DSTs (1 Viewer)

[Boccioni]

Hey everyone,

I love this site and the Shark Pool, and have been a member for years. This is the best site for fantasy hands down. However, one thing that has surprised me about the site is the lack of attention to DSTs. For example, DSTs do not appear on the staff's sleeper/undervalued/overvalued lists, etc., they are few articles exploring DSTs, and even the team reports usually contain only a small amount of analysis, and it is not focused on fantasy scoring. And the Shark Pool rarely examines DSTs either.

To be sure, the conventional wisdom is that DST points are difficult to predict year to year, but it seems that could make a searching and careful site/Shark Pool focus all the more important. And, at least in those leagues that allot a high number of points to DSTs, identifying a sleeper defense (say, the Texans or 49ers or Seahawks last season) can make a fantasy season.

Part of my post is curiosity as to why this is the case, but I thought we could also use this as an opportunity to start a discussion about sleepers for next year. The Jaguars finished strong, and at least in my league's rankings, were a top 10 defense. Same goes for the Dolphins. Will they continue? Will the Steelers and Ravens fall away as a result of injuries and fading offensive performance?

 

[dehaven123]

Here is a current sampling of ADP for Def to help facilitate your discussion.

I think Det, Sea, and Buf rep. good value after the top def. are off the board.

Pos

Rank Pick Name Pos Team Bye Overall Std.

Dev High Low Times

Drafted Graph

1 9.02 San Francisco Defense DEF SF 9 98.0 8.9 7.02 11.04 420

2 10.03 Houston Defense DEF HOU 8 110.7 9.3 8.02 14.04 231

3 10.07 Philadelphia Defense DEF PHI 7 114.6 14.6 7.04 14.05 197

4 11.01 Baltimore Defense DEF BAL 8 120.6 10.6 9.03 14.03 166

5 11.02 Pittsburgh Defense DEF PIT 4 122.1 11.0 8.09 15.02 149

6 11.12 Chicago Defense DEF CHI 6 132.5 13.8 8.12 15.06 239

7 12.04 Green Bay Defense DEF GB 10 136.4 15.1 9.01 15.06 234

8 12.11 NY Giants Defense DEF NYG 11 142.9 13.6 9.11 15.11 264

9 13.01 NY Jets Defense DEF NYJ 9 145.1 13.8 10.02 15.07 250

10 13.07 Detroit Defense DEF DET 5 151.4 14.1 10.06 15.12 332

11 14.03 Seattle Defense DEF SEA 11 158.5 11.6 11.08 15.12 317

12 14.04 Buffalo Defense DEF BUF 8 160.0 12.7 11.07 15.12 293

13 14.07 Dallas Defense DEF DAL 5 162.6 11.4 11.12 15.12 204

14 14.08 Washington Defense DEF WAS 10 163.8 8.4 12.12 15.11 20

15 14.08 Denver Defense DEF DEN 7 164.4 10.2 12.05 15.12 137

16 14.11 New England Defense DEF NE 9 166.7 10.8 12.06 15.12 95

17 14.12 Arizona Defense DEF ARI 10 167.5 10.0 12.12 15.12 13

18 14.12 Cincinnati Defense DEF CIN 8 168.0 9.3 12.11 15.12 99

19 15.06 Minnesota Defense DEF MIN 11 173.6 4.6 14.05 15.12 32

 

[gandalas]

In before "IDP all the WAY!!" posts.

But seriously, go IDP. You won't regret it. I can't really stand TeamDef leagues after experiencing my first IDP league 5 years ago. Just so much easier to build a competitive team - if you stink on offense, then become a defensive juggernaut squad and win that way.

 

[Modog814]

One defense I'll probably end up grabbing in every league I'm in (mostly because nobody else will probably want them) is Arizona. It looked like they really turned the corner last year over the last 9 games allowing only around 19 ppg and never more than 23. They get a decent amount of sacks. Last year they didn't get too many defensive TD's or Turnovers, but I find those are so hard to predict from one year to the next. Also Adrian Wilson played most of the year with a torn Biceps which probably hurt the Turnover #'s. Also they have one of the best return men in league in Patrick Peterson.

I think they could be a very low risk-high reward pick (as much as a defense can be) to use in a Defense by Committee approach.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

If you are looking for a decent defensive play to draft in the last round. Look at minnesota. Play Jacksonville at home and then Indy on the road first two weeks.

spending time analyzing defenses other than schedule hawking is a waste of time.

Last year SF was a free agent and was scooped off the wire in most leagues.

 

[solorca]

One defense I'll probably end up grabbing in every league I'm in (mostly because nobody else will probably want them) is Arizona. It looked like they really turned the corner last year over the last 9 games allowing only around 19 ppg and never more than 23. They get a decent amount of sacks. Last year they didn't get too many defensive TD's or Turnovers, but I find those are so hard to predict from one year to the next. Also Adrian Wilson played most of the year with a torn Biceps which probably hurt the Turnover #'s. Also they have one of the best return men in league in Patrick Peterson. I think they could be a very low risk-high reward pick (as much as a defense can be) to use in a Defense by Committee approach.

I came here to post the same thing. I think Arizona has the potential to make a similar jump like Seattle did last year, and the added bonus of a few Peterson TD's is a nice bonus.

 

[Yenrub]

Buffalo is a defense that could make a big jump in production this year. The addition of Mario Williams will make the defensive line better and outside of Brady and Schaub they don’t play a QB that scares anyone. They could generate a lot of turnovers this season.

 

[Sweet Love]

If you are looking for a decent defensive play to draft in the last round. Look at minnesota. Play Jacksonville at home and then Indy on the road first two weeks.

spending time analyzing defenses other than schedule hawking is a waste of time.

Last year SF was a free agent and was scooped off the wire in most leagues.

As was the third overall scoring WR in fantasy last year, Victor Cruz. The OP is correct; the amount of time/analysis that goes into this position is silly...there was a 70 point difference between DST1 and DST10 in one of my leagues...not as big of a gap as the other positions, but it technically is a 4.4 point difference per week, and does deserve a little more attention.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I also like Buffalo. Many people didn't notice what M. Darius did for that defense, and what happened to that defense when he went down. Add Super Mario and you could end up with a very disruptive D line.

Denver is one of my favorites. Dume and Von tore some #### up and that was with a piss poor offense. If Manning is able to score ANY points this year, that D will get many more opportunities for sacks... and don't forget Champ hangs out in the secondary.

Another sleeper D for me is KC. They were good two years ago, then lost what seemed to be 1/2 of their starters on BOTH sides of the ball to IR last year. Hali is a monster, and causes a lot of problems by himself.

I'd be happy with two of those three and pass on the Philly, Baltimore, Pittsburgh types.

 

[az_prof]

Here is a current sampling of ADP for Def to help facilitate your discussion.I think Det, Sea, and Buf rep. good value after the top def. are off the board.PosRank Pick Name Pos Team Bye Overall Std.Dev High Low TimesDrafted Graph 1 9.02 San Francisco Defense DEF SF 9 98.0 8.9 7.02 11.04 420 2 10.03 Houston Defense DEF HOU 8 110.7 9.3 8.02 14.04 231 3 10.07 Philadelphia Defense DEF PHI 7 114.6 14.6 7.04 14.05 197 4 11.01 Baltimore Defense DEF BAL 8 120.6 10.6 9.03 14.03 166 5 11.02 Pittsburgh Defense DEF PIT 4 122.1 11.0 8.09 15.02 149 6 11.12 Chicago Defense DEF CHI 6 132.5 13.8 8.12 15.06 239 7 12.04 Green Bay Defense DEF GB 10 136.4 15.1 9.01 15.06 234 8 12.11 NY Giants Defense DEF NYG 11 142.9 13.6 9.11 15.11 264 9 13.01 NY Jets Defense DEF NYJ 9 145.1 13.8 10.02 15.07 250 10 13.07 Detroit Defense DEF DET 5 151.4 14.1 10.06 15.12 332 11 14.03 Seattle Defense DEF SEA 11 158.5 11.6 11.08 15.12 317 12 14.04 Buffalo Defense DEF BUF 8 160.0 12.7 11.07 15.12 293 13 14.07 Dallas Defense DEF DAL 5 162.6 11.4 11.12 15.12 204 14 14.08 Washington Defense DEF WAS 10 163.8 8.4 12.12 15.11 20 15 14.08 Denver Defense DEF DEN 7 164.4 10.2 12.05 15.12 137 16 14.11 New England Defense DEF NE 9 166.7 10.8 12.06 15.12 95 17 14.12 Arizona Defense DEF ARI 10 167.5 10.0 12.12 15.12 13 18 14.12 Cincinnati Defense DEF CIN 8 168.0 9.3 12.11 15.12 99 19 15.06 Minnesota Defense DEF MIN 11 173.6 4.6 14.05 15.12 32

Wow. Is HOU really that good? I have them in my dynasty but didn't really think they were that exceptional.