feedback Bloom
Agreed. I tried to offer AP and Tannehill for McCoy today and no go. Owners who know what is going on are not trading an elite RB1 for Peterson straight up. That sounds like a lovely idea, but it isn't going to happen. And I agree about trading AP for Forte, Bush and Lacy is selling him short. Granted, Bloom said to get Lacy + a WR1 for AP, but I can't see how an owner ever would be willing to do this. I'd imagine that if you are in a league with other knowledgable owners, you're stuck with AP to keep plugging him into your lineup unless YOU are the one giving up an asset along with AP to get another RB1.agent orange said:Agree that these external factors.....QB carousel, hamstring, O-line troubles, death of son have turned into the worst of circumstances for AP, but the storm is passing. If I could get Charles or McCoy for AP, I probably would, but I can't and I think trading him for Forte, Bush, or possibly Lacy is selling him short.maf005 said:He's hurt sorta like Calvin was hurt two weeks agoSigmund Bloom said:the player is hurt and the situation might be the worst in the entire league. If he has another bad game you won't be able to make a lateral move to an EQUAL RB1. Folks, I'm not advocating selling Peterson for pennies on the dollar. I LOVE Peterson, but at some point you have to accept that it's not a good thing for your RB1 and centerpiece of your team to have every single external factor working against him.maf005 said:IMO this is a player and situation where you let the ebb and flow play out. Agree to disagree I guessSigmund Bloom said:seems like a significant underreaction to watch the last two MIN games and think everything is going to be ok with ADmaf005 said:@ Bloom suggesting to bail on Peterson. Seems like a significant overreaction
As for situation and game script..I would argue that what we've seen the past two weeks is just about the absolute worst it could possibly be for AD. If the defense plays slightly better or their QB improves and gets the offense more balanced then he will be right back in the top 2-3 rbs.
Appreciate the feedback Bloom
Huh? He has historically dominated GB (2 games). Washington can't stop my grandmother. Neither can Philly or Chicago. Baltimore D is average and their offense sucks do they will be in the game. Dallas has been mediocre against good RBs. Heck, Seattle and Cincy are the ONLY tough matchups. I take it you're a glass half empty type of fellow...Sigmund Bloom said:The Vikings were in those games from beginning to end. The OL was opening holes. The team didn't look morose and uninterested in playing hard. The schedule is also not going to help here:Mash said:Bloom - AP had 328 rushing yards, 7 receptions, 35 receiving yards and 3TDs in 3 games with Ponder this year. I respect your prognostications, but take a deep breath. Everything is going to be ooookkkk.Sigmund Bloom said:If they are smart enough to take their loss of 3M and just not play Freeman again, maybe it gets slightly better. But Ponder has been so bad that they signed Freeman...SaintsInDome2006 said:I like Ponder coming back but that was terrible with Freeman under center and if that returns...maf005 said:@ Bloom suggesting to bail on Peterson. Seems like a significant overreaction
GB @DAL WAS @SEA @GB CHI @BAL PHI @CIN
Instead of having blind faith in Peterson to overcome all of these factors working against him, why not turn him into an elite RB1 with some factors actually working in their factor, in addition to outstanding talent. I'm surprised that this is being met with so much resistance.
I hear what you're saying, but Peterson was great last year (even after Harvin was out for the year) and the situation wasn't great then either. Ponder sucked last year as well.Sigmund Bloom said:The Vikings were in those games from beginning to end. The OL was opening holes. The team didn't look morose and uninterested in playing hard.Mash said:Bloom - AP had 328 rushing yards, 7 receptions, 35 receiving yards and 3TDs in 3 games with Ponder this year. I respect your prognostications, but take a deep breath. Everything is going to be ooookkkk.Sigmund Bloom said:If they are smart enough to take their loss of 3M and just not play Freeman again, maybe it gets slightly better. But Ponder has been so bad that they signed Freeman...SaintsInDome2006 said:I like Ponder coming back but that was terrible with Freeman under center and if that returns...maf005 said:@ Bloom suggesting to bail on Peterson. Seems like a significant overreaction
The schedule is also not going to help here:
GB @DAL WAS @SEA @GB CHI @BAL PHI @CIN
Instead of having blind faith in Peterson to overcome all of these factors working against him, why not turn him into an elite RB1 with some factors actually working in their factor, in addition to outstanding talent. I'm surprised that this is being met with so much resistance.
Could see a big run or so with the depleted LB corps of the Packers.Anxious to check back in to this thread after the Pack game this weekend. I have a feeling those who traded him away might regret that decision.