Zimm
Footballguy
I have heard from a few people that the ranking system seems to be a bit odd for this year, So i choose to look for myself and i think there has to be a few mistakes with some/most players. Here is the assessment:
QB: Matthew Stafford, Robert Griffin III
RB: Adrian Peterson, Felix Jones, DeMarco Murray, Roy Helu, Bilal Powell, Evan Royster, Trent Richardson
WR: Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Greg Little, Vincent Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Greg Salas, Michael Floyd, Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett
TD: Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers
Overview:
Let us say this as nicely as we can. This team is brutal. It is below average and/or too thin at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and receiver).
To make this team into a serious contender, you are going to need to be extremely active in trades and on the waiver wire. You esentially need to turn over significant parts of this roster. Last year running backs like Peyton Hillis, LeGarrette Blount, and Mike Tolbert all could be had dirt cheap at the draft. Additionally, wide receivers like Brandon Lloyd and Steve Johnson were available after a lot of the drafts. Quarterbacks like Michael Vick last season, Brett Favre in 2009, Matt Cassel in 2008, and Derek Anderson in 2007 could all be had cheap just after draft time. You are likely going to need to land many of this year's top waiver plays to make any significant noise, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.
Players we particularly like on this team include Felix Jones and the 49ers defense. We have both these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:
With great inseason management, we think you have about a 55 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 1 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 13 of 2011:
Demaryius Thomas vs. MIN: 144 receiving yards, 2 TD
Rob Gronkowski vs. IND: 64 receiving yards, 3 TD
Roy Helu vs. NYJ: 142 combined yards, 1 TD
A.J. Green vs. PIT: 87 receiving yards, 1 TD
QB Summary:
We have Matthew Stafford rated #8 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. We strongly recommend that you add a backup QB (we'll make some specific suggestions at the end of the report).
RB Summary:
While your lack of depth at the position concerns us, we do like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 2.3 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Adrian Peterson ranked at #3 and Felix Jones ranked 14th.
DeMarco Murray might be a bit of a reach at third RB, but we understand the desire to handcuff. Roy Helu is shaky as a fourth running back. Bilal Powell is a very weak fifth running back.
Because you're not particularly strong overall at the position, adding some depth here was a good idea. But we're not convinced Evan Royster is the right player for the job. Check the end of the report for some alternative suggestions.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
DeMarco Murray is ranked #7 by some of our writers, which would make him a great third running back and even a legitimate RB1. Jeff Haseley reasons, "In a four game stretch last year (all Dallas wins), DeMarco Murray had 434 yards rushing with 1 TD on 89 carries (4.8 YPC) and 20 receptions for 156 yards. In each of those games, Murray had at least 20 carries. In case you're wondering, that stretch did not include his 253-yard coming out party against the Rams. He showed last year that he can handle the load as the featured back, before a broken ankle in week 14 shut him down. Murray scored just 2 TDs last year and will have to score more if he is going to be a Top 10 RB. I would be surprised if he doesn't score at least 6 TDs. "
Roy Helu is ranked #16 by some of our writers, which would make him a great fourth running back and even a legitimate RB2. Jeff Tefertiller reasons, "The Redskins will run the ball and Helu is my bet to garner the most carries. He was productive in stretches last year and should improve in his first full offseason. Helu is a very good receiver and his presence will help the rookie quarterback. Helu is one of just a few running backs to catch at least 10 passes in a game - and that was as a rookie. Hightower is still hurt and not a viable option."
WR Summary:
We see all your starters at receiver as below average. Julio Jones is our #25 ranked receiver, A.J. Green is #26, and we have Greg Little 80th.
Vincent Brown is a very weak fourth receiver. Demaryius Thomas is also a liability at fifth receiver. Greg Salas is a very weak sixth receiver.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Julio Jones is ranked #3 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average first receiver. Heath Cummings reasons, "I think Jones surpasses Roddy White this year based on a couple of factors. For one, he's the complete package as a receiver entering his second year. White, on the other hand, enters his eigth season, generally the beginning of the downward trend for receivers. Couple those factors with the fact that White will still draw the number one corner (at least early in the year), and I think the recipe is there for Jones to lead the Falcons in receiving and finish in the top 5 league-wide."
Some of our staffers have A.J. Green as high as #3, which would make him a great second receiver and even a legitimate WR1. Jason Wood's take: "A.J. Green made the NFL transition look much easier than most wide receivers do. To say he's mature beyond his years would be an understatement, and history tells us that players of his caliber don't peak as rookies. Green could cement himself as one of the league's best receivers this year -- and should be a fantasy WR1 for many seasons to come."
Some members of our staff have Greg Little ranked as high as 30th, which would make him an above average third receiver. Mark Wimer defends his high ranking as follows: "Greg Little is a good, young, wide receiver, but he's got an unfortunate situation at quarterback on this team, and the Browns face three top-ten pass defenses in division. Ouch. "
Some of our staffers have Demaryius Thomas as high as #7, which would make him a great fifth receiver and even a legitimate WR1. Jeff Haseley's take: "There are two WRs that I can see making the jump to a Top 5 ranking that may not be expected to reach those heights. One is Brandon Marshall. The other is Demaryius Thomas. If Thomas can be a legit WR threat with Tim Tebow at QB, imagine what he can bring to the table with Peyton Manning."
Some members of our staff have Greg Salas ranked as high as 47th, which would make him a great sixth receiver and even a legitimate WR4. Mark Wimer defends his high ranking as follows: "Salas has upside potential from here if he is back to 100% healthy and if Sam Bradford regains his top form during 2012. Salas is a speculative fantasy pick but I've considered him for my bench in multiple fantasy drafts this year (sometimes I've landed him, sometimes not). Salas isn't a priority for me, but he's a guy I don't mind having on my wide receiver bench. "
TE Summary:
Rob Gronkowski should be above average as a starting tight end. We have him ranked sixth overall at the position. We don't see Martellus Bennett as an adequate second tight end. An upgrade here would be nice, but if Gronkowski holds up, it won't matter.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Rob Gronkowski as high as #1, which would make him an above average first tight end. Jason Wood's take: "Gronkowski had one of those years that almost defies logic. It's too easy to say "regression to the mean" because OF COURSE he's not going to match his 2011 magic. But even a fraction of that production makes Gronkowski the safest bet to be the top fantasy TE again. As long as he's healthy and Tom Brady is under center, Gronkowski is a must own player."
Defense Summary:
We think the Steelers are the #2 defense in the league, at about 1.0 points per game above average.
QB: Matthew Stafford, Robert Griffin III
RB: Adrian Peterson, Felix Jones, DeMarco Murray, Roy Helu, Bilal Powell, Evan Royster, Trent Richardson
WR: Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Greg Little, Vincent Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Greg Salas, Michael Floyd, Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett
TD: Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers
Overview:
Let us say this as nicely as we can. This team is brutal. It is below average and/or too thin at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and receiver).
To make this team into a serious contender, you are going to need to be extremely active in trades and on the waiver wire. You esentially need to turn over significant parts of this roster. Last year running backs like Peyton Hillis, LeGarrette Blount, and Mike Tolbert all could be had dirt cheap at the draft. Additionally, wide receivers like Brandon Lloyd and Steve Johnson were available after a lot of the drafts. Quarterbacks like Michael Vick last season, Brett Favre in 2009, Matt Cassel in 2008, and Derek Anderson in 2007 could all be had cheap just after draft time. You are likely going to need to land many of this year's top waiver plays to make any significant noise, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.
Players we particularly like on this team include Felix Jones and the 49ers defense. We have both these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:
With great inseason management, we think you have about a 55 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 1 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 13 of 2011:
Demaryius Thomas vs. MIN: 144 receiving yards, 2 TD
Rob Gronkowski vs. IND: 64 receiving yards, 3 TD
Roy Helu vs. NYJ: 142 combined yards, 1 TD
A.J. Green vs. PIT: 87 receiving yards, 1 TD
QB Summary:
We have Matthew Stafford rated #8 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. We strongly recommend that you add a backup QB (we'll make some specific suggestions at the end of the report).
RB Summary:
While your lack of depth at the position concerns us, we do like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 2.3 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Adrian Peterson ranked at #3 and Felix Jones ranked 14th.
DeMarco Murray might be a bit of a reach at third RB, but we understand the desire to handcuff. Roy Helu is shaky as a fourth running back. Bilal Powell is a very weak fifth running back.
Because you're not particularly strong overall at the position, adding some depth here was a good idea. But we're not convinced Evan Royster is the right player for the job. Check the end of the report for some alternative suggestions.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
DeMarco Murray is ranked #7 by some of our writers, which would make him a great third running back and even a legitimate RB1. Jeff Haseley reasons, "In a four game stretch last year (all Dallas wins), DeMarco Murray had 434 yards rushing with 1 TD on 89 carries (4.8 YPC) and 20 receptions for 156 yards. In each of those games, Murray had at least 20 carries. In case you're wondering, that stretch did not include his 253-yard coming out party against the Rams. He showed last year that he can handle the load as the featured back, before a broken ankle in week 14 shut him down. Murray scored just 2 TDs last year and will have to score more if he is going to be a Top 10 RB. I would be surprised if he doesn't score at least 6 TDs. "
Roy Helu is ranked #16 by some of our writers, which would make him a great fourth running back and even a legitimate RB2. Jeff Tefertiller reasons, "The Redskins will run the ball and Helu is my bet to garner the most carries. He was productive in stretches last year and should improve in his first full offseason. Helu is a very good receiver and his presence will help the rookie quarterback. Helu is one of just a few running backs to catch at least 10 passes in a game - and that was as a rookie. Hightower is still hurt and not a viable option."
WR Summary:
We see all your starters at receiver as below average. Julio Jones is our #25 ranked receiver, A.J. Green is #26, and we have Greg Little 80th.
Vincent Brown is a very weak fourth receiver. Demaryius Thomas is also a liability at fifth receiver. Greg Salas is a very weak sixth receiver.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Julio Jones is ranked #3 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average first receiver. Heath Cummings reasons, "I think Jones surpasses Roddy White this year based on a couple of factors. For one, he's the complete package as a receiver entering his second year. White, on the other hand, enters his eigth season, generally the beginning of the downward trend for receivers. Couple those factors with the fact that White will still draw the number one corner (at least early in the year), and I think the recipe is there for Jones to lead the Falcons in receiving and finish in the top 5 league-wide."
Some of our staffers have A.J. Green as high as #3, which would make him a great second receiver and even a legitimate WR1. Jason Wood's take: "A.J. Green made the NFL transition look much easier than most wide receivers do. To say he's mature beyond his years would be an understatement, and history tells us that players of his caliber don't peak as rookies. Green could cement himself as one of the league's best receivers this year -- and should be a fantasy WR1 for many seasons to come."
Some members of our staff have Greg Little ranked as high as 30th, which would make him an above average third receiver. Mark Wimer defends his high ranking as follows: "Greg Little is a good, young, wide receiver, but he's got an unfortunate situation at quarterback on this team, and the Browns face three top-ten pass defenses in division. Ouch. "
Some of our staffers have Demaryius Thomas as high as #7, which would make him a great fifth receiver and even a legitimate WR1. Jeff Haseley's take: "There are two WRs that I can see making the jump to a Top 5 ranking that may not be expected to reach those heights. One is Brandon Marshall. The other is Demaryius Thomas. If Thomas can be a legit WR threat with Tim Tebow at QB, imagine what he can bring to the table with Peyton Manning."
Some members of our staff have Greg Salas ranked as high as 47th, which would make him a great sixth receiver and even a legitimate WR4. Mark Wimer defends his high ranking as follows: "Salas has upside potential from here if he is back to 100% healthy and if Sam Bradford regains his top form during 2012. Salas is a speculative fantasy pick but I've considered him for my bench in multiple fantasy drafts this year (sometimes I've landed him, sometimes not). Salas isn't a priority for me, but he's a guy I don't mind having on my wide receiver bench. "
TE Summary:
Rob Gronkowski should be above average as a starting tight end. We have him ranked sixth overall at the position. We don't see Martellus Bennett as an adequate second tight end. An upgrade here would be nice, but if Gronkowski holds up, it won't matter.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Rob Gronkowski as high as #1, which would make him an above average first tight end. Jason Wood's take: "Gronkowski had one of those years that almost defies logic. It's too easy to say "regression to the mean" because OF COURSE he's not going to match his 2011 magic. But even a fraction of that production makes Gronkowski the safest bet to be the top fantasy TE again. As long as he's healthy and Tom Brady is under center, Gronkowski is a must own player."
Defense Summary:
We think the Steelers are the #2 defense in the league, at about 1.0 points per game above average.
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