Utter Chaos
Footballguy
Remaining Games:
Cleveland (9-5) - @houston, NY Jets, @Cincinnati
Baltimore (11-3) - @San Francisco, Miami, Pittsburgh
Miami (10-4) - Dallas, @Baltimore, Buffalo
Kansas City (9-5) - Las Vegas, Cincinnati, @LA Chargers
First of all, the Browns would have to win all 3 of their games. Houston could be tough but if Stroud doesn't play it will be a whole lot easier. They should beat the Jets with no problem (but with Cleveland you never know). The Bengals game could go either way (especially if Cincinnati is fighting for a playoff spot) but the Browns have owned the Bengals the last couple of years. That puts the Browns at 12-5.
Baltimore would have to lose two for a tie. Let's say they lose to San Fran and Miami and beat Pittsburgh. The first three division tie breakers are head-to-head (both would be 1-1), division record (both would be 4-2), common opponents (both would be 9-3). The next tie breaker is conference record. Cleveland would be 9-3 and Baltimore 8-4 so Cleveland would win the division. A Baltimore loss to Pittsburgh would give Cleveland the better division record (4-2 vs 3-3).
The number one seed tie breaker is a) winning percentage, b) head-to-head, c) conference winning percentage, d) common opponent winning percentage, e) strength of victory.
A tie with Kansas City or a 3-way tie with Kansas City and Miami would give the number 1 seed to Kansas City based on conference winning percentage so Kansas City would need to lose a game.
A tie with Miami would give the number 1 seed to Cleveland based on conference winning percentage (provided they lose to Baltimore or Buffalo).
So basically, here is the scenario to give Cleveland the number one seed:
Cleveland finishes 12-5, Baltimore finishes 12-5, Miami finishes 12-5 (with a loss to Baltimore or Buffalo) or 11-6 (with a victory over Baltimore) and Kansas City finishes 11-6
I figure the odds of Cleveland winning all three at 40%, Baltimore losing two at 20%, Miami losing two at 60%, and Kansas City losing one at 10%.
Cleveland (9-5) - @houston, NY Jets, @Cincinnati
Baltimore (11-3) - @San Francisco, Miami, Pittsburgh
Miami (10-4) - Dallas, @Baltimore, Buffalo
Kansas City (9-5) - Las Vegas, Cincinnati, @LA Chargers
First of all, the Browns would have to win all 3 of their games. Houston could be tough but if Stroud doesn't play it will be a whole lot easier. They should beat the Jets with no problem (but with Cleveland you never know). The Bengals game could go either way (especially if Cincinnati is fighting for a playoff spot) but the Browns have owned the Bengals the last couple of years. That puts the Browns at 12-5.
Baltimore would have to lose two for a tie. Let's say they lose to San Fran and Miami and beat Pittsburgh. The first three division tie breakers are head-to-head (both would be 1-1), division record (both would be 4-2), common opponents (both would be 9-3). The next tie breaker is conference record. Cleveland would be 9-3 and Baltimore 8-4 so Cleveland would win the division. A Baltimore loss to Pittsburgh would give Cleveland the better division record (4-2 vs 3-3).
The number one seed tie breaker is a) winning percentage, b) head-to-head, c) conference winning percentage, d) common opponent winning percentage, e) strength of victory.
A tie with Kansas City or a 3-way tie with Kansas City and Miami would give the number 1 seed to Kansas City based on conference winning percentage so Kansas City would need to lose a game.
A tie with Miami would give the number 1 seed to Cleveland based on conference winning percentage (provided they lose to Baltimore or Buffalo).
So basically, here is the scenario to give Cleveland the number one seed:
Cleveland finishes 12-5, Baltimore finishes 12-5, Miami finishes 12-5 (with a loss to Baltimore or Buffalo) or 11-6 (with a victory over Baltimore) and Kansas City finishes 11-6
I figure the odds of Cleveland winning all three at 40%, Baltimore losing two at 20%, Miami losing two at 60%, and Kansas City losing one at 10%.
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