I'm making a playoff run in large part due to odell Beckham who I only have because cooks was gone and a team before me took Hyde, and Andre Williams who was included by the other team in an unsolicited offer.
This happens more than some would want to believe.
This is a great point.
Any format that allows one owner to exclusively own a player injects more luck into the equation. And making the selection process a draft (further eliminating owners from having the opportunity to acquire certain players) just increases the luck involved.
LeSean McCoy is the 9th ranked RB in total points and the 14th ranked RB in per game points.
Chances are that EVERYONE in your league had him in the top 3 at RB. Meaning that literally every owner in the league would take him if they had, say, the 1.7 pick and he slipped that far.
But if he was already gone, they might take D.Murray, Calvin, J.Graham, Lacy, etc.
So 12 guys agree that he would be the pick at 1.7 if he lasted that long. But every one of those guys would be wrong in terms of the expectation versus realization, correct? Yet only one owner, the guy who actually picked McCoy, suffers the let down of that miss on McCoy. The owner picking at 1.7 actually benefits from the 1.3 owner taking McCoy because he gets D.Murray instead, even though he, just like the 1.3 owner had McCoy over Murray in his rankings.
So, in a system where the skill of the players is largely equal, luck is playing a huge role in the outcomes.
Even in dynasty, I don't know that luck really lessens all that much. The 2009 NFL first round WR's were DHB, M.Crabtree, J.Maclin, P.Harvin, H.Nicks and K.Britt. That's six NFL first rounders and every one of them should have been on dynasty rosters that fall. So that means we all should have had a ranking for them. So here we are finishing up the 5th season for these guys and is anyone really wanting to crow about how their skill allowed them to ferret out lasting and reliable value over the past 4 years from that list? I was high on Nicks, but it was more about acquisition costs because I knew that Crabtree would cost more than Nicks. I would have jumped on Crabtree at the Nicks price given the opportunity. But I sure thought I was a genius early on for getting Nicks cheaper. Now, not so much. Because over the last 5 years, Nicks hasn't consistently paid dividends. In fact, I think you could argue that his holding costs have actually been a net negative because at some point you probably relied on him at season's start to be a starter for you and got burned.
Even the guy who landed M.Wallace, who was taken in the 3rd round (of the same NFL draft), can't really get to uppity. He's gotten more out of Wallace the last two years than a Nicks owner has. But there is also the holding costs associated with Wallace. What did the Wallace owner NOT do thinking that Wallace in Miami should at least be a safe WR2 for his team? And look at what injuries have done to Crabtree, Maclin, Harvin, Nicks and Britt just in terms of availability to even be in your lineup at all, not to mention how those injuries could have changed their career arcs.
So I'm just not seeing where luck is being lessened all that much in dynasty. Sure, dynasty lets you hang on to your hits. But is that really lessening luck...or just letting you enjoy the after glow a little longer when good luck strikes?
When it comes down to it, we really don't keep good records on how many hits we have compared to our own misses, much less any disciplined record keeping of our opponents' hits and misses. So then, how do we really know how much skill is involved to begin with?
The house in Vegas makes it's money over the long haul, right. But it isn't really so much time as it is the volume of transactions. I seriously question how finely we can define skill given the amount and nature of transactions we actually engage in. If I am not also being punished in my win column, points total or all-play record for having McCoy ranked over Murray like the McCoy owner is, how much can I really trust any assessment of our relative skill based on win column, total points or all-play record?
But the season needs to play out a bit to get a feel for how the matchups will pan out for streaming purposes. I've been hoarding defenses based on matchups for the last three weeks now.
