Auction Draft question about over paying (1 Viewer)

[Jojo the circus boy]

So my 16 team league has our auction draft tonight.

Every single year owners are overpaying for QB's. I typically end up gobbling up tier 1 RB's and WR's while this is going on. Getting 2QB's in the 15-20 range and playing QB roulette and often losing each week.

But my question is if you have a $200 budget and you have a value for QB1 at $88

and a value of QB10 at $13:

Would you rather overpay for QB1 by $9 ($97) or overpay QB10 by $9 ($20)?

 

[FallenHero32]

QB1 is only a 10% markup, while QB10 is a 100% markup. But, QB1 is taking up nearly half of your budget, and unless he is going to be putting up half of your points every week, I'd rather take the QB10 and let my budget be a bit more flexible.

 

[ImTheScientist]

QB10, QB11 (take them both if you are not comfortable)....they are better then spending half your money on QB1.

 

[mental]

Overspending should be the same in principle wherever you do it. Fundamentally, you're trying to spend your money on "fantasy points over replacement" so if you budget correctly (and project correctly!) you're indifferent as to where you spend those dollars.

In practice you need to ask yourself why you're losing games with your current approach. If everyone else is beating you with good QB play, are you sure you're valuing QBs correctly?

 

[LawFitz]

Good tiering of players can help you steer through an auction, but otherwise, every one of them has a life of its own. Some, it's better if you wait to spend, others it's not. No matter what I always tell myself I have to come out of it with at least one or two round 1-2 type players.

I'll try for more when I'm confident in my late auction value plays, like McGahee and Ced Benson and the like for about $2 each to pair with a Ray Rice early.

 

[meyerj31]

Maybe you're losing each week because you aren't picking the right RB/WRs, and not because you didn't spend a stupid amount of money on a QB.

As far as spending half your budget on a QB ... depends on the scoring format and what you are using as your VBD baseline. I input some basic criteria for a 16-teamer and I'm not getting more than $60 for Rodgers.

If I was in that league I would be getting some QBs cheap and getting value for the rest of my starters. I have much more success going against the current in auction drafts. I find the top 16 WRs generally go for much more than their worth ($30+ each) and QBs go for more than they should (5 Qbs went for $40+ in my last auction draft), so I loaded up on upside low-WR2s for $15 each, got two stud RBs and a stud TE.

Just because something hasn't worked the last 9 times out of 10 doesn't mean it's not the right approach. Any one fantasy team can have a tremendous amount of variance depending on which heads-up matchup you get every week. I had a league last year where 4 straight weeks I had the second highest score but lost to the highest scoring team.

 

[GregR]

Assuming you did a good job setting your prices, and assuming all other things are equal, then from strictly a dollars vs fantasy points standpoint, it doesn't matter. I know it might be tempting to say "I'd rather not pay 100% over the price of a player when I can instead pay 10% over the price of another".

But look at it like this. Let's say you have your $200 cap and spend $170 on starters. And either way, every other player you got exactly at your price, and you spent every penny of your starter money. In both cases you got the same number of value points for $169, and "wasted" $9.

So that leaves us with the other aspects that the numbers don't handle directly, or where those assumptions of all other things being equal aren't true. Like... if you had to overpay for QB11, do you feel the need to take a backup QB much earlier, and do you overpay for the backup more than for the worse QB backup you'd be fine with if you had QB1? Or do you think there will be a lot of good values amongst upper tier WRs so you'd rather have the money free to use on them instead? Which of course would just depend on your exact circumstances.

 

[Run It Up]

Can I vote to spend 15 dollars combined between two QBs instead of either of those terrible options.

 

[The Dude]

I would suggest that you take a QB just not the highest one. At some point (maybe the 4th or 5th QB) you should be spending close to value - without overspending.

 

[RUSF18]

Draft all those studs and potential studs, get decent QB play, and make a trade when there's a situation you can take advantage of (either injury, emergence of another team's backup QB, etc).

 

[The Dude]

Another point, if you have established a value of $88 for QB1, you are probably wrong by 10% either way (and possibly way more) - don't get stuck on your exact number.

It sounds like each week, you are giving up a ton of points at QB and hoping to get back in the game by making up points at other positions. The problem is the disparity in QB's is not being made up in the disparity at other positions.

I suggest you give up some cash and get a mid-lelve QB that may outperform. Vick, Romo is undervalued right now, P.Manning, Rivers are possibles.

 

[Jojo the circus boy]

As far as spending half your budget on a QB ... depends on the scoring format and what you are using as your VBD baseline. I input some basic criteria for a 16-teamer and I'm not getting more than $60 for Rodgers.

FWIW - 16 team league 16 rounds, start QB, 2xRB, 3xWR, 1xTE, 1xFlex (RB/WR/TE), 1xDT, 1xPK - NO PPR, ALL TD's 6, -3 ints/fumbles - standard scoring for the rest - $200 auction budget, top QB values: $88, 78, 64, 57, 31...

Assuming you did a good job setting your prices, and assuming all other things are equal, then from strictly a dollars vs fantasy points standpoint, it doesn't matter. I know it might be tempting to say "I'd rather not pay 100% over the price of a player when I can instead pay 10% over the price of another".

But look at it like this. Let's say you have your $200 cap and spend $170 on starters. And either way, every other player you got exactly at your price, and you spent every penny of your starter money. In both cases you got the same number of value points for $169, and "wasted" $9.

So that leaves us with the other aspects that the numbers don't handle directly, or where those assumptions of all other things being equal aren't true. Like... if you had to overpay for QB11, do you feel the need to take a backup QB much earlier, and do you overpay for the backup more than for the worse QB backup you'd be fine with if you had QB1? Or do you think there will be a lot of good values amongst upper tier WRs so you'd rather have the money free to use on them instead? Which of course would just depend on your exact circumstances.

You actually bring up a good point in the bold above, the way I interpret this is if I overpay for a Tier 1-2 QB early, I won't have to overpay twice for two middling QB's. Each team takes AT LEAST 2 QB's in this league, so my backup QB if I get a Tier 1-2 will be in the QB18+ range.

 

[Jojo the circus boy]

Can I vote to spend 15 dollars combined between two QBs instead of either of those terrible options.

Last Year I spent $9 on Josh Freeman, $4 on Sanchez, and $3 for Colt McCoy (only $100 budget for last year's auction).$15 would probably get you the likes of two of: Flacco, Alex Smith, or Jake Locker.

 

[Run It Up]

Can I vote to spend 15 dollars combined between two QBs instead of either of those terrible options.

Last Year I spent $9 on Josh Freeman, $4 on Sanchez, and $3 for Colt McCoy (only $100 budget for last year's auction).$15 would probably get you the likes of two of: Flacco, Alex Smith, or Jake Locker.

I was thinking Rivers ~10-12, Fitzpatrick 3.Or Cutler, Palmer, Fitzpatrick.

 

[Jojo the circus boy]

Can I vote to spend 15 dollars combined between two QBs instead of either of those terrible options.

Last Year I spent $9 on Josh Freeman, $4 on Sanchez, and $3 for Colt McCoy (only $100 budget for last year's auction).$15 would probably get you the likes of two of: Flacco, Alex Smith, or Jake Locker.

I was thinking Rivers ~10-12, Fitzpatrick 3.Or Cutler, Palmer, Fitzpatrick.

Here's where I expect those guys to go:$26 Rivers (wouldn't even be surprised to seem he go higher since I have in at QB8)$10-12 Cutler$4-5 Pamer, Fitzpatrick

 

[Jimbo Slice]

I got Vick for $16. Slight panic when I realized I had Vick. Bought schaub for $3. I'll be ok but that sure wasn't the plan.

Rodgers 33, Brady 31, brees 33, cam 26 for reference.

 

[Run It Up]

Can I vote to spend 15 dollars combined between two QBs instead of either of those terrible options.

Last Year I spent $9 on Josh Freeman, $4 on Sanchez, and $3 for Colt McCoy (only $100 budget for last year's auction).$15 would probably get you the likes of two of: Flacco, Alex Smith, or Jake Locker.

I was thinking Rivers ~10-12, Fitzpatrick 3.Or Cutler, Palmer, Fitzpatrick.

Here's where I expect those guys to go:$26 Rivers (wouldn't even be surprised to seem he go higher since I have in at QB8)$10-12 Cutler$4-5 Pamer, Fitzpatrick

Those seem accurate except rivers, his adp is like QB12. In the one auction league I did this year (14 team) I got Peyton ($13), Rivers ($8).

 

[Jojo the circus boy]

Can I vote to spend 15 dollars combined between two QBs instead of either of those terrible options.

Last Year I spent $9 on Josh Freeman, $4 on Sanchez, and $3 for Colt McCoy (only $100 budget for last year's auction).$15 would probably get you the likes of two of: Flacco, Alex Smith, or Jake Locker.

I was thinking Rivers ~10-12, Fitzpatrick 3.Or Cutler, Palmer, Fitzpatrick.

Here's where I expect those guys to go:$26 Rivers (wouldn't even be surprised to seem he go higher since I have in at QB8)$10-12 Cutler$4-5 Pamer, Fitzpatrick

Those seem accurate except rivers, his adp is like QB12. In the one auction league I did this year (14 team) I got Peyton ($13), Rivers ($8).

I blame the wacky scoring in my league, -3 for ints and fumbles adds up quick. FBG Projections have Rivers with 0 fumbles whereas the Mannings have (5, 6) which essentially inflates Rivers value by about 3 TD's.

 

[Jojo the circus boy]

wow, can't always trust drafting trends.

What I ended up with...in my 16 teamer auction:

paid (value)

QB

62 (88) - Rodgers

1 (1) - Tannehill

RB

75 (98) Foster

8 (13) Kev Smith

4 (8) RaJennings

1 (1) BrJackson

1 (1) JaRinger

WR

26 (38) Cruz

7 (14) Holmes

2 (4) LaRobinson

1 (1) Hartline

1 (1) StSmith (STL)

TE

8 (3) Witten

DT

1 (1) Chargers

1 (1) Saints

PK

1 (2) Prater

QB's 1-4 were values, 5 thru 17 grossly overpaid (2-3x value prices)

RB's 1-12 were values, 13 thru 30 were mostly overpaid

WR's were pretty much values across the board, Megatron went for 47 compared to 81 value, I had the funds, but I think I did ok with Cruz and filling out the rest of the team

TE's all overpaid

Kickers all overpaid

Defenses, top 14 all overpaid (two went for $10)

 

[Ahmad Rashad]

wow, can't always trust drafting trends.What I ended up with...in my 16 teamer auctionaid (value)QB62 (88) - Rodgers1 (1) - TannehillRB75 (98) Foster8 (13) Kev Smith4 (8) RaJennings1 (1) BrJackson1 (1) JaRingerWR 26 (38) Cruz7 (14) Holmes2 (4) LaRobinson1 (1) Hartline1 (1) StSmith (STL)TE8 (3) WittenDT 1 (1) Chargers1 (1) SaintsPK1 (2) PraterQB's 1-4 were values, 5 thru 17 grossly overpaid (2-3x value prices)RB's 1-12 were values, 13 thru 30 were mostly overpaidWR's were pretty much values across the board, Megatron went for 47 compared to 81 value, I had the funds, but I think I did ok with Cruz and filling out the rest of the teamTE's all overpaidKickers all overpaidDefenses, top 14 all overpaid (two went for $10)

For a 16-team league, that's a great team. Your edge at QB and RB1 should lead you to victory against most teams, as long as they stay healthy.As for the original question, it depends on how much you'd have to pay for the other options at QB. If you could have gotten Cutler for $10-12 but would have had to overpay by almost that much for the other QB's, I'd go with Cutler and a good backup and load up on the other positions. It turns out you got great value for Rodgers instead, which is the best way to go -- I'm surprised with so many wanting to go upside-down this year that nobody went way higher on him. I always bid up to a good value on all the different levels of QB rather than going in with a fixed target, and it sounds like you did the same to get the value on Rodgers.Getting great value on the top players is how you dominate an auction league, but in most auctions you'd have to overpay for the top players, especially QB this year.

 

[Jojo the circus boy]

Thanks, here's how the top 15 QB's shook out, and you obviously would not know this when bidding on the first QB put on the auction block:

1 Aaron Rodgers (01.03) GB/10 62

2 Drew Brees (01.08) NO/6 55

3 Tom Brady (01.05) NE/9 50

4 Matthew Stafford (01.11) Det/5 51

5 Cam Newton (01.16) Car/6 37

6 Matt Ryan (03.08) Atl/7 41

7 Tony Romo (04.08) Dal/5 29

8 Philip Rivers (04.11) SD/7 29

9 Eli Manning (03.09) NYG/11 31

10 Michael Vick (03.12) Phi/7 37

11 Peyton Manning (04.03) Den/7 26

12 Robert Griffin III (05.15) Was/10 21

13 Ben Roethlisberger (05.16) Pit/4 21

14 Jay Cutler (06.05) Chi/6 21

15 Matt Schaub (06.06) Hou/8 23

16 Joe Flacco (08.02) Bal/8 16

My previous estimates corrected:$29 $26 Rivers (wouldn't even be surprised to seem him go higher since I have him at QB8)

$21 $10-12 Cutler

$4-5 Palmer, Fitzpatrick

$7 Palmer

$10 Fitzpatrick (8 of the team owners live in Canada - go figure they are Bills fans)