What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Feedback - Footballguys Business - Handling Bad Luck/Wrong Advice? (1 Viewer)

One thing that might alleviate the "I played QB5 instead of QB10 and it cost me the win because QB10 scored more points" complaint is to not put them in a straight ranking order becuase that's not really what it is. I am guessing your order is there because you have to put them in some order but you don't really believe that will be the final outcome. It's as close as you can be based on projections etc but I don't see it as a true order.

Rather than ranking them.......tier them. I think there is more value in that and it is better for a "guarantee". For the above example, you could have QB5-10 in the same tier essentially meaning any of those 6 QB's could be QB5 just as any could be QB10 but you are confident they will be in that tier in some order. Now if you are continually having Tier 3 QB's in Tier 1 or vice versa then that is a problem and something that should be able to be tracked and something that if your experts are doing there job should be right more often than a straight rankings order.

Again, you will likely not really appease the complainer if he doesn't truly understand the info you are presenting and what it represents. Not sure how you get around that.
 
In regards to rankings, I feel like the commentary on rankings is much more important than the rankings themselves.
I think this is an incredible point and something I have said many times. Seeing the rationale and discussing why things are ranked a certain way is much more informative and valuable than just a list of names.

The threads that @travdogg puts out in the SP throughout the season is much more valuable to me than just a rankings list. I think the roundtable discussions in the subscription is ok at doing this but sometimes it's just 4 writers giving their thoughts (with some overlap) rather than an actual roundtable discussion with back and forth comments and rebuttals. I think this feature is close to being really good but sometimes fails to get there.
 
For me, this is really simple. If you want to be in the rankings business, you are offering a credible opinion. The credible part means logically justifiable, explainable, defendable. The opinion part by design means it is subjective and often wrong - most rational folks understand this. For FBG, your rankings are not credible. The number of obvious goofs when various staffers include players who are hurt or don't include players who are returning from an injury was too many to count, once again, this year. The fact that obvious things are missed gives very little reason to believe the projections. I've stopped using weekly FBG rankings other than tie-breakers for other rankings I use and sanity checks on waiver availability. I still subscribe because I see value in other places that others do not offer, yet... FBG used to have an edge in rankings and projections - it doesn't exist anymore. If your customers subscribe for this reason, they should be unhappy with the quality.
 
I'm not reading through all of these responses to see if someone captured my feelings..........which somewhat encapsulates why I subscribe. Its not just the weekly rankings for me. it's the contests, the draft prep, updates on what happened sunday, etc. I simply don't have the time or desire to do all that research. I do like winning but I'm not gonna do all that work to do it. So for me it's a convenience that is a bit of a luxury that makes my life easier. I think its similar to hiring a housecleaner to come in once a month. Could I do it the cleaning myself? yes but I don't want to.

Having said that, i don't expect perfection. I can see that in the league dominator, there isn't even consensus among your experts each week. I use all that in-season stuff as a reality check, more or less. but I make the call based on my own thoughts. And sometimes I just like certain players.

I really do enjoy the contests though, I construct my team with my sons, at least an early iteration of it and like following along. You get almost 10,000 people participating in that! hope your business sense is noting the significance of those numbers!

I'd like to see another contest - maybe a last man standing survivor contest too.

Loss of the contests would be an inflection point for me. Assuming you continue to put out well researched info and advice.

Not expecting perfection - I Am expecting a well rounded season long quality football experience and materials

Thank you. The contests are fun for sure. We did a bonus thing this year for Shark Pool people who posted their lineups and made the top 250 and 6 people from here made it. That's awesome.

Stay tuned for a post-season contest we'll do for subscribers as well.
 
One thing that might alleviate the "I played QB5 instead of QB10 and it cost me the win because QB10 scored more points" complaint is to not put them in a straight ranking order becuase that's not really what it is. I am guessing your order is there because you have to put them in some order but you don't really believe that will be the final outcome. It's as close as you can be based on projections etc but I don't see it as a true order.

Rather than ranking them.......tier them. I think there is more value in that and it is better for a "guarantee". For the above example, you could have QB5-10 in the same tier essentially meaning any of those 6 QB's could be QB5 just as any could be QB10 but you are confident they will be in that tier in some order. Now if you are continually having Tier 3 QB's in Tier 1 or vice versa then that is a problem and something that should be able to be tracked and something that if your experts are doing there job should be right more often than a straight rankings order.

Again, you will likely not really appease the complainer if he doesn't truly understand the info you are presenting and what it represents. Not sure how you get around that.

Thanks. I hear you for sure. But the ranking is needed as at some point, people have to make a decision of this player or that player. When it's Mahomes and Zach Wilson, it's easy. When it's Mahomes and Brock Purdy, it's much tougher. The reader at some point has to make a call. And they look to us to make the call.
 
Thanks. I hear you for sure. But the ranking is needed as at some point, people have to make a decision of this player or that player. When it's Mahomes and Zach Wilson, it's easy. When it's Mahomes and Brock Purdy, it's much tougher. The reader at some point has to make a call. And they look to us to make the call.
But by tiering them you are making the call. You are saying these 4 or 5 guys all have the potential to finish QBX to QBX+4. There is variance. If you (as the business owner) want to give a better definition of your "call" that is what a tier system will do. Trying to hit a strict ranking in FF is foolish if you are trying to come up with accuracy numbers. It is much more reasonable to hit a range because really that is what you are able to predict. At least that is what I believe.

I understand mindless people will want a strict ranking and have someone tell them exactly who to play because they want someone to blame. But that isn't productive for anyone.....especially you. It's impossible to predict that and shouldn't be expectation.

You are likely right though that Carl Customer wants you to tell them what to do and require a strict rank to tell them that. It just doesn't make sense to me because every player has a realistic range of outcomes and that is really what you are trying to predict.
 
I do not currently subscribe to any service. I was a subscriber at Footballguys for several years. I dabbled with a couple of others. I won't name the other sites because it does not matter. I decided I got to the point where I could do my work. I could rank players. I can do waiver wire stuff. And really if you know where to look you can get a ton of free advice that works as well as paid subscriptions. If I was to pay for a subscription again it would be just for entertainment purposes. Just because I enjoy the site and the articles. The subscriber contest was a lot of fun. The market is changing and sites will change with it. I think some will dive into the gambling aspect of the sport of Fantasy Football if you will. If you can figure out the next move in the sport then I think you can thrive. I have been doing fantasy sports for over 25 years so I want to be entertained now. I decided I would do the work of a subscription myself so for one I have no one to blame but myself when I get it wrong. I also get to raise the trophy and know I won the "ship" on my work. I just want to be entertained.
 
One thing that might alleviate the "I played QB5 instead of QB10 and it cost me the win because QB10 scored more points" complaint is to not put them in a straight ranking order becuase that's not really what it is. I am guessing your order is there because you have to put them in some order but you don't really believe that will be the final outcome. It's as close as you can be based on projections etc but I don't see it as a true order.

Rather than ranking them.......tier them. I think there is more value in that and it is better for a "guarantee". For the above example, you could have QB5-10 in the same tier essentially meaning any of those 6 QB's could be QB5 just as any could be QB10 but you are confident they will be in that tier in some order. Now if you are continually having Tier 3 QB's in Tier 1 or vice versa then that is a problem and something that should be able to be tracked and something that if your experts are doing there job should be right more often than a straight rankings order.

Again, you will likely not really appease the complainer if he doesn't truly understand the info you are presenting and what it represents. Not sure how you get around that.

Thanks. I hear you for sure. But the ranking is needed as at some point, people have to make a decision of this player or that player. When it's Mahomes and Zach Wilson, it's easy. When it's Mahomes and Brock Purdy, it's much tougher. The reader at some point has to make a call. And they look to us to make the call.
I was also going to suggest tiers.

The problem is that when you say Mahomes will score 23.5 and Purdy will score 23.2, you’ve locked yourself into an impossible position. They are both going to have good weeks. They both have good matchups. Whatever. No one can predict who will score 0.3 points more.

I’d like to see something like:
These QB’s are in line for a great week.
These QB’s are in line for a good week.
These QB’s are in line for a bad week.
And so on. With rationale.

At some point people can read the rationale and make their decision if it’s close.
 
One thing that might alleviate the "I played QB5 instead of QB10 and it cost me the win because QB10 scored more points" complaint is to not put them in a straight ranking order becuase that's not really what it is. I am guessing your order is there because you have to put them in some order but you don't really believe that will be the final outcome. It's as close as you can be based on projections etc but I don't see it as a true order.

Rather than ranking them.......tier them. I think there is more value in that and it is better for a "guarantee". For the above example, you could have QB5-10 in the same tier essentially meaning any of those 6 QB's could be QB5 just as any could be QB10 but you are confident they will be in that tier in some order. Now if you are continually having Tier 3 QB's in Tier 1 or vice versa then that is a problem and something that should be able to be tracked and something that if your experts are doing there job should be right more often than a straight rankings order.

Again, you will likely not really appease the complainer if he doesn't truly understand the info you are presenting and what it represents. Not sure how you get around that.

Thanks. I hear you for sure. But the ranking is needed as at some point, people have to make a decision of this player or that player. When it's Mahomes and Zach Wilson, it's easy. When it's Mahomes and Brock Purdy, it's much tougher. The reader at some point has to make a call. And they look to us to make the call.
It's a percentage of a predictive outcome. No Fantasy Football site can get the ranking of players perfect. The reader has to make a decision based on information provided but the final decision is made by the reader and the outcome is determined on the field. The goal should be to reduce the variables in the rankings. There are so many variables to any outcome. The weather that was supposed to hit does not hit and player x does a lot better than expected or the opposite happens bad weather hits and your player now is dealing with that. How can you predict that? Or a wide receiver has his QB get hurt and all of a sudden the outcome changes. I have found that equal players of equal talent making decisions can be as simple as weather. The opposing defense. Are they in a dome? Is the coaching staff aggressive or are they more passive? Some coaches go for more on 4th downs than others. The fact that one player has an aggressive play caller can give you 5 more plays a game you would not get with another play caller. This is small stuff but this small stuff can win games and determine rankings for me. What does Vegas think? What is the over/under? The list can go on and on. The point on rankings is sooner or later you have to rank the player. Just like sooner or later the fantasy customer has to decide on who to put in their lineup.
 
One thing that might alleviate the "I played QB5 instead of QB10 and it cost me the win because QB10 scored more points" complaint is to not put them in a straight ranking order becuase that's not really what it is. I am guessing your order is there because you have to put them in some order but you don't really believe that will be the final outcome. It's as close as you can be based on projections etc but I don't see it as a true order.

Rather than ranking them.......tier them. I think there is more value in that and it is better for a "guarantee". For the above example, you could have QB5-10 in the same tier essentially meaning any of those 6 QB's could be QB5 just as any could be QB10 but you are confident they will be in that tier in some order. Now if you are continually having Tier 3 QB's in Tier 1 or vice versa then that is a problem and something that should be able to be tracked and something that if your experts are doing there job should be right more often than a straight rankings order.

Again, you will likely not really appease the complainer if he doesn't truly understand the info you are presenting and what it represents. Not sure how you get around that.

Thanks. I hear you for sure. But the ranking is needed as at some point, people have to make a decision of this player or that player. When it's Mahomes and Zach Wilson, it's easy. When it's Mahomes and Brock Purdy, it's much tougher. The reader at some point has to make a call. And they look to us to make the call.
I was also going to suggest tiers.

The problem is that when you say Mahomes will score 23.5 and Purdy will score 23.2, you’ve locked yourself into an impossible position. They are both going to have good weeks. They both have good matchups. Whatever. No one can predict who will score 0.3 points more.

I’d like to see something like:
These QB’s are in line for a great week.
These QB’s are in line for a good week.
These QB’s are in line for a bad week.
And so on. With rationale.

At some point people can read the rationale and make their decision if it’s close.
This doesn't work for DFS. I'm deep diving for that 3rd WR who's snap count is increasing or trying to figure out which NYG WR is most likely to post a respectable number.

Also what's the value of tiers telling me that Hurts and Dak are in line for a good week; Wilson and Geno for a good week; Young and Wilson a bad week. I already know that
 
One thing that might alleviate the "I played QB5 instead of QB10 and it cost me the win because QB10 scored more points" complaint is to not put them in a straight ranking order becuase that's not really what it is. I am guessing your order is there because you have to put them in some order but you don't really believe that will be the final outcome. It's as close as you can be based on projections etc but I don't see it as a true order.

Rather than ranking them.......tier them. I think there is more value in that and it is better for a "guarantee". For the above example, you could have QB5-10 in the same tier essentially meaning any of those 6 QB's could be QB5 just as any could be QB10 but you are confident they will be in that tier in some order. Now if you are continually having Tier 3 QB's in Tier 1 or vice versa then that is a problem and something that should be able to be tracked and something that if your experts are doing there job should be right more often than a straight rankings order.

Again, you will likely not really appease the complainer if he doesn't truly understand the info you are presenting and what it represents. Not sure how you get around that.

Thanks. I hear you for sure. But the ranking is needed as at some point, people have to make a decision of this player or that player. When it's Mahomes and Zach Wilson, it's easy. When it's Mahomes and Brock Purdy, it's much tougher. The reader at some point has to make a call. And they look to us to make the call.
I was also going to suggest tiers.

The problem is that when you say Mahomes will score 23.5 and Purdy will score 23.2, you’ve locked yourself into an impossible position. They are both going to have good weeks. They both have good matchups. Whatever. No one can predict who will score 0.3 points more.

I’d like to see something like:
These QB’s are in line for a great week.
These QB’s are in line for a good week.
These QB’s are in line for a bad week.
And so on. With rationale.

At some point people can read the rationale and make their decision if it’s close.
This doesn't work for DFS. I'm deep diving for that 3rd WR who's snap count is increasing or trying to figure out which NYG WR is most likely to post a respectable number.

Also what's the value of tiers telling me that Hurts and Dak are in line for a good week; Wilson and Geno for a good week; Young and Wilson a bad week. I already know that
Well no one can accurately predict that Mahomes will score 28.04 and Purdy will score 27.38. Why not say - these are who we think will be the top 5 QB’s this week? Within that tier you may say - we think Dak is going to go wild because of x, y, z. But to try to predict points and have 7 QB’s separated by 2 points is silly, IMO.

Edit: I just checked this week. There are 9 QBs projected between 18.19 and 19.97.

So 9 guys separated by 2 points. And lots at 17 also. It’s impossible to be accurate doing it that way.
 
Last edited:
One thing that might alleviate the "I played QB5 instead of QB10 and it cost me the win because QB10 scored more points" complaint is to not put them in a straight ranking order becuase that's not really what it is. I am guessing your order is there because you have to put them in some order but you don't really believe that will be the final outcome. It's as close as you can be based on projections etc but I don't see it as a true order.

Rather than ranking them.......tier them. I think there is more value in that and it is better for a "guarantee". For the above example, you could have QB5-10 in the same tier essentially meaning any of those 6 QB's could be QB5 just as any could be QB10 but you are confident they will be in that tier in some order. Now if you are continually having Tier 3 QB's in Tier 1 or vice versa then that is a problem and something that should be able to be tracked and something that if your experts are doing there job should be right more often than a straight rankings order.

Again, you will likely not really appease the complainer if he doesn't truly understand the info you are presenting and what it represents. Not sure how you get around that.

Thanks. I hear you for sure. But the ranking is needed as at some point, people have to make a decision of this player or that player. When it's Mahomes and Zach Wilson, it's easy. When it's Mahomes and Brock Purdy, it's much tougher. The reader at some point has to make a call. And they look to us to make the call.
I was also going to suggest tiers.

The problem is that when you say Mahomes will score 23.5 and Purdy will score 23.2, you’ve locked yourself into an impossible position. They are both going to have good weeks. They both have good matchups. Whatever. No one can predict who will score 0.3 points more.

I’d like to see something like:
These QB’s are in line for a great week.
These QB’s are in line for a good week.
These QB’s are in line for a bad week.
And so on. With rationale.

At some point people can read the rationale and make their decision if it’s close.
This doesn't work for DFS. I'm deep diving for that 3rd WR who's snap count is increasing or trying to figure out which NYG WR is most likely to post a respectable number.

Also what's the value of tiers telling me that Hurts and Dak are in line for a good week; Wilson and Geno for a good week; Young and Wilson a bad week. I already know that
Well no one can accurately predict that Mahomes will score 28.04 and Purdy will score 27.38. Why not say - these are who we think will be the top 5 QB’s this week? Within that tier you may say - we think Dak is going to go wild because of x, y, z. But to try to predict points and have 7 QB’s separated by 2 points is silly, IMO.

Edit: I just checked this week. There are 9 QBs projected between 18.19 and 19.97.

So 9 guys separated by 2 points. And lots at 17 also. It’s impossible to be accurate doing it that way.
Some of that is the fact that four guys are doing rankings. IN theory 19.6 for Hurts and 19.2 for LJax should translate into a percentage outcome that Hurts is the higher scorer. If Ljax is projected for 18.8 instead it's really measuring the likelihood of Hurts finishing higher increasing by a certain percent.
 
Joe, you're not in the business of getting QB5 ranked ahead of QB10 this week. You're in the business of getting QB5 ranked ahead of QB10 60% of the time (I made up this number so let's call it x% going forward).

1. You should strive to have a target of what x% is. That's the value that your trying to capture in this post (as opposed to providing entertainment/content which is also a core part of your business).
2. You should develop a method to track your performance towards target x%. It should be pretty straight forward for one of you data base gurus to develop a program to compare every projection each week to every other projection and score it as a hit or miss.
3. You should have a process to make corrections when you don't meet the target.

Now when you you get the complaint from the customer you can send a canned response saying...

"Sorry Mr. BassNBrew that our projections impacted your fantasy result this week. Projecting player stats involves many variable and some randomness. At footballguys our goal is to be accurate x% of the time. By being accurate x% of the time the average customer should see an improvement in their win/loss record over the course of an entire season. This year we have exceeded x% at the RB, WR, D, and K positions and are on par for the TE position. We are below x% at the QB position. In an effort to improve this I have pulled together a team to review our QB projections and determine where we are missing the mark. After this review process the projection team will meet and implement changes to improve our QB projections to meet or exceed our goal of x% moving forward. Thank you for being a valuable customer. Without people like you we would be unable to accomplish our goal of providing the best fantasy football advice in the market."
I agree with this, wholeheartedly. For those of us having played for 25 years or so, you have to look at the long term pattern and ROI. Granular data sets, like the QB 5 v. QB 10 for one week is like splitting an atom- everyone gets plenty of those calls wrong; repeatedly.

Instead, the focus should be on aggregate data, using an ROI lens, over time. A customer (or even a message board poster like myself), comes here, year after year, because they see a depth and breadth of information and discussion that is well ahead of most other sources. The information, and as importantly, the “why” behind that information, is what drives the process. Results for individual players and individuals, year over year have wide variance. People come back and invest because they know over the long haul that the information here will create a profit over time.
 
One thing that might alleviate the "I played QB5 instead of QB10 and it cost me the win because QB10 scored more points" complaint is to not put them in a straight ranking order becuase that's not really what it is. I am guessing your order is there because you have to put them in some order but you don't really believe that will be the final outcome. It's as close as you can be based on projections etc but I don't see it as a true order.

Rather than ranking them.......tier them. I think there is more value in that and it is better for a "guarantee". For the above example, you could have QB5-10 in the same tier essentially meaning any of those 6 QB's could be QB5 just as any could be QB10 but you are confident they will be in that tier in some order. Now if you are continually having Tier 3 QB's in Tier 1 or vice versa then that is a problem and something that should be able to be tracked and something that if your experts are doing there job should be right more often than a straight rankings order.

Again, you will likely not really appease the complainer if he doesn't truly understand the info you are presenting and what it represents. Not sure how you get around that.

Thanks. I hear you for sure. But the ranking is needed as at some point, people have to make a decision of this player or that player. When it's Mahomes and Zach Wilson, it's easy. When it's Mahomes and Brock Purdy, it's much tougher. The reader at some point has to make a call. And they look to us to make the call.
I was also going to suggest tiers.

The problem is that when you say Mahomes will score 23.5 and Purdy will score 23.2, you’ve locked yourself into an impossible position. They are both going to have good weeks. They both have good matchups. Whatever. No one can predict who will score 0.3 points more.

I’d like to see something like:
These QB’s are in line for a great week.
These QB’s are in line for a good week.
These QB’s are in line for a bad week.
And so on. With rationale.

At some point people can read the rationale and make their decision if it’s close.
This doesn't work for DFS. I'm deep diving for that 3rd WR who's snap count is increasing or trying to figure out which NYG WR is most likely to post a respectable number.

Also what's the value of tiers telling me that Hurts and Dak are in line for a good week; Wilson and Geno for a good week; Young and Wilson a bad week. I already know that
Well no one can accurately predict that Mahomes will score 28.04 and Purdy will score 27.38. Why not say - these are who we think will be the top 5 QB’s this week? Within that tier you may say - we think Dak is going to go wild because of x, y, z. But to try to predict points and have 7 QB’s separated by 2 points is silly, IMO.

Edit: I just checked this week. There are 9 QBs projected between 18.19 and 19.97.

So 9 guys separated by 2 points. And lots at 17 also. It’s impossible to be accurate doing it that way.
:lmao:
 
It’s happened to all of us. Big deal. This is an inexact science and sh*t happens. I only care that there was a solid thesis behind the rankings. Specifically - ranking defenses against certain players based on recent trends vs year long stats. Don’t tell me matchups against the Broncos are great when you have the first 5 games factored in. Tell me that they have been much tougher the last 3 weeks. Or that a team is great against the pass but there is no mention of 2 injuries in the secondary. Rankings must be adjusted accordingly. As long as that insight is delivered I have no problem with the product.
 
He's not lucky enough to only have rational clients.
TBH no business is immune. Lemme tell ya, brother.

There are always difficult people. I’ve had several challenging customer service, let’s call them, “opportunities” over my 11+ years in business.

I’m fortunate in that of those dozens of opportunities, I’ve only had one who was somewhere south of rational. And even then I managed to customer service my way out of the line of fire and get to a place of de-escalation.

I can’t imagine what FBG has to deal with since they’re in the business of prognostication.
 
FF info is a tool in the box. The hammer doesn't build the house, it's one of the things I use to build the house.

Side note: big fan of Lammey and Bloom on YouTube
 
One thing that might alleviate the "I played QB5 instead of QB10 and it cost me the win because QB10 scored more points" complaint is to not put them in a straight ranking order becuase that's not really what it is. I am guessing your order is there because you have to put them in some order but you don't really believe that will be the final outcome. It's as close as you can be based on projections etc but I don't see it as a true order.

Rather than ranking them.......tier them. I think there is more value in that and it is better for a "guarantee". For the above example, you could have QB5-10 in the same tier essentially meaning any of those 6 QB's could be QB5 just as any could be QB10 but you are confident they will be in that tier in some order. Now if you are continually having Tier 3 QB's in Tier 1 or vice versa then that is a problem and something that should be able to be tracked and something that if your experts are doing there job should be right more often than a straight rankings order.

Again, you will likely not really appease the complainer if he doesn't truly understand the info you are presenting and what it represents. Not sure how you get around that.

Thanks. I hear you for sure. But the ranking is needed as at some point, people have to make a decision of this player or that player. When it's Mahomes and Zach Wilson, it's easy. When it's Mahomes and Brock Purdy, it's much tougher. The reader at some point has to make a call. And they look to us to make the call.
I was also going to suggest tiers.

The problem is that when you say Mahomes will score 23.5 and Purdy will score 23.2, you’ve locked yourself into an impossible position. They are both going to have good weeks. They both have good matchups. Whatever. No one can predict who will score 0.3 points more.

I’d like to see something like:
These QB’s are in line for a great week.
These QB’s are in line for a good week.
These QB’s are in line for a bad week.
And so on. With rationale.

At some point people can read the rationale and make their decision if it’s close.
This doesn't work for DFS. I'm deep diving for that 3rd WR who's snap count is increasing or trying to figure out which NYG WR is most likely to post a respectable number.

Also what's the value of tiers telling me that Hurts and Dak are in line for a good week; Wilson and Geno for a good week; Young and Wilson a bad week. I already know that
Well no one can accurately predict that Mahomes will score 28.04 and Purdy will score 27.38. Why not say - these are who we think will be the top 5 QB’s this week? Within that tier you may say - we think Dak is going to go wild because of x, y, z. But to try to predict points and have 7 QB’s separated by 2 points is silly, IMO.

Edit: I just checked this week. There are 9 QBs projected between 18.19 and 19.97.

So 9 guys separated by 2 points. And lots at 17 also. It’s impossible to be accurate doing it that way.
Some of that is the fact that four guys are doing rankings. IN theory 19.6 for Hurts and 19.2 for LJax should translate into a percentage outcome that Hurts is the higher scorer. If Ljax is projected for 18.8 instead it's really measuring the likelihood of Hurts finishing higher increasing by a certain percent.
But the point is that you have 9 guys ranked within 2 points. Thats one 20 yard scramble. No one will be accurate if the measurement is order of finish. It’s just too random. Especially when the 7th ranked QB is only projected for 2 more points than the 16th ranked QB. 7 to 16 seems like a huge spread. But less than 2 points?

It’s just too random to accurately predict order of finish.
 
I kind of remember a time when you got everything on FBG plus the RSP for around 30-40 bucks. Now you want 100 for everything sans the RSP

Not sure if it matters to you but our primary product covering everything for offensive only redraft leagues is our PRO plan at $47.88 per year. For IDP, Bestball, and Dynasty content, that's the next level that's $69.48 per year. It's certainly not for everyone, but we think it's an incredible value. We have way more content this year than we've ever had before. Plus, this week, we're donating 20% of all new subscription revenue to St. Jude Children's Hospital.

But this isn't about justifying FBG and I don't want to sidetrack us. I'm asking about how best to handle things when we get it wrong.

Hey Joe, was this changed/lowered at some point? This year was the first year in a decade I didn't subscribe, and for some reason I thought it was $79.99 if you wanted dynasty. Was that last year maybe? I probably would have subscribed at $68, so I guess I wasn't aware. Not that $10 is a big difference but it elevates it to another tier in my mind (the "nah, not this year" tier).

Honestly, I missed FBG emails/content so I'll probably reup next year. To chime in on this topic, I think the discussed "where we messed up" feature is a great idea.
 
The timing of the email could tell a lot. If it was immediately after the last game, when the dude was hot from losing a close matchup, it could just be an emotional thing. If he keeps at it after he has had a chance to cool down, then maybe he means it. Either way, if he was following your advice all season, I am sure you helped him more than you hurt him. Just like you do not lose a real football game because of one play (Toney), you do not lose a FF championship from one QB scoring 5 points more than another QB.
 
I just want to quote some snippets that I agree with, and bow out.

Maybe the education starts with a focus on what you really offer: Time-saving data analysis, a diversity of opinions with a proven track record, and a wealth of information you'd have to spend a lot of time to track down yourself.

I do think FBG is SO much more than just rankings. And I would really emphasize the value of the other stuff.

I feel like the commentary on rankings is much more important than the rankings themselves.

The threads that @travdogg puts out in the SP throughout the season is much more valuable to me than just a rankings list.
 
One thing that might alleviate the "I played QB5 instead of QB10 and it cost me the win because QB10 scored more points" complaint is to not put them in a straight ranking order becuase that's not really what it is. I am guessing your order is there because you have to put them in some order but you don't really believe that will be the final outcome. It's as close as you can be based on projections etc but I don't see it as a true order.

Rather than ranking them.......tier them. I think there is more value in that and it is better for a "guarantee". For the above example, you could have QB5-10 in the same tier essentially meaning any of those 6 QB's could be QB5 just as any could be QB10 but you are confident they will be in that tier in some order. Now if you are continually having Tier 3 QB's in Tier 1 or vice versa then that is a problem and something that should be able to be tracked and something that if your experts are doing there job should be right more often than a straight rankings order.

Again, you will likely not really appease the complainer if he doesn't truly understand the info you are presenting and what it represents. Not sure how you get around that.

Thanks. I hear you for sure. But the ranking is needed as at some point, people have to make a decision of this player or that player. When it's Mahomes and Zach Wilson, it's easy. When it's Mahomes and Brock Purdy, it's much tougher. The reader at some point has to make a call. And they look to us to make the call.
I was also going to suggest tiers.

The problem is that when you say Mahomes will score 23.5 and Purdy will score 23.2, you’ve locked yourself into an impossible position. They are both going to have good weeks. They both have good matchups. Whatever. No one can predict who will score 0.3 points more.

I’d like to see something like:
These QB’s are in line for a great week.
These QB’s are in line for a good week.
These QB’s are in line for a bad week.
And so on. With rationale.

At some point people can read the rationale and make their decision if it’s close.
This doesn't work for DFS. I'm deep diving for that 3rd WR who's snap count is increasing or trying to figure out which NYG WR is most likely to post a respectable number.

Also what's the value of tiers telling me that Hurts and Dak are in line for a good week; Wilson and Geno for a good week; Young and Wilson a bad week. I already know that
Well no one can accurately predict that Mahomes will score 28.04 and Purdy will score 27.38. Why not say - these are who we think will be the top 5 QB’s this week? Within that tier you may say - we think Dak is going to go wild because of x, y, z. But to try to predict points and have 7 QB’s separated by 2 points is silly, IMO.

Edit: I just checked this week. There are 9 QBs projected between 18.19 and 19.97.

So 9 guys separated by 2 points. And lots at 17 also. It’s impossible to be accurate doing it that way.
Some of that is the fact that four guys are doing rankings. IN theory 19.6 for Hurts and 19.2 for LJax should translate into a percentage outcome that Hurts is the higher scorer. If Ljax is projected for 18.8 instead it's really measuring the likelihood of Hurts finishing higher increasing by a certain percent.
But the point is that you have 9 guys ranked within 2 points. Thats one 20 yard scramble. No one will be accurate if the measurement is order of finish. It’s just too random. Especially when the 7th ranked QB is only projected for 2 more points than the 16th ranked QB. 7 to 16 seems like a huge spread. But less than 2 points?

It’s just too random to accurately predict order of finish.
While you are correct on any one event, over a season it may be possible to get these predictions right 60% of the time and that makes the game less random. Any given poker hand is random but good players win if the time period is long enough.

I can tell you from personal experience, dfs tournies often come down to Demarcus Robinson and AJ Brown vs. Swift and Rams defense. FBG saying Brown and Swift are great plays and Rams and Robinson are bad plays doesn't help me one bit. I need opinions via projections to make that decision. Drawing a line in the sand with numbers is the only way to accomplish that.
 
Man this is 75% luck. Let’s be real. If you’re trying to guess between qb 5 and 10 or 7 and 12 you are just picking nits. If somebody is complaining about it refund their money and tell them to touch grass.
 
Joe, serious question - I believe your lowest paid yearly subscription includes both the yearly and post-season subscriber contests, right? If so, what percentage of them submit entries?
 
I heard a caller on one of the XM fantasy shows Monday go after a host over bad advice. Of course these days, it’s your fault and not mine. As someone above mentioned above, it’s how people sell the info and expectations. Footballguys job is to get the info out in a timely manner so the consumer can make the most informed decision.
 
People often use the web to affirm their beliefs.
If JB is the only one on a page with 30 staff picks and the user went with JB, he knew risks were high with his choice.

If JB agrees with half. User has two choices.

I can go on and on here. It's a choice.

I don't much like a FF writer that is often wrong. If FBG were to have such a person (doubt) then he needs some training and revisiting with a site veteran.

Ooh one more choice. JB is the only one of thirty and user wins his league looking brilliant. Risk reward
 
It’s the “Customer is always right” mantra. Complain and you get something. Let them walk. Focus on recruiting new replacements.
 
Realistically there isn't much you can do retrospectively. If you could make your rankings more accurate you would do, and I'm sure you're looking into creative ways to improve and refine them all the time anyway. Any 'we are more accurate than x% of analysts' statements just comes across as uncaring, lame self promotion, and still doesn't address anything for the customer, probably pushes them further away in fact.

I don't know if it is viable with regards to manpower but if you're dealing with a Dynasty team could you offer a personalized roster analysis for someone who has aired a grievance? Have someone talk through strategy for a specific team 1 on 1 for a half hour or so? In my experience absolutely nothing retains customers like a curated personal experience. No idea what you could potentially offer with a redraft team. Pre-season, pre draft strategy or something.

I suspect this probably isn't viable as the potential time required would be too limiting. You might even already offer this in fact, I don't know. Personal experiences and specific responses are better than anything generic and vague though.

If the person in question doesn't understand that the QB10 has a significant chance to outscore the QB5 then they are probably beyond help. I'd also suspect that a lot of the initial outrage is just people venting and that once there's some distance from the loss they probably are more inclined to apply a little bit more logic and little less emotion to the experience.
 
FF info is a tool in the box. The hammer doesn't build the house, it's one of the things I use to build the house.

Side note: big fan of Lammey and Bloom on YouTube
As mentioned, FBG provides a lot of value outside of weekly rankings (and us old farts all know that rankings are more of a discussion point than a science).

But sending money to the company that gives Cecil and Sig a platform is worth it all by itself.

Something really special, what they do.
 
This may be more vague than what you’re looking for, but if someone is going to stay or leave based on and expectation that individual predictions cause them to win/lose, your choices are:

1. Figure out a way to be accurate with your predictions so that they win or
2. Reset their expectations

If you can’t do at least one of those, you’re going to have an unhappy customer/ex-customer.

For #1, that’s the crux of your business so I’ll just assume that you already have ways you are measuring accuracy and are always trying to figure out ways to be more accurate.

From a customer standpoint, I really have zero idea what your accuracy looks like. If I were a customer that cared about that, I have no way of knowing how accurate FBG is other than my own personal results. If I use FBG rankings for drafting and lineups for the year and my team misses the playoffs, what evidence does FBG provide to that individual that it was just some bad luck and that your overall projections are worth paying for next year? With no data to refer to, a customer would be looking at paying $45+ again next year on “trust me, it’s worth it” when their personal experience (their only data point) says otherwise.

As far as re-setting expectations, I think that needs to happen before the wins/losses. Awfully hard to reset expectations after someone is already upset and distrustful. They’re only going to see it as self-serving.
 
Few things:
  • Most of us over the course of our lives have dealt with bad customers with unrealistic expectations. Squeaky wheels usually get the grease (and they've gotten Joe's attention obviously). The good customers understand that Player X got tackled at the 1 twice, which killed what would have otherwise been a good day. It's hard to satisfy a customer that blasts your rankings as "off" because the Saints chose to throw the 1-yard TD pass to Lynn Bowden instead of Alvin Kamara.
  • The closest comparison I can make is the little card that tells you what to do with every blackjack hand. When to split, when to double down, when to hit, when to stay. But you can still lose.
  • I always try to put myself in the other guys shoes, so here goes. Essentially, in Joe's scenario, I'm a customer paying Joe and his staff to set my lineup each week. If I miss the playoffs, I'm going to want to know what the heck happened. I could have missed the playoffs on my own just by guessing! - I imagine this is a guy that's used the free stuff previously and said what the heck I'll open the wallet and pay for some expert advice. I don't think you can count on these customers in your business model. All you can do in these instances is drive what differentiates your site from everything else out there.
  • As others have stated, some kind of "post-mortem" analysis could provide some solace to some of your clients (while providing value to all subscribers). Have a section on the site where you list the rankings from the previous week, and if something odd (usually injury) threw off where they should have been ranked have a column that lists that. "We had the Bengals D ranked #1, but Burrow threw 5 picks and Pittsburgh started from inside the Bengal 10 on all of those." I think all of your customer base could benefit from something like that.
  • If you're not doing this already I'd be surprised, but internally you should be seeing how you match up to other pay sites. Are other sites wildly off of your rankings? Are they way more successful at predicting than your site is? Why did Footballgents.com have Josh Allen ranked as 12 while you had him at 3? Maybe the "squeaky wheel" helps point out a flaw in your prognostications.
 
Last edited:
Here’s one thing that maybe should be offered, this was would the most useful thing FBG could give me: an email for every bit of mid week injury news/starter changes/strong speculation as it happens. Actionable news Tuesday-Sunday morning In realer time than a daily digest email. End of the day is too late when I can grab a guy for free sometimes.

If I don’t want to/can’t stay on top of every breaking news so that or some kind of faster alert info would be helpful
 
The primary problem here is people accepting the results of their actions and instead faulting you for not predicting the future correctly. "He made me do it" is for third graders IMO. I've never understood why you guys (the industry as a whole) don't just do "tiers" of players with 4-5 in each tier and not rank them within those tiers. If they have two QBs in the same tier, good for them....they pick one and go with it.
 
🤷‍♂️ it’s not that different, than a financial advisor who has their client properly invested in a total market fund based on their risk tolerance (assuming they advised the client and the client decided to go with the advice) Then that client sees others all in the S&P 500 who got a better return this year.

Is that client upset? Maybe.

Is the FA providing the appropriate service? Probably (although shady companies and people exist)

It has always been clear that you can’t predict the future and we have no control over performance.

The only time I’d be upset is if you should know about an injury (risk) and failed to provide notice about that risk.
 
You're in the business of predicting the future. As a long time customer, what I come here for are insights and thoughts that are different than mine so that I can re-evaluate my positions. Do I occasionally look at rankings for who to start, sure I do, but it's more of a guard rail to make sure I am not thinking completely differently than the community. Or if I am, to then explore more and see what I might have missed.

I saw a post prior in this thread talking about not using Draft Dominator anymore because it produced poor results, but Draft Dominator is the #1 thing that has kept me as a paying customer year after year. I tweak the projections and do not follow it as gospel by any means, but it's such a head start on anyone who is not using such a tool, that it's hard to ignore. I don't have the time anymore to do my own predictions for every player, so why not start with a set of predictions from people who do take that time?

Sometimes you're not going to get it right. If that makes a customer leave, so be it. If your predictions were perfect, there would be no reason to watch the games.
 
I didn't read all that but I think I know what you are asking. For the first time ever, I have used the FBG ranking often on flex level guys in my 3wr AND 1flex 16 team league this year. I have lost more than ever as it never works out. Granted, the guys are/were Dotson, Theilan, Allgier, J Cook, M Mayer (we have big TE scoring), Chase Brown, and Brevin Jordan.
I have the same decision this week. I will probably just flip a coin. The NFL is crazy weird this year it seems to me. Refs/injuries/injury status/misleading coaches/stupid QB's ect. I don't blame FBG obviously, but I really feel like this is all luck, more than ever.
 
Been a subscriber for years. I subscribe for mostly for the Draft Dominator and the ability to sync my league rosters to view the 5 Second Primer for setting lineups.
The Draft Dominator help me track the draft and look for falling value, the Weekly projections etc help with setting lineups as I just have or want to spend the time for my own research. 10-15 years ago, this info was 90% better than anything else out there and ESPN/Yahoo draft and weekly projections were WAY off. Now other outlets, even free ones provide draft info and projections which are a lot closer, although you do provide more value. I sometimes question if the cost is worth it, and my teams have not feared as well as in the past, but that is more likely due to I'm not spending nearly the amount of time on Fantasy football as I used to but spend way more time with Legal sports betting as it is available in my state. Off topic, but have you ever thought of branching out into a service that provides +EV betting options? This seems similar to your VBD concept.

Anyway I know you were looking on feedback on customer retention, regarding your example, there are some customers that are going to feel slighted on the outcome, even though the advice was sound. It's like the guy sitting at the blackjack table with a hard 16 and the dealer showing a 7 and asks you for advice. You tell him he should hit, he does and pulls a Ten and busts, dealer turns over a 5 for 12 and then he gets mad at you saying, see, I knew I shoulda stayed, I knew he would have busted. Nothing you can do but give the best advice you can which is correct more often than others. Some customers will just want someone to blame when it doesn't work out.

I started Joshua Dobbs and Matt Gay last week in a must win in my 16 team league and I'm out. That's the luck of the draw.
 
Not sure what I'm looking for here other than I highly value the opinion of you folks here.

And I apologize but this is long.

Here's the basics.

One of my jobs as owner of Footballguys is to help as many of our customers as possible be happy with their subscription.

Obviously, the best way for them to be happy is for us to give them the advice that helps them win. That's our basic offer: You give us money, and we'll give you advice to help you win.

The primary way this works in season is we give our customers rankings for players so they can set their lineups.

So far so good.

Here's the problem: We are not perfectly accurate with our rankings.

That seems obvious, right?

But it sometimes looks like this:

A customer is setting his lineup for a crucial game in Week 14. The customer feels pretty good about all his start/bench decisions except for his one starting QB (save the Superflex jokes).

He's faced with a choice between a QB that FBG ranks QB5 vs a QB that Footballguys ranks QB10. The customer starts the QB we rank QB5.

The games are played and the player ranked QB5 posts 20 points. The player ranked QB10 posts 25 points. And the customer loses his matchup by 4 points.

If the customer had started the lower ranked QB, he would have won the crucial game.

We've all had this happen before and it's easy to sort of :shrug: and say "that's fantasy football". There were a half dozen plays from both QBs that could have easily gone the other way and changed the outcome. Weird things happen. Lucky things happen. Whatever.

That's my fantasy football GM attitude.

But my business owner attitude is much different.

From a business owner perspective, I now have a very unhappy customer. A customer who did what I told them and lost the game. A customer who feels like I did NOT hold up my promise to help them win more. They are a legitimately unhappy customer.

And I totally get it.

That theoretical customer was me this week.

I regularly get emails from unhappy people like this and I always try to answer them in a kind way. I'd talk about how I wish we had a perfect crystal ball and we'll keep doing our best and such. That's rational, of course.

But the reality is, I wonder if that customer (who is maybe not feeling rational) would roll his eyes and say, "I pay you to help me win, and you let me down."

And maybe, back to the business side, they're upset to the point they won't purchase the product again.

Sure, I can tell them our processes are sound. And they are. But that still likely doesn't help them be satisfied. Most customers are bottom-line type thinkers. Bottom line, did the thing they paid for deliver the thing I said it would?

So for you here, I'm wondering if you have thoughts on how to handle this as a business.

The obvious way is just to hope customers accept the reality that sometimes things don't work out. Sometimes bad breaks happen. But I'm sure that will result in a certain number of them failing to continue purchasing.

But the creative part of my brain is thinking how we have less upset customers.

  • Maybe we offer something for people who send a screen shot of them losing a game by more than the points their bench QB than the starter we had more highly ranked?
  • Maybe a bad beat section of Random Shots?
  • Maybe we do a "Where we wrong" column each week explaining the process for key players we missed on.

I truly don't know the answer, which is why I'm looking for feedback here.

And also to add, it's very likely that our competition had it wrong too.

But again, the customer doesn't care about that.

All they care about is they pay us to help them win. And we didn't live up to that in their eyes.

We have to be super careful to understand the question here.

It's not, "Is Footballguys better than ____________?"

It's, "Did I receive value for what I paid Footballguys and did they deliver on helping me win more?"

That's hugely important for us a business to be clear on the distinction.

Ok. That's enough rambling. Would love constructive feedback and real suggestions if you have them. Thank you.
Its a great question and here is my 2 cents worth. First since I cant watch all the games there is some value to me knowing My player had a td overturned on review or penalty....Or my player got chased down on the 1 yard line and almost scored. I truly miss that section from random shots. To the bigger picture: Its a given you guys (and anybody) dont always get things right.... nobody does. But here is what I think you CAN control (and dont know if you do this or not) at a basic level you depend on your staff making rankings to guide us. I think you owe it to the customer if you want to put out a quality product that I know you do to have some sort of quality control behind the scenes to make sure your getting the very best opinions from them and their expertise that money can buy. Im suggesting you hold the ones who arent doing so well compared to the others and other products out there accountable. It doesnt have to be anything public but at the end of the day its garbage in garbage out and if your staff proves over a given amount of time that they arent up to the task.....well its time to let that person go. How you would administer that would be up to you but I think when you have a paying product you owe it to the customer to give them the very best advice that you can knowing that it cant possibly be right 100% of the time (and I think anybody that would email you expecting otherwise is a miserable human being) end of the day we as FF players bear the brunt of the decision making and if we see things differently than FBG then it is on us to go against the grain so to speak. So I think quality control behind the scenes on your end is all you can really reasonably control.
 
Random stuff happens. You guys provide data that I use to make my decisions. Footballguys doesn't make my lineup choices.

That said, I would love to see in-season content that puts a number to the accuracy of the contributors to the League Dominator product. Overall variance, individual player variance, positional variance...that kind of thing.

If someone is consistently inaccurate, I can eliminate them from the data I pull in.
Thats kind of my point (only a bit "harsher" ). If someone is consistently inaccurate then in order to make FBG a better product then Joe might well consider behind the scenes how best to help that person get better or alternatively end up moving on from them.
 
I don't think you have a "customer" in that case. You have a person who paid for something that isn't actually being offered-- a flawless guide to picking the right fantasy players on any given week.

Your customers are looking for information-- trends, opinions, projections, and an educated voice that can be added to all the other voices (including their own) when making decisions each week.
THIS.

the key to any "results based business" is managing expectations.

be clear about what you are actually offering.
 
Haven't read the thread, but it seems like if you come out on the right end of things in the 60%+ range then you're doing something right. Might be a good idea to self-scout and put that together for internal review.
 
How deep into analyzing does FBG go? Are you watching film? What are each and every analysis you're looking at? Are you tracking data for how specific RBs, WRs, QBs, TEs fair against specific type defenses and then incorporating that into your rankings? coaching philosophies, game day over/unders, etc. etc. etc. If you're leaving no stone unturned and evaluating every piece of possible statistical data available and thinking critically about it in your projections, you might consider putting up a paragraph or more explaining the depth to which you go. If you feel you're not doing everything you can to get as accurate of projections as possible, do more, or state convincingly how thorough you are.
 
How deep into analyzing does FBG go? Are you watching film? What are each and every analysis you're looking at? Are you tracking data for how specific RBs, WRs, QBs, TEs fair against specific type defenses and then incorporating that into your rankings? coaching philosophies, game day over/unders, etc. etc. etc. If you're leaving no stone unturned and evaluating every piece of possible statistical data available and thinking critically about it in your projections, you might consider putting up a paragraph or more explaining the depth to which you go. If you feel you're not doing everything you can to get as accurate of projections as possible, do more, or state convincingly how thorough you are.
I’d even add to this, and I don’t know if it’s known til game day but what is the impact of the officiating crews, they all have tendencies
 
I have spent roughly 20+ years in quality management. The key to process control is measuring your process 1st and then looking for ways to improve the process. This is the same for all market sectors, regardless of what the end product or service is. The critical part of that is determining the best and most repeatable way to measure your process. For example, if you have 2 guys ranked 9th and 10th and they finish the opposite way, is that really a failure?

I would also like to add that I don't know why anyone would simply rely on others rankings and not have your own voice. Why bother playing if you are just transactionally going through the motions and following someone else's direction? I always look at the "experts" rankings but then I make my own choice. If it seems my opinion is vastly different, I will sometimes reach out and ask for other opinions, such as Chaka's WDIS weekly thread. Even when I get those opinions, I rarely change my mind but it's nice to see other thought processes that I may have not considered. Maybe I didn't know there was a massive snow storm coming. To me, that supports those that want the commentary along with the rankings.
 
2 random thoughts on this and appreciate the ask (in a world where you are never gonna get it perfect)

Maybe you rate the basket or your rankers somehow - rate the raters. Maybe you even do that by position and do hot and cold over say the last 3 or so weeks. And rate the consensus too.

On the feedback side maybe you do a drawing for a bad beat freeroll tournament for the following season? Or give it for the 12 worst breaks of the season that are provable?

I combine the rankings with articles and gut and news and I as much just like supporting you guys in general :shrug:

Anyway thanks for asking :)

-QG
 
Reminds me of the time that I was sitting next to my uncle at a Black Jack table and he tries to split jacks against a king. I suggest otherwise and he ignores me. Gets an ace on one and makes a crazy 4 card 21 with the other. He says “that’s why I don’t pay for your advice.”

People pay for fantasy advice because they want to make the smart play that is backed up with data. Teams have analytics departments for the same reason. At the end of the day, you win some you should win, win some you should lose, lose some you should win and lose some you should lose. If you keep playing long enough it should pay off.
 
I love the draft dominator, this alone for anyone that plays multiple leagues, is well worth it. The “what you need to know” email/article has been a great addition.

The league dominator is good, but not great. This where I get frustrated as a client. Although I have used it religiously over the years as feedback and guidance. I feel like the ranking was not as great as it could have been. I would love to see some accuracy rankings. The hot / cold idea above is fantastic. There is a poster above who said he used FBG for his flex position and I did as well in many spots. It was a frustrating year for us. Any kind of accuracy rankings would be great!


As a long time paying customer. I must say, I subscribed to many free emails this past year for extra advice. I was pleasantly surprised with all the free content around.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top