Fanduel/DraftKings Week 3 (1 Viewer)

[nastynate]

Who ya got?

Early I'm liking Golden Tate for $5k on Fanduel vs the Packers, in Detroit.

How about Ryan Fitzpatrick vs Giants who just lost Walter Thurmond? At Giants, but 6400 is pretty cheap.

Edleman at 6900 continues to be a strong value.

Bradshaw at 5200 might be intriguing after we see the split tonight...at JAX so should see plenty of work next week.

 

[(HULK)]

KNile @ Miami down 3 LBs, right?

 

[nastynate]

Hulk, you doing any of the Monday - Thursday games right now?

 

[Smack Tripper]

Do they change the point on players week to week?

 

[Phenomena]

Do they change the point on players week to week?

Yea, they do.

 

[nastynate]

Draftkings I like Shady at 7800, Vereen at 5100 (maybe), Pierre Thomas at 4900.

Harvin at 5400, Cruz at 5200, Tate at 5k -- too many value receivers to even list. 5500-4500 is stacked.

Olsen a good value vs steelers with Shazier lost in coverage.

 

[jandyt]

Ive been doing about 40% H2H, 40% 50/50, 5 X3, and 15% GPP.

 

[jandyt]

Draftkings I like Shady at 7800, Vereen at 5100 (maybe), Pierre Thomas at 4900.

Harvin at 5400, Cruz at 5200, Tate at 5k -- too many value receivers to even list. 5500-4500 is stacked.

Olsen a good value vs steelers with Shazier lost in coverage.

Agreed lots of low to mid value WRs this week, have figure which ones I like best. I kinda like J Thomas this week a his price is down a bit while Grahams is way up. Also like Kelce as I think his involvement continues to grow and his price is still low. Probably use NE DT everywhere. Couple lower priced RBs I might consider are Brown and Robinson. Morris looks a good option with the way the Phiili Run D looks.

 

[(HULK)]

Hulk, you doing any of the Monday - Thursday games right now?

Nah. I don't like the time gap and relying on Thursday guys to do well.

 

[donkshow]

I'll have Knile Davis in just about every lineup this week.

 

[nastynate]

Hulk, you doing any of the Monday - Thursday games right now?

Nah. I don't like the time gap and relying on Thursday guys to do well.

Agree, but I think it brings up an interesting strategy. If there is a Monday game projected to be high scoring, do you go heavy on Monday, letting the suckers take players playing on Thursday, while you cherry pick 1-2 blue chips from that game?

Thinking I might try it next time we have a ripe Monday night game.

 

[SYMPHONY X]

Who ya got?

Early I'm liking Golden Tate for $5k on Fanduel vs the Packers, in Detroit.

How about Ryan Fitzpatrick vs Giants who just lost Walter Thurmond? At Giants, but 6400 is pretty cheap.

Edleman at 6900 continues to be a strong value.

Bradshaw at 5200 might be intriguing after we see the split tonight...at JAX so should see plenty of work next week.

I also like Tater tot at $5,000 in a shootout versus the Packers.

Rashad Jennings at $6400...his price went down by $300 compared to weeks 1 and 2, and he will continue to be heavily involved.

Ridley at $6200 in what should be an absolute beat-down of OAK by the Pats. Ridley looking good for 100+ and a TD.

Bobby Rainey for $5700 at ATL, but he is playing in the Thursday game.

Looks like a ton of values to be had at RB this week with all of the RB injuries. Could mix and match Knile Davis with a number of these values and load up at WR or TE.

 

[Peyton Marino]

Hulk, you doing any of the Monday - Thursday games right now?

Nah. I don't like the time gap and relying on Thursday guys to do well.

Agree, but I think it brings up an interesting strategy. If there is a Monday game projected to be high scoring, do you go heavy on Monday, letting the suckers take players playing on Thursday, while you cherry pick 1-2 blue chips from that game?

Thinking I might try it next time we have a ripe Monday night game.

i'm doing this right now. in a H2H against a dude with 4 wins coming in, he essentially did the same thing. i'm also in a couple 30 player leagues on DK, but don't feel like scrolling through every team to see who people picked.

 

[(HULK)]

Hulk, you doing any of the Monday - Thursday games right now?

Nah. I don't like the time gap and relying on Thursday guys to do well.

Actually, my brain is churning now. One of the stat crunchers here has pointed out that the average score & fantasy points scored in Thursday night games is lower than the averages for the weekend. Does the opposite hold true for Monday nights? Are Monday night games typically higher scoring than the rest of the games? I know the assumed cause is that the more time an offense has to prep, the more points they score. If thats accurate, then wouldn't Monday games have higher scoring?

Someone with access to one of those querier things want to run a quick and dirty analysis and see if that is accurate, Monday nights are the best place for fantasy points? Could make for an interesting Mon/Thur angle, playing the Ds from Thursday night and the entire O from Monday night.

 

[MattFancy]

At first glance on DK, I didn't see any QBs that had good value, maybe I'm wrong. My first impression lineup I went with Brady at QB. Know he's been quiet so far, but Oakland's defense is ripe for the picking there. Anyone else feel the same?

Agree on Morris at RB as well. Doesn't seem like Phily is much against the run and with Cousins getting the start, it may be a good amount of Morris run plays to keep Cousins calm early.

 

[donkey]

Hulk, you doing any of the Monday - Thursday games right now?

Nah. I don't like the time gap and relying on Thursday guys to do well.

Actually, my brain is churning now. One of the stat crunchers here has pointed out that the average score & fantasy points scored in Thursday night games is lower than the averages for the weekend. Does the opposite hold true for Monday nights? Are Monday night games typically higher scoring than the rest of the games? I know the assumed cause is that the more time an offense has to prep, the more points they score. If thats accurate, then wouldn't Monday games have higher scoring?

Someone with access to one of those querier things want to run a quick and dirty analysis and see if that is accurate, Monday nights are the best place for fantasy points? Could make for an interesting Mon/Thur angle, playing the Ds from Thursday night and the entire O from Monday night.

I played Luck, McCoy, Sproles, J. Jones, Maclin, Hilton, D. Allen, Vinateri, Atl in 17 Mon-Thur contests. Mostly 3-20 man tournaments with some 50/50 and a couple of GPPs mixed in. Currently sitting at or near the top in most. Most teams I came up against were heavy on Monday night players. There are some teams with some combination of Ryan/Julio/Roddy stack in my smaller tourneys - but not as many had Ryan in lineups as I thought would.

 

[Caesar]

Hulk, you doing any of the Monday - Thursday games right now?

Nah. I don't like the time gap and relying on Thursday guys to do well.

Actually, my brain is churning now. One of the stat crunchers here has pointed out that the average score & fantasy points scored in Thursday night games is lower than the averages for the weekend. Does the opposite hold true for Monday nights? Are Monday night games typically higher scoring than the rest of the games? I know the assumed cause is that the more time an offense has to prep, the more points they score. If thats accurate, then wouldn't Monday games have higher scoring?

Someone with access to one of those querier things want to run a quick and dirty analysis and see if that is accurate, Monday nights are the best place for fantasy points? Could make for an interesting Mon/Thur angle, playing the Ds from Thursday night and the entire O from Monday night.

I played Luck, McCoy, Sproles, J. Jones, Maclin, Hilton, D. Allen, Vinateri, Atl in 17 Mon-Thur contests. Mostly 3-20 man tournaments with some 50/50 and a couple of GPPs mixed in. Currently sitting at or near the top in most. Most teams I came up against were heavy on Monday night players. There are some teams with some combination of Ryan/Julio/Roddy stack in my smaller tourneys - but not as many had Ryan in lineups as I thought would.

I had a very similar lineup to this, but had Bradshaw substituted into 5 lineups over maclin and I used the Eagles D. Allen not even getting a target really annoyed me, but I don't see very many TEs in this group to worry about. Ertz did OK, but nothing too bad. It should make the Thursday game actually interesting for a change.

 

[Peyton Marino]

Falcons D seemed like a no brainer in the Mon-Thurs games. On FD they were only 4600 and the cheapest of the 4 options. I was pretty similar the lineups above, though I went with Foles and took Steven Jackson as my flex on DK. Anyone who took Shady, Sproles and Bradshaw on DK is probably an automatic cash.

 

[Peyton Marino]

someone talk me out of Kirk Cousins this week. at $6800 he only has to put up 13.5 points to be worth it in cash games. early lines have philly favored by 7. though I'm sure that'll move, it suggests we could see a lot of throwing late in the game. thoughts?

 

[Zyphros]

Right now I'm toying with lineups that are heavy on WR and find the value RB's. Knile Davis, Sproles, West, Donald Brown, Woodhead are all pretty good value. Pile up a couple good WR's with + match-ups and hopefully it spells success for me this week.

Sidenote: Does anyone have any set strategies they use for certain positions? Like only take a DEF that is playing at home for example. I'm curious to see what "rules" some of you guys use.

 

[hagmania]

Right now I'm toying with lineups that are heavy on WR and find the value RB's. Knile Davis, Sproles, West, Donald Brown, Woodhead are all pretty good value. Pile up a couple good WR's with + match-ups and hopefully it spells success for me this week.

Sidenote: Does anyone have any set strategies they use for certain positions? Like only take a DEF that is playing at home for example. I'm curious to see what "rules" some of you guys use.

DEF:

Look @ schedule

Find OAK, JAX, NYG

Choose opponents

 

[jandyt]

At first glance on DK, I didn't see any QBs that had good value, maybe I'm wrong. My first impression lineup I went with Brady at QB. Know he's been quiet so far, but Oakland's defense is ripe for the picking there. Anyone else feel the same?

Agree on Morris at RB as well. Doesn't seem like Phily is much against the run and with Cousins getting the start, it may be a good amount of Morris run plays to keep Cousins calm early.

Worry about NE running the ball a lot and jumping up early limiting Brady. Im thinking Wilson may be a good play this week. Cutler could come up big but isn't cheap.

 

[(HULK)]

Right now I'm toying with lineups that are heavy on WR and find the value RB's. Knile Davis, Sproles, West, Donald Brown, Woodhead are all pretty good value. Pile up a couple good WR's with + match-ups and hopefully it spells success for me this week.

Sidenote: Does anyone have any set strategies they use for certain positions? Like only take a DEF that is playing at home for example. I'm curious to see what "rules" some of you guys use.

DEF:

Look @ schedule

Find OAK, JAX, NYG

Choose opponents

This is what I usually do. Had HOU and ARZ early in the week, but then somehow talked myself into Seattle on the road cause they were the same price as HOU. If I had kept HOU, I would've won several hundred more, possible 1K more. Doh.

TL,DR, the above is the best strategy, deviate at your own peril.

 

[nastynate]

I think the real M-Th advantages will come when the games are at the opposite ends of the spectrum. I'm going to do some research and find out when we have teams like Denver on Monday night, the same week we have duds (jax, oak, etc) on Thursday night.

As others have mentioned, this seems to be a common strategy, but even if it's 75% of the entries, you're still sitting on a big advantage in H2Hs and 50/50s.

As Hulk said...important to figure out if Mondays are statistically better. Maybe someone from FBG will have something for us...

 

[karmarooster]

Came back to about even on FD after disastrous week 1, and up about 10% on DK ... I think. Something weird is going on with my FD account, it shows my balance as if winnings have been paid but still shows a decent number of Live games. Anyone else see something weird?

 

[(HULK)]

Glad to see that we pretty much all had good week 2s

We're getting smarter (or Shaun Hill averse, one or the other)

 

[nastynate]

We're getting smarter (or Shaun Hill averse, one or the other)

I can't even say his name without throwing up in my mouth a little

 

[MattFancy]

At first glance on DK, I didn't see any QBs that had good value, maybe I'm wrong. My first impression lineup I went with Brady at QB. Know he's been quiet so far, but Oakland's defense is ripe for the picking there. Anyone else feel the same?

Agree on Morris at RB as well. Doesn't seem like Phily is much against the run and with Cousins getting the start, it may be a good amount of Morris run plays to keep Cousins calm early.

Worry about NE running the ball a lot and jumping up early limiting Brady. Im thinking Wilson may be a good play this week. Cutler could come up big but isn't cheap.

Agreed. I just don't see really any value plays at QB this week. Maybe Cousins? But that's stil risky. May just have to pay for a high dollar QB this week and find value eslewhere.

 

[Bhdevault]

Came back to about even on FD after disastrous week 1, and up about 10% on DK ... I think. Something weird is going on with my FD account, it shows my balance as if winnings have been paid but still shows a decent number of Live games. Anyone else see something weird?

It's the same for me. I notice my balance going up little by little though. I think they are still sorting through games. I wouldn't take stock in the live games at the moment because I'm positive some of those have already went into your balance, while some have not.

I'm just not paying attention to it until later today and all the live games are gone.

 

[nastynate]

Yeah, my balance looks to be short by about 20% of my winnings. Interested to see how this plays out...

 

[karmarooster]

First glance thursday lineups:

Stafford

Morris

Gio

Percy

Wallace

Colston

Donnell

or

Stafford

Pthomas

Sproles

Harvin

Wallace

Colston

Graham

(too many Saints)

 

[donkey]

Hulk, you doing any of the Monday - Thursday games right now?

Nah. I don't like the time gap and relying on Thursday guys to do well.

Actually, my brain is churning now. One of the stat crunchers here has pointed out that the average score & fantasy points scored in Thursday night games is lower than the averages for the weekend. Does the opposite hold true for Monday nights? Are Monday night games typically higher scoring than the rest of the games? I know the assumed cause is that the more time an offense has to prep, the more points they score. If thats accurate, then wouldn't Monday games have higher scoring?

Someone with access to one of those querier things want to run a quick and dirty analysis and see if that is accurate, Monday nights are the best place for fantasy points? Could make for an interesting Mon/Thur angle, playing the Ds from Thursday night and the entire O from Monday night.

I didn't look at fantasy points, but did look at total points scored for all Monday night games between 2010-2013. The average total points scored was 44.3 with a min of 19 and max of 87. The Median value was 43.5. Based on vegas over/under of first couple of weeks I seem to recall a high number of over/unders in the 43-44 range. My guess is that there isn't going to be a big difference on Monday games vs Sunday games if you break it down much further.

 

[ajm27501]

Not sure how many of you guys entered in the $5 survivor contest that started last week, but I am paranoid about getting knocked out by forgetting to set a lineup for it. Anyone know how/when we will be able to do that?

 

[donkey]

Hulk, you doing any of the Monday - Thursday games right now?

Nah. I don't like the time gap and relying on Thursday guys to do well.

Actually, my brain is churning now. One of the stat crunchers here has pointed out that the average score & fantasy points scored in Thursday night games is lower than the averages for the weekend. Does the opposite hold true for Monday nights? Are Monday night games typically higher scoring than the rest of the games? I know the assumed cause is that the more time an offense has to prep, the more points they score. If thats accurate, then wouldn't Monday games have higher scoring?

Someone with access to one of those querier things want to run a quick and dirty analysis and see if that is accurate, Monday nights are the best place for fantasy points? Could make for an interesting Mon/Thur angle, playing the Ds from Thursday night and the entire O from Monday night.

I didn't look at fantasy points, but did look at total points scored for all Monday night games between 2010-2013. The average total points scored was 44.3 with a min of 19 and max of 87. The Median value was 43.5. Based on vegas over/under of first couple of weeks I seem to recall a high number of over/unders in the 43-44 range. My guess is that there isn't going to be a big difference on Monday games vs Sunday games if you break it down much further.

Decided to look at Th night games as well for same time period. Average total points scored is 43.4 with a min of 17 and max of 68. Median was 44. Sample size 43 Th night games and 68 Mon night games. Statistically no difference in total points scored.

 

[(HULK)]

Thats weird. The fade has worked and worked well. Maybe its just a superstition? I thought someone had some hard data supporting it?

 

[audiolover]

Thats weird. The fade has worked and worked well. Maybe its just a superstition? I thought someone had some hard data supporting it?

The reason the fade has worked is that every team will get a game on Thursday night which makes the chance for some blowout/ugly games to be played. Also the difference is in fantasy points scored which has been about 5-10% less.

 

[donkey]

Thats weird. The fade has worked and worked well. Maybe its just a superstition? I thought someone had some hard data supporting it?

The reason the fade has worked is that every team will get a game on Thursday night which makes the chance for some blowout/ugly games to be played. Also the difference is in fantasy points scored which has been about 5-10% less.

The final point spread is pretty similar too. Average spread on Mon is 13.2 pts with min 1 and max 42, median = 10 points. Average spread on Thursday is 11.5 with Min of 2 and Max of 29, median = 10 points. Outcomes as far as points scored and spread appear to be statistically the same as far as score and point differential.

I think the Th fade has to do with distribution of points. A number 1 back may be more likely to get more rest on Th - distributing the load more. Same for a WR1. Do QBs throw less on Th nights? What I would like to see is fantasy opportunities analyzed. Do WR1 and elite TE get fewer targets on Th compared to Sun/Mon. Same question on carries and pass attempts for RB/QB. I think the success of the fade is hidden in that data set.

I also think it works because of psychology of having skin in the game. I bet you have a lot of cash games - esp 50/50 tournaments with Ryan/Jones/and White all in the same line up.

 

[jandyt]

The study I saw covered games since 2000 and scoring was down 1.1 points on Thursday which is about 2.5% or not very much. But QB, TE, and WR performance was down more significantly while RB scoring was actually slightly up on Thursday.

 

[nastynate]

Hmm, so possibly a more basic game plan leads to less passing?

QB/WR/TE/K Monday

RB/DEF Thurs

 

[karmarooster]

The study I saw covered games since 2000 and scoring was down 1.1 points on Thursday which is about 2.5% or not very much. But QB, TE, and WR performance was down more significantly while RB scoring was actually slightly up on Thursday.

Not trying to be picky, but I don't think they've played Thursday games since 2000 - only began in 2006 with a limited schedule. Obviously the sample for MNF could go much farther.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thursday_Night_Football

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/63185200/thursday-night-football-in-the-national-football-league-isnt-always-popular

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/61721290

 

[jandyt]

The study I saw covered games since 2000 and scoring was down 1.1 points on Thursday which is about 2.5% or not very much. But QB, TE, and WR performance was down more significantly while RB scoring was actually slightly up on Thursday.

Not trying to be picky, but I don't think they've played Thursday games since 2000 - only began in 2006 with a limited schedule. Obviously the sample for MNF could go much farther.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thursday_Night_Football

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/63185200/thursday-night-football-in-the-national-football-league-isnt-always-popular

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/61721290

I believe for the early years they just used the Thanksgivings games. Not sure as I didn't do the study just read it.

 

[Pantherz]

First glance thursday lineups:

Stafford

Morris

Gio

Percy

Wallace

Colston

Donnell

or

Stafford

Pthomas

Sproles

Harvin

Wallace

Colston

Graham

(too many Saints)

I was loaded up on Percy Harvin last week. Did his lack of usage not scare you a little?

 

[jandyt]

I like Harvin and Colston a lot this week although both didn't little or nothing last week.

 

[GulfTider]

Coming off a loss, Have to think Seattle go's off at home. Oak at NE could be one of those 100yd 2TD days for Ridley, or 1 fumble we'll meet you in the locker room after the game. Stafford/Calvin are the stack I seem to be liking

At TE N. Paul on FanDuel and Donnelly on DraftKings

 

[Joe T]

Thats weird. The fade has worked and worked well. Maybe its just a superstition? I thought someone had some hard data supporting it?

There are some good articles out there supporting the Thursday fade. The stats do back up the decreased fantasy points on Thursday night.

That said, I have a bit of a hard time believing it since the trend is unexplainable. I don't think anyone has put out a really good reason of why Thursday nights score 10% lower.

 

[NBAJAM97]

Is there any site that keeps track of Fanduels weekly player pricing? I could make spreadsheets myself if they don't but I think it be interesting to see the fluctuations in prices.

 

[karmarooster]

Thats weird. The fade has worked and worked well. Maybe its just a superstition? I thought someone had some hard data supporting it?

There are some good articles out there supporting the Thursday fade. The stats do back up the decreased fantasy points on Thursday night.

That said, I have a bit of a hard time believing it since the trend is unexplainable. I don't think anyone has put out a really good reason of why Thursday nights score 10% lower.

There's a good reason and it's explainable... the teams gets half the time they normally get to prepare for the game. Less time to install game-specific offenses, less time for injuries to heal.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Thats weird. The fade has worked and worked well. Maybe its just a superstition? I thought someone had some hard data supporting it?

There are some good articles out there supporting the Thursday fade. The stats do back up the decreased fantasy points on Thursday night.

That said, I have a bit of a hard time believing it since the trend is unexplainable. I don't think anyone has put out a really good reason of why Thursday nights score 10% lower.

There's a good reason and it's explainable... the teams gets half the time they normally get to prepare for the game. Less time to install game-specific offenses, less time for injuries to heal.

But isn't it half the time for game-specific defensive schemes and for defensive injuries to heal as well?

 

[karmarooster]

My sense is that defenses don't game plan week to week the same way that offenses do since they're more reactionary. The defense will practice its coverage when facing Manning or its contain when facing Kaepernick, but that's not quite the same as a team like the Patriots designing a suite of plays that change week to week. Of course not many offenses change game-script to the degree of the Patriots. .

Or, lower quality play on both sides favors the defense. There's some old theory that defenses are 'up to speed' earlier in the season more quickly than offenses, so kind of fits the theory. Nothing to prove that though.

There's also selection bias. Typically the SNF/MNF game features two of the top teams, which often have good offenses. MNF is your Denvers and New Englands, while Thursday night is typically reserved for Jaguars v. Texans. I actually watched that POS game last year on Thursday because of fantasy and daily fantasy.

 

[karmarooster]

First glance thursday lineups:

Stafford

Morris

Gio

Percy

Wallace

Colston

Donnell

or

Stafford

Pthomas

Sproles

Harvin

Wallace

Colston

Graham

(too many Saints)

I was loaded up on Percy Harvin last week. Did his lack of usage not scare you a little?

That was a bit concerning, but I didn't watch the game. He was targeted enough the first week, and with Denver coming to town, at home, I think he'll get his share of touches both rushing and receiving. In any case, revised this a bit:

Stafford

Morris

P. Thomas

Andre Johnson

Wallace

G.Tate

Graham

Just looking for a solid number targets/carries, not on the injury report, in not terrible matchups.