QB Michael Penix Jr., ATL (2 Viewers)

[Faust]

Shane P. Hallam
Michael Penix is great with a clean pocket, stepping up, setting his feet.

When he feels pressure, or gets uncomfortable, the throws get inaccurate.

Exactly what happened on that 4th down and what has been all year. That's the downside for Penix.

https://x.com/shanephallam/status/1744536160720884170?s=61

 

[BeTheMatch]

Pretty terrible night. Cost himself a lot of money, if you ask me. Not seeing wide-open guys all night.

 

[travdogg]

Shane P. Hallam
Michael Penix is great with a clean pocket, stepping up, setting his feet.

When he feels pressure, or gets uncomfortable, the throws get inaccurate.

Exactly what happened on that 4th down and what has been all year. That's the downside for Penix.

https://x.com/shanephallam/status/1744536160720884170?s=61

Haven't watched a ton of PAC-12 so only seen a little of Penix but getting a bit of a Tua vibe. When things are on schedule, he's accurate and decisive. When things break down, its a crapshoot.

Looks like the QB4 at best to me in this class. Probably closer to Nix than Daniels.

 

[3 hour lunch]

He was harassed quite a bit vs Texas and was dropping dimes. Not so much tonight. Might be injured? Has a lot of upside but tonight will give teams pause, along with his injury history.

 

[Max Power]

He's hurt again. Durability is going to be a sticking point in his evaluation.

 

[travdogg]

I think this game is gonna make it really hard for him to be a top-15 pick. Which might be good for him, as it brings teams like Seattle and maybe Pittsburgh into the mix. A year behind Geno could be just what Penix needs.

Also, the Steelers would possibly prefer Nix, as they've seemingly had their fill of injury prone young QBs with Pickett, who I think could be traded this offseason.

 

[Faust]

Michael Penix Jr. Is Shaking Up the College Football Playoff. Will He Also Shake Up the NFL Draft?

Michael Penix Jr. NFL draft stock, projections: How experts view Washington quarterback

Michael Penix Jr. Disappoints CFB Fans as Washington Lose to Michigan in Title Game

 

[Desert_Power]

I think this game is gonna make it really hard for him to be a top-15 pick. Which might be good for him, as it brings teams like Seattle and maybe Pittsburgh into the mix. A year behind Geno could be just what Penix needs.

Also, the Steelers would possibly prefer Nix, as they've seemingly had their fill of injury prone young QBs with Pickett, who I think could be traded this offseason.

It's an interesting year. I think there are a lot of QBs that will be graded in a similar range and I think all the injuries in the NFL will underscore the importance of depth at the position. Mid 1st through the early 3rd is going to see a lot of guys go IMO.

 

[Grahamburn]

Doubt he sleeps well for a while after that one. Oof.

 

[abrunn1133]

We can pump the brakes on this kid. Abhorrent performance where he looked extremely inaccurate. Couple that with the nervous breakdown he had during the Apple Cup and I would be surprised if anyone touched him in the first round. Well, Manziel went in the first round, so maybe that is extreme…

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

He's not special is he. Slow release, doesn't seem to trust his receivers unless they are wide open, almost no ability to extend plays at all.

Would be mad to take him in the top 15 in my eyes.

 

[Boston]

I think this game is gonna make it really hard for him to be a top-15 pick. Which might be good for him, as it brings teams like Seattle and maybe Pittsburgh into the mix. A year behind Geno could be just what Penix needs.

Also, the Steelers would possibly prefer Nix, as they've seemingly had their fill of injury prone young QBs with Pickett, who I think could be traded this offseason.

It's an interesting year. I think there are a lot of QBs that will be graded in a similar range and I think all the injuries in the NFL will underscore the importance of depth at the position. Mid 1st through the early 3rd is going to see a lot of guys go IMO.

I think you are going to see more of an old school approach to many rookie QBs going forward...with the correct development of Love I think you will see more teams realizing that while you can strike gold with a rookie QB and his contract starting ASAP that is probably not realistic for a most young QBs if you want them to succeed so teams are going to have evaluate these QBs accordingly.

 

[Soulfly3]

ah, yes. one game v the absolute best in the nation and he's a bum.
wish he had played some other ranked teams this season to see how he'd fare...

 

[Boston]

ah, yes. one game v the absolute best in the nation and he's a bum.
wish he had played some other ranked teams this season to see how he'd fare...

Yup...what have you done for me lately...last week he was top 5 and this week he is a second-rounder.

 

[massraider]

ah, yes. one game v the absolute best in the nation and he's a bum.
wish he had played some other ranked teams this season to see how he'd fare...

Bunch of people have read about him, but didn't see him till last night.

 

[Soulfly3]

That's all fine and dandy. It wasn't a good performance. But there's a literal MOUNTAIN between the talent of Michigan and that of Washington. It was no contest from the start.

But who is it that people think got Washington to the National Title game?

 

[Max Power]

I'm not sure if that play calling last night helped or hurt his draft stock. Washington couldn't get much going and he looked OK on the short timing passing game. He looked awful dropping back and under pressure. He came across as a system QB to me.

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm not sure if that play calling last night helped or hurt his draft stock. Washington couldn't get much going and he looked OK on the short timing passing game. He looked awful dropping back and under pressure. He came across as a system QB to me.

Most QBs look worse under pressure don't they? I suppose you have to look at his footwork and ability to avoid a rush and still get an accurate pass off. How was that most of the time this year?

 

[jm192]

I'm not sure if that play calling last night helped or hurt his draft stock. Washington couldn't get much going and he looked OK on the short timing passing game. He looked awful dropping back and under pressure. He came across as a system QB to me.

Most QBs look worse under pressure don't they? I suppose you have to look at his footwork and ability to avoid a rush and still get an accurate pass off. How was that most of the time this year?

Seeing as he was only sacked once despite the constant pressure...I'd give him at least a passing grade.

 

[Soulfly3]

remember when Caleb played the MIGHTY (14th ranked) Notre Dame this season ?

199yds. 3 picks. -2yds rushing on like 15 attempts...

Have him as a mid 2nd rnd QB after that, personally.

 

[jm192]

The theme of the night was that Penix was under constant pressure. This led to him sailing some throws that he normally makes.

If I'm a scout or a GM--I don't think "Wow, this guy can't succeed if he's under constant pressure?!" Who can? That Michigan Defensive Line is insane. They're going to make a lot of college QB's look mid. The Washington O-Line was severely overmatched.

We've seen him look absurdly good when he has time. What does he look like in the NFL with a good offensive line to buy him time?

 

[Soulfly3]

Passing yds (Ranked teams) v Michigan 2023

Bama - 116yds/0tds
Ohio State - 271/2td/2int
Penn State - 70ds/1td
Iowa - 120yds
Penix - 255yds/1td/2int

 

[zamboni]

If I'm a scout or a GM--I don't think "Wow, this guy can't succeed if he's under constant pressure?!" Who can? That Michigan Defensive Line is insane. They're going to make a lot of college QB's look mid. The Washington O-Line was severely overmatched.

You'd like to think scouts/GMs will look at his full body of work, not just last night, but it's probably human nature to focus on what have you done for me lately, and that might hurt his perception. Have to think he'll still easily be a 1st rounder, but this may have dropped him a bit.

 

[Soulfly3]

If I'm a scout or a GM--I don't think "Wow, this guy can't succeed if he's under constant pressure?!" Who can? That Michigan Defensive Line is insane. They're going to make a lot of college QB's look mid. The Washington O-Line was severely overmatched.

You'd like to think scouts/GMs will look at his full body of work, not just last night, but it's probably human nature to focus on what have you done for me lately, and that might hurt his perception. Have to think he'll still be a 1st rounder, but this may have dropped him a bit.

His injury history is one thing I think they'll look at, but it's basically in the past.
He's still, after last night, going in the top 15 picks or higher. I am certain of it.

 

[Max Power]

I'm not sure if that play calling last night helped or hurt his draft stock. Washington couldn't get much going and he looked OK on the short timing passing game. He looked awful dropping back and under pressure. He came across as a system QB to me.

Most QBs look worse under pressure don't they? I suppose you have to look at his footwork and ability to avoid a rush and still get an accurate pass off. How was that most of the time this year?

He looked scared to take a hit if we're being honest. I'll just say going up against Big10/SEC Defenses is a lot different than the PAC-12.

 

[Soulfly3]

I'm not sure if that play calling last night helped or hurt his draft stock. Washington couldn't get much going and he looked OK on the short timing passing game. He looked awful dropping back and under pressure. He came across as a system QB to me.

Most QBs look worse under pressure don't they? I suppose you have to look at his footwork and ability to avoid a rush and still get an accurate pass off. How was that most of the time this year?

He looked scared to take a hit if we're being honest. I'll just say going up against Big10/SEC Defenses is a lot different than the PAC-12.

You're not wrong... But did you see anything wrong with him v Texas? Even w/ the pressure (which there was plenty)?

MICH is just a different breed of animal. It was a CFL team v an NFL team

 

[jm192]

If I'm a scout or a GM--I don't think "Wow, this guy can't succeed if he's under constant pressure?!" Who can? That Michigan Defensive Line is insane. They're going to make a lot of college QB's look mid. The Washington O-Line was severely overmatched.

You'd like to think scouts/GMs will look at his full body of work, not just last night, but it's probably human nature to focus on what have you done for me lately, and that might hurt his perception. Have to think he'll still easily be a 1st rounder, but this may have dropped him a bit.

I definitely think they'll consider last night.

But I don't believe NFL scouts and GM's are so shortsighted as to take a kid's last game over the rest of the tape.

 

[Grahamburn]

He has been uneven generally. Not just this game. His play under pressure really falls off extremely when contrasted with play that isn't under pressure and it appears that he has had a lot of good protection at Washington. In the NFL, you're either going to be under pressure a lot or you're going to have to get the ball out very quickly in order to avoid that pressure.

He also looks extremely fragile. He's older and has a laundry list injury history.

 

[Max Power]

I'm not sure if that play calling last night helped or hurt his draft stock. Washington couldn't get much going and he looked OK on the short timing passing game. He looked awful dropping back and under pressure. He came across as a system QB to me.

Most QBs look worse under pressure don't they? I suppose you have to look at his footwork and ability to avoid a rush and still get an accurate pass off. How was that most of the time this year?

He looked scared to take a hit if we're being honest. I'll just say going up against Big10/SEC Defenses is a lot different than the PAC-12.

You're not wrong... But did you see anything wrong with him v Texas? Even w/ the pressure (which there was plenty)?

MICH is just a different breed of animal. It was a CFL team v an NFL team

I thought he looked good against Texas.

I worry that "different breed" of defense is going to be the norm in the NFL.

Washington had to focus on the short passing game because Penix couldn't make anything happen downfield, and couldn't elude the rush very well.

On the flip side people talk about Williams being the #1 pick because when a play breaks down he is still very dangerous.

 

[Big Nate]

ah, yes. one game v the absolute best in the nation and he's a bum.
wish he had played some other ranked teams this season to see how he'd fare...

This is a good point. Obviously if he plays well it helps his draft stock. It didn't go well so should it totally tank his stock? I'm not well versed in the college scene but I ask this: Is it fair to evaluate him on one game or his depth of work in total? The questions about it being a big game and not playing well are fair. Some guys struggle in the big game. My question is, can he keep working on his game and improve?

Someone above mentioned Jordan Love. I would argue that Penix is well ahead of Love at the end of their college career. If a team drafts him in the first round it might not be a bad idea for him to sit. Lots of successful QBs took some time to get up to speed in the NFL and work and improve their game. Seattle, like mentioned above, could be perfect. I hope he goes to a team with good weapons and a good coach. Look what happened to Bryce Young behind an O-line that didn't play well and wasn't set up to succeed. The problem in Carolina was he did look like the best QB in training camp. But maybe it would have been good for him to sit for half the year behind Dalton and learn and have no pressure.

Amazing people writing him off after one game. We will see what type of kid he is and his mental toughness after that game.

 

[massraider]

I'm not sure if that play calling last night helped or hurt his draft stock. Washington couldn't get much going and he looked OK on the short timing passing game. He looked awful dropping back and under pressure. He came across as a system QB to me.

I would have liked to have seen more simple one on ones to his all world WR core. Coach got a little cute, I thought.

https://twitter.com/fball_insights/status/1743785568943907044

For those who didn't watch Penix all year, he was very good at avoiding sacks when under pressure all year. Like, really, really good.

 

[massraider]

He's older and has a laundry list injury history.

This is less interesting to discuss, but both of these are a problem. One you cannot write off, like a single bad game.

 

[Stoneworker]

The theme of the night was that Penix was under constant pressure. This led to him sailing some throws that he normally makes.

If I'm a scout or a GM--I don't think "Wow, this guy can't succeed if he's under constant pressure?!" Who can? That Michigan Defensive Line is insane. They're going to make a lot of college QB's look mid. The Washington O-Line was severely overmatched.

We've seen him look absurdly good when he has time. What does he look like in the NFL with a good offensive line to buy him time?

What does Penix look like behind a good offensive line?

The Washington O-Line won the Joe Moore award this year as best in the country.

 

[Grahamburn]

He's older and has a laundry list injury history.

This is less interesting to discuss, but both of these are a problem. One you cannot write off, like a single bad game.

It will be a big discussion for teams. He looks like every year IR material.

 

[Big Nate]

Question for those who watch and follow a lot of college ball - where do you think he goes in the NFL draft and more importantly, in SF dynasty leagues where does he get drafted? I know a lot depends on NFL draft capital and landing spot but early thoughts and feelings on this?

Before this game he was climbing up the board both in the NFL and fantasy rookie mocks. Maybe there is a discount to be had.

One post above does mention his injury history (ACLs etc.) and that is a fair point. The medicals will tell a lot and if NFL teams care about that or push the injury stuff to the side. He did manage to finish this year.

 

[JohnnyU]

He has been uneven generally. Not just this game. His play under pressure really falls off extremely when contrasted with play that isn't under pressure and it appears that he has had a lot of good protection at Washington. In the NFL, you're either going to be under pressure a lot or you're going to have to get the ball out very quickly in order to avoid that pressure.

He also looks extremely fragile. He's older and has a laundry list injury history.

Not sure if this has already been posted, so forgive me if it has. Too lazy to read today.

Michael Penix Jr. injury history​

— 2018: Penix appeared in three games as a true freshman in 2018 before suffering a season-ending ACL tear in October. He didn't make a start and threw only 34 passes, but Penix was splitting time with Peyton Ramsey in a competitive game against Penn State when he went down. Because the injury happened early enough in the season, however, Penix was able to set his sights on a full recovery ahead of the 2019 season.

— 2019: Penix, a lefthander, dislocated the SC joint in his non-throwing shoulder in November 2019, ending his season prematurely. He had made a pretty remarkable comeback, earning the Hoosiers' starting job as a redshirt freshman despite spending most of the offseason recovering from the torn ACL.

Indiana was 7-2 when Penix went down in a win over Northwestern, already the program's highest win total since 2007. Penix already had missed time earlier in the season, sitting out a 41-point loss to Ohio State, but the Hoosiers would struggle the rest of the way with losses to Penn State and Michigan plus a Gator Bowl loss to Tennessee.

— 2020: The COVID-shortened season, which nearly didn't happen at all for Big Ten schools, was a bit of a dream season for Indiana. With Penix at the helm, the Hoosiers were ranked as high as No. 7 in the AP poll and earned wins over both Penn State and Michigan. Penix threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns in the win over the Wolverines, and he gave Ohio State a scare by throwing for 491 yards and five touchdowns in a loss.

While Penix was arguably a darkhorse Heisman Trophy candidate with 14 touchdown passes through five games, his season ended abruptly when he re-tore his ACL against Maryland. Indiana played only two more games, but Penix missed an opportunity to play in the Outback Bowl against Ole Miss as he recovered.

— 2021: By the time 2021 rolled around, injuries were starting to take a toll on Penix's mind. He told the Pac-12 Network earlier this year that he dealt with mental health struggles as a result.

"There were times when I'd wake up the day of the game and I'd wait until my roommate leaves, and I'd just lie on the floor, and I'd just cry to God, just praying that he'd protect me that day because I knew where my head was at at the time, and it wasn't truly fresh," Penix said, adding that there were "a lot of tears."

That makes it even more remarkable that Penix was able to not only continue his career after 2021, but also reach new heights. His 2021 season ended after only five games, with Penix suffering a dislocated joint in his throwing shoulder. At that point, Penix had thrown more interceptions than touchdowns in a season that would see Indiana finish winless in Big Ten play.

The desire to play never disappeared for Penix, who revealed earlier this year that he wasn't medically cleared from his second ACL tear before playing against Iowa in 2021. Penix said the doctor who performed his surgery said he couldn't formally clear him just yet but said he couldn't stop him from playing. Penix played, and while he suffered the shoulder injury the following month, his leg held up as well as he could have hoped.

In two years at Washington, Penix has made every start and morphed into one of the nation's top quarterbacks. After a Heisman runner-up season and a College Football Playoff semifinal win, Penix now has his sights set on a national championship.

 

[jm192]

The theme of the night was that Penix was under constant pressure. This led to him sailing some throws that he normally makes.

If I'm a scout or a GM--I don't think "Wow, this guy can't succeed if he's under constant pressure?!" Who can? That Michigan Defensive Line is insane. They're going to make a lot of college QB's look mid. The Washington O-Line was severely overmatched.

We've seen him look absurdly good when he has time. What does he look like in the NFL with a good offensive line to buy him time?

What does Penix look like behind a good offensive line?

The Washington O-Line won the Joe Moore award this year as best in the country.

I don't want to go down a rabbit hole of whether or not the Washington offensive line was "good" or not.

What I mean to argue is that their offensive line was DOMINATED last night. They were very much NOT good vs Michigan's defensive line. If an NFL team can give Penix a situation where the offensive line isn't overwhelmed and dominated, then I think he can still succeed in spite of last night's game.

 

[JohnnyU]

PAC-12 is soft

 

[abrunn1133]

I think this game is gonna make it really hard for him to be a top-15 pick. Which might be good for him, as it brings teams like Seattle and maybe Pittsburgh into the mix. A year behind Geno could be just what Penix needs.

Also, the Steelers would possibly prefer Nix, as they've seemingly had their fill of injury prone young QBs with Pickett, who I think could be traded this offseason.

It's an interesting year. I think there are a lot of QBs that will be graded in a similar range and I think all the injuries in the NFL will underscore the importance of depth at the position. Mid 1st through the early 3rd is going to see a lot of guys go IMO.

I think you are going to see more of an old school approach to many rookie QBs going forward...with the correct development of Love I think you will see more teams realizing that while you can strike gold with a rookie QB and his contract starting ASAP that is probably not realistic for a most young QBs if you want them to succeed so teams are going to have evaluate these QBs accordingly.

Love was in the same class as Burrow, Herbert and Hurts. I think those QBs worked out fine and they started right away.

 

[Boston]

I think this game is gonna make it really hard for him to be a top-15 pick. Which might be good for him, as it brings teams like Seattle and maybe Pittsburgh into the mix. A year behind Geno could be just what Penix needs.

Also, the Steelers would possibly prefer Nix, as they've seemingly had their fill of injury prone young QBs with Pickett, who I think could be traded this offseason.

It's an interesting year. I think there are a lot of QBs that will be graded in a similar range and I think all the injuries in the NFL will underscore the importance of depth at the position. Mid 1st through the early 3rd is going to see a lot of guys go IMO.

I think you are going to see more of an old school approach to many rookie QBs going forward...with the correct development of Love I think you will see more teams realizing that while you can strike gold with a rookie QB and his contract starting ASAP that is probably not realistic for a most young QBs if you want them to succeed so teams are going to have evaluate these QBs accordingly.

Love was in the same class as Burrow, Herbert and Hurts. I think those QBs worked out fine and they started right away.

Not sure what your point is...mine is not every QB is ready to start right away but I do think when you use a top 5 or 6 pick on a QB (like Burrow or Herbert...or a Caleb this year) the expectation is to start right away or pretty close to that...Hurts was a 2nd round pick not expected to start his rookie year but ended up taking over in week 11...it is not cookie-cutter for every rookie QB and some hit the ground running and others need time to develop and the teams that do this correctly will reap the benefits.

 

[Big Nate]

I think this game is gonna make it really hard for him to be a top-15 pick. Which might be good for him, as it brings teams like Seattle and maybe Pittsburgh into the mix. A year behind Geno could be just what Penix needs.

Also, the Steelers would possibly prefer Nix, as they've seemingly had their fill of injury prone young QBs with Pickett, who I think could be traded this offseason.

It's an interesting year. I think there are a lot of QBs that will be graded in a similar range and I think all the injuries in the NFL will underscore the importance of depth at the position. Mid 1st through the early 3rd is going to see a lot of guys go IMO.

I think you are going to see more of an old school approach to many rookie QBs going forward...with the correct development of Love I think you will see more teams realizing that while you can strike gold with a rookie QB and his contract starting ASAP that is probably not realistic for a most young QBs if you want them to succeed so teams are going to have evaluate these QBs accordingly.

Love was in the same class as Burrow, Herbert and Hurts. I think those QBs worked out fine and they started right away.

Herbert is a great example. When it came to fantasy drafts his stock and ADP dropped a ton. Not saying these examples all work out but if Penix stock starts to drop there could be value there. If you need a QB in dynasty rookie drafts there looks to be a number of options after the top 3 and some may end up as values.

 

[belljr]

I haven't been high on Penix all year and last night has me really not liking him. I would not take him in Round 1 - just my opinion

 

[travdogg]

I think this game is gonna make it really hard for him to be a top-15 pick. Which might be good for him, as it brings teams like Seattle and maybe Pittsburgh into the mix. A year behind Geno could be just what Penix needs.

Also, the Steelers would possibly prefer Nix, as they've seemingly had their fill of injury prone young QBs with Pickett, who I think could be traded this offseason.

It's an interesting year. I think there are a lot of QBs that will be graded in a similar range and I think all the injuries in the NFL will underscore the importance of depth at the position. Mid 1st through the early 3rd is going to see a lot of guys go IMO.

I think you are going to see more of an old school approach to many rookie QBs going forward...with the correct development of Love I think you will see more teams realizing that while you can strike gold with a rookie QB and his contract starting ASAP that is probably not realistic for a most young QBs if you want them to succeed so teams are going to have evaluate these QBs accordingly.

Love was in the same class as Burrow, Herbert and Hurts. I think those QBs worked out fine and they started right away.

Herbert is a great example. When it came to fantasy drafts his stock and ADP dropped a ton. Not saying these examples all work out but if Penix stock starts to drop there could be value there. If you need a QB in dynasty rookie drafts there looks to be a number of options after the top 3 and some may end up as values.

Let's not forget Herbert wasn't supposed to start, he got almost zero 1st team reps, and only got in the lineup because the Chargers embarrassingly bad team doctor punctured Tyrod Taylor's lung. Then Herbert blew up, and the decision was made, but the Chargers had every intention of bringing Herbert along slowly.

 

[Big Nate]

I haven't been high on Penix all year and last night has me really not liking him. I would not take him in Round 1 - just my opinion

What if you have 1.12 and need a QB?

 

[Faust]

Michael Penix Jr's draft stock tumbles after National Championship: How far will he fall?

 

[JohnnyU]

Michael Penix Jr's draft stock tumbles after National Championship: How far will he fall?

Microwave mentality, but his injury history is suspect at best, but not so much at Washington

 

[Big Nate]

Michael Penix Jr's draft stock tumbles after National Championship: How far will he fall?

Microwave mentality, but his injury history is suspect at best, but not so much at Washington

Honestly I don't think his injury history will determine if he succeeds in the NFL. He's a QB that has decent pocket mobility but he's not a big runner. ACL tears for QBs isn't that big of an issue. They are in the past and healed. Look at all the QBs who got injured this year in the NFL. Only 9 of all the starting QBs in the NFL played all the games. It is the nature of the sport.

Even RBs who blow their ACLs go on to have success in the NFL and the RB position is much more demanding on your body.

The injury stuff is getting overblown by those who want to throw shade his way. There are other reasons he may drop in the draft and I don't think injuries will be that big of an issue. He's a tough dude who has fought back from 2 knee surgeries and helped elevate his team and get the to the Championship game.

The final game didn't work out but he's busted his *** this year and balled out for most of the season.

 

[The Frankman]

The Athletic: The next C.J. Stroud? Why Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. could exceed NFL Draft evaluations (part 1)

Bucky Brooks was one of the first in the NFL scouting community to become a big believer in C.J. Stroud. Brooks, a former NFL player who spent almost a decade in the league as a scout, first got a sense of just how special the Houston Texans phenom was when he coached Stroud before his senior year of high school at The Opening, Nike’s gathering of top prospects, in 2019.

When Brooks sizes up what is expected to be an even better quarterback crop than last year’s draft class, he thinks Washington star Michael Penix Jr. is the C.J. Stroud of the 2024 group.

“To me, he was eerily similar to C.J.’s coming-out party versus Georgia,” Brooks said of Penix’s performance in the College Football Playoff semifinal against Texas. “It was like, ‘Let me show you guys that I can move.’ When Penix took off on some quarterback power, that reminded me of what I thought he had at Indiana.

“He’s the one who plays it in a traditional sense, like the traditional quarterback that they’ve always wanted. Deals from the pocket. Quick release. Beats people with your mind and your arm as opposed to your athleticism. He does that and has significant tape that shows that.”

Penix put up staggering numbers in leading Washington to the national title game after an undefeated regular season.

The 23-year-old finished second in the Heisman Trophy race, throwing for 4,903 yards to lead the nation in passing for the second year in a row. He had 67 touchdowns to 19 interceptions and completed 65 percent of his passes in two years at Washington, doing it in an offensive scheme that thrived on downfield throws and vertical shots.

He left rival coaches raving about what they saw both in-person and on film, as opposed to some college QBs who put up gaudy stats with a lot of dinking and dunking.

“I don’t know if I’ve seen that many coaches rave about a player like that,” Brooks said. “What those coaches said backed up how I felt. I’m watching him against Texas, and he’s carving them up. Then, I looked at Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game, and he’s carving them up. Those coaches talking about how if you don’t change the look, he is absolutely going to dice them up. All the Cover 3 beaters and all of the other stuff that is in their package, to me, that is next-level stuff. And I know for a fact with Drake Maye and some of the other guys, they don’t have that in their bag.”

Dane Brugler, The Athletic’s NFL Draft analyst, has called Penix the most polarizing QB prospect in a draft class that includes projected first-round picks like Maye, Caleb Williams, J.J. McCarthy and Jayden Daniels.

Some of that stems from Penix’s medical history, including four season-ending injuries while at Indiana. A source close to Penix told The Athletic that on Monday the QB met with his doctor, who said “his medicals are going to clear.”

There’s little doubt that Penix’s meetings with team doctors and their evaluations will be critical. But regardless, scouts will also be divided by his skill set.

“He operates a really aggressive offense,” Brugler said. “At Washington, he knew he had really good receivers, and to his credit, he was trusting those guys to go make a play. A lot of those times, though, those guys were bailing him out. He’s willing to attack every small inch of the field and to throw into small windows, but when you study the tape, he was also inconsistent. His anticipation over the middle of the field is not a strength of his.

“In the Texas game, when he was facing more of a vanilla defense, the whole game it felt like he knew exactly what he was doing. But then in the championship game against Michigan, when he was facing the closest thing to an NFL defense that he’s faced, he seemed unsure of himself and was feeling the rush the moment the ball was snapped. He missed several open reads because of that.”

Brugler said that one scout recently told him Penix had a third-round grade and would not be drafted by his team. Another said Penix would be a top-50 pick.

In 2020, Penix led Indiana to its best football season in 53 years.

The Hoosiers finished No. 12. He was named team MVP, even after a torn ACL ended his year in Game 6 of an eight-game slate shortened by COVID-19. But in the following year, Penix suffered another season-ending injury, a dislocated joint in his throwing shoulder in Indiana’s fifth game. The Hoosiers went 2-10.

Penix had been struggling with the weight of uncertainty that had come from his knee recovery before the 2021 season began. He was extremely candid with The Athletic and later with Pac-12 Network about what he had been feeling back at Indiana.

“It’s hard,” a teary-eyed Penix said last April. “I was scared to play, but I still tried to. It was just a lot. In my head, I said if I’d gotten hurt again, I was gonna quit football.”

He talked about leaning on his family and his loved ones to persevere, adding, “I just love the game so much now.”

“I didn’t want to give it up,” he said, “but obviously going through what I was going through, it was hard. But I couldn’t give up because I have so many people depending on me and looking up to me. So, if I can play, I was gonna play. Unless the doctor said I couldn’t.”

After my story was published last month, there was some chatter about how some NFL folks might view Penix’s words in the draft process. Some teams might use his words against him, and there might be questions about how the QB would handle another injury.

“He’ll get asked about it at the combine and it will become a bigger story than maybe it needs to be,” Brooks said. “I would, as a scout, appreciate his vulnerability. The only thing that I think can hold him down is the injury factor.”

 

[The Frankman]

part 2

Daniel Jeremiah, another former NFL scout who analyzes the draft for NFL Network, said while that might give some NFL teams pause, ultimately it will come down to what medical people tell franchises after they check Penix out.

“It’s gonna be 100 percent what the doctors say,” Jeremiah said. “I don’t think teams will be worried that he might hang it up because he doesn’t want to rehab an ACL. I think teams will wait until their medical people tell them if he can come back from a third ACL.”

Some of the people The Athletic spoke to about Penix viewed his perspective as much more of a positive than a potential negative as it relates to his transition to the NFL and how teams should view him being so transparent about what had been going through his mind — and what that shows about his character.


“You could have two GMs and two organizations who will see this very differently,” said former NFL quarterback Brock Huard, who has covered Penix as a TV analyst. “There will be some that will be turned off by that and that will use the medicals as the reason for that, and there will be others that will be absolutely thankful for that grit and that experience.

“You don’t understand how much is thrown on these top guys, and how all of those expectations and that pressure destroys them. Well, Penix has been there and he’s faced all of that and been on the other side. You have this full spectrum and gamut. How many guys have that, from being totally broken and scared, beat up — literally, figuratively, emotionally — and then from that other side of it? How many have handled unbelievable pressure and success of the target getting bigger and bigger and running the whole show? I can’t imagine there’s very many of the last 100 quarterback prospects taken that have had that full-boat spectrum.”
The hit rate of first-round quarterbacks that live up to NFL teams’ expectations is stunningly low.

If you start with QBs drafted between 2000-20, it nets out to about one in three working out for those franchises. In 2021, there were five QBs taken in the top 15 picks: Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones. It’s still early, but it’s a stretch to think two of them will prove to be franchise QBs.

Jeremiah has extensively studied why top quarterbacks don’t live up to their hype in the NFL. He pointed to his former boss in Baltimore, Ozzie Newsome, always asking prospects to give an example of adversity they’ve dealt with.

“The No. 1 reason that high-pick quarterbacks don’t work out is failure to deal with adversity,” Jeremiah said. “Before they get drafted, these guys probably haven’t had much adversity. They’re usually the best kid around, and now even more so because all of the best high schools identify these kids and bring them in, so you don’t have many of them playing with inferior kids around them.

“Then, they go to top-notch programs and they play with superior talent around them. But then they go to the NFL, which is the ultimate level playing field. You’re gonna have adversity.”

Penix will get a chance to showcase his skills next week for the NFL at the Senior Bowl. It’ll be the next step in what figures to be a compelling process for a quarterback who has already been through a lot.

Jeremiah described Penix as having a “live, explosive arm” but pointed to his low left-handed release as something that may make his passing appear unorthodox at first glance. His experience, meanwhile, should work in his favor.

“With a clean injury sheet, I would’ve said he’s a stand-on-the-table guy just from the way he competes and the way he throws, his playmaking,” Jeremiah said. “I don’t think the age has any factor. I’ve almost begun to look at the age as a benefit. He’s played a ton, and you’re gonna get judged Game 1 in the NFL. I’d rather him and Bo Nix with the 50-60 start guys like (Brock) Purdy. They’ve gotten a chance to experiment, learn, grow, make mistakes without everything being under the microscope like it’s gonna be Day 1 in the NFL.”


Even if opinions are mixed about his pro potential, there’s little doubt that Penix has a lot of folks who are rooting for him because of all he battled through in his college career.

“If I’m him, I would be super proud because No. 1, he persevered and came back, and on top of that he went to another school and had success,” Manuel said. “He was a baller at Indiana and he’s become an even more elite baller at Washington.

“Any team that gets him in the draft is getting someone who has gone through adversity, which I think is important, but also an elite passer. And the throws he’s making, he’s ready. I would liken him to C.J. Stroud in just how accurate he is in terms of his marksmanship and way he plays football.”

 

[Faust]

QB Michael Penix Jr. eager to show NFL scouts what he can do