DeMeco Ryans' value in redraft and dynasty (1 Viewer)

[sgtrobo]

126 solos, 30 assists, 3.5 sacks...insanity. Rookie extraordinaire.

the talent is there, but is the body? Yes, nagging injuries. I think a lot of people are placing him in the upper echelon of IDP ILBs when he may not deserve it.

We all see his ceiling. We all see the talent, but talent doesn't = consistency.

I'm interested in people's thoughts on this. An ILB is supposed to be the model of consistency. But how do you follow up 40 points over 2 weeks with a 3-tackle game, or a 1-tackle game against Tennessee right after a 16point game against GBP?

Just curious. I wonder if the rookie season wasn't a gross outlier

 

[Jene Bramel]

126 solos, 30 assists, 3.5 sacks...insanity. Rookie extraordinaire.

the talent is there, but is the body? Yes, nagging injuries. I think a lot of people are placing him in the upper echelon of IDP ILBs when he may not deserve it.

We all see his ceiling. We all see the talent, but talent doesn't = consistency.

I'm interested in people's thoughts on this. An ILB is supposed to be the model of consistency. But how do you follow up 40 points over 2 weeks with a 3-tackle game, or a 1-tackle game against Tennessee right after a 16point game against GBP?

Just curious. I wonder if the rookie season wasn't a gross outlier

The rookie season is definitely an outlier. 120 solo seasons are all but unrepeatable.I think the pertinent question is whether the minor injuries that have slowed him are likely to be an ongoing issue. He was again on a 120 solo pace in 2007 before the PCL and ankle issues really cut his production back over the final weeks of the year. Last season, he was clearly not moving as well as usual in a number of games but still had ten games with five solos or more.

Here's something worth remembering when considering the "consistency" of a stud ILB (from the 2008 W2 RTD column):

In 2007, the ten best tackling linebackers in the NFL (all of whom had at least 93 solos) had four solos or less in 24% of their games. Other than Willis, who only finished a game with four solos or less once in 2007, every other linebacker in the top ten tacklers had at least three games with four solos or less. Half of the top ten had four solos or less in five of their 16 games. The numbers are still more dramatic at the five solo mark. The league's best tacklers had five solos or less nearly 40% of the time in 2007. Every single backer on the list had at least five games with five solos or less. London Fletcher, the poster boy of tackle consistency for many, had five solos or less in half of his games in 2007.

In Ryans' case, it also warrants mentioning that, despite the solid production of Zac Diles last year, there's not a lot of competition for tackles among the back seven. Brian Cushing as your likely every-down OLB is unproven, Xavier Adibi all but disappeared after his huge debut, there's still no one who appears likely to step up at SS (or FS for that matter) and Dunta Robinson has to prove he's ready to put up huge run support numbers again.After what appears to be a strong consensus top three of Willis/Beason/Ruud this sesaon, who else would you have above Ryans without argument? There are plenty of options, but are they clearly more consistent options with more upside? If the answer is no, then that next group of upper echelon linebackers has to include Ryans. Even if it's yes, I think it's hard to drop Ryans out of the top ten.

It's a great question, though, and one that's probably not getting enough play -- it may be that people are too quick to dismiss Ryans in the memory of Diles last year or aren't considering whether he belongs highly.

 

[sgtrobo]

I think you hit the nail on the head Jene (wow, imagine that!)

The injuries...are they going to continue to be nagging little punks that pop up every season, or is he getting them out of the way early?

I just hesitate to see a player like Ryans get nicked up so often, so early. It reminds me of Bob Sanders. All the potential in the world, but can't produce when you're riding the pine due to injury

 

[trader jake]

The Texans are improving and the defensive talent around DeMeco Ryans is much better. That combination makes it unlikely that he'll end up as an elite (top 5) linebacker next season. I don't question his ability to stay healthy like many but his situation has changed since his rookie season.

 

[bigal0303]

You guys all make great points but it is demeco Ryans. I think he will reestablish himself as elite. They are getting better on defense but his ball hawking will be even better expect more blitzing by houston given demeco the edge in the middle he is starting to be able to cover also last 2 years in idp leagues in the top 5 and he is young still a great one untill back to back years of low numbers