Blind bidding strategies (1 Viewer)

[Sack-Religious]

I did a search and didn't come up with a whole lot.

I think it was Matt Waldman on a recent Audible talking about an interesting blind bidding strategy. He advocated bumping up your bid by $1-$3 since most people will bid numbers like $10, $20, $25 etc. for WW additions. The logic is that by making your bid $13, $22, $27 etc. you're only using up a few extra blind bidding bucks, but you're increasing your chances of outbidding your competition because of people's natural tendencies.

Most of my leagues are relatively new to the blind bidding process, so I'm wondering if this strategy has been used by others with success and if, in fact, there is a trend for most people to stick to numbers divisible by 5, or if this is more anecdotal.

Are there other subtle strategies that people have employed with success?

 

[HeartoftheLions]

I don't believe there is a weekly article on it but it'd be awesome to have some sort of FBG estimate as to what the "hot" free agent pickups are going to be worth in blind bidding waiver wire leagues.

 

[mquinnjr]

Waldman's free agent report email had tiers and bid ranges, it came out this morning. Not sure if it's on the site today or not. Really liked it, and addressed most if not all of your points for FAAB this week.

HTH

 

[Sack-Religious]

Waldman's free agent report email had tiers and bid ranges, it came out this morning. Not sure if it's on the site today or not. Really liked it, and addressed most if not all of your points for FAAB this week.HTH

I saw Waldman's article and loved it and it really is quite helpful for providing relative values. While he provides ranges to bid within, I was looking at it more from the subtle strategy perspective of bidding a few bucks more than you'd normally bid and other little things like that. Seeing if other owners have been successful with this strategy and looking for other subtle things people can use to maximize dollars/increase acquisition chances was where I was trying to go with the original post. My apologies if I wasn't clear enough originally.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Was looking at this today...

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=653225

...was interested in just the right mix of whether to bid hard in week 1 for some prime players.

Or hold back or save up for the end of the year to corner the market in the final weeks or perhaps grab that valued backup midseason, etc.

I'm still hovering around $5 bids for some of the WRs out there but looking at Waldman's article he's suggesting as much as a 1/4 to 1/5 of the budget for bids.

Again, trying to learn something here.

 

[rickyg]

I'm not sure there is really a strategy above that Waldman tip (bid $1-$3 higher than a round number). I've seen people way overpay and get steals on players. It's really just about knowing your league mates, their roster needs (I.e. the fjax or Jennings owners will surely bid strong on CJ spiller and r. Cobb), their tendencies, and then understanding that you have a certain punt of finite bidding money that you want to last you the entire season.

Take that into account and bid accordingly to how much you think a particular player is going to help your team. Is this a player in the wire that will be a fixture in your lineup if you win him (I.e spiller or Alfred Morris)? Of so better bid strong for him. If its just a situational guy, a depth player, or trying to block someone else then make sure you don't blow your load. An example of that would be Ogletree. If you have 3 strong wrs that Ogletree woul never start over except for bye weeks or injuries than that should guide your bidding.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I'm of the philosophy that hoarding waiver wire cash isn't a good strategy. Most of the value off the waiver wires is found in the first few weeks. There's going to be some fools gold mixed in with some gems, but unless you take a shot early, you never know if you got lucky and landed what could be another equivalent mid round pick performance wise. I don't think it's unreasonable to blow 1/4 or even 1/3 of your WW budget early on one player. It's usually the only way you actually land that sought after player.

Before you take the plunge, ask how badly you need that WW guy and how it potentially shores up a weakness post-draft. And consider the situation of that player and if his "blow up" week was driven by good fortune of injuries to teammates or if he's considered a physically gifted athlete with upside to develop into a weekly starter. That evaluation is highly subjective and in the end is a personal decision.

But don't be that guy that has 75% of your WW budget as the playoffs approach. By then, it's almost worthless.

 

[LawFitz]

But don't be that guy that has 75% of your WW budget as the playoffs approach. By then, it's almost worthless.

I don't completely disagree with your premise. However, there is value in being able to take advantage of late season injury replacements during the stretch run by having control over the $$$. Or in blocking your main rivals from doing so.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

But don't be that guy that has 75% of your WW budget as the playoffs approach. By then, it's almost worthless.

I don't completely disagree with your premise. However, there is value in being able to take advantage of late season injury replacements during the stretch run by having control over the $$$. Or in blocking your main rivals from doing so.

And that's the rub. Do you go all in on someone like Ogletree hoping for this year's Cruz or L. Robinson, or save your money for later in the year to cherry pick values that arise due to injuries?I have generally gone all in if I strongly believe the player is going to be a difference maker. Sometime I hit, sometimes I miss. Either way I always regret not having deep pockets later in the season.

 

[packersfan]

I'm still hovering around $5 bids for some of the WRs out there but looking at Waldman's article he's suggesting as much as a 1/4 to 1/5 of the budget for bids.

We have a $50 FAAB budget in my league (you can make $0 moves after you run out but you're charged a fee for each of those transactions). Cobb's available and I'm putting in a bid of at least $19 for him tomorrow and I may go higher. So that would be nearly 40% of my budget I'm prepared to spend on him. That type of early season approach doesn't always work. Case in point Brandon Jackson two seasons ago when Ryan Grant got hurt in Week 1 and a lot of folks bid aggressively on Jackson, who turned out to be a huge bust. So that ended up being a costly investment for those owners. But my philosophy is that if there's a player I want who I think can be a big difference maker I'm going to be aggressive. I'd rather overpay to get someone I like than be frugal and miss out.

 

[ShaHBucks]

best bet is to use percentages relative to your bankroll. It should be a different percentage every week. For example my league started with 1000$ w 10$min bid. I have 989 left so 1% of that is 9.89. I'm spending 5% on the kicker Zuerlin so that's 5 * 9.89. Next week it can be different but that's how I'm managing my FAAB

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

best bet is to use percentages relative to your bankroll. It should be a different percentage every week. For example my league started with 1000$ w 10$min bid. I have 989 left so 1% of that is 9.89. I'm spending 5% on the kicker Zuerlin so that's 5 * 9.89. Next week it can be different but that's how I'm managing my FAAB

Ok, that's interesting.Not sure I understand it, but it's interesting.

 

[pollardsvision]

I'm a believer in spending early.

I'd rather take a chance on getting a stud that can help the whole year than wait around on the off chance that the right player comes along at the end of the season (and that you are the only one still sitting on money).

Ultimately, the only correct strategy is to identify good players and go get them.

"When" to spend the money isn't really the issue.

Also, I haven't noticed that people bid in increments of $5 in any of my leagues. The final dollar figures are pretty random. I assume it's because of people trying to bid one or two more dollars than bids ending in 0 or 5.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

I'm a believer in spending early.I'd rather take a chance on getting a stud that can help the whole year than wait around on the off chance that the right player comes along at the end of the season (and that you are the only one still sitting on money).Ultimately, the only correct strategy is to identify good players and go get them. "When" to spend the money isn't really the issue.Also, I haven't noticed that people bid in increments of $5 in any of my leagues. The final dollar figures are pretty random. I assume it's because of people trying to bid one or two more dollars than bids ending in 0 or 5.

this is me as well. there are some backups that become hot commodity later in the season, but the pool dries out quick after first week or two so i like to go after big names that weren't expected to be big names early.

 

[Sack-Religious]

best bet is to use percentages relative to your bankroll. It should be a different percentage every week. For example my league started with 1000$ w 10$min bid. I have 989 left so 1% of that is 9.89. I'm spending 5% on the kicker Zuerlin so that's 5 * 9.89. Next week it can be different but that's how I'm managing my FAAB

This is interesting, and really makes sense.