thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Definitely ahead of Desean and Marshall. Austin is another close one.
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Fair market value for Hakeem Nicks? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ppierce
- Start date
CrossEyed
Footballguy
I don't think it's all that crazy. He's 22 years old. AJ and Roddy are 29, Fitz is 27. What's a potential additional 5-7 years of production worth?
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
Agreed, the hype is a little out of control, and that is from a Nicks owner in multiple leagues. I would deal him straight up right now for AJ, CJ, Fitz, Austin, and White. Fitz maybe not if my team was a real contender but I still prefer all those guys to Nicks. I think Dez ends up being better as well.
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
What will you be doing 5-7 years from now and will your league still be running? That is a LONG time when talking about fantasy football. Some good leagues last that long, lots of them don't make it that far. But I agree thats a valuable point, if you think you will still be playing at that point.
CrossEyed
Footballguy
Isn't a dynasty league designed to last a long time?Regardless, you would also expect that a 22 year old has a greater potential to get even better.
Based on his production this year, I wouldn't trade Nicks for anyone other than AJ, Roddy, or Calvin in a dynasty league. I might argue that Fitz will have a better overall career from here on, but I'm trying to win a league right now. I'd say that Nicks value in dynasty is the same as his value in a redraft . . . very high.
Trade Nicks or guess wrong every week...
Chimp Magnet
Footballguy
Thank your lucky stars. Period.
golfguy
Footballguy
crosseyed,
yes it is bud. 29 for a wr is not old. reggie wayne, moss, etc have all continued to produce at elite levels past this age. so those guys have 5-6 solid years left, and are all proven commodities on the long haul. as much as i like nicks and i do, he has also been nicked up in his first 2 seasons. he has managed to play though it, but you never know how that will last. and the giants as noted previously are very hot and cold offensively. we'll see. i'm not saying he isn't top 10, but top 3 because of a few great weeks is overboard.
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
Yes it is. I joined a league this offseason run by someone from this board and it didn't even make it through a few weeks of the season before folding. As long as you trust your league to be around, then by all means consider that.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Same thing as when you have Nicks, White and DJax. Try to trade one or just enjoy the depth.
You can almost use the same logic against Austin. What Nicks has done in his first year and a half is pretty amazing and while some people are going overboard, there's definitely reason to believe he'll continue to be an elite WR.
The point is he never said he had to wait 5-8 years for elite production. He's getting it now. And it should continue for a long time. I'd rather have a 22 year old WR putting up 1300/12 then a 29 year old WR putting up 1300/12. Regardless of how long the league will be around.
footballnerd
Footballguy
Like Mike the Situation would say "you pulled the robbery"
footballnerd
Footballguy
Package Calvin and a RB for a stud RB.
WiDDoW_MaKeR
Footballguy
Why is everyone so sure that Nicks won't score 20 TDs? I wouldn't be surprised if he scored more.
Also, why would people be surprised if Roddy White went 124/1700/12..... I think that's reasonable too. They are both having a great year, and it isn't like defenses aren't aware of them. There is no reason to believe that either of them will slow down.
Also, why would people be surprised if Roddy White went 124/1700/12..... I think that's reasonable too. They are both having a great year, and it isn't like defenses aren't aware of them. There is no reason to believe that either of them will slow down.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Pretty sure it's not just based on a few weeks, many of us thought he had stud potential before this year, even before he was drafted. He's proving us right. I still won't have him top 3, I wouldn't trade AJ, White or Fitz for him, but after that anyone is fair game.
fightingillini
Footballguy
This.Or package Calvin and a QB to get an elite QB and a lesser WR in return.Or package Calvin and your starting TE to try and get Gates.So use the depth to get an upgrade at another position depending on your needs.
In my 12-team redraft (1 PPR), I just traded Calvin/Cutler and got back Brees/Roy Williams (essentially just Brees). Had the luxury to trade Megatron for an upgrade at QB.Moving forward, the best starters for my team will now be:Brees/Gore/Best or Hillis/White/Nicks/Holmes or Wallace/Z Miller
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Hold on, I think his league awards negative 10 pts for Giant WR'sI assume anyway
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
After his 3 catch game and "injury" I was able to get him for Big Ben and Ward. The owner had Garrard and Vick as his QB's and Moss, Driver, Crabtree and Nicks before the trade.
I have those same 3 and we have to start 3 wr's. Its been fun. However, i need a #2rb behind Bradshaw. Do i dare trade one and if so who The Gore owner wants one.
rangerforme
Footballguy
I'd for sure trade one for gore in your situation. Probably Calvin if you could. Alot easier to make up #3wr out of the air than a #2rb.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Join a better league where you can start more than 2 WRs each week. Unless you really prefer 8 team, 10 man rosters.
Clifford
Footballguy
I have a similar problem in a flex league. Nicks is head and shoulders above the rest but the rest are really good too. Unfortunately I just can't get anyone in this league to look forward rather than backward so getting real value is really hard. His value should be a RB3-8 but I can't get that.I think in dynasty the top two receivers to own are Austin and Nicks, White third and Fitz and DeSean fighting for fourth. And to people talking about thinking too far in the future, the fact is that Nicks is outperforming everyone except White. White has one bad game like Nicks did and they are even. Austin now has had two awful games in a row.
Giant Wooden Badger
the Beav
Hope not. I have Steve Smith too.
Dazed and Confused
Footballguy
Sounds like my dilemma last year when I had AJ, Wayne and Welker and had only Ray Rice and could never get a good #2 RB (PPR). PT was good when healthy, but that wasn't very often. I didn't want to part with any of my big 3 wr's, so I just rode it out and won thankfully.
Sack-Religious
Footballguy
I was lucky/astute enough to grab White, Austin and Nicks in my main league.
I've also got Mike Bush, and I'm debating working on a deal with the McFadden owner that includes Nicks. Owning Bush off-sets the injury risk associated with acquiring McFadden, IMO, but I don't know if I can pull the trigger on moving Nicks.
And for the love of all that is holy people, quit calling him "Hicks."
I've also got Mike Bush, and I'm debating working on a deal with the McFadden owner that includes Nicks. Owning Bush off-sets the injury risk associated with acquiring McFadden, IMO, but I don't know if I can pull the trigger on moving Nicks.
And for the love of all that is holy people, quit calling him "Hicks."
Shutout
Footballguy
Sorry about the using H instead of N in the posts. I am usually in a hurry when posting during the daytime. Nicks, not Hicks, was meant.The reason why I stand by it as a good recommendation, not a horrible one, goes back to my original post.Its a recomendation based on suggesting to people to look at the Giants as a whole and not just the numbers of the players. For Roddy to keep up this pace is, of course, unlikely. However, for Nicks to also is just as unlikely. Do we really expect him to catch 10/100+/2Tds each week? Not likely.But the difference is that we have seen for the past few years that this is pretty much the norm for Roddy and a consistent, high producing WR is pretty danged valuable (Reggie Wayne-ish). On the other hand, as I mentioned on the earlier post, we HAVE seen this story before out of the Giants. In fact, every year for the past four years we have seen it. Jacobs was godly a few years ago. Last year, it was Steve Smith. But eventually, when all those things that have to align just so-so aren't clicking any more, the Giants don't sustain that type of production. They just don't.Re: the age of the players. Yes, age would be a huge factor if I were thinking of a 22 year old vs. a 28 year old. I wasn't speaking specifically of a dynasty or keeper, but even if I were, I think you have to think of that a little harder than what it first seems. On a team with two obvious franchise QBS, you have to weigh whether it is better to have a 22 year old with a 30 year old QB or a 28 year old with a 25 year old QB. As Fitz owners can tell you, nothing is a given once you lose your franchise QB. Just food for thought.
Shutout
Footballguy
I think I started that yesterday when I typo'ed. I was in a hurry. Someone even said they thought my post had merit until I called him Hicks. I'm sorry I mispelled his name but I doubt I'm the first person to ever misspell a player's name in the forums. I think its pretty obvious what the intent was so hopefully no one would REALLY read a post, think it makes sense, and then disregard it because of a typo. C'mon Man!!
Someone earlier made a point about how long your dynasty league might last and I think that question can make a huge difference in how you value youth. On the other hand I am in a league with friends and have several friends as backups that would quickly replace anyone that decides to leave. Due to that I feel safe assuming that my league will be around for a very long time.
With that as context I am interested in hearing other views, but here is mine. BTW I am in a 12 team ppr 2rb3wr league (more context). When valuing a WR like Nicks (I own him), I see 10+ years of top production. Some of those years top 5, some maybe even top 3, and then maybe top 10-15 when he reaches 31 or 32. That said MANY of the top wr's (wayne/moss just to name 2) continued top 5 production in their early 30's so who knows. At 32/33 he will even represent very good trade value.
Now when comparing the value of those 10+ years to a top rb (cj or ap), where I would only assume top 5 production for 5 years and then maybe a year or 2 top ten. Then they fall off a cliff(usually).
Due to all of this, I think the total value over time may be higher for a 22yr old wr that is already putting up top 5 numbers. Additionally rb's tend to get injured more often than wr's so the risk part of the valuation favors the young wr as well.
Would love to hear other opinions.
With that as context I am interested in hearing other views, but here is mine. BTW I am in a 12 team ppr 2rb3wr league (more context). When valuing a WR like Nicks (I own him), I see 10+ years of top production. Some of those years top 5, some maybe even top 3, and then maybe top 10-15 when he reaches 31 or 32. That said MANY of the top wr's (wayne/moss just to name 2) continued top 5 production in their early 30's so who knows. At 32/33 he will even represent very good trade value.
Now when comparing the value of those 10+ years to a top rb (cj or ap), where I would only assume top 5 production for 5 years and then maybe a year or 2 top ten. Then they fall off a cliff(usually).
Due to all of this, I think the total value over time may be higher for a 22yr old wr that is already putting up top 5 numbers. Additionally rb's tend to get injured more often than wr's so the risk part of the valuation favors the young wr as well.
Would love to hear other opinions.
fightingillini
Footballguy
I agree with this 100%I have seen all that I need to see. Nicks has top notch talent, and is in a very good situation that will likely remain the same for a few years. Nicks is a stud and will be for another 8+ years. And if you start 3 WRs, I don't see how you can trade Nicks in a dynasty league unless someone is offering a ton.
I don't really know what else people need to see...he is a first round talent, he outperformed expectations last year, despite injury, this year he is blowing up despite being nicked up a little. Of course, he is not going to score 20 + tds, but in ppr he is gold, like any other topline wr. Comparing him to Jacobs is apples to oranges...Jacobs is a rb who has been playing for many years. Steve Smith is also a bad comparison as he is having a great year (wr 10 or 11) despite the emergence of Nicks.Saying that Giants don't sustain that type of production is also pretty weak. So long as you are predicting the future please tell which teams guarantee future production for players? The Packers? Dolphins? Vikings? Patriots? With the qb issue, most of them would be toast if they were stuck in Fitz's situation...he didn't just lose his franchise qb, the organization screwed up in the worst fashion possible by not getting someone decent...had they signed or traded for a McNabb, a Kitna, a Gradowski or anyone who could sometimes hit the broad side of a barn, Fitz would be at least 5 - 7 points a week better in ppr. Of course it is not likely that he has that kind of production every week...that can be said for every player...however, is it likely that Nicks will have at least 3 more 25 - 30 point games this season, with the rest of the games solid? I would say that it is, and you could probably count on one hand the number of wrs that is true for. In trading him, you would be a fool unless it was for a major upgrade at another position where you are weak.
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That Little Voice
Footballguy
Dont know about everyone else, but I get stuck mistakenly calling him Hicks sometimes because the Giants have/had a guy named Domenik Hixon.
Carry on.
Carry on.
golfguy
Footballguy
couple of things there. #1. nicks hasn't finished a season in the top 5 yet. he is on pace this season, sure. but a lot can happen. #2 saying you will get stud production out of a wr for the next 10 years doesn't make it so. greg jennings 2 seasons ago was hakeem nicks, and while he is still solid i don't think many put him in the top 10. #3 finding a solid WR or even great wr isn't as hard as getting great rb. #4 the years of production are true wrs do last longer but the disparity between say the #3 rb and the #13 rb is far bigger then the gap between the #3 wr and the #13 wr. and 10 years from now eli would be like 39 yrs. old not likely to be in the league. so you will probably only get a few stud seasons out of him. (see steve smith (car) circa 2005). just my 2 cents.
And you see his name lasted a lot as H. Nicks..........
I dont wanna turn this into assistant coach forum banter but after the torching i got, i needed to say something Remember this league is an 8 teamer - 5 keepers every year (Not full dynasty) - 2 QBNot much between Rogers and BigBen over the rest of their careers ................... Surely u not serious
My team now looks likeRogers-Romo-Vick-Bradford-McNabb-Kitna - (START 2QB - 2 KEEPERS will come from 4 of those guys, the others 2 i will trade for future picks in next years draft)CJ3-SJax-Gore-DeWill-Lynch-R.Bush-Bran Jackson-Ward-Ringer--WoodheadAustin-Moss-Evans-J.JonesGates-HernandezBottom line i get Rogers for the next 8-10 (TOUCHWOOD). He is 2 years younger than BigBen.Thomas and Williams were throw ins, both could put up really good fantasy back half of 2010 seasons, but i dont really need em.There doesnt come many chances that someone is willing to move Aaron Rogers in a 2 QB league. The price i paid im more than happy with.Thanks for not making it clear (dynasty or redraft, ppr or standard) in the op...and then acting an ### about it
In a start 2 QB league, I'm trying to trade Kitna, Hillis, and some sort of throw in (royal, or bess, or health miller) for either gates or nicks from one owner. He has Bradford and Orton and lost romo. Bradford/orton have same bye in week 9, and he would be starting 0 QBs (absolutely nothing on the WW).
He has gore and Mccoy at RB, with M bush as reserve. He's gonna be in rough shape with mostly late byes in weeks 9 or 10, but it's hard to pry away nicks from him.
He has gore and Mccoy at RB, with M bush as reserve. He's gonna be in rough shape with mostly late byes in weeks 9 or 10, but it's hard to pry away nicks from him.
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
I inquired about trading Foster/S.SmithNYG for Nicks/Charles..but he wasn't interested. Thought it was a pretty good offer from me.
lmao, in this exact situation. It's actually not a good situation. I've gotten less points from having the three of them than I would with just two. It's a very peculiar thing as I start the highest ranked guy out of Nicks or Calvin and start White every week. They are completely unpredictable, all or nothing guys, and matchups/injury reports mean absolutely nothing. Was actually told it would be better off to start Nicks + Calvin since they have super high ceilings that counteract each other's floors but that's not the case after White last week. The only way out is to trade and you're pretty screwed if your league hates trading.
Major
Footballguy
Major
Footballguy
You trade Calvin for McFadden
Week 6: Calvin @NYG 5 catches, 146 yards, 1 TD for 29ptsNicks Det 3 catches, 8 yardsHe had 2 for 38 in week 2 and 7 for 56 in week 3. His TD saved week 2 but thats beside the point. You took my post out of context. He is an awesome WR but deciding between Nicks and Calvin each week is almost impossible to do. Nicks will probably have at least one more game where he gets few yards and zero TD but do you think you could pick that exact week and choose Calvin over him? No, probably not. It's not that it's a gamble in a same sense that you are thinking but it is a gamble deciding when is the time to count him out and plug Calvin over him and vice versa. Oh and this is in comparison to White who is insanely consistent with a high floor so it is an unfair comparison but that's the context I was speaking in considering the post was about a team with all 3.Nicks?dude is about as close to
in the bank as you can get for a WR
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GoBirds
Footballguy
But then do I start him over ADP or Bradshaw?I'm not complaining, not used to these types of problems and don't want to jinx it.
