Has the dynasty RB vs. WR pendulum swung too far towards WR? (1 Viewer)

[Dan Hindery]

This is a topic I've really been pondering this offseason...

I think it's pretty obvious that 5-6 years ago and even as recently as two years ago, dynasty startup and rookie drafts skewed far too heavily towards RBs near the top of the draft and young WRs were undervalued. First rounds were dominated by RBs with a few WRs and QBs mixed in. The strategy of young WRs early and often mostly worked out (Dez, Julio, AJ, Megatron and others have produced and maintained their value) for owners who were smart enough to employ the strategy. And the teams who drafted older RBs too early found themselves bleeding value and looking for a replacement by year 2 or 3 in many cases (some RBs like McCoy, Peterson and Charles are exceptions and have provided nice value to people who drafted them 4-5 years ago).

However, the WR-heavy approach has gone from a brilliant way to go against the grain and exploit the market to find value to the orthodoxy. The majority of dynasty owners entering a startup draft are now looking to build their team upon the base of young WRs. Maybe it's just the leagues that I am playing in, but it seems to me the pendulum has now swung too far the opposite direction and young WRs are now overvalued.

As an example, in a recent dynasty startup draft (12 team PPR with 1/2/3/1 and 1 flex) I participated in, a whopping 17 of the first 50 selections were 1st or 2nd year WRs. That's over 1 in 3 picks that were spent on WRs drafted in either 2014 or 2015...

What's the over/under on WRs from the 2014/2015 rookie classes developing into impact WR1 or WR2s? 8.5?

It's never been easier to build a team around elite young RB talents if you wanted to. In fact, it's probably the first time I can remember in my dynasty experience that it is exceptionally easy to start a team with multiple top notch young RBs.

For example, in the startup draft I referenced, it would have been possible (drafting from the 6 hole) to have started the draft with 1. Le'Veon Bell, 2. Todd Gurley, 3. Melvin Gordon, 4. Ameer Abdullah, 5. Giovani Bernard and 6. Duke Johnson in the first 6 rounds. Obviously that is overkill and includes a bunch of unproven rookies. I wouldn't advise starting a draft with 6 straight RBs, but in terms of value...that's a pretty strong start and gives you a solid base to build upon and some pretty tantalizing trade bait assuming a few of the rookie RBs "hit" big. It's easy to grab TE and QB later so you are left only needing to find a few WRs to have a very nice team.

Sorry for the long, rambling post, but this was just something I have been pondering lately and wanted to throw it out there for discussion. I've found myself coming out of startup drafts this offseason with RB-heavy rosters (both Bell and Gurley on every startup team this offseason) and I'm not sure if the strategy is a wise way to exploit the current "groupthink" or something I'll end up regretting looking back in a few years. Thoughts?

 

[ConnSKINS26]

When I start seeing owners zig while everyone else zags, and they start winning championships by hoarding RB's instead of WR's, I'll agree with this.

 

[Slider]

The NFL has devalued RB's. Young great WR's can be 10 year stars. RB's maybe 5 or 6 for the elite. I'd rather stockpile young WR's, a stud TE and carry whatever at RB.

 

[Ben & Jerry's]

I agree with the OP. While it is true stud WRs have a longer shelf life, the supply side still favors taking stud RBs early. I find there are plenty of very good WRs available in the middle rounds.

What startup dynasty league is LeVeon Bell available at 1.06 ?

 

[fruity pebbles]

While I agree with you, why is it so much riskier to start a team with 1-2 year wrs vs. 1-2 year rbs?

 

[amicsta]

Many fantasy leagues are also shifting towards PPR scoring. Becomes a race for the best WR core imo. That obviously oversimplifies it, but if you stockpile WR, you increase your chances of landing WR1s.

 

[ghostguy123]

No. If anything in my leagues there is still too much weight given to the value of the RBs.

Try trading for a RB from a decent team and not give a good RB in return. The value quadruples.

 

[ghostguy123]

Many fantasy leagues are also shifting towards PPR scoring. Becomes a race for the best WR core imo. That obviously oversimplifies it, but if you stockpile WR, you increase your chances of landing WR1s.

And increases your chances of winning for a very long time.

Sure you can go RB heavy and do very well for a year or two, but then your team looks like a complete waste of crap afterwards.

 

[maf005]

Position values are cyclical, and at least partially based on available talent.

These past few years have not produced great rb prospects.

 

[buck naked]

I agree with the OP. While it is true stud WRs have a longer shelf life, the supply side still favors taking stud RBs early. I find there are plenty of very good WRs available in the middle rounds.

What startup dynasty league is LeVeon Bell available at 1.06 ?

He went 1.07 in an FFPC 750 startup just this week.

 

[buck naked]

Excellent topic, Dan. I've been thinking the same thing in dynasty and in redraft leagues. I buy into the theory that eventually there will be a swing back toward RBs a bit more, but right now the majority of the good RBs are old. Maybe this year's class will have 4-5 hit and change the dynamics of 2016 startup drafts a bit.

 

[17seconds]

Main difference in dynasty drafts is all the young WR1s come off the board in the first round. Yes it is skewed. But you get twice the longevity compared to RB.

I'd like to know the average length of a dynasty league.? There's got to be some fairly high possibility that the league will be dead or you would leave the league for whatever reason within 5yrs. If that is the case then owners drafting all 23-25 yr olds are throwing money away and owners are overvaluing WRs if they draft them for the extra longevity.

 

[17seconds]

One consideration I'm making this year's draft class... The biggest needs on my dynasty team *this year* are getting a solid WR2 and a RB I can start in the flex.

I have the 8th pick in the rookie draft. Only the first few WRs are projected for WR2 numbers this season, so I have no shot at one of those. Many more of the RBs are projected for RB2 numbers, so it's almost for certain I'm getting an RB even if there are 5 WRs ahead of him on my draft board overall.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

One consideration I'm making this year's draft class... The biggest needs on my dynasty team *this year* are getting a solid WR2 and a RB I can start in the flex.

I have the 8th pick in the rookie draft. Only the first few WRs are projected for WR2 numbers this season, so I have no shot at one of those. Many more of the RBs are projected for RB2 numbers, so it's almost for certain I'm getting an RB even if there are 5 WRs ahead of him on my draft board overall.

Are you successful with this strategy? Drafting for need is never a good idea in a rookie draft. Just trade the pick for a known quantity if you want to use it to fill a need.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Main difference in dynasty drafts is all the young WR1s come off the board in the first round. Yes it is skewed. But you get twice the longevity compared to RB.

I'd like to know the average length of a dynasty league.? There's got to be some fairly high possibility that the league will be dead or you would leave the league for whatever reason within 5yrs. If that is the case then owners drafting all 23-25 yr olds are throwing money away and owners are overvaluing WRs if they draft them for the extra longevity.

As for this, it's a fair point, but if you aren't approaching a dynasty league as if it's a venture without an end date, then it destroys the entire point of it. I know of leagues going into their 15th season at least, and I'm in leagues started closer to the beginning of the "dynasty boom" that are coming up on 5 years, with no end in sight. A couple others are leagues I commish that are in their 2nd or 3rd years and again, no problems on the horizon that I can foresee.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?/topic/709182-ppr-are-we-over-correcting-in-the-modern-nfl-2015-update-post-92/

2015 Update: https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?/topic/709182-ppr-are-we-over-correcting-in-the-modern-nfl-2015-update-post-92/?p=18044975

 

[17seconds]

One consideration I'm making this year's draft class... The biggest needs on my dynasty team *this year* are getting a solid WR2 and a RB I can start in the flex.

I have the 8th pick in the rookie draft. Only the first few WRs are projected for WR2 numbers this season, so I have no shot at one of those. Many more of the RBs are projected for RB2 numbers, so it's almost for certain I'm getting an RB even if there are 5 WRs ahead of him on my draft board overall.

Are you successful with this strategy? Drafting for need is never a good idea in a rookie draft. Just trade the pick for a known quantity if you want to use it to fill a need.

You have a good point there. Filling the flex with a rookie RB in a good initial role is maybe too optimistic.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Even if the general value of picks/positions changes the only value that counts is how your league values picks/positions, its always league dependent but if you are not concerned with how others value picks and just look at what positions hold the most value over time then check out some studies.

Here is a recent one conducted this spring at Dynasty League Football where the guy started out with a hypothesis that proved wrong where he thought the best strategy was to trade rookie picks at the moment he felt they were highest. Seemed like a valid hypothesis and his data proved that tons of rookie draft picks bust but if you look at the final results its easy to see the best picks were used to draft WRs, they held the most value over time.

His entire case study heavily emphasized what he wanted to prove so it has a ton of data on when he felt rookie draft pick value was highest but the key was the end results gathered from data from 2009 to 2014.

http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2015/04/29/rookie-draft-study-an-introduction/

Rookie Draft Study: An IntroductionPublished On Wednesday, April 29, 2015 By Jeff Miller.

ROOKIE DRAFT STUDY

A SPECIAL PROJECT BY JEFF MILLER

... As with any research project, I began with a hypothesis. I had theorized the best way to handle a rookie draft (in a vacuum) was to sell picks as close to the draft as possible, avoid the risk, and ride proven veterans. Spoiler alert: I was wrong...

... Draft picks bust. A lot.Of the 48 players drafted in rookie drafts in 2009, only 17 were still being drafted four years later. The 2010 and 2011 classes didn’t fare any better as they had 17 and 19 players being selected four years out respectively.

With two-thirds of rookies unownable within four years, it sort of makes you want to burn your draft picks. Don’t be hasty though, as that figure tells only a small part of a much bigger story.

Here’s a sample of those drafted from 2009-2011 who still have a place on our rosters: Dez Bryant, Rob Gronkowski, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, Randall Cobb, Jimmy Graham, LeSean McCoy and DeMarco Murray.

The hit percentage may be disconcertingly low, but the upside is higher than a giraffe’s schnoz.

The problem this leaves us is in quantifying if the risk is worth the reward. As I said in the intro, the answer has proven rather elusive. If you look through 2013 ADP data you might conclude the 1.05 could have been dealt for T.Y. Hilton when it was instead used on Montee Ball. But I could also look at 2014 ADP and tell you that you Ball’s trade value was approximately the 1.07 and the 2.01, which turned into Odell Beckham and Kelvin Benjamin.

Now you see my dilemma...

I did my own study last year to find out the highest hit rate for rookie WRs and in no surprise I found the rookies who had the highest hit rates were selected in the first round of the NFL draft. I didn't keep the data but I remember that the best way to find top fantasy WRs in rookie dynasty drafts was to target WRs who were taken in the first round of the NFL draft. Last year proved a banner year for rookie WRs taken in the 1st round of the NFL draft and I think this year will prove the same.

At the same time I noticed the recent trend of no RBs being taken in the 1st round of the NFL draft so obviously the same logic doesn't hold true for rookie RBs taken in the 1st round as it does for rookie WRs taken in the first round.

So the NFL is valuing the WR higher than the RB position in their draft so RBs taken later in the NFL draft tend to be overlooked but bargains can be found but the bottom line is this:

The wisest rookie draft decision is to use high rookie draft picks on WRs IF THEY WERE 1ST ROUND NFL DRAFT PICKS since they hold the highest fantasy value over time AND its easier to target/determine which rookie WRs will make it, the first round picks, and much more difficult to sort through the RBs taken later because its more hit-and-miss and their fantasy value doesn't hold up over time.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Shouldn't have implemented PPR, you'd have a happy balance. Example from my league...

RBs over 120 points last year = 20

WRs over 120 points last year = 20

RBs have some top ceiling advantages and WRs have longevity advantages.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Shouldn't have implemented PPR, you'd have a happy balance. Example from my league...

RBs over 120 points last year = 20

WRs over 120 points last year = 20

RBs have some top ceiling advantages and WRs have longevity advantages.

Thank you.

The initial concept for PPR was that in the era of the workhorse RB where only a few top RBs hogged all of the fantasy points and if you didn't get a top pick you'd miss out and essentially never have a chance is why PPR was first adopted but the era of workhorse RBs is over. And as you show the long-term outlook shows equal value in standard leagues over time so it makes no sense to pump up and over-inflate the receivers by adding on PPR for dynasty.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Main difference in dynasty drafts is all the young WR1s come off the board in the first round. Yes it is skewed. But you get twice the longevity compared to RB.

I'd like to know the average length of a dynasty league.? There's got to be some fairly high possibility that the league will be dead or you would leave the league for whatever reason within 5yrs. If that is the case then owners drafting all 23-25 yr olds are throwing money away and owners are overvaluing WRs if they draft them for the extra longevity.

As for this, it's a fair point, but if you aren't approaching a dynasty league as if it's a venture without an end date, then it destroys the entire point of it. I know of leagues going into their 15th season at least, and I'm in leagues started closer to the beginning of the "dynasty boom" that are coming up on 5 years, with no end in sight. A couple others are leagues I commish that are in their 2nd or 3rd years and again, no problems on the horizon that I can foresee.

I believe I joined 12 total leagues between 2007 and 2009. 9 of those are still going (7th to 9th years) and seem pretty healthy, 3 are defunct (two crooked commissioners). Get a good commish and you're probably in for a long run.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Shouldn't have implemented PPR, you'd have a happy balance. Example from my league...

RBs over 120 points last year = 20

WRs over 120 points last year = 20

RBs have some top ceiling advantages and WRs have longevity advantages.

What do the other 40-50 RB/WR starters look like?

 

[jmo87usc]

When I start seeing owners zig while everyone else zags, and they start winning championships by hoarding RB's instead of WR's, I'll agree with this.

Last 5 champions in my league:

2014: RB: Asiata, Oliver, Rainey WR: Dez, TY Hilton, Edelman TE: Olsen

2013: RB: Moreno, Rice, Deangelo WR: Calvin, Jordy, Cruz TE: Gonzo

2012: RB: SJax, Rice, Joique WR: Calvin, Jordy, Cruz, AJ TE: Pettigrew

2011: RB: Rice, SJax WR: Calvin, Jordy, Cruz, Harvin TE: Pettigrew

2010: RB: Mendenhall, Cadillac WR: Wallace, Harvin, Moss TE: Witten

2010 winner really got lucky to win, but in all cases you can see that having a bunch of stud RBs is not necessary to win a championship. Having three stud WRs and a top 5 TE sure seems to help though.

 

[Jrodicus]

When I start seeing owners zig while everyone else zags, and they start winning championships by hoarding RB's instead of WR's, I'll agree with this.

Last 5 champions in my league:2014: RB: Asiata, Oliver, Rainey WR: Dez, TY Hilton, Edelman TE: Olsen

2013: RB: Moreno, Rice, Deangelo WR: Calvin, Jordy, Cruz TE: Gonzo

2012: RB: SJax, Rice, Joique WR: Calvin, Jordy, Cruz, AJ TE: Pettigrew

2011: RB: Rice, SJax WR: Calvin, Jordy, Cruz, Harvin TE: Pettigrew

2010: RB: Mendenhall, Cadillac WR: Wallace, Harvin, Moss TE: Witten

2010 winner really got lucky to win, but in all cases you can see that having a bunch of stud RBs is not necessary to win a championship. Having three stud WRs and a top 5 TE sure seems to help though.

correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like the RBs put up really good numbers every year except for 2014.

 

[Uncle Grandpa]

2014: RB: Asiata, Oliver, Rainey WR: Dez, TY Hilton, Edelman TE: Olsen

2013: RB: Moreno, Rice, Deangelo WR: Calvin, Jordy, Cruz TE: Gonzo

2012: RB: SJax, Rice, Joique WR: Calvin, Jordy, Cruz, AJ TE: Pettigrew

2011: RB: Rice, SJax WR: Calvin, Jordy, Cruz, Harvin TE: Pettigrew

2010: RB: Mendenhall, Cadillac WR: Wallace, Harvin, Moss TE: Witten

Note to self: Own Calvin, Jordy, and Cruz = Win Championship.

 

[hotboyz]

its the same way in redraft leagues and I agree PPR has a lot to do with it. I even began pondering ways to actually increase RB value in my league. It may be time to look into rule changes to favor the RB, maybe we'll see more leagues start to add some sort of Points Per Carry stat.

 

[thriftyrocker]

The problem I see is not at the top of the draft. Starting the draft with a WR heavy strategy is still smart, I think. The problem I see is people overvaluing guys who may never be great. Due to the success of a few WR like OBJ and Evans, we've inflated the value of every young WR in the NFL, from Kevin White and Jordan Matthews to Davante Adams and DGB. The likelihood players of this type have long great careers is not high, and I think they are all overvalued. The probability of getting a significant # of good years out of players like Adams and DBG is lower than their comparable RB: Yeldon, Miller, Ingram, Abdullah. For young non-elite prospects, position-based longevity is meaningless compared to bust risk. Elite WRs should have long careers. Good WRs likely will not. Especially as it relates to fantasy points over replacement players. The number of producing WRs in the NFL has raised the tail of the distribution curve, reducing the value of fantasy WR2s and 3s. We take this into account when valuing older WRs who don't excite us anymore like Torrey Smith and Jeremy Maclin, but we don't take this into account when valuing prospects. We assume every young WR could be ODB, when likely almost none will be.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

The problem I see is not at the top of the draft. Starting the draft with a WR heavy strategy is still smart, I think. The problem I see is people overvaluing guys who may never be great. Due to the success of a few WR like OBJ and Evans, we've inflated the value of every young WR in the NFL, from Kevin White and Jordan Matthews to Davante Adams and DGB. The likelihood players of this type have long great careers is not high, and I think they are all overvalued. The probability of getting a significant # of good years out of players like Adams and DBG is lower than their comparable RB: Yeldon, Miller, Ingram, Abdullah. For young non-elite prospects, position-based longevity is meaningless compared to bust risk. Elite WRs should have long careers. Good WRs likely will not. Especially as it relates to fantasy points over replacement players. The number of producing WRs in the NFL has raised the tail of the distribution curve, reducing the value of fantasy WR2s and 3s. We take this into account when valuing older WRs who don't excite us anymore like Torrey Smith and Jeremy Maclin, but we don't take this into account when valuing prospects. We assume every young WR could be ODB, when likely almost none will be.

That is the key. EVERY YOUNG WR instead of selectively targeting the young WRs who historically pan out at the highest rate of success over time and those are the WRs selected in the 1st round of the NFL draft.

The other point that no one has brought up and this is of vital importance is:

You can find top scoring FF RBs on the WAIVER WIRE it seems like every year.

See last year CJ Anderson and Justin Forsett. Two undrafted guys who were flying under radar in most FF leagues who finished top-ten rushing and were widely available on most waiver wires after the season started last year.

You can find WRs off the WW as well but not as consistently as you can with RBs who seem to be available especially later in the FF season right around playoff time and injuries hit where a rookie or untested RB can produce at a high level but it typically takes more time for a rookie or untested WR to produce top-ten fantasy points during the season.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Shouldn't have implemented PPR, you'd have a happy balance. Example from my league...

RBs over 120 points last year = 20

WRs over 120 points last year = 20

RBs have some top ceiling advantages and WRs have longevity advantages.

Thank you.

The initial concept for PPR was that in the era of the workhorse RB where only a few top RBs hogged all of the fantasy points and if you didn't get a top pick you'd miss out and essentially never have a chance is why PPR was first adopted but the era of workhorse RBs is over. And as you show the long-term outlook shows equal value in standard leagues over time so it makes no sense to pump up and over-inflate the receivers by adding on PPR for dynasty.

PPR does not inflate WRs. The objective is to approximate value between the positions (RB1=WR1, RB10=WR15, RB24=WR36, etc.). It isn't to approximate them in points.

Prior year data as example shows that RBs were slightly more valuable than WRs in a PPR. It is only one year and three data points, but this is what PPR is trying to accomplish.

RB1 = 222

WR1 = 199

RB10 = 66

WR15 = 49

RB20 = 18

WR30 = 10

My opinion is that it comes down to the length of career of the RB vs WR and the ability to replace each position. An elite WR will provide more value in his career than an elite RB simply because the WR will play at a higher level longer.

As well, it is easier to replace an elite RB in a rookie draft than an elite WR. Look at this year as an example. Gurley & Gordon are rookie RBs and are currently ranked #4 and #6 on the dynasty RB rankings. Cooper, White and Parker are currently listed at #12, #13 and #24.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Shouldn't have implemented PPR, you'd have a happy balance. Example from my league...

RBs over 120 points last year = 20

WRs over 120 points last year = 20

RBs have some top ceiling advantages and WRs have longevity advantages.

Thank you.

The initial concept for PPR was that in the era of the workhorse RB where only a few top RBs hogged all of the fantasy points and if you didn't get a top pick you'd miss out and essentially never have a chance is why PPR was first adopted but the era of workhorse RBs is over. And as you show the long-term outlook shows equal value in standard leagues over time so it makes no sense to pump up and over-inflate the receivers by adding on PPR for dynasty.

PPR does not inflate WRs. The objective is to approximate value between the positions (RB1=WR1, RB10=WR15, RB24=WR36, etc.). It isn't to approximate them in points.

Prior year data as example shows that RBs were slightly more valuable than WRs in a PPR. It is only one year and three data points, but this is what PPR is trying to accomplish.

RB1 = 222

WR1 = 199

RB10 = 66

WR15 = 49

RB20 = 18

WR30 = 10

I figured it would be a matter of time before this devolved into a PPR VS. STANDARD point war. I really have no interest in that but I will make two points and leave it alone.

If you have to adjust the POINTS in order to adjust VALUE between positions then POINTS = VALUE.

Also total points come from how many mandatory different positions the league starts each week. PRR creates points that do not exist in real NFL play. By adjusting rosters you can achieve the same goal. For instance 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WRs, 1 O-Flex of choice between (RB/WR/TE).

Having mandatory two starting WRs and an open offensive flex position that can be a WR or RB creates much more team building strategy especially in a rookie dynasty draft where its known that the shelf life of WRs is longer, more than offsets approximate/comparative values between positions without awarding points for making a catch.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

2014: RB: Asiata, Oliver, Rainey WR: Dez, TY Hilton, Edelman TE: Olsen

2013: RB: Moreno, Rice, Deangelo WR: Calvin, Jordy, Cruz TE: Gonzo

2012: RB: SJax, Rice, Joique WR: Calvin, Jordy, Cruz, AJ TE: Pettigrew

2011: RB: Rice, SJax WR: Calvin, Jordy, Cruz, Harvin TE: Pettigrew

2010: RB: Mendenhall, Cadillac WR: Wallace, Harvin, Moss TE: Witten

Note to self: Own Calvin, Jordy, and Cruz = Win Championship.

Ray Rice as well. Looks like a 3x champ

Honestly none of those teams look all that great - not knocking the league because maybe that means its very balanced - but not sure it proves anything either way.

 

[jmo87usc]

When I start seeing owners zig while everyone else zags, and they start winning championships by hoarding RB's instead of WR's, I'll agree with this.

Last 5 champions in my league:2014: RB: Asiata, Oliver, Rainey (13th Overall, 29th Overall, 34th Overall) WR: Dez, TY Hilton, Edelman TE: Olsen

2013: RB: Moreno, Rice, Deangelo (4th overall, 24th overall, 26th overall) WR: Calvin, Jordy, Cruz TE: Gonzo

2012: RB: SJax, Rice, Joique (4th Overall, 17th overall, 23rd overall) WR: Calvin, Jordy, Cruz, AJ TE: Pettigrew

2011: RB: Rice, SJax (1st overall,11th overall) WR: Calvin, Jordy, Cruz, Harvin TE: Pettigrew

2010: RB: Mendenhall, Cadillac (13th overall, 30th overall) WR: Wallace, Harvin, Moss TE: Witten

2010 winner really got lucky to win, but in all cases you can see that having a bunch of stud RBs is not necessary to win a championship. Having three stud WRs and a top 5 TE sure seems to help though.

correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like the RBs put up really good numbers every year except for 2014.

You are correct that the RBs had good numbers for the most part, but it's pretty apparent that stocking up on "top tier" RB talent is not as useful as stocking up on "top tier" WR talent. Of course much of this has to do with luck and schedule too. We had a guy last year with Newton, Murray, Charles, DT, Marshall, Torrey and no good TE. Made the playoffs with a bye and his team took a dump on him week 15. Would have won the championship week 16 if he made it. So it's not so much an argument that stocking up on stud Rbs won't win a championship, as it is an argument that it's not necessary. And it seems stocking up on stud WRs is more successful.

 

[Buckna]

People have focused too much on PPR, it's a confluence of events that have gotten us to where we are today. Changes in NFL rules favoring the passing game. Excellent WR classes and poor RB classes (a lot of thought that the better young athletes aren't going into the RB position anymore due to less money and it being harder on the body.) Rookies are also succeeding sooner and more frequently, remember the 3 year rule for WR's? Now if they don't break out in year 3 people stick a fork in them.

It doesn't help that many leagues during the dynasty boom over-compensated not just with PPR, but more importantly by adding more WR starters and/or more flex starters. Almost every league is a race to get not just elite WR's but anyone with even the slightest chance to be elite or even a good WR. The only WR's that ever change hands on my leagues are the ones with question marks, major injuries or at the end of their careers and very few of these ever change hands either. No one trades the Dez's, Julio's, etc.

That's not to say it's wrong, it's just different than it was. However, we're getting a lot of threads like this now, and I think it's not neccessarily because people pine for the days of hoarding stud RB's, but because they're bored that its turned into hoarding stud WR's.

 

[Shutout]

Someone above said it's league dependent and I think that is about the truest thing that can be said.

I have, for years and years, always preached the idea of locking down franchise WRs in startup dynasties because you "set it and forget it". It's 2004 and you take Larry Fitz and you don't re-spend that resource (draft pick) for a decade. That's where the value of the WR strategy shines in the vast majority of leagues that play ppr AND also allow a flex of a WR.

With that being said, about 4-5 years ago when there was a lot of talk about the NFL going to an 18 game schedule, I shifted my personal team building strategy to go RB-heavy because I thought if the schedule ever went that way, you would need every man with a RB designation you could get your hands on because they wouldn't hold up. What I have seen the past 3 seasons is that by sowing the seeds of that strategy for one reason, I am currently enjoying some of the strongest teams across my leagues that I have ever had because they are all loaded with top RB talent and I have an advantage that nobody except the Gronk owner can come close to touching.

Due to the timing of things with so many really good WRs coming into the league and the perception (like someone above mentioned) that they ALL are the next big thing, and the ability to grab all these RBs, a team can do great because for every guy that loves his Julio and OBJ and Megatron and Brown and Thomas and Dez, I am doing just fine "Settling" with my Nelson and Aj Green (when Aj Green doesn't make most people's short list, you know you have depth at the position) because I can hang with the elites with a deep WR pool and I absolutely crush them when I am rolling out Bell AND Shady or something and they are piecing together Bradshaw for a few weeks, Jennings, etc.

It really is STILL all about supply and demand, it's just that the perception has shifted and you just have to know where your league is going to let you create the advantage.

 

[KellysHeroes]

What I have noticed lately in FF Drafts and I have adjusted my drafting style accordingly.

I usually draft WR high (if I have a high to mid 1st), afterwards I draft RB / QB / TE or IDP in that order. I have been noticing that grabbing a couple of NFL 3rd to 5th round RBs in you 2nd & 3rd FF round usually gives you a useful plug in better.

 

[Brisco54]

The problem I see is not at the top of the draft. Starting the draft with a WR heavy strategy is still smart, I think. The problem I see is people overvaluing guys who may never be great. Due to the success of a few WR like OBJ and Evans, we've inflated the value of every young WR in the NFL, from Kevin White and Jordan Matthews to Davante Adams and DGB. The likelihood players of this type have long great careers is not high, and I think they are all overvalued. The probability of getting a significant # of good years out of players like Adams and DBG is lower than their comparable RB: Yeldon, Miller, Ingram, Abdullah. For young non-elite prospects, position-based longevity is meaningless compared to bust risk. Elite WRs should have long careers. Good WRs likely will not. Especially as it relates to fantasy points over replacement players. The number of producing WRs in the NFL has raised the tail of the distribution curve, reducing the value of fantasy WR2s and 3s. We take this into account when valuing older WRs who don't excite us anymore like Torrey Smith and Jeremy Maclin, but we don't take this into account when valuing prospects. We assume every young WR could be ODB, when likely almost none will be.

There are a bunch of great comments in this thread. Here are my two cents:

1. The Learning Curve has Changed.

RBs used to be drafted on a 1 year window... show me you can get yards year one or ride the special teams train. WRs were drafted on a 3 year plan... you needed a couple of seasons to adjust to the speed of the NFL as well as get timing down with the QB. It would take 3 years to find out if a pick on you was justified. Things have changed.

Now it is rookie RBs with the steep learning curve because they have to learn new blocking techniques and schemes. If Gurley or Gordon cannot pick up NFL blocking quickly, they will not be on the field on third downs no matter how good of a natural runner they might be. Coach's now place the highest possible premium on the health of their QBs.

On the other hand, the modern offenses depend far less on timing. The quick out went from being one of the top three passes thrown to one that is actually used less than ten times a game. Thus rookie WRs have the opportunity to impact sooner.

2. The NFL is all about self-fulfilling prophecies.

Since WR are now drafted in the first round to have an instant impact... so they are placed in the lineup from day one. There were 6 WR drafted in the 1st round last year, and I believe all six started the first game they were healthy. I randomly picked the 20 year ago draft for comparison (not cherry picking, just random). There were 4 WR taken in that first round and not a single one started from the get go. Not even first overall pick Irving Fryar.

3. Opportunity is more important than talent.

Justin Forsett did not morph into a totally different person last year... he just got the right opportunity. I think Forsett shows us that the talent gap between the elite and the replacement player may not have been as significant as we thought. As a presumed starter, you get the best of the coaching staff. Matt Cassell has shown himself to be a middling at best QB since leaving NE, but in his one year of opportunity getting the best that Belichek and company put together, he looked like a hall of famer. Every one of the WR drafted in the first round this year are going to be the focus of their respective coaches. Even if they were drafted poorly and really have replacement level skills, they are still going to get the best real game opportunity of any new player on the team... even if they suck at the secondary skills like blocking or special teams.

On the other hand, if Gurley sucks at NFL blocking, the Rams are not going to risk their newly acquired QB more than they have to. At best it will be an RBBC.

4. As a group, WR production is actually becoming more consistent and predictable than RB production, particularly with PPR. It used to be that any given RB that was designated the started was a shoe in for at least 10 fantasy points. RBBCs, NFL blowouts where the losing team starts doing nothing but pass half way through the third quarter, and the number of defenses that have been built specifically to stop the run have started to erode this guarantee. The last is the most significant one. how many times have you seen 15-20 carries and less than 80 yards in the last few years? Think about it... with the exception of Lynch and AP... the other RB that are dependable are that way in part because of the points they get from the passing game. While all but the most elite WR still lay an egg every fifth game, if they are the WR1, the PPR format ensures that they will consistently get 10 fantasy points even if its 6 catches for 40 yards.

I agree with the OP. Dynasty should be willing to continually tweak its rules to provide the most balance between positions... right now that means dynasty should be looking to undue the PPR rule (if your league has it) based on the changes in the NFL game.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I am doing just fine "Settling" with my Nelson and Aj Green (when Aj Green doesn't make most people's short list, you know you have depth at the position)

Most people/lists have Green and Nelson in the WR1 range.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

PPR in dynasty has pushed WR so over the top that the current FBG dynasty rankings are every bit as flooded with WRs at the top as it was with RBs at the top 10 years ago. But people are comfortable with PPR now and not looking for change, which is ironically the same complaint they had about the non-ppr folks during the rise of PPR.

 

[Shutout]

I am doing just fine "Settling" with my Nelson and Aj Green (when Aj Green doesn't make most people's short list, you know you have depth at the position)

Most people/lists have Green and Nelson in the WR1 range.

Sure, I realize they do but the point is in dynasty startups, people are taking all the guys I listed first, creating a lot of depth where you can get Green outside of the top ten WRs (especially with people gravitating towards guys like Evans and Jeffries in addition to the others I listed). Nelson, due to age, especially in dynasty startup falls quite a bit in relation to the others.

In dynasties that are past the startup phase, I definitely see what others have mentioned as people are scarfing up any Wr they can make a decent case for and justify and these Rbs just keep landing in people's laps. TJ Yeldon might not ever be Adrian Peterson...But he could be Frank Gore. And while that might not pummel your opponents all by itself, its nice when you have a Yeldon to go along with a Lacy and with an Anderson, etc and you end up with 3-4 reliable RBs while the majority of owners are trying to figure out if Jordan Matthews is going to be a major player.

Guess it's all in how you see it but for me, in my leagues, that's the environment we have.

 

[Shutout]

PPR in dynasty has pushed WR so over the top that the current FBG dynasty rankings are every bit as flooded with WRs at the top as it was with RBs at the top 10 years ago. But people are comfortable with PPR now and not looking for change, which is ironically the same complaint they had about the non-ppr folks during the rise of PPR.

A couple of you guys have pointed out the thought of how PPR has went too far and why it came to be and why it no longer fits the model.

I completely agreed with PPR back in the day. Thought it was refreshing because it DID take something out of a league if you drew the 9 spot and you knew that the guys who picked Faulk and Shaun Alexander, etc basically got a free pass. So, it had its time and place.

I guess forward thinking leagues will start to begin new start-ups that are NOT PPR (probably will be hard to get owners to revert in existing leagues..there's always that guy(s) out there who will buck on it because they "spent years" building their team a certain way.) So maybe in the coming years we will see retro leagues that actually NOW have a better place in FF.

If I joined a non-ppr league today, I think it would be very enticing deciding between a Yeldon and a Watkins, something that looks ridiculous a year ago.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

PPR in dynasty has pushed WR so over the top that the current FBG dynasty rankings are every bit as flooded with WRs at the top as it was with RBs at the top 10 years ago. But people are comfortable with PPR now and not looking for change, which is ironically the same complaint they had about the non-ppr folks during the rise of PPR.

PPR hasn't done much to WR values. The change from standard to PPR does not project WRs into some super valued strata. It seems many are confused as to what PPR actually does and just assume PPR means it is unfairly weighted for WRs because they get the most receptions.

PPR - changes the value of WRs slightly compared to other positions. WRs score more points but it is across the board and WR36 is still getting an extra 60-70 points for their receptions as well. The WRs score more points than RBs but that is not what determines "value" of a position. If that was the case why aren't QBs being drafted high as well? They score the most fantasy points amongst the different positions.

Starting spots - this is where the value of positions are greatly affected. Starting 3 vs 2 WRs changes the value significantly for WRs and why it comes down to each league's starting lineup requirements.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Shouldn't have implemented PPR, you'd have a happy balance. Example from my league...

RBs over 120 points last year = 20

WRs over 120 points last year = 20

RBs have some top ceiling advantages and WRs have longevity advantages.

What do the other 40-50 RB/WR starters look like?

We have up to 32 starting RBs. We have up to 64 starting WRs (with 0 RB formation).

RBs over 70 points last year = 40.

WRs over 70 points last year = 57.

 

[georg013]

Excellent thread.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Getting back to the original topic of whether or not young WRs are overvalued and that young RBs are bargains. I took a look back five years because RB lifespans are not that long and its a nice break point.

I listed all 1st round picks of WRs and RBs and then list the top-three rookie seasons from the WR and RB positions for the year. You can see which of the 1st round picks and which of the top rookie producers have lasted as top producers.

2015 -

WR -First rd. picks = 4 Amari Cooper - 6 Kevin White - 14 DeVante Parker - 20 Nelson Agholor - 26 Breshad Perriman - 29 Phillip Dorsett

WR Top rookies = ???

RB - First rd. picks = 10 Todd Gurley, 15 Melvin Gordon

RB - Top rookies = ???

This is the first time in three years we've seen any RBs taken in the first round. This draft class of RBs is also supposed to be deep so logically we 'should' expect more overall production and many are expecting/hoping that Gurley and/or Gordon turn into consistent top RBs but will they perform better than the rookie WRs or later drafted RBs from this draft class? Seems like with so much incoming talent that holding a lower pick in a rookie draft can pay out well this year.

2014 -

WR -First rd. picks = 4 Sammy Watkins - 7 Mike Evans - 13 Odell Beckem - 20 Brandin Cooks - 28 Kelvin Benjamin

WR Top rookies = Odell Beckam 91 REC 1,305 YDS 12 TD, Jarvis Landry 84 REC 758 YDS 5 TD, Kelvin Benjamin 73 REC 1,008 YDS 9 TD

RB - First rd. picks = 0

RB - Top rookies = Jeremy Hill 222 ATT 1,124 YDS 9 TD, Tre Mason 179 ATT 765 YDS 4 TD, Jerick McKinnon 113 ATT 538 YDS 4 TD

No first round RB selected but five first round WRs. Watkins, Evans, ODJ, and Benjamin all hit the ground running and Cooks got injured but was right up there with the rest of the pack. It seems like the hype about the 2014 WR rookie draft class being the best is on target to be true but things change over time. Without any RBs taken in the first round we see that Jeremy Hill emerged as the top rookie RB and it looks like he will continue but Tre and Jerick may flame out over time as many other top producing rookie RBs have.

2013 -

WR -First rd. picks = 8 Tavon Austin - 27 DeAndre Hopkins - 29 Cordarrelle Patterson

WR Top rookies = Keenan Allen 71 REC 1,046 YDS 8 TD, DeAndre Hopkins 52 REC 802 YRDS 2 TD, Ace Sanders 51 REC 484 YRDS 1 TD

RB - First rd. picks = 0

RB - Top rookies = Eddie Lacy 284 ATT 1,178 YDS 11 TD, Zac Stacy 250 ATT 973 YDS 7 TD, Le'Veon Bell 244 ATT 860 YDS 8 TD

No first round RB selected and only three WRs taken, two near the bottom of the first round. The cream of this draft class is obviously Le'Veon Bell and Eddie Lacy who both look like they will continue to produce at high levels over time.

2012 -

WR -First rd. picks = 5 Justin Blackmon - 13 Michael Floyd - 20 Kendell Wright - 30 A.J. Jenkins

WR Top rookies = Justin Blackmon 64 REC 865 YDS 5 TD - Kendell Wright 64 REC 626 YDS 4 TD - Josh Gordon 50 REC 861 YDS 5 TD

RB - First rd. picks = 3 Trent Richardson, 31 Doug Martin

RB - Top rookies = Alfred Morris 335 ATT 1,613 YDS 13 TD, Doug Martin 319 ATT 1,454 YDS 11 TD, Trent Richardson 267 ATT 950 YDS 11 TD

The 'what could have been' draft with so much disappointment lost to, drugs, alcohol, and injury. Blackmon and Josh Gordon beasted and then busted due to demons. Al Morris is still around but not burning as brightly as his rook season. Doug Martin has fallen out of favor and T-Rich created so much hype and disappointment.

2011 -

WR -First rd. picks = 4 A.J. Green - 6 Julio Jones - 26 Jon Baldwin

WR Top rookies = A.J. Green 65 REC 1,057 YDS 7 TD, Greg Little 61 REC 709 YDS 2 TD, Julio Jones 54 REC 959 YDS 8 TD

RB - First rd. picks = 28 Mark Ingram

RB - Top rookies = DeMarco Murray 164 ATT 897 YDS 2 TD, Roy Helu 151 ATT 640 YDS 2 TD, Daniel Thomas 165 ATT 581 YDS 0 TD

Two of the top three first round WRs not only hit the ground running they have consistently produced over the years. DeMarco has also produced as a top RB over the years but he wasn't a first round NFL pick and now we'll get to see how well he fares without that O-Line in front of him but when he first played the Boys O-Line didn't have all of the parts in place so I think he'll continue to play well even if he doesn't get as much opportunity.

2010 -

WR -First rd. picks = 22 Demaryius Thomas - 24 Dez Bryant

WR - Top rookies = Mike Williams 65 REC 964 YDS 11 TD, Jordan Shipley 52 REC 600 YDS 3 TD, Dez Bryant 45 REC 561 YDS 6 TD

RB - First rd. picks = 9 C.J. Spiller, 12 Ryan Mathews, 30 Javid Best

RB - Top rookies = LeGarrette Blount 201 ATT 1,007 YDS 6 TD, Chris Ivory 137 ATT 716 YDS 5 TD, Ryan Mathews 158 ATT 678 YDS 7 TD

Both Demaryius and Dez have panned out well over time and C.J. has done 'pretty good' even though he's had a lot of injuries.

This is just over the past five years but its been clear to many that the NFL has devalued the RB position and has shifted to drafting more WRs. Logically their is only one RB lined up but more than double that number at WR. It seems that FF would adjust rosters to add more mandatory WR starters to adjust.

Small sample but I'm curious what others see and what their take is looking at the first round picks and the top three producers at RB and WR over the past five years and getting back to the original topic of whether or not young WRs are overvalued and young RBs are under valued.

 

[amicsta]

Getting back to the original topic of whether or not young WRs are overvalued and that young RBs are bargains. I took a look back five years because RB lifespans are not that long and its a nice break point.

I listed all 1st round picks of WRs and RBs and then list the top-three rookie seasons from the WR and RB positions for the year. You can see which of the 1st round picks and which of the top rookie producers have lasted as top producers.

2015 -

WR -First rd. picks = 4 Amari Cooper - 6 Kevin White - 14 DeVante Parker - 20 Nelson Agholor - 26 Breshad Perriman - 29 Phillip Dorsett

WR Top rookies = ???

RB - First rd. picks = 10 Todd Gurley, 15 Melvin Gordon

RB - Top rookies = ???

This is the first time in three years we've seen any RBs taken in the first round. This draft class of RBs is also supposed to be deep so logically we 'should' expect more overall production and many are expecting/hoping that Gurley and/or Gordon turn into consistent top RBs but will they perform better than the rookie WRs or later drafted RBs from this draft class? Seems like with so much incoming talent that holding a lower pick in a rookie draft can pay out well this year.

2014 -

WR -First rd. picks = 4 Sammy Watkins - 7 Mike Evans - 13 Odell Beckem - 20 Brandin Cooks - 28 Kelvin Benjamin

WR Top rookies = Odell Beckam 91 REC 1,305 YDS 12 TD, Jarvis Landry 84 REC 758 YDS 5 TD, Kelvin Benjamin 73 REC 1,008 YDS 9 TD

RB - First rd. picks = 0

RB - Top rookies = Jeremy Hill 222 ATT 1,124 YDS 9 TD, Tre Mason 179 ATT 765 YDS 4 TD, Jerick McKinnon 113 ATT 538 YDS 4 TD

No first round RB selected but five first round WRs. Watkins, Evans, ODJ, and Benjamin all hit the ground running and Cooks got injured but was right up there with the rest of the pack. It seems like the hype about the 2014 WR rookie draft class being the best is on target to be true but things change over time. Without any RBs taken in the first round we see that Jeremy Hill emerged as the top rookie RB and it looks like he will continue but Tre and Jerick may flame out over time as many other top producing rookie RBs have.

2013 -

WR -First rd. picks = 8 Tavon Austin - 27 DeAndre Hopkins - 29 Cordarrelle Patterson

WR Top rookies = Keenan Allen 71 REC 1,046 YDS 8 TD, DeAndre Hopkins 52 REC 802 YRDS 2 TD, Ace Sanders 51 REC 484 YRDS 1 TD

RB - First rd. picks = 0

RB - Top rookies = Eddie Lacy 284 ATT 1,178 YDS 11 TD, Zac Stacy 250 ATT 973 YDS 7 TD, Le'Veon Bell 244 ATT 860 YDS 8 TD

No first round RB selected and only three WRs taken, two near the bottom of the first round. The cream of this draft class is obviously Le'Veon Bell and Eddie Lacy who both look like they will continue to produce at high levels over time.

2012 -

WR -First rd. picks = 5 Justin Blackmon - 13 Michael Floyd - 20 Kendell Wright - 30 A.J. Jenkins

WR Top rookies = Justin Blackmon 64 REC 865 YDS 5 TD - Kendell Wright 64 REC 626 YDS 4 TD - Josh Gordon 50 REC 861 YDS 5 TD

RB - First rd. picks = 3 Trent Richardson, 31 Doug Martin

RB - Top rookies = Alfred Morris 335 ATT 1,613 YDS 13 TD, Doug Martin 319 ATT 1,454 YDS 11 TD, Trent Richardson 267 ATT 950 YDS 11 TD

The 'what could have been' draft with so much disappointment lost to, drugs, alcohol, and injury. Blackmon and Josh Gordon beasted and then busted due to demons. Al Morris is still around but not burning as brightly as his rook season. Doug Martin has fallen out of favor and T-Rich created so much hype and disappointment.

2011 -

WR -First rd. picks = 4 A.J. Green - 6 Julio Jones - 26 Jon Baldwin

WR Top rookies = A.J. Green 65 REC 1,057 YDS 7 TD, Greg Little 61 REC 709 YDS 2 TD, Julio Jones 54 REC 959 YDS 8 TD

RB - First rd. picks = 28 Mark Ingram

RB - Top rookies = DeMarco Murray 164 ATT 897 YDS 2 TD, Roy Helu 151 ATT 640 YDS 2 TD, Daniel Thomas 165 ATT 581 YDS 0 TD

Two of the top three first round WRs not only hit the ground running they have consistently produced over the years. DeMarco has also produced as a top RB over the years but he wasn't a first round NFL pick and now we'll get to see how well he fares without that O-Line in front of him but when he first played the Boys O-Line didn't have all of the parts in place so I think he'll continue to play well even if he doesn't get as much opportunity.

2010 -

WR -First rd. picks = 22 Demaryius Thomas - 24 Dez Bryant

WR - Top rookies = Mike Williams 65 REC 964 YDS 11 TD, Jordan Shipley 52 REC 600 YDS 3 TD, Dez Bryant 45 REC 561 YDS 6 TD

RB - First rd. picks = 9 C.J. Spiller, 12 Ryan Mathews, 30 Javid Best

RB - Top rookies = LeGarrette Blount 201 ATT 1,007 YDS 6 TD, Chris Ivory 137 ATT 716 YDS 5 TD, Ryan Mathews 158 ATT 678 YDS 7 TD

Both Demaryius and Dez have panned out well over time and C.J. has done 'pretty good' even though he's had a lot of injuries.

This is just over the past five years but its been clear to many that the NFL has devalued the RB position and has shifted to drafting more WRs. Logically their is only one RB lined up but more than double that number at WR. It seems that FF would adjust rosters to add more mandatory WR starters to adjust.

Small sample but I'm curious what others see and what their take is looking at the first round picks and the top three producers at RB and WR over the past five years and getting back to the original topic of whether or not young WRs are overvalued and young RBs are under valued.

Not sure that illustrates anything conclusive outside of the fact that RBs have been devalued by the league. Rookie year production certainly isn't the most meaningful statistic when it comes to dynasty prospects, and RBs are more likely to step in and contribute than WRs are.

For fantasy, how we draft RBs just seems to be a lot more sensitive to landing spot. The recent rookie RBs who have been drafted into places with good opportunity: Lacy, Bell, Gio, Gordon, Sankey, etc have all been pretty high picks in rookie drafts. I don't think the position is overall "undervalued" I just think there are less clear cut openings and owners have gotten wiser to the short shelf-life of RBs.

Furthermore, all of my leagues are 2 RB 3 WR and a flex type format, almost all are also PPR. Anecdotal, but I am assuming this is the norm in a lot of places now. With the chance to start 4 WR in a WR-favorable system, it makes quite bit of sense to me to pile up WRs in the drafts in the hopes that they become WR1s. Because when they do, you will have a terrific lineup in terms of scoring, and it is more likely that you will be able to get WRs who have top seasons that overlap due to the longevity of the position.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Not sure that illustrates anything conclusive outside of the fact that RBs have been devalued by the league. Rookie year production certainly isn't the most meaningful statistic when it comes to dynasty prospects, and RBs are more likely to step in and contribute than WRs are.

For fantasy, how we draft RBs just seems to be a lot more sensitive to landing spot. The recent rookie RBs who have been drafted into places with good opportunity: Lacy, Bell, Gio, Gordon, Sankey, etc have all been pretty high picks in rookie drafts. I don't think the position is overall "undervalued" I just think there are less clear cut openings and owners have gotten wiser to the short shelf-life of RBs.

Furthermore, all of my leagues are 2 RB 3 WR and a flex type format, almost all are also PPR. Anecdotal, but I am assuming this is the norm in a lot of places now. With the chance to start 4 WR in a WR-favorable system, it makes quite bit of sense to me to pile up WRs in the drafts in the hopes that they become WR1s. Because when they do, you will have a terrific lineup in terms of scoring, and it is more likely that you will be able to get WRs who have top seasons that overlap due to the longevity of the position.

Nothing is conclusive and we all know where a RB lands has value so that isn't ground breaking information.

But if you do look at the information you see that top rookie production doesn't equal top drafted rookies and that top rookie production typically doesn't carry forward meaning that if you should pick up a rookie off the wire or as a late round rookie draft pick flyer and they have a decent rookie season where it seems they will continue onward and upward, it probably won't happen which means what exactly in terms of valuable fantasy information?

It means TRADE OPPORTUNITIES! If you land one of those guys the temptation is to hold on like grim death because you don't want to miss out on upside. Its always tricky trying to time trading away a young up-and-coming player but look again at the list of top rookie producers. Not a lot of them continued unless they were not high picks in the draft for WRs or one of the first RBs taken.

And I don't play PPR, never have and never will. Personal preference doesn't mean what you or I favor is the norm but it seems many are finding an artificial component like awarding points for making a catch isn't a requirement for fantasy football.

 

[amicsta]

Not sure that illustrates anything conclusive outside of the fact that RBs have been devalued by the league. Rookie year production certainly isn't the most meaningful statistic when it comes to dynasty prospects, and RBs are more likely to step in and contribute than WRs are.

For fantasy, how we draft RBs just seems to be a lot more sensitive to landing spot. The recent rookie RBs who have been drafted into places with good opportunity: Lacy, Bell, Gio, Gordon, Sankey, etc have all been pretty high picks in rookie drafts. I don't think the position is overall "undervalued" I just think there are less clear cut openings and owners have gotten wiser to the short shelf-life of RBs.

Furthermore, all of my leagues are 2 RB 3 WR and a flex type format, almost all are also PPR. Anecdotal, but I am assuming this is the norm in a lot of places now. With the chance to start 4 WR in a WR-favorable system, it makes quite bit of sense to me to pile up WRs in the drafts in the hopes that they become WR1s. Because when they do, you will have a terrific lineup in terms of scoring, and it is more likely that you will be able to get WRs who have top seasons that overlap due to the longevity of the position.

Nothing is conclusive and we all know where a RB lands has value so that isn't ground breaking information.

But if you do look at the information you see that top rookie production doesn't equal top drafted rookies and that top rookie production typically doesn't carry forward meaning that if you should pick up a rookie off the wire or as a late round rookie draft pick flyer and they have a decent rookie season where it seems they will continue onward and upward, it probably won't happen which means what exactly in terms of valuable fantasy information?

It means TRADE OPPORTUNITIES! If you land one of those guys the temptation is to hold on like grim death because you don't want to miss out on upside. Its always tricky trying to time trading away a young up-and-coming player but look again at the list of top rookie producers. Not a lot of them continued unless they were not high picks in the draft for WRs or one of the first RBs taken.

And I don't play PPR, never have and never will. Personal preference doesn't mean what you or I favor is the norm but it seems many are finding an artificial component like awarding points for making a catch isn't a requirement for fantasy football.

My point was more that in that format, WRs aren't being valued too high nor RBs too low. I can't really comment on "standard" leagues bc I don't play them.

With respect to your comments, draft position is proven to be the highest predictor of fantasy success, so it should come as no surprise that some of the later drafted players had trouble holding on. You can see though that for the RB position, the draft position filter isn't always reliable. Guys like Martin and TRich had great rookie years and haven't been heard from since. Whereas a guy like Morris has been able to maintain his role.

I wouldn't want to suggest that this is a trend without further study, but I think my broader point with RBs is just that they are so hard to trust in dynasty since most of their fantasy value comes from opportunity and not necessarily talent. I pretty much look to target rookies that I think have a shot at playing year 1 or veterans who are clearly the top back and are maybe on the older/not as trusted side. Paying full value for a RB in dynasty seems like a risky proposition.

FWIW there are certain WR that people definitely invest too much in just because they are "young", even if they are drafted high. Someone like Benjamin is a huge sell for my after a big rookie year (though he is an older rookie so maybe he doesnt qualify). He seems like a huge benefactor of opportunity rather than talent, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Funchess take the lead role from him by year's end. This is just one example, but there are certainly layers to player evaluation past position and age.

 

[amicsta]

I also should add that I almost always look to sell a RB when they have a big season, especially if I think it's a career year. Even if I'm wrong, in most cases I feel like I'm getting the best bang for my buck on that player, and I can find RB elsewehre.