Concept Coop
Footballguy
Inside the 5 he had 15 rushes for 9 firstdowns and 8 TDs. That is well above 33% - and among the best in the NFL, if not the best.
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Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Jason Wood
- Start date
Newmancrew
Footballguy
Good discussion, bump
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I have been getting him late 2nd, early 3rd in redrafts and am very happy with that.
He has 40+TD potential. The reports out of camp are great; he is learning to take some off of his throws and it is making him more accurate. I certainly won't be betting against him until after (IF) he falls back down to earth. He has the potential to be the highest VBD/VORP scoring player at any position and is going much later than he should be.
He has 40+TD potential. The reports out of camp are great; he is learning to take some off of his throws and it is making him more accurate. I certainly won't be betting against him until after (IF) he falls back down to earth. He has the potential to be the highest VBD/VORP scoring player at any position and is going much later than he should be.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
I'm torn on how well I think Newton will do this year. I compare him to Stafford, the two Qbs you have to pick between after the big 3 are gone, IMO at least. I've come to the conclusion it just depends on league scoring (duh) when deciding between those 2. Stafford with 51 passing Tds is high rated in leagues with 6 point passing tds and Newton gets the bump in 4 point passing tds but 6 point rushing.
Great rookie season, I think he'll build off last season but we can't expect 14 rushing tds, teams will know what to expect more of heading into 2012.
3850 yards, 23tds and 18 ints
9 rushing tds
Great rookie season, I think he'll build off last season but we can't expect 14 rushing tds, teams will know what to expect more of heading into 2012.
3850 yards, 23tds and 18 ints
9 rushing tds
Dippa
Footballguy
Good info...thanks for posting, but I disagree with some of your analysis. Looking at this breakdown combined with Newtons splits reveals a pretty astonishing stat: In the second half of last year, Cam had 7 rushing TDs with only 7 attempts inside the 10. So, even though he was only 4 of 7 on those attempts, for every attempt he didn't score from inside the 10, he scored one from outside the 10. And while his goalline attempts were down in the second half, he had the exact same number of overall attempts in the second half as the first half, so I don't think one can assume that they intentionally ran him less inside the 10 during the second half...they ran him the same amount overall.Has there ever been anyone close to accomplishing something like that? 7 carries inside the 10 and 7 rushing TDs? Insane...Because they started to eliminate the Newton runs last year toward the end of the season.Here are runs inside the 10 yard line last year. Over the first 8 games Newton got 15 out of the 24 runs inside the 10. He converted 5 of them, while the others converted 3, so both 33%. In the last 8 weeks, Newton got only 7 of the 17 runs inside the 10. He converted 4 (57%) and the others also converted 4 (40%). Also notice that by the end of the year, you saw the distribution go almost to 50/50, and I expect this trend to continue and ultimately be closer to 40/60.I'm not sure why everyone is so casually cutting his rushing TDs in half. I owned him last year so watched a lot of Panthers games, and every time they got inside the 5-10 yard line it seemed like Newton was automatic for 6. Would love to see RZ success rate by play. Why would the Panthers eliminate such a high percentage play? The Pats don't handoff when they need a foot, they run the Brady Sneak because it's automatic, despite the higher QB injury risk, I think Panthers so the same in the RZ.
Ths is an instance where Regression to the Mean Group Think is off base. We don't know what Newtons mean rushing TD total should be bc there really hasn't been a guy that big and fast who can take the hots that a Vick can't.. Culpepper is comparable but wasn't nearly as fast. My guess is his mean rushing TD totals for his early career will be closer to 9-10 which means yes he'll have 6-7 TD seasons but I think that is the low end not the mean.
ETA: Just scrolled up and see some folks are predicting 9-10 rushing TDs. I obviously agree with themand poster I'm quoting almost seems to be referencing 6-7 as a floor so please excuse my lack of reading comprehension.
Newton Other Newton Total Other Total 1 2 0 2 0 100.00% 0.00%2 6 1 8 1 88.89% 11.11%3 0 0 8 1 88.89% 11.11%4 3 2 11 3 78.57% 21.43%5 3 1 14 4 77.78% 22.22%6 0 1 14 5 73.68% 26.32%7 3 4 17 9 65.38% 34.62%8 0 1 17 10 62.96% 37.04%9 0 0 17 10 62.96% 37.04%10 0 0 17 10 62.96% 37.04%11 1 0 18 10 64.29% 35.71%12 0 1 18 11 62.07% 37.93%13 5 4 23 15 60.53% 39.47%14 0 0 23 15 60.53% 39.47%15 0 2 23 17 57.50% 42.50%16 1 3 24 20 54.55% 45.45%17 0 0 24 20 54.55% 45.45%
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I absolutely agree that Cam is not likely to score 14 rushing TDs, but for a different reason: there is likely to be fewer opportunities. The offense will score from further out more often, and the goal line looks did slow down over the 2nd half. But defenses having a year to study Cam will do nothing, in terms of stopping him at the goal line. The Panthers weren't cute. They ran the same play every time; the defenses knew they were going to, every time. It didn't matter, and it won't this year either.
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unckeyherb
Footballguy
I think the point with cam is that, as mentioned above, the panthers will run the same option play over and over in the red zone. Cam will either run it in or pass it in. I really don't see them giving it to jstew/Williams/tolbert when they have such a high success rate as it is. Sky is the limit with him this year.
I still believe that double digit rushing tds is a near mortal lock but if I'm wrong it means that a majority of those will be replaced by passing tds. In my league all tds are 6 points..so, okay with me.
I still believe that double digit rushing tds is a near mortal lock but if I'm wrong it means that a majority of those will be replaced by passing tds. In my league all tds are 6 points..so, okay with me.
meanjoegreen
Footballguy
Stewart ran it in at the GL last night.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
that is kind of silly... don't ignorant talent when you see itme too
Manster
Footballguy
Everyone knows Cam is talented, and what he did last season was amazing. I've been kind of waiting to see if D's are going to stifle him some, or if he will regress, or whatever. Playing QB in the NFL is arguably the hardest position in pro sports to be CONSISTENTLY good at. With that said, he just keeps impressing me. And I think it's mostly his command and confidence out there that allows him to use his athletic ability to its fullest. He just looks like he knows he's going to succeed.that is kind of silly... don't ignorant talent when you see it
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Sophomore slump? 
FavreCo
Footballguy
How about continuation of his downward spiral throughout 2012. No 300 yard passing games since week 4 and no 200 yarders since week 13. He may get 200 today though.Sophomore slump?
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Is that right? Hmmm. I've never owned him.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Right on cue. TD pass.
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
16 of 21 is a soph slump?Sophomore slump?
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I expect better.16 of 21 is a soph slump?Sophomore slump?
tombonneau
Footballguy
Watched first half. Cam looked fine. Panthers OL on the other hand ...
VaTerp
Footballguy
Cam's "downward spiral" from last year has been greatly exaggerated. His lower passing numbers in the 2nd half of the season were were a direct result of Carolina throwing the ball less.He actually completed a higher percentage of his passes and had a better TD-INT ratio in the 2nd half of the season. Carolina also went 4-4 over the 2nd half after going 2-6 in the 1st.How about continuation of his downward spiral throughout 2012. No 300 yard passing games since week 4 and no 200 yarders since week 13. He may get 200 today though.Sophomore slump?
VaTerp
Footballguy
I'm playing against him so I hope his numbers stay like this but I think he's looked fine other than the last pick.Very surprisingly, Carolina has not been able to get ANYthing going in the running game and the O-line has not played well but I've thought Cam has looked pretty good overall.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
Well, you can stop saying that one now.
FavreCo
Footballguy
Downward fantasy spiral. The team definately got beter when they took the ball out of his hands. As far as his passing, he's 0-4 when passing for 300+ yards. 0-7 when passing for over 260 yards. The coaching staff hasn't figured that out.Cam's "downward spiral" from last year has been greatly exaggerated. His lower passing numbers in the 2nd half of the season were were a direct result of Carolina throwing the ball less.He actually completed a higher percentage of his passes and had a better TD-INT ratio in the 2nd half of the season. Carolina also went 4-4 over the 2nd half after going 2-6 in the 1st.How about continuation of his downward spiral throughout 2012. No 300 yard passing games since week 4 and no 200 yarders since week 13. He may get 200 today though.Sophomore slump?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
They averaged negative yards, per carry, into the 2nd half. What didnt the coaches realize?Downward fantasy spiral. The team definately got beter when they took the ball out of his hands. As far as his passing, he's 0-4 when passing for 300+ yards. 0-7 when passing for over 260 yards. The coaching staff hasn't figured that out.Cam's "downward spiral" from last year has been greatly exaggerated. His lower passing numbers in the 2nd half of the season were were a direct result of Carolina throwing the ball less.He actually completed a higher percentage of his passes and had a better TD-INT ratio in the 2nd half of the season. Carolina also went 4-4 over the 2nd half after going 2-6 in the 1st.How about continuation of his downward spiral throughout 2012. No 300 yard passing games since week 4 and no 200 yarders since week 13. He may get 200 today though.Sophomore slump?
the_vision
Footballguy
Just wondering how many times they ran the ball.
duaneok66
Footballguy
they didn't run it much.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Sophomore slump?
Where is he ranked in dynasty?Sophomore slump?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
My opinion:6 point - RG3RodgersLuckNewton4 Point - RG3RodgersNewtonLuckThose looking to invest in Cam are going to have to deal with a lower initial scoring output than it looked like going into this season. One would hope the Panthers can fix a lot of their issues in one off-season, but it't not a given. For that reason, I have him ranked lower than I did going into the season. That said, the potential is clearly there. He is still being used as a primary goal line option, which is huge, and was a question, at one point. The TDs are down, because the offense is broken. But, the usage is still there, when they do get close to the end zone. His YPC are tied for 2nd in the NFL, a good sign. Newton is a huge buy low this off-season. He burned a lot of people and the smart money will be invested in him, to take advantage of the backlash. He is still a unique talent with a top 10 fantasy season EVER under his belt.Cam didn't take the steps we would hope, especially with his footwork and lower level accuracy. But he is the same guy he was last year, in a much worse situation.Where is he ranked in dynasty?Sophomore slump?
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