FanDuel 2015 - Week 4 (1 Viewer)

[Zyphros]

First crack:

Tyrod Taylor

Eddie Lacy

Latavius Murray

Emmanuel Sanders

Amari Cooper

Steve Smith

Charles Clay

Matt Bryant

Denver D

$0 left over

 

[James Daulton]

I think Vick, Brown, and Bell with have good days against the Ravens. The Ravens D is getting by on reputation alone. They have trouble stopping the run and suck against the pass (particularly against speedy receivers). The short week and travel mean they can't scheme for Vick plus they don't have the speed on the edge to contain him. I'm not predicting huge days (wouldn't be surprised) but I can easily see high floors for all of them.

I also think Flacco is a good GPP play but his receiving core is so abysmal (other than SS) that I just can't bring myself to play him.

 

[Itchy Amos]

I'm really interested to see if Arian Foster gets back on the field this week. If he doesn't, then I think Alfred Blue becomes huge value at $6,400. If Foster does come back, I'll probably avoid the HOU backfield altogether since it'll probably be a time share. Atlanta allows the most points to opposing rbs.

Assuming that Foster misses this game, I'm probably going to be heavy on Lacy, L. Murray, K. Williams & Blue.

I'm also a bit nervous to roll M. Bennett out there at TE. I know his matchup is great, but Chicago may be bad enough that they aren't capable of taking advantage of it.

 

[VA703]

Chicago sounds like a dumpster fire right now. big sale liquidation im sure forte and cutler are being shopped around

 

[sdp1226]

I'm really interested to see if Arian Foster gets back on the field this week. If he doesn't, then I think Alfred Blue becomes huge value at $6,400. If Foster does come back, I'll probably avoid the HOU backfield altogether since it'll probably be a time share. Atlanta allows the most points to opposing rbs.

Assuming that Foster misses this game, I'm probably going to be heavy on Lacy, L. Murray, K. Williams & Blue.

I'm also a bit nervous to roll M. Bennett out there at TE. I know his matchup is great, but Chicago may be bad enough that they aren't capable of taking advantage of it.

I am liking Hopkins a lot from the ATL/HOU matchup.

In the first 2 weeks, #1 receivers have put up some very nice stat lines against Atlanta.

10/100/0 to Jordan Matthews

7/146/1 to ODB

I think he'll be well worth his $7900 price tag

 

[Fantasysports1]

I think the core WRs are Julio, Fitzgerald and James Jones. Of course there are other strong cash options but why go to other options? Explain why I should go with a Steve Smith, Hopkins over any of the three I have mentioned? Are you going to fade Julio or Fitzgerald? Fitzgerald is producing at a very high level right now.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Chicago sounds like a dumpster fire right now. big sale liquidation im sure forte and cutler are being shopped around

I wish Forte would get to a quality team. That dude can play football and goes about his business like a pro. He deserves better than what's happening in Chicago.

 

[karmarooster]

Early 50/50 lineup for Thursday, fading Thursday...

Cam

L Murray

K Williams (even if McCoy plays some I will risk it Thursday)

Julio Jones

K Allen

J Jones (Adams likely out and no price change from Mondays performance)

J Reed (Has been very close to TD's the last few weeks and the price is still so low)

J Lambo (need a 4500 kicker and he is at home

DEN D

Thoughts on Bell?

If McCoy is ruled out after Thursday, his ownership will spike. I still think it'll be decently high Thursday.

I am using Bell in a pair of large tournaments where I am going with either Carr/Cooper or Bortles/Hurns. He will get a ton of touches though I am sure the Ravens will be focused on him. It is a bit of a selfish play as I just want to root for him and the Steelers Thursday.

I think Bell is probably a fade for GPPs, and a decent play for cash games instead. I'm assuming he'll have the overall highest ownership percentage for TNF.

 

[Zyphros]

I think the core WRs are Julio, Fitzgerald and James Jones. Of course there are other strong cash options but why go to other options? Explain why I should go with a Steve Smith, Hopkins over any of the three I have mentioned? Are you going to fade Julio or Fitzgerald? Fitzgerald is producing at a very high level right now.

As to the Steve Smith question, I think he's a really good play. I am a Steelers fan and the secondary is questionable. Smith is a baller who won't be denied especially in a rivalry game. Although the score is usually really close (mostly decided by a field goal), the defense for both teams are questionable. I imagine our key is to stop Steve Smith, but when has that plan EVER worked against that guy by ANY team? At some point Floyd/J. Brown will have that big game instead of Fitz and although he's done amazing things, so yes they are very strong cash game lineups, but for GPP purposes his ownership will be high, make a contrarian pick and go for it. It's the only way to win.

 

[karmarooster]

I think the core WRs are Julio, Fitzgerald and James Jones. Of course there are other strong cash options but why go to other options? Explain why I should go with a Steve Smith, Hopkins over any of the three I have mentioned? Are you going to fade Julio or Fitzgerald? Fitzgerald is producing at a very high level right now.

Fitz is a tough fade at his price.

Julio, not so much at $9,400. I don't think he'll be on many of my rosters at that price, given the number of mid-range options like Nuk, Hilton, Fitz, Evans (but tough CB matchup), and Cooper. He's go to slow down at some point, right? Even if he puts up 20 points that's "barely" hitting value. A 7/90/1 game for him would not be enough. At the premium price I might prefer DT.

 

[VA703]

KC is the worst def against recivers. sprinkle AJG in there

QB Aaron Rodgers 9200
RB Latavius Murray 7500
RB Karlos Williams 6300
WR Larry Fitzgerald 7400
WR A.J. Green 8400
WR James Jones 6000
TE Jordan Reed 5600
K Brandon McManus 4900
D NY Jets 4700

 

[karmarooster]

I like both of those. Could also swap in Bennett and the Bills D. How much under the cap are you for #1 if you can just upgrade SS to AJG with no other changes?

 

[DukeBroadway]

Hold the phone VA. KC has been the worst so far. Thats what happens when your #1 corner is suspended for the first 3 games. If he wasnt back I would be in on green as a KC fan. I am off Green, but thats just me. I can see Green having a decent day cause he is a stud. Putting my money elsewhere.

 

[VA703]

I like both of those. Could also swap in Bennett and the Bills D. How much under the cap are you for #1 if you can just upgrade SS to AJG with no other changes?

yeah I just realized I had 1100 leftover so I scratched that one

 

[VA703]

Hold the phone VA. KC has been the worst so far. Thats what happens when your #1 corner is suspended for the first 3 games. If he wasnt back I would be in on green as a KC fan. I am off Green, but thats just me. I can see Green having a decent day cause he is a stud. Putting my money elsewhere.

good point . back to the drawing board

 

[karmarooster]

Does anywhere here play the small dollar Satellites for Sunday Million (or other bigger dollar GPPs)? Last week I laid out 3 x $2 satellites for Thursday and 4 x $2 for Sunday, and hit the (very difficult top 6%) cut line on 3. I went with the big 5k+ games rather than the small top 5 out of 71 types. For the Satellites to the bigger dollar GPPs, its much much worse (like 1 out of 172 entries for the $2 satellite to the $300 monster).

So my total cash outlay was $14, and won $75 in entries. But the EV for the Sunday Million is just $75 x 18%, or $13.50. I got fairly lucky to hit 3 of them, so if it was just 1 or 2 the EV would be much worse. Cutline was at 169, so a fair bit higher than the Quintuple up at 154. Cutline for the Sunday Million itself was 151.

Was cool to hit on these for next week, but I doubt it's sustainable.

Bump... anyone here doing the Satellites?

 

[mrip541]

The leading receiver for DAL is $5600. DAL is playing NO.

edit - fixed price.

 

[IgglesFan]

giants have been decent against the run

might need to pump the breaks on karlos williams

+1

they are number 2 against the run this year. Now, that is in part because of who they have played and how those games have played out...but that said, it is pretty clear that the Giants can be thrown on. every QB they have faced thus far has gone over 300+ yards. Might be more of a Taylor-made day then Williams.

 

[Scoresman]

Except Karlos is cheap, has opportunity and will probably be highly owned. Those 3 make him a very strong play for cash games.

The guy I'm fading this week is Carr. I know Chicago is a dumpster fire, but Oakland is once again on the road after a big road win, so the letddown factor is high, and the weather is fairly unsettled.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

giants have been decent against the run

might need to pump the breaks on karlos williams

+1

they are number 2 against the run this year. Now, that is in part because of who they have played and how those games have played out...but that said, it is pretty clear that the Giants can be thrown on. every QB they have faced thus far has gone over 300+ yards. Might be more of a Taylor-made day then Williams.

This is very true but at 6300 Williams doesn't need to do a ton as a starting RB if McCoy is out (as appears to be the case), at least in a cash game.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

I'm kicking the tires on this lineup for my Thursday cash action.

Bortles

L.Murray

K. Williams

Julio

Fitzgerald

S. Smith Sr.

Reed

Bryant

Broncos

Lots of chalk there for sure.

 

[Joe T]

Bortles :X

 

[karmarooster]

Think I'm getting a little carried away, but looking at using 5 different LUs for TNF: Rodgers, Cam, Luck, Carr, and Wilson.

Mixing in:

RBs Karlos, Bell, Gore, Gordon

WRs Cobb, SS, Fitz, Cooper, James Jones, Nuk

TEs Olsen, Bennet, Reed

 

[snellman]

I normally only do 1 Thurs cash lineup, but this week I am going to go with 2.

One lineup is going to fade the Thurs game, the other is going to have Vick, Brown, and Smith (following Dodds' post)

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Bortles :X

I get it but I keep coming back around to him. Indy's pass defense looks horrible.

 

[Drafthorse]

I normally only do 1 Thurs cash lineup, but this week I am going to go with 2.

One lineup is going to fade the Thurs game, the other is going to have Vick, Brown, and Smith (following Dodds' post)

Link to DD post?

been traveling and couldn't keep up for the last couple days! ughh

 

[eoMMan]

When people are considering "oh, this team sucks against the run/pass/whatever", keep in mind that the season is still very young. Stats can be skewed simply by who the opponents have been. Or if certain key players have been suspended/injured.

For example, going into last week, everyone (well, pretty much everyone) thought Dallas had a great run defense after shutting down the Eagles. Well, Davante Freeman (who most people thought kinda sucked heading into the game) had a fantastic game against them.

My point is that I think it's important to look back at each game and just get an idea of why the team might have played bad or played well.

 

[TropicalStorm]

Be alert on Jordan Reed or anyone else in the Redskins-Eagles game due to possible storm cancellation. Not sure how FD handles these issues if it were to happen.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25323261/redskins-eagles-could-be-moved-to-week-8-due-to-hurricane-joaquin

 

[snellman]

I normally only do 1 Thurs cash lineup, but this week I am going to go with 2.

One lineup is going to fade the Thurs game, the other is going to have Vick, Brown, and Smith (following Dodds' post)

Link to DD post?

been traveling and couldn't keep up for the last couple days! ughh

A Counter Strategy I Use in Cash Games
I have been perfecting this over the last few seasons and yesterday it showcased why I like the strategy so well.It starts with what I perceive as this myth: "Don't Stack your QB/WR in cash games".

I have always scratched my head with that one. That's exactly what you do when you would like to score the most points and win a GPP. And when a matchup is great and We expect a QB to shred it, why wouldn't we double up on that situation if the WR was reasonably priced as well.

Not only do I stack in nearly all of my cash game submits, I also look to get the best WR or TE on the opposing team in my lineup (sometimes there is not someone I like enough to warrant this). In my cash games this week, I started with these pairings:

Cam Newton / Olsen Olsen stack only

Carson Palmer / Larry Fitzgerald stack only

Andrew Luck / T.Y. Hilton stack and Kendall Wright

Tom Brady / Julian Edelman stack and Allen Hurns

Tom Brady / Rob Gronkowski stack and Allen Hurns

Russell Wilson / Jimmy Graham stack only

Marcus Mariota / Kendall Wright stack and T.Y. Hilton

Eli Manning / Odell Beckham Jr, stack and Jordan Reed (Thu)

Matt Ryan / Julio Jones stack only

Ben Roethlisberger / Antonio Brown stack and Kenny Britt

Nick Foles / Kenny Britt stack and Antonio Brown

Blake Bortles / Allen Hurns and Julian Edelman

Aaron Rodgers / Randall Cobb stack and Travis Kelce

Alex Smith / Travis Kelce stack and Randall Cobb


I am set to win heavily with 12 of these 14 this week. But forget the results for awhile. I will tell you why I favor this approach:

- When your quarterback is awful (or gets hurt), your lineup is in deep trouble anyway. Suffice it to say the Ben Roethlisberger roster above is not going to win. But would any Roethlisberger roster you created this week have won? If so it did it with everyone else.

- By starting with different bases of 2-3 players, you end up with a wider range of dollars left. This forces you into choosing slightly different players and limiting being over-exposed to any one guy.

- These same lineups can be used in 2X, 3X, 5X, and smaller GPPs. They are high variance plays that can get way above the cutline when all three parts of the stack work. In fact this is what I like the most about this particular strategy). Let's say you are going to allocate $100 to a 3 part stacked lineup.

I would allocate it like this:

$50 (50%) in 2X and 50/50s
$30 (30%) in 3X
$20 (20%) in 5X and smaller GPP

You get the benefit of a major hit when it all goes well.

I realize that 14 starting stack combos can be a bit extreme for people (me included). In most weeks, I am looking to play 4-6 such combos. This week had a lot of games where I thought a shoot was definitely possible and wanted these extra lineups in play to minimize variance on the players I really liked.

 

[snellman]

Be alert on Jordan Reed or anyone else in the Redskins-Eagles game due to possible storm cancellation. Not sure how FD handles these issues if it were to happen.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25323261/redskins-eagles-could-be-moved-to-week-8-due-to-hurricane-joaquin

Good catch. I had Reed going in one of my lineups, so I will probably pivot off him to Bennett to be safe. Not a big fan of being heavily invested in Bennett, but don't feel like taking any chances. I could plug in Miller, but that lineup already has Vick and Bryant so not sure if I want to go that heavy on Pitt.

 

[NixonMask]

Typically policy is to include the game in the slate as long as it occurs by the following Tuesday or Wednesday I believe. Hope that isnt the case though because it would mean the slate wouldnt pay out until like the following Thursday.

 

[Fantasysports1]

I am going to make around 5 1 dollar lineups in Thur cash to see ownership rates. Last year I think I overlooked a few players ownerships and when certain players are highly owned you have to consider using them as well. I don't have NFL incentives for RG so that doesn't help as you get cash plays and more.

 

[frae]

Typically policy is to include the game in the slate as long as it occurs by the following Tuesday or Wednesday I believe. Hope that isnt the case though because it would mean the slate wouldnt pay out until like the following Thursday.

One rumor is that they would make up the game week 8 since they both have their bye scheduled then. I guess I need to move Reed out of my lineup for anything that starts Thursday.

 

[NixonMask]

Typically policy is to include the game in the slate as long as it occurs by the following Tuesday or Wednesday I believe. Hope that isnt the case though because it would mean the slate wouldnt pay out until like the following Thursday.

One rumor is that they would make up the game week 8 since they both have their bye scheduled then. I guess I need to move Reed out of my lineup for anything that starts Thursday.

Just glancing back at the rules it looks like theyre just going to count any player in those games as 0's for the week if its cancelled. I know thats what they did for MLB yesterday too. Awful if it happens, but it means the Thursday slate may have alot of unexpected extra value. Even if only 10% of rosters have a player from the game thats 10% of rosters that may have roster positions with guaranteed zeros.

 

[Wonderllama]

The only reason I would play on Thursday is because I want to use the Ravens defense. I know they're not what they use to be and they're facing Antonio Brown & Le'Veon Bell, but they're also facing Mike Vick on four days notice. You could give Vick 10 days, it wouldn't be enough. He's gonna fumble at least once, maybe twice, in a low scoring game with a Baltimore team desperate for a win. This could be really ugly.

 

[VA703]

assuming all of the bolded games might be impacted by the hurricane on sunday

10/1 8:25 ET Baltimore -2.5 At Pittsburgh 44

10/4 9:30 AM NY Jets -2 Miami (At London) 41
10/4 1:00 ET At Indianapolis -9 Jacksonville 47
10/4 1:00 ET At Atlanta -6.5 Houston 46.5 ???????
10/4 1:00 ET Carolina -3 At Tampa Bay 40
10/4 1:00 ET At Buffalo -6 NY Giants 47 ???????
10/4 1:00 ET Oakland -3 At Chicago 44
10/4 1:00 ET Philadelphia -3 At Washington 47.5
10/4 1;00 ET At Cincinnati -2.5 Kansas City 43.5
10/4 4:05 ET At San Diego -7.5 Cleveland 45
10/4 4:25 ET Green Bay -9.5 At San Francisco 48
10/4 4:25 ET At Denver -6.5 Minnesota 43
10/4 4:25 ET At Arizona -6.5 St. Louis 42.5
10/4 8:30 ET At New Orleans -4 Dallas 46.5

Monday Night Football Line

10/5 8:30 ET At Seattle -9.5 Detroit 43

 

[topman]

Any thoughts on using Max Williams as a TE option for Cash game.

Playing against Pittsburgh and first start due to Gilmore injury.

Baltimore TE combo avg 5 rec. 70 yds/game thru first 3 games.

I know rookie tight ends don't produce huge numbers but he does not need much to be a value at $4700.

 

[mrip541]

Maxdalury had the most insane week 3. Well over $100k in Sunday Million alone with like 17 cashing lineups.

 

[VA703]

any love for cj2k @ $6700

 

[James Daulton]

The only reason I would play on Thursday is because I want to use the Ravens defense. I know they're not what they use to be and they're facing Antonio Brown & Le'Veon Bell, but they're also facing Mike Vick on four days notice. You could give Vick 10 days, it wouldn't be enough. He's gonna fumble at least once, maybe twice, in a low scoring game with a Baltimore team desperate for a win. This could be really ugly.

I don't see this at all. The Ravens can be run and passed on. They have no pass rush. I'm betting that Bell will get plenty and Brown will break free for at least one long TD. Vick can pass when he's given time and he'll have plenty of time against the Ravens. I expect him to have decent rushing yards to go with a passing TD or two. I think Vick is a good play.

 

[Fantasysports1]

My goal is to win 60%+ of my cash games on FD, so far I am around 65% with a bit of double ups. I just want to know that I can be a profitable player though I probably won't play enough to approach being a semi professional anytime soon. The thing is anyone who can legit win 60% of their cash games and uses BR management can make a lot over time.

 

[mrip541]

The fbg crusher app is free this week and missing the Broncos D, at least on my android. Wonder if that will be enough to drop ownership.

 

[Bobcat10]

Fanduel is now totally blocked at my work too. Started Monday. I think I read a couple others having that issue. Last year I was able to do whatever I wanted on FD. This year, I'm not sure if it was the changes made in their lobby and other screens, certain things wouldn't load. I was able to view some things, but couldn't edit a lineup or even join a contest. Now, I'm totally blocked. Blows.

 

[mrip541]

Fanduel is now totally blocked at my work too. Started Monday. I think I read a couple others having that issue. Last year I was able to do whatever I wanted on FD. This year, I'm not sure if it was the changes made in their lobby and other screens, certain things wouldn't load. I was able to view some things, but couldn't edit a lineup or even join a contest. Now, I'm totally blocked. Blows.

Nerd revenge for the super annoying advertising blitz. They better watch it or the next ban will be from Congress.

 

[Wonderllama]

Fanduel is now totally blocked at my work too. Started Monday. I think I read a couple others having that issue. Last year I was able to do whatever I wanted on FD. This year, I'm not sure if it was the changes made in their lobby and other screens, certain things wouldn't load. I was able to view some things, but couldn't edit a lineup or even join a contest. Now, I'm totally blocked. Blows.

There's a mobile app you know.

 

[JoeSteeler]

appreciate all the posts...super busy week for me (trying to close on a house + work issues) so haven't had much time to look...this thread has been a life saver!

 

[karmarooster]

Fanduel is now totally blocked at my work too. Started Monday. I think I read a couple others having that issue. Last year I was able to do whatever I wanted on FD. This year, I'm not sure if it was the changes made in their lobby and other screens, certain things wouldn't load. I was able to view some things, but couldn't edit a lineup or even join a contest. Now, I'm totally blocked. Blows.

There's a mobile app you know.

FYI, I also found out last week when travelling in Europe the FD webpage was blocked from entering or editing contests (due to foreign IP address), but the mobile app worked just fine.

 

[Bobcat10]

Fanduel is now totally blocked at my work too. Started Monday. I think I read a couple others having that issue. Last year I was able to do whatever I wanted on FD. This year, I'm not sure if it was the changes made in their lobby and other screens, certain things wouldn't load. I was able to view some things, but couldn't edit a lineup or even join a contest. Now, I'm totally blocked. Blows.

There's a mobile app you know.

Of course.

I'd much rather use the web version at work though. Ease of use. You also cannot create anything besides H2H contests on the app.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Fanduel is now totally blocked at my work too. Started Monday. I think I read a couple others having that issue. Last year I was able to do whatever I wanted on FD. This year, I'm not sure if it was the changes made in their lobby and other screens, certain things wouldn't load. I was able to view some things, but couldn't edit a lineup or even join a contest. Now, I'm totally blocked. Blows.

There's a mobile app you know.

The iOS app is actually better than the website interface.

 

[Bobcat10]

Fanduel is now totally blocked at my work too. Started Monday. I think I read a couple others having that issue. Last year I was able to do whatever I wanted on FD. This year, I'm not sure if it was the changes made in their lobby and other screens, certain things wouldn't load. I was able to view some things, but couldn't edit a lineup or even join a contest. Now, I'm totally blocked. Blows.

There's a mobile app you know.

The iOS app is actually better than the website interface.

Yes the iOS app is great. Live scoring is fantastic. Entering contests is also great. I'd still rather tinker with lineups on my PC if I had to choose though.