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Calvin Johnson 08 explosion - or another Detroit WR bust ? (1 Viewer)

The Moz

Footballguy
IMO there hasn't been a WR as physically talented to enter the league since Randy Moss - then again people said this regarding Carlos Rodgers as well.

From a talent standpoint it would seem like he is a cannot miss WR with his speed and hands. But you always I guess gotta be worried about the detroit WR curse. Even Roy Williams who had a good season somewhat flopped last year after a decent start and 1 great game. Right now IMO Cal is the better of the 2 wr's but that remains to be seen I guess. Last season Cal looked great untill he fell flat on his back and was injured for a while ... never looked the same the rest of the eyar after that.

So what says the sharks - Is Cal about to explode , bust under new system and the detroit curse , or the safe option be a nice WR 2 or 3 ?

ETA - by explode I mean a 85 - 1400 - 12 season or around that. By a nice 2or 3 WR I mean a 75 - 1050 - 8 season by Bust I mean go the way of BMW or Collar Bone Rodgers.

 
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the problem with calvin is that he can be the ones in a lifetime talent yet still bust because he is in millentown.

 
I certainly don't think a 1400-12 season is happening this year(if ever) I'd say a realistic goal is maybe 1000-10. I imagine that Calvin(and Roy for that matter) will be very inconsistent due to the nature of Detroit's offense and a very possible QB switch at some point this season.

I doubt I'd take him in the top-10.

 
Last year, Calvin Johnson missed all of the two-a-days, signing the day of the first exhibition game. A WR has a pretty steep learning curve and missing camp really set him back. That would be bad enough in a normal offense, but when you remember he had to learn the highly complex Mike Martz offense, that magnified the missed time even more. This is part of why he did not start early in the season.

He was injured early in the year (3rd or 4th game). He missed most of that game, plus missed the next game, and was limited in several others. He went about 2 months with very limited practice time because of his back injury, so he not only was behind from a learning perspective, he missed the chance to develop some timing and chemistry with Kitna.

I don't know exactly how many snaps he played, but I would guess about 50-60%. He would up with 48/756/4. I have no doubt that if he had not been hurt that he would have been in the 70/1000 range. I think he is being drastically undervalued early on. The missed practice time for a rookie is a huge loss, and even moreso in a complex offense like the Martz offense. He had some drops and concentration lapses, but that can partially be attributed to the missed practices.

I think people are just looking at his numbers and thinking he had a below par rookie year, but considering the circumstances, it was not as bad as it looked.

I believe 80/1200/8-10 is well within reach this year.

 
I am trying to move Calvin in a dynasty league. I am hoping to come away with romo or brees and a serviceable posesion wr ala driver or ward.

Very afraid the lions wreck this kid. Roy needs to get out for his own sake.

 
I am trying to move Calvin in a dynasty league. I am hoping to come away with romo or brees and a serviceable posesion wr ala driver or ward. Very afraid the lions wreck this kid. Roy needs to get out for his own sake.
FWIW, I acquired CJ2 this off-season in a very competitive, informed 16 team dynasty league.I paid Chris Henry, Jarvis Moss, pick 2.15 in 08, pick 1 in 09.
 
I am trying to move Calvin in a dynasty league. I am hoping to come away with romo or brees and a serviceable posesion wr ala driver or ward. Very afraid the lions wreck this kid. Roy needs to get out for his own sake.
FWIW, I acquired CJ2 this off-season in a very competitive, informed 16 team dynasty league.I paid Chris Henry, Jarvis Moss, pick 2.15 in 08, pick 1 in 09.
Eagad!!!!!
 
I'll toss out 72/1100/8 as my guess for 2008. That would put him as an average WR2. I think he's a tad undervalued at the moment.

 
I am trying to move Calvin in a dynasty league. I am hoping to come away with romo or brees and a serviceable posesion wr ala driver or ward. Very afraid the lions wreck this kid. Roy needs to get out for his own sake.
FWIW, I acquired CJ2 this off-season in a very competitive, informed 16 team dynasty league.I paid Chris Henry, Jarvis Moss, pick 2.15 in 08, pick 1 in 09.
Eagad!!!!!
That was done pre-Henry suspension.Funny thing is I proposed the deal never anticipating it being accepted. Guy takes the deal. I catch flack about giving up too much from a couple of owners. Thought it worked out okay for me.I know.... :)
 
I won't speculate as to his dynasty value, but I won't consider him better than Roy until he plays better than Roy, mitigating circumstances or no.

 
Last year, Calvin Johnson missed all of the two-a-days, signing the day of the first exhibition game. A WR has a pretty steep learning curve and missing camp really set him back. That would be bad enough in a normal offense, but when you remember he had to learn the highly complex Mike Martz offense, that magnified the missed time even more. This is part of why he did not start early in the season. He was injured early in the year (3rd or 4th game). He missed most of that game, plus missed the next game, and was limited in several others. He went about 2 months with very limited practice time because of his back injury, so he not only was behind from a learning perspective, he missed the chance to develop some timing and chemistry with Kitna. I don't know exactly how many snaps he played, but I would guess about 50-60%. He would up with 48/756/4. I have no doubt that if he had not been hurt that he would have been in the 70/1000 range. I think he is being drastically undervalued early on. The missed practice time for a rookie is a huge loss, and even moreso in a complex offense like the Martz offense. He had some drops and concentration lapses, but that can partially be attributed to the missed practices. I think people are just looking at his numbers and thinking he had a below par rookie year, but considering the circumstances, it was not as bad as it looked. I believe 80/1200/8-10 is well within reach this year.
:sarcasm: Most undervalued #2 WR in my rankings right now. As has been pointed out already, the kid ended up with 48/756/4 in a year where everything which could go wrong - did (short of a disasterous ligament injury). Only 4 teams have a better passing SOS than the Lions this year according to '07 passing yds. allowed (I know, I know. Preseason SOS is worthless, blah blah). But not all of the secondaries who were that bad last year will improve. Calvin's playoff matchups this year are: vs. Minn - 264.1 ypg allowed last year, @ Indy - 172.8 (yuck) and vs. NO - 245.2. He'll have an entire offseason with Kitna and a rushing attack which should be improved to some small degree better than 31st in the league. Looking to trade Calvin in dynasty right now? Big mistake. HUGE. You are why astute fantasy owners don't bother with rookie QB's and WR in the first round. They know they can get Calvin from you at discount in year #2 or #3 when he and others like him aren't immediately blowing up the league. If you're a Calvin owner please just hold onto him for '08. You won't regret it.
 
I'm not doubting the guy has the talent to be a 1200 and 10 TD guy, but the Lions are planning to run the ball more this year.

Calvin Johnson is a WR 2.

Calvin Johnson had 756 yards receiving and 4 receiving TD's. Although I see reason to believe he'll move forward, anticipating the kind of numbers for next season I'm seeing in here is going to leave a lot of people disappointed I'm afraid.

He'd do well to get his first 1000 yard receiving season with 7 Td's.

 
not to turn this into AC but, I may have just been offered big ben rothlesberger and AJ for Calvin and my first in 09 and first in 10.

I like that. As I have no qb

 
noneother said:
not to turn this into AC but, I may have just been offered big ben rothlesberger and AJ for Calvin and my first in 09 and first in 10.

I like that. As I have no qb will anyway
After my quick little edit, yes, you take that and run.
 
noneother said:
not to turn this into AC but, I may have just been offered big ben rothlesberger and AJ for Calvin and my first in 09 and first in 10. I like that. As I have no qb
Want to join my league ? :shrug:
 
Simply put, I would not hesitate to take CJ as a WR2 this year.

As for dynasty, he may very well turn into a WR1 next season if Roy leaves (if he doesn't get franchised).

Of course, the QB situation will need to iron itself out too.

 
Last year, Calvin Johnson missed all of the two-a-days, signing the day of the first exhibition game. A WR has a pretty steep learning curve and missing camp really set him back. That would be bad enough in a normal offense, but when you remember he had to learn the highly complex Mike Martz offense, that magnified the missed time even more. This is part of why he did not start early in the season.

He was injured early in the year (3rd or 4th game). He missed most of that game, plus missed the next game, and was limited in several others. He went about 2 months with very limited practice time because of his back injury, so he not only was behind from a learning perspective, he missed the chance to develop some timing and chemistry with Kitna.

I don't know exactly how many snaps he played, but I would guess about 50-60%. He would up with 48/756/4. I have no doubt that if he had not been hurt that he would have been in the 70/1000 range. I think he is being drastically undervalued early on. The missed practice time for a rookie is a huge loss, and even moreso in a complex offense like the Martz offense. He had some drops and concentration lapses, but that can partially be attributed to the missed practices.

I think people are just looking at his numbers and thinking he had a below par rookie year, but considering the circumstances, it was not as bad as it looked.

I believe 80/1200/8-10 is well within reach this year.
:lmao: Most undervalued #2 WR in my rankings right now. As has been pointed out already, the kid ended up with 48/756/4 in a year where everything which could go wrong - did (short of a disasterous ligament injury). Only 4 teams have a better passing SOS than the Lions this year according to '07 passing yds. allowed (I know, I know. Preseason SOS is worthless, blah blah). But not all of the secondaries who were that bad last year will improve. Calvin's playoff matchups this year are: vs. Minn - 264.1 ypg allowed last year, @ Indy - 172.8 (yuck) and vs. NO - 245.2. He'll have an entire offseason with Kitna and a rushing attack which should be improved to some small degree better than 31st in the league. Looking to trade Calvin in dynasty right now? Big mistake. HUGE. You are why astute fantasy owners don't bother with rookie QB's and WR in the first round. They know they can get Calvin from you at discount in year #2 or #3 when he and others like him aren't immediately blowing up the league.

If you're a Calvin owner please just hold onto him for '08. You won't regret it.
This number is most assuredly going down. Big time. I think the Vikes have one of the top secondaries in the NFC and now they'll have Allen pressuring the QB. I do agree, however, that Johnson is somewhat underrated going into the season.
 
I am trying to move Calvin in a dynasty league. I am hoping to come away with romo or brees and a serviceable posesion wr ala driver or ward. Very afraid the lions wreck this kid. Roy needs to get out for his own sake.
what dumb ### would give you Romo or Brees let alone Romo or Brees and a WR?
 
I am trying to move Calvin in a dynasty league. I am hoping to come away with romo or brees and a serviceable posesion wr ala driver or ward. Very afraid the lions wreck this kid. Roy needs to get out for his own sake.
FWIW, I acquired CJ2 this off-season in a very competitive, informed 16 team dynasty league.I paid Chris Henry, Jarvis Moss, pick 2.15 in 08, pick 1 in 09.
Eagad!!!!!
You PAID WAY TOO MUCH!!! I would have kept the pick in 2009
 
I am trying to move Calvin in a dynasty league. I am hoping to come away with romo or brees and a serviceable posesion wr ala driver or ward.

Very afraid the lions wreck this kid. Roy needs to get out for his own sake.
what dumb ### would give you Romo or Brees let alone Romo or Brees and a WR?
noneother said:
not to turn this into AC but, I may have just been offered big ben rothlesberger and AJ for Calvin and my first in 09 and first in 10.

I like that. As I have no qb
 
I'm not doubting the guy has the talent to be a 1200 and 10 TD guy, but the Lions are planning to run the ball more this year.Calvin Johnson is a WR 2.Calvin Johnson had 756 yards receiving and 4 receiving TD's. Although I see reason to believe he'll move forward, anticipating the kind of numbers for next season I'm seeing in here is going to leave a lot of people disappointed I'm afraid.He'd do well to get his first 1000 yard receiving season with 7 Td's.
I'd agree with this. Expectations just continue to be too high for this guy. Det still has a WR on the team better than Johnson and the truth of the matter is the passing game just isn't nearly as good as many would like to think in Det. I concur the 1000/7 and that is a very good season for a 2nd year player. I probably will not end up with Johnson on any of my fantasy teams again this year as he the people expecting 1200/10 will draft him way before I'm ready to.
 
minus a few td's and calvin's rookie year is not all that different than another once in a lifetime wr. fitz.

 
I'm not doubting the guy has the talent to be a 1200 and 10 TD guy, but the Lions are planning to run the ball more this year.Calvin Johnson is a WR 2.Calvin Johnson had 756 yards receiving and 4 receiving TD's. Although I see reason to believe he'll move forward, anticipating the kind of numbers for next season I'm seeing in here is going to leave a lot of people disappointed I'm afraid.He'd do well to get his first 1000 yard receiving season with 7 Td's.
I'd agree with this. Expectations just continue to be too high for this guy. Det still has a WR on the team better than Johnson and the truth of the matter is the passing game just isn't nearly as good as many would like to think in Det. I concur the 1000/7 and that is a very good season for a 2nd year player. I probably will not end up with Johnson on any of my fantasy teams again this year as he the people expecting 1200/10 will draft him way before I'm ready to.
People who think he will only hit 1000/7 must not think he will show any improvement, because he would have easily hit those numbers last year if not for his back injury. 1200/10 is a modest improvement when factoring in the circumstances of last year.
 
I'm not doubting the guy has the talent to be a 1200 and 10 TD guy, but the Lions are planning to run the ball more this year.Calvin Johnson is a WR 2.Calvin Johnson had 756 yards receiving and 4 receiving TD's. Although I see reason to believe he'll move forward, anticipating the kind of numbers for next season I'm seeing in here is going to leave a lot of people disappointed I'm afraid.He'd do well to get his first 1000 yard receiving season with 7 Td's.
I'd agree with this. Expectations just continue to be too high for this guy. Det still has a WR on the team better than Johnson and the truth of the matter is the passing game just isn't nearly as good as many would like to think in Det. I concur the 1000/7 and that is a very good season for a 2nd year player. I probably will not end up with Johnson on any of my fantasy teams again this year as he the people expecting 1200/10 will draft him way before I'm ready to.
People who think he will only hit 1000/7 must not think he will show any improvement, because he would have easily hit those numbers last year if not for his back injury. 1200/10 is a modest improvement when factoring in the circumstances of last year.
Come on, you don't know that Calvin would have hit those numbers last year. Why even bother saying things like that? The bottom line is Calvin played in 15 games last year. He started 10. I know and understand he was hurt and struggled at times because of it. I think I've factored that into the 1000/7 number. If you look at his numbers based on those 15 games played (probably not fair because he missed time in some of those games and was hurt as you said), Calvin averaged 50 yds per game last year and 0.26 TDs per game. That correlates to 800/4 over a full year. If you take just his games started (again, not fair because he actually played significantly more than that) you get 75 yds per game and 0.4 TDs per game which would be 1200/6.5. I'd say that 1000/7 is a pretty fair split between the 2 adding in a few extra points for growth (the 7 TDs). Moreover, only 6 WRs in the NFL recorded 1200/10 last year. The year prior only 1 WR met that feet and 2 years ago only 3. It's just not an easy thing to do. Calvin has not proven himself to be an elite WR in the NFL as of yet. Sure, he has elite potential. I can't justify projecting 1200/10 simply on potential however.
 
I'm not doubting the guy has the talent to be a 1200 and 10 TD guy, but the Lions are planning to run the ball more this year.

Calvin Johnson is a WR 2.

Calvin Johnson had 756 yards receiving and 4 receiving TD's. Although I see reason to believe he'll move forward, anticipating the kind of numbers for next season I'm seeing in here is going to leave a lot of people disappointed I'm afraid.

He'd do well to get his first 1000 yard receiving season with 7 Td's.
I'd agree with this. Expectations just continue to be too high for this guy. Det still has a WR on the team better than Johnson and the truth of the matter is the passing game just isn't nearly as good as many would like to think in Det. I concur the 1000/7 and that is a very good season for a 2nd year player. I probably will not end up with Johnson on any of my fantasy teams again this year as he the people expecting 1200/10 will draft him way before I'm ready to.
People who think he will only hit 1000/7 must not think he will show any improvement, because he would have easily hit those numbers last year if not for his back injury. 1200/10 is a modest improvement when factoring in the circumstances of last year.
Come on, you don't know that Calvin would have hit those numbers last year. Why even bother saying things like that? The bottom line is Calvin played in 15 games last year. He started 10. I know and understand he was hurt and struggled at times because of it. I think I've factored that into the 1000/7 number. If you look at his numbers based on those 15 games played (probably not fair because he missed time in some of those games and was hurt as you said), Calvin averaged 50 yds per game last year and 0.26 TDs per game. That correlates to 800/4 over a full year. If you take just his games started (again, not fair because he actually played significantly more than that) you get 75 yds per game and 0.4 TDs per game which would be 1200/6.5. I'd say that 1000/7 is a pretty fair split between the 2 adding in a few extra points for growth (the 7 TDs). Moreover, only 6 WRs in the NFL recorded 1200/10 last year. The year prior only 1 WR met that feet and 2 years ago only 3. It's just not an easy thing to do. Calvin has not proven himself to be an elite WR in the NFL as of yet. Sure, he has elite potential. I can't justify projecting 1200/10 simply on potential however.
I think you are paying too much attention to just the numbers and not enough to the circumstances. He missed one full game, most of 2 others and in at least 4-5 more games he probably only played half the game. He also have very limited practice time for about 2 months. So with all that, There is no doubt in my mind that he hits the 1000/7 without the injury. That's only about 250 yards, and with all of the time he missed, I don't see how that isn't realistic.
 
I'm not doubting the guy has the talent to be a 1200 and 10 TD guy, but the Lions are planning to run the ball more this year.

Calvin Johnson is a WR 2.

Calvin Johnson had 756 yards receiving and 4 receiving TD's. Although I see reason to believe he'll move forward, anticipating the kind of numbers for next season I'm seeing in here is going to leave a lot of people disappointed I'm afraid.

He'd do well to get his first 1000 yard receiving season with 7 Td's.
I'd agree with this. Expectations just continue to be too high for this guy. Det still has a WR on the team better than Johnson and the truth of the matter is the passing game just isn't nearly as good as many would like to think in Det. I concur the 1000/7 and that is a very good season for a 2nd year player. I probably will not end up with Johnson on any of my fantasy teams again this year as he the people expecting 1200/10 will draft him way before I'm ready to.
People who think he will only hit 1000/7 must not think he will show any improvement, because he would have easily hit those numbers last year if not for his back injury. 1200/10 is a modest improvement when factoring in the circumstances of last year.
Come on, you don't know that Calvin would have hit those numbers last year. Why even bother saying things like that? The bottom line is Calvin played in 15 games last year. He started 10. I know and understand he was hurt and struggled at times because of it. I think I've factored that into the 1000/7 number. If you look at his numbers based on those 15 games played (probably not fair because he missed time in some of those games and was hurt as you said), Calvin averaged 50 yds per game last year and 0.26 TDs per game. That correlates to 800/4 over a full year. If you take just his games started (again, not fair because he actually played significantly more than that) you get 75 yds per game and 0.4 TDs per game which would be 1200/6.5. I'd say that 1000/7 is a pretty fair split between the 2 adding in a few extra points for growth (the 7 TDs). Moreover, only 6 WRs in the NFL recorded 1200/10 last year. The year prior only 1 WR met that feet and 2 years ago only 3. It's just not an easy thing to do. Calvin has not proven himself to be an elite WR in the NFL as of yet. Sure, he has elite potential. I can't justify projecting 1200/10 simply on potential however.
I think you are paying too much attention to just the numbers and not enough to the circumstances. He missed one full game, most of 2 others and in at least 4-5 more games he probably only played half the game. He also have very limited practice time for about 2 months. So with all that, There is no doubt in my mind that he hits the 1000/7 without the injury. That's only about 250 yards, and with all of the time he missed, I don't see how that isn't realistic.
I'd say you are exaggerating the amount of time Johnson missed. Here is a link to his season targets as well as those of the Det O. Not to mention underestimating how difficult those numbers you are projecting are to attain, as stated in my earlier post.
 
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I'm not doubting the guy has the talent to be a 1200 and 10 TD guy, but the Lions are planning to run the ball more this year.

Calvin Johnson is a WR 2.

Calvin Johnson had 756 yards receiving and 4 receiving TD's. Although I see reason to believe he'll move forward, anticipating the kind of numbers for next season I'm seeing in here is going to leave a lot of people disappointed I'm afraid.

He'd do well to get his first 1000 yard receiving season with 7 Td's.
I'd agree with this. Expectations just continue to be too high for this guy. Det still has a WR on the team better than Johnson and the truth of the matter is the passing game just isn't nearly as good as many would like to think in Det. I concur the 1000/7 and that is a very good season for a 2nd year player. I probably will not end up with Johnson on any of my fantasy teams again this year as he the people expecting 1200/10 will draft him way before I'm ready to.
People who think he will only hit 1000/7 must not think he will show any improvement, because he would have easily hit those numbers last year if not for his back injury. 1200/10 is a modest improvement when factoring in the circumstances of last year.
Come on, you don't know that Calvin would have hit those numbers last year. Why even bother saying things like that? The bottom line is Calvin played in 15 games last year. He started 10. I know and understand he was hurt and struggled at times because of it. I think I've factored that into the 1000/7 number. If you look at his numbers based on those 15 games played (probably not fair because he missed time in some of those games and was hurt as you said), Calvin averaged 50 yds per game last year and 0.26 TDs per game. That correlates to 800/4 over a full year. If you take just his games started (again, not fair because he actually played significantly more than that) you get 75 yds per game and 0.4 TDs per game which would be 1200/6.5. I'd say that 1000/7 is a pretty fair split between the 2 adding in a few extra points for growth (the 7 TDs). Moreover, only 6 WRs in the NFL recorded 1200/10 last year. The year prior only 1 WR met that feet and 2 years ago only 3. It's just not an easy thing to do. Calvin has not proven himself to be an elite WR in the NFL as of yet. Sure, he has elite potential. I can't justify projecting 1200/10 simply on potential however.
:lmao: All very valid points. We can tweak and twist numbers to serve whatever argument we have. I'm in the camp that says 1,200 and 10 is very doable for CJ this year. To help my argument I can say, "Just look at his two healthy games to begin the year." 4/70/1 and 4/60/1. I can also point to the fact that he didn't really score 4 TD's last year, but 5 (the 32 yd. end around). Granted, we can't go banking on a couple of rushing TD's for WR but how do you factor in that explosiveness? You're saying a full additional offseason of work, not having to take a couple of Vicotin just to get on the field and starting 6 more games than in '07 = 2 more TD's. I disagree. And neither of us are wrong yet. That's the beauty of kicking these things around in May.
 
Add the fact that McDonald led the team in Rec,yards and TD's makes the call on any WR on the team very hard. I wouldnd want any as a #1. But they are all solid #3's. One of them should be a solid #2 but i wouldnt gamble on it myself. Its a 1 out of 3 chance..No thanks

 
All drafts I've been, one start up and a couple of Mocks.. hes been taken in WR1 range, with in the 1st 10 WRs. I'm sorry, buts thats a little high for me.

 
haters wanna hate.

CJ goes for 1000 and 10 (1-2 on ground) and 100 rushing yards. THis guy is sick. The predictable Martzoffense truly hampered his development and he was hurt all year. watched this guy play live at tech a few times. he is SICK. All the tools, speed and intangibles.

Most rookies have a hard time transitioning to speed of game. He had to do it while suffering through what he has described as the worst injry of his career, and a lingering injury that never game him taht 'burst'. With an improved running game and focus I can ony imagine he and williams each have 1-2 80 yards type tds on tds this year (play action release). Pkus the lions will be down and playing catch up. I think he is very undervalued right now.

 
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Yitbos69 said:
I won't speculate as to his dynasty value, but I won't consider him better than Roy until he plays better than Roy, mitigating circumstances or no.
Their numbers were pretty close in 2007Roy Williams 837/5 Calvin Johnson 808/5
Roy was hurt most of the year, it seemed, so that effects this a bit. Come to think of it, both got nicked up, so these numbers are hard to use to predict a healthy season.I think Calvary will almost get 80 and 1100 by accident. He's just too big and easy to throw to to not get 5 or 6 bals and 75 yards a game. That's not killer weekly production, but it looks good on paper at year's end.
 

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