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Contrarian's mock - top ten (1 Viewer)

chinawildman

Footballguy
You see a few picks every year.... the picks where we scratch our heads and wonder why the teams did that. Hopefully it will go something like this:

1) CAR - With a new regime, the panthers will take either Gabbert or Newton. Clausen's presence is a non-factor. CAR's run D was actually top 10 last yr in YPC allowed, considering how much they were on the field that's not bad at all. They've got a good RB and a decent mix of aging and young up and coming WRs. With the owner's distaste for drama queen athletes this pick will almost certainly be Blaine Gabbert.

2) DEN - It's essentially a lock that the broncos are going defense with this pick. I've seen Miller and Peterson mocked to them, but that makes no sense with Bailey and Dumervil coming back. Bowers was almost a certainty here until the medical reports. Denver's swiss cheese run defense had to be hard for fans to stomach, and they will welcome Marcell Dareus with open arms, though I would not be surprised to see Nick Fairley here.

3) BUF - The Bills are in a great spot. They have their choice of elite prospects in Newton, Peterson, and Miller. Buffalo's pass defense actually wasn't too shabby (though it may have been because their atrocious run defense). Neither Miller or Peterson will do much for their run D and I get the feeling the Bills are just blowing smoke about Newton. Ideally they would like to trade down and plug more holes, but in this scenario we have a mini-suprise when they take Nick Fairley to anchor their new 4-3.

4) CIN - The Bengals are in complete disarray on offense. They could potentially (and likely) be without their starting QB, RB, and WRs. Miller and Peterson again are options but the Bengals D actually isn't too bad and they already have Dunlap and Joseph. With the ghosts of Akili Smiths past looming, the Bengals shy away from Cam Newton and go with the safer bet in AJ Green and hope Carson changes his mind.

5) ARI - Ken Whisenhunt needs to win NOW, so I doubt the cards have the patience to watch Newton develop. Every mock I've seen this is where Von Miller gets taken, if not higher, but I just don't see a player like Patrick Peterson dropping any further. The cards' pass D was bad last year after the departure of Antrell Rolle. Even if Peterson doesn't work out at corner, he will make a menacing safety a la Sean Taylor (RIP) who was also drafted 5th overall.

6) CLE - Rarely have I seen Von Miller fall out of the top 5 in any recent mock. But he's a perfect fit in cleveland. They have a good young corner in Haden, but the front seven scares no one. They will briefly consider Julio Jones here, but in the AFC north defense wins championships. Holmgren wastes no time in choosing who he hopes will be the next Derrick Thomas.

7) SF - The niners are in a bit of a pickle because all the top defenders are gone and although Newton's available, the management has shown little interest thus far. Most mocks have them settling for Amukamara or Quinn in this situation, but I'm going a different route. The niners D is no slouch, and fans in the bay area have been starved by good offense for almost a decade now. Not sold on Crabtree as a game changing receiver, the niners attempt to reincarnate TO in the form of Julio Jones who personifies Harbaugh's tough physical mantra.

8) TEN - Bud Adams probably can't wait to get the taste of the whole Fisher/Young fiasco out of his mouth. What better way than to pick a new QB w/ tremendous upside for your new coach in Cam Newton? Many people seem to think the Titans will shy away from Newton after the Young debacle. I think just the opposite, the Titans have seen how a raw rookie with natural ability can win them games, and hope Newton can do what Young did for them without the headaches.

9) DAL - The cowboys have the most overall talent of all teams picking in the top 10. Everyone seems to think Dallas will reach for a tackle here because Romo got knocked da f--- out. I live in Texas and have endured my share of Cowboys games and I have to say, their biggest area of need is secondary. Newman is getting old, and Jenkins was playing flag football the entire season. Jerry will be pleased when he sees Prince Amukamara available to them at 9.

10) WAS - The skins are pretty devoid of talent on offense and faced with a situation not unlike that of the Bengals. Unfortunately, the top shelf talent on offense has run dry. Some mocks have Ingram penciled in here, but that is very un-shanahan-like to take a RB so high. After last season's shellacking by the Eagles, I see Dan Snyder going defense and gambling on a guy who could turn out to be the best player from this draft in Robert Quinn.

 
8) TEN - Bud Adams probably can't wait to get the taste of the whole Fisher/Young fiasco out of his mouth. What better way than to pick a new QB w/ tremendous upside for your new coach in Cam Newton? Many people seem to think the Titans will shy away from Newton after the Young debacle. I think just the opposite, the Titans have seen how a raw rookie with natural ability can win them games, and hope Newton can do what Young did for them without the headaches.
There would be different headaches with Newton. I can't say they won't take the kid, but fans will not embrace him immediately. Although hopefully unlike McNabb in Philly, they eventually might.

 
ZERO chance the Titans get within 200 yards of Newton. He IS Vince Young. They dont play the same but they are the same spoiled, immature kids that have had everyone in their lives make excuses for them. I cannot see the Titans management gamble on another kid like that.

All the signs are there. Has nothing to do with his color. Has everything to do with HIM. He will be Vince Young part II but without the winning.

 
VY was always a winner, he had that IT factor. Unfortunately he turned out to be another headcase in a long line of headcases from UT. Does Auburn suffer from the same reputation, I don't know, but I can say that character issues aside, Cam Newton looks like a better prospect than Vince when he was coming out.Personally I think the whole issue in the sports media of labeling players "character guys" or "poor character guys" is absurd. There are plenty of headcases who are going to be Hall of Famers. I think Cam Newton gives the Titans alot more to be excited about than say, taking a guy like Amukamara.

ZERO chance the Titans get within 200 yards of Newton. He IS Vince Young. They dont play the same but they are the same spoiled, immature kids that have had everyone in their lives make excuses for them. I cannot see the Titans management gamble on another kid like that. All the signs are there. Has nothing to do with his color. Has everything to do with HIM. He will be Vince Young part II but without the winning.
 
9) DAL - The cowboys have the most overall talent of all teams picking in the top 10. Everyone seems to think Dallas will reach for a tackle here because Romo got knocked da f--- out. I live in Texas and have endured my share of Cowboys games and I have to say, their biggest area of need is secondary. Newman is getting old, and Jenkins was playing flag football the entire season. Jerry will be pleased when he sees Prince Amukamara available to them at 9.
I've gotta say, as a Cowboys fan, I am really torn with this pick. Do I acknowledge that CB is a pressing need and would I be happy if we took Prince here? Absolutely. With that being said, I feel like safety, both free and strong, and offensive line are of much greater need at this point. Mike Jenkins played absolutely uninspired last year, but he does have the skill set to be a strong player in the NFL. Hopefully under new coach Jason Garret, he can flash that pro-bowl calibre play he showed two years ago. Although Terence Newman is indeed old, we do have some serviceable depth in Orlando Scandrick backing him up.

Alan Ball proved last year that he is just not suited to play the FS position and Sensabaugh's career in Dallas is in limbo. Unfortunately for us, safety is not a strong position in this year's draft and S Rahim Moore out of UCLA warrants at best a high second round pick. Therefore, I believe Dallas will opt with T Tyron Smith out of USC with the 9th pick, with the hopes that he will replace Marc Columbo and help to solidify our OL. I think Dallas will look to grab a S with upside in the later rounds, much like they did the year before with Awusu-Ansa and take somebody like S Jaiquawn Jarrett out of Temple. But I think that Tyron Smith is the pick in the first round over Prince Amukamara because a) OL is of greater need at this point and b) Dallas did not invite Prince to a workout this past week and historically in the past few years Dallas has drafted somebody in the first round that they have looked at in workouts (Mike Jenkins being a rare exception).

 
The Bills are moving to a 3-4 defense, not a 4-3. I think Von Miller, Cameron Jordan. Patrick Peterson and Marcell Dareus are all more likely choices than Fairley. The last thing Nix or Gailey wants is a one year wonder type guy that takes plays off and doesn't have great motivation.

 
Where's the contrarian part?
I'll admit the players are mostly the same, but the reasoning is contrary to most mocks I've read and few have fairley, newton, jones, and miller going to these teams. Mostly fairley and jones throw a wrench into this equation. I can see Quinn going as high as 2nd overall now that Bowers is out of the picture for the top 10.
 
Where's the contrarian part?
I'll admit the players are mostly the same, but the reasoning is contrary to most mocks I've read and few have fairley, newton, jones, and miller going to these teams. Mostly fairley and jones throw a wrench into this equation. I can see Quinn going as high as 2nd overall now that Bowers is out of the picture for the top 10.
Well, like has been said before, the reason you haven't seen those players going to those teams is that they don't fit the scheme.Buffalo is going 3-4 and Cleveland is going back to the 4-3. So neither Fairley nor Miller fit either scenario.I can see Jones going to SF. Can't see Quinn going to Denver as they too are going back to the 4-3 and I have to think they'll see what they can get out of Dumervil and Ayers before they draft another DE.
 
Where's the contrarian part?
I'll admit the players are mostly the same, but the reasoning is contrary to most mocks I've read and few have fairley, newton, jones, and miller going to these teams. Mostly fairley and jones throw a wrench into this equation. I can see Quinn going as high as 2nd overall now that Bowers is out of the picture for the top 10.
Well, like has been said before, the reason you haven't seen those players going to those teams is that they don't fit the scheme.Buffalo is going 3-4 and Cleveland is going back to the 4-3. So neither Fairley nor Miller fit either scenario.I can see Jones going to SF. Can't see Quinn going to Denver as they too are going back to the 4-3 and I have to think they'll see what they can get out of Dumervil and Ayers before they draft another DE.
Good point regarding Miller and the fit in a 4-3 D, if cleveland decides to take jones there, SF will immediately snatch up miller with the next pick.After reading the following article, I believe the Bills will be running the 4-3 next year (if not just for the fact that everyone and their mom ran on their front 7 last year)http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2011/2/11/1988582/vic-carucci-bills-eyeing-return-to-4-3-defenseAlso I believe Quinn is better suited as a 4-3 end, it's what he played in college and he's a little on the large side to operate as a 3-4 linebacker although he certainly has the athleticism to do so. I doubt Denver will reach to take him, most people think Fox needs his Peppers in this draft, but I think they'll for their version of Jenkins instead. Quinn will go sooner than later however.
 
Where's the contrarian part?
I'll admit the players are mostly the same, but the reasoning is contrary to most mocks I've read and few have fairley, newton, jones, and miller going to these teams. Mostly fairley and jones throw a wrench into this equation. I can see Quinn going as high as 2nd overall now that Bowers is out of the picture for the top 10.
Well, like has been said before, the reason you haven't seen those players going to those teams is that they don't fit the scheme.Buffalo is going 3-4 and Cleveland is going back to the 4-3. So neither Fairley nor Miller fit either scenario.I can see Jones going to SF. Can't see Quinn going to Denver as they too are going back to the 4-3 and I have to think they'll see what they can get out of Dumervil and Ayers before they draft another DE.
Good point regarding Miller and the fit in a 4-3 D, if cleveland decides to take jones there, SF will immediately snatch up miller with the next pick.After reading the following article, I believe the Bills will be running the 4-3 next year (if not just for the fact that everyone and their mom ran on their front 7 last year)http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2011/2/11/1988582/vic-carucci-bills-eyeing-return-to-4-3-defenseAlso I believe Quinn is better suited as a 4-3 end, it's what he played in college and he's a little on the large side to operate as a 3-4 linebacker although he certainly has the athleticism to do so. I doubt Denver will reach to take him, most people think Fox needs his Peppers in this draft, but I think they'll for their version of Jenkins instead. Quinn will go sooner than later however.
The Bills aren't moving to a 4-3 defense. They'll still mix it in a lot since they don't have the personnel that they want to run the 3-4, but that's why you keep drafting 3-4 players. Weinstadt wasn't brought in to run their defense, he was brought in to help run it and to help out a lot with the linebackers (who were terrible last year). Guys like Dareus, Miller and Jordan can all play in both the 3-4 and the 4-3 so they're way more valuable to the Bills than Fairley who I believe can really only be valuable in the 4-3. Fairley is also a one year wonder and has potential character issues, both of which Nix and Gailey have previously avoided. Nix has spent an entire year now ripping Maybin for being a one year wonder in college and saying over and over how taking one year wonders only lead to draft busts and getting fired.
 
'GroveDiesel said:
Weinstadt wasn't brought in to run their defense, he was brought in to help run it and to help out a lot with the linebackers (who were terrible last year). Guys like Dareus, Miller and Jordan can all play in both the 3-4 and the 4-3 so they're way more valuable to the Bills than Fairley who I believe can really only be valuable in the 4-3. Fairley is also a one year wonder and has potential character issues, both of which Nix and Gailey have previously avoided. Nix has spent an entire year now ripping Maybin for being a one year wonder in college and saying over and over how taking one year wonders only lead to draft busts and getting fired.
In all fairness to Fairley, his stock dropped after the combine workouts, not because of character or one year wonder questions. Cam Newton is also a one year wonder with character issues, yet he's all over the front page everywhere you go. I suppose it's at least better than a no-year wonder like Gabbert. His 16 TDs to 9 INTs last year is pretty pedestrian for a guy being considered to go 1st overall.
 
'GroveDiesel said:
Weinstadt wasn't brought in to run their defense, he was brought in to help run it and to help out a lot with the linebackers (who were terrible last year). Guys like Dareus, Miller and Jordan can all play in both the 3-4 and the 4-3 so they're way more valuable to the Bills than Fairley who I believe can really only be valuable in the 4-3. Fairley is also a one year wonder and has potential character issues, both of which Nix and Gailey have previously avoided. Nix has spent an entire year now ripping Maybin for being a one year wonder in college and saying over and over how taking one year wonders only lead to draft busts and getting fired.
In all fairness to Fairley, his stock dropped after the combine workouts, not because of character or one year wonder questions. Cam Newton is also a one year wonder with character issues, yet he's all over the front page everywhere you go. I suppose it's at least better than a no-year wonder like Gabbert. His 16 TDs to 9 INTs last year is pretty pedestrian for a guy being considered to go 1st overall.
Sure, I get all that, I'm just saying that the new Bills regime, specifically Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey have been very clear over the last year that they prefer players that have performed in college for more than one year and who have high character. I'm not trying to knock Fairley's character because as far as I know he doesn't really have off field issues. The media and other teams all have their reasons for moving Fairley up or down, I'm just saying why I think the Bills would likely not pick Fairley based on their general draft philosophy and where I think they ultimately want to go on defense. Of course, this is still Buffalo we're talking about so just about anything is possible. Heck, last year I said there was no way they'd take Spiller, lol. But I can't tell you how many times Buddy Nix has ripped Aaron Maybin and said that that's why you have to be careful drafting guys with only one year of production. And if you look at their draft from last year, they drafted all seniors that had showed that they can produce consistently. Does that mean I think they'd never draft a junior? No, but I do think it shows they value experience and maturity a lot.
 
'GroveDiesel said:
Weinstadt wasn't brought in to run their defense, he was brought in to help run it and to help out a lot with the linebackers (who were terrible last year). Guys like Dareus, Miller and Jordan can all play in both the 3-4 and the 4-3 so they're way more valuable to the Bills than Fairley who I believe can really only be valuable in the 4-3. Fairley is also a one year wonder and has potential character issues, both of which Nix and Gailey have previously avoided. Nix has spent an entire year now ripping Maybin for being a one year wonder in college and saying over and over how taking one year wonders only lead to draft busts and getting fired.
In all fairness to Fairley, his stock dropped after the combine workouts, not because of character or one year wonder questions. Cam Newton is also a one year wonder with character issues, yet he's all over the front page everywhere you go. I suppose it's at least better than a no-year wonder like Gabbert. His 16 TDs to 9 INTs last year is pretty pedestrian for a guy being considered to go 1st overall.
That's exactly why his stock has dropped. A lot of people are wondering if he's going to give a lot of effort once he gets paid.
 
A few thoughts.

Fairley would potentially make a very nice 5 technique in the 3-4. It would have to be a 1 gap 3-4 scheme, but that's how most are played now anyway. A team like Dallas that runs a base 3-4 but then plays 4-2 nickle on pass downs would also find a pass rushing disrupting DL like Fairley to be of high value.

A "contrarian" pick for Dallas at 9 would be Aldon Smith. Some are saying he's DeMarcus Ware v2.0. Or perhaps Robert Quinn. Same deal. Or possibly Cam Jordan, a versatile DL that Ryan would love.

I still contend that CB is not the main problem in their pass D. As asn4play indicated, safety is the much bigger issue there.

 
Cam has no character issues. What a joke. Everyone who matters already knows this and he will be a pretty easy decision for the Panthers. If the get momentarily confused and accidentally draft AJ GReen, then Buffalo will snap up Cam at 3. I'm not saying Green isn't worthy of #1 but its the wrong pick for the Panthers... and they cercainly won't be taking Gabbert. I would not be surprised to be a big draft day slide from Gabbert. Where exactly did his hype come from anyway?

I'm giving 50% chance of Mallet going before Gabbert when it gets right down to it.

 
Weinstadt wasn't brought in to run their defense, he was brought in to help run it and to help out a lot with the linebackers (who were terrible last year). Guys like Dareus, Miller and Jordan can all play in both the 3-4 and the 4-3 so they're way more valuable to the Bills than Fairley who I believe can really only be valuable in the 4-3. Fairley is also a one year wonder and has potential character issues, both of which Nix and Gailey have previously avoided. Nix has spent an entire year now ripping Maybin for being a one year wonder in college and saying over and over how taking one year wonders only lead to draft busts and getting fired.
In all fairness to Fairley, his stock dropped after the combine workouts, not because of character or one year wonder questions. Cam Newton is also a one year wonder with character issues, yet he's all over the front page everywhere you go. I suppose it's at least better than a no-year wonder like Gabbert. His 16 TDs to 9 INTs last year is pretty pedestrian for a guy being considered to go 1st overall.
Sure, I get all that, I'm just saying that the new Bills regime, specifically Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey have been very clear over the last year that they prefer players that have performed in college for more than one year and who have high character. I'm not trying to knock Fairley's character because as far as I know he doesn't really have off field issues. The media and other teams all have their reasons for moving Fairley up or down, I'm just saying why I think the Bills would likely not pick Fairley based on their general draft philosophy and where I think they ultimately want to go on defense. Of course, this is still Buffalo we're talking about so just about anything is possible. Heck, last year I said there was no way they'd take Spiller, lol. But I can't tell you how many times Buddy Nix has ripped Aaron Maybin and said that that's why you have to be careful drafting guys with only one year of production. And if you look at their draft from last year, they drafted all seniors that had showed that they can produce consistently. Does that mean I think they'd never draft a junior? No, but I do think it shows they value experience and maturity a lot.
Buddy was there for the Maybin pick, so his talk of year wonders is pretty cheap until he backs it up with a quality draft proven with production- needs to recover from the botched Spiller pick as well
 
Why would the Titans want to draft Vince Young II in order to get the original flavor's taste out of their mouth? :confused: I don't follow that logic.

 
Why would the Titans want to draft Vince Young II in order to get the original flavor's taste out of their mouth? :confused: I don't follow that logic.
I was inferring the taste of the whole Fisher/Young incompatibility issue out of their mouth... All indications are that Bud Adams has fervently remained a supporter of VY. And in his defense, Young wins games, ugly or not. His whole problem was his maturity level and inability to take criticism. If you're saying Newton suffers from the same problems, then you have more insight into Newton's life than I do.
 

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