Matt Waldman
Footballguy
Then more power to you.Man, that's a pretty good answer. Actually, that's about the same exact way that I would have answered that question.Guess I am immature as well.
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Demaryius Thomas (1 Viewer)
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Matt Waldman
Footballguy
And that's something that I've had to learn over the course of my stay on staff here and I plan to incorporate if I do rookie rankings next year for the site.
identikit
Footballguy
Siegfried
Footballguy
You are better than Dez Bryant?Man, that's a pretty good answer. Actually, that's about the same exact way that I would have answered that question.Guess I am immature as well.
Or just more immature? So your rookie rankings in april are based on their redraft value?I always assumed all those rankings are dynasty rankings.
That explains a lot as some rankimgs of yours had me baffled, but it makes sense now.
Matt Waldman
Footballguy
Let's keep it cool...I have no problem with Whodeywhodey disagreeing with my point of view and thinking I'm way off. I'm just trying to explain where I stand on it.You are better than Dez Bryant?Man, that's a pretty good answer. Actually, that's about the same exact way that I would have answered that question.Guess I am immature as well.
Matt Waldman
Footballguy
Yep...I've been really just thinking more re-draft impact and when I realized it was supposed to be dynasty value it felt too late for me to really change much.
Matt Waldman
Footballguy
No and the problem with my rookie rankings has been figuring out how to incorporate the RSP with any rankings that deal with fit with a team. I was kind of reticent to do rookie rankings at first when I arrived last year.I have long used the RSP to just measure skills and not match with situation because situations change. After five years of working on this publication I have actually redesigned the checklist scoring for each position and I'm considering some sort of report that discusses potential fit based on their skills. I'm just not sure how much I feel comfortable projecting that kind of thing. I feel better just writing about what I observe on the field. It's a learning process. Demaryius Thomas will be a learning process. This summer I spent about 2-3 hours talking with another person that studies a lot of film and we swapped notes and ideas about our processes. I think the toughest thing about evaluating players - especially receivers - is what type of offense will they fit in best and getting enough looks in situations with enough variety to assess them as accurately as one would like. We both agreed that the coaches tape (end zone view) is very good in one respect (routes), but TV views are actually much better when they focus on the receiver, because it's so much easier to see hand techniques, route stems, how well they catch, etc. Another point we discussed is just how much do you give credit for what a player's potential could be to learn skills despite that they haven't shown them on film? With receivers I've been harsher on that front because there are so many with great physical skills that just fizzle in the NFL because they won't work on their games. I've been trying to figure out a way to accurately note which players I think have upside despite a lower score and ranking so if you're more inclined to take a guy based on potential, then you can see that in my analysis. Thomas could turn out to be one of those guys. As always this is a work in progress.
Drop
Footballguy
BayBaytron is unique. His combination of size and speed puts him in an elite class. I have very little concern for his hands, I feel that he catches the ball well with both his hands and with his body and he knows when to use which technique naturally to secure the catch. I don't know why people question his hands, if he couldn't catch he'd be knocking people out on defense.
I don't worry about his routes either because of his unique build they don't have to be perfect. Apparently he was built using a titanium alloy isotope similiar to Megatron which allows him to run sub 4.4.
He is simply playing a different game than most other WRs get to play. He basically commands autocushion from anyone trying to cover him because of his deep speed and initial burst. I have not seen him against press coverage from the footage that I've watched and I don't think it's a coincidence. His frame naturally boxes out defenders trying to break on any ball that he opens up his shoulders to. This forces DBs to react to any move he makes, which makes his double moves absolutely devastating. That frame forces reactions from DBs and basically speeds up the game for them because they know they have to get around him and they aren't sure if they can do it. On top of that he speeds up the game for them because he eats up cushion and has to be respected first and foremost as a blazer. What this means is that no matter how you cover him he's open to a competent QB and he's a nightmare for anyone trying to cover him. Even in double coverage it basically comes down to one of the two guys having to make a play on the ball against him and if it's thrown high most defenders have no chance.
Players like this are very rare. Usually big WRs without elite speed can be countered because they often lose the quickness battles and any half step that they gain with precise routes or savvy play can be nullified with closing speed. In BayBaytron's case if he has half a step on you he might as well have 3 steps because if you are a defender on his hip you are very unlikely to be both fast enough to stay there and/or strong enough to slow him down, and you still have to be able to elevate with him if you are there in many cases.
I think that generally speaking his evaluations are cloudy for a couple of reasons. His college offense was not similar to the pro game. He had a poorly timed injury that affected his early NFL growth and evaluation period. The biggest problem is that people are evaluating him on the same plane as other prospects and people overlook the fact that because of his unique size and speed combo he doesn't have to be as polished as other guys in certain areas. When he comes into the game he changes the game. He is playing a different set of games within the game and when you realize that you will see how valuable he is to any team. It's not a fluke that he steps into his first action in week 2 and instantly dominates. He missed months of prep for the NFL and he came in and was unstoppable, and realistically he's probably rusty and still adjusting. Scary potential.
The thing that I want to see from him is his ability to be a playmaker using his shiftiness. He'll certainly just stiff arm guys and burn them after the catch with some consistency, but can he string together a few jukes in addition to his power game? I would also like to see him used in mid to deep slanting routes over the middle of the field, because I just want to see how naturally he catches the ball in stride on those types of routes and I think Orton can deliver some of those.
I think that there is a clear distinction between Bay-Bay and any other WR to come along since Megatron period. I don't think it's going out on a limb to say that, to me it ain't hard to tell. They both change the way the set of games within the game are played, although Megatron does it a little differently for sure. Now how much they dominate on top of that is determined by their mental toughness, work ethic, health, and the team around them.
You can read into what is said in interviews or what he scored on a test all you want. I was looking at some footage of other big WRs who make adjustments on jump balls and fight for it and when I compared it to how Bay-Bay looks when he does the same thing I noticed a subtle difference in how easy he makes it look, almost as if the DB isn't even there. I'm not going to over evaluate and try to pick apart his game because he is such a trump card in so many situations that he allows plenty of room for error and as unorthodox as that sounds it's just the way it is when you are 6'3'' 230 run a 4.38 and have hands. Having said that, it's not like his fundamentals are poor, I think they are very good in most cases and I would be doing him a disservice if I didn't mention that he's a good blocker who takes pride in blocking and understands how it helps him be more successful as a WR not just in terms of team strategy, but he also realizes what it does for him when the DB has to worry about getting popped when he's actually just running a route at them.
I don't worry about his routes either because of his unique build they don't have to be perfect. Apparently he was built using a titanium alloy isotope similiar to Megatron which allows him to run sub 4.4.
He is simply playing a different game than most other WRs get to play. He basically commands autocushion from anyone trying to cover him because of his deep speed and initial burst. I have not seen him against press coverage from the footage that I've watched and I don't think it's a coincidence. His frame naturally boxes out defenders trying to break on any ball that he opens up his shoulders to. This forces DBs to react to any move he makes, which makes his double moves absolutely devastating. That frame forces reactions from DBs and basically speeds up the game for them because they know they have to get around him and they aren't sure if they can do it. On top of that he speeds up the game for them because he eats up cushion and has to be respected first and foremost as a blazer. What this means is that no matter how you cover him he's open to a competent QB and he's a nightmare for anyone trying to cover him. Even in double coverage it basically comes down to one of the two guys having to make a play on the ball against him and if it's thrown high most defenders have no chance.
Players like this are very rare. Usually big WRs without elite speed can be countered because they often lose the quickness battles and any half step that they gain with precise routes or savvy play can be nullified with closing speed. In BayBaytron's case if he has half a step on you he might as well have 3 steps because if you are a defender on his hip you are very unlikely to be both fast enough to stay there and/or strong enough to slow him down, and you still have to be able to elevate with him if you are there in many cases.
I think that generally speaking his evaluations are cloudy for a couple of reasons. His college offense was not similar to the pro game. He had a poorly timed injury that affected his early NFL growth and evaluation period. The biggest problem is that people are evaluating him on the same plane as other prospects and people overlook the fact that because of his unique size and speed combo he doesn't have to be as polished as other guys in certain areas. When he comes into the game he changes the game. He is playing a different set of games within the game and when you realize that you will see how valuable he is to any team. It's not a fluke that he steps into his first action in week 2 and instantly dominates. He missed months of prep for the NFL and he came in and was unstoppable, and realistically he's probably rusty and still adjusting. Scary potential.
The thing that I want to see from him is his ability to be a playmaker using his shiftiness. He'll certainly just stiff arm guys and burn them after the catch with some consistency, but can he string together a few jukes in addition to his power game? I would also like to see him used in mid to deep slanting routes over the middle of the field, because I just want to see how naturally he catches the ball in stride on those types of routes and I think Orton can deliver some of those.
I think that there is a clear distinction between Bay-Bay and any other WR to come along since Megatron period. I don't think it's going out on a limb to say that, to me it ain't hard to tell. They both change the way the set of games within the game are played, although Megatron does it a little differently for sure. Now how much they dominate on top of that is determined by their mental toughness, work ethic, health, and the team around them.
You can read into what is said in interviews or what he scored on a test all you want. I was looking at some footage of other big WRs who make adjustments on jump balls and fight for it and when I compared it to how Bay-Bay looks when he does the same thing I noticed a subtle difference in how easy he makes it look, almost as if the DB isn't even there. I'm not going to over evaluate and try to pick apart his game because he is such a trump card in so many situations that he allows plenty of room for error and as unorthodox as that sounds it's just the way it is when you are 6'3'' 230 run a 4.38 and have hands. Having said that, it's not like his fundamentals are poor, I think they are very good in most cases and I would be doing him a disservice if I didn't mention that he's a good blocker who takes pride in blocking and understands how it helps him be more successful as a WR not just in terms of team strategy, but he also realizes what it does for him when the DB has to worry about getting popped when he's actually just running a route at them.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Great post, Drop. I think Orton is also a good QB for him. Not the strongest arm, but strong enough. And accurate.
I'm officially starting my new toy over Steve Smith-Carolina. The Clausen factor made the decision easy.
I'm officially starting my new toy over Steve Smith-Carolina. The Clausen factor made the decision easy.
Chaka
Footballguy
Who?
two_dollars
Footballguy
Starting him over Floyd probably cost me my game.. but possibly so did Dwill over Charles.I still like this guy and think he'll be great, guess this just wasn't the week.
The problem is he is barely on the field. He might have been on the field for 1/3 of the plays. When he is in, Orton looks his way, but he doesn't play.Going to be a lot of ups and downs from him till he gets on the field.
ty for this. i now know to disregard your rankings going forward.When drafted, he was asked why did he think he was better than Dez Bryant and his response wasLove your work. Just curious on the bold section.WC: I don't hate Thomas. I just haven't liked his skills as an immediate impact player out of college as much as others. I don't like some things Thomas has said, but those things came way after I evaluated him in college and they never have a factor in how I watch a person play. Just be careful oversimplifying my point of view next time.
Neofight: While I admittedly have more misses at WR and RB as of late, I believe my track record of strong analysis of other positions is as good, and in many cases, better than my peers. Most scouts will tell you WR is one of the most difficult positions to evaluate. That said, an equally important mission for what I do is to provide information that is detailed enough for you to make your own decisions and factor out as much subjectivity as possible.
Hope Thomas busts out for you consistently (and earlier than I think will happen).
M
"Well, I don't know, I can't say. I know I'm a better person than Dez - that's how I feel. I feel like I'm a better receiver too - bigger, faster - I don't know."
Link
It's immaturity talking, but I didn't like it. I'd just like to see him play the game and compete with himself.
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
Don't know if that is true or not but if so, could have happened on the play where he pretty much had a TD near the end of the game and had it batted out of his hands in the endzone. He looked a *little* shaken up on that play.
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ROBOPUNTER
Footballguy
Why do you think it's immature for him to say he is a better WR and a better person than Dez Bryant?Let's keep it cool...I have no problem with Whodeywhodey disagreeing with my point of view and thinking I'm way off. I'm just trying to explain where I stand on it.You are better than Dez Bryant?Man, that's a pretty good answer. Actually, that's about the same exact way that I would have answered that question.Guess I am immature as well.
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Tigerbot Hesh
Footballguy
On that pass, he jumped for the ball and stuck his left arm out to brace his fall instead of just bellyflopping on the ground. He got up and looked like he was having trouble with the arm/wrist. Hopefully he just had a stinger/numbness in the arm, but a more serious injury wouldn't surprise me, either.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
We saw some of his speed when he made the tackle on the interception. I thought for sure that was going to be a pick 6 and Thomas ran him down. He was also doing good work blocking down field. The timing on the endzone plays was off all day between him and Orton, but it's encouraging they are designing plays for him. Not a great day FF wise, but 6 targets and a couple of 20+ yarders is pretty good for the kids second NFL game. Hopefully his injury isn't too bad.
Just read a blurb on rototimes that he should be "OK":
http://www.rototimes.com/nfl/player.php?tqid=9237
http://www.rototimes.com/nfl/player.php?tqid=9237
Updated injury news:
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpag...NFL&id=5700
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpag...NFL&id=5700
My question is, how is he going to fair against Finnegan?
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DesertDawg
Footballguy
I haven't been able to watch a broncos game at all this year but have thomas stashed on my bench. I guess from what I heard he is not playing in every series either. he is a playmaker and Orton seems to get him involved whenever he is in the game. I realize nobody knows when he will become a starter and stay on the field for the majority of the game but anyone have any "educated" guesses as to when we might see more of him?
JMJ
Footballguy
I think Thomas would produce immediately if given the playing time, but Lloyd, Gaffney, and Royal are all playing in front of him now and all are playing great. So barring injury, no need to fix what isn't broken.
The second he moves from WR #4 into the top 3 rotation (DEN runs tons of 3 WR sets), he is an immediate every week starter IMO.
The second he moves from WR #4 into the top 3 rotation (DEN runs tons of 3 WR sets), he is an immediate every week starter IMO.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
I'm still stashing. 1st round pick, showed promise with a big game before he was nicked. It's early. I've seen the Brandon Lloyd show before, and maybe I'm blind, but I refuse to believe that Lloyd and Gaffney are the answers here..We'll see. If he's not contributing more heavily by week 8 or so then I'll drop him. But I still think he could turn into a force in the 2nd half.
Chigurh
Footballguy
What Judge Smails said. The guy missed the entire preseason and his big game really was just two big drives, so I think people were unreasonably expecting immediate results. Talent finds a way to rise to the top and you've got to believe that he has too much of it to stay behind Lloyd and Gaffney in the pecking order all season long.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Thomas is the 2nd-most "dropped" player in CBS Sportsline leagues this week. 
I think that's a terrible mistake. You have to have a little bit of patience with a rookie. Especially a rookie WR.
I think that's a terrible mistake. You have to have a little bit of patience with a rookie. Especially a rookie WR.
Man In The Box
Footballguy
If you can afford to hold on to Thomas, I would. I'm trying like mad to make a 2 for 1 trade so I can pick him back up. I had to cut him due to very limited rosters and injuries.
pghrob
Hail to the Chief
Thinking of dropping Crabtree in a redraft to pick up Demaryius Thomas. Crabtree does not appear close to scratching the surface of my lineup anytime soon. Neither would Thomas. Wondering which could pan out and be option down the road.
When upper half of the draft drafted players don't pan out and they languish on your fantasy bench, how do others guage their rosterability?
It seems to make sense that if I am waiting for Crabtree to develop into the starter I thought he would have been by now, that I should be willing to wait for another player, who was not on a redraft board during the pre-season but is showing a good possibility to be develop into the starting WR I had hoped Crabs to be. Basically, need to wait on 2 guys - neither of which could crack line up now, but should be better down the road - which would be better? Go with the better.
When upper half of the draft drafted players don't pan out and they languish on your fantasy bench, how do others guage their rosterability?
It seems to make sense that if I am waiting for Crabtree to develop into the starter I thought he would have been by now, that I should be willing to wait for another player, who was not on a redraft board during the pre-season but is showing a good possibility to be develop into the starting WR I had hoped Crabs to be. Basically, need to wait on 2 guys - neither of which could crack line up now, but should be better down the road - which would be better? Go with the better.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
All depends whether you play in a redraft or dynasty.
Sam Quentin
Footballguy
Also depends on how deep your league is
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
I just grabbed him in my redraft. Tight rosters, but even with return work he has value. I think people are being too short sighted. Did you expect a rookie to blow up every week?
If he starts getting regular playing time and stinks I'll cut him. Until that time, I think you have to hold him.
If he starts getting regular playing time and stinks I'll cut him. Until that time, I think you have to hold him.
its amazing ppl actually carry 2 kickers at any time.
cubbie5150
Footballguy
Masked Vigilante
Footballguy
Why not just drop your starting kicker?
Macdaddy_2004
Footballguy
I cut him for Hernandez - eventhough I have Keller - I think Hernandez is going to be special now that Moss is out of NE.
ponchsox
Footballguy
Same here. As much as I wanted to keep Thomas, he isn't getting enough looks to be fantasy relevant and Hernandez is in a great situation to produce.
