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QB Michael Penix Jr., ATL (1 Viewer)

One of the most perplexing first round picks that I can remember given the Cousins signing and it being the #8 overall pick in the draft with so many other talented positional players available. That’s all I’ve got. Well and Penix not being a younger prospect on top of that. Just bizarre.
 
The only logical way I can make sense of this is if they believe that Cousins is elite and can make them really good over the next 2-3 years and therefore, they will not have a top 10-15 pick in those years and are trying to take advantage of a top ten pick to select someone they feel is a QB of the future...
Then trade pick 8 for nothing but future picks
 
I think if they feel Penix is better they will. Trade Cousins and move on.

I'm playing chess and you're not.
Let's say they trade Cousins, it will cost them what $90 million in dead cap money and the pick they are likely to lose for tampering? Penix better win a couple Super Bowls to justify that for a player that never sees the field.
 
Atlanta playing chess against the rest of the NFL’s checkers, and it only cost them a measly $180M to fool everyone that they weren’t after a QB at #8. Genius level IMO. 😁
I haven't followed the team closely but I don't recall reading anyone saying that signing Cousins was a dumb move. Which, if they weren't even close & given his age we would have. Therefor, if he makes sense then investing in the future AND having a capable backup also makes sense. Oh, but they could've traded back & gotten him later. I can't speak to that, I'm not aware of what sort of move they may or may not have entertained. I do know that I wasn't able to make any sense of Penix being included in Washington's 4-QB party. There were any number of QB-needy teams selecting after Atlanta. We heard a lot about how the league liked McCarthy more so than the media & the public. Obviously, this was true of Penix jr. Seems reasonable to assume that if they didn't take him, he was coming off the board just a handful of picks later anyway. Dual objective pick, well done IMO.

EDIT: Meant to add Cousins injury, tough break, he didn't see that..... pocket of air coming straight at him!
 
If we really want to play some 5D chess, the Vikings just took a quarterback that needs some time to develop.

The Vikings would be brilliant to trade for Cousins.

Maybe even give the Falcons their tampering pick back
 
This makes zero sense on any level.

If ATL thinks they are competing: draft a player that helps now.
If they want to sit a QB behind Cousins for 2 years until they get rid of the contract: draft JJ.

Why give Cousins 100m when you know you like Penix?
The only explanation to me is that Cousins' health/rehab is way worse than thought.
 
Good move on the part of Penix, no reason to risk injury before securing a 1st rd rookie deal in the 2024 NFL Draft
He's shown what he can do, time to start booking scouts for his private workout prio to Draft Day
I'll start with this entry but will be bumping others I made a couple months back...

-Fact is Atlanta views themselves as a Playoff team which means all their future 1st Round picks next 2-3-4 seasons, the Falcons feel those picks will be later 1st round
Never gonna get a chance to pick that high again and so they took Michael Penix...I'm just trying to rationalize what others are discussing and condemning the Falcons for taking a QB
 
Chase Daniel
You CANT tell me Michael Penix Jr is NOT one of the Top 3 QB’s in this years class if you’ve actually broken down his film & watched him. If you say different, you don’t know ball.

He’s a magician out there. He put on a performance for the ages vs Texas in Sugar Bowl.
Lol. I like Penix, but I'm just curious if Chase Daniel thought Penix was a "magician" putting on a performance for the ages when he finally faced a real defense against Michigan.

Note: Not a directed at you personally, Faust.
Michigan played a high shell and dared Penix to throw short and mid. There is a big concern about this part of his game. I heard one analyst say it’s because of the angle how he throws that makes it not conducive for these types of throws. If this is truly a concern he will be off the board for the Broncos. Payton just got rid of a guy who couldn’t make these throws.
Penix has the best arm in this draft class in my opinion, but that's really the only thing about his game I like. He's got a really long release, poor mechanics, and mediocre accuracy.

I don't know if its the angle of how he throws that makes him struggle with shorter throws (it could be, that's for someone with a better scouting eye than me) but I think it could also be his slower release makes it easier for defenders to get a jump on throws in traffic. I always felt that was a big part of Jameis Winston's problem too. Daunte Culpepper had that issue too, once he lost Moss and defenses didn't just leave the short stuff open.

Personally, I've got Penix as QB6 in this draft, and while that doesn't mean I don't think he can be an NFL starter, as I like this class a lot, I think its a tougher needle for him to thread. I think he needs to probably sit for a year and work on mechanics. I worry that if he has to start as a rookie, its not gonna be pretty. Ideally someone like say, New Orleans would end up with him, where they can sit him behind Carr for a year, and he'll have at least 1 really good deep WR in Olave to grow with.

-And yet he completed over 65% of his passes the last 2 seasons...ARich was like under 55%, 52% perhaps? And you think Penix can't be accurate?
It's not just you but others that are also in this link. All good, just FTR, Penix completes a lot of throws
And since he can't toss a short ball according to all of you, he must be deadly down the field...

4,600+ pass yds and 31 TDs in '22
4,900+ pass yds and 36 TDs in '23
Took a school/team not usually considered a player to make the CFP and managed to get them to the Championship round, and apparently played NO ONE until Michigan
That's an incredibly short sighted Bio on this guy but again Trav, not solely directed at you.
Bump this one
 
I still dislike the Falcons taking Penix, he isn't likely to see the field a lot his first couple seasons and he's already 25-26 years old?
I looked it up, he's still 23 years old, he's not ancient but he played several years of college ball.
 
GMs were probably higher on Penix than us casuals
Cousins might not be healthy enough to start week 1 and his contract is really a 2 yr deal
Still a bit of a wild pick but it could work to have 2 viable starters when some teams have 0
 
In what I think was another half hearted attempt to defend the pick it was reported that they loved the way he threw his pro day and on the flight back home "everyone" fell in love with him because he threw it so well on a 40 degree day in the wind. Now the Falcons play 9 games minimum in a dome every year but forget that.

But if I'm getting this right after having the benefit of 6 seasons of college football to scout him they decided to sign Cousins for $45m a year but after watching him throw at a scripted pro day, when the whole world knew he had big time arm talent, that's when they moved to loving him and had to have him? What a process.

I'm not sure that's the defense of the pick they intended it to be. Also it was pointed out that if they want to move on from Cousins after two years they will have to deal with a $25M dead cap hit in what would be Penix's third season. So this just means even if Penix works out they likely only get one cheap year of QB pay on their cap, not the typical rookie QB cap advantage. What a clown show.

I'm not mad though. Don't play SF so never cared about Penix fantasy value, don't have Cousins, do have London and Pitts on some teams and having their team commit a wild amount of resources on the QB position is not at all bad for me personally. I just really hate seeing teams do stupid things.
 
Good move on the part of Penix, no reason to risk injury before securing a 1st rd rookie deal in the 2024 NFL Draft
He's shown what he can do, time to start booking scouts for his private workout prio to Draft Day
I'll start with this entry but will be bumping others I made a couple months back...

-Fact is Atlanta views themselves as a Playoff team which means all their future 1st Round picks next 2-3-4 seasons, the Falcons feel those picks will be later 1st round
Never gonna get a chance to pick that high again and so they took Michael Penix...I'm just trying to rationalize what others are discussing and condemning the Falcons for taking a QB
If they don't think they will pick high again, then trade the pick for future picks instead of now sitting the #8 pick and his salary for so long they won't even know if they should exercise his 5th year option when he will be 27 or 28 having not even played yet.
 
It wasn't the worst pick of round 1, but its up there. Either drafting Penix or signing Cousins was a bad move. This is a terrible use of resources. Atlanta is lucky they are in the NFL's worst division. I will stand by everything I've said about Penix so far. Him going #8 changes nothing for me. He was the 6th best QB on my board, and despite his age, the one that needed to sit the most. He'll get that chance at least in Atlanta.

I will say because it was mentioned during the broadcast last night, that Atlanta was looking at the Green Bay pattern of developing a QB for a while before taking over, and I think that's a really silly way to look at it, because Green Bay is a gigantic anomaly, where they had back-to-back HOFers, and if we are being fair, its too early to call Love a hit, even if its trending that way.

I saw the Falcons as the best team in their division after signing Cousins and moving on from Arthur Smith. They had a chance to really cement that at #8 and did this instead.
 
I will say because it was mentioned during the broadcast last night, that Atlanta was looking at the Green Bay pattern of developing a QB for a while before taking over, and I think that's a really silly way to look at it, because Green Bay is a gigantic anomaly, where they had back-to-back HOFers, and if we are being fair, its too early to call Love a hit, even if its trending that way.
Not only is Green Bay an anomaly, the situations aren't really comparable. Green Bay's QBs were starters for a decade when their successors were drafted. Cousins has yet to take a snap for MIN. Plus, the pick was also significantly higher.
 
The comparisons to Green Bay drafting Rodgers and then Love are interesting. Of course there are significant differences among the three picks and easy to pick apart any comparison, but I have to say the comments in here and elsewhere about Penix are uncannily similar to what was said about the Packers in making those draft picks when they had a good QB on the team. We could look back on both those draft nights in the FFA archives here and find almost identical comments - its not just a bad pick, its the worst pick of the draft or worst pick in team history, etc. They gave up a chance to immediately help the team when it has a good QB in place. With Rodgers and Love, those comments were wrong at the time and the picks were vindicated many times over. I wouldn't be too keen on drawing a hard line in the sand on this pick just yet.
 
I understand some concepts of the decision to draft Penix. 1. They must love the player. You have to think he is a franchise QB and love the player he is. 2. You do not like the quarterbacks in the following two classes. I'm pretty sure they review potential quarterbacks in the following two classes. 3. You feel you will not be near a draft slot to obtain a quarterback in the next two following classes, so winning records is almost a sure thing in the next two years in your mindset. 4. You have reviewed how the Packers drafted Jordan Love and think it worked for them; therefore, it should work for you. This goes back to loving the player enough to start a process of sitting him for two or more seasons. 5. You have a plan to develop Penix while he is sitting and are committed to this plan. 6. You feel comfortable that the incumbent QB is okay with the succession plan, and you are positive he will assist in the plan and process. Or you have a plan in place if the incumbent QB is not okay with the succession plan. The player has to be developed and maintained when he is not playing. The problem is the plan execution concept.

I do not understand: 1. How did you not involve Kirk in this plan before the draft night? I do not think this needs more explanation. It seems this would be a priority. 2. The main benefit of having a rookie QB on a rookie deal is playing said rookie on a rookie deal. 3. Are you not deciding on his 5th-year option before year 4? Is there a plan of extension instead of a 5th-year option? When do you plan on deciding what you have in Penix? Year three? Year four? How does Kirk Cousins's contract fit the succession plan? Is there an out in year two? Are you comfortable with the possibility of dead money and a cap hit? Are there zero medical concerns with Penix? I do not know enough about the rookie contract scale and the ins and outs of contracts for players and the cap space and future cap space, so I'm hoping the Falcons do. No one has a time machine, so it doesn't seem easy or logical for them to have multiple alternative plans. Still, this decision would encapsulate multiple alternative contracts and cap space diversity plans.

The more I think about the why and how, the more I do not understand and the more questions I have. The big one for me is: If you feel you are that close to being a year-in-and-year-out winner, then why not go for it and use the 8th pick to push a run into the playoffs and beyond? Go for a Superbowl!!! This feels odd as if you do not have confidence in what you are trying to sell the fanbase or even Kirk Cousins. This feels kind of like a Kirk Cousins hedge. If that is how you think, why sign Kirk in the first place?
 
Imagine Kirk sitting in front of the TV getting super hype over visions of Odunze as his WR2 just before getting the nut-kick call.
And you could see Penix and family in the green room none too happy as well. The fakest smiles I’ve seen in a long time.
 
The comparisons to Green Bay drafting Rodgers and then Love are interesting. Of course there are significant differences among the three picks and easy to pick apart any comparison, but I have to say the comments in here and elsewhere about Penix are uncannily similar to what was said about the Packers in making those draft picks when they had a good QB on the team. We could look back on both those draft nights in the FFA archives here and find almost identical comments - its not just a bad pick, its the worst pick of the draft or worst pick in team history, etc. They gave up a chance to immediately help the team when it has a good QB in place. With Rodgers and Love, those comments were wrong at the time and the picks were vindicated many times over. I wouldn't be too keen on drawing a hard line in the sand on this pick just yet.
I wasn't here in 2005, but I remember the Rodgers pick being almost universally highly thought of as a major steal of a guy many (most?) thought was the best player in the entire draft class at #24.

Also, Favre had begun bringing up potential retirement, which to my knowledge neither Rodgers (before 2020) nor Cousins have done.
 
The comparisons to Green Bay drafting Rodgers and then Love are interesting. Of course there are significant differences among the three picks and easy to pick apart any comparison, but I have to say the comments in here and elsewhere about Penix are uncannily similar to what was said about the Packers in making those draft picks when they had a good QB on the team. We could look back on both those draft nights in the FFA archives here and find almost identical comments - its not just a bad pick, its the worst pick of the draft or worst pick in team history, etc. They gave up a chance to immediately help the team when it has a good QB in place. With Rodgers and Love, those comments were wrong at the time and the picks were vindicated many times over. I wouldn't be too keen on drawing a hard line in the sand on this pick just yet.
It can work, and there are some situations we can point to and say similar plans have worked: the Packer plan twice (Farve and Rodgers) (Love and Rogers), The Chiefs plan (Mahomes and Smith), and even the Bengal plan (Palmer and Kitna). Now, none of these are the same, and there are differences but some similarities as well. I wonder if any analytical data could support an increase of the 50% bust on first-round quarterbacks by sitting them on one or multiple seasons. If you could point to data supporting this, I would find it interesting, but there likely is not, and the sample size would be small. I would think without going back in the way back time machine and reviewing data from when it was a mindset to sit rookie quarterbacks. Does bring up a fun concept article idea and research project.
 
Teams trading multiple 1st rounders are spending far more assets than what Atlanta did. The immediate negative is that they spent $$$$$ and a first rounder with the guarantee that one of those assets is not being used on the field. How long that lasts is a good question (ask GB fans if one more asset could have won a Super Bowl).
 
The comparisons to Green Bay drafting Rodgers and then Love are interesting. Of course there are significant differences among the three picks and easy to pick apart any comparison, but I have to say the comments in here and elsewhere about Penix are uncannily similar to what was said about the Packers in making those draft picks when they had a good QB on the team. We could look back on both those draft nights in the FFA archives here and find almost identical comments - its not just a bad pick, its the worst pick of the draft or worst pick in team history, etc. They gave up a chance to immediately help the team when it has a good QB in place. With Rodgers and Love, those comments were wrong at the time and the picks were vindicated many times over. I wouldn't be too keen on drawing a hard line in the sand on this pick just yet.
Fair points, and ultimately nobody will care about all of this if Penix turns out to be great.

I'm sure we will never know, but I really would be fascinated to know when they decided or thought they might draft a QB at #8. It certainly appears that they made that decision sometime in the last couple of weeks.

There's nothing inherently wrong with finalizing a draft decision close to the draft. But in this case, it just seems a like a team that has no idea what it's doing.

Atlanta has had a desperate need at QB for a couple of years. 6 weeks ago, there were a number of different options in the FA/trade market for QB needy teams. One cost $100 million In guaranteed money, a no trade clause, and probably a draft pick for tampering. But there were also a number of interesting options that were basically free. Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Sam Howell, even Gardner Minshew, Sam Darnold, and Jacoby Brissett. Not great, but a lot of options if you are planning a stop-gap, let a rookie come along slowly approach. They chose the $100 million guaranteed option.

Also, this was not a QB dropping scenario. They got the consensus 5th or 6th best QB at #8. Obviously, Penix "dropping" to 8 was not some shock.

Point is, you would expect Atlanta to be charting this course for months, but it really feels like they bought a brand new Mercedes on an 84-month loan with zero down and then decided they wanted a Tahoe 5 minutes after driving the Mercedes off the lot.

They Tahoe may be a great vehicle, but that doesn't mean losing $30K in 5 minutes on the Mercedes was a good idea.

They were either planning to be stupid, or just weren't planning at all.
 
It wasn't the worst pick of round 1, but its up there.
It wasn’t? Which one was worse?
I think D. Robinson was a late-2nd early 3rd caliber player, who is too slow to be a DE, and too small to be a DT. He's a guy who strikes me as a borderline NFL starter. Not what I'd want in round 1, and if Arizona thinks he's a DT, taking him over Newton was crazy.

I didn't like the Worthy pick either, I think he got bumped up a round entirely from a 40-time. I think he's never going to be a #1 WR at that size. Could probably make a case for Legette as well.
 
I like the Penix pick for ATL. :shrug:
I think the Penix pick is pretty solid too.

What do you think about the Kirk Cousins signing?

Normally those 2 things wouldn't be related, but in this case, it sure seems like the Falcons threw $100 million guaranteed at a 38 YO QB that just tore his Achilles before they scouted the upcoming rookie class to see if there might be somebody good to draft at 8.

I could be wrong, but there doesn't seem to be an alternative theory that makes sense.
 
Imagine Kirk sitting in front of the TV getting super hype over visions of Odunze as his WR2 just before getting the nut-kick call.
The more I think about this its also a move to cut QB money.
Teams trading multiple 1st rounders are spending far more assets than what Atlanta did. The immediate negative is that they spent $$$$$ and a first rounder with the guarantee that one of those assets is not being used on the field. How long that lasts is a good question (ask GB fans if one more asset could have won a Super Bowl).
Most GB fans and folks here complained at the time.
 
I like the Penix pick for ATL. :shrug:
I think the Penix pick is pretty solid too.

What do you think about the Kirk Cousins signing?

Normally those 2 things wouldn't be related, but in this case, it sure seems like the Falcons threw $100 million guaranteed at a 38 YO QB that just tore his Achilles before they scouted the upcoming rookie class to see if there might be somebody good to draft at 8.

I could be wrong, but there doesn't seem to be an alternative theory that makes sense.

I think Cousins is a good QB, not a great QB. Shrinks in marquee games, no playoff legacy to date. But I think he's the perfect QB to unlock the offensive weapons Aurthur Smith and Co. could not. If he can't make Kyle Pitts and Drake London relevant nobody can, so you give him this year to run the offense, show Penix how it's done, let the kid learn from a pro and make a decision next year and beyond.

NFL money is stupid, it's a variable that always changes. What seems egregious today may seem ordinary in 2 years. Falcons have a lot of young, cheap talent. Penix included. He's an insurance policy, a good one, potentially a great one.

66 different people played QB last year. I'd rather have Penix today that 40 of those guys who played QB last year. Imagine if the Vikings had a Penix last year...
 
I am a fan. It's 2024. You have to have a stud QB. You invest everything into that.

They're a reasonable contender, but it's not like they're a Super Bowl favorite where a defensive tackle or OT at #8 is going to suddenly put them over the top. So if you have that chance to grab a guy you think will be a stud at QB for 10+ years, just do it.

Further, it's not even like this is necessarily for just 3+ years from now. Cousins by the time the season starts will be a 36 year old QB coming off an achilles injury. There's no guarantee he's going to be any good coming back from the injury. This kind of stuff changes fast in the NFL. Remember when the Eagles weren't going to have to worry about QB for 10 years because they had Wentz? Remember Matt Ryan at age 36? Cousins may be an afterthought for the NFL by this time next year or the year after.

I saw an interesting note recently. A lot of mocks had Penix going to the Rams to be next in line behind a 36 year old Matt Stafford and no one had a problem with it. But him going to Atlanta to be the next in line behind a soon to be 36 year old Kirk Cousins who just had a major injury is unimaginable.

The only reason I didn't like the pick is because I wanted the Dolphins to get him.
 
Gives Penix time to strengthen his body to the rigors of the NFL with NFL strength and conditioning coaches too. Tua spent a year remaking his body and it worked. Lessons to learn here.
 
I like the Penix pick for ATL. :shrug:
I think the Penix pick is pretty solid too.

What do you think about the Kirk Cousins signing?

Normally those 2 things wouldn't be related, but in this case, it sure seems like the Falcons threw $100 million guaranteed at a 38 YO QB that just tore his Achilles before they scouted the upcoming rookie class to see if there might be somebody good to draft at 8.

I could be wrong, but there doesn't seem to be an alternative theory that makes sense.

Things change so fast with the draft. They had to sign Cousins back in mid-March. By the time the draft rolled around Penix could have been considered a consensus top 5 pick. Or even if he wasn't, someone could have traded up to 4/5 and grabbed him there. If they passed on Cousins and then someone sniped Penix ahead of them, they'd really be up a creek.
 
One of the worst picks I've ever seen ...
Sign a veteran qb to a 4 year $180m contract then take a 24 Year old QB (5th to 6th best QB) who was projected to go late 1st early 2nd with the 8th pick of the draft. Penix will be 28 when and if he ever takes over.

Jordan Love is still only 25

Crazy that some people are actually trying to Justify this pick
 
I like the Penix pick for ATL. :shrug:
I think the Penix pick is pretty solid too.

What do you think about the Kirk Cousins signing?

Normally those 2 things wouldn't be related, but in this case, it sure seems like the Falcons threw $100 million guaranteed at a 38 YO QB that just tore his Achilles before they scouted the upcoming rookie class to see if there might be somebody good to draft at 8.

I could be wrong, but there doesn't seem to be an alternative theory that makes sense.

I think Cousins is a good QB, not a great QB. Shrinks in marquee games, no playoff legacy to date. But I think he's the perfect QB to unlock the offensive weapons Aurthur Smith and Co. could not. If he can't make Kyle Pitts and Drake London relevant nobody can, so you give him this year to run the offense, show Penix how it's done, let the kid learn from a pro and make a decision next year and beyond.

NFL money is stupid, it's a variable that always changes. What seems egregious today may seem ordinary in 2 years. Falcons have a lot of young, cheap talent. Penix included. He's an insurance policy, a good one, potentially a great one.

66 different people played QB last year. I'd rather have Penix today that 40 of those guys who played QB last year. Imagine if the Vikings had a Penix last year...
My man.
 

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