Draft Winds: Which offensive player is best draft fit?
By Dave Hyde February 1, 2011
(this article is a look at the offensive players the Dolphins might select, and I have pulled some of the comments on the key players mentioned)
Jake Locker is something of an x-factor in that he has great athletic ability, but is very inaccurate and has shown virtually no improvement as a passer despite starting for four years, two of which were in a pro style offense. I don’t currently view Locker as an option for Miami in Round 1 mainly because of his huge inaccuracies but also for a number of other reasons; I watched every throw he made in 2010 and whilst I don’t think he’s beyond repair, I think he may be three years away from starting successfully and he’s going to need patience the likes of which is rare to find in the modern game because mechanically he’s pretty sound. And when you’re mechanically sound with a strong arm, usually you’re accurate. It’s when you’re mechanically unsound that the inaccuracies usually follow: not stepping into throws or rolling your hip or if your delivery point is wrong, etc.
What Locker does time and time and time again is throw the pass that’s in the playbook, that’s drawn up on the chalkboard. Which is fine until you realise that the play doesn’t work the way it’s drawn up because there are numerous factors that mean the transition can never be perfect, mostly with people wearing different coloured jerseys. You see on film Locker throwing to a point at a set time in his head that he believes his man will be at. But his receiver may have been knocked off his route. He may have slipped at the line of scrimmage, he may have been bumped at the top of his stem. That doesn’t matter to Jake. He’ll throw to where the chalkboard says. It’s going to be a hard habit to break and for a coaching staff and GM that essentially need to make the playoffs in 2011 or look for new work, you can’t put your eggs into a basket marked Locker, at least not at 15.
Gabbert to me is the best QB in this draft. He has a terrific arm, excellent mobility, he reads the field well and he’s made good improvement from 2009/10. He shows outstanding ability in the pocket to extend plays, beautiful touch on balls and excellent ball placement. It can be something of an adventure deep down the field because he’s no Aaron Rodgers when it comes to accuracy on the long ball, but the kid has ability. However I expect him to come off the board in the first five picks and potentially first overall. As this process rolls on, we’ll bring you interviews with players who played against a number of the top QB prospects in this draft to give you an inside the helmet look at what each one brings to the table. One of those will be Gabbert.
Ryan Mallett is a very interesting proposition. Of the big three, his accuracy would be the biggest concern, especially when pressured. Take the Alabama loss, he looked like a Hall of Famer as the Razorbacks built a big lead but when Kirby Smart brought more edge pressure, mechanically he fell to pieces and his accuracy went with it. He has a monster arm, does a terrific job pre-snap in changing protections and if given the time, will stand tall in the pocket and rifle strikes. His accuracy numbers went up from sophomore to junior years – 59% to 67% - and I think he will probably go off the board in the top 10-15, although he’s a risk and as Chris will doubtless touch upon in time, there were some very ugly rumors about some off-the-field concerns floating around at the Shrine practices.
The third of the big three is the QB who will split opinion most but who has the biggest upside and that’s
Cam Newton of Auburn. There is a long way to go in this process and there may also be some ugly skeletons in his closet that affect his final grade. But when scouts really sit down and watch his tape, they will see that Newton has terrific potential and is a lot less raw than some experts claim. I've watched a lot of college football over the years, from the mid 1980's. Charlie Ward is the best college QB I've ever seen and I watched every snap he took at FSU. Newton is better. He's like a bigger, faster Tommie Frazier but with legitimate passing skills. I've watched Auburn 10 times this season and his game on game improvement is remarkable. But what's so interesting about Newton is that he has solid mechanics. You’re not going to have to break him down and build him up again like Denver did with Tim Tebow. He's very accurate in the short to intermediate range but he’s also very accurate deeper down the field; he doesn't lose accuracy the further he goes.
Kirby Smart's Alabama defense shut down his run capabilities and the Tide jumped out to a 24-3 lead at the half. So Auburn just threw it and they came back on Newton’s shoulders and won. He's a leader. A winner - in HS, part of a National Championship at Florida, a JUCO National Title at Blinn and 14-0 at Auburn and a National Championship ring. He lost once at Blinn. Then he lost 3 times in HS. He wins. I have NO problem in saying that Newton is a better NFL prospect than Tebow. Mechanically, with accuracy, with mobility. He needs to use his feet and his hips more when he throws the ball and Terry Bradshaw believes he needs to work on his wrist action. But for me he has tremendous potential.
Another QB who figures to split opinion-makers is Nevada’s
Colin Kaepernick, who had an excellent Senior Bowl and who was a player Miami showed a great deal of interest in (along with the Redskins). Bill Curry called him the ‘greatest freshman QB he’d ever seen’ after his first season at Nevada and in four years of starting he’s put up some magical numbers. He capped off his glittering WAC career by bringing the Wolfpack back to defeat Boise State and he possesses some fascinating tools; a howitzer of an arm, tremendous running ability and skill to move the pocket, as well as improved accuracy. His delivery is unusual, his mechanics need work and he looks like a deer on roller skates but he does possess upside and is a terrific kid. He has the potential to be a mobile Philip Rivers.
Colin wowed NFL scouts and players at the 2010 Manning Summer Camp and he was similarly impressive in Mobile, moving into the early 2nd, late 1st area at worst. If Miami choose to deal down to regain that 2nd rounder, then Kaepernick could be a legitimate target. Given that the shotgun is more popular than ever in the NFL, it’s worth bearing in mind that the transition won’t be as great as some people think. Chris put together some numbers for the QB’s that played significantly this year for teams in the playoffs, Peyton Manning attempted 76% of his passes out of the gun this year. Aaron Rodgers 65%. Tom Brady 64%. Kevin Kolb 64%. Ben Roethlisberger 62%. Michael Vick 61%. Matt Ryan 58%. Drew Brees 57%. Matt Hasselbeck 56%. Matt Cassel 52%. Joe Flacco 46%. Mark Sanchez 44%. Jay Cutler 15%. Aside from Cutler's anomalous reading, the shotgun is generally used on AT LEAST half of all pass snaps in the NFL today. Think about that.
“We’re looking for a tailback that’s productive, can pass protect and creates yards on his own. You’ve got to catch, block, get yards on your own and trust the play.”
Under ‘Mark Ingram – TB – Alabama’ you will find those words in the dictionary. As one Heisman winner – Ricky Williams likely shuffles out – you could make a very strong case to replace him with another, the 2009 recipient. Although the Dolphins intend to bring one of Williams and Ronnie Brown back, Ricky’s end-of-season comments about Sparano and the offense are unlikely to mean that it’s he that returns. The run game, like the entire offense, struggled with a lack of speed and a lack of big plays. Not helped by tired play calling and a really mediocre offensive line, the inability to create from either back was very disappointing. Williams began to show his age and Brown reverted to dancing at the line of scrimmage, showing that perhaps some of the injuries were beginning to catch up with him.
Ingram himself struggled with some niggling injuries in 2010 and couldn’t quite replicate his form of a year ago, however, he hits the hole quickly, is decisive in his decision making, shows elite vision both at the line of scrimmage and the second level and whilst he won’t blaze a trail in the forty, he has more than enough speed to break long gainers. When you watch him on tape you can see him running away from or maintaining the cushion from legitimate 4.4 defensive backs. I would draft Mark in R1 and be very, very happy about it.
There are downsides; because he breaks so many tackles, he's going to take a pounding - that's a concern. Because he has such great vision, he cuts at remarkable angles and he bounce cuts - jumps and cuts - which puts tremendous pressure, some 600lbs, on those ankles every time he does that. That might be an issue down the road. However he’s a very fine football player.
Is there another back worthy of a first round grade?
Illinois’s Mikel Leshoure is one option, but he’s not a particularly good blocker either in pass pro or down the field when he runs routes. But he’s an excellent runner. A big body at 6’0 and around 230lbs, he has the size to carry the load although 15 would probably be a little high for him. Interestingly, the NFL Advisory Board gave him a 4-7th round grade which seems ludicrous.
If you’re looking for speed, then
Virginia Tech’s Ryan Williams is an interesting proposition. Undersized in the early 200lb range, he is adept at bucking it up between the tackles and has shown during his career that he has everything you look for at the position.
He struggled with injury throughout much of 2010 but flip on a tape of his sophomore campaign and what you see is one eye opening performance after another, flashing great vision, power, pad level and home run ability.
Oklahoma’s DeMarco Murray had an outstanding campaign, although he makes most of his money running to the perimeter. He has outstanding hands and is a very smart football player, however I don’t see him as a proposition for 15, although if Miami dealt down then he could be in the mix. I do have some concerns over his toughness in terms of staying healthy and his ability between the tackles.
Jordan Todman of UCONN is probably a second rounder, although he possesses the sort of explosion that Miami is looking for on offense. You would have to question whether, at 195lbs, he has the frame to stand up as a feature back.
Georgia’s AJ Green will be long gone. An elite receiver with outstanding hands, route running ability, size and speed, he fits into that Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson type of receiver. After Green, his fellow SEC receiving mate
Julio Jones of Alabama bears strong consideration. He’s an interesting player because when you watch him, he doesn’t always block well, he doesn’t always run clean routes – he will telegraph some of his shorter moves – and he doesn’t look that fast. And yet he can clear paths with his blocking, he’s always open and he runs away from people. I think his 40 time is going to be very interesting because Miami doesn’t want two Brandon Marshalls on their hands in terms of players who can’t get open deep.
The same rule of thumb applies with
Jonathan Baldwin, a gifted player whose 2009 season was about as superior as it gets. Chris and I believed that he was NFL-ready as a sophomore, especially as Pitt were assisted by super soph Dion Lewis at TB and serviceable QB play from Bill Stull.
In 2010 his numbers fell as did the entire offensive production – Lewis’s numbers went from 1,700+ to under a thousand – and Baldwin’s attitude became an issue. He looked like he was dogging it at times and didn’t flash the ability that made him so fearful for opponents. He has great hands, body control, will go up and make every catch and can get deep with reported 4.37 speed on a 6’5, 230lb body. If you threw on the 2009 film, you’d be thinking you’d be getting the steal of the century in the mid portion of round 1.
Two speedier guys who could work themselves into Miami’s eye are
Torrey Smith of Maryland and
Titus Young of Boise. Both have return skills and Young had a very good week of practice in Mobile. He has elite speed and does a terrific job as a route runner; he rarely has to gear down into and out of his breaks making him very hard to cover and he uses his body very well to fake out a corner. He’s rail thin at just 174 lbs, but he has legitimate game breaking ability. I wouldn’t pick him at 15, but if we traded down and picked up a second then he’d be in serious consideration.
Smith is a junior who measures in at 6’1, 205 and runs a legitimate 4.35. He too is a threat to go to the house with every touch. He’s also a very good return man, taking two kicks back for six as a sophomore and he holds the ACC career return yardage marker. If he runs as well as expected at the Combine, he could find himself in or around the top 16 picks. Miami has a choice to make; if it takes a WR does it go for the bigger, more physical talents of a Jones or a Baldwin? Or does it look at more of a speedster with return skills, knowing it’s more recent history with Ted Ginn? Look out for Smith. He’s not run many complex routes and he can body catch a little too much, but his acceleration is frightening and when you have 3 guys in Marshall, Bess and Hartline who are very precise, it’s nice to mix in something of a wildcard. That could be the Terp.
One other name to bear in mind if we trade down is
Hurricane Leonard Hankerson, who was another who had a terrific week in Mobile. Hank is just a really good player who does a lot of great work towards the top of his stem and can accelerate out of his cuts with terrific pace. He has good hands, is well sized and if he runs well then he’s going to be a legitimate target in the bottom half of Round 1.
This isn’t a great field for TE’s this year with value coming in later rounds. There is only one tight end who experts believe is worth considering in R1 and that’s
Kyle Rudolph of Notre Dame. To me, he’s one of the single most overrated prospects in the draft. He’s slow, sluggish, rounds off his routes and looks distinctly average. It would be a massive disappointment to me if Miami went to this particular well in the opening round because there’s much greater value with what I believe to be better players, later on.