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[DYNASTY] RIchardson vs. Martin (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter lbouchard
- Start date
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Talent over situation; Richardson.
EBF
Footballguy
It's pretty close for me. They're probably my #1 and #2 dynasty RBs right now.
I'd probably still favor Trent despite his struggles this year, but Martin has closed the gap. He has had a much better rookie year, albeit on a better team without the injury problems that have plagued Richardson.
The bottom line for me is that it's kind of like the Julio/Green debate from a year ago. You can make a good case for why one is better than the other, but ultimately you can't go wrong with either. These are probably the best dynasty RBs to have right now.
I'd probably still favor Trent despite his struggles this year, but Martin has closed the gap. He has had a much better rookie year, albeit on a better team without the injury problems that have plagued Richardson.
The bottom line for me is that it's kind of like the Julio/Green debate from a year ago. You can make a good case for why one is better than the other, but ultimately you can't go wrong with either. These are probably the best dynasty RBs to have right now.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I can see someone taking the safe situation, but is there argument for Martion over Richardson, as far as talent goes? At least Julio is bigger, stronger, faster, and jumps higher than Green.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Ability to stay healthy is a talent, and Richardson has been dinged most of the year, and his production has suffered because of it. Just being devil's advocate though.Julio's situation was also slightly preferable to Green's, just as Martin's is (slightly).
EBF
Footballguy
Sure, he's having a vastly superior rookie year. More yards. More YPC. More big plays. Martin is having a top 5 overall RB season in the league right now. He's basically already playing at the level Trent's owners hope he can someday reach.
jurb26
Footballguy
I'm a Martin owner and I still prefer Richardson, slightly. I'd trade Martin for Richardson straight up. Though I doubt the other owner would do it. It'd be hard to press me go give up another player in the deal because the gap is so thin.
It's worth noting that TB had their Oline decimated this year. Yes, TB was still the better situation but I think Martin has not come close to his ceiling yet.
IMO both of these guys are top 5 RBs in dynasty.
It's worth noting that TB had their Oline decimated this year. Yes, TB was still the better situation but I think Martin has not come close to his ceiling yet.
IMO both of these guys are top 5 RBs in dynasty.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
A bit of hyperbole here. Of course Richardson owners hope he soon plays in an offense that can punish teams for loading the box. But a top 5 season, based largely on a couple games against very bad defenses, is not what I see as Richardson's ceiling, if that's what you imply. Martin is a great situaiton; Richardson is a great player.
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GunslingerEnder
Footballguy
Richardson is a bit more consistant but both are going to lead the lucky dynasty owners for quite a few years
EBF
Footballguy
Puh-leeze. You are a certified Martin hater. You were one of the people saying how bad he was early in the season, so now you're viewing everything he does through the lens of someone who wants to believe that he's an average player. The objective facts tell a different story:- Martin was a first round pick.- He ranks top 5 in the NFL in rushing yards.- He ranks among the top 5 NFL RBs in big plays (20+ yards). - His YPC average of 4.6 ranks 7th among the 17 NFL RBs with 200+ carries this season. That's higher than McCoy, Foster, and Rice. - He leads all NFL RBs in yards per catch.He is having one of the top 3 rookie seasons by a RB in the past decade. Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson are the only guys who clearly had better rookie years. That's pretty good company. Martin is doing great. Anyone looking at his numbers objectively would agree with that. You're just really biased about this player, so you're incapable of giving him due credit. Attributing his success to weak opponents and a favorable system is obviously just a way of confirming your incorrect evaluation of his abilities. The Bucs are an average team missing key players on the OL. Hardly this awesome situation you make it out to be. As for his talent level, remember that Martin was drafted higher than Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, MJD, LeSean McCoy, and Arian Foster. A lot of people think that that those guys are elite talents. Why? Because they play at an elite level in the NFL. And that's exactly what Martin is doing. He's having a Pro Bowl caliber season. So no, it's not hyperbole to say that Martin is having the kind of year Richardson can only hope to have. I like Richardson as much as anyone and I've been going to bat for him for years. I still think he has a great future and I wouldn't trade him for many (if any) dynasty RBs, but he's been pretty bad this season. His 3.5 YPC average is the lowest of any RB with 200+ carries and a full yard worse than Martin's 4.6. That right there is plenty of ammunition to argue that Martin is the better talent.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Richardson
Am a Martin owner. Don't agree that Richardson's upside is what Martin's doing either.
Am a Martin owner. Don't agree that Richardson's upside is what Martin's doing either.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
No interest in getting in personal debates about titles like "hater".Doug Martin has a 4.02 YPC outside of the Raider game. Think about that; his per touch production is greatly skewed by one game. What value do you we place in that game, when 182 of his yards came on plays in which every top RB would have scored, given the opportunity? Honest question. We don't throw it out, but when talking about how talented a player is, and when using stats to justify our opinions, it needs some weight. The 3 longest runs of his season came in that one game. 40% of his rushing TDs came in that one game. There isn't a top RB whose production takes that much of a hit by removing one game.
Doug Martin has had a good season with 3 great games against horrible defenses.
I don't think he is a top 7 RB in the NFL, in terms of talent. Just my opinion, and if I weren't me, I wouldn't put stock it. Label as you see fit.
ETA: 14% of his rushing yardage and 30% of his rushing TDs are direct result of three busted defensive plays.
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EBF
Footballguy
Take out the Raider game and he's still having a much better season than Richardson.
Moot point really. The "if you remove these games" argument is always a weak one. If you removed the best game of the season for every player in the league, the standard of what constitutes good production would shift dramatically.
It just happens to be a convenient argument because Martin had one of the most freakishly awesome games of any RB this season. And no, not every back in the league would've taken all of those carries to the house. That's just another example of you seeking to give Martin the minimum amount of credit at every turn.
Moot point really. The "if you remove these games" argument is always a weak one. If you removed the best game of the season for every player in the league, the standard of what constitutes good production would shift dramatically.
It just happens to be a convenient argument because Martin had one of the most freakishly awesome games of any RB this season. And no, not every back in the league would've taken all of those carries to the house. That's just another example of you seeking to give Martin the minimum amount of credit at every turn.
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mikel0254
Footballguy
This tread should be renamed "Richardson Owners vs Martin Owners...who can pimp their toy more"?
These guys are so close in dynasty it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Richardson finish over Martin one year and Martin finish over Richardson the next...and so on for the next 5 years. 1A and 1B for the young backs.
These guys are so close in dynasty it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Richardson finish over Martin one year and Martin finish over Richardson the next...and so on for the next 5 years. 1A and 1B for the young backs.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Martin had a better season due to health and situation.The only thing freaky about the Raider game is the fact that the Raiders defense busted so badly, so often. And it's not about finding reasons to adjust Martin's production dramaticaly; it's simply about context. I'm not "removing the best game(s)" for any reason other than to provide context. The Raider defense, on 3 plays, turned Martin's season from good, to great. And Martin did nothing special on any of the 3.
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EBF
Footballguy
You keep talking about Tampa as if it's a great situation. They have a couple good receivers and a decent quarterback, but this is not the Packers or Patriots we're talking about. And their OL has been decimated by injuries to their two best players. They are still a better team than the Browns, but not 1.1 YPC better. Nevermind the fact that Martin's clean bill of health and Richardson's injury problems might be legit reasons to adjust their long term outlook. Context is just your word for seeing what you want to see. When the topic is Mark Ingram, you bend over backwards to find anything that supports your optimism. When the topic is Doug Martin, you bend over backwards to find anything that supports your pessimism. That's not analysis. It's just confirmation bias in action. The way you describe Martin's game against the Raiders is a perfect example. You can't ever admit that he made a good play. If he does anything good, it's only because the defense was bad. In reality, an objective person can watch that game and probably realize that it's a combination of both factors. Yes, the Raiders are terrible, but on every one of Martin's long TD runs there was at least one defender who had a chance to stop him and failed. His speed, cutting ability, and power played a role in all of those runs. His highlight reel from this year is littered with a lot of great plays:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIw6WfOB59kThis is not really rocket science. This guy was a first round pick. He's having one of the top 3 seasons by a rookie RB in the past decade. He's got a healthy YPC on a mediocre team. He's been a dynamic weapon in the passing game. He has more big plays as a runner and receiver than almost any RB in the league. He's a viable candidate at the Pro Bowl. To act like he's just some ordinary player capitalizing on a favorable situation is a bit misguided. I don't rate him on par with a guy like Peterson or CJ from a talent standpoint, but there's no reason why he can't be something like Rice/Foster/Forte/Lynch. If you could get one of those guys at 23 with most of his prime ahead of him, the value would be immense. I feel the same way about Richardson, but that's more based on what he might become than what he's been so far. Martin has undoubtedly had the better rookie year, and by a pretty wide margin.
Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
Im with you 100%.I have both but prefer Martin as he is more consistent. Richardson has injury issues and I dont want to wait around for him to have the magical unijured year when he puts it all together.Richardson ypc is ugly and he obviously is very talented but so was Jermichael Finley or so we thought. What im saying here is it's the music that counts, not the hype. EC
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't understand why you need to suggest (or who you're trying to convince) that my opinion is not genuine. Don't agree with it - fine. But at least give me the respect to assume that I call it as I see it. The reason I talk highly about Ingram, is (here comes my magic word again) context. I think both players are similar in talent. But Ingram is often talked about as though he is less talented than I think he is, and the opposite is true for Doug Martin. I'd gladly trade Ingram for Martin every single place that I own him. In fact, take a look at the Ingram HOF thread - I was blasted for calling Ingram just a good RB prospect in a weak class, all while you were pimiping him as your number 1 rookie, I believe. If next year people talked about Martin the way they do Ingram, I'd defend my opinion of him, which would then be higher than most. The Tampa Bay situation is very ideal. Just look at Martin's usage rates and compare it to just about any other situation in the NFL. On top of that, they have, on paper, one of the 5 most dangerous WRs in the NFL, a solid #2, and, on paper, a good QB. I think Martin is a good player, and a top 5 dynasty option. I just don't think he is the elite talent that you do. And that's okay; if I'm wrong, it won't be the first time, or the last.
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Invictus~Bronte
Footballguy
I take Martin from a talent, style, situation and value hands down. This was one of the debates I greatly enjoyed after saying the same all spring and summer leading to the season, Martin over Trich.
I know people will say TR isn't healthy but that was part of the problem and point of taking Martin over him. TR entered as damaged goods with two knee scopes and he's finishing his first season with not a bang, but whimper.
His style of running lends itself to him getting beaten upon weekly, he's not particularly elusive or quick, and lacks the long speed that Martin has, which isn't world class either. TR could never make those long runs Martin broke off this year. If TR wasn't getting the the numerous GL opportunities he's enjoyed lately his season would be a huge disappointment. Thankfully for his owners they employ him so much as a pass catcher as well. The Browns will be going through another regime change, possibly another QB change in a tougher division. I think what we're seeing of TR is pretty indicative of what you will continue to see. A solid, tough runner who seeks contact that will be worn and beaten down by years end with little big play explosive ability.
Martin, though his skills don't leap off the field offers better short and long range quicks, more elusive and doesn't have the knee issues that TR brought with him.
I know people will say TR isn't healthy but that was part of the problem and point of taking Martin over him. TR entered as damaged goods with two knee scopes and he's finishing his first season with not a bang, but whimper.
His style of running lends itself to him getting beaten upon weekly, he's not particularly elusive or quick, and lacks the long speed that Martin has, which isn't world class either. TR could never make those long runs Martin broke off this year. If TR wasn't getting the the numerous GL opportunities he's enjoyed lately his season would be a huge disappointment. Thankfully for his owners they employ him so much as a pass catcher as well. The Browns will be going through another regime change, possibly another QB change in a tougher division. I think what we're seeing of TR is pretty indicative of what you will continue to see. A solid, tough runner who seeks contact that will be worn and beaten down by years end with little big play explosive ability.
Martin, though his skills don't leap off the field offers better short and long range quicks, more elusive and doesn't have the knee issues that TR brought with him.
You act like he's getting injured at a Ryan Mathews rate. It's way too soon to be declaring him injury prone on the basis of two minor injuries in one year. Anyone see the Sam Bowie story last night on espnu? When Michael Jordan broke his foot his rookie year, people were lauding the trailblazers for picking Bowie over him, then Bowie went onto have 3 tibia fractures after that.
EBF
Footballguy
An ideal situation would be getting a lot of touches on a great offense. Something like Faulk on the Rams or Edge on the Colts. Martin is getting the touches, but the offense around him is just average. So the quality of touches isn't really ideal. Only the volume. The thing about opportunity is that talent, to some extent, creates opportunity. Part of the reason why Calvin Johnson is leading the NFL in receiving yards is because he's leading the NFL in targets. Part of the reason why he's leading the NFL in targets is because he's a great player. And I think maybe you're missing that with Martin to some extent. It isn't by accident that he gets a lot of touches. It's a direct result of his ability. He's a three down back who can make plays with speed, quickness, and power as a runner and receiver. Those guys are rare. Look at a guy like Ray Rice over the last few years. Would you say that he was just a product of the situation? That would be selling him short. He definitely benefited from receiving a high number of carries and touches, but the reason why he got those touches in the first place is because of his ability. To suggest that he's just an ordinary player benefiting from his opportunity would be missing the point, just like it is with Martin. And Martin is just a rookie. There haven't been that many rookie RBs who have been able to step in, immediately win the job, and immediately start logging pro bowl numbers. He probably deserves a little bit of credit for that.
Elite is a relative word. I don't think Martin is the next HoF back like Peterson or Tomlinson. On the other hand, I don't think he's any less talented than guys like Ray Rice, Arian Foster, Matt Forte, and Marshawn Lynch. They're all a little bit different in style, but they're similar in the sense that they're starting caliber three down backs with great versatility. These guys are absolute gold in FF and that's how I feel about Martin. If all he does over the rest of his prime is duplicate his rookie season, he will be immensely valuable. And I don't think that's beyond his reach, as he's poised to be a workhorse starter in the NFL indefinitely.
Own them both.... With Peterson as well... If I have to give one, it would be Martin.... The question is with the impending changes forthcoming in Cleveland... Will they focus on Trent, or will he be taken for granted, as they attempt to fortify the rest of the team.... Own and like josh Gordon too.... Hope they don't stagnate.
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
I don't really have an opinion on Richardson vs Martin, but just to provide some o-line analysis...
Pro Football Focus put out o-line rankings after 10 weeks of this season(not ranking them going forward, just ranking how they played in weeks 1-10):
Tampa: 18th overall, 17th in pass blocking, 15th in run blocking, 17th in penalties committed
Cleveland: 9th overall, 5th in pass blocking, 13th in run blocking, 19th in penalties committed
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/13/offensive-line-rankings-week-10-update/
Pro Football Focus put out o-line rankings after 10 weeks of this season(not ranking them going forward, just ranking how they played in weeks 1-10):
Tampa: 18th overall, 17th in pass blocking, 15th in run blocking, 17th in penalties committed
Cleveland: 9th overall, 5th in pass blocking, 13th in run blocking, 19th in penalties committed
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/13/offensive-line-rankings-week-10-update/
Football Outsiders ranks Tampa's O-Line as 11th and Cleveland's as 21st. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol
bengalbuck
Footballguy
I'm surprised nobody has mentioned age yet. Doug Martin turns 24 in a few weeks. Trent Richardson doesn't turn 22 until July.
With two guys who are pretty close, 2.5 years age difference is pretty big deal.
For example, Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson are also 2.5 years apart and that age difference has a pretty huge impact upon their perceived values.
With two guys who are pretty close, 2.5 years age difference is pretty big deal.
For example, Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson are also 2.5 years apart and that age difference has a pretty huge impact upon their perceived values.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Doug Martin
Warrior
Footballguy
'bigger, stronger, faster and jumps higher' has translated to less production and less value.How has 'bigger, stronger, faster and jumps higher' worked out for Vernon Davis so far this season?Jerry Rice wasn't really big, strong, fast, or a high jumper.
geoff8695
Footballguy
Well, I guess that depends on whether you consider knee injuries and multiple scopes by age 21 a "skill". Trich certainly does that better than the 23 yr old Martin as well...Let me pose a question to anyone who thinks it's "not a close call": 5 yrs ago would you have also told us that McFadden was better than Ray Rice and it was "not a close call"?Suffice it to say, I would have to disagree with those who tell me this is a no brainer.'moderated said:
geoff8695
Footballguy
I don't buy this either - Martin's situation is pretty decent. I believe Martin would perform better than T-Rich has in Cleveland this season. However, injuries have everything to do with that. It's tough to enter an NFL season as a rookie NFL RB having just scoped your knee for the second time before ever even taking an NFL hit. IF T-Rich were 100% healthy and had been drafted by TB, then IMO he would have accomplished just as much if not more than Martin has this season.The problem is projecting them moving forward. TB's situation looks better, Richardson's ability to stay healthy has been cast in some doubt, and the biggest negative I can come up with where Martin's concerned is that he will be 24 next season vs 22 for Richardson. The fact that he already is performing as a top 5 RB as a rookie through basically a full season makes me favor Martin slightly at this point in time, but Richardson's superior athleticism and age are potential advantages that make this a close call IMO. Impossible to say definitively which one is the better choice over the long haul...
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Xue
Footballguy
If Richardson had Martin's schedule, he'd be putting up Martin's numbers.
DoubleG
Footballguy
Let's pretend we're in a dynasty league together...You own Martin, I own TRich. Would you trade me Martin straight up for TRich right now? Of course you would. The other way around? Let me put it this way...if you offered Martin for Trent, I'd hit "decline" faster than Charles Tillman can punch a ball out.I don't buy this either - Martin's situation is pretty decent. I believe Martin would perform better than T-Rich has in Cleveland this season. However, injuries have everything to do with that. It's tough to enter an NFL season as a rookie NFL RB having just scoped your knee for the second time before ever even taking an NFL hit. IF T-Rich were 100% healthy and had been drafted by TB, then IMO he would have accomplished just as much if not more than Martin has this season.The problem is projecting them moving forward. TB's situation looks better, Richardson's ability to stay healthy has been cast in some doubt, and the biggest negative I can come up with where Martin's concerned is that he will be 24 next season vs 22 for Richardson. The fact that he already is performing as a top 5 RB as a rookie through basically a full season makes me favor Martin slightly at this point in time, but Richardson's superior athleticism and age are potential advantages that make this a close call IMO. Impossible to say definitively which one is the better choice over the long haul...
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I am a Martin owner, who actually took Martin over TRich in the draft. I've watched both, quite a bit in fact, and I still would make that pick, and would not trade Martin for TRich. I've heard every argument for TRich's talent, Martin's situation, etc.. etc... but I really think the two are extremely close in potential, or upside, or talent, or whichever buzzword you prefer.
Martin's season is not just attributable to a couple good games, he's had 8 games of 100+ yfs, and another at 98yds, and we still have 2 to go for him. You can do all statistical manipulating you want, eliminate the Oakland game, eliminate this big play, or that one, but it's all still going to add up to a VERY good season by a RB. Someone mentioned remove the Oakland game and his YPC falls to 4.02, but that is still 0.55 BETTER than TRich. As far as situation, while overall Tampa is obviously farther ahead offensively than Cleveland, losing your 2 starting G's cannot make the situation as ideal as it's portrayed. There is certainly reason to believe this situation will improve dramatically next year assuming those 2 return healthy.
I'm not trying to sell Richardson short, he's a very good back in his own right. I just don't see him as vastly superior in any way to Martin. Another thing about TRich, as someone mentioned earlier, I kinda think his running style might be partially responsible for the injury prone monicker he is flirting with. There were a number of big hits I saw him take this year that were avoidable, but he refused to go down, or chose to attempt to run over/through someone rather than evade them. This will lead to him playing banged up quite a bit. Of course, over time, he should learn better how to avoid taking so much pounding.
I'll bet owners of both will be quite happy for the next few years. I'll also confidently bet that if we check back in say 3, 4 years... the Martin owners will be a little happier.
Martin's season is not just attributable to a couple good games, he's had 8 games of 100+ yfs, and another at 98yds, and we still have 2 to go for him. You can do all statistical manipulating you want, eliminate the Oakland game, eliminate this big play, or that one, but it's all still going to add up to a VERY good season by a RB. Someone mentioned remove the Oakland game and his YPC falls to 4.02, but that is still 0.55 BETTER than TRich. As far as situation, while overall Tampa is obviously farther ahead offensively than Cleveland, losing your 2 starting G's cannot make the situation as ideal as it's portrayed. There is certainly reason to believe this situation will improve dramatically next year assuming those 2 return healthy.
I'm not trying to sell Richardson short, he's a very good back in his own right. I just don't see him as vastly superior in any way to Martin. Another thing about TRich, as someone mentioned earlier, I kinda think his running style might be partially responsible for the injury prone monicker he is flirting with. There were a number of big hits I saw him take this year that were avoidable, but he refused to go down, or chose to attempt to run over/through someone rather than evade them. This will lead to him playing banged up quite a bit. Of course, over time, he should learn better how to avoid taking so much pounding.
I'll bet owners of both will be quite happy for the next few years. I'll also confidently bet that if we check back in say 3, 4 years... the Martin owners will be a little happier.
geoff8695
Footballguy
As I stated earlier this is a close call; the age disparity is the ONLY reason I would consider it, but the actual results on the field and the injury history make it an easier decision for me in the end. I favor Martin, but it's close...Martin will likely finish this season somewhere between RB2 and RB5 and that's despite getting off to a slow start that had some comparing him to Mark Ingram just a couple months ago. Relative to other NFL RBs (taking Richardson out of the equation), Martin is currently an outstanding young bellcow RB putting up better numbers than any RB not named Adrian Peterson or Arian Foster.Let's pretend we're in a dynasty league together...You own Martin, I own TRich. Would you trade me Martin straight up for TRich right now? Of course you would. The other way around? Let me put it this way...if you offered Martin for Trent, I'd hit "decline" faster than Charles Tillman can punch a ball out.I don't buy this either - Martin's situation is pretty decent. I believe Martin would perform better than T-Rich has in Cleveland this season. However, injuries have everything to do with that. It's tough to enter an NFL season as a rookie NFL RB having just scoped your knee for the second time before ever even taking an NFL hit. IF T-Rich were 100% healthy and had been drafted by TB, then IMO he would have accomplished just as much if not more than Martin has this season.
The problem is projecting them moving forward. TB's situation looks better, Richardson's ability to stay healthy has been cast in some doubt, and the biggest negative I can come up with where Martin's concerned is that he will be 24 next season vs 22 for Richardson. The fact that he already is performing as a top 5 RB as a rookie through basically a full season makes me favor Martin slightly at this point in time, but Richardson's superior athleticism and age are potential advantages that make this a close call IMO. Impossible to say definitively which one is the better choice over the long haul...
Why would I want to give that up for a chance that Richardson might do something similar and/or because of age might get one or two more chances to do so than Martin?
Richardson's athleticism and age are undeniable, but so is his injury risk - and his situation isn't as sweet as Martin's IMO. That's more than enough for me to honestly say I wouldn't consider offering that trade to you, and even if you offered it to me - I would be the one declining, my brohan...
devouredbychaos
Footballguy
I'd rather have AlfMo than either Martin OR TRich. 
He's been more consistent than both of them, whether you want to believe it or not. Call me crazy but I'd trade either one of them for AlfMo in my dynasty league.
He's been more consistent than both of them, whether you want to believe it or not. Call me crazy but I'd trade either one of them for AlfMo in my dynasty league.
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Andrew74
Footballguy
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