InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Wow, that's a drastic overpay. Good on you for getting that value for Saquon. I don't think I'd pay 2 firsts and 2 seconds for any RB.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
heckmanm
Footballguy
Well being able to start up to 4 RBs probably skews things since a "starting" RB may have a higher floor than a WR where a NFL team has 2-3 "starting" WRs.
heckmanm said:
This plus the non-PPR really does skew towards RB value, though good WR value can be mined, it's just a bit more difficult as you can't really get value from the types of WRs (or RBs) that get a decent number of receptions though lower yardage, which can be leveraged in PPR.
But even though Barkley is still young, I was in a spot where I either tried to build around him and some of my other assets, or take that deal as the basis for trying to do an accelerated rebuild. I chose the later option and have made some other deals based on that thinking.
Atomic Punk
Footballguy
Offered Aiyuk and Knox and was turned down. Also would have swapped Knox for my 1.10 but no interest despite Barkley being on his trade bait. Many seem to still value him at his price from 1-2 years ago.
Jayded
Footballguy
What can one expect as a return for CMC right now?
Traded for him last year hoping 2020 was a fluke. Feels like he’ll win me the league or yank me again. With our devy draft starting today, I’m curious to put him on the trade block but not sure what value is realistic vs holding and hoping he returns to health and form.
Traded for him last year hoping 2020 was a fluke. Feels like he’ll win me the league or yank me again. With our devy draft starting today, I’m curious to put him on the trade block but not sure what value is realistic vs holding and hoping he returns to health and form.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Wrong thread
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
I believe injuries are something no one can predict, especially those that take a player out for an extended time due to injuries like an ACL tear, Lisfranc, Achilles tear, severe ankle or shoulder injuries etc. etc.. I do believe there are players that don't like to play when they are "nicked", but obviously CMC doesn't fall in that category. Also, some players are more susceptible to soft tissue injuries, such as hamstring tears and they are more predictable. CMC has had some bad luck the last couple of years, so maybe he will have some good luck this year.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think the issue with CMc and his injuries is the insane volume he gets - I think it wears him down and makes him more susceptible to being beat up. The Panthers would be smart to work Chubb and/or Foreman into the rotation to take some of the tough carries away from CMc.JohnnyU said:
I feel like they brought in D’onta to do just that, but time will tell. I understand CMC is absolutely electric and you don’t want to take him off the field, but hopefully they’ve learned from the last two years.
Chubba really wasn’t all that good last year. I feel like Foreman will end up being the guy to own behind CMC.
Jayded
Footballguy
I agree with all of you above. I'm still curious - trading CMC nets you what at this point? Fewer carries might mean fewer points than those few electric years, but having him on the field is still worth far more than he's been the past two years.
What pick or picks and players can you expect for him at this point? Is he a straight up CMC for Hall/Walker III or does he still hold more value? Does he have the same value as a guy like Etienne? Would he be worth the 1.01 in a draft this year or what pick(s) would he be worth?
What pick or picks and players can you expect for him at this point? Is he a straight up CMC for Hall/Walker III or does he still hold more value? Does he have the same value as a guy like Etienne? Would he be worth the 1.01 in a draft this year or what pick(s) would he be worth?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
In startup drafts I have seen CMC consistently going in the 1st round, usually around the mid-1st. Sometimes before Breece, sometimes after.
So in terms of startup value he is still way more valuable than ETN and Walker
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Traded him, Mike Evans and Damien Harris for great value. Got 1.01 this year, DK Metcalf and '23 1st.
I believe McCaffrey still nets you ETN and a first... if he suffers injury this year? Probably not. People aren't worried about a guy getting 30 FPPG not being on the field all the time. The guy will still get 10 catches, 100 yards and be the lead option in the end zone. His health is the question mark and I think splitting reps is probably better for him.
titusbramble
Footballguy
I'm not an Etienne believer but I would smash the accept for CMC at this stage for that (assuming a 2023 first)
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
I agree - it really depends on the team. I was in a situation where I had guys like Zeke, Gibson, Fournette and Najee Harris - I could afford to get out from under CMC and get younger and hopefully healthier, but everything is situational. I'm not sure I would do CMC for ETN and a projected later 2023 first and might need more picks, but it is a starting point. Simply asking if CMC is valued around Walker/Hall/ETN, I would say he is way above them. Regardless of injury concerns, the dude was the best player in fantasy a couple years ago. I would consider trading CMC for Hall and ETN depending on my roster makeup.
Personally, I'm only high on Breece Hall of the 3 backs mentioned and I would look to get a guy like Josh Jacobs + picks over Walker/ETN.
wlwiles
Footballguy
I have Dak and Herbert in a 1QB and for that price I'd let you choose which one you wanted, and might have given you both if you asked. That other owner must be a Bolts or Ducks fan
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Can I offer you LaDainian Tomlinson? Guy was the top player in football a few years ago as well.
Don't mean to single you out, but I really don't understand the love for a running back whose been injured the majority of the past two years. I can't think of a single guy who went through a two year period of injuries like his and came back at even 90% of the same fantasy production.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
I mean the LT analogy is a stretch, but great attention grabber and comedic transitioning. You don't think he can be 90% of his best? What about 80% or 70% because even at 70% he is still a top 8 RB in fantasy. His issue is health and I fully expect them to limit his snaps, but I don't see why he can't bottom out at 250 points in limited time. His ceiling? Best RB in the league. I understand if you aren't a gambling man, but he's a hard guy to value. If he remains healthy... he is a league winning RB, Walker & ETN - that remains to be seen.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Thank you for the compliment. And no, I don't trust him to remain healthy enough to play enough games to get close to his fantasy prime, even with a limited snap count. Worse there's a chance of multiple weeks where he starts and is incapable of finishing due to injury, which I find to be one of the biggest fantasy kick in the balls because there's nothing you can do to foresee it.
His first three years must have been brutal on his body, he was the entire team for good portions of time, and he's never been a big guy. Eventually the body breaks down and his injuries have been all over, which to me says he's just breaking down from being over worked.
3quinox825
Footballguy
Who are guys that are worth mid to late 23’ 1sts?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Value is in the eye of the beholder when it comes to stuff like this.
Mid-to-late?
That’s tough. Maybe a Bateman, or Leonard Fournette type?
Aging but talented guys like ARob + a 3rd, or a Mile Evans.
Its such a strong and deep draft class that it just wouldn’t make sense to deal a premium/young asset to obtain one of those picks with the hope you can draft a…premium/young asset that isn’t yet proven.
I could see paying a Tee Higgins or Jefferson to get a Bijan or Stroud (SF) but those aren’t mid-late.
interesting question. Thanks for making me use my noodle.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
You have Tee Higgins and Jefferson in the same tier? You are high on Higgins. I think Jefferson is easily the best dynasty asset overall and would pay the 1.01 in 2023 for him. I see Higgins as more of a late 2023 but maybe I am the minority on that.Value is in the eye of the beholder when it comes to stuff like this.
Mid-to-late?
That’s tough. Maybe a Bateman, or Leonard Fournette type?
Aging but talented guys like ARob + a 3rd, or a Mile Evans.
Its such a strong and deep draft class that it just wouldn’t make sense to deal a premium/young asset to obtain one of those picks with the hope you can draft a…premium/young asset that isn’t yet proven.
I could see paying a Tee Higgins or Jefferson to get a Bijan or Stroud (SF) but those aren’t mid-late.
interesting question. Thanks for making me use my noodle.
joey
Footballguy
maybe you can get a nice Win Now vet like AJoneS or Zeke at RB, maybe an Evans or Cooper at WR.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
no, I don’t. I was using them as players that wouldn’t be in the convo unless going for 1.01. And I don’t see them as equal in that effort.
I don’t see either as attainable for a 2023 1st. If you deal Higgins for one you’re getting poor value. That was my point. Unless you’re going for the 1.01. Then those players can attain that + pieces.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
3quinox825
Footballguy
Where do you guys value 2nd and 3rd round picks of future drafts? Wasn't singletary like a 3rd round pick? I've had success selling picks for players that seem to be "trending up." For example, a 2nd next year for cole kmet and another deal for ju ju schuster or 3rd for Rashard Penny. Do you think players that seem to be on the rise are worth that?
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Singletary went in the early/mid second in my 5 leagues.
I don’t think the strategy you suggest is a bad one - trading future 2/3s for players you perceive to be on the rise - every trade has its risk/reward analysis and it’s not like 2nd and 3rd round picks don’t bust. The issue would identifying your targets and getting that right.
this is actually the best way to improve your team. Scouting NFL players that are showing they can play at the NFL level but haven't quite received the opportunity or playing time to bust out yet. Identifying those guys and getting them cheap is the best way to never have to go into full rebuild mode.
However, the trick is exactly what the good Dr. said in his post............."identifying your targets AND GETTING THAT RIGHT"
Just declined an offer of a likely mid 23 first and drake London for Akers and andrews. I’m not very high on London and both Akers and andrews will be starting for me. Thoughts?
mixon , Kamara , jones+Dillon, Akers at rb start 2-4
kittle , kelce and andrews at te. Start 1-3
I won’t be flexing a wr ever lol. Competing for the ship.
mixon , Kamara , jones+Dillon, Akers at rb start 2-4
kittle , kelce and andrews at te. Start 1-3
I won’t be flexing a wr ever lol. Competing for the ship.
joey
Footballguy
Is it a TE premium league? If so, I can understand you not wanting to break up that killer trio of Kittle, Kelce and Andrews. A MASSIVE advantage in TEP.
It used to be te premium. Now it’s ppr across the board. It’s still a massive advantage never having to against those tes. But honestly, I think I may be undervaluing London. Opinions are across the board on him. I personally had him ranked fifth among the rookie wrs this year.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
If that 2023 1st projects to be top 5 or 6 I would have done it, especially if not TE premium. Akers didn't look good when he did find the field at the end last year, but the jury is still out on him. I think getting London and one of Robinson, Boutte, JSN, Gibbs, or Evans is well worth it. If SF, add Stroud and Young to that group.
Lehigh98
Footballguy
I know that KTC has a its fans and haters but I just noticed they introduced a new tool on their site to play around with that will automatically rank the teams in your dynasty league (works with MFL so far, Sleeper to follow). Looks like there are still some things to be done and some fine tuning to be made but you can rank teams by Full Team + Picks, Players Only, Starters Only, Positions, etc. Check it out...
KTC Dynasty League Power Rankings
For example, in a couple leagues like mine with 24 or 36 teams it can give a nice quick overview of what teams may be loaded at a position you need and then may need help where you're loaded to look for potential trade partners.
KTC Dynasty League Power Rankings
For example, in a couple leagues like mine with 24 or 36 teams it can give a nice quick overview of what teams may be loaded at a position you need and then may need help where you're loaded to look for potential trade partners.
rockaction
Footballguy
Fun tool to look at. Thanks.
By the way, if anyone is wondering about anecdotal efficiency, I'm number one by far in our league by KTC's measurement for offense (I play full IDP) but I finished eleventh last year at 3-11, and it wasn't solely because of IDP. (I did have the sixth most points in the league through Week 14, I just fell a little unlucky.)
It just...it measures dynasty value, not points scored. That's where the model is lacking. Needs to hit that sweet spot
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titusbramble
Footballguy
Have been offered a couple of trades for my Kamara in PPR, where do you all rate Aaron Jones and Saquon Barkley relative to him to make a fair trade? It's borderline cash out now or die on my roster so want to get full value if I do deal
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Jones is great for a win now, but I'd think he's commanding a first or young/talented WR and I think that's too rich for me. I'd maybe pay a late '22 first for him but I wouldn't give up a '23 first.
For me, Jones' end is looming because the Packers are going to have to retool those WR's, unless they're going to waste Rodgers last years. They'll save $10million in 2023 by cutting him and have a viable back in AJ Dillon.
I'm not touching Saquon Barkley, but he's gone for some absolutely dumb amounts in this thread and I can't understand why. He is a shell of himself. I'd rather get younger by trading Kamara. I'd want an AJ Dillon, Josh Jacobs and some picks over Barkley.
I know everyone loves them some WRs but what is your cutoff number for rostering before you consider them as roster cloggers? Or does this not even enter into most manager's thoughts? I know starting requirements changes the calculus. Consider everything from start 2 with 1 flex to start 3 with 3 flex.
For example, I'm in a 14 team SF (25 roster spots) that starts 2 WR with 1 flex, I have 5 WR eligible players (4 WR plus CPatterson as RB/WR). 11 teams have at least 8 WRs rostered, with 3 in the double digits (high of 12). In another 14 team SF (25 roster + 5 taxi) start 3 with 3 flex league, I have 8 WR, 12 teams have double digits with a high of 16.
For example, I'm in a 14 team SF (25 roster spots) that starts 2 WR with 1 flex, I have 5 WR eligible players (4 WR plus CPatterson as RB/WR). 11 teams have at least 8 WRs rostered, with 3 in the double digits (high of 12). In another 14 team SF (25 roster + 5 taxi) start 3 with 3 flex league, I have 8 WR, 12 teams have double digits with a high of 16.
joey
Footballguy
Generally speaking, I carry more players at a position when I’m not as confident in my studs/starters at that spot.
higgins
Footballguy
Keep in mind the uncertainty with those RBs' next destinations. The Pack have an easy out by cutting Jones after the coming season & you already know that Barkley is going to be a FA.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
AJ Brown ranked vs Tee Higgins, Waddle, Adams, & DJ Moore.
Blick
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Wow that's a tough group of five to rank.
Three would-be alphas with competition on their own team in Waddle, Brown, and Higgins. D.J. Moore with no competition but no quarterback or touchdown prowess to speak of. Adams is pushing thirty.
That's a tough crew to rank.
How I'd want them, in order.
Higgins, Moore, Adams, Brown, Waddle
Three would-be alphas with competition on their own team in Waddle, Brown, and Higgins. D.J. Moore with no competition but no quarterback or touchdown prowess to speak of. Adams is pushing thirty.
That's a tough crew to rank.
How I'd want them, in order.
Higgins, Moore, Adams, Brown, Waddle
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
KeepTradeCut has it:
Higgins WR5, Brown WR6, Waddle WR7, Adams WR11, Moore WR15
Higgins WR5, Brown WR6, Waddle WR7, Adams WR11, Moore WR15
titusbramble
Footballguy
Kind of where I see it as well. Higgins and Brown seem like the best two with Waddle close behind, bit of a drop off to Adams with age, then Moore last (although I really don't get the whole Moore thing)
rockaction
Footballguy
Birdie048
Footballguy
I like Higgins above due to situations, but Adams is too low IMO. DJ Moore and the whole CAR Offense?
WR15 might be too high until they figure out the schemes and who is QB.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I'm not interested in aj brown anywhere near that price. Oh wow he's talented. So are the next 20 guys on the list.
Maybe Elijah Moore resumes his ridiculous pace. Maybe Courtland Sutton and Jeudy show why they were so highly regarded now that they finally have a quarterback. Maybe Rashod Bateman gets peppered with targets like Mark Andrews. Maybe AJ Brown assumes the wr1 role on a team with a good wr2 and te and pass catching back with a quarterback who doesn't throw much, and when he does he doesn't throw it very well.
All of those things are possible, but I don't think there's as huge a difference in the probabilities as there is in the prices. So for all intents and purposes, brown is just off my draft board.
Maybe Elijah Moore resumes his ridiculous pace. Maybe Courtland Sutton and Jeudy show why they were so highly regarded now that they finally have a quarterback. Maybe Rashod Bateman gets peppered with targets like Mark Andrews. Maybe AJ Brown assumes the wr1 role on a team with a good wr2 and te and pass catching back with a quarterback who doesn't throw much, and when he does he doesn't throw it very well.
All of those things are possible, but I don't think there's as huge a difference in the probabilities as there is in the prices. So for all intents and purposes, brown is just off my draft board.
