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But I think that the settings of the league and roster size are going to make a big difference. For instance, I am in a 2 QB league and I think that it should drastically change the way that QBs are valued.
Of course that makes a huge difference. That's why I said if its a standard $200 league to use yahoo and ESPN's values. If it's a new league AND it has non-standard rules, then you're on your own.
That was his original point...FBG needs to step it up and either sync their tools or create one that generates accurate, customizable auction values for cheat sheets. For a site this size with a yearly subscription fee, I find it odd. The "cheatsheets" section on the front page always seems way off each season.
I just finished an auction where I took the exact same strategy. 10 team non-ppr, so clearly more shallow than your league, but I went the 2 stud RB route.
Love your team. Romo (and Cutler) both went for like $16 already, so I ended up passing on them. Still, there are so many QBs I'm confident I'll get one reasonably cheap and one for $1. You got Gronk cheap too.
Thanks! It's definitely important to get a cheap QB in that scenario. Even after the top 12 + Romo, there's still Kaep, Wilson, Roethlisberger with more no-huddle. Hopefully you land one at a great value.
this is a great point. I typically will go through last years draft and apply those prices to the players at this years adp. I do this for each position as well and avg the number out. It gives me a good range of where i expect guys should go for. There is also a good tool on reddit that will give you auction values based on fantasypros avg projections. Its elbobertos or bobertos. Check it out
Why do you say you don't get to bid? Because you may have used up too many dollars by the time they come up?
I actually think the exact opposite. It seems insane to me to walk into a draft saying "I want to spend $12 on a QB". Well what happens if Peyton goes for $19...do you really want to handcuff yourself like that and pass on him because you only budgeted $12 for the position? This is the quickest way to ruin your draft IMO...the key to an auction is to be flexible and draft guys that are going for less than their value.
What if the only QB you can get at $12 is Eli Manning?
I think QBs might work a little different than RBs & WRs.
I'm thinking about trying this in my auction on Sunday. Seems like WRs and TEs are very deep, and I'm positive I can find a decent QB at a low price. I've never tried to go this extreme before, so I think it might be fun to see if I can pull it off. Might settle for a Murray instead of another top 5 guy if it doesn't work. I just don't like that 2nd and 3rd tier of RBs all that much, other than Murray and maybe Lynch.
At any position, you need to recognize what is going on in your auction and adjust... your values don't mean squat if they leave you without a competitive starting lineup because you refuse to pay more.
If Eli is the only QB I could get with the 12 I wanted to spend, then I did a really poor job establishing my budget. The budget I set comes with a reasonable expectation that I could get a QB1 at that price. RB is a little different, but I am flexible enough to adjust.
I'm in a high stakes auction as we speak, and this is sort of how my team has turned out. I did get value, but the team just does not jump out at me.
Yeah, getting so many in the 28-48 range is great, but if the 17 was somewhere 1-12 instead, it would probably stand out. Sounds like you were able to salvage the draft by landing a ton of those midrange guys. Probably the only way to salvage it once all the studs are gone.Pumpnick said:
The one thing I see a lot (which I do not agree with ) are people going for one more last "nice" player instead of a few lower level players that could really help round their team. Say for instance a team has $24 left with 7 slots to fill, going for an $18 player followed by 6 $1 purchases.
I've played in a similar league for 10+ years. Depends on who your keepers are.RUSF18 said:
Well, did my first auction today. I was pretty good on the values for QB and WR (though the top 8 all went over). Pretty much all starting RBs went about 33% over what I was expecting.
This is exactly what our league does, we limit the keepers to $75 allowed to be kept with $5 added to a players value every year ($200 league). So if say Payton was drafted for $30 last year the owner could keep him for $35 (keeping a max amount of $75 worth of players). This usually means top tier guys go back into the pool and lower or mid tier guys are kept. That being said Charles went for $68, Shady $65 and Forte for $60. Prices tend to not get to out of whack as the vast majority of teams have only between $125-$160 to start with and still need to fill a roster....RUSF18 said:
Heck this seems like good food for thought.[SIZE=10.5pt]I have been doing one auction league and one snake league for several years now, and the prep process for auctions is much more rewarding. Some things I have learned based on various FBG / numberfire articles and my own auction experiences:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]1) Make sure you get some elite players (duh)[/SIZE]
The game ultimately comes down to having an advantage over your opponents at several positions. Knowing which players will be elite isn't a certainty, and that's the game. MT's strategy above is to give up the 1st round pick for a few 3rd rounders...league size will have some influence here, but I think you need those studs.
[SIZE=10.5pt]While one of your goals is to capitalize on undervalued assets, you also need a relatively consistent, predictable anchor for your team. I find it hard to win without a 1st round pick even if you acquire three 3rd round picks. Sure, you may guess right on the Antonio Browns of 2014, but why make yourself guess on 3 of them? [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]The elite group of WRs (based on pre-season ADP) tends to see less turnover than the same group of RBs. However, the elite RBs tend to outperform their peers more greatly than the elite WRs vs. their own peers. Again, knowing which guys will be "elite" is the entire game, so it's your choice which position to invest in, but I advocate for buying some pre-season studs. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]2) [/SIZE] Inflation occurs during the draft
[SIZE=10.5pt]Participants don't really know the market price for a tier of players until the market actually sets it (whether you agree with the market is a different issue), so you could see huge inflation relative to your pre-determined auction values. If your league website lists Peterson at $59 and you value him at $63, will he go for $59, $62 or $70? Whatever it is, you can then expect McCoy/Charles to follow suit as the market is anchored to that price (although this obviously won’t continue forever – people won’t anchor the price of every RB to the first stud that goes, but it will certainly impact players in his tier).[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]I'm ok with overpaying for guys as long as other players in the same tier are equivalent. I'm getting the same value as the other owners for the same price, and while some other guy will likely have a better shot at nabbing those "value" picks later on, they probably won't have the studs (and again, imo, you should buy at least one anchor)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]3) Don’t value players, value tiers … and know which tiers you are targeting[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]While you obviously need an idea of which players to invest in (who will bust / breakout, who is under/overvalued, etc.), you should have a strong sense of budget allocation based on which positions you want to invest in. For example, I value RBs heavily in my small league (standard ESPN 10-team non-PPR), so I want to invest in elite RBs, wait on QB/TE, and just pick off value at WR. In my larger 16-team league, I’m much more open to drafting a QB/TE early, but will still wait on WR. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]My small-league board is a work in progress, but currently looks like: [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]QB - 2[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]RB - 60[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]RB - 40[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]WR - 20[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]WR - 13[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]FLEX - 25 (RB)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]TE - 3[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]PK / DEF - 1[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Bench – 5 (RB4)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Total: $170[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]I budget 80% of my $200 (i.e., $180) to my starters plus RB4 (assuming I take RB3 as Flex). The remaining 20% goes to my other 6 bench spots. A tip from another FBG in last season's thread was to use a slush fund, which is why I only budget $170 + $20 out of the $200. I can increase any of the above values by up to $10 with no recalculating necessary, which allows me to be flexible on the spot. I don’t know if McCoy will go for $58 or $65, but I’m covered both ways. If Michael Floyd then goes for $16 instead of $12, I’m also still good. I’m not valuing those individual players, I’m valuing the tier they sit in.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]4) Dont bank on drafting any one individual player [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]All it takes is two teams for the price of Andre Ellington to hit an amount which sucks the value out of the pick. Also, there is usually that one ultra-conservative team who ultimately fails to buy a stud and then overspends greatly on those “mid-round value picks”.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Plenty of other ideas, but that's a good spot to start[/SIZE]
I'd love to see his full roster. One Flex? Decent quality league? Interesting to see his WR's. Should've gotten a decent TE late I'd think.
I was trying to keep it non-AC which is why I just painted the picture of the available money in the league and limited it to teams who needed an RB1 (probably 5 in my league).
The top player available in our auction league always goes for about 40-45% of total budget (30 players kept). For Charles, depending on your keeper rules, he'd be going 50-55%.
I ended up getting Charles at $124 (of $300) or 41% of total budget. For comparison, Marshawn Lynch went for $104 and Arian Foster went for $72 right after.
This is something I noticed in mock auctions as well. When a second tier player gets nominated before the first tier, everyone freezes and dont really know how to react. Only downside I see is that everyone has the funds to drive the price up as well if they feel the players is going below market price.
not only that but you never know if you could of had him cheaper like $3 later because everyone ran out of money. in addition if someone really like ryan he could have been bidded up
Ryan is the QB i'm targetting, I have the 2nd nomination so I'm tempted to try your strategy out.... I'm hoping to spend less than $10 for a low end QB1... thanks for the idea
I should qualify that the cap in the league I was referring to is $100. Ryan for $7 in that league would translate to about $14 in a standard $200 league.
for a basic auction plan, this is absolutely the best. if you don't want to spend the time to create a fully fleshed out auction big board so you know when you are getting value and have a detailed plan of attack go with this strategy as it gets you 80% of the way to a great auctionVicktimized said:
