Bell Cow Delight (1 Viewer)

[mnmplayer]

I hear about the zero RB strategy, etc. etc. but what I don't hear about is what I like to call the double barrel bell cow strategy. Let me qualify that statement in that to attain bell-cow status, you must be getting the carries and also have the skill to retain the carries. It's not enough to be slated to get the carries alone. So some scouting/talent analysis is required for this strategy. With those qualifiers, if you can land two bell cow backs that get the majority of the carries (and have skills to keep the job) you would have a huge advantage over those using split carry backs. In previous seasons this was not possible as the top RBs were going in the first 18-20 picks, but with zero RB strategy gaining in popularity, its now possible to get bell cow backs as late as the 4th round or even 5th rounds, giving you the opportunity to land 1 elite WR  and another top12 WR along with two or three bell cow backs.

Let's list all the bell-cow backs at draft time:

1. Lamar Miller (ADP late 1st, early 2nd)
   
2. Zeke (1st)
   
3. M. Forte (4th to 5th)
   
4. Blount (11th) (We will exclude this bell cow since he could be had for so late and thus would work for ZeroRB strat)
   
5. Gurley (1st)
   
6. D. Murray (5th round)
   
7. L. Bell (also needing to draft Williams early or some other stand in) (late 1st, early 2nd)
   
8. McCoy (late 3rd to early 4th)
   
9. C.J. Anderson (late 3rd or early 4th)
   
10. Hyde (4th)
    
11. D. Johnson (1st)
    
12. Gore (8th) Excluded as this is a probably candidate for ZeroRB strat
    
13. Ingram (late 2nd, early 3rd)
    
14. Crowell (12th to 13th round) We will exclude this bell cow since he could be had for so late and thus would work for ZeroRB strat as well
    
15. AP (1st)
    
16. D. Martin (should be coming back at some point) (3rd)
    

So you could have had 1 green player plus a top 10 WR in the 2nd, plus a top 12-15WR in the 3rd plus an orange player in the 4th/5th.

Or you could have an elite top5 WR in the 1st, 1 blue player or orange in the 2nd, a top12-15 WR in the 3rd plus an orange player in the 4th/5th.

Or you could go elite WR in the 1st, Top10 WR in the 2nd and bell cow backs from the 3rd to 5th rounds.

There are other combinations but you get the idea. I think those teams (aside from AP owners who had red flags with age/usage) who employed this strategy have a huge advantage moving forward. 10+ years ago everyone drafted the top RBs and even the mediocre ones in the first 2 rounds. The Bell Cow delight strategy could not be employed because if you took the RBs early you would miss out on elite WRs and if you grabbed an elite WR early you would not be able to grab two bell cow backs. This year you could couple an elite WR in the first with 2 bell cow backs in the 2nd-5th rounds and also come away with a top10-15 WR to go with the bell cow backs. Smart drafters have a huge advantage with the ZeroRB strategy going mainstream.

Other RBs that could have been perceived as having bell cow status but to be avoided below:

I did not count Gordon (who would have supported the strategy) who has had bell cow touches thus far this season as a bell cow back because he was set to split time with the injured Woodhead so would not have been drafted in that way). Same goes for Christine Michael/Rawls was an avoid with injury and potential split. Eddie Lacy and Devonte Freeman were avoids for me as I foresaw a split or light usage for both. Jamal Charles was an avoid (2nd ACL recovery/age) unless you could pick up in the 4th round and grab Ware so he is not included. Jonathan Stewart (history of non-health) I consider in a time share with Cam Newton, so avoids bell cow status as well. Langford was to be avoided because while he got bell cow status he had a lack of skill (7th round with all the carries). Foster was to be avoided as he has no soft tissue left and is an obvious injury risk with age/history.

When you consider there are now only 11 of the colored bell cow backs from that list left, plus the emergence of Gordon, C. Michael and possibly Jordan Howard, having 2 or more of these backs on your roster is a huge advantage week to week and for trade possibilities. Chances are there are few in the league have 2-3 like yourself as most have just one or less. I am sure there are also some powerful zero RB strategy teams out there too, but that means they hit on their long shot RBs which is a tougher road to hoe than hitting on the blue/orange backs listed above coupled with an elite WR and a top12 WR or the other combinations listed from the Bell Cow Delight strat.

 

[spider321]

Good.

Let these people keep drafting WR's early when there are 1,000 good ones,

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Awesome post btw, thanks.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Next year tell me this in August and not October.

TIA

 

[godgers12]

Usually like to mix it up but in my two biggest redraft leagues, one 500.00 and one 1000.00 buy in I ended up with last pick (one a ten team and one a twelve team) and got Zeke and Lamar Miller on the turn, I am happy I did it in both spots.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Shhhhh.....

Let these people keep drafting WR's when there are 1,000 good ones,

Wtf u talking about most of these bell cows were bargain basement deals

 

[mcd]

Sounds great. You could have gotten OBJ, A. Cooper, Hopkins or Jeffries with those first 2 picks & been sitting pretty now .

These posts are fun, but it's always about who you pick, no matter what position they are.

 

[spider321]

Wtf u talking about most of these bell cows were bargain basement deals

Calm down, Detroit.

Don't shoot me, please.

 

[rascal]

Lol...of course if you knew which RBs to pick.  What are the chances of missing compared to wr?  

In my leagues first place team in each went wr heavy.  

 

[Steeler]

In my main league there are keepers involved but i went WR heavy with the next group... K.Allen, D. Hopkins, B. Cooks.

 

[Jayrod]

Totally depends on league scoring, size, drafting trends, etc.

My 8 team work league, non-ppr?  I loaded up on RBs while people were drafting WR QB & TE.  4 weeks in, I'm undefeated and high point scorer in the league.

My 14 team PPR league with a bunch of FBGs?  I went BPA and ended up with 3 top WRs and won this week with the dynamic RB duo of Gore & Duke.  I'm 3-1 and in 2nd place.

2 success stories with totally different approaches.

Now my friends and family 8 team PPR league?  I'm 1-3 and in last place against a bunch of people that drafted by throwing darts at a list of names.  Go figure.

 

[Biabreakable]

I feel like there is too much emphasis on branding a strategy and not enough actual evaluation of what is a bell cow RB is, or whatever you want to call that.

What is the touch threshold for such players on a weekly basis?

From my perspective, before the season began, there were only a handful of RB that you could be reasonably confident in them being the primary RB for their teams.

Peterson

MIller

Elliot

D. Johnson

Bell

Gurley

These are the RB who generally were drafted before all others.

Hyde

Gore

CJ Anderson

McCoy

D. Murray

M Forte

L. Murray

These were some other RB who could be bell cows but there were and still are to some extent reasons to question that, or these players effectiveness.

Now with the benefit of hindsight we have seen some others emerge, such as McCoy CJ and D Murray. However there were good reasons to doubt these players would be the main RB for the entire season and those reasons have not really gone away although McCoy's competition has thinned out (or fatened and cut), Derrick Henry and Devontae Booker still loom should either CJ or Murray falter. Matt Forte was often speculated to share time with Powell and his age should have brought some doubt/concern as well. Gores age was and still is a concern. L. Murray is splitting 50/50 with the two rookie RB at his heels.

Bell had the suspension and possible injury as well as suspension concern as reasons to avoid him.

So maybe I am just over analyzing these situations to the point where I could talk myself out of almost all of these RB, especially with early picks. If the intent is to avoid busts, I think the WRs often seemed safer bets, of course busts can come from any position in the draft or player.

So instead of focusing on branding a strategy I think it would be more useful to define what a bell cow is first. I do not think Mark Ingram qualifies as that, but others seem to think that he does.

Being a workhorse to me should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 18 combined opportunities per game, but I am interested in what other peoples interpretations or thresholds of that might be. 

 

[SCT]

You don't win at the draft. It's all about moves that take advantage of positional scarcity. Let me brag a moment to show how active owners can build enough that draft is a distant memory. IF YOU DONT CARE ABOUT MY TEAMS STORY STOP READING  

12 team 3 year old Dynasty ppr.  

Qb:. Ben/Luck (started with Rodgers)

RB: DJ/Lamar/Ware/Dion/Gio (turned Ingram into lynch and lynch into DJ.  Turned forte into Lamar. Ware off ww)

WR: AB/OBJ/Marshall/Cobb/Jones/moncrief (turned Julio/Harvin/KB into AB/OBJ/Gio/Moncrief. Picked up jones off ww)

TE: Olsen/Gates (eifert for Olsen and gates off ww)

my league awards 60% of payout to most points on year. My team is 75 points ahead of second despite Lamar and obj not scoring in four weeks. 

Just sayin.  I realize dynasty is a different animal but my point is that none of us really know wth is gonna happen on draft day.  It's all about making moves and hoping they pan out.  Search opponents rosters for their weaknesses and find the guy that needs help where you can give it to him.  

 

[Weebs210]

Ground breaking stuff here.

 

[mnmplayer]

Supposedly this is the guy that came up with ZeroRB. http://rotoviz.com/2013/11/zero-rb-antifragility-and-the-myth-of-value-based-drafting/

Maybe somebody else is going to chime in and say, not it was "this other guy", or "no it was me," or "I been doing it for years." Not the point.

Point is he advocates taking zero to 1RB in the 1st 5 rounds.


The Antifragility of Zero RB


Zero RB is basically what it sounds like. You simply don’t draft running backs in the high leverage rounds. Depending on how a draft is progressing, I will draft either one high upside running back in Round 4 or 5, or I will draft none at all. My preferred lineup after five rounds is to own one tight end (Graham/Gronk) and four wide receivers. I then focus on selecting potential breakout players, the receiving back in timeshares, and backups in good offenses.

My theory is that you must take 2-3 bell cow RBs in the 1st 5 rounds and only take bell cow type backs, (not backs like Freeman/Gio/Hill etc. or other high talent producers in timeshares). A lot of analysis goes in to what is a bell cow type back. This strategy hinges on a proper assessment of retaining the role. I avoid a lot of the highly touted and talented timeshare or potential timeshare type backs. You have to not only assess the talent level but also the competition level on the team.

Everybody is making some good points about its who you pick, not how ... but the strategy basically says you can be flexible enough so you target guys you like whether that be an elite WR in the 1st round, depending on who you like you can adjust the strategy, but you want at least 2-3 bell cow backs by the 4th-5th pick. So target the guys you like and figure out where you can nab them but come away with 3 bell cow backs by the 5th round, ideally. The only way you would come away with two is if no bell cow backs are left and all that are left are timeshare backs. Also you can let the draft come to you in that certain targeted guys can fall if you have no specific guys you are targeting and just go pure value based draft.

What you don't want to do is continue to load up on a bunch of WRs when good RB value is to be had. I think its a mistake to go after that 3rd WR (or TE) when the 3rd WR spot on your roster is the easiest to fill aside from say QB. If you start 2 RBs its very difficult to find a bell cow back later in the year off the WW. Its very easy to find a WR3.

There is a thought process that WRs/TEs don't get injured as often, and that *might* be true (let's assume that it is), but WRs/TEs still get supplanted or drop-off from projections frequently as their situation is more fluid than RBs in that other WRs around them breakout (stealing targets) or their QB gets injured or has a bad year, or a philosophy change occurs. So while they may not get injured as often, its a fallacy that their targets are "safe" and while elite WRs are not easily replaced you can find many WR3 and even some WR2s on the wire as the season progresses a lot easier than bell cow type backs. Bell cows, if healthy will most likely keep their role/touches near what is expected and are much more valuable, rare and less easily replaced than a WR3 or even a borderline WR1/WR2. Only the elite WRs are as valuable (and remember with this strategy you are getting that elite WR in the 1st round.

The fact that ZeroRB has become so popular enabled the Bell Cow Delight strategy to be what I think is the most effective strategy going right now. Years ago, when RBs were drafted as a matter of course in the early rounds, it was impossible to get two bell cow backs and an elite WR on the same squad. Now it is fairly easy. For instance, Green, Bell, McCoy, Murray is possible today, or how about A. Brown, Evans, McCoy, Murray, but a decade ago there would be no chance in hell you would be able to draft either of those 4 guys according to ADP, and there are many other successful examples I could point to, much more than the few exceptions.

Thanks ZeroRB!

 

[Biabreakable]

Blah.

Yes I think most of us know what 0RB is. Why keep repeating what I think many of us already understand?

I think having a preconceived strategy really limits your options for drafting the best players available as each draft is different and you never know who might fall to your next pick. You should have a general idea about that and be thinking ahead, but locking yourself into one strategy is sub optimal.

Now if you end up drafting similar to the 0RB strategy or stud RB theory or whatever because those were the best players available, then great. But I don't think you should go into the draft with a rigid order of what positions you will take, because you would then be passing on other good options that become available during the flow of the draft.

Keeping an open mind and being able to adjust your strategy to what the draft gives you is a better approach imho.

 

[ratbast]

Tiers is the only way, within position and combined for early rounds. Recognize value. All based on that draft's flow. 

These days building quality depth is as important as anything. We haven't even started byes yet and my staff is 3 and 1 and the only guys Ive started each week are Wilson and Hill. Ive had 3 guys hit IR, 4 other guys out for more than 2 weeks already and 2 that we don't know when will come back. Add that some of these guys also lost their starting QB and you get my point....

Depth seems more important than any of these strategies for my team this year.