Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
As a follow-on to last week's Hunting for Brandon Lloyd, which seemed to be reasonably popular, I thought I'd take a look at the running back position.
Now, this is a different outlook than WR or TE - we aren't really looking at targets or a passing attack here, but we do have some general guidelines that I try and look for, again in no particular order:
1. (Situation) The offensive line better not be a trainwreck. Matt Forte appears to be an exception to this rule, so just think what he could do with more help.
2. (Situation) A passing attack helps - but at times, does hinder. That means a team should be willing to throw and throw well, just to keep the offense on a balanced (or close enough) track.
3. (Situation) The defense needs to be relatively solid. This goes well with #2, as you better have a team either holding leads or in close games in the third and fourth quarters. The last thing a true ball carrier needs for production is a hurry-up, no huddle offense against a prevent defense-running team that is already up 21-0.
4. (Opportunity) Touches. The more the better. In PPR leagues, #3 might actually help if he is the passing attack back (see Earnest Graham) but that is not going to find you consistent production.
5. (Opportunity / Talent) A path to #4 (if he is not there already). If the lead dog goes down (and typically one does fall every week or so) - what will the team do as Plan B? Will they go to a committee attack, or will it be a one-man show?
6. (Talent) Is the RB in question good as a receiver, ball carrier, goal line guy, between the tackles, scat back, blocking back, passing RB or any/all of the above? The more of these the better, which will increase 4 and 5.
7. (Opportunity) - I have to also consider the frailty of the lead RB on the team - either to get hurt or to hold on to the top role.
NOTE - There may not be a true Hillis this year. The attempt here is to outline what I'd look for if I was hoping for one, and an attempt to get you to do the same. This is a dialogue starter, not a soliloquy.
So here's what I did. I looked at the Top 48 projected guys this week and started to grade each team's opportunity and backup talents. Why 48? Take 32 starters and roughly 1/2 of the backups - seems like a decent enough starting point. It wasn't a hard and fast rule (I did look at 45-55 or so) but in general the number made sense.
After I had that list, I started to trim the list of teams down based on:
1. How many RBs are in the Top 48 per team
2. How high on the list is the RB1 back
3. How high on the list is the #2 back
That sort of clues me in to which teams have a featured back and are willing to give him a featured role - plus there's a sense of a metric of production. For example, Jahvid Best is a Top 10 RB this week but his next backup is way down the list (RB5/6 range). A stud backup would be a great pickup if you believed in Jerome Harrison (for the record, I don't).
The next metric for me was a "legitimate RB attack" - I want a team that's going to run the ball more often than not (sorry, Philadelphia). In PPR leagues this may not matter as much, so look at touches for the RB1 (ok Eagles, you're back in - for now).
The third and final look was based on the backup talent pool. This is the most subjective and really comes from either a trained eye, reading / hearing about players, or a combination. Your answers may vary and completely go with or go against mine. I'm OK with that.
So here's what I found:
Pass #1, sorting by team:
Team - Player - Team
[*]Chris "Beanie" Wells, Arizona Cardinals
[*]Matt Forte, Chicago Bears
[*]Cedric Benson, Cincinnati (Sing-Sing-addy?) Bengals
[*]Peyton Hillis, Cleveland Browns
[*]Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys
[*]Jahvid Best, Detroit Lions
[*]Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
[*]Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders
[*]LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles
[*]Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers
[*]Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers
[*]Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans
So now we have 12 guys / situations to consider. A pretty good start, but we can grade it out more.
Assigning rough weights to help me sort situations, I gave 3 points for a Top 48 back all by his lonesome, 2 points for a team that I consider that has a "RB attack" on offense, and either 1 point to a team / back that has a good sleeper behind the lead RB or 1/2 a point (to split it) if there are two.
That led me to this ranking:
6 Peyton Hillis
6 Adrian Peterson
6 Darren McFadden
6 Rashard Mendenhall
5.5 Frank Gore
5.5 Chris Johnson
5.5 Matt Forte
4 Cedric Benson
3.5 LeSean McCoy
3.5 Felix Jones
3 Chris Wells
3 Jahvid Best
OK, so walking through each team, this time in ranking order (note some ties):
Tier 1:
Cleveland - If Hillis goes down (and I mean down HARD, like Frasier, not with his sniffles this week), Montario Hardesty is likely your guy. For better or worse, he's worth owning - but I don't think he's your Hillis this year. (Again - NOTE - There may not be a true Hillis this year).
Minnesota - The offense is Adrian Peterson. If he goes down, you should be all over Toby Gerhart. I'd grab him if I had ADP and I'd squeeze him onto a roster if you like his schedule and prospects - but with CHI, DET and GB 2x each, that sounds terrible to me unless you have a stud like Peterson. Not a bad option, but not a Hillis I wouldn't think.
Oakland - Darren "Run DMC" McFadden is a top tier running back this year, especially with Oakland actually having a reasonable passing game. That said, Michael Bush is already vulturing TDs and he has proven that he can handle a big workload in the past when McFadden was out. You can do much worse than grabbing Bush as a prospect.
Pittsburgh - Rashard Mendenhall is the clear #1, but we saw last week that Isaac Redman is the clear second back to have. He mopped up nicely against Seattle, and the Steelers have a great schedule. I like Redman for rare opportunities, but if Mendy gets hurt, I really would want him on my team. Solid Hillis potential.
Tier 2:
San Francisco - The 49ers are terrible at throwing the ball and their receivers are falling off of a cliff (almost as bad as the Giants). Alex Smith scares no one, so teams will put 8-9 guys in the box against Frank Gore. San Fran is riding Gore for as much as they can get, which means he could break down. Kendall Hunter would be the play here, but the upside is limited until a passing game develops; hope for Kaepernick to start soon.
Tennessee - So much for 2,000 yards for Chris Johnson, but he should get back on track this week against Denver. Tennessee does love to run the ball, but Matt Hasselbeck has looked very good and loves Kenny Britt. Should CJ2K get banged up both Javon Ringer and Jamie Harper would split the work (about 70:30 Ringer), limiting the upside of both. Actually Hasselbeck might limit the upsides for both. If you have Johnson you should have Ringer, while if you are a gambler and want a longshot for this year with upside, consider Harper who has looked good in the preseason.
Chicago - Matt Forte is an elite back, and he's creating things on his own (much like he did at Tulane). He's used to making things happen for himself, but if he's out for an extended period I think Marion Barber and "More" Kahlil Bell split the backfield work. I like Bell's upside more, but behind that offensive line I don't hold out much hope there as Barber would be called upon to pass protect (and catch dump off passes) more. MB3 has more PPR value.
Tier 3:
Cincinnati - Well, we know that this will be happening for at least three weeks once Benson is suspended. Bernard Scott will get the bulk of the workload, but former Rutgers Scarlet Knight Brian Leonard is no slouch (and he reminds me some of Hillis). That said, Benson wasn't doing much behind that line. Was that his fault? Perhaps, but Leonard would have to really get past Scott to take over. I like him more than Scott as a dark horse.
Tier 4:
Philadelphia - The Eagles are pass-happy, and with that defense they will have to outshoot and outscore other teams. Do not expect Dion Lewis or Ronnie Brown to dominate touches if McCoy gets hurt. Plus their best RB is arguably taking snaps from the center. Some limited value in PPR leagues, but modest at best. If McCoy goes down, Lewis and Brown split a limited workload.
Dallas - This is actually interesting. I think Felix Jones is made of glass, so there's a good chance that he gets nicked (again) and sidelined for an extended period of time. If that happens, however, the team has given up on Tashard Choice (who doesn't look strong these days, for whatever reason) as they like rookie Demarco Murray more. The real sleeper - and I think he actually COULD be a Peyton Hillis - is Philip Tanner. Check him out on
.Tier 5:
Arizona - If Beanie gets hurt, I'd expect a 4-wide or 5-wide attack with Kevin Kolb reaching back and firing 50 times a week. Chester Taylor's worth very little (I like LaRod Stephens-Howling much better) but there's no Hillis here.
Detroit - I love the Detoit offense and Jahvid Best, but I don't believe that this is a RB-centric team nor do I give any legit value to Harrison or Maurice Morris. I wouldn't look to pick them up at all unless I was desperate for a plug-in.
So to sum up my "Hillis Potential" List:
[*]Michael Bush
[*]Isaac Redman
[*]Bernard Scott (higher due to 3-weeks of starting to come)
[*]Toby Gerhart
[*]Kendall Hunter
[*]Javon Ringer
[*]Marion Barber (PPR mostly)
[*]Brian Leonard (dark horse)
[*]Philip Tanner(dark horse)
[*]Kahlil Bell (very dark horse)
Now, this is a different outlook than WR or TE - we aren't really looking at targets or a passing attack here, but we do have some general guidelines that I try and look for, again in no particular order:
1. (Situation) The offensive line better not be a trainwreck. Matt Forte appears to be an exception to this rule, so just think what he could do with more help.
2. (Situation) A passing attack helps - but at times, does hinder. That means a team should be willing to throw and throw well, just to keep the offense on a balanced (or close enough) track.
3. (Situation) The defense needs to be relatively solid. This goes well with #2, as you better have a team either holding leads or in close games in the third and fourth quarters. The last thing a true ball carrier needs for production is a hurry-up, no huddle offense against a prevent defense-running team that is already up 21-0.
4. (Opportunity) Touches. The more the better. In PPR leagues, #3 might actually help if he is the passing attack back (see Earnest Graham) but that is not going to find you consistent production.
5. (Opportunity / Talent) A path to #4 (if he is not there already). If the lead dog goes down (and typically one does fall every week or so) - what will the team do as Plan B? Will they go to a committee attack, or will it be a one-man show?
6. (Talent) Is the RB in question good as a receiver, ball carrier, goal line guy, between the tackles, scat back, blocking back, passing RB or any/all of the above? The more of these the better, which will increase 4 and 5.
7. (Opportunity) - I have to also consider the frailty of the lead RB on the team - either to get hurt or to hold on to the top role.
NOTE - There may not be a true Hillis this year. The attempt here is to outline what I'd look for if I was hoping for one, and an attempt to get you to do the same. This is a dialogue starter, not a soliloquy.
So here's what I did. I looked at the Top 48 projected guys this week and started to grade each team's opportunity and backup talents. Why 48? Take 32 starters and roughly 1/2 of the backups - seems like a decent enough starting point. It wasn't a hard and fast rule (I did look at 45-55 or so) but in general the number made sense.
After I had that list, I started to trim the list of teams down based on:
1. How many RBs are in the Top 48 per team
2. How high on the list is the RB1 back
3. How high on the list is the #2 back
That sort of clues me in to which teams have a featured back and are willing to give him a featured role - plus there's a sense of a metric of production. For example, Jahvid Best is a Top 10 RB this week but his next backup is way down the list (RB5/6 range). A stud backup would be a great pickup if you believed in Jerome Harrison (for the record, I don't).
The next metric for me was a "legitimate RB attack" - I want a team that's going to run the ball more often than not (sorry, Philadelphia). In PPR leagues this may not matter as much, so look at touches for the RB1 (ok Eagles, you're back in - for now).
The third and final look was based on the backup talent pool. This is the most subjective and really comes from either a trained eye, reading / hearing about players, or a combination. Your answers may vary and completely go with or go against mine. I'm OK with that.
So here's what I found:
Pass #1, sorting by team:
Team - Player - Team
[*]Chris "Beanie" Wells, Arizona Cardinals
[*]Matt Forte, Chicago Bears
[*]Cedric Benson, Cincinnati (Sing-Sing-addy?) Bengals
[*]Peyton Hillis, Cleveland Browns
[*]Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys
[*]Jahvid Best, Detroit Lions
[*]Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
[*]Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders
[*]LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles
[*]Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers
[*]Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers
[*]Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans
So now we have 12 guys / situations to consider. A pretty good start, but we can grade it out more.
Assigning rough weights to help me sort situations, I gave 3 points for a Top 48 back all by his lonesome, 2 points for a team that I consider that has a "RB attack" on offense, and either 1 point to a team / back that has a good sleeper behind the lead RB or 1/2 a point (to split it) if there are two.
That led me to this ranking:
6 Peyton Hillis
6 Adrian Peterson
6 Darren McFadden
6 Rashard Mendenhall
5.5 Frank Gore
5.5 Chris Johnson
5.5 Matt Forte
4 Cedric Benson
3.5 LeSean McCoy
3.5 Felix Jones
3 Chris Wells
3 Jahvid Best
OK, so walking through each team, this time in ranking order (note some ties):
Tier 1:
Cleveland - If Hillis goes down (and I mean down HARD, like Frasier, not with his sniffles this week), Montario Hardesty is likely your guy. For better or worse, he's worth owning - but I don't think he's your Hillis this year. (Again - NOTE - There may not be a true Hillis this year).
Minnesota - The offense is Adrian Peterson. If he goes down, you should be all over Toby Gerhart. I'd grab him if I had ADP and I'd squeeze him onto a roster if you like his schedule and prospects - but with CHI, DET and GB 2x each, that sounds terrible to me unless you have a stud like Peterson. Not a bad option, but not a Hillis I wouldn't think.
Oakland - Darren "Run DMC" McFadden is a top tier running back this year, especially with Oakland actually having a reasonable passing game. That said, Michael Bush is already vulturing TDs and he has proven that he can handle a big workload in the past when McFadden was out. You can do much worse than grabbing Bush as a prospect.
Pittsburgh - Rashard Mendenhall is the clear #1, but we saw last week that Isaac Redman is the clear second back to have. He mopped up nicely against Seattle, and the Steelers have a great schedule. I like Redman for rare opportunities, but if Mendy gets hurt, I really would want him on my team. Solid Hillis potential.
Tier 2:
San Francisco - The 49ers are terrible at throwing the ball and their receivers are falling off of a cliff (almost as bad as the Giants). Alex Smith scares no one, so teams will put 8-9 guys in the box against Frank Gore. San Fran is riding Gore for as much as they can get, which means he could break down. Kendall Hunter would be the play here, but the upside is limited until a passing game develops; hope for Kaepernick to start soon.
Tennessee - So much for 2,000 yards for Chris Johnson, but he should get back on track this week against Denver. Tennessee does love to run the ball, but Matt Hasselbeck has looked very good and loves Kenny Britt. Should CJ2K get banged up both Javon Ringer and Jamie Harper would split the work (about 70:30 Ringer), limiting the upside of both. Actually Hasselbeck might limit the upsides for both. If you have Johnson you should have Ringer, while if you are a gambler and want a longshot for this year with upside, consider Harper who has looked good in the preseason.
Chicago - Matt Forte is an elite back, and he's creating things on his own (much like he did at Tulane). He's used to making things happen for himself, but if he's out for an extended period I think Marion Barber and "More" Kahlil Bell split the backfield work. I like Bell's upside more, but behind that offensive line I don't hold out much hope there as Barber would be called upon to pass protect (and catch dump off passes) more. MB3 has more PPR value.
Tier 3:
Cincinnati - Well, we know that this will be happening for at least three weeks once Benson is suspended. Bernard Scott will get the bulk of the workload, but former Rutgers Scarlet Knight Brian Leonard is no slouch (and he reminds me some of Hillis). That said, Benson wasn't doing much behind that line. Was that his fault? Perhaps, but Leonard would have to really get past Scott to take over. I like him more than Scott as a dark horse.
Tier 4:
Philadelphia - The Eagles are pass-happy, and with that defense they will have to outshoot and outscore other teams. Do not expect Dion Lewis or Ronnie Brown to dominate touches if McCoy gets hurt. Plus their best RB is arguably taking snaps from the center. Some limited value in PPR leagues, but modest at best. If McCoy goes down, Lewis and Brown split a limited workload.
Dallas - This is actually interesting. I think Felix Jones is made of glass, so there's a good chance that he gets nicked (again) and sidelined for an extended period of time. If that happens, however, the team has given up on Tashard Choice (who doesn't look strong these days, for whatever reason) as they like rookie Demarco Murray more. The real sleeper - and I think he actually COULD be a Peyton Hillis - is Philip Tanner. Check him out on
.Tier 5:
Arizona - If Beanie gets hurt, I'd expect a 4-wide or 5-wide attack with Kevin Kolb reaching back and firing 50 times a week. Chester Taylor's worth very little (I like LaRod Stephens-Howling much better) but there's no Hillis here.
Detroit - I love the Detoit offense and Jahvid Best, but I don't believe that this is a RB-centric team nor do I give any legit value to Harrison or Maurice Morris. I wouldn't look to pick them up at all unless I was desperate for a plug-in.
So to sum up my "Hillis Potential" List:
[*]Michael Bush
[*]Isaac Redman
[*]Bernard Scott (higher due to 3-weeks of starting to come)
[*]Toby Gerhart
[*]Kendall Hunter
[*]Javon Ringer
[*]Marion Barber (PPR mostly)
[*]Brian Leonard (dark horse)
[*]Philip Tanner(dark horse)
[*]Kahlil Bell (very dark horse)
Thanks.
to follow up on later. Nice hunting threads, wr and rb. While rb is mucho harder to find a point producing player each week. This may not be the "topic", but using these guidelines. Can also work for finding this weeks under the radar... rb. or wr...
That's how I lean on the situation too. Taiwan is probably unrostered too, while you may have to trade for Bush.
