Happy Matt Waldman Rookie Scouting Portfolio Day to Those Who Celebrate (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Woke up to an email that’s basically going to ruin my productivity, and probably make me question everything I thought I knew about the incoming rookies, especially at QB.

A very merry Waldman Scouting Portfolio day to you all.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

ARich

 

[farfromforgotten]

ARich

Definitely makes ya think…

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

ARich

Definitely makes ya think…

I mean. It’s messin with my head.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

For anyone who doesn’t know what this is, it’s an incredible deep dive on the 2023 draft.

I’ve followed Matt for years, but it’s my 1st year paying for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and it’s an impressive document.

I hope it’s ok to share the link to it. I’m unaffiliated. lol

 

[rockaction]

I get it every year. I'm about to purchase this year's edition.

 

[BassNBrew]

For anyone who doesn’t know what this is, it’s an incredible deep dive on the 2023 draft.

I’ve followed Matt for years, but it’s my 1st year paying for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and it’s an impressive document.

I hope it’s ok to share the link to it. I’m unaffiliated. lol

Probably would enjoy the reading material and he's outstanding at presenting and entertaining, however until I see better analysis I just can't pay for this.

I also wonder why if he's good at scouting rookies why someone hasn't snapped him up. Maybe NFL scouts get paid like dog doo and publishing your own material is the smart thing to do. I'm sure lots of guys want that job and there is a huge amount of nepotism so maybe NFL scouts are treated like interns.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

until I see better analysis

It’s the deepest dives on players that I’ve ever seen.

I’m not sure one can get better analysis.

Unless you mean you disagree with his analysis, which is ok, it’s just not the same thing.

 

[dkp993]

Matt is the man.

 

[titusbramble]

For anyone who doesn’t know what this is, it’s an incredible deep dive on the 2023 draft.

I’ve followed Matt for years, but it’s my 1st year paying for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and it’s an impressive document.

I hope it’s ok to share the link to it. I’m unaffiliated. lol

I also wonder why if he's good at scouting rookies why someone hasn't snapped him up

Maybe Matt prefers his independence and/or thinks he makes more money/has better life balance selling the RSP? I know it take a damn good offer for me to provide my tipping in another sport to someone else (or go to the dark side and work for a bookie themselves)

 

[BassNBrew]

For anyone who doesn’t know what this is, it’s an incredible deep dive on the 2023 draft.

I’ve followed Matt for years, but it’s my 1st year paying for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and it’s an impressive document.

I hope it’s ok to share the link to it. I’m unaffiliated. lol

I also wonder why if he's good at scouting rookies why someone hasn't snapped him up

Maybe Matt prefers his independence and/or thinks he makes more money/has better life balance selling the RSP? I know it take a damn good offer for me to provide my tipping in another sport to someone else (or go to the dark side and work for a bookie themselves)

Could very well be the case. Does make sense that a huge machine like the NFL would pay like doo doo, but maybe scouts are interns hoping to be a future player personal or GM type of guy.

 

[BassNBrew]

until I see better analysis

It’s the deepest dives on players that I’ve ever seen.

I’m not sure one can get better analysis.

Unless you mean you disagree with his analysis, which is ok, it’s just not the same thing.

I meant the pre-season all player analysis last year. Pretty much if you did the opposite you would have crushed it last year. His rankings tend to diverge significantly for the other FBG experts and usually the others end up being more accurate. Maybe his process on rookies is better, but that's to big of a risk when the full NFL process underwhelms. Now I will admit the content (not analysis) is likely very valuable for you to analysis the players yourself.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

until I see better analysis

It’s the deepest dives on players that I’ve ever seen.

I’m not sure one can get better analysis.

Unless you mean you disagree with his analysis, which is ok, it’s just not the same thing.

I meant the pre-season all player analysis last year. Pretty much if you did the opposite you would have crushed it last year. His rankings tend to diverge significantly for the other FBG experts and usually the others end up being more accurate. Maybe his process on rookies is better, but that's to big of a risk when the full NFL process underwhelms. Now I will admit the content (not analysis) is likely very valuable for you to analysis the players yourself.

I don’t agree with all of his conclusions, but his process is intense, and I’ve never seen deeper dives into players.

I’m only 1/20 through this thing - it’s a beast of a document.

I know last year wasn’t a good year for his results. That’s bound to happen from time to time.

I’m more interested in the information he’s providing. I didn’t get it as a ranking system - I got it because there’s a wealth of information.

 

[SoBeDad]

If a few NFL teams feel the same, Richardson could be in play at #2 for the Texans or a trade-up to #3 for the ARI pick. It's gonna be an interesting few weeks leading up to the draft.

My prediction: The Colts give up their 2nd round pick and get back the ARI 3rd round comp pick to move up one slot in the first round to #3. The Colt fans seem to like AR.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The Colt fans seem to like AR.

CC: @JohnnyU ?

 

[JohnnyU]

The Colt fans seem to like AR.

CC: @JohnnyU ?

Perhaps some do. I suppose you could make a case that some Colts fans seem to like Stroud, Young, Levis and Richardson.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The Colt fans seem to like AR.

CC: @JohnnyU ?

Perhaps some do. I suppose you could make a case that some Colts fans seem to like Stroud, Young, Levis and Richardson.

I just know that you don’t.

I have to say, Waldman’s detailed breakdown gives me pause.

Much of what I hated about his game seems teachable, albeit a small enough sample size that I’m still probably going Stroud.

That said, I’m convinced that Richardson isn’t another Malik Willis, so that’s a big step up from what I’d previously perceived.

 

[crushedspirit]

If you just look at the rankings while briefly skimming the extensive write-ups he provides, then you're doing it wrong.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If you just look at the rankings while briefly skimming the extensive write-ups he provides, then you're doing it wrong.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I didn’t know a % of proceeds went to victims of child abuse.

I love the RSP even more now.

This is a heck of a thread. Much respect for Matt Waldman.

 

[JohnnyU]

I have a lot of respect for Waldman's film acumen. I especially took notice regarding Burks last year and many others I feel he was right on in the recent past. The guy is one of, if not the best, film analyst in the business.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

I think @Hot Sauce Guy nailed it. You have to separate the rankings from the actual content.

The depth of his analysis is great. If being able to know something about every single prospect that might eventually pop off in the NFL for a week is important to you (and it probably is if you're here in early April), then it's well worth the money.

His actual rankings are another story. He's true to his process and there are a lot of bold takes. The fact that you're getting a thorough and completely independent analysis is a good thing and really where the value lies -- an additional opinion on players from a guy that clearly does his homework. That said, I can definitely see where someone might feel scorned if they've put too much faith in his rankings and think that their $20-30 (whatever his price is) was a secret weapon they paid for to dominate rookie drafts.

The last time I went in on the RSP was 2020. Given his 3-year updates, I was thinking that it's probably time for me to take another shot. First, I decided I wanted to take another look at his 2020 RSP. It's certainly easy to be the Monday morning QB. We can all appreciate that NFL personnel making millions to get this right, make all kinds of mistakes in their evaluations. It would be foolish not to expect as many (and more) from Matt.

That said, his 2020 rankings aren't pretty. If you're telling me that 2022 is just as ugly or worse, it gives me some pause. I realize that the guy has a LOT of big wins to his name, but for 2020 alone, I'm definitely seeing more Ls than Ws if I'm keeping score. However, I come back to the depth of the content and the fact is that I will probably get my $20-25 of value out of it on this alone.

With all of the pages of content, including re-rankings of previous prospects, is he giving any kind of post-mortem on the players that he did get wrong? I know there were in-season updates on my 2020 purchase, but not sure that I ever saw any kind of post-mortem, be it 2021 or in the years following. One of my frustrations is a propensity to double-down on some of these evaluations that didn't work out, rather than just acknowledge I got this guy wrong here's why it didn't work out. Again, nobody should expect him to be any more accurate than an NFL GM.

Anyway, I'm planning to give him my business this year. But if his 2022 isn't looking great, it would be a lot easier if some small portion of his 2023 RSP content was dedicated to the players evaluations that aren't looking so good from 2022, 2021, 2020.

 

[King of the Jungle]

I have mentioned before but he turned me onto Mahomes and Kupp before I even really knew who they were (amongst many others). He had Brock Purdy as his 6th overall QB last year. There are factors outside of a rankers control that determine a players success, Waldman is damn good at what he does.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He had Brock Purdy as his 6th overall QB last year

There’s an Anthony Richardson connection here as well - that’s the part that has me believing I may be underrating ARich and it’s killin me.

 

[steeler6]

I'm just waiting for that Skylar Thompson love to pay off.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

He had Brock Purdy as his 6th overall QB last year

There’s an Anthony Richardson connection here as well - that’s the part that has me believing I may be underrating ARich and it’s killin me.

Mahomes call is absolutely a feather in his hat. His endorsement on the podcasts that year probably helped me pull the trigger in my first dynasty startup. Probably a major reason why I've followed him closely ever since. That said I couldn't tell you if that was an "I like this kid, and think he's worthy of a top 15 pick" endorsement, or if it was a "first ballot hall of famer" endorsement. A massive win either way if he was identified as the QB#1.

I would call Purdy as QB#6 a pretty minor win given that he was the 8th QB off the board. That's not planting much of a flag in a weak QB draft, but give him credit for having him two spots higher than the NFL. As @steeler6 pointed out, Skylar was the late round QB he was pounding the table for. I definitely actioned this accordingly in the weeks he was given a chance to start. No real harm done in my 1QB, and there's nothing that says he won't be a quality backup for those in SF.

If you're not a Richardson guy and want to be okay with it, look no further than 2020. Tua and Burrow close, but the wrong one at the top (at least in pre-draft). Hurts and Herbert buried behind some very dubious names.

 

[nightmare]

The FF community demands rankings and rankings without context or you not reading it are USELESS.

Some of you guys are missing that M Waldman using rankings is that you demanded them.
Every year he spends 100+ pages about how draft spot, coach's bias, and situation, can kill a players value.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If you're not a Richardson guy and want to be okay with it, look no further than 2020. Tua and Burrow close, but the wrong one at the top (at least in pre-draft). Hurts and Herbert buried behind some very dubious names.

Yeah, I’m still a Stroud guy as QB1, and I feel like there’s a sizable gap to Young, with less of a gap between Young & ARich for their flaws. Young’s size, ARich’s need of seasoning/coaching.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The FF community demands rankings and rankings without context or you not reading it are USELESS.

Some of you guys are missing that M Waldman using rankings is that you demanded them.
Every year he spends 100+ pages about how draft spot, coach's bias, and situation, can kill a players value.

He even has a long preface about rankings and how much he hates doing them.

 

[JohnnyU]

The FF community demands rankings and rankings without context or you not reading it are USELESS.

Some of you guys are missing that M Waldman using rankings is that you demanded them.
Every year he spends 100+ pages about how draft spot, coach's bias, and situation, can kill a players value.

He even has a long preface about rankings and how much he hates doing them.

I know I certainly don’t need rankings. I think they are useless. I’m more into player analysis. I’ll mentally rank one player over another. I don’t need a top ten in a specific order. People who do are probably doing this wrong.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

I'm pretty sure there are more Joe Bag'O Donuts looking for help on their dynasty team's rookie draft than there are NFL scouts purchasing the RSP (which there certainly are). It would be utterly ridiculous for a ranking not to be included in a publication this thorough, whether it be a cheat sheet or player prospect score.

No, Matt, I couldn't care less about which WR you would take if you were on the clock in a startup I mean, you only just spent every waking moment of your winter watching and writing up these guys. I will just weigh which write-up I find most flowery with my favorite adjectives, take a look at some Tee Higgins Clemson and Denzel Mims Baylor highlights and shoot from the hip.

He does it right. Pre-draft ranking. Post-draft ranking. If NFL draft evaluations geared towards fantasy is your bread and butter, you should absolutely go on record. With that said, you shouldn't blindly follow these rankings without any other inputs specific to your team, league, or other draft evaluators. It would also be ridiculous to expect him not to miss or be any more accurate than the average NFL front office. it's nice that he writes an essay on all of the countless variables that can derail an NFL player's development, but also kind of obvious and comes across as don't blame me when this evaluation goes to hell.

If a dynasty player has never purchased the RSP, I would suggest that you're spending your money on detailed player analysis of a sheer number of players that's astonishing. You're gaining an independent evaluation from a fantasy insider with an HR background following a painstaking process. Does that translate to great rankings with a custom cheat sheet that will allow you to kill your rookie draft? No. I would suggest that you will probably have better luck blindly following NFL draft capital than blindly following Waldman's rankings. However, it's a helpful evaluation that can help you get to the right place if you don't treat it like an all-knowing oracle that you just purchased for $21.95.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm pretty sure there are more Joe Bag'O Donuts looking for help on their dynasty team's rookie draft than there are NFL scouts purchasing the RSP (which there certainly are). It would be utterly ridiculous for a ranking not to be included in a publication this thorough, whether it be a cheat sheet or player prospect score.

No, Matt, I couldn't care less about which WR you would take if you were on the clock in a startup I mean, you only just spent every waking moment of your winter watching and writing up these guys. I will just weigh which write-up I find most flowery with my favorite adjectives, take a look at some Tee Higgins Clemson and Denzel Mims Baylor highlights and shoot from the hip.

He does it right. Pre-draft ranking. Post-draft ranking. If NFL draft evaluations geared towards fantasy is your bread and butter, you should absolutely go on record. With that said, you shouldn't blindly follow these rankings without any other inputs specific to your team, league, or other draft evaluators. It would also be ridiculous to expect him not to miss or be any more accurate than the average NFL front office. it's nice that he writes an essay on all of the countless variables that can derail an NFL player's development, but also kind of obvious and comes across as don't blame me when this evaluation goes to hell.

If a dynasty player has never purchased the RSP, I would suggest that you're spending your money on detailed player analysis of a sheer number of players that's astonishing. You're gaining an independent evaluation from a fantasy insider with an HR background following a painstaking process. Does that translate to great rankings with a custom cheat sheet that will allow you to kill your rookie draft? No. I would suggest that you will probably have better luck blindly following NFL draft capital than blindly following Waldman's rankings. However, it's a helpful evaluation that can help you get to the right place if you don't treat it like an all-knowing oracle that you just purchased for $21.95.

Perfectly summarized.

I’m barely through 1/5 if it and it’s just so much incredible information.

Distilling it into formation of my own opinions about players I’m interested in will require some mental gymnastics. While I’ll take Matt’s rankings into consideration, I will also look at other inputs (watching the player highlights, consensus rankings, some individual writers I enjoy) - but nothing I’ve ever seen has the level of detail and painstaking breakdowns of every aspect of players like this tome.

I hope this isn’t the last RSP - it sounded like there may not be very many more.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Matt Waldman’s RSP Film Room: Anthony Richardson (Florida) - the Pocket Manager and Field General

published on YT 3 months ago

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Matt Waldman’s RSP Film Room: Anthony Richardson (Florida) - the Pocket Manager and Field General

published on YT 3 months ago

I watched this when it came out, and just watched it again.

I do wish he broke down some of Richardson's bad play in addition to the highlights. The video compilation is presenting him in a pretty flattering light, without talking about his warts.

That said, I get that Waldman is trying to show ARich's upside here, and he does call out his weaknesses in the RSP. He seems to believe they're all coachable issues.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Matt Waldman’s RSP Film Room: Anthony Richardson (Florida) - the Pocket Manager and Field General

published on YT 3 months ago

I watched this when it came out, and just watched it again.

I do wish he broke down some of Richardson's bad play in addition to the highlights. The video compilation is presenting him in a pretty flattering light, without talking about his warts.

That said, I get that Waldman is trying to show ARich's upside here, and he does call out his weaknesses in the RSP. He seems to believe they're all coachable issues.

Posted another video in the player thread from That Franchise Guy who spends a good 8-10 minutes on the weaknesses (stating around 18:00 if you want to skip ahead.) Like for instance, yes climbs the pocket to buy time.....sometimes....he also climbs the pocket into the pressure just as often. Yes he can make an occasional anticipatory throw with accuracy. The issue is not that he can never be accurate, it's that far too often he's way off.

Tantalizing prospect. He can literally make any throw. He's made pro style reads. But he simply hasn't had enough game reps. There's no guarantee he ever gets there, Taysom Hill could be his ceiling. It's a big swing at a guy who would be one of the 5 strongest arms in the league day one, with incredible physical traits. And he might never become what you hope, and it could be a career that derails a franchise for years and costs several people their jobs.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Matt Waldman’s RSP Film Room: Anthony Richardson (Florida) - the Pocket Manager and Field General

published on YT 3 months ago

I watched this when it came out, and just watched it again.

I do wish he broke down some of Richardson's bad play in addition to the highlights. The video compilation is presenting him in a pretty flattering light, without talking about his warts.

That said, I get that Waldman is trying to show ARich's upside here, and he does call out his weaknesses in the RSP. He seems to believe they're all coachable issues.

Posted another video in the player thread from That Franchise Guy who spends a good 8-10 minutes on the weaknesses (stating around 18:00 if you want to skip ahead.) Like for instance, yes climbs the pocket to buy time.....sometimes....he also climbs the pocket into the pressure just as often. Yes he can make an occasional anticipatory throw with accuracy. The issue is not that he can never be accurate, it's that far too often he's way off.

Tantalizing prospect. He can literally make any throw. He's made pro style reads. But he simply hasn't had enough game reps. There's no guarantee he ever gets there, Taysom Hill could be his ceiling. It's a big swing at a guy who would be one of the 5 strongest arms in the league day one, with incredible physical traits. And he might never become what you hope, and it could be a career that derails a franchise for years and costs several people their jobs.

I’m more than likely gonna take Stroud in my 12-team SF with picks 1-2-3-8. I’ve spent way too much time rebuilding to get that risky. I dealt for Fields, so I don’t really need to swing for the fences at QB2.

In my 16-teamer, it’s a much tougher decision. Rolling with Fields/Mayfield and only have Hall/AJD at RB. Teams 1.02 & 1.03 aren’t well suited for a trade. I’m waiting to see landing spots to fully decide.

ARich, for all his upside, has a floor about a mile below sea level. I’ll let someone else take the rather extreme risk.