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CJ Anderson V Jeremy Hill (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter xenon
- Start date
VaTerp
Footballguy
I have Anderson 3 spots ahead of Hill in PPR. I really like both and Hill's ability/size combo is better. But I think Anderson has the better situation this year with Kubiak in Denver. I like Peyton Manning's feature RBs in FF if their healthy and I like Kubiak's feature RB a lot when healthy too. Anderson is in a really good situation with a coach who pubicly says he likes using a guy for 3 downs.
Hill has the clearer cuff but its an expensive one in Bernard who has value of his own. Ball or Hillman are guys you can get late and hope you get the right one.
Hill has the clearer cuff but its an expensive one in Bernard who has value of his own. Ball or Hillman are guys you can get late and hope you get the right one.
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NajehHejan
Footballguy
I see Hill ranked slightly higher but I see these guys as really close. Been debating these two guys as well. Think I like CJ a bit better due to the offense.
VaTerp
Footballguy
Hill's situation doesnt scare me either. But for this year, I like Anderson.
Dynasty give me Hill.
TripItUp
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
I don't see anywhere where he's higher than 15th overall. And that seems high for a mediocre talent with half of a proven season behind him. I would roll with Rodgers/Luck as the top tier QB over anderson right now. Floor > ceiling in the first two rounds.
TripItUp
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I will take Anderson in redraft. Hill in dynasty
I think a lot of us view CJ and Hill as the L Bell of 2015.
Speaking in terms of how Bell shook out last year.
CJ will get bell cow opportunity with a pretty talented Offense around him.
Hill will get most of the running opportunity will equally good Offense and probably a way better O line.
A lot to like with both.
Both guys are going late first, early second round right now.
Speaking in terms of how Bell shook out last year.
CJ will get bell cow opportunity with a pretty talented Offense around him.
Hill will get most of the running opportunity will equally good Offense and probably a way better O line.
A lot to like with both.
Both guys are going late first, early second round right now.
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Spanky24
Footballguy
Targets 1a and 1b in my upcoming auction. Both can be had for less $ than the big 5 backs but both could end up near the top of the fantasy world by seasons end. However, I have CJ rated just a touch higher in redraft based on schedule alone. Bengals could be playing from behind often which means more Gio late in games. Just my opinion.
Shutout
Footballguy
I don't think it's enough of a difference spending significant time pondering it. I would probably spend my time trying to find advantages somewhere else, studying other players.
I can envision scenarios where either player blows the other away but the consensus is they are very close and there probably isn't a reason to nitpick this given it is reasonable they finish in the same tier.
I can envision scenarios where either player blows the other away but the consensus is they are very close and there probably isn't a reason to nitpick this given it is reasonable they finish in the same tier.
bigmiiiiike
Footballguy
As long as Gio is around, I think Hill's upside is limited. I agree that his talent is great, but SO IS GIO'S. Remember back to preseason time last year and Gio was going in the early 2nd round as the next Ray Rice. I think with a healthy Hill and Gio, we'll see weeks where Hill gets 20+ carries when the game script is favorable and he knocks out 150+ yards and 2 TDs, but we'll also see plenty of weeks where he gets 12-15 carries and will struggle to put up RB1 numbers.
I'm high on Anderson this year. The history of Manning RBs, Kubiak RBs gives me optimism. Kubiak historically goes with a bell cow and not an RBBC, so I have a hard time seeing how he doesn't pick up where he left off last year. His OL could be a weakness, but Manning has a way of making that appear minimal and the line last year was not great and Anderson still produced. I'm considering Anderson at my 1.06 pick in my main league (non-ppr).
I'm high on Anderson this year. The history of Manning RBs, Kubiak RBs gives me optimism. Kubiak historically goes with a bell cow and not an RBBC, so I have a hard time seeing how he doesn't pick up where he left off last year. His OL could be a weakness, but Manning has a way of making that appear minimal and the line last year was not great and Anderson still produced. I'm considering Anderson at my 1.06 pick in my main league (non-ppr).
Tau837
Footballguy
You mention pros for Anderson but do not address the con of their OL. By far their best run blocking OL last season was Orlando Franklin, who is now starting for the Chargers. They will have new (and young) starters at 3 or 4 positions on the line.
mikmak8902
Footballguy
I'm not understanding this logic as a reason to take Hill over CJ. Did Hill perform at an elite level for more than a half season in some other parallel universe that I missed?
In weeks 10-17, both backs were in the same exact situation they are going into this season in regards to talent, competition for carries, and opportunity.
Here are their numbers during that time frame from my main league:
CJ Anderson - 22.775 fantasy points per game
Jeremy Hill - 14.938 fantasy points per game
In redraft, why in the world would I take Hill over CJ??? What has changed going into this season that is going to make up 7 fantasy points per game to even make this a fair debate?
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
not only that but Gio Bernard is better than anyone behind CJA, plus I think Gio gets some catches that takes away from J.Hills value in PPR.
Not much of a debate IMO, Ill take CJA over Hill every draft
VaTerp
Footballguy
No doubt, the offensive line is a huge question mark and I'm interested in reading how the group is coming together in camp.Just Win Baby said:
Denver's line will be very young but with the transition to the zone scheme I'm betting on them being a better unit than many expect. I have a lot of faith in Kubiack and Dennison (maybe more than I should). Those 2 coaches have a track record of putting together lines whose sum produces greater than their parts. And even with Manning's end of season/playoff struggles we are still talking about a guy who put over 4700 yards and 39 TDs last year. They still have one of the best WRs in the game and I still believe that offense is going to move the ball. That along with a stronger commitment to the running game and Kubiack's desire to feature a 3 down RB has me very high on Anderson.
Shutout
Footballguy
I don't disagree, just think this is such a GREAT illustrator of how quickly the RB landscape (and value) changes in FF.
If you said this as recently as 13 months ago, you would have been bashed because
1)of course...because Gio is the MAN in Cincy now,
2)But...but..Montee Ball is a top 5 dynasty Rb and all you Eddie Lacy guys will be sorry, and
3) Are you serious? This cj-3po or whoever isn't even going to make the team and if he does, Ronnie Hillman is the CLEAR upside handcuff to the top 5 dynasty Montee Ball.
In one year, there are FIVE Rbs whose stock is almost completely flipped upside down. Maybe that says more about this whole question than anything.
mikmak8902
Footballguy
Agreed ... situation is the one variable that is the most volatile in the NFL. Talent is the constant.
I completely understand why so many are on Hill over CJ ... FOR DYNASTY. For redraft, the situational volatility is minimized somewhat although certainly not eliminated. Do I think CJ will continue to outscore Hill at a 7ppg clip? Nope ... but I think he'll outscore him.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
If Gio didn't get hurt, JHill probably doenst get his shot as early.
sprinkle in injuries to Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman, Denver was out of options, CJA ran with it.
RBs get hurt, a lot, that's why I tend not to invest heavily in them in redrafts anymore. and Snag people like Jhill/CJA off the wire or late in drafts.
jurb26
Footballguy
I'm trying to see the CJ "situation" as favorable as many of you do, but I just don't see it. Online in sever turnover, lost star TE and Manning aging another year. Hill seems to have the more favorable situation IMO. Basically no change from last year other than he is going to be the lean man from day one and they get a healthy Green/Effert back.
One team appears to have gotten better. The other appears to have gotten worse. The Gio angle is being overplayed IMO.
ebcpastor2004
Footballguy
Had this exact choice in a 4 keeper ppr league. I won it last year on the backs of OBJ (picked up before he blew up) & CJA (same thing). Also have Lacy & Calvin. Easy 3 keeper choices were Odell, Calvin, & Lacy. I went with Hill over CJA because of the keeper component, but I really wanted to keep Anderson. Traded him for what I could get (1.4).
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mikmak8902
Footballguy
We could play this game all day.
Denver
- Manning > Dalton
- Addition of Kubiak
- Kubiak repeatedly stating CJ is their bellcow back this offseason
- Kubiak is already talking about running more in the red zone this year
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/8694/cj-anderson
Cincinatti
- Dalton<Peyton
- Healthy Eifert, Gio, Marvin Jones, and AJ Green
- Hue Jackson plans to open up the offense this year (makes sense with all those weapons back)
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000504585/article/hue-jackson-bengals-to-open-pandoras-box-more
"We're going to open Pandora's box more," Jackson said. "We tickled it a little bit last year. We're going to open it up a little bit more this year and be who I think we can be..."
jurb26
Footballguy
I don't know what game you think we're playing but it doesn't seem to align with what I'm talking about.
mikmak8902
Footballguy
LOL ... I'm referring to the game where we start listing a bunch of different variables that support our argument and ignore the fact that one player crushed the other player in ppg last season with both players being in incredibly similar situations to this upcoming season.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
why is the Gio angle being overplayed? he is threat to his stats, especially in PPR IMO. when both are 100% I could see a RBBC evolve. They are both talented players.
georg013
Footballguy
Three words that hold little weight in a debate... I could see
mikmak8902
Footballguy
Let's look at it this way.
Over the last 9 weeks of the 2015 season, Jeremy Hill rushed 172 times for 929 yards. That's 19.1 rushes per game at a 5.40ypc clip. Very very impressive.
He got those 172 carries with Gio, Eifert, AJ, and Marvin Jones missing significant time, if not the entire season.
With all those injuries, it's understandable that the Cincinatti Bengals ranked 6th in the league in rush attempts last season with 30.2 rushing attempts per game.
Can we all agree that with all those players coming back healthy and Hue Jackson being quoted saying they will open up the offense, that it is unlikely Hill will carry the ball more than the 19.1 carry per game avg during his incredibly productive 2nd half of the season?
If we are all in agreement, the only way for him to increase his fantasy points per game would be one or all of the 3 following ways:
1. Catch more passes. Let's just scratch this one off the list now. With all those receivers back, his catches are likely to go down, not up.
2. Increase his YPC. I guess it's possible especially with all those weapons coming back to stretch the field but will he really improve on 5.4ypc? I mean you would be talking about getting into record ypc range.
3. Score more touchdowns. This is the most plausible path to increased fantasy points. During the last 9 games of the 2015 season he scored 6 touchdowns.
I personally think the safe bet is that his catches will go down, TD's will go up, and his YPC will stay around the same. Although, I do believe his carries will drop into the 16-17 range per game.
So with all that said we are likely to see a slight increase or no change in his fantasy ppg this upcoming season.
With all that said, CJ is going to have to lose 7 fantasy points per game to simply make these two backs even. Are we thinking the departure of Julius Thomas and Peyton being one year older is going to cause that kind of drop?
Over the last 9 weeks of the 2015 season, Jeremy Hill rushed 172 times for 929 yards. That's 19.1 rushes per game at a 5.40ypc clip. Very very impressive.
He got those 172 carries with Gio, Eifert, AJ, and Marvin Jones missing significant time, if not the entire season.
With all those injuries, it's understandable that the Cincinatti Bengals ranked 6th in the league in rush attempts last season with 30.2 rushing attempts per game.
Can we all agree that with all those players coming back healthy and Hue Jackson being quoted saying they will open up the offense, that it is unlikely Hill will carry the ball more than the 19.1 carry per game avg during his incredibly productive 2nd half of the season?
If we are all in agreement, the only way for him to increase his fantasy points per game would be one or all of the 3 following ways:
1. Catch more passes. Let's just scratch this one off the list now. With all those receivers back, his catches are likely to go down, not up.
2. Increase his YPC. I guess it's possible especially with all those weapons coming back to stretch the field but will he really improve on 5.4ypc? I mean you would be talking about getting into record ypc range.
3. Score more touchdowns. This is the most plausible path to increased fantasy points. During the last 9 games of the 2015 season he scored 6 touchdowns.
I personally think the safe bet is that his catches will go down, TD's will go up, and his YPC will stay around the same. Although, I do believe his carries will drop into the 16-17 range per game.
So with all that said we are likely to see a slight increase or no change in his fantasy ppg this upcoming season.
With all that said, CJ is going to have to lose 7 fantasy points per game to simply make these two backs even. Are we thinking the departure of Julius Thomas and Peyton being one year older is going to cause that kind of drop?
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
I am not really sure why people bring up losing Julius Thomas as some blow to Anderson. Julius was hobbled and had maybe 15 catches the second half of the season when Anderson was going off.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Meatwad Reloaded
Footballguy
Dude...if all of those guys you listed are healthy, the Bengals could possibly have a juggernaut offense. That means there will be way more yards and scores to be had.
mikmak8902
Footballguy
I don't think the Red Rifle will ever lead a "juggernaut" offense. Also, define "way more".
So, Dalton isn't good enough to pass the ball a lot but with his receivers back, he'll pass the ball a lot?
The Bengals ran the ball a lot simply because they were successful doing it and they were winning. If they are successful at running and winning again this year, they will run the ball a lot again. The presence of Eifert and Jones isn't going to turn them into a pass first team.
Not really. Sure, Eifert and Jones were out the whole year but Gio missed 3 games and AJG missed a total of zero games over the last 9 weeks when Hill got those carries. If they're not blown out every game, Hill will again get around 18-20 carries per game, like he did the last 6 games when Gio and Hill were both healthy.
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Dismattle
Footballguy
So you don't think most DC's will gameplan for "8 in the box" for a W? Or Are you saying the OC wont think much of running the ball, even if its been successful.
I just cant see the excess of yards that some posts seem to misrepresent..
mikmak8902
Footballguy
I said he wouldn't lead a "juggernaut" offense. I can't remember any "juggernaut" offense that was lead by anything less than an elite quarterback. I also said nothing about them passing "alot". I simply quoted their offensive coordinator who said they will be opening up the offense this year.
Very good point. I totally forgot that AJ was there during Hill's great run in the 2nd half of the season. I don't remember him being extra-ordinarily healthy but he produced nice numbers so, healthy or not, he was stretching the defense.
Cincinatti was 6th in rushing attempts last year and 25th in passing attempts. I don't think it's much of a stretch to assume that with the return of a couple receivers and the OC publicly stating they will open up the offense, the offense will be a bit more balanced in 2015.
Others have mentioned on these boards that Hue Jackson is a run-heavy OC but I disagree. He had to be in Oakland in 2010 and 2011. In 2007, when he was the OC of the Falcons, they ranked 29th in rush attempts and 3rd in pass attempts. Washington was 12th in pass attempts and 21st in rush attempts in 2003 when he was their OC.
I don't think the Bengals will pass the ball alot, however, I feel they will most likely throw a bit more ... just as Hue Jackson has mentioned. That's why I dropped Hill's carries per game a touch. With your correction on AJ, I would move Hill's carries to 17-18 per game.
Even if his carries stayed at 19.1 per game, I don't see him making up the 7ppg difference between him and CJ without Anderson experiencing a huge drop in production. And that is really the whole point of this thread. It's not to bash Hill. I'm a big Hill fan. It's just to be realistic with our expectations and back up our choice of one over the other with actually facts and analysis.
..... and thank you for squaring away one of my facts. I was definitely factoring in AJ's injury last year much more than I should have considering he played during every game of Hill's great run.
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ImTheScientist
Footballguy
I drafted Hill over Anderson last night.
PR Sparty
Footballguy
mikmak8902
Footballguy
dynasty or redraft?ImTheScientist said:
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
PPR... FPC draft Bengals have a far better O line, staff has shown they will ride Hill, run the ball more in the redzone than any team in the league, kubiac is a wildcard, the offensive line of Denver worries me, hill is more talented. I picked him at 17 overall .... So in round 2.
I would go Anderson over Murray fwiw.
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mikmak8902
Footballguy
I agree with all points. I'm a big hill fan.
The only problem is those things you just mentioned were all accurate last season as well (except for kubiak) and CJ outscored Hill by 7ppg.
Kubiak is widely thought of as a plus to CJ's situation.
1. He has already publicly stated he sees CJ as his cowbell back.
2. His zone running scheme may help with the deficiencies in the offensive line.
3. Kubiak has already publicly stated he wants to run the ball MORE.
Oh ... and for whoever it was pointing out earlier that losing Julius Thomas is a blow to CJ, Thomas only had 69 targets last year. Half of the elite TE's in the league.
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