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AL Cy Young Race (1 Viewer)

I think what bullpen arms like Miller do, being called upon to get out of jams against the best bats the opposition offers no matter the inning, is more meaningful than saves. 

 
Britton tied with Kluber for third on the Bill James list, behind Happ and Porcello.  He has Francisco Rodriquez ahead of Verlander and just behind Sale and Hamels.  Neat list. 

 
Bill James to his research team:  Come up with a formula that makes Rick Porcello look like the best pitcher in baseball

Research team: Unpossible...well...unless we make wins per/9 a category and also give a lot of extra value to saves.  But we can't give too much weight to K's, it's gonna be tough. 

Bill James:  How high is Francisco Rodriguez going to be? 

Research team:  Top ten

Bill James: I'm sure no one will notice, do it. 

 
As opposed to Doctor Detroit's secret formula that makes Justin Verlander a more worthwhile candidate than Rick Porcello - which is apparently have one player wear a Red Sox hat, and the other a Tiger hat. With perhaps the added ingredient that the Red Sox player is a former Tiger.

 
the moops said:
As opposed to Doctor Detroit's secret formula that makes Justin Verlander a more worthwhile candidate than Rick Porcello - which is apparently have one player wear a Red Sox hat, and the other a Tiger hat. With perhaps the added ingredient that the Red Sox player is a former Tiger.
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If only you were born with a sense of humor. 

Thanks for posting the James link, great stuff there gb.  :thumbup:   :franciscoforcy:

 
I kinda chuckled.

But anyway, I think we all know that the winner will be someone that has easily explained greatness that idiot writers can point to. 

Kluber leading his team to the division title. Porcello winning 21 games. Verlander turning back the clock. Sale overcoming throwback jersey rage.

 
MAC_32 said:
I think what bullpen arms like Miller do, being called upon to get out of jams against the best bats the opposition offers no matter the inning, is more meaningful than saves. 
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this would normally be a decent argument, but Britton has the highest WPA (Win Probability Added) of any pitcher in baseball this year. He's been used in plenty of high-leverage situations.

 
pandora said:
Good, but not up there with the 43 saves and 0.61 ERA.

I still think if Britton can get to 50 saves and keep his ERA right where it is, he has to be in the conversation.
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:goalpost move:

 
Can't remember what game I was watching, but one of the ESPN guys said during a Saturday broadcast that Britton should be in the conversation for MVP, but not Cy Young. Dead silence in the booth for a few moments after that.

 
pantagrapher said:
Can't remember what game I was watching, but one of the ESPN guys said during a Saturday broadcast that Britton should be in the conversation for MVP, but not Cy Young. Dead silence in the booth for a few moments after that.
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MVP definitely not, but for Cy Young, he should be.

 
Doctor Detroit said:
Porcello was pretty awesome tonight
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Kind of turning into his to lose IMO. The K/9 isn't jawdropping, but the rest of his Post ASB numbers are just sick.

10-2, averaging over 7.5 innings per outing. ERA around 2.40, WHIP under 0.80. Opposing batter's OPS is around .525 

 
Kinda crazy that his underlying numbers are similar to last year, when he had a 4.92 ERA. His xFIP was actually better last year (3.72) than this year (3.89).

His HR rate has decreased, but his GB% has also decreased. He only walks just over 1.29 per 9, which is obviously driving a lot of this, but that's not far off his 1.99 of last year.

Baseball - such an awesome, weird sport

 
I kinda chuckled when his last two outs were warning track fly outs, but overall a very impressive performance.  I don't think it's over, but JV or Kluber will need to do some impressive things in their final 2 or 3 starts.

 
jon_mx said:
Doctor Detroit said:
JV just took the lead in ERA, .01 behind him in WHIP, and has 60+ more Ks on his way to yet another strike out crown.  
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I think Justin pitched better.  But only pitcher with 20+ wins on top of leading team to division title will get the votes.
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I tend to agree but I don't think wins are as important as they were in 1990.  That said they are a great tiebreaker, so I guess it depends on wins vs K's and I agree voters are gonna go with wins.  Still, it's either JV or Porcello now.  

 
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Yea, I think, unfortunately, wins and team performance weigh more heavily than strikeouts. Should be a close race, but with Porcello winning 22+ games and the Sox going on a ridiculous end of the year run to cruise to the division, well, it probably will not be as close as it should be

 
Sanchez moves ahead of both to take the AL ERA lead. Highest winning percentage in the AL and lowest HR/9. I know he's not winning but damn he's been good.

 
Northern Voice said:
Sanchez moves ahead of both to take the AL ERA lead. Highest winning percentage in the AL and lowest HR/9. I know he's not winning but damn he's been good.
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Not that it matters, but I think if Fulmer goes 6 1/3 innings in his last start, he will win the ERA title. Unless, of course, he gets bombed in those innings.

 
whoknew said:
Not that it matters, but I think if Fulmer goes 6 1/3 innings in his last start, he will win the ERA title. Unless, of course, he gets bombed in those innings.
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Yeah, he's been great too. Has the math been worked out on what keeps his ERA under 3.06? I know he needs 6 1/3, I'd assume probably 4 runs or less in those innings does it for him but 5+ may not. 

Do tie breaker games count in regular season stats? Wild card game is a playoff game, right? You could see a Tiger (Verlander, Fulmer) or Oriole (Button) in the Cy Young mix in game 163.

 
whoknew said:
Not that it matters, but I think if Fulmer goes 6 1/3 innings in his last start, he will win the ERA title. Unless, of course, he gets bombed in those innings.
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3 runs over 6-1/3 will put Fulmer at an even 3.00 ERA.  Could be around 2.83 if he allows 0 runs over 6-1/3.  So it will take a solid outing for him to win it. 

 
Britton with #47, ERA down to 0.55. Every time he pitches now the Orioles' season is literally on the line and he keeps coming through 

 
Northern Voice said:
:confused:  The discussion in here lately has been Britton, Porcello, Verlander, Sanchez, Fulmer, Kluber.

Boston, Cleveland and Toronto (and Texas if your post is really about Hamels) all have similar park factors. Baltimore and Detroit are a bit lower but nothing drastic.
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short term (even one year) park factors are susceptible to small sample size errors.  also I'm always wary of any "advanced" calculations ESPN tries to perform.  these are the PF I look at - Boston is a good bit ahead of the Indians and Tigers there.

 
Fenway elevates runs fairly consistently 10-20%. Detroit is neutral at best.

I would hope that would break the "tie", rather than Wins.

 
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