Fantasy Index (1 Viewer)

[Bob Magaw]

feel free to include other sources...

QB

- in romo's four years as a starter, only drew brees has averaged more than his 269 yards on a per game basis... only three QBs have averaged more TDs (didn't say which ones)...

edit/add - i am encouraged that in romo's one FULL season with an elite WR (TO in his prime in 2007), he tossed 36 TDs... in 2010, he gets miles austin for a full season... rookie WRs rarely make a big impact, but bryant could be the rare, several times a decade talent (like larry fitzgerald and calvin johnson) to be an exception... IF he does, romo looks primed for a huge season...

- matthew stafford - in his 10 starts, his 238 total yards average and 15 combined TDs, was the best rookie year on a per game basis (for a QB starting at least half the season) in over a decade... by peyton manning...

edit/add - and the lions look to have surrounded him and calvin johnson with a vastly superior supporting cast in the passing attack, with burleson, scheffler & best...

- aaron rodgers - his nine rushing TDs in past two years were more than the other top 8 QBs (in index rankings) COMBINED.

- matt schaub - in many scoring systems, his combined per game numbers over past two years are 3rd best... he only has 24 passing TDs

in his past 22 starts (maybe HOU prefers to run it in?)... yet was most effective passer in the league from inside the 10 yard line in 2009, converting 14 of 30 attempts into TDs...

RB

- MJD - inside the 5 yard line, he handled the ball on 21 of 24 rushing attempts in 2009, the highest ratio in the league... he has been uneven converting goal line opps over his career, though... 8 of 9 at goal line in 2008, but in 2007 and 2009, he was a combined 6 of 22 inside the two yard line...

- frank gore - his 6,653 combined rushing/receiving yards most of any player since 2006... he had just 23 TDs in 45 games in the three seasons prior to last year... but he scored 13 in 14 games last year, and all but one of SFs rushing TDs while healthy...

edit/add - SF looks like an ascendant team... improving OL, skill position weapons (notably davis and crabtree) and defense...

- deangelo williams... two years in a row, deangelo has over 1,000 rushing yards while averaging over 5.0 yards per carry... since the 16 game schedule in '78, only six backs have done that (faulk and sanders twice each)...

- jamaal charles - after week 10, he scored 9 TDs and had 968 rushing yards, averaging 6.0 yards per carry... in the past 40 years, only OJ simpson and barry sanders bested that (in their 2,000 yard seasons)...

- felix jones - his 6.5 yards per carry since 2008 leads the NFL...

edit/add - doen't qualify by minimum number of carries...

WR

- roddy white - only dre johnson has more than his 2,535 receiving yards in past two years (also 173 receptions and 18 TDs in that span)...

- miles austin - once he was inserted into the starting lineup week five, he averaged 103 receiving yards, and had 10 TDs in 12 games... in past decade, only two WRs have put up better per game numbers... randy moss (twice) & TO... broken down further, though... averaged 22.7 yards per catch in first eight games (just four starts)... than 12.7 in the last 10 (including two playoff games)...

- calvin johnson - despite being the biggest starting WR in the league, 5 of his 17 TDs since 2008 went for 40+ yards...

- greg jennings - his 16.5 yards per catch average since 2007 is 2nd in the league (vince jackson #1)... scoring-wise, though, he had 9 of packers 28 TD reception in 2008, and just 5 of 34 last year...

- steve smith (giants) - 4th most targeted WR (after welker, dre & roddy white)... he caught 68% of the passes directed towards him, also 4th best among the 29 WRs with 100+ targets...

- hakeem nicks - the only WR in the league to have a 25+ yard reception in six straight games...

edit/add - and he was playing an a broken toe...

- jeremy maclin - in the final 14 games last year, he had a 56-54 edge over desean jackson in receptions (jackson 8-5 in TD receptions, though... plus jackson has 1 rushing TD and a couple ST)...

- MSW - in his first eight games, he averaged 87 yards and had 6 TDs (top 5 numbers)... but in the final six games (what happened to the other two? injury? statistical gerrymandering?), he slipped to a feeble 29 receiving yards with just 1 TD.

- pierre garcon - in the colts final seven meaningful games, garcon had more receptions than reggie wayne and dallas clark... in the AFC championship game, his box score was 11-151-1...

- robert meachem - in the final nine regular season games, he had three more receptions and 5 TDs more than colston... though once lance moore returned in playoffs, only four receptions for 25 yards COMBINED in three games...

- jabar gaffney - in last two games last year... 21-282-2...

- devin thomas - just missed nicks, had a 25+ yard reception in five straight games last season...

- austin collie - last 16 games (including playoffs)... 71-851-9...

- malcolm floyd - didn't score a TD in any of the 11 games he started after chris chambers was released...

TE

- jermichael finley - in his final eight games, was on a 1,000 yard pace...

- jason witten - his 1,042 yard per season average since 2007 most among TEs... scored 7 TDs in 2007, but just seven combined in 2006, 2008 & 2009...

- own daniels - if he hadn't been hurt and (improbably) maintained his torrid pre-injury pace, he would have had 1,136 yards and 11 TDs in 2009...

- dustin keller - in playoffs, he was 12-181-3

edit/add - that would project to about 64-960-16... crazy proration, but he could definitely be an ascendant player...

chris cooley - in past five years, only three TEs have more yards, and only four have caught more TDs...

 

[werdnoynek]

interesting stuff. thanks for posting.

 

[cobalt_27]

- felix jones - his 6.5 yards per carry since 2008 leads the NFL...

Switz thinks he's the greatest NFL RB ever.

 

[Cookiemonster]

- aaron rodgers - his nine rushing TDs in past two years were more than the other top 8 QBs (in index rankings) COMBINED.

Played against him in JC. We couldn't get our hands on him once and he was throwing 40 yard darts while running.

 

[Steed]

Fantasy Index is famous for these kind of stats. That's why I buy them every year.

 

[Black]

Fantasy Index is famous for these kind of stats. That's why I buy them every year.

Is this from the Fantasy Index magazine that just came out?

 

[Steed]

Fantasy Index is famous for these kind of stats. That's why I buy them every year.

Is this from the Fantasy Index magazine that just came out?

Yes sir. I particularly like their expert draft and comments that follow.

 

[Black]

Fantasy Index is famous for these kind of stats. That's why I buy them every year.

Is this from the Fantasy Index magazine that just came out?

Yes sir. I particularly like their expert draft and comments that follow.

Guess I gotta buy it, since there's no FBG print this year...pretty bummed about that.

 

[The Kansas Comet]

feel free to include other sources...- MSW - in his first eight games, he averaged 87 yards and had 6 TDs (top 5 numbers)... but in the final six games (what happened to the other two? injury? statistical gerrymandering?), he slipped to a feeble 29 receiving yards with just 1 TD.

He had no stats in the first game of the season (he did play in that game and was targeted once) and was suspended for the Jags Week 5 game versus Seattle. Perhaps that is why they give stats for 14 games. Though I think not including his Week 1 performance in those numbers (and not mentioning it) is kind of rigging the stats a bit. It could be they just looked up the game logs at pro-football-reference.com and got the stats from there, as Game 1 isn't listed for MSW's game log for 2009, though going by the play-by-play, you can see he did participate in the game.

 

[Tyrion]

feel free to include other sources...- MSW - in his first eight games, he averaged 87 yards and had 6 TDs (top 5 numbers)... but in the final six games (what happened to the other two? injury? statistical gerrymandering?), he slipped to a feeble 29 receiving yards with just 1 TD.

He had no stats in the first game of the season (he did play in that game and was targeted once) and was suspended for the Jags Week 5 game versus Seattle. Perhaps that is why they give stats for 14 games. Though I think not including his Week 1 performance in those numbers (and not mentioning it) is kind of rigging the stats a bit. It could be they just looked up the game logs at pro-football-reference.com and got the stats from there, as Game 1 isn't listed for MSW's game log for 2009, though going by the play-by-play, you can see he did participate in the game.

That first game was just David Garrard being himself.

 

[Creed Bratton]

feel free to include other sources...- MSW - in his first eight games, he averaged 87 yards and had 6 TDs (top 5 numbers)... but in the final six games (what happened to the other two? injury? statistical gerrymandering?), he slipped to a feeble 29 receiving yards with just 1 TD.

He had no stats in the first game of the season (he did play in that game and was targeted once) and was suspended for the Jags Week 5 game versus Seattle. Perhaps that is why they give stats for 14 games. Though I think not including his Week 1 performance in those numbers (and not mentioning it) is kind of rigging the stats a bit. It could be they just looked up the game logs at pro-football-reference.com and got the stats from there, as Game 1 isn't listed for MSW's game log for 2009, though going by the play-by-play, you can see he did participate in the game.

He did play in Week 1 but wasn't named the starter because of a minor preseason injury. There's no point in looking at his numbers to see how effective he was when he barely played any snaps in the first week, so I don't think it's rigging the stats to make him seem better than he actually was. It'd be like criticizing Miles Austin or Rashard Mendenhall for poor stats the first month of the season, since I think it's safe to assume we're more interested in their stats and performance last year after they got the starting job.

 

[Tar Heel Boy]

Really kicking myself for passing up on Romo and taking Schaub. We had our draft about a month ago and looking back on it I really thought about that pick and went with Schaub in the end. Between that pick and taking MSW over Crabtree that might make the difference in a winning team or not. I read the same stats in Fantasy Index yesterday and will definitely take that into account for my remaining drafts. This is the only magazine I buy every year.

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

Really kicking myself for passing up on Romo and taking Schaub. We had our draft about a month ago and looking back on it I really thought about that pick and went with Schaub in the end. Between that pick and taking MSW over Crabtree that might make the difference in a winning team or not. I read the same stats in Fantasy Index yesterday and will definitely take that into account for my remaining drafts. This is the only magazine I buy every year.

You're being too hard on yourself. I'm targeting either guy assuming Brees, Manning and Rogers are gone. You can blindfold me and point me in either direction.Oh yeah and FFI and this board are my 1-2 punch!

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

- pierre garcon - in the colts final seven meaningful games, garcon had more receptions than reggie wayne and dallas clark...

No idea why this fact doesn't get more play.

 

[Creed Bratton]

Really kicking myself for passing up on Romo and taking Schaub. We had our draft about a month ago and looking back on it I really thought about that pick and went with Schaub in the end. Between that pick and taking MSW over Crabtree that might make the difference in a winning team or not. I read the same stats in Fantasy Index yesterday and will definitely take that into account for my remaining drafts. This is the only magazine I buy every year.

I'd take Romo and Crabtree over the other two but I don't think it's because the other two are more likely to bust. There's a slight chance that Romo or Crabtree just explode but all four are solid players in my opinion and wouldn't be unhappy drafting any of them.

 

[Creed Bratton]

- pierre garcon - in the colts final seven meaningful games, garcon had more receptions than reggie wayne and dallas clark...

No idea why this fact doesn't get more play.

I think it's an indicator he could have a breakout season, but at the same time, he still has to compete with Wayne and Clark for those targets and receptions. I don't think I would reach for Garcon instead of hoping he slips through the cracks, but the above stat does have me thinking twice about Wayne at his adp.

 

[Tar Heel Boy]

Really kicking myself for passing up on Romo and taking Schaub. We had our draft about a month ago and looking back on it I really thought about that pick and went with Schaub in the end. Between that pick and taking MSW over Crabtree that might make the difference in a winning team or not. I read the same stats in Fantasy Index yesterday and will definitely take that into account for my remaining drafts. This is the only magazine I buy every year.

I'd take Romo and Crabtree over the other two but I don't think it's because the other two are more likely to bust. There's a slight chance that Romo or Crabtree just explode but all four are solid players in my opinion and wouldn't be unhappy drafting any of them.

These were the only two picks I really believe I thought too much on. The bad thing, for me at least, is the times I've done it in the past it's usually backfired on me. Can't recall the year now, but I remember mulling over Stephen Davis or Ricky Williams and went with Davis and it backfired. Then another year I was debating between Jamal Lewis and a Pitt RB (can't recall who it was now, but it was before FWP and it wasn't Bettis). Anyway, passed up on Lewis and he had an incredible year. The one I'm more kicking myself over is Romo/Schaub. Guess I'm worried about Schaub getting injured. Just have to wait and see I suppose...

 

[Fodasme69]

Really kicking myself for passing up on Romo and taking Schaub. We had our draft about a month ago and looking back on it I really thought about that pick and went with Schaub in the end. Between that pick and taking MSW over Crabtree that might make the difference in a winning team or not. I read the same stats in Fantasy Index yesterday and will definitely take that into account for my remaining drafts. This is the only magazine I buy every year.

I'd take Romo and Crabtree over the other two but I don't think it's because the other two are more likely to bust. There's a slight chance that Romo or Crabtree just explode but all four are solid players in my opinion and wouldn't be unhappy drafting any of them.

These were the only two picks I really believe I thought too much on. The bad thing, for me at least, is the times I've done it in the past it's usually backfired on me. Can't recall the year now, but I remember mulling over Stephen Davis or Ricky Williams and went with Davis and it backfired. Then another year I was debating between Jamal Lewis and a Pitt RB (can't recall who it was now, but it was before FWP and it wasn't Bettis). Anyway, passed up on Lewis and he had an incredible year. The one I'm more kicking myself over is Romo/Schaub. Guess I'm worried about Schaub getting injured. Just have to wait and see I suppose...

Who is Famous Amos Zereoue!What do I win?

 

[-jb-]

Really kicking myself for passing up on Romo and taking Schaub. We had our draft about a month ago and looking back on it I really thought about that pick and went with Schaub in the end. Between that pick and taking MSW over Crabtree that might make the difference in a winning team or not. I read the same stats in Fantasy Index yesterday and will definitely take that into account for my remaining drafts. This is the only magazine I buy every year.

I'd take Romo and Crabtree over the other two but I don't think it's because the other two are more likely to bust. There's a slight chance that Romo or Crabtree just explode but all four are solid players in my opinion and wouldn't be unhappy drafting any of them.

These were the only two picks I really believe I thought too much on. The bad thing, for me at least, is the times I've done it in the past it's usually backfired on me. Can't recall the year now, but I remember mulling over Stephen Davis or Ricky Williams and went with Davis and it backfired. Then another year I was debating between Jamal Lewis and a Pitt RB (can't recall who it was now, but it was before FWP and it wasn't Bettis). Anyway, passed up on Lewis and he had an incredible year. The one I'm more kicking myself over is Romo/Schaub. Guess I'm worried about Schaub getting injured. Just have to wait and see I suppose...

Who is Famous Amos Zereoue!What do I win?

A Chrysler Cordoba

 

[3nOut]

Guess I'm worried about Schaub getting injured.

Why?

 

[redBourne]

Guess I'm worried about Schaub getting injured.

Why?

Because since he became a starting QB he's only completed a full season once. (1 full season in 3 years)Or the fact that when he gets injured during the season he averages 5 games missed...

We worry about all of our players getting injured, but those that show a tendency to get injured more often cause more concern. They didn't call Fred Taylor "Fragile Freddie" for nothing. (though I know he should have shed that tag a long time before it died I'm just throwing out the reference).

I have a feeling you were looking for this type of response to offer a rebuttal?

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

 

[3nOut]

Guess I'm worried about Schaub getting injured.

Why?

Because since he became a starting QB he's only completed a full season once. (1 full season in 3 years)Or the fact that when he gets injured during the season he averages 5 games missed...

We worry about all of our players getting injured, but those that show a tendency to get injured more often cause more concern. They didn't call Fred Taylor "Fragile Freddie" for nothing. (though I know he should have shed that tag a long time before it died I'm just throwing out the reference).

I have a feeling you were looking for this type of response to offer a rebuttal?

I think Schaub has been mislabled as injury-prone. It is not as if he has a recurring injury or he injures easily. ANY player receiving cheap shots like he received would have gotten injured.

 

[Bob Magaw]

schaub took his game to another level last year, has some excellent receiving weapons (especially if daniels is close to back physically), an improved OL and they could move the ball more consistently and have more scoring opps if the combination of foster/tate/slaton stabilizes the run game... slaton as third down back, foster & tate vying to be primary early down RB in RBBC (likely all three see time, but if foster can start 2010 where he left off in 2009, tate won't need to be rushed into action - tate had outstanding measurables at the combine... better than matthews and comparable to hardesty... but didn't flash as much wiggle or niftiness as hardesty... or even gerhart, for that matter)?

even if he missed a few games, schaub could be great value... as long as he plays, he could be as productive as anybody (including brees, manning, rodgers), but avail several rounds later than the top tier QBs, allowing stockpiling of RB/WR/TE in key early rounds...

taking a QB1 relatively later, it might be a recommended strategy to not get a low-end QB2 (and in case scaub goes down)... somebody that should be solid and dependable, but could have upside (like stafford or henne?)...

 

[Kenny Powers]

....

 

[vandyt]

schaub took his game to another level last year, has some excellent receiving weapons (especially if daniels is close to back physically), an improved OL and they could move the ball more consistently and have more scoring opps if the combination of foster/tate/slaton stabilizes the run game... slaton as third down back, foster & tate vying to be primary early down RB in RBBC (likely all three see time, but if foster can start 2010 where he left off in 2009, tate won't need to be rushed into action - tate had outstanding measurables at the combine... better than matthews and comparable to hardesty... but didn't flash as much wiggle or niftiness as hardesty... or even gerhart, for that matter)?even if he missed a few games, schaub could be great value... as long as he plays, he could be as productive as anybody (including brees, manning, rodgers), but avail several rounds later than the top tier QBs, allowing stockpiling of RB/WR/TE in key early rounds...taking a QB1 relatively later, it might be a recommended strategy to not get a low-end QB2 (and in case scaub goes down)... somebody that should be solid and dependable, but could have upside (like stafford or henne?)...

I'm surprised at how little mention the younger Shanny leaving HOU has gotten...I tend to view him as the real reason of their success.

 

[-jb-]

I'm surprised at how little mention the younger Shanny leaving HOU has gotten...I tend to view him as the real reason of their success.

Interesting. Are you downgrading HOU players because of it? I honestly haven't given that much thought until now.

 

[TWP]

schaub took his game to another level last year, has some excellent receiving weapons (especially if daniels is close to back physically), an improved OL and they could move the ball more consistently and have more scoring opps if the combination of foster/tate/slaton stabilizes the run game... slaton as third down back, foster & tate vying to be primary early down RB in RBBC (likely all three see time, but if foster can start 2010 where he left off in 2009, tate won't need to be rushed into action - tate had outstanding measurables at the combine... better than matthews and comparable to hardesty... but didn't flash as much wiggle or niftiness as hardesty... or even gerhart, for that matter)?even if he missed a few games, schaub could be great value... as long as he plays, he could be as productive as anybody (including brees, manning, rodgers), but avail several rounds later than the top tier QBs, allowing stockpiling of RB/WR/TE in key early rounds...taking a QB1 relatively later, it might be a recommended strategy to not get a low-end QB2 (and in case scaub goes down)... somebody that should be solid and dependable, but could have upside (like stafford or henne?)...

I'm surprised at how little mention the younger Shanny leaving HOU has gotten...I tend to view him as the real reason of their success.

Their play calling in the red zone was absolutely attrocious. Schaub-AJ was insta-TD every time and they rarely went to it, rather trying to pound it in and failing.

 

[Bob Magaw]

from team section (paraphrased)...

the anticipated shift to a more balanced attack and prominent run game for ARI actually began last year...

first seven games - 65 rushing yards per game (league low)

next eight games - 124 (10th best in the NFL - nearly double earlier average)

edit/add - the surge seems to roughly coincide with when wells began to figure more prominently...

i realize this adds up to 15 games, that is how it was written up...

sceptics will say that the second half numbers will be harder to replicate with leinart instead of warner...

* breaking down things further, also from index...

first eight games, hightower outscored wells 5-1

final eight games (not sure if playoffs included?), wells had 41 more carries, averaged 21 more yards per game & outscored hightower 6-3

they are predicting about 1,300 combined yards and 10 TDs for wells, if he avoids injury...

 

[vandyt]

schaub took his game to another level last year, has some excellent receiving weapons (especially if daniels is close to back physically), an improved OL and they could move the ball more consistently and have more scoring opps if the combination of foster/tate/slaton stabilizes the run game... slaton as third down back, foster & tate vying to be primary early down RB in RBBC (likely all three see time, but if foster can start 2010 where he left off in 2009, tate won't need to be rushed into action - tate had outstanding measurables at the combine... better than matthews and comparable to hardesty... but didn't flash as much wiggle or niftiness as hardesty... or even gerhart, for that matter)?

even if he missed a few games, schaub could be great value... as long as he plays, he could be as productive as anybody (including brees, manning, rodgers), but avail several rounds later than the top tier QBs, allowing stockpiling of RB/WR/TE in key early rounds...

taking a QB1 relatively later, it might be a recommended strategy to not get a low-end QB2 (and in case scaub goes down)... somebody that should be solid and dependable, but could have upside (like stafford or henne?)...

I'm surprised at how little mention the younger Shanny leaving HOU has gotten...I tend to view him as the real reason of their success.

You must be kidding. Or totally unfamiliar with the Texans.Shanahan ran Gary Kubiak's offense that he brought from his days as OC in Denver. Kubiak took him under his wing (Kyle was relatively young when he joined the Texans as a WR coach) and taught him the ropes. He was basically Kubiak Jr. Now Gary brought in his old OL coach from Denver to run his offense. The offense will stay the same until the day Kubiak quits or is fired.

Quite familiar with both. I saw a vastly different offense out there with Young Shanny calling the plays than before.

Offenses don't "stay the same" when the playcaller changes. To say its the "same offense" is pretty myopic, IMO.

 

[vandyt]

I'm surprised at how little mention the younger Shanny leaving HOU has gotten...I tend to view him as the real reason of their success.

Interesting. Are you downgrading HOU players because of it? I honestly haven't given that much thought until now.

I suppose I am...Schaub is the #8 QB on my board...AJ the #5 WR. Doesn't feel like much of a downgrade being ranked that highly, but I suppose it is given most people have them as #4 or 5 and #1, respectively.

 

[vandyt]

schaub took his game to another level last year, has some excellent receiving weapons (especially if daniels is close to back physically), an improved OL and they could move the ball more consistently and have more scoring opps if the combination of foster/tate/slaton stabilizes the run game... slaton as third down back, foster & tate vying to be primary early down RB in RBBC (likely all three see time, but if foster can start 2010 where he left off in 2009, tate won't need to be rushed into action - tate had outstanding measurables at the combine... better than matthews and comparable to hardesty... but didn't flash as much wiggle or niftiness as hardesty... or even gerhart, for that matter)?

even if he missed a few games, schaub could be great value... as long as he plays, he could be as productive as anybody (including brees, manning, rodgers), but avail several rounds later than the top tier QBs, allowing stockpiling of RB/WR/TE in key early rounds...

taking a QB1 relatively later, it might be a recommended strategy to not get a low-end QB2 (and in case scaub goes down)... somebody that should be solid and dependable, but could have upside (like stafford or henne?)...

I'm surprised at how little mention the younger Shanny leaving HOU has gotten...I tend to view him as the real reason of their success.

Their play calling in the red zone was absolutely attrocious. Schaub-AJ was insta-TD every time and they rarely went to it, rather trying to pound it in and failing.

Not sure what you were seeing...AJ was 2nd in the league in targets inside the redzone, and only finished tied for 7th in the NFL in receiving TDs.

The obvious explanation is that nothing is an "insta-TD" and you might just be thinking of some anecdotal examples, but its also possible that they became less successful through the year as teams realized they probably needed to double AJ on the fade route.

 

[TWP]

schaub took his game to another level last year, has some excellent receiving weapons (especially if daniels is close to back physically), an improved OL and they could move the ball more consistently and have more scoring opps if the combination of foster/tate/slaton stabilizes the run game... slaton as third down back, foster & tate vying to be primary early down RB in RBBC (likely all three see time, but if foster can start 2010 where he left off in 2009, tate won't need to be rushed into action - tate had outstanding measurables at the combine... better than matthews and comparable to hardesty... but didn't flash as much wiggle or niftiness as hardesty... or even gerhart, for that matter)?

even if he missed a few games, schaub could be great value... as long as he plays, he could be as productive as anybody (including brees, manning, rodgers), but avail several rounds later than the top tier QBs, allowing stockpiling of RB/WR/TE in key early rounds...

taking a QB1 relatively later, it might be a recommended strategy to not get a low-end QB2 (and in case scaub goes down)... somebody that should be solid and dependable, but could have upside (like stafford or henne?)...

I'm surprised at how little mention the younger Shanny leaving HOU has gotten...I tend to view him as the real reason of their success.

Their play calling in the red zone was absolutely attrocious. Schaub-AJ was insta-TD every time and they rarely went to it, rather trying to pound it in and failing.

Not sure what you were seeing...AJ was 2nd in the league in targets inside the redzone, and only finished tied for 7th in the NFL in receiving TDs.

The obvious explanation is that nothing is an "insta-TD" and you might just be thinking of some anecdotal examples, but its also possible that they became less successful through the year as teams realized they probably needed to double AJ on the fade route.

From within the 10 yard line last year, the Texans ran 70 plays. Of those 70 plays, 6 were passes to AJ. Their 40 rushing attempts netted 10 TDs. Yes, the 'insta-TD' comment was hyperbole. But given how good he is and how good Schaub is, and how bad the Texan RBs were, I would have expected something closer to the Colts situation where they had a 45/35 split pass/rush within the 10 (compared with Texans 30/40) and where Wayne saw 15 targets.