Chris Ivory (1 Viewer)

[ol blues]

I love Ivory running for the Jets, and I wouldn't ever waste a pick on a Jets running back. Rotoworld has this right for once -- it's the muddiest situation in the league save Philly and Denver, and it won't be well until the year has begun until it all susses out, IMO.

Agree it is muddy, but if you compare to Philly and Denver (both with the lead back with an ADP in the top 12 for RBs), Ivory (or any Jet RB for that matter) is a ticket that can pay off.

Perhaps. I think many prefer the risk of a player leading in a strong offense than the relative certainty of a player leading in a weaker offense. Ivory's upside in his offense isn't that valuable of a "ticket" to many.

 

[Faust]

Will Jets remain shy of workload to make Chris Ivory elite?

 

[Faust]

Jets' Chris Ivory hoping 2015 is his breakout year

 

[matttyl]

Am I wrong in thinking he could be a sneaky good #3RB type, maybe even better than that?

 

[Tool]

Am I wrong in thinking he could be a sneaky good #3RB type, maybe even better than that?

could be. Ridley's the x factor.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Am I wrong in thinking he could be a sneaky good #3RB type, maybe even better than that?

He was a mediocre RB3 (in ppg) last year, so there is certainly upside if his workload and receptions increase. Marshall makes the offense better as well, so maybe more opportunities from that as well.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

ESPN Jets reporter Rich Cimini "can see" Chris Ivory exceeding his 198 carries from last season, "but not by much."

Though he was much more effective than Chris Johnson last season, the Jets maddeningly kept the reins on Ivory all year. Though the new coaching staff could choose to do the same, the reality is the Jets have no one else to give the ball. Stevan Ridley is still recovering from knee surgery, Zac Stacy is as underwhelming as they come and Bilal Powell is better suited in a third-down role. If he can stay healthy, Ivory has a good shot at 225 carries.

Source: ESPN.com

Aug 15 - 9:12 AM

 

[JFS171]

All quiet on the Ivory front... seems like a decent buy to me though. Gailey seems intent on involving Ivory in the passing game this year, perhaps to the tune of 30+ receptions (caught 3 for 20 yards in the first 3 series of their last game). Given the rest of the RBs on the roster, Ivory should easily see an uptick in the 198 carries he got last year - maybe 225+ or more.

Conservatively, even using his 4.1 YPC last year instead of his career 4.7 (which also ignores the offensive upgrades to the WR corps, QB potentially, and the OC - a major upgrade to Chan Gailey), 225 carries would push Ivory to ~925 yards on the ground. I don't think 1,000 is unreasonable given the upgrades to the offense as a whole.

If we add 30 receptions at his career 7.2 YPR, that's another 216 yards. The Jets offense won't be special, but Gailey rarely has a completely useless offense, and Ivory's also the goalline back. He scored 7 total touchdowns last year; would 10 be out of the question?

Seems like 1200 yards, 30 receptions, and 10 TDs is well within reach, and the floor isn't too much lower (can it really get worse than last year?). Feels like a rock-solid RB2 that's going way cheaper...

 

[SameSongNDance]

Rex was very wise to limit Ivory's touches last year. He has all the talent in the world but one of the worst injury histories I've seen of any player ever. RB2 is his ceiling if only because I think he'd go down with an injury before he accrued the touches necessary to put up RB1 numbers.

Even if I'm right however, I do think he represents good value. He's been going in the late 8th on mfl recently which is far too low.

 

[Yenrub]

I had a draft this weekend I got him with pick 6.09 in a 12 team draft. He was the 32nd RB taken (factoring in keepers)

 

[Hawkeye21]

I had a draft this weekend I got him with pick 6.09 in a 12 team draft. He was the 32nd RB taken (factoring in keepers)

Saturday I took him in the 7th round (75th overall) in a 12 team league. I'll have him on a few of my teams with value like that.

 

[Warhogs]

As usual, the key for Ivory should be health if you subscribe to the theory that some players just are hurt more than others. I can also see a healthy Ridley possibly cutting into Ivory's production later in the season. I think he is a great buy at his current ADP and should be a solid RB at least early on this year. I would just keep a watch on Ridley in case the Jets struggle or Ivory gets hurt.

 

[FF Ninja]

He does seem like a good deal now that he's in a Gailey offense. He is definitely a guy I'd want to handcuff, though. The problem is that I don't know who his handcuff is. Personally, I don't think Ridley is more talented than Stacy. The only reason anyone would think that is due to the offenses they were in. Ridley ran behind a good offensive line on a great offense while Stacy ran behind a sub-par line on a terrible offense. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Powell, too. He's been a solid guy for a few years. Gailey will play whoever fits his offense. Hopefully we'll get some clarity on the depth chart soon.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

He does seem like a good deal now that he's in a Gailey offense. He is definitely a guy I'd want to handcuff, though. The problem is that I don't know who his handcuff is. Personally, I don't think Ridley is more talented than Stacy. The only reason anyone would think that is due to the offenses they were in. Ridley ran behind a good offensive line on a great offense while Stacy ran behind a sub-par line on a terrible offense. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Powell, too. He's been a solid guy for a few years. Gailey will play whoever fits his offense. Hopefully we'll get some clarity on the depth chart soon.

Not that it is the "be all, end all" of talent analysis, but Ridley was a third round pick and Stacy was a 5th round pick. Ridley looks to have better speed and every bit the toughness. I will agree that it's hard to evaluate them fairly though as NE has a very good run blocking line while the Rams did not.

 

[FF Ninja]

He does seem like a good deal now that he's in a Gailey offense. He is definitely a guy I'd want to handcuff, though. The problem is that I don't know who his handcuff is. Personally, I don't think Ridley is more talented than Stacy. The only reason anyone would think that is due to the offenses they were in. Ridley ran behind a good offensive line on a great offense while Stacy ran behind a sub-par line on a terrible offense. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Powell, too. He's been a solid guy for a few years. Gailey will play whoever fits his offense. Hopefully we'll get some clarity on the depth chart soon.

Not that it is the "be all, end all" of talent analysis, but Ridley was a third round pick and Stacy was a 5th round pick. Ridley looks to have better speed and every bit the toughness. I will agree that it's hard to evaluate them fairly though as NE has a very good run blocking line while the Rams did not.

Yeah, I think that matters very little now. Not that there is even a 1st round to 3rd round talent gap from 3rd to 5th on draft day. The distinction from 3rd to 5th was never that significant. But FWIW, Stacy ran a 4.55 while Ridley ran a 4.73 at the combine and 4.66 at his pro day. Now he's coming off a mid-season ACL tear. I seriously doubt Ridley was ever faster than Stacy, but especially at this point. They had similar agility scores (Stacy 10.85 vs. Ridley 10.99). Their draft position is probably the result of one playing for LSU and one playing for Vanderbilt. With Ridley missing time and never being trusted in the passing game I really don't understand why anyone would expect him to edge Stacy out. Stacy is cheap (2 years left on 5th round rookie contract) and Ridley's contract contained very little guaranteed money, right? Maybe it's the tattoo...

 

[Dr. Octopus]

He does seem like a good deal now that he's in a Gailey offense. He is definitely a guy I'd want to handcuff, though. The problem is that I don't know who his handcuff is. Personally, I don't think Ridley is more talented than Stacy. The only reason anyone would think that is due to the offenses they were in. Ridley ran behind a good offensive line on a great offense while Stacy ran behind a sub-par line on a terrible offense. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Powell, too. He's been a solid guy for a few years. Gailey will play whoever fits his offense. Hopefully we'll get some clarity on the depth chart soon.

Not that it is the "be all, end all" of talent analysis, but Ridley was a third round pick and Stacy was a 5th round pick. Ridley looks to have better speed and every bit the toughness. I will agree that it's hard to evaluate them fairly though as NE has a very good run blocking line while the Rams did not.

Yeah, I think that matters very little now. Not that there is even a 1st round to 3rd round talent gap from 3rd to 5th on draft day. The distinction from 3rd to 5th was never that significant. But FWIW, Stacy ran a 4.55 while Ridley ran a 4.73 at the combine and 4.66 at his pro day. Now he's coming off a mid-season ACL tear. I seriously doubt Ridley was ever faster than Stacy, but especially at this point. They had similar agility scores (Stacy 10.85 vs. Ridley 10.99). Their draft position is probably the result of one playing for LSU and one playing for Vanderbilt. With Ridley missing time and never being trusted in the passing game I really don't understand why anyone would expect him to edge Stacy out. Stacy is cheap (2 years left on 5th round rookie contract) and Ridley's contract contained very little guaranteed money, right? Maybe it's the tattoo...

If Rex Ryan was still the coach, the tattoo would probably guarantee him the starting spot.

Thanks for the 40 times - Ridley seems faster when I watch them play but that could be a function of generally having more running room due to better blocking.

 

[JFS171]

I actually agree here that Stacy seems to make more sense as the handcuff... people just want to bury that guy. Ivory's a FA too, so I doubt the long-term answer is on the roster... but of guys signed past this year, would seem to me that Stacy's the best fit.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I actually agree here that Stacy seems to make more sense as the handcuff... people just want to bury that guy. Ivory's a FA too, so I doubt the long-term answer is on the roster... but of guys signed past this year, would seem to me that Stacy's the best fit.

As a fan of the team I was glad they traded a late pick for Stacy. He's a solid all around back. Right now he gets the first shot to take the job. I don't think Ridley will be ready to start the season. I can see Ridley and Stacy battling it out for the starting job with a rookie next season, as well. Ivory isn't any elite level talent himself and has never shown to be durable.

 

[FF Ninja]

Just for the sake of argument... What if Powell is Fred Jackson here? Let's not forget that even when Spiller was averaging 6 ypc and over 10 ypr, Fred Jackson was still getting almost 16 looks per game (carries + targets) while averaging 3.8 ypc and 6.4 ypr. Strange decision by Gailey there.

 

[satch]

Gailey seems impressed by Ivory. Ivory has reportedly "been doing everything " in camp, including receiving passes. He has taken the majority of 1st team reps and is also the goal line back. He got the start in preseason game 2 and produced rushing and receiving.

Ivory has flashed before, and it's starting to look like he may get a workhorse type of opportunity this year and a fresh start under a new regime. So far it looks like he's focused on taking advantage of this opportunity. Brandon Marshall said recently, "The offense starts with Chris Ivory, that's what it starts with - Chris Ivory and the hogs up front."

That tells me all I need to hear. At his current 7th/8th round ADP Chris Ivory screams value right now as a solid RB2 with RB1 upside.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Gailey seems impressed by Ivory. Ivory has reportedly "been doing everything " in camp, including receiving passes. He has taken the majority of 1st team reps and is also the goal line back. He got the start in preseason game 2 and produced rushing and receiving.

Ivory has flashed before, and it's starting to look like he may get a workhorse type of opportunity this year and a fresh start under a new regime. So far it looks like he's focused on taking advantage of this opportunity. Brandon Marshall said recently, "The offense starts with Chris Ivory, that's what it starts with - Chris Ivory and the hogs up front." That tells me all I need to hear.

At his current 7th/8th round ADP Chris Ivory screams value right now as a solid RB2 with RB1 upside.

I agree with the bolded part. Especially early season, we could put up some RB1 type games at a RB3 price.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Just for the sake of argument... What if Powell is Fred Jackson here? Let's not forget that even when Spiller was averaging 6 ypc and over 10 ypr, Fred Jackson was still getting almost 16 looks per game (carries + targets) while averaging 3.8 ypc and 6.4 ypr. Strange decision by Gailey there.

This is the problem, there really is no handcuff. We can argue Ridley vs. Stacy but Powell has the best hands and would likely monopolize 3rd down work if Ivory were to go down. There's so much to like about Ivory and I still think he's good value but his injury history combined with no obvious handcuff means he's still high risk, in the sense that it could be a waste of a pick.

 

[FF Ninja]

Just for the sake of argument... What if Powell is Fred Jackson here? Let's not forget that even when Spiller was averaging 6 ypc and over 10 ypr, Fred Jackson was still getting almost 16 looks per game (carries + targets) while averaging 3.8 ypc and 6.4 ypr. Strange decision by Gailey there.

This is the problem, there really is no handcuff. We can argue Ridley vs. Stacy but Powell has the best hands and would likely monopolize 3rd down work if Ivory were to go down. There's so much to like about Ivory and I still think he's good value but his injury history combined with no obvious handcuff means he's still high risk, in the sense that it could be a waste of a pick.

Now to argue against myself... I believe Fred Jackson was utilized often simply because he was the RB that was in the game solely due to his pass blocking. Spiller was an average at best pass blocker (which is why he's perfect for Sean Payton - his backs rarely block) but Fred was a plus blocker. If Ivory, Ridley, or Stacy can block as well as Powell, he might not pose as much of a problem. I don't think Fred Jackson actually had better hands than Spiller, so I don't think Powell's hands will be what determines his playing time. It'll be the blocking.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Just for the sake of argument... What if Powell is Fred Jackson here? Let's not forget that even when Spiller was averaging 6 ypc and over 10 ypr, Fred Jackson was still getting almost 16 looks per game (carries + targets) while averaging 3.8 ypc and 6.4 ypr. Strange decision by Gailey there.

This is the problem, there really is no handcuff. We can argue Ridley vs. Stacy but Powell has the best hands and would likely monopolize 3rd down work if Ivory were to go down. There's so much to like about Ivory and I still think he's good value but his injury history combined with no obvious handcuff means he's still high risk, in the sense that it could be a waste of a pick.

Now to argue against myself... I believe Fred Jackson was utilized often simply because he was the RB that was in the game solely due to his pass blocking. Spiller was an average at best pass blocker (which is why he's perfect for Sean Payton - his backs rarely block) but Fred was a plus blocker. If Ivory, Ridley, or Stacy can block as well as Powell, he might not pose as much of a problem. I don't think Fred Jackson actually had better hands than Spiller, so I don't think Powell's hands will be what determines his playing time. It'll be the blocking.

Powell is the superior pass blocker - but it's not like he's outstanding at it. Powell is the typical "jack of all trades, master of none". He's a solid all around back, but is far from special at any aspect (even as a pass catcher). In the past he likely "earned" the third down role, simply because no one else was there to handle it, and Ivory wasn't considered a good pass catcher. With that said he's likely to keep the role because they probably don't want to overwork Ivory given his injury history.

 

[Faust]

A faster Chris Ivory needs 1,000 yards for Jets to challenge for playoffs:

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/53456/a-faster-chris-ivory-needs-1000-yards-for-jets-to-challenge-for-playoffs

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Not every fantasy RB need be handcuffed... in fact, most shouldn't be. Waste of a roster spot, except in very deep leagues.

 

[satch]

Not every fantasy RB need be handcuffed... in fact, most shouldn't be. Waste of a roster spot, except in very deep leagues.

Agreed. Sure, in some cases there is a good handcuff who could presumably step in and play well for the injured starter, but in most cases when the starter goes down it becomes rbbc.In the rare cases where there is a decent handcuff they don't usually produce as well as the injured starter, so the benefits of rostering said handcuff are outweiged by the lack of usuable lineup options, trade-able commodities, and depth throughout the season.

In certain situations a quality handcuff can be considered a bonus when drafting the starter, but I would never consider the lack of a quality handcuff as a negative factor when assessing/drafting starting RBs. In most cases, the downside of drafting handcuffs outweighs the upside.

 

[Restricted]

Not every fantasy RB need be handcuffed... in fact, most shouldn't be. Waste of a roster spot, except in very deep leagues.

Agreed. Sure, in some cases there is a good handcuff who could presumably step in and play well for the injured starter, but in most cases when the starter goes down it becomes rbbc.In the rare cases where there is a decent handcuff they don't usually produce as well as the injured starter, so the benefits of rostering said handcuff are outweiged by the lack of usuable lineup options, trade-able commodities, and depth throughout the season.

In certain situations a quality handcuff can be considered a bonus when drafting the starter, but I would never consider the lack of a quality handcuff as a negative factor when assessing/drafting starting RBs. In most cases, the downside of drafting handcuffs outweighs the upside.

With handcuffs you have to look at the team and the talent. Jets rank no in both and Ivory's handcuff isnt worth targeting

 

[SameSongNDance]

For the record I very rarely handcuff my RB but there are special cases where I won't grab a player with an extensive injury history unless I feel confident in their cuff. For me it was Blue with Foster last year. A great example this year is Cameron Artis-Payne and JStew. I'm talking about players with a blatantly obvious high propensity for injury. If Ivory's ADP continues to climb (he's getting a very fair amount of hype) I'd be very tentative because there's no clear way to insulate yourself from injury. Again..

The Jets running back played in only 22 games over three seasons at Washington State because of injuries, achieving rushing stats in 14 of them (thanks to sports-reference.com).

When he transferred to Tiffin University after getting kicked off the Cougars he played very well in five games before a knee injury sidelined him for the rest of the season. Between both schools Ivory never played more than five consecutive games in college.

Ivory went undrafted but the Saints picked him up before the 2010 season. That year he hurt his knee (MCL), suffered a concussion, a separated shoulder and a hamstring strain before a Lisfranc injury capped his season. Only three of the injuries (knee, hamstring, foot) cost him playing time -- he managed to play in 11 straight games (12 total).

A sports hernia in August of 2011 forced him to begin that year on the PUP list. He was activated in Week 9 but was out for Weeks 10-14 with a hamstring injury. Ivory played in six games in 2011 with a high of four consecutive games.

During OTAs in the spring of 2012 he hurt his hamstring and was a "healthy scratch" until November. He played five straight games before his hamstrings cost him three more games.

Ivory already cost himself 17 days of camp this summer (2014) with a hamstring problem.

Ivory is a violent runner with a high propensity for injury. I was rather surprised he lasted all of last year but I think that has a lot to do with Rex limiting him to 12 carries per game.

 

[FF Ninja]

Not every fantasy RB need be handcuffed... in fact, most shouldn't be. Waste of a roster spot, except in very deep leagues.

Agreed, but I only play in deep leagues and right now you can grab Stacy as your very last pick. If he's actually the handcuff, that's cheap insurance for a guy who has been somewhat fragile during his career.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Ivory forced 52 missed tackles, the fourth most in the league. All of the other three backs ahead of him had over 100 more touches than Ivory had on the season.

Pretty crazy. For those trotting him out there as their RB2, how confident do feel about him vs. CLE?

 

[ahartig]

Not extremely, debating between him, Abdullah, or Wheaton in Flex. I really want to believe.

 

[Restricted]

Ivory forced 52 missed tackles, the fourth most in the league. All of the other three backs ahead of him had over 100 more touches than Ivory had on the season.

Pretty crazy. For those trotting him out there as their RB2, how confident do feel about him vs. CLE?

Considering a strong start. Bought in all leagues and expects a break out season though...

 

[Yenrub]

Ivory forced 52 missed tackles, the fourth most in the league. All of the other three backs ahead of him had over 100 more touches than Ivory had on the season.

Pretty crazy. For those trotting him out there as their RB2, how confident do feel about him vs. CLE?

Leaning toward Ivory over Jennings and DeAndre Hopkins as my flex (RB2 or WR3) this week

Not all that confident in Ivory but then again I’m not sure about the other guys either

 

[Deranged Hermit]

Ivory forced 52 missed tackles, the fourth most in the league. All of the other three backs ahead of him had over 100 more touches than Ivory had on the season.

Pretty crazy. For those trotting him out there as their RB2, how confident do feel about him vs. CLE?

Considering a strong start. Bought in all leagues and expects a break out season though...

I need him for two weeks before Bell comes back, so I'm hoping for the best. The Jets are just so dang bad though.

 

[Chaka]

I'm pretty confident in him. Everything that has come out of Jets camp this offseason has had Ivory as the clear #1 RB and considering Ridley is on the PUP there is no shot of Ivory being unseated until week 7 at the earliest.

I don't see why he can't/won't be a 15+ touch RB until then.

 

[Dizzy]

Ivory forced 52 missed tackles, the fourth most in the league. All of the other three backs ahead of him had over 100 more touches than Ivory had on the season.

Pretty crazy. For those trotting him out there as their RB2, how confident do feel about him vs. CLE?

Considering a strong start. Bought in all leagues and expects a break out season though...

I need him for two weeks before Bell comes back, so I'm hoping for the best. The Jets are just so dang bad though.

I think you're in a perfect situation. Easy to see him get off to a very good (fast) start. I think week 2-3 question will be; "Chris Ivory - Keep him or trade him?"

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Ivory forced 52 missed tackles, the fourth most in the league. All of the other three backs ahead of him had over 100 more touches than Ivory had on the season.

Pretty crazy. For those trotting him out there as their RB2, how confident do feel about him vs. CLE?

Considering a strong start. Bought in all leagues and expects a break out season though...

I need him for two weeks before Bell comes back, so I'm hoping for the best. The Jets are just so dang bad though.

How do you know? They have a new OC, a new QB and a new stud WR.

 

[FF Ninja]

Ivory forced 52 missed tackles, the fourth most in the league. All of the other three backs ahead of him had over 100 more touches than Ivory had on the season.

Pretty crazy. For those trotting him out there as their RB2, how confident do feel about him vs. CLE?

Considering a strong start. Bought in all leagues and expects a break out season though...

I need him for two weeks before Bell comes back, so I'm hoping for the best. The Jets are just so dang bad though.

How do you know? They have a new OC, a new QB and a new stud WR.

People should stop thinking about last year. Ivory is essentially on a new team. He may not make it 16 games, but if he is the featured back in this offense he could easily put up RB1 numbers on a PPG basis.

 

[rockaction]

Ivory forced 52 missed tackles, the fourth most in the league. All of the other three backs ahead of him had over 100 more touches than Ivory had on the season.

Pretty crazy. For those trotting him out there as their RB2, how confident do feel about him vs. CLE?

Considering a strong start. Bought in all leagues and expects a break out season though...

I need him for two weeks before Bell comes back, so I'm hoping for the best. The Jets are just so dang bad though.

How do you know? They have a new OC, a new QB and a new stud WR.

People should stop thinking about last year. Ivory is essentially on a new team. He may not make it 16 games, but if he is the featured back in this offense he could easily put up RB1 numbers on a PPG basis.

I drafted Ivory pretty early in a 14-teamer (third round at 3.05), which is 33 overall, and about what the cheat sheet for my league would say, and I plan on starting him with confidence. The Jets thumped the Giants badly in their last real dress rehearsal preseason game. They blew them off of the ball and Ivory ran fiercely. 6-38 for 6.3 YPC.

The Jets are not so dang bad either, even though I'm a homer. As Dr. Octopus pointed out, they've got a decent line, a somewhat competent if not rocket-armed QB, some new offensive weapons, etc. Chan Gailey is a wildly better OC than Tony Sparano and Mary Morhhinweg. If Ivory can stay healthy (always the million dollar question) then he should have a career year.

 

[bb7278]

Ivory forced 52 missed tackles, the fourth most in the league. All of the other three backs ahead of him had over 100 more touches than Ivory had on the season.

Pretty crazy. For those trotting him out there as their RB2, how confident do feel about him vs. CLE?

Considering a strong start. Bought in all leagues and expects a break out season though...

I need him for two weeks before Bell comes back, so I'm hoping for the best. The Jets are just so dang bad though.

How do you know? They have a new OC, a new QB and a new stud WR.

People should stop thinking about last year. Ivory is essentially on a new team. He may not make it 16 games, but if he is the featured back in this offense he could easily put up RB1 numbers on a PPG basis.

I drafted Ivory pretty early in a 14-teamer (third round at 3.05), which is 33 overall, and about what the cheat sheet for my league would say, and I plan on starting him with confidence. The Jets thumped the Giants badly in their last preseason game. They blew them off of the ball and Ivory ran fiercely. 6-38 for 6.3 YPC.

The Jets are not so dang bad either, even though I'm a homer. As Dr. Octopus pointed out, they've got a decent line, a somewhat competent if not rocket-armed QB, some new offensive weapons, etc. Chan Gailey is a wildly better OC than Tony Sparano and Mary Morhhinweg. If Ivory can stay healthy (always the million dollar question) then he should have a career year.

Another guru who took him in the 3rd round! I just got him there on Tuesday, RB's went early, took him over Gordon/Randle/Stewart/Yeldon/Ellington/Abdullah who were the next RB's taken.

I think Gailey/Marshall and the uninspiring stability of Fitz can really help here, I have high hopes for a Beast Mode Light season.

 

[JFS171]

Highly confident here... Ivory is plenty talented and now actually has an OC that puts his players in the best position to succeed. Much better passing game than last year...

Cleveland was terrible against the run last year and may get blown out in this game. Ivory should be good for 18 touches this week... plus I think he's involved in the passing game more than folks think.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I'm on board with the Jets being better than expected; looking at a middle of the road offense, IMO.

I am pondering Ivory over Lamar Miller this week. Washington was good vs run last year, an if Miami blows them out, I don't think Miller will be in there to finish the game.

 

[Swing 51]

Sitting Ivory for McCoy and Martin and not too confident that is the smart move, due to matchups. Will probably try to trade Ivory after this week because you know the inevitable injury is coming.

 

[Koya]

Likely starting him vs. a fairly underrated (for this week) Deangelo Williams, who should get a lot of looks tonight. Would be more a no brainer if not for the chance to watch DW tonight, but I think the clincher here is the opponent. Can't see the Jets being too far out of this game, if for no other reason than Cle sucks, and even if Cleveland plays "well" on offense, you assume it's behind Crowell... not a light up the score and Jets abandon the run likelihood.

 

[matttyl]

Expectations for this guy this year? 1,100 rushing out of the question?

 

[Chaka]

Expectations for this guy this year? 1,100 rushing out of the question?

Not at all. He had 944 total yards last year. 821 rushing on 198 attempts which represented only 39% of all the Jets rush attempts and 50% of all attempts by Jets RBs (taking out QB/WR attempts).

I just did some research into Chan Gailey because we can't expect Ivory to be in the same offensive philosophy as last season. Here is what he has done with his running game during his tenure as an OC and HC.

Year Team Total Team RB ATT Lead Back (carries-receptions) Rush-Rec TDs % of RB Carries

1989 Den 486 B.Humphrey (294-22) 7-1 60%
1990 Den 398 B.Humphrey (288-24) 7-0 72%
1996 Pit 454 Bettis (320-22) 11-0 70%
1997 Pit 467 Bettis (375-15) 7-2 80%
1998 Dal 450 Emmitt (319-27) 13-2 71%
1999 Dal 450 Emmitt (329-27) 11-2 73%
2000 Mia 433 Lamar Smith (309-31) 14-2 71%
2001 Mia 382 Lamar Smith (313-30) 6-2 82%
2008 KC 311 L.Johnson (193-12) 5-0
2010 Buf 347 F.Jax (222-31) 5-2 64%
2011 Buf 313 F.Jax (170-39) 6-0 54%
2012 Buf 378 Spiller (207-43) 6-2 55%

I highlighted Lamar Smith & Bobby Humphrey because I believe these to be the best comps for Ivory in regards to talent and situation. For talent I like Ivory but he isn't Bettis, Emmitt or Larry Johnson. And, at least right now, the Jets simply do not have a F.Jax/Spiller talent situation, it is clearly Ivory's show until he either breaks down or Ridley comes in and demonstrates that he is a legitimate threat to Ivory's touches and that won't be until week 8 (IIRC).

So it looks like Gailey will give his lead back around 70% of the total carries (maybe more if that RB is rolling) and put him in position to catch around 30 passes. As much as all the Ivory owners would like to see a repeat of Lamar Smith's 2000 campaign I think a more realistic estimate of Ivory's TD production is O/U 7. So now the question becomes "How many RB rushing plays will the Jets be in position to call this year?"

They are not a very good team on paper (at least most people seem to think that) so if you look at the low end we are talking maybe 310 carries which puts Ivory in line for about 217 carries, at last season's YPC of 4.1 that gives him 890 rush yards. I would put that as his floor for rushing yards. Throw in about 25 catches and he should at least match what he did last season.

If you think they can manage 350 or 400 rushes this year (they managed 390 last year) then Ivory's ceiling is actually pretty tempting with maybe 1,150 rush yards using the conservative 4.1 YPC from last year which was his career low YPC (still 25 receptions IMO) and maybe he hits the over on TDs.

Not bad for where you likely drafted him.

 

[matttyl]

I just traded a likely early 2016 1st for him and a likely early (same team) 2017 1st. Hoping for the best (and Chubb in 2017).

 

[TartanLion]

Sitting Ivory for McCoy and Martin and not too confident that is the smart move, due to matchups. Will probably try to trade Ivory after this week because you know the inevitable injury is coming.

I've got Martin in over him right now, but tbh I think I may switch the two. Just got a good feel about Ivory this season

 

[Chaka]

Sitting Ivory for McCoy and Martin and not too confident that is the smart move, due to matchups. Will probably try to trade Ivory after this week because you know the inevitable injury is coming.

For McCoy, Martin or Ivory?