Dynasty: Josh Gordon is not a top tier player...right? (1 Viewer)

[Wise Old Owl]

I think the question everyone should be asking is "Did Gordon benefit from his 2013 circumstances or succeed despite them?" Obviously the guy is talented, but do I honestly think that he put up those numbers with a QB and Offensive scheme that was holding him back? Sometimes players benefit from mediocre to bad QB's that lock on to their #1. The browns also had a historically bad running game and were constantly playing from behind. Everyone is acting like the guy who saw as many targets as he did is in for a BIGGER piece of what is sure to be a more conservative offense.

If this team improves I could see it running more and forcing it less to Gordon. There is certainly a way this situation can get worse.

 

[Soulfly3]

Wow... so you wanna play that game?

The game where you put words and my mouth and then counter them? No thanks.

ok, so you're still ignoring the stats I posted that were tailor made to your "starting" requests... comparing both players' second year in the league.

Im not even hinting that Gordon is as good as Rice... just to show the type of company he's with over his first two years

 

[Concept Coop]

Im not even hinting that Gordon is as good as Rice... just to show the type of company he's with over his first two years

Rice had 39 TDs over his first two full seasons (28 games). Gordon had 14 over 30.

A strong start to a career does not put you in the company of Jerry Rice. It puts you in the company of DeSean Jackson, Victor Cruz, Michael Clayton, Braylon Edwards and Mike Williams.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Where would Gordon have finished THIS year among WRs if he played 16 games, but we regressed his numbers by 25%?

 

[Concept Coop]

Where would Gordon have finished THIS year among WRs if he played 16 games, but we regressed his numbers by 25%?

75/1,370/7.75

 

[Soulfly3]

Im not even hinting that Gordon is as good as Rice... just to show the type of company he's with over his first two years

Rice had 39 TDs over his first two full seasons (28 games). Gordon had 14 over 30.

A strong start to a career does not put you in the company of Jerry Rice. It puts you in the company of DeSean Jackson, Victor Cruz, Michael Clayton, Braylon Edwards and Mike Williams.

Which one of those guys averaged 117yds over a season? Or surpassed 1600yds?

TIA

 

[Concept Coop]

Which one of those guys averaged 117yds over a season? Or surpassed 1600yds?TIA

My point wasn't to suggest that they met your single, arbitrary, cherry-picked stat. My point was that--while early production is a very good sign--it is not always improved upon. Or maintained, even. And certainly not something that should be used to link a player to Jerry Rice.

 

[Soulfly3]

Which one of those guys averaged 117yds over a season? Or surpassed 1600yds?

TIA

My point wasn't to suggest that they met your single, arbitrary, cherry-picked stat. My point was that--while early production is a very good sign--it is not always improved upon. Or maintained, even. And certainly not something that should be used to link a player to Jerry Rice.

Cherry picked stat?

What the hell else do you want to compare when discussing WRs? Yards, TDs, targets, catches.... That's what WRs are

And Gordon is a monster in all of them.

 

[JFS171]

Look regardless of talent or situation, this kid is one slip-up away from a year on the sidelines. I'm not taking that risk with such an expensive asset.

Argue back and forth about the rest of it - I wouldn't worry about that stuff if I owned him, which his owners in this thread are clearly not worried about. I've yet to see one person address the inherent risk with his status in the NFL Testing protocol, much less sufficiently enough to change my mind on his value in dynasty.

 

[Concept Coop]

Cruz (11): 14 games: 131 targets: 82/1536/9

Gordon(13): 14 games: 159 targets: 87/1650/9

Per target:

Cruz: 0.62/11.72/0.68

Gordon: 0.54/10.37/.056

 

[RBM]

Cruz (11): 14 games: 131 targets: 82/1536/9

Gordon(13): 14 games: 159 targets: 87/1650/9

Per target:

Cruz: 0.62/11.72/0.68

Gordon: 0.54/10.37/.056

Victor Cruz? C'mon man, Cruz is a nice player but Gordon has Julio Jones measurables/potential. 6'3 220, fast, strong, soft hands. He's got special player written all over him. Very rare to possess all those traits.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I watch him every. single. sunday.

I egt insta cred right there... watching the Browns. little to nothing to cheer for... so when the O is on the field I watch Gordon CLOSELY.

Believe me when I say, he hasnt scratched the surface of his potential. When he sorts out some of his drops, gets a legit QB - his fantasy value will be top 3 certified.

Just look at how few TDs he scores in the red zone - that's on piss poor QBing.

Situation is more than the QB throwing the ball. Matt Cassel was a major plus for Dwayne Bowe. John Kitna was a major plus for Dez Bryant.

Gordon got plenty of quality, deep targets in Cleveland. Put him a WCO and his situation is likely worse, even if the QB is much better.

This is important. Norv Turner runs the most deep-threat friendly offense in the NFL. In the last 9 years, six different Norv Turner WRs have ranked in the top 5 in yards per reception (Randy Moss, Antonio Bryant, Vincent Jackson, Malcom Floyd, Danario Alexander, and now Josh Gordon). Those 6 WRs have combined for 9 total top-5 finishes. Going back further, Turner was responsible for huge seasons from deep-threat WRs like Flipper Anderson, Michael Irvin, and Henry Ellard. If you are a talented deep threat, Norv Turner is pretty much the perfect coach for you.

 

[opensourcebeer]

Look regardless of talent or situation, this kid is one slip-up away from a year on the sidelines. I'm not taking that risk with such an expensive asset.

Argue back and forth about the rest of it - I wouldn't worry about that stuff if I owned him, which his owners in this thread are clearly not worried about. I've yet to see one person address the inherent risk with his status in the NFL Testing protocol, much less sufficiently enough to change my mind on his value in dynasty.

Good post, JFS171.

Gordon's value, IMO, is very much tied to the type of owner you are. Would you rather own an asset that has a high chance of significant suspension time, but also has a high chance of multiple years of top 10 WR production --- or would you prefer an asset that has a low chance of suspension, but also has a low chance at multiple years of top 10 WR production? I don't think there is a right answer here, but rather it comes down to owner preference.

 

[Mene]

I watch him every. single. sunday.

I egt insta cred right there... watching the Browns. little to nothing to cheer for... so when the O is on the field I watch Gordon CLOSELY.

Believe me when I say, he hasnt scratched the surface of his potential. When he sorts out some of his drops, gets a legit QB - his fantasy value will be top 3 certified.

Just look at how few TDs he scores in the red zone - that's on piss poor QBing.

Situation is more than the QB throwing the ball. Matt Cassel was a major plus for Dwayne Bowe. John Kitna was a major plus for Dez Bryant.

Gordon got plenty of quality, deep targets in Cleveland. Put him a WCO and his situation is likely worse, even if the QB is much better.

This is important. Norv Turner runs the most deep-threat friendly offense in the NFL. In the last 9 years, six different Norv Turner WRs have ranked in the top 5 in yards per reception (Randy Moss, Antonio Bryant, Vincent Jackson, Malcom Floyd, Danario Alexander, and now Josh Gordon). Those 6 WRs have combined for 9 total top-5 finishes. Going back further, Turner was responsible for huge seasons from deep-threat WRs like Flipper Anderson, Michael Irvin, and Henry Ellard. If you are a talented deep threat, Norv Turner is pretty much the perfect coach for you.

I think too many are overlooking this fact. Gordon was in a perfect situation last year, with Chud/Turner, 3 QB's who were willing to just sling it, and a lot of catch-up time. I don't want to discount what an incredible season he had, nor his value, but you are doing yourself a disservice if you do not consider ALL of the factors that contributed to the results. It's not all sunshine and roses with him, there are concerns.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Look regardless of talent or situation, this kid is one slip-up away from a year on the sidelines. I'm not taking that risk with such an expensive asset.

Argue back and forth about the rest of it - I wouldn't worry about that stuff if I owned him, which his owners in this thread are clearly not worried about. I've yet to see one person address the inherent risk with his status in the NFL Testing protocol, much less sufficiently enough to change my mind on his value in dynasty.

Good post, JFS171.Gordon's value, IMO, is very much tied to the type of owner you are. Would you rather own an asset that has a high chance of significant suspension time, but also has a high chance of multiple years of top 10 WR production --- or would you prefer an asset that has a low chance of suspension, but also has a low chance at multiple years of top 10 WR production? I don't think there is a right answer here, but rather it comes down to owner preference.

Plenty of people are currently taking him in the first half of the first round of startups / mocks, ie ranking him with guys that have a great chance of multiple top-10 seasons AND negligible suspension risk (AJG, Julio, DT, Dez). Seems like a decent number of owners are either writing off the risk entirely, or expecting him to continue putting up close to 120 yards / game. Neither seems wise to me.

 

[Soulfly3]

I'm not gonna sit here and say 'josh Gordon is not a deep threat'.

But you do realize a huge chunk of his big gains were all yards AFTER the catch. he MAKES the plays, more than the plays making him.

That's why I dont give too much credence to the Norv effect on JG

ETA: 619 yards after catch - good for #4 in the NFL

 

[solorca]

If I'm in a start-up draft, I'd probably take Calvin, Green, Dez, and Thomas above him. I'd take him over Julio carries his own risk.

With that said, I'd need one of those four players to trade him away in leagues where I own him...and I doubt an owner of any of those guys would offer it. Simply put, if I have him, he's staying on my team. If I don't have him, I'm probably not getting him (unless people undervalue him in a start-up).

 

[EBF]

Don't really buy the Norv thing because Gordon was quite good in 2012 as well. Just lacked the targets to compile nice total stats.

I don't think I would take him ahead of Calvin/Demaryius/Dez/Julio/Green because of the small track record and knucklehead issues, but he's a lot younger than some of those guys and may be just as talented. Given the risk/reward equation, I'd probably take him around WR6-8.

 

[karmarooster]

Two words that have not been written ITT: Justin Blackmon.

On a per game basis, they stack up comparably. But that's the sort of danger hanging over Gordon's head, and a legit reason to knock him down below, potentially, Julio, Jeffery, Cruz, Cobb, A Brown.

Many people will scoff at that, because based on pure talent and this year's stats, Gordon is a tier above them. But, Justin Blackmon. You're playing with fire here... if you can get borderline top-5 WR value for Gordon, I say trade him.

 

[Concept Coop]

Don't really buy the Norv thing because Gordon was quite good in 2012 as well. Just lacked the targets to compile nice total stats.

Good, yes. But "within 100 yards of the all-time record" good? I don't want to discredit his production. He earned it. He's a stud. But his baseline isn't going to be 1,800 yards a season, and I think he's less likely to reach that number as a cieling, even, without Norv.

 

[opensourcebeer]

Numbers wise, I'm not worried about Gordon.

Suspension wise, I'm worried about Gordon.

I personally wouldn't take him ahead of Mega, AJG, DT, Dez, or Julio in a start up. Owners that are doing that exceed my own personal level of risk aversion. Taking it a step further, in any league I own Gordon, I'd trade away Gordon to acquire one of the other 5 guys. But frankly, I highly doubt any Gordon owners are going to see offers like that.

 

[EBF]

Don't really buy the Norv thing because Gordon was quite good in 2012 as well. Just lacked the targets to compile nice total stats.

Good, yes. But "within 100 yards of the all-time record" good? I don't want to discredit his production. He earned it. He's a stud. But his baseline isn't going to be 1,800 yards a season, and I think he's less likely to reach that number as a cieling, even, without Norv.

That isn't exactly earth-shattering news. Nobody is going to get that many yards every season.

If he hovers around 1200-1400 every year with a decent sprinkling of TDs, he will justify a very high price.

After two seasons he looks like a pretty great talent, so for me it's just a matter of how heavily you weigh off-field issues.

 

[RBM]

I'm not gonna sit here and say 'josh Gordon is not a deep threat'.

But you do realize a huge chunk of his big gains were all yards AFTER the catch. he MAKES the plays, more than the plays making him.

That's why I dont give too much credence to the Norv effect on JG

ETA: 619 yards after catch - good for #4 in the NFL

This is true. Gordon was not catching bombs on a regular basis by any means

 

[TheGreatSpinks]

Ok, so definitely not a target "monster".

So 8th in targets with backup caliber qbs throwing to him. If that's an ideal situation to some of you...well then, ok.

Braylon Edwards went on to dominate once he got an NFL QB, right? Once he got out of that crumby situation?

When did Braylon Edwards ever end up with a legit NFL QB?

 

[Concept Coop]

If he hovers around 1200-1400 every year with a decent sprinkling of TDs, he will justify a very high price.

But that's not the conversation we're having. I think we all agree with this.

But if you're taking Gordon's 90/12-1400/8-10 over Green's 90/12-1400/8-10--that doesn't add up. I assume the people that take Gordon over Green expect Gordon to be more productive, too. That's my point when talking about his baseline production.

 

[TheGreatSpinks]

If I remember correctly, if Gordon stays clean throughout the 2014 campaign, he's no longer in the program, IE, he will no longer have two strikes on him.

 

[Soulfly3]

If he hovers around 1200-1400 every year with a decent sprinkling of TDs, he will justify a very high price.

But that's not the conversation we're having. I think we all agree with this.

But if you're taking Gordon's 90/12-1400/8-10 over Green's 90/12-1400/8-10--that doesn't add up. I assume the people that take Gordon over Green expect Gordon to be more productive, too. That's my point when talking about his baseline production.

I dont think ANYONE is arguing that Gordon's floor is 1600yds , Coop. Noone.

I can;t see his floow being under 1200yds tho, which to me, justifies a huge price, and makes him elite

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'm not gonna sit here and say 'josh Gordon is not a deep threat'.

But you do realize a huge chunk of his big gains were all yards AFTER the catch. he MAKES the plays, more than the plays making him.

That's why I dont give too much credence to the Norv effect on JG

ETA: 619 yards after catch - good for #4 in the NFL

That doesn't do anything to dispute those that are saying he's a deep threat. Where is he catching those balls before he gains the yards after the catch? Are you suggesting it's all crossing routes or bubble screens?

If he catches a ball 35 yards down field and runs another 30 yards down the sideline since he's behind the defense - is that not a "deep catch".

 

[Concept Coop]

I dont think ANYONE is arguing that Gordon's floor is 1600yds , Coop. Noone.

I can;t see his floow being under 1200yds tho, which to me, justifies a huge price, and makes him elite

I never suggested that anyone was.

He's #7 in my dyansty WR rankings, despite being riskier than the other options around him. I know he's elite, I know he's valuable, I know he's a stud. But being all those things, is different than being worth more than other players who are also all of those things, who have much less risk.

 

[Soulfly3]

I'm not gonna sit here and say 'josh Gordon is not a deep threat'.

But you do realize a huge chunk of his big gains were all yards AFTER the catch. he MAKES the plays, more than the plays making him.

That's why I dont give too much credence to the Norv effect on JG

ETA: 619 yards after catch - good for #4 in the NFL

That doesn't do anything to dispute those that are saying he's a deep threat. Where is he catching those balls before he gains the yards after the catch? Are you suggesting it's all crossing routes or bubble screens?

If he catches a ball 35 yards down field and runs another 30 yards down the sideline since he's behind the defense - is that not a "deep catch".

Im not disputing that he's deep threat - it's the first thing I said.

But if you WATCH Browns games, you'll see how often he turns 5-10yd catches into 20-30.

 

[Adam Harstad]

If I remember correctly, if Gordon stays clean throughout the 2014 campaign, he's no longer in the program, IE, he will no longer have two strikes on him.

I'm not 100% positive he's in stage 3 of the program, but based on his suspension length, I believe he is. If so, then once you're in stage 3, you're in for life.

 

[Soulfly3]

If I remember correctly, if Gordon stays clean throughout the 2014 campaign, he's no longer in the program, IE, he will no longer have two strikes on him.

I'm not 100% positive he's in stage 3 of the program, but based on his suspension length, I believe he is. If so, then once you're in stage 3, you're in for life.

From what Ive read, it's stage 2.

the "silence" and confusion over his status is puzzling though... wish it would be clarified.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Quick question: forget all about fantasy football. Where would you rank Josh Gordon's talent? Say you were general manager of the San Francisco 49ers, and you had a chance to trade Michael Crabtree for 3 years of any receiver in the NFL. Calvin would obviously be your first choice, but who would be your second? Your third? How far down the list would you have to go before you get to Josh Gordon? Again, not talking about numbers, just talking about raw NFL talent.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

I own him in most of my leagues (had him in all of them at one point, but had to trade him in one for Lynch). I get the risks, I truly do, and those risks have to be factored in. But they ARE factored in, even at his current very high value.

If there were no red flags for him, my personal feeling is that he would be the #1 dynasty option out there. End of story. The question CERTAINLY wouldn't be "Does he belong in the top 5 dynasty WRs". Without the risk, that question is a joke. In my system, the guy just had the best PPG season any receiver has had in what, the last 10 years? He just beat everything Calvin Johnson has EVER done in PPG. AT TWENTY TWO. He wasn't good, or really good, or great. He was historical. And there is not a whole lot of reason, outside of the risks we are talking about, to think that the numbers are a fluke. Do I think they will drop? Yes I do. Just like I thought Calvin Johnson TD numbers would drop in 2009 after 2008 and his yardage numbers would drop in 2013 from 2012. But that doesn't mean he wasn't the best option out there coming into this season.

So to act like his season has been comparable to other fast-starting WRs in the past and somehow say that's why he's ranked where he is right now is disingenuous. He put all of those season to shame. He is where BECAUSE of the risks, and for no other reasons. He's a giant, quick, fast, young WR with great hands who just set a bunch of records, eclipsing anything the reigning, obvious #1 choice has ever done. Let's be honest with ourselves here folks. I get it if risk-averse folks want to drop him farther than that, but overall, the risk shouldn't prevent him from being a dynasty startup 1st rounder, it's what's keeping him from being #1 overall.

 

[Soulfly3]

Quick question: forget all about fantasy football. Where would you rank Josh Gordon's talent? Say you were general manager of the San Francisco 49ers, and you had a chance to trade Michael Crabtree for 3 years of any receiver in the NFL. Calvin would obviously be your first choice, but who would be your second? Your third? How far down the list would you have to go before you get to Josh Gordon? Again, not talking about numbers, just talking about raw NFL talent.

I can't even begin to answer this.

How do you not say a guy who just had a historical season isn't near the top in NFL talent? You have to.

Guys like CJ, Dez, DT, Julio - all freaks. Hell, even Bowe had freakish ability...

So to answer... no idea. But historical seasons are auto-labels of supreme talent.

Crabtree may have better hands, but based on what I just saw, Gordon craps on him

 

[Concept Coop]

He put all of those season to shame.

Victor Cruz.

I think he'd have an argument for #1 if not for the risk. But I'd still gladly take Dez and Calvin, and Green, Julio, and Thomas are pretty close.

 

[Soulfly3]

He put all of those season to shame.

Victor Cruz.

I think he'd have an argument for #1 if not for the risk. But I'd still gladly take Dez and Calvin, and Green, Julio, and Thomas are pretty close.

Cruz played TWO MORE GAMES in the season he came close to Gordon's stats. Why do you keep bringing it up?

Let's play that game: over 16 games Gordon has 1881 yards and 10tds

still look that close to you?

 

[Holy Schneikes]

He put all of those season to shame.

Victor Cruz.

I think he'd have an argument for #1 if not for the risk. But I'd still gladly take Dez and Calvin, and Green, Julio, and Thomas are pretty close.

82 for 1536 over 16 games does not equal 87 for 1646 over 14. Maybe "put it to shame" is too strong, but it's not the same either.

 

[Concept Coop]

82 for 1536 over 16 games does not equal 87 for 1646 over 14. Maybe "put it to shame" is too strong, but it's not the same either.

Cruz's season was essentially 14 games. He only saw starter mintutes due to injury, starting week 3.

 

[Baeddel Moon]

Other than Calvin still being hands down the best receiver, I think the talent in the rest of the elite tier is very close. But the reason I like Gordon as a top 3 option is exactly because of the Browns situation. All things being equal, I'd prefer game scripts which saw my WR1's team losing by a touchdown or two pretty much every Sunday. The only thing that is consistent about the Browns is that they lose. It's early for draft talk, but the Browns are reportedly wiling to trade up for Johnny Manziel. I think that a young gunslinger qb who is willing to make mistakes is the best situation Gordon could really end up with.

And to answer Adam's question about just strict talent, not FF potential. He would be the first WR after Calvin I would try and trade for, barring a quickly closing championship window. Leading up to the supplemental he was drafted in, the comp I heard most to discuss his talent was Randy Moss. When you take his speed, ridiculous production, and the fact he didn't even missed most of his college dev time, I don't think we've seen his ceiling yet.

 

[Soulfly3]

Coop - If Im sounding like a ####, im not trying to be... just gotta type fast at work so Im flying thru responses.

 

[Concept Coop]

He put all of those season to shame.

Victor Cruz.

I think he'd have an argument for #1 if not for the risk. But I'd still gladly take Dez and Calvin, and Green, Julio, and Thomas are pretty close.

Cruz played TWO MORE GAMES in the season he came close to Gordon's stats. Why do you keep bringing it up?

Let's play that game: over 16 games Gordon has 1881 yards and 10tds

still look that close to you?

Ha ha. I guess you didn't pay attention to Cruz that season.

 

[Concept Coop]

Coop - If Im sounding like a ####, im not trying to be... just gotta type fast at work so Im flying thru responses.

No need to preface anything. I haven't been offended or taken anything personally. And I don't intend to offend either. Despite my snark.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The pro-Gordon folks seem to be underestimating Gordon's actual current market value. Saying you have him in the elite WR tier pretty much means nothing other than that you probably won't be getting him in any startups this offseason. The latest mocks have his ADP at #2... overall. Yeah, ahead of Calvin, Julio, Dez, DT, McCoy, Graham, and everyone else except AJG. How is he NOT over-rated once you account for the risks?

 

[opensourcebeer]

The pro-Gordon folks seem to be underestimating Gordon's actual current market value. Saying you have him in the elite WR tier pretty much means nothing other than that you probably won't be getting him in any startups this offseason. The latest mocks have his ADP at #2... overall. Yeah, ahead of Calvin, Julio, Dez, DT, McCoy, Graham, and everyone else except AJG. How is he NOT over-rated once you account for the risks?

Mocks pretty much eliminate any sense of risk aversion an owner might have.

 

[Baeddel Moon]

The pro-Gordon folks seem to be underestimating Gordon's actual current market value. Saying you have him in the elite WR tier pretty much means nothing other than that you probably won't be getting him in any startups this offseason. The latest mocks have his ADP at #2... overall. Yeah, ahead of Calvin, Julio, Dez, DT, McCoy, Graham, and everyone else except AJG. How is he NOT over-rated once you account for the risks?

Luckily for us, that same ADP list has a parallel for Gordon's "risk" in Justin Blackmon, WR19. And that's based on roughly 4 games of production and some college hype. If Gordon gets suspended, he'll still have fans willing to pay WR10 prices for him. Can you say the same if Julio Jones has another foot flare up? And will Dez be able to keep his head on straight now that the Cowboys are entering cap hell? As an owner, I'd rather see my player get suspended with a year to heal their body than have to spend that time rehabbing an injury to get back where they started. It just depends on what kind of risk you prefer to take on your roster.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The pro-Gordon folks seem to be underestimating Gordon's actual current market value. Saying you have him in the elite WR tier pretty much means nothing other than that you probably won't be getting him in any startups this offseason. The latest mocks have his ADP at #2... overall. Yeah, ahead of Calvin, Julio, Dez, DT, McCoy, Graham, and everyone else except AJG. How is he NOT over-rated once you account for the risks?

Luckily for us, that same ADP list has a parallel for Gordon's "risk" in Justin Blackmon, WR19. And that's based on roughly 4 games of production and some college hype. If Gordon gets suspended, he'll still have fans willing to pay WR10 prices for him. Can you say the same if Julio Jones has another foot flare up? And will Dez be able to keep his head on straight now that the Cowboys are entering cap hell? As an owner, I'd rather see my player get suspended with a year to heal their body than have to spend that time rehabbing an injury to get back where they started. It just depends on what kind of risk you prefer to take on your roster.

I couldn't disagree more strongly with this. Considering modern medicine vs recidivism rates among addicts, any injury (with the possible exception of multiple concussions) offers way less risk moving forward than a substance abuse problem.

 

[bumpman]

I have long felt the FF community fails to understand the risks of being in the final phase of the NFL's substance abuse program. As far as I know, there is no precedent for a player coming back from a year-long or indefinite substance abuse suspension and succeeding. I have been burned multiple times in the twenty years I have been playing FF. Perhaps there just hasn't been a recent enough example for folks to understand that when you get into that last phase, it is really hard to succeed. I would never spend a first round pick in a dynasty startup on a guy in the last phase. I realize there is some ambiguity about whether Gordon is in that phase, but there is none when it comes to Blackmon and I still see folks rating him highly. I wouldn't touch Blackmon in the first three rounds of a dynasty startup.

 

[Adam Harstad]

The pro-Gordon folks seem to be underestimating Gordon's actual current market value. Saying you have him in the elite WR tier pretty much means nothing other than that you probably won't be getting him in any startups this offseason. The latest mocks have his ADP at #2... overall. Yeah, ahead of Calvin, Julio, Dez, DT, McCoy, Graham, and everyone else except AJG. How is he NOT over-rated once you account for the risks?

Luckily for us, that same ADP list has a parallel for Gordon's "risk" in Justin Blackmon, WR19. And that's based on roughly 4 games of production and some college hype. If Gordon gets suspended, he'll still have fans willing to pay WR10 prices for him. Can you say the same if Julio Jones has another foot flare up? And will Dez be able to keep his head on straight now that the Cowboys are entering cap hell? As an owner, I'd rather see my player get suspended with a year to heal their body than have to spend that time rehabbing an injury to get back where they started. It just depends on what kind of risk you prefer to take on your roster.

I have a feeling Blackmon's ADP is in for a course correction in the next few rounds of mocks. Blackmon's ADP was higher in the most recent batch than it was last offseason, which means Blackmon got his third strike, earned a year-long vacation, and saw his ADP go up as a result. Which makes no sense, of course, so I'm skeptical that it will stick over a larger sample.

 

[Soulfly3]

Basically, you go with your gut.

Noone is going to change anyone's mind here. If you think Dez is no1, that's where you're gonna sit. DT, same...

Me, I rank them this way:

Gordon

Demariyus

Dez

Green

Calvin (only due to age)

julio

That's with my eyes... my gut... the research. Ill stick to it unless someone tangible changes it. not an opinion. Likely everyone here is the same also