I believe the economy may be really bad right now. (1 Viewer)

[Demian]

More evidence, I work for a Fortune 500 US retailer who laid off about 20% of their tech people this week.

 

[Orange&Blue]

But unfortunately capitalism is not designed to be fair. It does not exist.

Capitalism isn't fair. It's efficient.

we got rid of capitalism a long time ago

 

[MAC_32]

You guys realize that I arbitrarily used the $80k a year number for somebody supporting a family ...

Right on. A lot more meaningful to look at it as "household income" than "a young single person's income".

Around here, there is a general ethic to avoid public schools. And, no, it's not as simple as "pick up and move to a good district!". Take my word on that or don't.

So $80k for a local household ... if they're selling out hard to put two kids through Catholic school (huge around here, tons of non-Catholic kids, too), $80k might as well be $40k. The right answers for how households need to spend their money is not as pat as all that.

I think I've finally arrived at the acceptance you're getting at here. My wife and I both have jobs that would be single income breadwinners a few decades ago. Now? We can either save or educate, but can't do both. I don't share that for sympathy cause there is an easy path we could take - put the kids in the ****ty local public school. I share that because we have relatively good jobs and that's our reality. What about the greater % that don't.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

More evidence, I work for a Fortune 500 US retailer who laid off about 20% of their tech people this week.

How many people did they hire in the post-covid boom?

 

[Demian]

More evidence, I work for a Fortune 500 US retailer who laid off about 20% of their tech people this week.

How many people did they hire in the post-covid boom?

I'm just guessing but maybe half as many were hired in that time period. They didn't hold back with the layoffs. It included people with tenure not just contractors and newbies.

 

[ChiefD]

I think I've finally arrived at the acceptance you're getting at here. My wife and I both have jobs that would be single income breadwinners a few decades ago. Now? We can either save or educate, but can't do both. I don't share that for sympathy cause there is an easy path we could take - put the kids in the ****ty local public school. I share that because we have relatively good jobs and that's our reality. What about the greater % that don't.

This is us here in KC.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

It's harsh, but the reality is if you've been making $80k/yr for the last 10-15 years and aren't relatively well off and secure now, you have no one to blame but yourself.

The problem is that, due to crazy friendly economic policy, things have just been way too easy the last 10-15 years. And people have gotten too comfortable with that. Everyone spends like crazy, is stupid with their money, and just when they're about to learn a hard lesson and change things, the government shifts its already overly friendly policy to be even easier to bail everyone out, and the only thing anyone learns is that they can keep being irresponsible and they'll never have to pay for it.

The stock market is up a zillion percent the last 15 years. Real estate is up two zillion percent. And every year we got new laws and tax advantages to leverage all of our real estate equity and turn that free money into even more free money. And all of this and the low rates drive inflation, which overwhelmingly affects the people that can't take advantage of any of those things.

So for me, I can watch all of my assets and money go up by stupid amounts every few years and a $2 increase in the price of bread is completely negligible. But for the low wage single mom of 3 that has never had an opportunity to get involved in those assets, that bread price increase is a BIG deal.

And now, finally, after all this time the lower wage people are finally starting to get a bone thrown their way via economic policy, and all the upper middle class and above that have had super easy mode for the last 15 years act like this is the end of times. Which is not an uncommon reaction people have to things. People get used to insane privilege so much that when that privilege starts being balanced back out even a little bit they view it as inequality.

Another part of it is just how we've changed as a society, valuing travel and experiences, and also what we've gotten used to on that front, as the government continued to use monetary policy to sustain an unsustainable economy for way longer than it should have.

We can think "oh many our parents made less money and they never had to worry about things". But think about your parent's lives. When you were a kid, how many big family vacations did you go on? How often did you go out to restaurants? Now compare that to what your kids have experienced with you as their parents.

I'm a fine art photographer on the side and I sell my stuff at art shows. There's nary a person that walks into my booth that doesn't go around to all the expensive places I took photos saying "been there, yep been to that one, seen that in person". These people are in there whining about how tight things are (for some reason this is always a place people like to get their political/economic complaints off their chest) 2 minutes after they pointed to my photo from Kauai and told me "I was just there last month" and pointed to my pic of Italy and were like "we just did our 5th trip there earlier this year". Yeah, things sound really "tight".

There's nothing wrong with spending money and focusing more on experiences. But far too many people did it too much and at the expense of making good decisions with their money at a time where you could almost do no wrong with money, other than spend all of it and count on the economy growing at an unsustainable pace forever.

I would like to subscribe to your news letter. Agree 100%.

I don't need to belaber my points to death, but I don't believe this country has understood adversity since Vietnam. Could you imagine the upheaval if there was a need for a draft? Do people know how to spell selective service card?

oh, and get off my lawn ... amazon is 3 stops away!!1!!11!

Just wait till the sea rises a couple feet and/or a Cat 5 cruises across Miami, or something suitably large and spinny hits Manhattan.

They’ve been saying the sea would rise for like 70 years.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

This thread has gotten weird. If you earn $80K per year, that's about twice the median income the US. You're doing fine at that income, and if you aren't, it's entirely your doing. I have no idea why people are talking about $80K types as if they're one paycheck away from living out of their car.

It's not quite that harrowing at $80k ... but it's miles away from not living check-to-check. To be clear, I'm talking about an $80k/year household with two or three minor children. Two professional adults making $160k together and supporting a couple-of-kids household is a different thing than the same household getting by on half that.

You're talking about $80k the way I'd talk about, say $200k or so. Granted, where you live and where I live (SE Louisiana), you can make a comfortable existence out of $80k gross annually ... but IMHO it takes some doing and your life will be pretty frill-free even around here. Making $80-100k and still living more or less check-to-check is not some "only an idiot" eff-up existence IMHO -- I know too many people in that boat.

The magic bit of info that a lot of people don't have about money is that you MUST save** and your savings have to (eventually) be shunted into money-earning vehicles. When your money makes money ... yeah, you can be OK on $80k/year and have some extras in your life.


** ideally, save a relative boatload as a young person and build an investable nest egg.

I get that $80K isn't FU money. You can't just do whatever you want at that level of income. No objection there.

But I can't help but notice that the people in this thread telling me how hard it is to get by on such an income are also talking about how they have to live near the center of a major city, and they want to be able to pay for private school. Well, sorry, but that's not how it works. There are huge swaths of the country with good public schools and housing prices low enough to make $80K a very comfortable household income, but those places don't include San Francisco or NYC. If you choose to live in an expensive city with dysfunctional schools, I don't see why that's any more defensible than somebody who leases a new car every three years and owns a fancy boat. These are bad financial decision made by people who are bad at handling their finances. That's the point.

 

[Doug B]

There are huge swaths of the country with good public schools and housing prices low enough to make $80K a very comfortable household income, but those places don't include San Francisco or NYC.

The individual situations are never really simple like that -- "Just pick up and go somewhere else!" Some can do that, sure -- not all, though.

Besides, if we're being honest: Where you and I live (respectively), there really aren't that many $80k/yr jobs. The remote-work revolution has been a nice counter (for white-collar folks who could take advantage) ... but now a few employers have caught on and a starting to compensate employees based on where they live (anecdote from another board).

 

[Alex P Keaton]

More evidence, I work for a Fortune 500 US retailer who laid off about 20% of their tech people this week.

Craziness. How dare you stick to the OP’s actual topic.

 

[Mitchie]

This thread has gotten weird. If you earn $80K per year, that's about twice the median income the US. You're doing fine at that income, and if you aren't, it's entirely your doing. I have no idea why people are talking about $80K types as if they're one paycheck away from living out of their car.

It's not quite that harrowing at $80k ... but it's miles away from not living check-to-check. To be clear, I'm talking about an $80k/year household with two or three minor children. Two professional adults making $160k together and supporting a couple-of-kids household is a different thing than the same household getting by on half that.

You're talking about $80k the way I'd talk about, say $200k or so. Granted, where you live and where I live (SE Louisiana), you can make a comfortable existence out of $80k gross annually ... but IMHO it takes some doing and your life will be pretty frill-free even around here. Making $80-100k and still living more or less check-to-check is not some "only an idiot" eff-up existence IMHO -- I know too many people in that boat.

The magic bit of info that a lot of people don't have about money is that you MUST save** and your savings have to (eventually) be shunted into money-earning vehicles. When your money makes money ... yeah, you can be OK on $80k/year and have some extras in your life.


** ideally, save a relative boatload as a young person and build an investable nest egg.

I get that $80K isn't FU money. You can't just do whatever you want at that level of income. No objection there.

But I can't help but notice that the people in this thread telling me how hard it is to get by on such an income are also talking about how they have to live near the center of a major city, and they want to be able to pay for private school. Well, sorry, but that's not how it works. There are huge swaths of the country with good public schools and housing prices low enough to make $80K a very comfortable household income, but those places don't include San Francisco or NYC. If you choose to live in an expensive city with dysfunctional schools, I don't see why that's any more defensible than somebody who leases a new car every three years and owns a fancy boat. These are bad financial decision made by people who are bad at handling their finances. That's the point.

Salaries tend to be higher in big cities.

 

[Ilov80s]

They’ve been saying the sea would rise for like 70 years.

It has been rising.

 

[TripItUp]

I just find it hard to have empathy for people that claim to not have enough money.

Most of us go to good enough schools that can get us good enough degrees to make enough money to live somewhere comfortably.

if you didn't make the right life decisions, that's a you problem.

Didn't to well in school? your fault.

Didin't save your money? your fault.

Had kids you can't afford? your fault.

Picked the wrong degree? your fault.

Live in an expensive place or above your means? your fault.


The culture of blaming everybody else for your life decisions is ridiculous.

*this is not a political post

 

[TripItUp]

back to the original topic

There are some real indicators out there, here are a few:

1) Cost to insure US treasury debt now more expensive than in 2008

2) Home Price to Household income ratio now worse than it was in 2008

 

[The Z Machine]

Home Price to Household income ratio now worse than it was in 2008

This was inevitable after the lack of homebuilding in the 2000s. Rising population + fewer homes in the market = higher prices.

Since the rising home prices helped fuel the consumer economy, and a large voting blocks like baby boomers benefitted from these rising prices, no one wanted to rock the boat.

Of course wages weren't able to keep up.

 

[Terminalxylem]

I just find it hard to have empathy for people that claim to not have enough money.

Most of us go to good enough schools that can get us good enough degrees to make enough money to live somewhere comfortably.

if you didn't make the right life decisions, that's a you problem.

Didn't to well in school? your fault.

Didin't save your money? your fault.

Had kids you can't afford? your fault.

Picked the wrong degree? your fault.

Live in an expensive place or above your means? your fault.


The culture of blaming everybody else for your life decisions is ridiculous.

*this is not a political post

In your opinion, what percentage of people are struggling financially from poor decisions?

Due to setbacks related to upbringing (poor schools/role models) and/or circumstances beyond their control (failing health, unanticipated loss), I say half, at most.

Also, who amongst us hasn't made a bad life decision? I know I've made a ton, and consider myself lucky to be in a good place despite some poor choices.

 

[Mitchie]

I just find it hard to have empathy for people that claim to not have enough money.

Most of us go to good enough schools that can get us good enough degrees to make enough money to live somewhere comfortably.

if you didn't make the right life decisions, that's a you problem.

Didn't to well in school? your fault.

Didin't save your money? your fault.

Had kids you can't afford? your fault.

Picked the wrong degree? your fault.

Live in an expensive place or above your means? your fault.


The culture of blaming everybody else for your life decisions is ridiculous.

*this is not a political post

Most people vastly underestimate the amount that luck plays in their lives.

 

[Terminalxylem]

I just find it hard to have empathy for people that claim to not have enough money.

Most of us go to good enough schools that can get us good enough degrees to make enough money to live somewhere comfortably.

if you didn't make the right life decisions, that's a you problem.

Didn't to well in school? your fault.

Didin't save your money? your fault.

Had kids you can't afford? your fault.

Picked the wrong degree? your fault.

Live in an expensive place or above your means? your fault.


The culture of blaming everybody else for your life decisions is ridiculous.

*this is not a political post

Most people vastly underestimate the amount that luck plays in their lives.

Absolutely. Being born in America is a great start, but a good upbringing, health and support system are far from guaranteed. And many opportunities are the purely the result of being in the right place and the right time.

 

[massraider]

There are huge swaths of the country with good public schools and housing prices low enough to make $80K a very comfortable household income, but those places don't include San Francisco or NYC.

The individual situations are never really simple like that -- "Just pick up and go somewhere else!" Some can do that, sure -- not all, though.

Besides, if we're being honest: Where you and I live (respectively), there really aren't that many $80k/yr jobs. The remote-work revolution has been a nice counter (for white-collar folks who could take advantage) ... but now a few employers have caught on and a starting to compensate employees based on where they live (anecdote from another board).

I just find it hard to have empathy for people that claim to not have enough money.

Most of us go to good enough schools that can get us good enough degrees to make enough money to live somewhere comfortably.

if you didn't make the right life decisions, that's a you problem.

Didn't to well in school? your fault.

Didin't save your money? your fault.

Had kids you can't afford? your fault.

Picked the wrong degree? your fault.

Live in an expensive place or above your means? your fault.


The culture of blaming everybody else for your life decisions is ridiculous.

*this is not a political post

Yes, yes, I'm sure when you were entering college you avoided certain fields because they mightbe replaced by an algorithm or artificial intelligence.

Not everyone had the same sober, objective thousand foot view of the job economy you clearly did a quarter century ago.

Well done, you.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I’m surprised Trip didn’t work fat people and Elvis Costello into that manifesto.

 

[Harry Manback]

This must be a naive question, but: Why is the glass ceiling on wages so strong?

It seems like almost all employers consider annual or biannual cost-of-living raises to be crazy talk. What made wages rise between, say, the 1970s and 2007 or so? And are similar forces just not around today?

Because if the billionaires don't keep making more money than the quarter before the economy will collapse! We need the rich to get even richer because of...reasons, and if you disagree you hate capitalism and America and are a communist.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

There are huge swaths of the country with good public schools and housing prices low enough to make $80K a very comfortable household income, but those places don't include San Francisco or NYC.

The individual situations are never really simple like that -- "Just pick up and go somewhere else!" Some can do that, sure -- not all, though.

Besides, if we're being honest: Where you and I live (respectively), there really aren't that many $80k/yr jobs. The remote-work revolution has been a nice counter (for white-collar folks who could take advantage) ... but now a few employers have caught on and a starting to compensate employees based on where they live (anecdote from another board).

I just find it hard to have empathy for people that claim to not have enough money.

Most of us go to good enough schools that can get us good enough degrees to make enough money to live somewhere comfortably.

if you didn't make the right life decisions, that's a you problem.

Didn't to well in school? your fault.

Didin't save your money? your fault.

Had kids you can't afford? your fault.

Picked the wrong degree? your fault.

Live in an expensive place or above your means? your fault.


The culture of blaming everybody else for your life decisions is ridiculous.

*this is not a political post

Yes, yes, I'm sure when you were entering college you avoided certain fields because they mightbe replaced by an algorithm or artificial intelligence.

Not everyone had the same sober, objective thousand foot view of the job economy you clearly did a quarter century ago.

Well done, you.

Not sure why I was quoted here. I'm talking about people who insist on living in expensive parts of the country and sending their kids to private school. Those are financially expensive decisions that people are making on their own right now, not with-the-benefit-of-hindsight calls like picking a major that didn't quite work out. Nobody's forcing anybody to live someplace with ****ty public schools.

(Also, to be clear, I have no issue with people who choose to live in expensive locations. If that's how you choose to spend your money, cool. Opening up your wallet to live in a place you enjoy seems like a prudent decision to me, as long as you're skimping elsewhere of course. Just asking folks to see that that's a choice, not an accident of birth.)

 

[massraider]

Not sure why I was quoted here

I'm not really sure how I managed to quote you either, so I share your confusion.

 

[Rich Conway]

It seems odd to me to say $80K is a lot of money and one shouldn't be having problems on $80K salary without taking into account cost of living in the area. If the same person could only find a $50K salary in a lower cost of living area, we shouldn't be suggesting that "living in the high cost of living area is a poor choice".

 

[massraider]

In the northeastern areas I'm familiar with, rural or urban, if an area has great public schools, you aren't buying a house on 80 grand.

The squeeze will only get worse, unless you happen to think improving public schools is high on anyone's priority list.

 

[Gatorman]

Not sure why I was quoted here. I'm talking about people who insist on living in expensive parts of the country and sending their kids to private school. Those are financially expensive decisions that people are making on their own right now, not with-the-benefit-of-hindsight calls like picking a major that didn't quite work out. Nobody's forcing anybody to live someplace with ****ty public schools.

(Also, to be clear, I have no issue with people who choose to live in expensive locations. If that's how you choose to spend your money, cool. Opening up your wallet to live in a place you enjoy seems like a prudent decision to me, as long as you're skimping elsewhere of course. Just asking folks to see that that's a choice, not an accident of birth.)

im not sure what you mean by “expensive“ parts of the country. I mean, I do, but every part of our country needs to have a mix of expensive and inexpensive housing to be able to run that area. New York is a pretty decent example as it is certainly an expensive place to live but there are “cheap” pockets of surrounding areas. Miami (otoh) is seeing the housing market pricing out essential workers like nurses and police etc bc there isn’t enough affordable housing.

as for “sending kids to private schools”. The right has made it almost one of their bedrock principals to defund public education in leui of subsidizing their for profit private schools and religious programs. In doing so the ability of public schools to do their job keeps getting harder and harder and the squeeze to get your kid into college makes that harder still. I live in a pretty expensive neighborhood in Miami (it wasn’t when I bought it but now it’s outrageous). The public school my kids were zoned for was brand spanking new at the time and pulled in some of the best teachers from the district. The “across the tracks” elementary was a low income area and the school was older, more run down, etc.

to pretend that this is somehow an “individual’s “ choice when so many at the top of the food chain skew the rules to benefit themselves is asinine. A great kid from a poor neighborhood can excel in this country but so can a below average kid from a more well to do area. A poor diamond and a rich lump of coal have about the same chance of success in the USA.

 

[TripItUp]

Most people vastly underestimate the amount that luck plays in their lives.

I would argue the exact opposite.

 

[TripItUp]

In your opinion, what percentage of people are struggling financially from poor decisions?

I would say roughly 60% for those reasons you mentioned.

Also, who amongst us hasn't made a bad life decision? I know I've made a ton, and consider myself lucky to be in a good place despite some poor choices.

Exactly, we live in such an incredible country that you can **** up and still recover multiple times. Yet here we are, half the country playing the victim card.

 

[Judge Smails]

As far as retail goes, spaces with large square footages are having trouble, but that’s been going on for years. Most of the businesses that were hurt or shut down by Covid are up and running again- the exception are some of the chain restaurants

I wouldn't want to be long on these chain restaurants that rely on middle class and lower middle class going out and spending disposable income.

Red Lobster is closing down like 700 locations. The 3 Cracker Barrels that opened up in Portland like 5 years ago abruptly shut down and let everybody go. The F is somebody going to do with a freshly built Cracker Barrel building?

I'm thinking put in a WalMart. They need more of those in Portland, right?

Too soon?

To be fair, Portland area residents fought against Walmart coming here for years. There was one on 82nd (Portland's version of 8 Mile) and that was it. Then they started popping up here and now they're gone again? So.....store nobody wanted here packed up and left. Story at 11?

The Cracker Barrel entry here was just dumb. Not every populace wants bland breakfast items smothered in highly caloric gravy with a gift shop selling pickled okra and singing, wall-mounted bass.

Yeah we could do without the chains. But no matter the business, we have to stop this carte blanche thievery that’s happening on the West Coast. Tired of these soft prosecutors and laws.

 

[Mitchie]

Most people vastly underestimate the amount that luck plays in their lives.

I would argue the exact opposite.

the opposite of what? that most people underestimate luck or that luck plays a greater role?

 

[Mitchie]

in any case, there have been studies on this if interested

The Role of Luck in Life Success Is Far Greater Than We Realized

Are the most successful people in society just the luckiest people?

blogs.scientificamerican.com

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Not sure why I was quoted here. I'm talking about people who insist on living in expensive parts of the country and sending their kids to private school. Those are financially expensive decisions that people are making on their own right now, not with-the-benefit-of-hindsight calls like picking a major that didn't quite work out. Nobody's forcing anybody to live someplace with ****ty public schools.

(Also, to be clear, I have no issue with people who choose to live in expensive locations. If that's how you choose to spend your money, cool. Opening up your wallet to live in a place you enjoy seems like a prudent decision to me, as long as you're skimping elsewhere of course. Just asking folks to see that that's a choice, not an accident of birth.)

im not sure what you mean by “expensive“ parts of the country. I mean, I do, but every part of our country needs to have a mix of expensive and inexpensive housing to be able to run that area. New York is a pretty decent example as it is certainly an expensive place to live but there are “cheap” pockets of surrounding areas. Miami (otoh) is seeing the housing market pricing out essential workers like nurses and police etc bc there isn’t enough affordable housing.

as for “sending kids to private schools”. The right has made it almost one of their bedrock principals to defund public education in leui of subsidizing their for profit private schools and religious programs. In doing so the ability of public schools to do their job keeps getting harder and harder and the squeeze to get your kid into college makes that harder still. I live in a pretty expensive neighborhood in Miami (it wasn’t when I bought it but now it’s outrageous). The public school my kids were zoned for was brand spanking new at the time and pulled in some of the best teachers from the district. The “across the tracks” elementary was a low income area and the school was older, more run down, etc.

to pretend that this is somehow an “individual’s “ choice when so many at the top of the food chain skew the rules to benefit themselves is asinine. A great kid from a poor neighborhood can excel in this country but so can a below average kid from a more well to do area. A poor diamond and a rich lump of coal have about the same chance of success in the USA.

But . . . you chose which school district to live in. That wasn't an accident. That's all I'm saying.

We I retire, we're probably going to relocate, and we won't be giving a rip about K-12 school quality when picking a retirement location. I'm certainly not saying that this should be decision rule for everyone. And if parents decide that they want to shell out for private school for some reason because the alternative of moving to a place with good public schools is worse somehow, cool, no problem. Just own that decision and quit pretending like it has something to do with your genetic lottery. It's a personal lifestyle choice, and it's the sort of thing that middle-class people need to be very selective about.

 

[The Z Machine]

One of the biggest determinants for a person's wealth is their parent's wealth. Class mobility in the USA is by and large an illusion; exceptions do not make the rule.

 

[Stoneworker]

in any case, there have been studies on this if interested

The study is BS.

First off, "luck", "success", and what a society "realizes" are all subjective concepts that are impossible to measure and/or quantify.

Beyond that, the study defines "talent" as "whatever personal characteristics enable someone to exploit lucky opportunities. And then it uses a bunch of self-controlled traits such as "skill, determination and emotional intelligence" to define these personal characteristics.

The reality is that random (i.e. "lucky") opportunities and events happen to everybody on a daily basis, but those that are motivated and work hard to develop self-controlled traits are the ones best able to take advantage of those events (i.e. "success").

The whole "people underestimate luck's role in success" statement just reeks of victim mentality (not a talent, but certainly self-controlled).

 

[SoBeDad]

Private versus public schools is not as simple as it seems. Many urban areas have good magnet and charter schools which are partly based on a lottery. I've seen coworkers who are renting move multiple times chasing good schools for their kids, a choice which usually involves a much longer commute. Marriage is also a lottery, which often ends in divorce, which is costly in many ways, including alimony for about 10% of divorcees.

Miami is a hot region for building skyscraper condos and offices and warehouses. But residential sales are down 40% in quarter 1. "Miami’s blossoming tech hub hits rough patch, as startup capital gets scarce", a headline from today's Miami Herald. And nationwide, "angel and seed investing fell by 53.1% to $3.3 billion compared to the beginning of last year." Hiring is definitely slowing down.

 

[Mitchie]

in any case, there have been studies on this if interested

The study is BS.

First off, "luck", "success", and what a society "realizes" are all subjective concepts that are impossible to measure and/or quantify.

Beyond that, the study defines "talent" as "whatever personal characteristics enable someone to exploit lucky opportunities. And then it uses a bunch of self-controlled traits such as "skill, determination and emotional intelligence" to define these personal characteristics.

The reality is that random (i.e. "lucky") opportunities and events happen to everybody on a daily basis, but those that are motivated and work hard to develop self-controlled traits are the ones best able to take advantage of those events (i.e. "success").

The whole "people underestimate luck's role in success" statement just reeks of victim mentality (not a talent, but certainly self-controlled).

Is it still a victim mentality if the opinion is coming from successful people?

 

[Gatorman]

One of the biggest determinants for a person's wealth is their parent's wealth. Class mobility in the USA is by and large an illusion; exceptions do not make the rule.

It's weird. I agree with you, but I think there is a tipping point. My parents were downright wealthy in Cuba, but they came to Miami penniless. Both worked in Miami and both lived well beyond their means (but did manage to buy a house 10 years after coming here) and their "goal" was to give their kids whatever they needed to succeed.

It may be an immigrant thing, or a Jewish thing (probably immigrant in general) but most who come here want a toe hold so they can lift their children up to more success in future generations. There may be a larger "malaise" for those who have been in the US for generations and haven't "made it" or for those in communities that were actively redlined and discriminated against.

 

[TripItUp]

The study is BS.

First off, "luck", "success", and what a society "realizes" are all subjective concepts that are impossible to measure and/or quantify.

Beyond that, the study defines "talent" as "whatever personal characteristics enable someone to exploit lucky opportunities. And then it uses a bunch of self-controlled traits such as "skill, determination and emotional intelligence" to define these personal characteristics.

The reality is that random (i.e. "lucky") opportunities and events happen to everybody on a daily basis, but those that are motivated and work hard to develop self-controlled traits are the ones best able to take advantage of those events (i.e. "success").

The whole "people underestimate luck's role in success" statement just reeks of victim mentality (not a talent, but certainly self-controlled).

 

[massraider]

There may be a larger "malaise" for those who have been in the US for generations

Ha, I would say this is a safe bet.

 

[SoBeDad]

My roommate (for 7 years!) is a director of an Easter Seals preschool in Overtown. Many students come from the Hope Center for abused women. If the Amber Alert woke you up Saturday at 5am a week ago ... it was 3 year old from her center. Some kids are children of recent arrivals from Venezuela. She's trying her best to raise the standards of the school to help her students ... but it's an uphill battle against bureaucracy, and many parents with their own problems.

Contrast that with her time as a preschool teacher at an expensive preschool at Nova University. The kids' parents were heavily involved in the education process. She developed a STEAM program on Saturdays, science, algorithmic thinking using Cubeto, for extra $$$. During the pandemic and after she left Nova, she offered private lessons virtually and then in-person to teach more math, subsidizing, language too. These kids also have private swimming and music lessons and more. What a head start. She's trying to implement some enrichment activities at the Overtown Center.

But for the grace of God go I.

 

[Todem]

This thread has gotten weird. If you earn $80K per year, that's about twice the median income the US. You're doing fine at that income, and if you aren't, it's entirely your doing. I have no idea why people are talking about $80K types as if they're one paycheck away from living out of their car.

It's not quite that harrowing at $80k ... but it's miles away from not living check-to-check. To be clear, I'm talking about an $80k/year household with two or three minor children. Two professional adults making $160k together and supporting a couple-of-kids household is a different thing than the same household getting by on half that.

You're talking about $80k the way I'd talk about, say $200k or so. Granted, where you live and where I live (SE Louisiana), you can make a comfortable existence out of $80k gross annually ... but IMHO it takes some doing and your life will be pretty frill-free even around here. Making $80-100k and still living more or less check-to-check is not some "only an idiot" eff-up existence IMHO -- I know too many people in that boat.

The magic bit of info that a lot of people don't have about money is that you MUST save** and your savings have to (eventually) be shunted into money-earning vehicles. When your money makes money ... yeah, you can be OK on $80k/year and have some extras in your life.


** ideally, save a relative boatload as a young person and build an investable nest egg.

I get that $80K isn't FU money. You can't just do whatever you want at that level of income. No objection there.

But I can't help but notice that the people in this thread telling me how hard it is to get by on such an income are also talking about how they have to live near the center of a major city, and they want to be able to pay for private school. Well, sorry, but that's not how it works. There are huge swaths of the country with good public schools and housing prices low enough to make $80K a very comfortable household income, but those places don't include San Francisco or NYC. If you choose to live in an expensive city with dysfunctional schools, I don't see why that's any more defensible than somebody who leases a new car every three years and owns a fancy boat. These are bad financial decision made by people who are bad at handling their finances. That's the point.

I am in the top 5%…..my son went K-12 to public school. Granted I made sure I lived in an A rated school district. But while several of my neighbors went the private school route with their kids 6-12 education (hey their choice and I respect it) I was able to save 30-35K a year not going that route. Did I pay slightly higher taxes? Yeah....but well worth it.

Now my son is a high level baseball player going out of state to play ball in Raleigh NC on a 65% academic scholarship. The rest we are easily covering with all that money we saved on not going private with his education and invested it into a 529 and UTMA. Where the returns averaged 15% a year for the last 18 years.

My childhood......all public schools. K-12 as well as State College.

Everyone will do what they want. I happen to live in an area where it is a keeping up with joneses mentality......good luck with that long term. I became very successful going to public schools, playing team sports for many years and cutting my teeth working from the age of 15 onward as well. I came from a good home....I would consider upper middle....I am a first generation American Jew in my family. My mom was born in Israel and my father in Germany. Both set’s of my grandparents survived the Third Reich. So you can imagine the upbringing my parents as well as myself had.

Greatest country on the planet. I take nothing for granted.

Back on topic.....the economy is slowing down.....moderate recession is probably imminent.....and needs to be allowed to happen to recalibrate. The Fed will not have an itchy trigger finger this time like they did in 2019 under immense political pressure to cut rates again so early. I know the Fed says they act completely independent of the political landscape.....but this 53 year old dude knows better.....a lot better. Second half of 2024 the rate cuts will probably begin to get us to a more accommodative place.....but not what we saw the last 14 years. God no. The new normal will be probably at a prime rate of 4.50 to 5%. Right now we are at a prime rate of 8% up from 3.25% just 12 or so months ago......the speed at which these raises have been done is unprecedented in my economic lifetime. And we are sitting where we were back in 1999.

It’s not horrible at all......the problem is the entire country got hooked and high on 3% prime rates....2.75% mortgage rates and near 0% car rates......that is lunacy and should not happen again unless we go off a cliff economically.

Let’s put it this way.....the Fed has given itself plenty of tools again to respond to an economic crisis. This is all by design. And let’s not forget Covid really screwed them.....I think raises would have started back in 2020 if Covid never happened. I truly believe that.

 

[Gatorman]

It’s not horrible at all......the problem is the entire country got hooked and high on 3% prime rates....2.75% mortgage rates and near 0% car rates......that is lunacy and should not happen again unless we go off a cliff economically.

Let’s put it this way.....the Fed has given itself plenty of tools again to respond to an economic crisis. This is all by design. And let’s not forget Covid really screwed them.....I think raises would have started back in 2020 if Covid never happened. I truly believe that.

you are so right here. Even before COVID our former president with his tax break for the rich and blowing up the deficit was going to be a problem. Now add 2-3 covid stimulus packages, a global supply chain issue, and a new energy policy and things were going to get weird (and we are not even talking about our aging population or immigration gap...).

To be fair, I am surprised the US is doing as well as it is despite the global crap-show. Regardless of Political party in this case, there ain't no such thing as a free lunch. The US economy is still proving to be more resilient than the rest of the worlds', but that doesn't mean we will get through without taking some economic "lumps"

 

[Todem]

It’s not horrible at all......the problem is the entire country got hooked and high on 3% prime rates....2.75% mortgage rates and near 0% car rates......that is lunacy and should not happen again unless we go off a cliff economically.

Let’s put it this way.....the Fed has given itself plenty of tools again to respond to an economic crisis. This is all by design. And let’s not forget Covid really screwed them.....I think raises would have started back in 2020 if Covid never happened. I truly believe that.

you are so right here. Even before COVID our former president with his tax break for the rich and blowing up the deficit was going to be a problem. Now add 2-3 covid stimulus packages, a global supply chain issue, and a new energy policy and things were going to get weird (and we are not even talking about our aging population or immigration gap...).

To be fair, I am surprised the US is doing as well as it is despite the global crap-show. Regardless of Political party in this case, there ain't no such thing as a free lunch. The US economy is still proving to be more resilient than the rest of the worlds', but that doesn't mean we will get through without taking some economic "lumps"

Both Administrations dropped 9 Trillion dollars in Covid Stimulus into the economy. Our entire economy is 22 trillion dollars......think about that.

And here we are.

There is no pointing fingers here. It was a team effort.

Just so we are clear.....for as long as I have been alive and highly in tune with what goes on in the economy (that really started when I turned 20 and went on my own even though I started investing at age 17) our elected officials at any level of government, local, state, federal.....have one mandate.

To spend our money. That’s it. Spend spend spend. Without question they are the absolute worst money managers in the world and I am dumbfounded how we have not been able to reel some stuff in......it’s all about being elected....and staying in office. Every single one of them go in poor and come out rich.

EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM.

Rant over.

 

[Jayded]

I’m in healthcare and while we haven’t gotten hit quite yet, one favor definitely rears it’s head in our domain - government kickbacks stopped Jan 1 2023 for COVID programs.

Businesses in our domain got comfortable buying more or having that budget depending upon what side of the table you were on. Without that money coming in, any questionable sources or “maybe we can do without that” suddenly is scrutinized as it hasn’t been for a few years. If you aren’t highly or obviously valuable, you’re likely struggling or gone from a lot of your clients.

 

[Terminalxylem]

In your opinion, what percentage of people are struggling financially from poor decisions?

I would say roughly 20% for those reasons you mentioned.

To improve your ability to empathize, maybe imagine those struggling are in the 20%*? I mean, how often will you really know everything about one’s upbringing and current situation?

What’s the harm in giving people the benefit of the doubt? The alternative is pretty misanthropic imo.

* Your response is confusing. I think you meant 1 in 5 were struggling due to circumstances beyond their control. If you instead believe a minority are bad decision-makers, and the other 80% aren’t to blame, empathy ain’t your strong suit.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Most people vastly underestimate the amount that luck plays in their lives.

I would argue the exact opposite.

Help me out here. Less than 20% of the planet’s population lives in the developed world. Only 330 million, out of 8 BILLION people ended up in the US.

I’m not a betting man, but the odds of even being born in a place with opportunity, let alone having the resources and timing to take advantage of it, seem pretty slim.

 

[SFBayDuck]

Nobody's forcing anybody to live someplace with ****ty public schools.

Wait what? There are generations of people in this country that have been born in areas with "****ty public schools." They didn't make that choice. Their parents and grandparents were born there and got a poor education and little opportunity to advance economically enough to create the opportunity to move to somewhere with better schools. Could be urban inner city or large swaths of rural America, same story.

 

[TripItUp]

One of the biggest determinants for a person's wealth is their parent's wealth. Class mobility in the USA is by and large an illusion; exceptions do not make the rule.

Most people vastly underestimate the amount that luck plays in their lives.

I would argue the exact opposite.

Help me out here. Less than 20% of the planet’s population lives in the developed world. Only 330 million, out of 8 BILLION people ended up in the US.

I was speaking to Americans specifically...this discussion is about the USA.

 

[TripItUp]

To improve your ability to empathize, maybe imagine those struggling are in the 20%*? I mean, how often will you really know everything about one’s upbringing and current situation?

A) My "ability to empathize" is just fine.
B) I do empathize for the 20%, its about 60% of the country that wants to ***** and moan...that's the percentage I don't have empathy for.

What’s the harm in giving people the benefit of the doubt? The alternative is pretty misanthropic imo.

I don't know what this means. I do give a small percentage of the country the benefit of the doubt. Why would you assume that I don't?

* Your response is confusing. I think you meant 1 in 5 were struggling due to circumstances beyond their control. If you instead believe a minority are bad decision-makers, and the other 80% aren’t to blame, empathy ain’t your strong suit.

A) I thought I typed pretty plain English here. I would say 1 in 5 probably have circumstances so bad that they struggle to attain a middle class lifestyle. I do have empathy for them and support public assistance and even using my own tax dollars to help that bottom 20% even though I was once in that bottom 20%.

B) You don't know me well enough to make any statement about my ability to empathize

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Nobody's forcing anybody to live someplace with ****ty public schools.

Wait what? There are generations of people in this country that have been born in areas with "****ty public schools." They didn't make that choice. Their parents and grandparents were born there and got a poor education and little opportunity to advance economically enough to create the opportunity to move to somewhere with better schools. Could be urban inner city or large swaths of rural America, same story.

"Anybody" in that context meant anybody earning $80K a year.