If they clean house and get a high 2 from Atlanta or NYG or similar for Fields, I would think that is a fair swap and wouldn’t expect much better.
If they keep Fields and coaches, 1.1 from NYG would net like 1.5, 2.5, 25 1st probably.
Should be an interesting couple months for this whole organization.
I'd personally hate 1.05 because I feel after the draft combine that is going to be start of the second tier of guys.
Williams, Maye, Daniels and MHjr will go top 4.
I do like hearing the reports that this year's #1 should hold more value than last year's because Williams grades out higher than Young and Stroud.
I think two firsts and two seconds is the minimum. A lot depends on how far back they trade.
When was the last time getting the QB who was the perceived QB1 overall from a given draft made the key difference to a team and turned it from laughingstock into Super Bowl contender? I can think of maybe 3 examples in the past 20 years: Eli, Burrow, and Cam Newton. Joe Cool is the only successful example that's relatively recent, and it's debatable how much of his success is due to drafting Jamaar Chase his 2nd year after a good but not awesome rookie year.
So for true franchise QB like Eli or Burrow, your hit rate with the 1.01 or even 1.02 pick is like 5%, maybe?
Then you have the other results:
Maybe 10%: Guys who were All-Pro caliber: Matt Stafford, Andrew Luck, Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, arguably RG3.
Another 15% ish: Guys who are quality starters and can succeed if given good coaching and weapons: Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Jared Goff.
For the rest, if you're lucky you have a serviceable but low-ceiling starters like Alex Smith. Most end up as replacement level starters at best like Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, Sam Bradford, Jamarcus Russell, David Carr, etc. ad infinitum.
Then compare the results with using a high pick on an elite weapon for your existing QB:
Tyreek Hill made Tua look awesome.
Sun God made Goff look good.
Ja'marr Chase made Burrow look awesome.
Davante Adams made Derek Carr look good.
OBJ made late career Eli look good.
AJ Green made Andy Dalton look good.
Randy Moss made Matt Cassel look good.
You give Fields a guy like MJH Jr. or Malik Nabers, all of a sudden you can pencil in Fields as for the Pro Bowl. Probably won't be an All-Pro, but he'll be a completely viable playoff QB in the Jared Goff model.