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**Detroit at Kansas City** (-4.5/52.5) Kickoff-Opening Night! (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Exciting opening night game, great to be able to watch both teams, many are heavily invested in both the Lions and the Chiefs.

Some of the names in play that night include Mahomes, Kelce, Pacheco and perhaps a KC WR like Moore or Toney if he can actually suit up.
You also have ARSB, Monty, the Rookie Gibbs and perhaps even Goff and secondary WR for Detroit so there's a lot of action for an opening night game.

I'm not quite ready to make a prediction but I am thinking that the Lions will come out fired up and 6.5 points, perhaps even more by kickoff, might be a lot for the Chiefs to cover.
27-24, 31-27 if you like the over, those seem like the kind of scores we might see.
Something keep pushing me towards the under, could we see a 24-21 score with a little defense mixed in at times?
 
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Great start for fantasy for sure with big week 1 and season implications. I predict fantasy fireworks but the Chiefs are a little too good at home for the improved Lions D. It might take a few weeks for all the new pieces to get up to speed, especially the rookies. Chiefs win 34-20 in a game that was closer than the final indicated.
 
Jared Goff on the road? Andy Reid with weeks to prepare? I only have to lay 6.5?

Smashing the Chiefs to cover and may wrap a little parlay bow around this and the Commanders cover I discussed in that decade-old thread and send my kid to the Ivy of his choice (likely won't get in) and a nice little father son trip on the Virgin shuttle to space!
 
track meet. anyone have stats on deetroit w-l away on grass over the past 25 years? 6.5pts seems like it should be higher - SB champs, at home, opening night, against a perennial doormat? I'm thinking Lions cover the spread. not sure KC has anyone on defense who can cover Amon-ra, or gibbs in the flat catching a pass.
feels like it should be KC -9 or something. feels 'off' to me. Take detroit getting pts
 
KC at home the obvious favorite here. Lions have to hope for that SB hangover people always talk about. Also, Chris Jones has not participated in any of the practice sessions and preseason games for the Chiefs during his holdout. Could make things slightly easier for the Lions on offense as they try to keep PM off the field.
 
Jared Goff on the road? Andy Reid with weeks to prepare? I only have to lay 6.5?

Smashing the Chiefs to cover and may wrap a little parlay bow around this and the Commanders cover I discussed in that decade-old thread and send my kid to the Ivy of his choice (likely won't get in) and a nice little father son trip on the Virgin shuttle to space!
Goff's last 3 road openers, he is averaging over 23 fantasy points. His last game vs. KC, he threw for over 400 yards with 4 passing TD's and 1 rushing TD.
 
Jared Goff on the road? Andy Reid with weeks to prepare? I only have to lay 6.5?

Smashing the Chiefs to cover and may wrap a little parlay bow around this and the Commanders cover I discussed in that decade-old thread and send my kid to the Ivy of his choice (likely won't get in) and a nice little father son trip on the Virgin shuttle to space!
Goff's last 3 road openers, he is averaging over 23 fantasy points. His last game vs. KC, he threw for over 400 yards with 4 passing TD's and 1 rushing TD.
You mean the greatest NFL regular season game of the last 10 years? Goff was slangin' it.
 
Andy Reid is 8-2 in home openers, including 7 in a row.

Patrick Mahomes is undefeated in Week 1, 5-0 v the NFC North, 18-2 v the NFC, and 17-3 in September.

The Detroit Lions were 12-5 against the spread in 2022.

It's kind of unprecedented to have the Opening Night game for the NFL be the defending champs versus a team that didn't even make the playoffs the year before. Big expectations in Detroit, who have a new running back duo and revamped defense.

We're hosting a watch party. Hope it's a good game.
 
Andy Reid is 8-2 in home openers, including 7 in a row.

Patrick Mahomes is undefeated in Week 1, 5-0 v the NFC North, 18-2 v the NFC, and 17-3 in September.

The Detroit Lions were 12-5 against the spread in 2022.

It's kind of unprecedented to have the Opening Night game for the NFL be the defending champs versus a team that didn't even make the playoffs the year before. Big expectations in Detroit, who have a new running back duo and revamped defense.

We're hosting a watch party. Hope it's a good game.
Yeah I do feel like the Lions aren't the right team for this game. I mean I love it but shouldn't it be Miami or Cinci?
 
Very interesting opener. Chiefs coaching staff(without Bienemy) plenty of time to prepare,but that goes for The Lions also.
Starters don't play much in the preseason,many times it's the defense that wears down in the second half. I think the over is a great play.
Lions are tough,gritty and fun to watch. Mahomes is fun to watch,Kelce is his main squeeze and it will be interesting to see where else he goes with his passes.
The cameo's he made in the preseason suggest he's going to spread the wealth. Wouldn't be surprised if nine or ten different players catch at least one pass.
Detroit will make a game of this one. But National Game,home opener and well....Patrick Mahomes. I'll venture...

Defending Champions- 37
Fiesty Cats- 33
 
The betting public will be all over the favorite in the opener and Vegas knows it especially if the line stays under 7. I'm taking the Lions +6.5 with a sprinkle on the Lions ML to shock the Chiefs. I can hear the over reactions in the media now, Are the Chiefs done without Bienemy? Was Bienemy the real mastermind behind Andy Reid? Etc.
 
Jared Goff on the road? Andy Reid with weeks to prepare? I only have to lay 6.5?

Smashing the Chiefs to cover and may wrap a little parlay bow around this and the Commanders cover I discussed in that decade-old thread and send my kid to the Ivy of his choice (likely won't get in) and a nice little father son trip on the Virgin shuttle to space!
Goff's last 3 road openers, he is averaging over 23 fantasy points. His last game vs. KC, he threw for over 400 yards with 4 passing TD's and 1 rushing TD.
The Lions don't have half the talent that team had though.
 
Jared Goff on the road? Andy Reid with weeks to prepare? I only have to lay 6.5?

Smashing the Chiefs to cover and may wrap a little parlay bow around this and the Commanders cover I discussed in that decade-old thread and send my kid to the Ivy of his choice (likely won't get in) and a nice little father son trip on the Virgin shuttle to space!
Goff's last 3 road openers, he is averaging over 23 fantasy points. His last game vs. KC, he threw for over 400 yards with 4 passing TD's and 1 rushing TD.
The Lions don't have half the talent that team had though.
The Lions O-line is better. Kupp was hurt and missed the KC game and the rest of the season. Gibbs is still an unknown, but Gibbs and Monty should be close to Gurley and Brown. St. Brown is better than either Cooks or Woods. Josh Reynolds WR 3 for both teams. The top Ram TE barely had 300 receiving yards for the season. I would call the overall offensive talent a draw.
 
Jared Goff on the road? Andy Reid with weeks to prepare? I only have to lay 6.5?

Smashing the Chiefs to cover and may wrap a little parlay bow around this and the Commanders cover I discussed in that decade-old thread and send my kid to the Ivy of his choice (likely won't get in) and a nice little father son trip on the Virgin shuttle to space!
Goff's last 3 road openers, he is averaging over 23 fantasy points. His last game vs. KC, he threw for over 400 yards with 4 passing TD's and 1 rushing TD.
The Lions don't have half the talent that team had though.
The Lions O-line is better. Kupp was hurt and missed the KC game and the rest of the season. Gibbs is still an unknown, but Gibbs and Monty should be close to Gurley and Brown. St. Brown is better than either Cooks or Woods. Josh Reynolds WR 3 for both teams. The top Ram TE barely had 300 receiving yards for the season. I would call the overall offensive talent a draw.
Man, I'm really getting the feeling there isn't a more overrated team this year than Detroit.

The Lions OL is certainly not better than that Rams team, not even close:
LT: Whitworth by a wide margin
LG: Saffold, by a lot
C: Ragnow
RG: Blythe by a little bit
RT: Tie between Sewell and Havenstein

Gurley was a lot better than Monty, and if Gibbs is ever as good as Gurley was, that's a win for the Lions. I will agree St. Brown is better than Cooks or Woods, but the Rams WR group was still better overall, even without Kupp, maybe that won't be the case when Jameson Williams gets going, but he's not playing yet. I like LaPorta's talent, but the Rams were very good at TE, they just evenly split production between Everett and Higbee, who were both good players.

The Lions win Center, and that's probably it in my opinion, anything else is wild speculation on how well rookies will play (game 1 of their careers no less) and perhaps most importantly, McVay>>>>>>>>Campbell/Johnson.

I apologize for going on a bit of a rant, but man, I hate how quickly its gets forgotten how great something/someone was. That Rams team was the best team in the NFL that year, if the QB position didn't count. Goff was what held them back. They were loaded pretty much everywhere else. The Lions have some upside, but right now its 1 elite WR, a few good OL, and some potentially good rookies.
 
Man, I'm really getting the feeling there isn't a more overrated team this year than Detroit.
Actually they are underrated, particularly on defense. The Lions will have a top 5 offense in the NFL and at least a top 10 and possibly a top 5 Defense. Detroit is not that far behind Philly or SF.

The Rams had the top offensive line in 2018, but not one of them even made the pro-bowl. The Lions will have two in the Pro-bowl and Deckard not far behind. The difference is not that wide if any between the two.
 
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Jared Goff on the road? Andy Reid with weeks to prepare? I only have to lay 6.5?

Smashing the Chiefs to cover and may wrap a little parlay bow around this and the Commanders cover I discussed in that decade-old thread and send my kid to the Ivy of his choice (likely won't get in) and a nice little father son trip on the Virgin shuttle to space!
Goff's last 3 road openers, he is averaging over 23 fantasy points. His last game vs. KC, he threw for over 400 yards with 4 passing TD's and 1 rushing TD.
The Lions don't have half the talent that team had though.
The Lions O-line is better. Kupp was hurt and missed the KC game and the rest of the season. Gibbs is still an unknown, but Gibbs and Monty should be close to Gurley and Brown. St. Brown is better than either Cooks or Woods. Josh Reynolds WR 3 for both teams. The top Ram TE barely had 300 receiving yards for the season. I would call the overall offensive talent a draw.
Man, I'm really getting the feeling there isn't a more overrated team this year than Detroit.

The Lions OL is certainly not better than that Rams team, not even close:
LT: Whitworth by a wide margin
LG: Saffold, by a lot
C: Ragnow
RG: Blythe by a little bit
RT: Tie between Sewell and Havenstein

Gurley was a lot better than Monty, and if Gibbs is ever as good as Gurley was, that's a win for the Lions. I will agree St. Brown is better than Cooks or Woods, but the Rams WR group was still better overall, even without Kupp, maybe that won't be the case when Jameson Williams gets going, but he's not playing yet. I like LaPorta's talent, but the Rams were very good at TE, they just evenly split production between Everett and Higbee, who were both good players.

The Lions win Center, and that's probably it in my opinion, anything else is wild speculation on how well rookies will play (game 1 of their careers no less) and perhaps most importantly, McVay>>>>>>>>Campbell/Johnson.

I apologize for going on a bit of a rant, but man, I hate how quickly its gets forgotten how great something/someone was. That Rams team was the best team in the NFL that year, if the QB position didn't count. Goff was what held them back. They were loaded pretty much everywhere else. The Lions have some upside, but right now its 1 elite WR, a few good OL, and some potentially good rookies.
Have you watched Sewell play? He is substantially better than Havenstein. Blythe was picked up preseason after being cut by the Colts. Sullivan was cut after the season and was not a starter the next year. Saffold was a very good run blocker, but below average in pass blocking. Ragnow over Sullivan is the biggest split off all.
 
I think the key to this game - and ultimately how successful 2023 will be - lies with how well this unit plays:

DE Charles Harris
DT Alim McNeill
DT Isaiah Buggs Benito Jones
DE Aidan Hutchinson
LB Derrick Barnes
LB Alex Anzalone
CB Cameron Sutton
CB Jerry Jacobs
SCB Brian Branch
S C.J. Gardner-Johnson
S Kerby Joseph

Key Reserves:
DL John Cominsky, Levi Onwuzurike, Josh Paschal
ED/LB James Houston IV
LB Jack Campbell, Malcolm Rodriguez
CB Emmanuel Moseley
S Tracy Walker III

They’re a LOT more talented than they were a year ago. But it’s a lot of new pieces and many of them have never played together - communication is critical. They’re going to play a very aggressive scheme, with a lot of man coverage and blitzes. A year ago giving up chunk plays was a huge issue.

We’ll find out right away how far they’ve come in addressing that.
 
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They’re going to play a very aggressive scheme, with a lot of man coverage and blitzes.
This will be the interesting part of this chess match. If Detroit plays this way the whole game they face a Mahomes who is actually better against the blitz than if he is not blitzed.

Will Detroit have the patience to actually play conservative against him? That's the fascinating matchup to this game.
 
I think the key to this game - and ultimately how successful 2023 will be - lies with how well this unit plays:

DE Charles Harris
DT Alim McNeill
DT Isaiah Buggs
DE Aidan Hutchinson
LB Derrick Barnes
LB Alex Anzalone
CB Cameron Sutton
CB Jerry Jacobs
SCB Brian Branch
S C.J. Gardner-Johnson
S Kerby Joseph

Key Reserves:
DL John Cominsky, Levi Onwuzurike, Josh Paschal
ED/LB James Houston IV
LB Jack Campbell, Malcolm Rodriguez
CB Emmanuel Moseley
S Tracy Walker III

They’re a LOT more talented than they were a year ago. But it’s a lot of new pieces and many of them have never played together - communication is critical. They’re going to play a very aggressive scheme, with a lot of man coverage and blitzes. A year ago giving up chunk plays was a huge issue.

We’ll find out right away how far they’ve come in addressing that.

In recent years there were positions which were cringe worthy on the Lions defense and very few players you expect to make big plays. Now I look and I am comfortable going 16 players deep and feel any one of them can make a big play at any given time.
 
This is the best LB group Detroit has had since 2014. Not a very high bar admittedly, but I’m pretty excited about Campbell. I’m even more impressed that Barnes has elevated his game to a point that he’s keeping the rookie on the bench (for now), and last years first year darling (Rodrigo) is now mostly a ST guy.

CJGJ brings a new level of intensity to the DB room, that was a great get. He’s a one year mercenary (as is Moseley, who may not suit up for a few more weeks coming off an ACL.) Branch might end up being the steal of the draft; just stacked day after day in an outstanding TC. Great instinctual player.

But the key will be finding a Robin to our Batman (Hutch.) Many candidates, they have a deep rotation along the DL. Houston is a pass rushing specialist they want to develop into more of an every down player. Several solid players but who will step up and take their pass rush to the next level? Detroit generated the 2nd most pressures in the second half of 2022 but they don’t always get home.

Sacks, pressure, hurries and QB hits translate into turnovers. Detroit made the fewest turnovers in 2022 - Goff has the 5th longest streak of not throwing an interception (324 attempts) in NFL history. The biggest reason they were 11th in scoring defense (20.2 /g) over the last 10 games was timely FR & INT.

That progression as a unit has to continue for them to go from “they’re a nice team, good story” to being an NFC contender. They’ve built a solid foundation and the roster doesn’t have any gaping holes. It’s all right there for them. But we all know the history - they’re trying to overcome 66 years of futility.

Love this team, this coach, this GM. By far the best job of roster construction I have ever seen. Six more days until we get a peek at whether they’re the real deal or just another promising young team that’s not quite there yet.
 
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No question, the Lions are a Team moving in the right direction. Tracking their 2023 Season is going to be one of the most enjoyable things about NFL football this year.

...that being said, this is a BIG stage, and a Lions win is a BIG ask: opening game of the season, night/prime time game, road game vs defending Super Bowl Champs qb'd by a generational talent and current best offensive player in the game. Goff's record and performance as a road qb leave a lot to be desired. They play 9 road games this season, and 8 home games. I think they have a reasonable chance to go 5-3 at home. For a reasonable chance at posting a winning record, he's going to have to go minimum 4-5 on the road. The odds of this one going into the W column aren't that great, all things considered. I'll be rooting for the Lions to keep it close and respectable, but I'll let others risk being right about covering a TD spread. I'm hoping for a fun watch, but I'm not setting any unreasonable expectations. A possibly more interesting road dog play is the Texans with a new coach and a rookie QB covering 10 @ the Ravens (there are some interesting historical data trends involving those circumstances), but that's for another thread.

Good luck Lionsguys. Will be pulling for you, but not wagering on you, just yet.
 
When doe the first official injury/practice reports come out? I think Week 1 might be earlier than normal but not sure…

Looks like Kadarius Toney is looking good to go for the opener. No progress on the Chris Jones impasse, that’s a big deal.

Lions last practice was Saturday and 52/53 players were full participants. Starting DT Isaiah Buggs was not around and there’s some weird (unsubstantiated) reports regarding him being involved in a imminent trade. Beat writers say nothing is going on. He was injured in the second half of the final preseason game but it was an illness - not injury - which kept him out of the last practice. AFAIK Detroit should be fully healthy for the first game.
 
Buggs not being available in the rotation isn't great, but it's not like missing a Chris Jones.

Yeah they’ve got good depth along the DL. Buggs was a break out player last year but for him that just meant going from underwhelming to dependable. Between Onwuzurike, Paschal, Jones & Martin they’ll be OK.

*****************

Three more sleeps, folks. All our guests for the watch party have confirmed. Can’t wait!
 
Tempering my enthusiasm for week 1. My hope is that they are not embarrassed. Make it a good game and I’ll be fine…they need to take care of Seattle though . That’s a toe to toe match of equals that they need to win.

Yeah that's kind of where I am at with them. Finished strong last year but that means nothing; lot of those guys are gone, and while they made some upgrades, the new guys haven't played together.

Each year is it's own deal and they have to learn how to win together all over again. All about playing complementary football; the defense doesn't have to be great, but my gosh they cannot give up chunk plays so easily - which they did far too much last year.

I think they'll be ready. They welcome the challenge, they've been pumped about this game since the schedule came out. They know they haven't accomplished anything. If they want respect they have to earn it.

KC is a great team, Mahomes to Kelce is almost impossible to stop. But I like the Lions chances this week.
 
Man, I'm really getting the feeling there isn't a more overrated team this year than Detroit.
Actually they are underrated, particularly on defense. The Lions will have a top 5 offense in the NFL and at least a top 10 and possibly a top 5 Defense. Detroit is not that far behind Philly or SF.

The Rams had the top offensive line in 2018, but not one of them even made the pro-bowl. The Lions will have two in the Pro-bowl and Deckard not far behind. The difference is not that wide if any between the two.

I like Detroit this year too, but going from dead last on defense to top 10. Yeah, don't think that's happening.
 
Man, I'm really getting the feeling there isn't a more overrated team this year than Detroit.
Actually they are underrated, particularly on defense. The Lions will have a top 5 offense in the NFL and at least a top 10 and possibly a top 5 Defense. Detroit is not that far behind Philly or SF.

The Rams had the top offensive line in 2018, but not one of them even made the pro-bowl. The Lions will have two in the Pro-bowl and Deckard not far behind. The difference is not that wide if any between the two.

I like Detroit this year too, but going from dead last on defense to top 10. Yeah, don't think that's happening.
The reason they were dead last was because the first 7 games they were historically the worst defense in history. The last 10 games they were a top 20 defense and by some advanced metrics much higher. They brought in 5 new studs who will be huge upgrades on defense, they have 4 guys back who are healthy now and were injuried all or most of last season. The remaining guys are 2nd and 3rd year players who will all be taking steps up. This defense has been completely revamped and will be the most improved unit in the NFL. People are grossly underestimating it. The defense is loaded with playmakers at every level.
 
Chris Jones will not be there. Massive advantage for the Lions. Goff will have all day to stand there and pick apart the Chiefs.

The Chiefs D usually takes about 6-8 weeks to really gel. This has been consistent in the Spagnoulo years here in KC.

Mahomes and Kelce spent A LOT of time in the offseason goofing around and really enjoying the Super Bowl celebrity - something they couldn’t do in 2020 due to Covid arriving right after they won it.

I think the Lions win this. I really do. They have EVERYTHING to play for here. I’m betting the moneyline for the Lions.
 
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Chris Jones will not be there. Massive advantage for the Lions. Goff will have all day to stand there and pick apart the Chiefs.

The Chiefs D usually takes about 6-8 weeks to really gel. This has been consistent in the Spagnoulo years here in KC.

Mahomes and Kelce soent A LOT of time in the offseason goofing around and really enjoying the Super Bowl celebrity - something they couldn’t do in 2020 due to Covid arriving right after they won it.

I think the Lions win this. I really do. They have EVERYTHING to play for here. I’m betting the moneyline for the Lions.
my man...(in the Denzel Washington voice)......love you playin the reverse psychology thing so early this year in week one....think you did it like 16 weeks or so last year before every kickoff...and it worked....I was right there with you....always found something that could go sideways before every matchup....but they usually figured it out (Reid/Mahomes).....but lets run it back baby....every team scares us....but I'm with you here....think DET and Campbell give us a surprise but Mahomes gets it going by 3rd quarter and they roll in front of the home crowd....

27-17
 
37 y.o, OC Ben Johnson v 63 y.o. DC Steve Spagnola is pretty fascinating. One of the brightest young minds in the game versus a really good veteran coordinator, guy who probably becomes a hot coaching candidate v a guy who probably never gets another shot at the big chair. Unassuming genius going up against one of the most respected guys around.

The Chiefs play great complementary football. The offense is led by the best QB throwing to the best TE, and they're a great team. The defense, historically, comes up with timely sacks and turnovers. If the offense bogs down the defense steps up, and vice versa. Very much in concert with one another. That's the model that Campbell preaches.

Both special teams coordinators are top shelf. Should be a really interesting game on a lot of different levels.

Andy Reid is, on the whole, probably a top 5 all time head coach. Tremendous facilitator, always builds a great staff, great organizer, and brilliant offensive schemes. MCDC is a masterful motivator and while he's a really bright guy, his greatest strength is mental preparation of the team. But his in game decision making - which has, to his credit, improved - still leaves something to be desired at times. But he was hitting his stride in the second half of last year, and it will be interesting to see if he continues to progress at the game day aspects.

Two more sleeps.
 
Moneyline
Kansas City -300
Detroit is +250

I don't gamble so I never understand this. I think I've asked and GM and others have tried to explain it but never sticks.

This means we're getting our butts kicked on Thursday, right?
They give KC "about" a 3 out of 4 chance of winning. If it was -200 it would be closer to 2 out of 3.

So we’re not being respected and should be outraged?

***checks notes…SB champ v team that missed the playoffs…***

Never mind
 
Chris Jones will not be there. Massive advantage for the Lions. Goff will have all day to stand there and pick apart the Chiefs.

The Chiefs D usually takes about 6-8 weeks to really gel. This has been consistent in the Spagnoulo years here in KC.

Mahomes and Kelce soent A LOT of time in the offseason goofing around and really enjoying the Super Bowl celebrity - something they couldn’t do in 2020 due to Covid arriving right after they won it.

I think the Lions win this. I really do. They have EVERYTHING to play for here. I’m betting the moneyline for the Lions.
my man...(in the Denzel Washington voice)......love you playin the reverse psychology thing so early this year in week one....think you did it like 16 weeks or so last year before every kickoff...and it worked....I was right there with you....always found something that could go sideways before every matchup....but they usually figured it out (Reid/Mahomes).....but lets run it back baby....every team scares us....but I'm with you here....think DET and Campbell give us a surprise but Mahomes gets it going by 3rd quarter and they roll in front of the home crowd....

27-17
I think it's all the nut kicks I received in the years from Marty until Andy that makes me nervous every time they play. :lol:
 
Chris Jones will not be there. Massive advantage for the Lions. Goff will have all day to stand there and pick apart the Chiefs.

The Chiefs D usually takes about 6-8 weeks to really gel. This has been consistent in the Spagnoulo years here in KC.

Mahomes and Kelce soent A LOT of time in the offseason goofing around and really enjoying the Super Bowl celebrity - something they couldn’t do in 2020 due to Covid arriving right after they won it.

I think the Lions win this. I really do. They have EVERYTHING to play for here. I’m betting the moneyline for the Lions.
This take from a chiefs fan has me fading this game now.
 
Chris Jones will not be there. Massive advantage for the Lions. Goff will have all day to stand there and pick apart the Chiefs.

The Chiefs D usually takes about 6-8 weeks to really gel. This has been consistent in the Spagnoulo years here in KC.

Mahomes and Kelce spent A LOT of time in the offseason goofing around and really enjoying the Super Bowl celebrity - something they couldn’t do in 2020 due to Covid arriving right after they won it.

I think the Lions win this. I really do. They have EVERYTHING to play for here. I’m betting the moneyline for the Lions.

nice reverse jinx
 
Well I picked Kansas City to win 37-33. Kelce's injury changes things a bit,so...

Kansas City-34
Detroit-33
 

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