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[Dynasty] 2022 NFL Draft Class (3 Viewers)

According to Bleacher Report, the Jaguars' owner Shad Khan and GM Trent Baalke have a different opinions on who to take No. 1.

Seems to be the same situation, just a different year for the Jags. Turmoil seems to be setting in before the season even begins as the front office cannot decide who to take with their overall No. 1 pick. According to Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports owner Shad Khan is "leaning toward" Hutchinson while GM Trent Baalke "seems to be infatuated with Walker." Both are very talented edge rushers that come in with massive size, strength, and speed. Hutchinson was considered the odds favorite for weeks to be the No. 1 overall pick, and while he had the better statistics, Walker's Combine numbers have shot him up the board and now is the odds favorite to get that No. 1 spot. It seems like we will not know who's No. 1 till Goddell says it.

SOURCE: Bleacher Report

Apr 27, 2022, 6:46 PM ET
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ESPN's Rich Cimini reports Jets GM Joe Douglas is "smitten" with NC State OT Ikem Ekwonu.

Ekwonu is viewed by many as the top tackle in the draft, and the Jets could have their pick of the bunch at No. 4 overall if edge rushers Aidan Hutchinson, Travon Walker, and Kayvon Thibodeaux go with the first three selections. Ekwonu was believed to be in the mix at No. 1 to the Jaguars before LT Cam Robinson was franchised and subsequently locked up to a multi-year deal. If the top three edge rushers go with the first three picks, the Jets might be choosing between Ekwonu, OT Evan Neal, and CB Ahmad Gardner.

RELATED: 

New York Jets

SOURCE: ESPN.com

Apr 27, 2022, 6:36 PM ET
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Benjamin Allbright@AllbrightNFL

4hTop 10 most accurate mock drafters (3 year average) per @mockdraftdb

1.  @JoshNorris

2.  @dpbrugler

3.  Scott Smith

4.  @DRAFTPLEX

5.  @SteveVanDusen

6. M. Middlehurst-Schwartz

7.  @AllbrightNFL

8. Forrest N. Long

9. Charles Davis

10. @JasonLaCanfora

 
 
No draft rumor thread so posting this here.

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Steelers Depot 7⃣@Steelersdepot
Ravens Expected To Be A Team Interested In Trading Up, With Kayvon Thibodeaux A Target https://steelersdepot.com/2022/04/ravens-expected-to-be-a-team-interested-in-trading-up-with-kayvon-thibodeaux-a-target/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter #Steelers

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Michael Schottey@Schottey

Source close to the situation in Jacksonville tells me that Travon Walker will be the pick tomorrow night.

 
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Faust said:
2022 NFL Mock Draft: Kyle Hamilton falls after pro day results, two QBs go in top six, Chiefs trade up for WR
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Doug Farrar @NFL_DougFarrar

My favorite prospect at the time for every year I've covered the draft...

  • 2009: Aaron Curry (OOF)
  • 2010: Ndamukong Suh
  • 2011: Cam Newton
  • 2012: Robert Griffin III
  • 2013: Ezekiel Ansah
  • 2014: Jadeveon Clowney
  • 2015: Marcus Mariota
  • 2016: Jalen Ramsey
  • 2017: Patrick Mahomes
Doug Farrar @NFL_DougFarrar

  • 2018: Quenton Nelson
  • 2019: Kyler Murray
  • 2020: Joe Burrow (by a crushing margin)
  • 2021: Patrick Surtain II
  • 2022: Kyle Hamilton
 
2022 NFL DRAFT BIG BOARD: RANKING TOP 100 PROSPECTS

NFL Draft prospects 2022: Final big board of top 200 players overall, position rankings

2022 NFL Mock Draft: Four big trades, three involving QBs, highlight Jason La Canfora's one and only mock

Peter Schrager 2022 NFL mock draft 3.0: Eagles, Packers trade up for wide receivers

2022 NFL Mock Draft: B/R NFL Scouting Dept's Final Picks

2022 NFL Mock Draft: Falcons, Saints target a QB; Derek Stingley goes Top 5; Thibodeaux, Hamilton slide

Cris Collinsworth's 2022 NFL Mock Draft: Georgia's Travon Walker goes No. 1 overall to the Jaguars, QB Kenny Pickett goes to the Panthers at No. 6

Tony Pauline’s 3-Round 2022 NFL Mock Draft: Jaguars pick Travon Walker first overall, Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis go back-to-back

Aaron Wilson’s 2022 NFL Mock Draft: Jets make Ahmad Gardner CB1, Malik Willis lands with the Panthers

 
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MY FINAL PRE-NFL DRAFT DYNASTY PPR ROOKIE DRAFT RANKINGS (Non Superflex) (No TE Premium)

ROUND ONE

1.01    RB1    Breece Hall    5-11    217    4.39    Iowa State
Hall is the most complete back in this class.  He combines size, speed and athleticism with a patient running style, good instincts and contact balance and excellent vision.  Hall projects as a three-down workhorse back who can be an asset in the receiving game as well as in the running game.  Despite his size, Hall is not a power back, and while he has excellent straight-line speed, I would not describe Hall as particularly shifty or elusive.  Rather, he wins with vision and patience.  Hall will likely be the 1.01 pick in most Fantasy Rookie Drafts, regardless of format.
Range of Comparisons: David Montgomery/Matt Forte, with Demarco Murray upside
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1.02    RB2    Kenneth Walker III    5-9    211    4.38    Michigan St.
Arguably the best pure runner in this class, Walker not only has elite speed and excellent vision and elusiveness, but his balance at the point of contact and running instincts are outstanding.  Walker burst onto the scene this year after transferring from Wake Forest to Michigan State, finishing the season as the Doak Walker award winner, rushing for 1,636 yards and 18 TDs.  He posted an astonishing 1,168 rushing yards after contact, 21 runs of 20+ yards and forced 89 missed tackles.  Those are elite numbers!  Walker was not utilized much in the passing game, although he shows good receiving instincts and technique.  Walker has cemented himself as one of the top 2 backs in this class, and a solid pick at 1.02 in Dynasty Rookie drafts.
Range of Comparisons: Knowshon Moreno/DeAngelo Williams/Jerick McKinnon, with Clinton Portis/Lesean McCoy upside
This Tier 1 of wideouts could be listed in just about any order until the matchmakers of the NFL Draft determine their destinations.
1.03    WR1    Garrett Wilson    6-0    183    4.38    Ohio State
Garrett Wilson can win from the slot or on the perimeter.  He runs precise routes, and he creates separation better than any other WR in this class.  His hands are reliable.  At 183 pounds, Wilson is a little undersized, but he plays bigger than his weight might suggest.  Despite his frame, Wilson excelled in contested ball situations at Ohio State.  He has excellent body control, will outjump defenders, and he has excellent instincts and boundary awareness.  Wilson impressed with a 4.38 forty at the Combine, and while speed is an asset for Wilson, he does not necessarily play to that timed speed.  There really is not much to dislike about Wilson, however.  He was a five-star recruit, comes out as an early entry Junior, and he rose to the top of a stable of quality, NFL-bound receivers at Ohio State.  Wilson has perhaps the highest floor of all of the 2021 wideouts, and his ceiling is similarly high.  Wilson’s safe floor puts him atop this tier of receivers, for now, but the NFL Draft will largely determine the order.
Range of Comparisons: De’Vonta Smith/Diontae Johnson/Odell Beckham, Jr., with Stefon Diggs/Joey Galloway upside
1.04    WR2    Treylon Burks    6-2    225    4.55    Arkansas
Burks disappointed with a 4.55 forty at the Combine, but that is plenty fast for a wideout with his size and skills.  Moreover, he plays considerably faster.  On game film, Burks is the best receiver in this class.  He can be used in a variety of roles, prompting some to compare Burks to Deebo Samuel, and he certainly possesses that same competitive nature.  I would liken him more to AJ Brown, however.  Burks has excellent hands and can dominate smaller defensive backs.  He will be a matchup problem for NFL defenses.
Range of Comparisons: Michael Floyd/AJ Brown, with Herman Moore/Brandon Marshall/Terrell Owens upside
1.05    WR3    Drake London    6-4    219    –    USC
London’s recovery from a broken ankle has prevented him from running, and while I was not necessarily expecting a sub 4.50 forty, it would have been nice to see his athletic measurables.  London is often compared to fellow USC Alum Mike Evans, and there are obvious physical similarities; however, London does not appear to have the same burst and speed.  Drake London is, however, a contested ball machine.  Throw it in his zip code, and there is a decent chance he is coming down with it.  Drake London has an intriguing blend of size, coordination, ball instincts, vertical dominance, catch radius, ball-tracking ability and my-ball mentality.  Like Burks, London presents a matchup problem for defenses.
Range of Comparisons: Allen Robinson/Marques Colston, with Raymond Berry/Mike Evans/Vincent Jackson upside
1.06    WR4    Jameson Williams    6-2    179    –    Alabama
Williams is the top perimeter receiver in this class.  He easily separates from defenders; however, he is much more than just a level 3 threat.  Williams has a gear that few other receivers have, and he combines that speed with outstanding body control and footwork, elite shiftiness, precise route running and reliable hands.  If he returns from injury with the same speed and explosiveness, Williams is a scoring threat every time he touches the ball.  Teams will be forced to respect Williams’ speed, but he also excels at getting open early, much like Tyreek Hill.  If Williams were to be paired up with one of the league’s top QBs, he immediately moves up in this dynasty receiver class, despite coming off of an ACL injury in the National Championship game.  But for the injury, Williams would be no lower than WR2 in this class, and if you have confidence in his recovery and the willingness to be patient, bump him up.  Williams is young and motivated, ACL surgeries and rehab regimens have come a long way in recent years, and this has been described as a “clean tear”; however, expectations that Williams will be fully ready to participate in training camp may be a bit unrealistic.  I trust that NFL organizations are doing their due diligence in regards to Jameson Williams’ knee, and the fact that he is still being touted as a potential top half of the first round pick speaks volumes.  The team that drafts Williams will likely look to ease the speedster into action, so don’t look for him to be fantasy relevant in the early going, but I am all in on Jameson Williams as a top dynasty asset.  Williams is a steal at 1.06.  He will go much earlier in many drafts.  However, one of these receivers is going to fall to 1.06, making this a prime draft slot.  Williams is pretty clearly among the top tier of receivers.  The NFL Draft will largely sort out the order. 
Range of Comparisons: Ted Ginn/Will Fuller, with DeSean Jackson/Tyreek Hill upside
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1.07    RB3    Isaiah Spiller    6-0    217    4.63    Texas A&M
Spiller disappointed badly with his pre-draft athletic testing, but game film does not lie.  He is one of the best backs in this class.  Despite some athletic limitations, Spiller projects as a potential workhorse RB in the NFL who can stay on the field for all three downs.  He was never expected to run a sub 4.55 forty anyway.  Perhaps Spiller may never become an elite NFL back, but if he finds himself in a favorable situation, he could produce solid RB1 fantasy numbers.  Draft destination is always particularly important to a RB prospect’s value.  Spiller is one of the youngest RB prospects in this draft, he is versatile, with some of the best receiving skills in the class of RBs, and he is proven.  He is a solid pick in the first round of fantasy drafts, especially if you can get him in the latter half of Round 1.  Count me in!
Range of Comparisons: Montee Ball/TJ Yeldon/Chester Taylor/Devin Singletary, with LeVeon Bell/Kareem Hunt/Arian Foster upside
1.08    WR5    George Pickens    6-3    195    4.47    Georgia
I have gone back and forth in my rankings between Olave and Pickens, which may ultimately be determined in favor of the better draft destination.  Olave has the safer floor, but Pickens offers the higher ceiling.  Do you want Ice Man or Maverick?  If Pickens is drafted to a favorable situation, he may move up even higher in my rankings.  Pickens lost 2021 to an ACL injury, but he recovered in record time, a testament to his dedication to rehab and the success of his surgery.  Pickens broke out as a freshman and looked destined to top this class before injuries marred his final two seasons in Athens, and Pickens was unable to capitalize on the early momentum he created.  Although Pickens is smaller than Keyshawn Johnson, he has that same kind of alpha dog, my-ball, bully mentality which should serve him well in the NFL, if he can properly channel it.  Pickens has a slender frame in the mold of AJ Green, but he plays bigger than his 6 foot 3, 195 pound frame might suggest.  Pickens is a smooth athlete, tracks the ball extremely well and has sudden, violent hands at the point of catch.  He won’t shy away from contact, fighting for extra yards and adding value to his team with tenacious blocking.  Pickens has had some episodes of immaturity, and he will need to prove he has matured and put that phase behind him.  It would not be particularly surprising if Pickens ultimately emerges as the best receiver from this class.  From a sheer talent and potential perspective, Pickens is in the discussion as the top wideout in this class.  He fits the profile of a team’s X receiver, but he still needs to refine many aspects of his game.  
Range of Comparisons: Tee Higgins/CeeDee Lamb/Chad Ochocinco/Andre Rison with AJ Green upside
1.09    WR6    Chris Olave    6-0    187    4.39    Ohio State
Olave is the best route runner in this class and will immediately be among the best route runners in the NFL.  The word most commonly used to describe Olave is “smooth”.  He effortlessly and efficiently moves in and out of his breaks, catches the ball cleanly, understands how to break down a defender, especially at the top of his routes, has tremendous body control and possesses both the speed to stretch the field and the versatility to win at all levels and move the chains.  Chris Olave is a consummate professional, in the mold of Larry Fitzgerald.  At 187, Olave is not going to win with strength and physicality, and there is some concern that he could struggle with physical corners who jam him getting off the line, but Olave consistently excelled against elite competition at Ohio State.  With his physical limitations, Olave may be better suited for a role outside the numbers, where he appears more comfortable, rather than working the middle of the field.  Chris Olave is the most pro-ready receiver in this draft and projects immediately as a dependable and productive starting Z receiver for an NFL team.  Olave has some potential to develop into a team’s primary target, but is more likely destined for a complementary role.
Range of Comparisons: De’Vonta Smith/Jerry Jeudy, with Calvin Ridley/Stefon Diggs/Amari Cooper upside
1.10    WR7    Jahan Dotson    5-11    178    4.43    Penn State
Like Chris Olave, Jahan Dotson is undersized and may be best suited for a complementary role in an NFL offense.  However, Dotson is a potential force working from the slot.  He has arguably the most consistent hands in this class, his short-area quickness is elite, and he has the speed and route-running chops to win at all levels of the field.  Dotson will struggle in press coverage, but his ability to beat corners deep will help keep defenses honest.  For PPR dynasty purposes, Dotson could outperform Olave, based on volume, but much will depend on what happens in the Draft.  For now, I have Dotson behind Olave, but that may change.
Range of Comparisons: Diontae Johnson, with Tyler Lockett/TY Hilton upside
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1.11    WR8    Christian Watson    6-4    208    4.36    North Dakota State
There is not a lot of game film of Watson, making him a difficult prospect to evaluate.  Watson’s athletic profile is elite, but that did not translate to on-field production in North Dakota State’s conservative run-first offense.  Watson is likely to be a project in the NFL, but considering he turns 23 in May, there is good reason for Dynasty managers to take a slight pause here.  Much will depend on Draft Capital and Draft Destination.  If Watson is drafted at the end of Round 1 or early Round 2, as is being projected, he is likely intended for an early significant role, but do not be surprised if Watson’s primary initial role is that of a field stretcher with limited, inconsistent fantasy-stat production.  Watson blew up the combine in DK Metcalf fashion, and his ceiling is extremely high; however, we have seen many receivers with elite measurables fail to ever develop into reliable NFL wideouts.  Ideally, you would target Watson in the middle-late portion of the second round in fantasy drafts, but in what is a weaker NFL draft class, you will likely miss out on Watson if you wait that long.  Watson is an intriguing projection.  If you like to swing for the fences, Watson may be your guy in this tier of receivers, but understand he is far from pro ready, and you are drafting him for his ceiling.  Hey batta, batta!  Swing!
Range of Comparisons: Darrius Heyward-Bey/Stephen Hill/Dorial Green-Beckham/Martavis Bryant/Justin Hunter/Marques Valdez-Scantling/Donte Moncrief, with Javon Walker/Alvin Harper/DK Metcalf upside
1.12    WR9    Skyy Moore    5-10    195    4.41    Western Michigan
Skyy Moore is short but stout, in the mold of Brandin Cooks or Golden Tate, which allows him to play through contact despite his height and to churn out yards after contact.  Skyy Moore has excellent hands, and he offers an NFL team some route versatility, although he needs to refine his skills and route tree.  Moore is a good athlete, but he is not going to overwhelm defenders with his athleticism.  Moore is unlikely to ever offer a team WR1 production, but he could generate good PPR numbers working from the slot.
Range of Comparisons: Doug Baldwin/Amon-Ra St. Brown/Randall Cobb/Julian Edelman, with Brandin Cooks/Golden Tate upside

ROUND TWO

2.01    RB4    James Cook    5-11    199    4.42    Georgia
If Cook tipped the scales 15 pounds heavier, he would arguably be the RB1 of this class.  His running style is very similar to that of his brother, Dalvin Cook, but in a lighter frame.  James Cook may not have the frame to beef up to 210-215, but he could eventually settle in around the 205-207 range.  Cook is a tremendous athlete who combines excellent vision, contact balance and speed, burst and quickness with dynamic receiving skills.  Cook will never be a workhorse back, but there is no doubt a role for Cook’s valuable skill set on Sundays.  If you play in a PPR dynasty league, Cook represents value in the second round of your rookie drafts, and, depending on your team’s needs, I might target even him as high as the back end of round one.  His PPR value gives him a relatively safe floor and a decent ceiling.
Range of Comparisons: James White/Kenneth Gainwell/Andre Ellington, with Alvin Kamara/Reggie Bush/Dalvin Cook upside
2.02    QB1    Malik Willis    6-1    215    –    Liberty
NFL teams are placing an emphasis on athletic QBs who can extend plays and thrive outside of the structure of the offense.  Among this class of rookie signal callers, Malik Willis best fits this mold.  He has a missile launcher for an arm and elite athleticism and running skills.  Willis has the raw athletic skills teams desire to challenge NFL defenses.  Skills which cannot be taught.  However, Willis struggles with many of the basic skills required of an NFL QB, such as accuracy, mechanics, reading complex defensive alignments, progressing rapidly through his progressions, and pocket presence.  The team which drafts Malik Willis will be counting on these being skills they can develop in the young QB, and one thing that has emerged from the pre-draft process is that Malik Willis reportedly has a high football IQ and appears to be very coachable.  In terms of fantasy football, no other QB in this class offers the type of upside potential of Malik Willis.  You are drafting Willis for his tremendous ceiling, and if you can get him in the middle of the second round (Non-Superflex), he represents potential value.  Willis is far from pro ready.  He could be a long-term project, and the bust factor is arguably nearly as high as his ceiling, but Konami Code Players are rare, and that is what Willis is at his tremendous ceiling.  In the second round of your fantasy drafts, there are not many players with the potential to dominate in fantasy football, but Willis is one of those players.
Range of Comparisons: Trey Lance/Jalen Hurts/Robert Griffin III with Josh Allen/Lamar Jackson/Michael Vick upside
2.03    WR10    David Bell    6-1    212    4.65    Purdue
Bell disappointed at the Combine, but he was never expected to measure as an impressive athlete.  Bell is a savvy technician.  He has excellent footwork, runs good routes, shields away defenders and plucks the ball cleanly.  Once Bell gets the ball in his hands, he is among the best in this class of receivers at generating yards after the catch.  If Bell hears his name on Day 2 of the NFL Draft, look for him to get on the field early – and I am not betting against him!
Range of Comparisons: Quintez Cephus/Josh Palmer, with Anquan Boldin upside
2.04    RB5    Pierre Strong Jr.    5-11    207    4.37    South Dakota State
Like Christian Watson at WR, Strong is difficult to evaluate due to limited game film.  I see flashes of excellence in Strong’s running style.  Strong does many things extremely well; however, it is important to remember he was facing defenses in the Missouri Valley Conference, rather than a Power Five conference.  Nonetheless, Strong runs with good vision and instincts; when he hits a hole, he explodes through it.  He has reliable hands to be an asset in the receiving game, and he shows some ability in pass protection.  At 5-11, 207, Strong is not a power back, but he runs with determination and has enough size, speed and versatility to be an every-down back in the NFL, if he can make the transition.  As with Christian Watson, Strong is an older rookie, having turned 23 in December.  If Strong can add 5-10 pounds without sacrificing speed and explosiveness, he could become the RB steal of this draft.
Range of Comparisons: Raheem Mostert/Elijah Mitchell/Rashaad Penny, with Kareem Hunt upside
2.05    WR11    Alec Pierce    6-3    211    4.41    Cincinnati
Pierce has the potential to become a team’s WR1.  He has a great blend of size, speed, ball skills, hands and college production.  Pierce is a physical receiver with natural hands and the athleticism to challenge defenses.  Pierce may be best suited as a team’s starting Z receiver, but he also excels from the slot.  Pierce could definitely outproduce a mid-round two fantasy draft investment.
Range of Comparisons: Chad Hansen/Donte Moncrief, with Eric Decker/Jordy Nelson upside
2.06    WR13    John Metchie III    5-11    187    –    Alabama
Metchie was enjoying a stellar season before a torn ACL sidelined him.  As with his college teammate, Jameson Williams, an NFL team will need to be patient with Metchie, but he is a versatile receiver who can contribute at all levels of the field.  Metchie is likely a complementary receiver for an NFL team, and there are elements of his game (especially drops) which could improve with coaching, but I love his volume potential at this point in a rookie fantasy draft.
Range of Comparisons: Freddie Swain/Dante Pettis with Christian Kirk upside
2.07    RB6    Rachaad White    6-0    214    4.48    Arizona State
White is one of the best receiving backs in this class, so he adds some PPR value, if he can work his way into a role for an NFL team.  White came to Arizona State by way of the Community College route, and comes into the draft as an older prospect.  White’s value may be dictated in large part by the draft capital a team invests in him.  If White falls to day three, I am almost certainly pushing him down my rookie fantasy rankings.  White offers a team a true dual threat at RB.  He runs with great patience, and he possesses the speed to threaten the perimeter.  Rachaad White is not only elusive in the open field, but he takes good angles with defenders, slipping off tackles to gain extra yards.  However, he is not an especially good inside runner.  White runs too upright and looks to avoid contact.  White has the size to offer some ability in pass protection, but it is an area he needs to develop.  I see some qualities of a starting-caliber NFL RB in White, but aside from his excellent receiving skills, White is mostly just a backup-level talent with the potential to develop into more.
Range of Comparisons: Charles Sims/CJ Prosise, with Kenyan Drake/Darren McFadden/David Johnson upside
2.08    RB7    Brian Robinson Jr.    6-2    225    4.53    Alabama
Robinson had to wait his turn at Alabama, but once his name was called, he proved to be an incredibly productive back (1,343 yards rushing, 14 TDs).  Robinson is a load at 6-2, 225, and he has decent speed for a back that size.  He is not a liability in the passing game, but Robinson is probably best suited as the power back in a platoon situation.  Robinson is a one-year starter, and there is potential that he develops as more than a part-time back at the NFL level.
Range of Comparisons: Bo Scarbrough/TJ Yeldon/Rhamondre Stevenson, with Carlos Hyde/Brandon Jacobs upside
2.09    TE1    Trey McBride    6-4    246    4.54    Colorado State
There is no Kyle Pitts in this class of Tight Ends, but McBride is being widely underrated.  He is coming off of a tremendously productive season where he hauled in 90 receptions for 1,121 yards.  There is a role in the NFL for a Tight End like McBride, and should hear his name early on Day 2 of the NFL Draft.
Range of Comparisons: Heath Miller/Dennis Pitta, with Zach Ertz/George Kittle upside
2.10    RB8    Zamir White        6-0    214    4.40    Georgia
“Zeus” is an inside grinder, with more speed than quickness.  He runs with a purpose, but he was never featured in Georgia’s platoon RB system.  It is unclear if White can be a meaningful contributor in the receiving game, as he was seldom used in that role.  White appears to be fully recovered from two earlier ACL surgeries, and there is some hope that he may evolve into a more productive runner in the NFL than he was at Georgia.  Zamir White is a former five-star recruit, he is beloved by his coaches and teammates, and he will be an asset to any NFL team.
Range of Comparisons: Roy Helu/Fred Jackson/Knile Davis, with JK Dobbins upside
2.11    RB9    Kyren Williams    5-9    194    4.54    Notre Dame
Williams’ fantasy (and NFL) value has dropped precipitously since his underwhelming performance at the Combine.  Kyren Williams clocked in considerably slower than expected and lighter than expected, a bad combination.  However, he is one of the premiere receiving backs in this class.  He could be valuable asset in the right offense.
Range of Comparisons:  Justin Forsett/Dave Meggett, with James White/Tiki Barber upside
2.12    QB2    Kenny Pickett    6-3    217    –    Pittsburgh
Pickett is arguably the most pro-ready QB in this class.  Much has been made about his dwarf-like mitts, but that has been a bit overblown.  I don’t know that Pickett will ever be an elite QB, but he will be given every opportunity to lead an NFL team.
Range of Comparisons: Andy Dalton/Jared Goff/Mitch Trubisky/Mac Jones, with Tony Romo upside

ROUND THREE

3.01    QB3    Matt Corral        6-2    212    –    Ole Miss
3.02    WR13    Khalil Shakir    6-0    196    4.43    Boise State
3.03    WR14    Jalen Tolbert        6-1    194    4.49    South Alabama
3.04    QB4    Sam Howell        6-1    218    –    North Carolina
3.05    RB10    Jerome Ford        5-11    210    4.46    Cincinnati
3.06    RB11    Dameon Pierce    5-10    218    4.59    Florida
3.07    WR12    Justyn Ross        6-4    205    4.64    Clemson
3.08    WR16    Calvin Austin III    5-8    170    4.32    Memphis
3.09    RB12    Tyler Badie        5-8    197    4.45    Missouri
3.10    RB13    Tyler Allgeier    5-11    224    4.60    BYU
3.11    RB14    Hassan Haskins    6-2    228    –    Michigan
3.12    RB15    Ty Chandler        5-11    204    4.38    North Carolina

ROUND FOUR

4.01    TE2    Greg Dulcich        6-4    243    4.69    UCLA
4.02    TE3    Jelani Woods    6-7    259    4.61    Virginia
4.03    WR17    Wan’Dale Robinson    5-8    178    4.44    Kentucky
4.04    QB5    Desmond Ridder    6-3    211    –    Cincinnati
4.05    TE4    Jeremy Ruckert    6-5    250    –    Ohio State
4.06    WR18    Romeo Doubs    6-2    201    –     Nevada
4.07    QB6    Carson Strong    6-3    226    –    Nevada
4.08    RB16    Abram Smith    6-0    213    4.50    Baylor
4.09    RB17    Kevin Harris        5-10    221    –    South Carolina
4.10    WR19    Erik Ezukanma    6-2    209    4.53    Texas Tech
4.11    WR20    Kevin Austin, Jr.    6-2    200    4.43    Notre Dame
4.12    WR21    Bo Melton        5-11    189    4.34    Rutgers

ROUND FIVE

5.01    RB18    Tyler Goodson    5-9    197    4.42    Iowa
5.02    RB19    Keaontay Ingram    6-0    221    4.53    USC
5.03    WR22    Velus Jones, Jr.    6-0    204    4.31    Tennessee
5.04    WR23    Tyquan Thornton    6-2    181    4.28    Baylor
5.05    RB20    D’Vonte Price    6-1    210    4.38    Florida International
5.06    RB21    Jerrion Ealy        5-8    189    4.52    Ole Miss
5.07    RB22    Zonovan Knight    5-11    209    4.58    North Carolina St.
5.08    RB23    Tyrion Davis-Price    6-0    211    4.48    LSU
5.09    WR24    Kyle Philips        5-11    189    4.58    UCLA
5.10    QB7    Bailey Zappe        6-1    215    –    Western Kentucky
5.11    WR25    Samori Toure    6-1    191    4.43    Nebraska
5.12    WR26    Isaiah Weston    6-4    214    4.42    Northern Iowa

POSITION RANKINGS:

QUARTERBACK

QB1    (Tier 1)    Malik Willis    6-1    215    Liberty (Round 1)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
QB2    (Tier 2)    Kenny Pickett    6-3    217    Pittsburgh (Round 1)
QB3    (Tier 2)    Matt Corral    6-2    212    Ole Miss (Round 1)
QB4    (Tier 2)    Sam Howell    6-1    218    North Carolina (Round 2)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
QB5    (Tier 3)    Desmond Ridder    6-3    211    Cincinnati (Round 2)
QB6    (Tier 3)    Carson Strong    6-3    226    Nevada (Round 3)
QB7    (Tier 3)    Bailey Zappe    6-1    215    Western Kentucky (Round 4)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
QB8    (Tier 4)    Kaleb Eleby    6-1    208    Western Michigan (Round 5)
QB9    (Tier 4)    Jack Coan    6-3    218    Notre Dame (Round 7)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
QB10    (Tier 5)    Cole Kelley    6-7    249    Southeastern Louisiana (UDFA)
QB11    (Tier 5)    Skylar Thompson     6-2    219    Kansas State (UDFA)
QB12    (Tier 5)    Brock Purdy    6-1    220    Iowa State (UDFA)
QB13    (Tier 5)    Dustin Crum    6-3    201    Kent State (UDFA)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
QB14    (Tier 6)    Aqeel Glass    6-5    215    Alabama A&M (UDFA)
QB15    (Tier 6)    EJ Perry    6-2    210    Brown (UDFA)
QB16    (Tier 6)    Eric Barriere    6-1    210    Eastern Washington (UDFA)
QB17    (Tier 6)    Chase Garbers    6-2    225    California (UDFA)
QB18    (Tier 6)    Bryce Witt    6-4    235    Chowan (UDFA)
QB19    (Tier 6)    Geremy Hickbottom    6-4    209    Tennessee State (UDFA)
QB20    (Tier 6)    D’Eriq King    5-9    202    Miami (UDFA) (Position Switch)

RUNNING BACK

RB1    (Tier 1)    Breece Hall    5-11    217    4.39    Iowa State (Round 2)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RB2    (Tier 2)    Kenneth Walker III    5-9    211    4.38    Michigan State (Round 2)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RB3    (Tier 3)    Isaiah Spiller    6-0    217    4.63    Texas A&M (Round 2)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RB4    (Tier 4)    James Cook    5-11    199    4.42    Georgia (Round 3)
RB5    (Tier 4)    Pierre Strong Jr.    5-11    207    4.37    South Dakota State (Round 4)
RB6    (Tier 4)    Rachaad White    6-0    214    4.48    Arizona State (Round 4)
RB7    (Tier 4)    Brian Robinson Jr.    6-2    225    4.53    Alabama (Round 4)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RB8    (Tier 5)    Zamir White    6-0    214    4.40    Georgia (Round 4)
RB9    (Tier 5)    Kyren Williams    5-9    194    4.54    Notre Dame (Round 4)
RB10    (Tier 5)    Jerome Ford    5-11    210    4.46    Cincinnati (Round 4)
RB11    (Tier 5)    Dameon Pierce    5-10    218    4.59    Florida (Round 4)
RB12    (Tier 5)    Tyler Badie    5-8    197    4.45    Missouri (Round 4)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RB13    (Tier 6)    Tyler Allgeier    5-11    224    4.60    BYU (Round 4)
RB14    (Tier 6)    Hassan Haskins    6-2    228    –    Michigan (Round 5)
RB15    (Tier 6)    Ty Chandler    5-11    204    4.38    North Carolina (Round 6)
RB16    (Tier 6)    Abram Smith    6-0    213    4.50    Baylor (Round 5)
RB17    (Tier 6)    Kevin Harris    5-10    221    –    South Carolina (Round 7)
RB18    (Tier 6)    Tyler Goodson    5-9    197    4.42    Iowa (Round 6)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RB19    (Tier 7)    Keaontay Ingram    6-0    221    4.53    USC (Round 7)
RB20    (Tier 7)    D’Vonte Price    6-1    210    4.38    Florida International (Round 6)
RB21    (Tier 7)    Jerrion Ealy    5-8    189    4.52    Ole Miss (Round 6)
RB22    (Tier 7)    Zonovan Knight    5-11    209    4.58    North Carolina State (Round 7) 
RB23    (Tier 7)    Tyrion Davis-Price    6-0    211    4.48    LSU (UDFA)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RB23    (Tier 8 )  Isaih Pacheco    5-10    216    4.37    Rutgers (Round 7)
RB24    (Tier 8 )  Max Borghi    5-9    207    4.51    Washington State (Round 7)
RB26    (Tier 8 )  Trestan Ebner    5-11    206    4.43    Baylor (UDFA)
RB27    (Tier 8 )  Master Teague III    5-11    221    4.44    Ohio State (UDFA)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RB28    (Tier 9)    ZaQuandre White    6-0    206    4.63    South Carolina (Round 7)
RB29    (Tier 9)    Sincere McCormick    5-9    205    4.60    UTSA (Round 6)
RB30    (Tier 9)    CJ Verdell    5-8    194    4.65    Oregon (Round 7)
RB31    (Tier 9)    Jashaun Corbin    5-11    203    4.59    Florida State (Round 6)
RB32    (Tier 9)    TJ Pledger    5-9    196    4.43    Utah (UDFA)
RB33    (Tier 9)    Ronnie Rivers    5-8     195    4.60    Fresno State (UDFA)
RB34    (Tier 9)    Kennedy Brooks    5-11    209    4.59    Oklahoma (UDFA)
RB35    (Tier 9)    Bryant Koback    6-0    210    4.47    Toledo (UDFA)
RB36    (Tier 9)    Snoop Conner    5-10    222    4.59    Ole Miss (UDFA)
RB37    (Tier 9)    Jaylen Warren    5-8    204    4.55    Oklahoma State (UDFA)
RB38    (Tier 9)    Leddie Brown    6-0    213    4.64    West Virginia (UDFA)
RB39    (Tier 9)    Shermari Jones    6-0    213    4.55    Coastal Carolina (UDFA)
RB40    (Tier 9)    Greg Bell    5-11    201    4.63    San Diego State (UDFA)
RB41    (Tier 9)    DeAndre Torrey    5-7    201    4.56    North Texas (UDFA)
RB42    (Tier 9)    Jah-Maine Martin    5-9    220    4.54    North Carolina A&T (UDFA)

WIDE RECEIVER

WR1    (Tier 1)    Garrett Wilson    6-0    183    4.38    Ohio State (Round 1)
WR2    (Tier 1)    Treylon Burks    6-2    225    4.55    Arkansas (Round 1)
WR3    (Tier 1)    Drake London    6-4    219    –    USC (Round 1)
WR4    (Tier 1)    Jameson Williams    6-2    179    –    Alabama (Round 1)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WR5    (Tier 2)    George Pickens    6-3    195    4.47    Georgia (Round 2)
WR6    (Tier 2)    Chris Olave    6-0    187    4.39    Ohio State (Round 1)
WR7    (Tier 2)    Jahan Dotson    5-11    178    4.43    Penn State (Round 2)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WR8    (Tier 3)    Christian Watson    6-4    208    4.36    N. Dakota State (Round 2)
WR9    (Tier 3)    Skyy Moore    5-10    195    4.41    Western Michigan (Round 2)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WR10    (Tier 4)    David Bell    6-1    212    4.65    Purdue (Round 3)
WR11    (Tier 4)    Alec Pierce    6-3    211    4.41    Cincinnati (Round 3)
WR12    (Tier 4)    John Metchie III    5-11    187    –    Alabama (Round 3)
WR13    (Tier 4)    Khalil Shakir    6-0    196    4.43    Boise State (Round 3)
WR14    (Tier 4)    Jalen Tolbert    6-1    194    4.49    South Alabama (Round 3)
WR15    (Tier 4)    Justyn Ross    6-4    205    4.64    Clemson (Round 3)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WR16    (Tier 5)    Calvin Austin III    5-8    170    4.32    Memphis (Round 3)
WR17    (Tier 5)    Wan’Dale Robinson    5-8    178    4.44    Kentucky (Round 3)
WR18    (Tier 5)    Velus Jones, Jr.    6-0    204    4.31    Tennessee (Round 5)
WR19    (Tier 5)    Romeo Doubs    6-2    201    –     Nevada (Round 4)
WR20    (Tier 5)    Bo Melton    5-11    189    4.34    Rutgers (Round 5)
WR21    (Tier 5)    Tyquan Thornton    6-2    181    4.28    Baylor (Round 5)
WR22    (Tier 5)    Erik Ezukanma    6-2    209    4.53    Texas Tech (Round 7)
WR23    (Tier 5)    Kevin Austin, Jr.    6-2    200    4.43    Notre Dame (UDFA)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WR24    (Tier 6)    Kyle Philips    5-11    189    4.58    UCLA (Round 7)
WR25    (Tier 6)    Samori Toure    6-1    191    4.43    Nebraska (UDFA)
WR26    (Tier 6)    Isaiah Weston    6-4    214    4.42    Northern Iowa (Round 7)
WR27    (Tier 6)    Danny Gray    6-1    182    4.33    SMU (Round 6)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WR28    (Tier 7)    Tyshaun James    6-2    216    4.45    Central Connecticut (UDFA)
WR29    (Tier 7)    Dennis Houston    6-1    198    4.45    Western Illinois (UDFA)
WR30    (Tier 7)    Emeka Emezie    6-2    212    4.62    North Carolina State (UDFA)
WR31    (Tier 7)    Makai Polk    6-3    195    4.59    Mississippi State (Round 7)
WR32    (Tier 7)    Jaquarii Roberson    6-0    186    4.43    Wake Forest (UDFA)
WR33    (Tier 7)    Reggie Roberson, Jr.    5-11    192    4.42    SMU (Round 7)
WR34    (Tier 7)    Tre Turner    6-2    179    4.51    Virginia Tech (Round 6)
WR35    (Tier 7)    Dai’Jean Dixon    6-3    205    4.62    Nicholls State (Round 7)
WR36    (Tier 7)    Dontario Drummond    6-1    215    4.65    Ole Miss (Round 7)
WR37    (Tier 7)    Charleston Rambo    6-1    180    4.57    Miami (UDFA)
WR38    (Tier 7)    Dareke Young    6-2    223    4.44    Lenoir-Rhyne (UDFA)
WR39    (Tier 7)    Jaivon Heiligh    6-2    200    4.63    Coastal Carolina (UDFA)
WR40    (Tier 7)    Jerreth Sterns    5-9    183    4.49    Western Kentucky (UDFA)
WR41    (Tier 7)    Deven Thompkins    5-7    153    4.35    Utah State (UDFA)
WR42    (Tier 7)    Ty Fryfogle    6-1    204    4.53    Indiana (UDFA)
WR43    (Tier 7)    Josh Johnson    5-10    179    4.62    Tulsa (UDFA)
WR44    (Tier 7)    Malachi Carter    6-3    195    –     Georgia Tech (UDFA)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WR45    (Tier 8 )  Dee Anderson    6-5    220    4.50    Alabama A&M (UDFA)
WR46    (Tier 8 )  Taysir Mack    6-2    200    4.47    Pittsburgh (UDFA)
WR47    (Tier 8 )  Marquis McClain    6-2    215    4.61    Southern (UDFA)
WR48    (Tier 8 )  Jack Sorenson    6-0    195    4.60    Miami (Ohio) (UDFA)
WR49    (Tier 8 )  Jequez Ezzard    5-9    190    4.43    Sam Houston State (UDFA)
WR50    (Tier 8 )  Devon Williams    6-5    210    4.65    Oregon (UDFA)
WR51    (Tier 8 ) Shemar Bridges    6-4    207    4.66    Fort Valley State (UDFA)
WR52    (Tier 8) Calvin Jackson, Jr.    5-10    194    4.52    Washington State (UDFA)

TIGHT END

TE1    (Tier 1)    Trey McBride    6-4    246    4.54    Colorado State (Round 2)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TE2    (Tier 2)    Greg Dulcich    6-4    243    4.69    UCLA (Round 3)
TE3    (Tier 2)    Jelani Woods    6-7    259    4.61    Virginia (Round 4)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TE4    (Tier 3)    Jeremy Ruckert    6-5    250    –    Ohio State (Round 3)
TE5    (Tier 3)    Charlie Kolar    6-7    252    –    Iowa State (Round 4)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TE6    (Tier 3)    Isaiah Likely    6-5    238    4.80    Coastal Carolina (Round 3)
TE7    (Tier 3)    Chigoziem Okonkwo     6-3    238    4.52    Maryland (Round 6)
TE8    (Tier 3)    Cade Otton    6-5    247    –    Washington (Round 3)
TE9    (Tier 3)    Jalen Wydermyer    6-4    255    5.03    Texas A&M (Round 3)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TE10    (Tier 4)    Grant Calcaterra    6-4    241    4.62    SMU (Round 6)
TE11    (Tier 4)    Cole Turner    6-6    246    4.76    Nevada (Round 5)
TE12    (Tier 4)    Jake Ferguson    6-5    250    4.81    Wisconsin (Round 5)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TE13    (Tier 5)    Derrick Deese, Jr.    6-4    235    4.93    San José State (Round 5)
TE14    (Tier 5)    Lucas Krull    6-6    253    4.54    Pittsburgh (Round 6)
TE15    (Tier 5)    James Mitchell    6-3    255    4.68    Virginia Tech (Round 6)
TE16    (Tier 5)    Daniel Bellinger    6-4    252    4.63    San Diego State (Round 5)
TE17    (Tier 5)    Austin Allen    6-8    253    4.83    Nebraska (UDFA)
TE18    (Tier 5)    Teagan Quitoriano    6-6    259    4.92    Oregon State (UDFA)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TIER BREAK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TE19    (Tier 6)    Curtis Hodges    6-8    244    4.85    Arizona State (UDFA)
TE20    (Tier 6)    Connor Heyward    5-11    233    4.72    Michigan State (UDFA) (FB/TE)
TE21    (Tier 6)    Isiah Macklin    6-4    236    4.77    North Carolina Central (UDFA)
TE22    (Tier 6)    Jeremiah Hall    6-2    239    4.96    Oklahoma (UDFA)
TE23    (Tier 6)    Gerrit Prince    6-4    239    4.77    UAB (UDFA)
TE24    (Tier 6)    Xavier Gaines    6-2    231    4.71    Marshall (UDFA)

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Consensus predraft vs. post draft rankings.   Average and SD w/o min and max. eyeballed tiers.  

Top five risers into post draft rounds 1 and 2: Alec Pierce (+10), James Cook (+8), Kenny Pickett (+8), John Metchie (+7), Christian Watson (+4)

Top five fallers from pre draft rounds 1 and 2: Justyn Ross (-18), Jerome Ford (-17), Malik Willis (-11), Isaiah Spiller (-10), Zamir White (-7)

High variance (SD): Rachaad White, Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, Wan'dale Robinson, Tyrion Davis-Price

Code: 
pre	post	Player		Pos	Team	Avg	SD
1	1	Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	1.22	0.65

4	2	Drake London	WR	Atl	3.11	1.53
3	3	Kenneth Walker RB	Sea	3.61	1.88
2	4	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	3.67	1.19

6	5	Treylon Burks	WR	Ten	5.17	1.58
5	6	Jam. Williams	WR	Det	5.22	1.17

7	7	Chris Olave	WR	NO	6.72	1.36

12	8	C. Watson	WR	GB	8.67	1.57
9	9	Skyy Moore	WR	KC	8.83	1.15

10	10	Jahan Dotson	WR	Was	10.83	1.86
19	11	James Cook	RB	Buf	12.22	3.12
11	12	George Pickens	WR	Pit	12.22	2.90

14	13	Rachaad White	RB	TB	15.39	4.15
17	14	David Bell	WR	Cle	16.94	2.60
22	15	John Metchie	WR	Hou	17.78	2.32
26	16	Alec Pierce	WR	Ind	18.11	5.28

25	17	Kenny Pickett	QB	Pit	19.72	5.69
8	18	Isaiah Spiller	RB	LAC	20.06	4.66
20	19	Dameon Pierce	RB	Hou	20.17	4.77
15	20	Trey McBride	TE	Ari	20.35	5.26
21	21	Jalen Tolbert	WR	Dal	21.17	5.04
18	22	B. Robinson Jr.	RB	Was	21.39	4.51

16	23	Zamir White	RB	LV	23.33	4.34
13	24	Malik Willis	QB	Ten	23.50	6.30
32	25	Wan. Robinson	WR	NYG	23.56	7.00

27	26	Desmond Ridder	QB	Atl	26.44	4.62

29	27	Matt Corral	QB	Car	29.17	5.06
41	28	Tyquan Thorton	WR	NE	30.06	6.31
41	29	T. Davis-Price	RB	SF	30.47	8.54

31	30	Tyler Allgeier	RB	Atl	32.12	5.45
41	31	Jelani Woods	TE	Ind	32.56	6.34
30	32	Khalil Shakir	WR	Buf	32.65	5.27
28	33	Pierce Strong 	RB	NE	33.38	5.16
37	34	Greg Dulcich	TE	Den	34.61	6.41
41	35	Danny Gray	WR	SF	34.88	7.25

41	36	Velus Jones Jr.	WR	Chi	36.00	6.59
34	37	Calvin Austin	WR	Pit	36.24	4.19
41	38	Romeo Doubs	WR	GB	36.56	4.97
41	39	Hassan Haskins	RB	Ten	37.24	4.31
38	40	Keaontay Ingram	RB	Ari	37.69	4.94
 
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Superflex - less numbers but not surprising results.  Average and SD w/o max and min.  No obvious tiers yet.

Top five risers in rounds 1 + 2 (1-24): Alec Pierce (+10), James Cook (+8), Christian Watson (+7), Dameon Pierce (+7), Skyy Moore (+6)

Top five fallers in rounds 1 + 2 (1-24): Sam Howell (-13), Malik Willis (-11), Isaiah Spiller (-9), Matt Corral (-5), Desmond Ridder (-4)

High variance: Malik Willis, Dameon Pierce, Sam Howell, Ty Davis-Price, Wan'dale Robinson

Code: 
Pre	Post	Player		Pos	Team	Avg	SD
1	1	Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	1.00	0.00
5	2	Drake London	WR	Atl	2.33	0.52
4	3	Kenneth Walker	RB	Sea	3.50	1.64
3	4	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	4.67	1.21
6	5	Treylon Burks	WR	Ten	4.83	1.17
7	6	Jam. Williams	WR	Det	5.67	1.37
8	7	Chris Olave	WR	NO	7.17	1.94
9	8	Kenny Pickett	QB	Pit	8.33	0.82
15	9	Skyy Moore	WR	KC	10.33	1.03
17	10	Chris. Watson	WR	GB	11.17	0.75
16	11	Jahan Dotson	WR	Was	12.17	2.04
21	12	James Cook	RB	Buf	12.83	2.99
2	13	Malik Willis	QB	Ten	13.33	5.13
13	14	George Pickens	WR	Pit	14.00	1.67
10	15	Matt Corral	QB	Car	15.83	2.14
12	16	Desmond Ridder	QB	Atl	17.00	3.74
18	17	Rachaad White	RB	TB	17.17	1.94
25	18	Dameon Pierce	RB	Hou	17.83	4.79
22	19	Trey McBride	TE	Ari	19.33	3.20
11	20	Isaiah Spiller	RB	LAC	19.83	3.19
19	21	B. Robinson Jr.	RB	Was	20.67	2.80
24	22	John Metchie	WR	Hou	22.50	2.07
20	23	David Bell	WR	Cle	23.33	4.84
34	24	Alec Pierce	WR	Ind	23.60	3.78
23	25	Zamir White	RB	LV	24.67	3.14
27	26	Wan' Robinson	WR	NYG	27.00	6.07
14	27	Sam Howell	QB	Was	27.75	9.74
28	28	Jalen Tolbert	WR	Dal	28.33	2.58
30	29	Pierre Strong	RB	NE	30.80	1.79
41	30	Ty Davis-Price	RB	SF	31.50	8.29
41	31	Jelani Woods	TE	Ind	31.50	5.17
32	32	Tyler Allgeier	RB	Atl	33.00	6.39
37	33	Greg Dulcich	TE	Den	33.50	6.50
35	34	Khalil Shakir	WR	Buf	34.00	2.83
41	35	Tyquan Thornton	WR	NE	34.60	2.30
29	36	Jerome Ford	RB	Cle	34.80	4.66
41	37	Hassan Haskins	RB	Ten	35.80	4.32
38	38	Cal. Austin III	WR	Pit	36.50	3.11
40	39	Jeremy Ruckert	TE	NYJ	36.80	4.92
41	40	Velus Jones Jr	WR	Chi	37.00	3.81
 
miqws said:
Superflex - less numbers but not surprising results.  Average and SD w/o max and min.  No obvious tiers yet.

Top five risers in rounds 1 + 2 (1-24): Alec Pierce (+10), James Cook (+8), Christian Watson (+7), Dameon Pierce (+7), Skyy Moore (+6)

Top five fallers in rounds 1 + 2 (1-24): Sam Howell (-13), Malik Willis (-11), Isaiah Spiller (-9), Matt Corral (-5), Desmond Ridder (-4)

High variance: Malik Willis, Dameon Pierce, Sam Howell, Ty Davis-Price, Wan'dale Robinson

Pre Post Player Pos Team Avg SD
1 1 Breece Hall RB NYJ 1.00 0.00
5 2 Drake London WR Atl 2.33 0.52
4 3 Kenneth Walker RB Sea 3.50 1.64
3 4 Garrett Wilson WR NYJ 4.67 1.21
6 5 Treylon Burks WR Ten 4.83 1.17
7 6 Jam. Williams WR Det 5.67 1.37
8 7 Chris Olave WR NO 7.17 1.94
9 8 Kenny Pickett QB Pit 8.33 0.82
15 9 Skyy Moore WR KC 10.33 1.03
17 10 Chris. Watson WR GB 11.17 0.75
16 11 Jahan Dotson WR Was 12.17 2.04
21 12 James Cook RB Buf 12.83 2.99
2 13 Malik Willis QB Ten 13.33 5.13
13 14 George Pickens WR Pit 14.00 1.67
10 15 Matt Corral QB Car 15.83 2.14
12 16 Desmond Ridder QB Atl 17.00 3.74
18 17 Rachaad White RB TB 17.17 1.94
25 18 Dameon Pierce RB Hou 17.83 4.79
22 19 Trey McBride TE Ari 19.33 3.20
11 20 Isaiah Spiller RB LAC 19.83 3.19
19 21 B. Robinson Jr. RB Was 20.67 2.80
24 22 John Metchie WR Hou 22.50 2.07
20 23 David Bell WR Cle 23.33 4.84
34 24 Alec Pierce WR Ind 23.60 3.78
23 25 Zamir White RB LV 24.67 3.14
27 26 Wan' Robinson WR NYG 27.00 6.07
14 27 Sam Howell QB Was 27.75 9.74
28 28 Jalen Tolbert WR Dal 28.33 2.58
30 29 Pierre Strong RB NE 30.80 1.79
41 30 Ty Davis-Price RB SF 31.50 8.29
41 31 Jelani Woods TE Ind 31.50 5.17
32 32 Tyler Allgeier RB Atl 33.00 6.39
37 33 Greg Dulcich TE Den 33.50 6.50
35 34 Khalil Shakir WR Buf 34.00 2.83
41 35 Tyquan Thornton WR NE 34.60 2.30
29 36 Jerome Ford RB Cle 34.80 4.66
41 37 Hassan Haskins RB Ten 35.80 4.32
38 38 Cal. Austin III WR Pit 36.50 3.11
40 39 Jeremy Ruckert TE NYJ 36.80 4.92
41 40 Velus Jones Jr WR Chi 37.00 3.81
Click to expand...

Do you have the results for TE premium?

 
Unwrittenlaw said:
Do you have the results for TE premium?
Click to expand...
I do not - not enough data.  I play in a couple of leagues (2 TE, one TE premium), also in weird scoring leagues.  An approximation is to shift the players one full round (~12 spots up) in dynasty ranks.  Adjust that per league preferences - can get an idea via trades done with TEs.  

For rookies, the forum poll is a good place for a price check.  History (Kelce, Ertz, Waller, Andrews, Kittle) says taking swings in the later rounds can bear some fruit.

 
miqws said:
Post draft - not behind paywall (yet).

https://establishtherun.com/rookie-dynasty-rankings-2022/
Click to expand...
ETR and other providers are well thought out and typically make strong cases.

This year's group is an outlier cohort. Why?

The landing spots for the top college producers are the worst I can remember: London- Atl., Olave- NO, J. Williams- Det., Dotson-Wash., Wilson- NYJ, Burks- Tenn.

These six were, generally speaking, the top 6 for most and all landed in bottom quartile QB situations:

Mariota/Ridder- Bottom 5 in the NFL. Pitts is the lead target recipient. Expected to be a bottom feeding offense.

Jameis/Hill- Bottom 5 in the NFL. No Payton. Michael Thomas the likely WR1.

Goff- Bottom 5 in the NFL. Conservative play calling. 

Wentz- 3rd team in 3 years. Injuries abound. Character questions. McLaurin there already.

Z. Wilson- Uneven rookie year. Surely in the bottom 8 QBs right now but does have the chance to get better. G. Wilson is the best of this bunch.

Tannehill- In the average range of QBs, but the Willis pick offers uncertainty. Burks will get targets but it remains The King's offense.

My point is that I'd take Moore and Watson over all of them. Rodgers and Mahomes are two of the five best QBs in the league and massive opportunity awaits- no Hill, no Adams. Folks are too married to talent metrics and groupthink/rigidity to maintaining pre-draft rankings abound.

Step out of predraft paradigms that do not accurately weigh opportunity and prosper in your rookie drafts. You won't have to take Moore and Watson at 1.01 and 1.02 but I think that's where we will see this class both this year and beyond.

 
 
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